Game Week Thread Week 14, 2023, Texas v Washington, College Football Playoff Edition

[HenryJames 66043]

6 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

I don't eat vegetables and don't care about ambiance.  

You're on the right board.

[89Horn 1514]

24 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Listening to Oregon fans, statistically speaking, UO is the greatest team in the history of the earth on both offense and defense, haha. 

What’s that you say?  And just statistically?  Get out of here.

- 2005 USC

[Red Five 40853]

42 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

I'm talking pure steak review.  Overall review, I don't know.  I don't eat vegetables and don't care about ambiance.  

[Leanderman 2275]

[sushihorn 3233]

5 hours ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

I'm a husky fan that does not wear rose colored glasses, and wanted to provide my honest husky perspective.  

ESPN has Texas at about 70% win probability vs 30% Washington.

And it's easy to see why:

•     Texas has much better talent overall
  •     Texas recruits at top 10 level every year, sometimes top 5
  •     Washington recruits at a top 25-35 level
•     Texas has way more depth
  •     Which is why UW struggled against weak teams.  They were sick and injured 
  •     If someone gets injured, Texas has 4 and 5 star players waiting in the wings, UW doesn't

Sark was easily our 2nd best recruiter this century.  Neuheisel recruited at a top 15 level.  Sark recruited at a top 15-25 level.  Chris Petersen recruited at a top 25-35 level.  We are just never going to compete for top 5 classes.   Unless Deboer wins a few national championships in a row.

Texas has a huge advantage on paper due to athletes on the team.  

The ONLY thing that Husky fans can truly pin their hopes on is this:  Under Deboer, the Huskies are 9-0 against top 25 teams.  And he's doing this with talent level outside of the top 25.  They are 3-0 vs Oregon who has top 5-10 talent.  UW really has no business beating that team.  

So Deboer and staff must be outcoaching a lot of their opponents with great gameplans and schemes.  Sark basically won 7-8 games per year with us and slightly better talent overall than what this coaching staff is working with now.  

But Sark has become a great coach since he left Washington too.  So 70-30 still seems about right to me and therefore I feel the line is about right.  Vegas thought the talent difference between Oregon and UW was worth 9.5 points.   

UO and Texas compete for the same athletes each year and are about equal in terms of talent on their rosters.  So I guess Vegas is finally giving a little respect to UW now, since they're now only 4 point underdogs haha.  

First, welcome to surly.

A lot of us are jaded on the issue of recruiting talent - legacy of Mack Brown. I find that data useful but limited. The rankings are based largely on measurables and statistical performance against overmatched HS kids.

When I look at what makes Washington go, measurables are important but far from a complete explanation. The outside receivers are the strength of the offense. They get credit for talent for their size and strength. But in terms of effectiveness, I think the catch radius, ability to recognize the coverage and find the gaps, making the catch by beating a defender and being on the same page as their QB are collectively more important. Size and strength are easy to measure. The other factors are not. If those factors are more important, any discussion of talent misses much of the point. 

[alphahydro 334]

I think Oregon was favored by 10 over UW because the computers liked Oregon's record more (esp against common opponents).  

Oregon beat Cal by 17 more points than UW did, they beat ASU by 28 more more points; they beat oregon state by 22 more points, they beat wazzu by 12 more points. Utah by 19 more points, and stanford by 27 more points (quick maths there, so I may be off). 

It's possible that key UW players were sick for the ASU/Cal/Wazzu/Oregon st./Utah/Stanford games.  Or the weather played a factor when UW played those teams but not when Oregon did.  Maybe UW tends to play down to its competition. Idk.  In any event, I think the margin-of-victory disparity against those teams is why the computers (and Vegas and human voters) liked Oregon so much.  It's also why the CFP committee had Oregon ahead of Texas for so long (that and Nix's dazzling completion %age)

It's also possible that Oregon beats up on less athletic teams, but loses their big competitive advantage when they play equally athletic teams.  That's my pet theory and explains why Oregon was in a dogfight against UW in both games.  Also explains why the one common opponent UW and Oregon beat by the ~ same margin (USC) was full of athletes.   (It's also why I only looked at top competition when trying to match up UW's record this season vs Texas'.)

