Game Week Thread Week 14, 2023, Texas v Washington, College Football Playoff Edition

[troph 24912]

20 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Should we run through all of the Texas injuries from this season for you?

yeah but South Austin's mom made it through the season so there's that.

[troph 24912]

1 hour ago, Codaxx said:

Moneylien is Texas -185 and Washington +150.. Take out the vig and its something like Texas has a 62% chance to win. 

I get it, I don't like it. I think the variables are too extreme. someone went through their view on it a while back but Texas blow out, WA blow out (blow out meaning more than two scores so 14-17 point spread) and a nail bitter either way are all in play here.  I'll consider it a toss up until the game is out of reach or over.

[sushihorn 3233]

44 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

Offensively, Washington and Texas are very similar. Both are big play offenses. Both are reliant on the passing game. Washington pass game is almost a perfect barbell. They throw a ton short and long. 

The two teams get there in very different ways. Washington completes a lot of deep and intermediate passes, often to covered WRs. Texas throws mostly short: behind the LOS and within 10 yards of it. The speed creates a ton of YAC. Ewers has really improved at quick recognition and hitting moving receivers in stride so they can leverage defenders’ angles. 

[ztejas 43546]

45 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

Offensively, Washington and Texas are very similar. Both are big play offenses. Both are reliant on the passing game. Washington pass game is almost a perfect barbell. They throw a ton short and long. 

 

21 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

Both teams are pass first. They run the ball effectively, because the get advantageous numbers. The key is stopping the run with light to honest boxes. If you have to bring a safety down to help with the run, you are toast. 

I'm not sure where you're getting this from. Texas and UW have very different pass/run distribution. 

Plays per game Washington is 37/28 pass/run for 344 and 125 yards per game. 

Texas is 33/38 for 287 and 189.

 

Fun, tangentially-related fact: Quinn had a higher passer rating than Penix on the season.

[Atticus 3994]

8 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

The two teams get there in very different ways. Washington completes a lot of deep and intermediate passes, often to covered WRs. Texas throws mostly short: behind the LOS and within 10 yards of it. The speed creates a ton of YAC. Ewers has really improved at quick recognition and hitting moving receivers in stride so they can leverage defenders’ angles. 

Washington actually throws a ton of quick game passes in the 0-9 yard range. 

[Codaxx 5884]

Just now, ztejas said:

 

I'm not sure where you're getting this from. Texas and UW have very different pass/run distribution. 

Plays per game Washington is 37/28 pass/run for 344 and 125 yards per game. 

Texas is 33/38 for 287 and 189.

 

Fun, tangentially-related fact: Quinn had a higher passer rating than Penix on the season.

Texas passes to open up the run. Sark has been quite open about that. Texas is not a team that just runs people over. Red Zone struggles are good evidence of that. Texas is more committed to finishing games with the run, than Washington. 

[sushihorn 3233]

2 minutes ago, Atticus said:

Washington actually throws a ton of quick game passes in the 0-9 yard range. 

You are correct. I should have qualified that statement with this being the source of the big plays. 

[Warrrshington 148]

3 hours ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

It's funny how much past experiences cause PTSD for each fanbase.  I didn't know that recruiting talent was such a sore subject with UT fans.  

But from the UW perspective, it's pretty much the exact opposite.  Chris Petersen took mostly Sark's recruits in 2016 to the CFP playoff.  Alabama's athletes clearly outclassed UW that year and we had no chance in that playoff.  Petersen could not parlay that appearance into anything better than a top 25 recruiting class the next year.  

Petersen saw the writing on the wall that he'd never be able to recruit like Alabama at UW, so he retired.  Why deal with the Playoff expectations every year when you can't recruit the athletes to compete if you get there.  

Admittedly though, we fans are way more optimistic about having a puncher's chance this year.  Even though we still don't have the same level of talent of other playoff teams, we have explosive and innovative abilities to score, unlike that 2016 team. 

Disagree. Petersen’s first class, though lacking in stars, was a killer. Gaines, Vita, Dissly, Sample, Sidney Jones, Budda Baker, Dante Pettis. This idea that sark was such a better recruiter is simply not true. When he leveled up with Tosh, Sirmon, and Wilcox the recruiting got pretty good.

Alabama didn’t outclass us. That UW team had NFL talent at nearly every position. They exploited our one or two weaknesses (6’1, 270 true frosh OG), Joe Mathis injured at BUCK, and Browning threw that stupid pick 6 right before half. 
 

Petersen’s problem was he would get tight in the big games and the team took on his personality. DeBoer is a level up of Petersen because he is always calm and encourages his players to let it rip.

[troph 24912]

56 minutes ago, Atticus said:

Washington actually throws a ton of quick game passes in the 0-9 yard range. 

trade behind the LOS for more deep balls for WA and less deep balls for more behind the LOS and you have the difference between the two. there's a distribution of pass attempts by teams in the CFP and that's the difference between TX and WA.

[Nivek 16992]

delete

Edited December 12, 2023 by Nivek

[The Dog 44160]

2 hours ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Also keep in mind that UW pass game is not like receivers are running wide open all the time.  Basically Penix is good at throwing into congestion but placing it where his receivers have the better chance of catching it.  And the receivers are really good at contested catches.  

I think the actual stats are that they catch 70% of contested passes (or so called 50/50 passes)

I guess that's the sort of thing that works until it doesn't.  All of the remaining playoff teams have the athletes to make it not work.  

You're in luck because our DBs just watch the WR catch the ball on those. 

When they aren't just running over them and giving a flag.

That's the matchup that worries me the most. 

1 hour ago, Codaxx said:

MIchigan has a NFL QB. He was also banged up later in the year.  They may lack at WR, but have excellent TEs. Michigan has not needed to throw the ball. McCarthy is completed 74% of his pass for 9.2 yards per with almost a 5 to 1 TD/int ratio. 

I think McCarthy is a function of the talent around him. He throws into coverage a lot and has a really slow release. 

[Codaxx 5884]

18 minutes ago, troph said:

trade behind the LOS for more deep balls for WA and less deep balls for more behind the LOS and you have the difference between the two. there's a distribution of pass attempts by teams in the CFP and that's the difference between TX and WA.

Washington throws a lot of quick game and a ton of deep balls. Texas throws a ton of shot passes and more intermediate. Texas has a more developed screen game from my limited viewing.  My point was both are pass first, big play offenses. You start to creep up on the short game and the ball will go over your head. Key is to be able to stop the run with honest boxes. If you cant, it is near impossible to stop either offense (barring a bad day from the QB/penalties). You will have to disguise and mix coverages. Both QBs will kill you, if they can just sit back and hit their 1st option. 

[troph 24912]

5 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

Washington throws a lot of quick game and a ton of deep balls. Texas throws a ton of shot passes and more intermediate. Texas has a more developed screen game from my limited viewing.  My point was both are pass first, big play offenses. You start to creep up on the short game and the ball will go over your head. Key is to be able to stop the run with honest boxes. If you cant, it is near impossible to stop either offense (barring a bad day from the QB/penalties). You will have to disguise and mix coverages. Both QBs will kill you, if they can just sit back and hit their 1st option. 

I don't think I was saying anything different.

[Bodacious Bevo 3602]

42 minutes ago, Warrrshington said:

Disagree. Petersen’s first class, though lacking in stars, was a killer. Gaines, Vita, Dissly, Sample, Sidney Jones, Budda Baker, Dante Pettis. This idea that sark was such a better recruiter is simply not true. When he leveled up with Tosh, Sirmon, and Wilcox the recruiting got pretty good.