FWIW, my terrible take is that UW is the most well-rounded team in the playoffs this year.  What I mean by that is even though they may not have super athletes everywhere, they don't have any glaring weaknesses.  It's harder to find a weakness or obvious potential issue with UW the way you can with UM, UT, or Bama.  On top of that, I think this is a great year for UW, because even though they are probably the least athletic team of the 3, IMO there's no obvious juggernaut team that completely outclasses UW's athletes in 1-2 phases of the game.  My gut is  - if a team beats UW convincingly (aside from turnovers, luck, etc), it's because they have some talent differential here or there and they are able to exploit it in a way that disrupts what UW tries to do on offense or allows them to break a few homerun plays against UW's defense.   (in a way that oregon couldn't).   but i don't really know shit, so....

[sushihorn 3233]

3 minutes ago, alphahydro said:

I think Oregon was favored by 10 over UW because the computers liked Oregon's record more (esp against common opponents).  

Oregon beat Cal by 17 more points than UW did, they beat ASU by 28 more more points; they beat oregon state by 22 more points, they beat wazzu by 12 more points. Utah by 19 more points, and stanford by 27 more points (quick maths there, so I may be off). 

It's possible that key UW players were sick for the ASU/Cal/Wazzu/Oregon st./Utah/Stanford games.  Or the weather played a factor when UW played those teams but not when Oregon did.  Maybe UW tends to play down to its competition. Idk.  In any event, I think the margin-of-victory disparity against those teams is why the computers (and Vegas and human voters) liked Oregon so much.  It's also why the CFP committee had Oregon ahead of Texas for so long (that and Nix's dazzling completion %age)

It's also possible that Oregon beats up on less athletic teams, but loses their big competitive advantage when they play equally athletic teams.  That's my pet theory and explains why Oregon was in a dogfight against UW in both games.  Also explains why the one common opponent UW and Oregon beat by the ~ same margin (USC) was full of athletes.   (It's also why I only looked at top competition when trying to match up UW's record this season vs Texas'.)

FWIW, my terrible take is that UW is the most well-rounded team in the playoffs this year.  What I mean by that is even though they may not have super athletes everywhere, they don't have any glaring weaknesses.  It's harder to find a weakness or obvious potential issue with UW the way you can with UM, UT, or Bama.  On top of that, I think this is a great year for UW, because even though they are probably the least athletic team of the 3, IMO there's no obvious juggernaut team that completely outclasses UW's athletes in 1-2 phases of the game.  My gut is  - if a team beats UW convincingly (aside from turnovers, luck, etc), it's because they have some talent differential here or there and they are able to exploit it in a way that disrupts what UW tries to do on offense or allows them to break a few homerun plays against UW's defense.   (in a way that oregon couldn't).   but i don't really know shit, so....

UW played defense to limit big plays in the conference CCG. That was also true to an extent when the played the Ducks and Beavers during the regular season. Inge played a more aggressive defense in the Apple Cup against a less talented WSU. 

[Dahobbs 17534]

28 minutes ago, alphahydro said:

I think Oregon was favored by 10 over UW because the computers liked Oregon's record more (esp against common opponents).  

Oregon beat Cal by 17 more points than UW did, they beat ASU by 28 more more points; they beat oregon state by 22 more points, they beat wazzu by 12 more points. Utah by 19 more points, and stanford by 27 more points (quick maths there, so I may be off). 

It's possible that key UW players were sick for the ASU/Cal/Wazzu/Oregon st./Utah/Stanford games.  Or the weather played a factor when UW played those teams but not when Oregon did.  Maybe UW tends to play down to its competition. Idk.  In any event, I think the margin-of-victory disparity against those teams is why the computers (and Vegas and human voters) liked Oregon so much.  It's also why the CFP committee had Oregon ahead of Texas for so long (that and Nix's dazzling completion %age)

It's also possible that Oregon beats up on less athletic teams, but loses their big competitive advantage when they play equally athletic teams.  That's my pet theory and explains why Oregon was in a dogfight against UW in both games.  Also explains why the one common opponent UW and Oregon beat by the ~ same margin (USC) was full of athletes.   (It's also why I only looked at top competition when trying to match up UW's record this season vs Texas'.)

FWIW, my terrible take is that UW is the most well-rounded team in the playoffs this year.  What I mean by that is even though they may not have super athletes everywhere, they don't have any glaring weaknesses.  It's harder to find a weakness or obvious potential issue with UW the way you can with UM, UT, or Bama.  On top of that, I think this is a great year for UW, because even though they are probably the least athletic team of the 3, IMO there's no obvious juggernaut team that completely outclasses UW's athletes in 1-2 phases of the game.  My gut is  - if a team beats UW convincingly (aside from turnovers, luck, etc), it's because they have some talent differential here or there and they are able to exploit it in a way that disrupts what UW tries to do on offense or allows them to break a few homerun plays against UW's defense.   (in a way that oregon couldn't).   but i don't really know shit, so....

If Texas' pass defense is a glaring weakness, then certainly so is UW's. I think it is a good team. I disagree that it is the most well rounded. That is, in my biased observation, Texas. 

[Warrrshington 148]

During that mid-season lull, UW was missing some key players. ASU got great inside pressure largely because Julius Buelow (OG) was out. His return really shored up our OL (USC, I believe). He also was out against the ducks in the first matchup.

Our veteran safeties (Asa Turner and Kam Fabiculanan) were also out. This really hurt the D, and their return has changed everything. 
 

Tuli Letuligasenoa (our best DT) was either out or limited during that stretch too. He’s the most important player on our D.

Jaylen McMillan got hurt in the 3rd game (against Michigan State) and wasn’t 100% until the conference championship game. Many of us used to argue that he’s perhaps better than Rome Odunze. His return makes the offense complete. 

We speculated since the first Oregon game that Penix perhaps cracked a rib. Nobody ever confirmed this but he certainly was very ill for a time and gutted out many of those victories.

Coach DeBoer is 103-11 lifetime and has coached many undefeated teams and won playoff championships. I think he was managing the team to peak at the right time and here we are. The guy has experience. He could care less about chasing stats (Oregon) and that fooled the talking heads/Vegas into all picking them. His teams have always performed best when the lights are brightest and that’s why we are all confident.

[Huskyfan1997 204]

Yeah, I can't imagine Oregon was that good in pass defense.  I think Herbstreit was saying they don't have the athletes to match up with UW receivers, but I also think he said nobody does.   

The most fascinating matchup to me in this game is the duel of the OC's.  Both guys were offered jobs by Nick Saban.  Still can't believe Grubb did not take that job offer after last year.  

Give both Sark and Grubb a month to prepare and it's fascinating to me who will prevail in that chess match.  If nothing else, it should be fun watching the creative play calling during the game.  But in another advantage to you guys, the Huskies are pretty terrible overall in tackling.  So Grubb by default has to call a better game than Sark in order to win.  

Regarding pressure on the QB's, we all know that is the key question.  UW ranks #5 in total sacks allowed, which is impressive with how often they pass.  Like many things with this UW team, it does not make much sense.  Our center is pretty grossly undersized, yet we are mostly a pocket passing team.  

[DanTheHorn 4922]

6 hours ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Well, the point was that you guys have 4 and 5 star players subbing in for injuries, which seems like a pretty decisive advantage.  And it showed in UW's games when they had players out or sick.  That was the whole point of the post.  

Great coaching and schemes can make NFL draft picks.  Doesn't equal NFL talent though.  Look at John Ross and Jake Locker.  Both top 10 picks but did absolutely nothing in the NFL.  Not sure why you guys are always so confrontational to people trying to add some insight.  

But yes, players can be developed to be better than their star ratings, which is all subjective anyway.  NFL talent is directly correlated to the play style system fits.   I was just saying raw athlete talent seems to be decidedly in your favor, which is especially important in injury and depth situations.  

Well we do have a 3* that won the Outland trophy.

[Bevo14 8304]

On 12/9/2023 at 8:50 PM, Tex Pete said:

People’s obsession is weird. Fuck ‘em. 

As long as it gets noticed by Sweat and Murphy I'm all for it. 

[alphahydro 334]

5 hours ago, sushihorn said:

UW played defense to limit big plays in the conference CCG. That was also true to an extent when the played the Ducks and Beavers during the regular season. Inge played a more aggressive defense in the Apple Cup against a less talented WSU. 

I didn't watch a lot of Oregon this season, but that approach makes sense to me.  

By the way, a few of the UW games are online for anyone who wants to watch: 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhF872NfGSk Pac 12 championship

 Arizona game. 

[alphahydro 334]

5 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

If Texas' pass defense is a glaring weakness, then certainly so is UW's. I think it is a good team. I disagree that it is the most well rounded. That is, in my biased observation, Texas. 

that's fair.  well-rounded doesn't mean best.  UW could be an 8.0-8.5 at every position group and Alabama could be 9s and a 7.5.  You might pick Bama in that head-to-head but think that UW was more well rounded.

I think most of us agree that Texas' secondary hasn't been the strength of the team.  I think the best counter-argument is that Texas' pass defense isn't as bad as the pass yardage stat suggests.  Teams can't run at all, so they abandon the run and start chucking the ball up, leading to a bunch of pass yards.  But when you look at opponent passer rating and yards per pass, Texas is actually respectable (about 30th in the country).  Of course, if teams can't run the ball, should be easier to shut down the pass, and Texas hasn't really faced a ton of elite passing attacks this season. 

[Jiggy-Z 3432]

11 hours ago, alphahydro said:

I think Oregon was favored by 10 over UW because the computers liked Oregon's record more (esp against common opponents).  

Oregon beat Cal by 17 more points than UW did, they beat ASU by 28 more more points; they beat oregon state by 22 more points, they beat wazzu by 12 more points. Utah by 19 more points, and stanford by 27 more points (quick maths there, so I may be off). 

It's possible that key UW players were sick for the ASU/Cal/Wazzu/Oregon st./Utah/Stanford games.  Or the weather played a factor when UW played those teams but not when Oregon did.  Maybe UW tends to play down to its competition. Idk.  In any event, I think the margin-of-victory disparity against those teams is why the computers (and Vegas and human voters) liked Oregon so much.  It's also why the CFP committee had Oregon ahead of Texas for so long (that and Nix's dazzling completion %age)

It's also possible that Oregon beats up on less athletic teams, but loses their big competitive advantage when they play equally athletic teams.  That's my pet theory and explains why Oregon was in a dogfight against UW in both games.  Also explains why the one common opponent UW and Oregon beat by the ~ same margin (USC) was full of athletes.   (It's also why I only looked at top competition when trying to match up UW's record this season vs Texas'.)

FWIW, my terrible take is that UW is the most well-rounded team in the playoffs this year.  What I mean by that is even though they may not have super athletes everywhere, they don't have any glaring weaknesses.  It's harder to find a weakness or obvious potential issue with UW the way you can with UM, UT, or Bama.  On top of that, I think this is a great year for UW, because even though they are probably the least athletic team of the 3, IMO there's no obvious juggernaut team that completely outclasses UW's athletes in 1-2 phases of the game.  My gut is  - if a team beats UW convincingly (aside from turnovers, luck, etc), it's because they have some talent differential here or there and they are able to exploit it in a way that disrupts what UW tries to do on offense or allows them to break a few homerun plays against UW's defense.   (in a way that oregon couldn't).   but i don't really know shit, so....

It was also interesting to compare  the two games they played against each other. Looking at the box score, one would have thought Oregon dominated the first game. Oregon chewed up a lot of time and yds on a couple of drives where they had chip shot fgs but instead went for it on 4th down and failed.

Take the points.

This game will be scored in the upper 20s or low 30s by each team and the Victor will prevail by 3 or 4 pts.

[Duane Moore 5237]

6 hours ago, alphahydro said:

Texas hasn't really faced a ton of elite passing attacks this season.

This is really the part that concerns me the most about this game. There just weren’t a lot of strong passing games in the B12 this year, and the best one was our only loss. 

[Huskyfan1997 204]

It's funny how much past experiences cause PTSD for each fanbase.  I didn't know that recruiting talent was such a sore subject with UT fans.  

But from the UW perspective, it's pretty much the exact opposite.  Chris Petersen took mostly Sark's recruits in 2016 to the CFP playoff.  Alabama's athletes clearly outclassed UW that year and we had no chance in that playoff.  Petersen could not parlay that appearance into anything better than a top 25 recruiting class the next year.  

Petersen saw the writing on the wall that he'd never be able to recruit like Alabama at UW, so he retired.  Why deal with the Playoff expectations every year when you can't recruit the athletes to compete if you get there.  

Admittedly though, we fans are way more optimistic about having a puncher's chance this year.  Even though we still don't have the same level of talent of other playoff teams, we have explosive and innovative abilities to score, unlike that 2016 team. 

[Codaxx 5732]

6 hours ago, alphahydro said:

that's fair.  well-rounded doesn't mean best.  UW could be an 8.0-8.5 at every position group and Alabama could be 9s and a 7.5.  You might pick Bama in that head-to-head but think that UW was more well rounded.

I think most of us agree that Texas' secondary hasn't been the strength of the team.  I think the best counter-argument is that Texas' pass defense isn't as bad as the pass yardage stat suggests.  Teams can't run at all, so they abandon the run and start chucking the ball up, leading to a bunch of pass yards.  But when you look at opponent passer rating and yards per pass, Texas is actually respectable (about 30th in the country).  Of course, if teams can't run the ball, should be easier to shut down the pass, and Texas hasn't really faced a ton of elite passing attacks this season. 

Here are the 2 passing defenses

	Games	ATT	Comp	PCt	Yards	Yards/Att	TD	Int	Rating
Washington	13	521	311	59.7	3421	6.6	22	16	122.64
Texas	13	464	278	59.9	3131	6.7	19	16	123.2

 

They are almost identical.

 

I would disagree on well rounded. I think Michigan is the most complete team in these playoffs. 

Edited December 12, 2023 by Codaxx

[Josef Pwag 1738]

13 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Even though we still don't have the same level of talent of other playoff teams, we have explosive and innovative abilities to score, unlike that 2016 team. 

I know Penix is in his 6th year of college ball. In this Washington team like TCU last year, a one hit wonder that is loaded up on Covid-year guys, or do you think the Huskies will consistently be in the 12-team playoff? 

[Huskyfan1997 204]

Our team is loaded with 5th and 6th year guys.  So yeah, I expect a big drop off. 

We will see how good the coaching staff is next year if they don't find a portal QB at the same level as Penix.  I think Penix was rated as the 11th best QB in the portal that year.  We were 4-8 before Penix and this coaching staff.  So maybe they find a way. 

But even now, if you follow Husky recruiting, even with our success of the last 2 years, we are not in the running for the best portal players.  It's always Oregon, Texas, USC, Michigan, and the SEC schools.  I think Will Rogers is the best QB we are in the running for and he's also outside the top 10 QB portal rankings.  

[Alien Octopus 516]

My outlook for this game is all about our DLine taking away long passes and the run. UT has played lesser competition in the past two games so perhaps I am a bit skewed on what our Defense will accomplish. UW will certainly hit some long shots here and there, but I do not see them stopping our Defensive penetration for most of the game. Our new found intermediate attack w Sanders/Whittington/Mitchell which will lead to big runs and long shots. Washington tackling is not always great.

I have watched several Washington games as my football wife grew up in N Washington, and played for Boise, so he has always been a fan and wants to make excuses on why Boise got ape raped earlier this year. Fun fact, he was team mates with PK who I got to meet and scored us UH tix.

Edited December 12, 2023 by Alien Octopus

[troph 24784]

Y’all need to learn how to reverse sear a steak and you’ll never be tempted to go to an over priced steakhouse again.

[troph 24784]

38 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Our team is loaded with 5th and 6th year guys.  So yeah, I expect a big drop off. 

We will see how good the coaching staff is next year if they don't find a portal QB at the same level as Penix.  I think Penix was rated as the 11th best QB in the portal that year.  We were 4-8 before Penix and this coaching staff.  So maybe they find a way. 

But even now, if you follow Husky recruiting, even with our success of the last 2 years, we are not in the running for the best portal players.  It's always Oregon, Texas, USC, Michigan, and the SEC schools.  I think Will Rogers is the best QB we are in the running for and he's also outside the top 10 QB portal rankings.  

I had asked a question for the WA lurkers a few days back about this and what’s next for WA - DeBoer is clearly a top notch coach but with very limited big time program experience yet 11-2 / 12-0 in his FIRST two seasons. That’s unheard of. He wasn’t really tested at Souix Falls they are a great program yet he elevated them too with 3 of their 4 national titles. Awesome, awesome pick up. I’m super interested to see what’s next at WA with him though. Can he sustain this? Nothing says he can’t, but man it seems like a tall order and will require some key wins in recruiting and the portal. WA gets plenty of 4 stars so it’s entirely possible. 

Edited December 12, 2023 by troph

[The Original Greaser Bob 2830]

Most brutal drop in college football this year.  Look at the score and the time left. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t6sBFv48kcY

Edited December 12, 2023 by The Original Greaser Bob

[Laga4 1270]

16 hours ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

 I don't eat vegetables and don't care about ambiance.  

Don't be surprised if you hear from the Surly green bean mafia.

[troph 24784]

I don’t like the ESPN odds. Texas is not a 70% chance to win if that’s what they say. But I think if Texas plays a complete game, Horns win. Texas has done that only 3 times this year. That’s the issue. 

[Huskyfan1997 204]

That was a brutal drop by Stanford.  You guys will probably disagree, but I think the Pac-12 cellar can still play decently better than most conference's cellar dwellers.  Just ask Deion Sanders.  Darlings of the nation, started 4-0 and winless against Pac-12 teams.  

And they supposedly have a future top 10 NFL Draft Pick at QB, which I find hard to believe.  But still see it projected everywhere on draft boards.  

Edited December 12, 2023 by Huskyfan1997

[troph 24784]

No one will believe Iowa state, TCU and Kansas state and Kansas are very good either. If you’ve got a target on your back, cellar dwellers (except the extreme worst) can rise up. 

Edited December 12, 2023 by troph

[Huskyfan1997 204]

Not sure how long we can keep Deboer.  There is no doubt he will get a ton of job offers and money thrown at him. 

He's from the Michigan area, so fans are most worried about Harbaugh leaving. 

Frankly, if Deboer leaves us, I hope it's for the NFL.  I'd love to see what he can do there.  He's succeeded at every level and it'd be cool to see a guy go from winning at Sioux Falls to winning in the NFL.  

[Codaxx 5732]

16 minutes ago, troph said:

I don’t like the ESPN odds. Texas is not a 70% chance to win if that’s what they say. But I think if Texas plays a complete game, Horns win. Texas has done that only 3 times this year. That’s the issue. 

Moneylien is Texas -185 and Washington +150.. Take out the vig and its something like Texas has a 62% chance to win. 

[Texasborn91 935]

6 minutes ago, troph said:

I don’t like the ESPN odds. Texas is not a 70% chance to win if that’s what they say. But I think if Texas plays a complete game, Horns win. Texas has done that only 3 times this year. That’s the issue. 

Texas gives up a lot of passing yards but not many points…. If Washington can’t take advantage of that matchup in a big way they are in trouble. We will have the best D line they have seen this year and we are #1 in the country on 3rd down defense…. 
 

A big factor for me that I don’t think we are talking about is Texas putting pressure on their offense by putting points on the board. If defense comes out and makes some big stops/creates a TO we have to be merciless and make them pay. 

[Huskyfan1997 204]

Texas may very well stop the Husky offense.  It's all about specific matchups.  But I wouldn't make the assumption based on rankings.  Oregon came in with a top 5 3rd down defense and a top 3 3rd down offense. 

In the pac-12 championship game:  

UO 3rd down offense:  3 for 10

UW 3rd down offense:  10 for 15

I fully expect that UT will likely go up multiple scores on UW at some point.  The only reason why I think we have a punchers chance now is that this team can score faster than any previous Husky team ever.  It took only 2 plays for them to score on Oregon with 2 minutes left in their first game this year.  

[BurntOrange&White 39931]

The key as always is stopping the run. If we force Penix to throw 40+ times that is a better recipe for us. The more he has to pass the better for us as silly as that sounds. 

[ztejas 43418]

13 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

FWIW, my terrible take is that UW is the most well-rounded team in the playoffs this year.  What I mean by that is even though they may not have super athletes everywhere, they don't have any glaring weaknesses.  It's harder to find a weakness or obvious potential issue with UW the way you can with UM, UT, or Bama. 

I don't agree with that at all. Offensively Texas is the most complete or well-rounded team. Mich is run heavy, granted some of that is because they haven't had to throw the ball a lot. Bama is run heavy with meh QB play, UW is pass heavy with very good QB play. 

Bama and Mich are solid on both sides of the ball on D. Texas is okay to good against the pass (when you factor in INTs) and elite against the run. UW is kind of okay against both. 

Washington is hard to figure because the team that beat Oregon twice looks as good as anyone in the country, but the team they were against the rest of their schedule doesn't really line up with what we've seen from the other CFP teams. 

[Codaxx 5732]

14 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Texas may very well stop the Husky offense.  It's all about specific matchups.  But I wouldn't make the assumption based on rankings.  Oregon came in with a top 5 3rd down defense and a top 3 3rd down offense. 

In the pac-12 championship game:  

UO 3rd down offense:  3 for 10

UW 3rd down offense:  10 for 15

I fully expect that UT will likely go up multiple scores on UW at some point.  The only reason why I think we have a punchers chance now is that this team can score faster than any previous Husky team ever.  It took only 2 plays for them to score on Oregon with 2 minutes left in their first game this year.  

Washington is elite on offense. They have a NFL QB and 3 NFL Wrs, They have arguably the best set of skill players in the playoffs. The OL isnt a mauling, scary OL like Michigan, but they dont give up sacks. I highly doubt that Texas stops Washington. I would be very happy, if Texas held Washington to 24 pts.

[Huskyfan1997 204]

Stopping the run is definitely conventional wisdom, but this husky team seems to defy logic.  

At the beginning of the year when they were healthy, they avoided running the ball like I avoid vegetables.  

But when Penix was struggling (maybe due to rib injury), they started implementing the run game and got decently good at it in a short period of time, but it'd definitely not their strong suit.   

So, my limited brain would tend to think that the real key is focusing on preventing the pass game somehow and forcing them to run.  They can't score nearly as fast then.  

[Codaxx 5732]

4 minutes ago, ztejas said:

I don't agree with that at all. Offensively Texas is the most complete or well-rounded team. Mich is run heavy, granted some of that is because they haven't had to throw the ball a lot. Bama is run heavy with meh QB play, UW is pass heavy with very good QB play. 

Bama and Mich are solid on both sides of the ball on D. Texas is okay to good against the pass (when you factor in INTs) and elite against the run. UW is kind of okay against both. 

Washington is hard to figure because the team that beat Oregon twice looks as good as anyone in the country, but the team they were against the rest of their schedule doesn't really line up with what we've seen from the other CFP teams. 

Offensively, Washington and Texas are very similar. Both are big play offenses. Both are reliant on the passing game. Washington pass game is almost a perfect barbell. They throw a ton short and long. 

[Huskyfan1997 204]

Also keep in mind that UW pass game is not like receivers are running wide open all the time.  Basically Penix is good at throwing into congestion but placing it where his receivers have the better chance of catching it.  And the receivers are really good at contested catches.  

I think the actual stats are that they catch 70% of contested passes (or so called 50/50 passes)

I guess that's the sort of thing that works until it doesn't.  All of the remaining playoff teams have the athletes to make it not work.  

[Atticus 3973]

15 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Stopping the run is definitely conventional wisdom, but this husky team seems to defy logic.  

At the beginning of the year when they were healthy, they avoided running the ball like I avoid vegetables.  

But when Penix was struggling (maybe due to rib injury), they started implementing the run game and got decently good at it in a short period of time, but it'd definitely not their strong suit.   

So, my limited brain would tend to think that the real key is focusing on preventing the pass game somehow and forcing them to run.  They can't score nearly as fast then.  

You can only do so much to stop the pass without pressure.

There's a saying that three things can happen when pass the ball, and two of those things are bad.

Running the ball effectively keeps the clock moving, helps the offense get into a rhythm, and wears the defense out over time.

Bodyblows vs haymakers.

[Dahobbs 17534]

5 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Also keep in mind that UW pass game is not like receivers are running wide open all the time.  Basically Penix is good at throwing into congestion but placing it where his receivers have the better chance of catching it.  And the receivers are really good at contested catches.  

I think the actual stats are that they catch 70% of contested passes (or so called 50/50 passes)

I guess that's the sort of thing that works until it doesn't.  All of the remaining playoff teams have the athletes to make it not work.  

That's ok. It feels like teams catch 100% of contested balls against us anyway. 

[CoachTex 2623]

Shit, with all the steak talk I thought it was Iowa Steak and Kansas Steak.

[Atticus 3973]

They're young, competitive, and talented. They'll get better at it as they continue to get in those situations.

Edited December 12, 2023 by Atticus

[Codaxx 5732]

3 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Also keep in mind that UW pass game is not like receivers are running wide open all the time.  Basically Penix is good at throwing into congestion but placing it where his receivers have the better chance of catching it.  And the receivers are really good at contested catches.  

I think the actual stats are that they catch 70% of contested passes (or so called 50/50 passes)

I guess that's the sort of thing that works until it doesn't.  All of the remaining playoff teams have the athletes to make it not work.  

Washington WR have an amazing catch radius. Odunze is 1 of the best 50/50 ball WRs in the nation and the others are also very good. The key for both defenses is pretty similar. The team that can make the opposing QB uncomfortable will likely win this game. That means getting pressure. Just as important is taking away the #1 option. Both QBs will dice you up, if you let them throw to their #1 option. Make them hold the ball and go through progressions and you have a chance. Both QBs have big arms and can get sloppy with their footwork (throwing off their backfoot). 

[Codaxx 5732]

3 minutes ago, Atticus said:

You can only do so much to stop the pass without pressure.

There's a saying that three things can happen when pass the ball, and two of those things are bad.

Running the ball effectively keeps the clock moving, helps the offense get into a rhythm, and wears the defense out over time.

Bodyblows vs haymakers.

Both teams are pass first. They run the ball effectively, because the get advantageous numbers. The key is stopping the run with light to honest boxes. If you have to bring a safety down to help with the run, you are toast. 

[ztejas 43418]

13 hours ago, Warrrshington said:

During that mid-season lull, UW was missing some key players. ASU got great inside pressure largely because Julius Buelow (OG) was out. His return really shored up our OL (USC, I believe). He also was out against the ducks in the first matchup.

Our veteran safeties (Asa Turner and Kam Fabiculanan) were also out. This really hurt the D, and their return has changed everything. 
 

Tuli Letuligasenoa (our best DT) was either out or limited during that stretch too. He’s the most important player on our D.

Jaylen McMillan got hurt in the 3rd game (against Michigan State) and wasn’t 100% until the conference championship game. Many of us used to argue that he’s perhaps better than Rome Odunze. His return makes the offense complete. 

We speculated since the first Oregon game that Penix perhaps cracked a rib. Nobody ever confirmed this but he certainly was very ill for a time and gutted out many of those victories.

Should we run through all of the Texas injuries from this season for you?

[Dahobbs 17534]

26 minutes ago, ztejas said:

I don't agree with that at all. Offensively Texas is the most complete or well-rounded team. Mich is run heavy, granted some of that is because they haven't had to throw the ball a lot. Bama is run heavy with meh QB play, UW is pass heavy with very good QB play. 

Bama and Mich are solid on both sides of the ball on D. Texas is okay to good against the pass (when you factor in INTs) and elite against the run. UW is kind of okay against both. 

Washington is hard to figure because the team that beat Oregon twice looks as good as anyone in the country, but the team they were against the rest of their schedule doesn't really line up with what we've seen from the other CFP teams. 

You quoted as if that were my post, but, just to be clear, it was not. I agree with your take. However, I'll concede to @Codaxx that Michigan may be the most complete team. The only thing I'm really skeptical with Michigan is its offense. It scores points similar to Texas, but it has 1,200 less yards of offense and averages half a yard less per play. I'd like to see yards per possession to see if this is mainly a pace of play difference or something else. 

[Codaxx 5732]

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

You quoted as if that were my post, but, just to be clear, it was not. I agree with your take. However, I'll concede to @Codaxx that Michigan may be the most complete team. The only thing I'm really skeptical with Michigan is its offense. It scores points similar to Texas, but it has 1,200 less yards of offense and averages half a yard less per play. I'd like to see yards per possession to see if this is mainly a pace of play difference or something else. 

MIchigan has a NFL QB. He was also banged up later in the year.  They may lack at WR, but have excellent TEs. Michigan has not needed to throw the ball. McCarthy is completed 74% of his pass for 9.2 yards per with almost a 5 to 1 TD/int ratio. 

[Atticus 3973]

2 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

Both teams are pass first. They run the ball effectively, because the get advantageous numbers. The key is stopping the run with light to honest boxes. If you have to bring a safety down to help with the run, you are toast. 

The point of my post was to express the value in stopping the run. I agree that Texas throws to open the pass. We also create explosive passing plays from heavier personnel packages and formations which makes it really difficult to stop both.

[Codaxx 5732]

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

You quoted as if that were my post, but, just to be clear, it was not. I agree with your take. However, I'll concede to @Codaxx that Michigan may be the most complete team. The only thing I'm really skeptical with Michigan is its offense. It scores points similar to Texas, but it has 1,200 less yards of offense and averages half a yard less per play. I'd like to see yards per possession to see if this is mainly a pace of play difference or something else. 

MIchigan has a NFL QB. He was also banged up later in the year.  They may lack at WR, but have excellent TEs. Michigan has not needed to throw the ball. McCarthy is completed 74% of his pass for 9.2 yards per with almost a 5 to 1 TD/int ratio. 

[troph 24784]

46 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Stopping the run is definitely conventional wisdom, but this husky team seems to defy logic.  

At the beginning of the year when they were healthy, they avoided running the ball like I avoid vegetables.  

But when Penix was struggling (maybe due to rib injury), they started implementing the run game and got decently good at it in a short period of time, but it'd definitely not their strong suit.   

So, my limited brain would tend to think that the real key is focusing on preventing the pass game somehow and forcing them to run.  They can't score nearly as fast then.  

I don't see a scenario where Texas stops the pass to force the run. It's more likely that the strategy (not necessarily the outcome) is something like Texas stops the run (with 6 up front like we've done all year), WA abandons it mostly and Texas then isolates the passing game forcing Penix in third and longs all night long and gets pressure preventing the long ball and making the intermediate ball difficult causing 2-3 sacks, a turnover and a couple of stops. That is how Texas holds WA to 24.  There is no universe where I see Texas stopping the pass to make WA run, it's just not how this defense is built and it's not what Texas has done all year.

I truly think the only way Texas wins is to put more pressure on the WA offense to make plays and that means more pressure on Penix. score points, stop the run, pin your ears back and pressure him while he's trying to make plays. Everyone makes mistakes. can we force him to make just one more... dunno but I think that's the game.

Edited December 12, 2023 by troph