Alabama didn’t outclass us. That UW team had NFL talent at nearly every position. They exploited our one or two weaknesses (6’1, 270 true frosh OG), Joe Mathis injured at BUCK, and Browning threw that stupid pick 6 right before half. 
 

Petersen’s problem was he would get tight in the big games and the team took on his personality. DeBoer is a level up of Petersen because he is always calm and encourages his players to let it rip.

Seems premature to say DeBoer is a level up of Peterson 

[Beau Vine 54466]

22 hours ago, Nivek said:

I am going to try to be nice.  But this is stupid.  Talent is so often overrated by fans and opposing fans.  It is talked about so that people can pretend to "do more with less" and puff up their school's coaching staff.    If you are putting guys in the league, you have a talented roster.  If you are not, you don't. 

Are you telling me that Penix is *NOT* still the 548th best player in the country?

[troph 24912]

23 minutes ago, Bodacious Bevo said:

Seems premature to say DeBoer is a level up of Peterson 

not sure it is, he's 23-2 in two seasons and in the CFP. before that he was a 3 time national champ in division 2 and elevated that program from where it was.  He's done nothing but win. The idea that he will somehow falter now is folly. I think he is likely to leave. But moving to the Big 10 can be nothing but good for WA and their prospects of keeping him.  I think the only open question is how he does replacing Penix. If he can keep the QB talent there, he's going to be just fine.

[Dahobbs 17692]

3 minutes ago, troph said:

not sure it is, he's 23-2 in two seasons and in the CFP. before that he was a 3 time national champ in division 2 and elevated that program from where it was.  He's done nothing but win. The idea that he will somehow falter now is folly. I think he is likely to leave. But moving to the Big 10 can be nothing but good for WA and their prospects of keeping him.  I think the only open question is how he does replacing Penix. If he can keep the QB talent there, he's going to be just fine.

It isn't clear how he'll handle recruiting at a big time program yet. He has made some comments regarding not playing that much into NIL or the transfer portal that would give me some cause for concern were I a Husky fan. 

[Nivek 16992]

51 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Are you telling me that Penix is *NOT* still the 548th best player in the country?

To be fair, he did reach the CFP before he turned 40.  

[Pig Bellmont 8739]

31 minutes ago, troph said:

not sure it is, he's 23-2 in two seasons

And I can’t think of any other examples of coaches getting outsized credit on the basis of amazing qb play…

Cam Newton, Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow

Maybe Washington’s coach is the real deal, but he’s going to have to prove it when Penix is gone

[BurntOrange&White 40044]

2 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

And I can’t think of any other examples of coaches getting outsized credit on the basis of amazing qb play…

Cam Newton, Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow

Maybe Washington’s coach is the real deal, but he’s going to have to prove it when Penix is gone

Dude has only lost 11 games in his career and has multiple national titles at lower level. He’s the real deal. 

[Codaxx 5884]

12 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

And I can’t think of any other examples of coaches getting outsized credit on the basis of amazing qb play…

Cam Newton, Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow

Maybe Washington’s coach is the real deal, but he’s going to have to prove it when Penix is gone

Keep in mind I think Penix has been in the system for 5-6 years, so he has had a QB at Washington that has run the system longer than 80% of NFL QBs (that estimate is probably low)

Edited December 12, 2023 by Codaxx

[The Dog 44160]

10 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Dude has only lost 11 games in his career and has multiple national titles at lower level. He’s the real deal. 

Definitely a great coach but even the UW visitors have talked about this being a senior-laden team:

https://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-depth-charts/depth-chart/washington/92453

Not only a lot of seniors but many RS JRs. 

The question is can he sustain it? This isn't NAIA.

[ztejas 43546]

Sonny Dykes went 13-2 last year. 

Just gonna throw that out there. 

(I do think DeBoer is a good coach)

[Warrrshington 148]

Jake Haener sucked at UW and DeBoer made him a fringe heisman candidate at Fresno. This shit ain’t complicated🤣

[Valmy77 13273]

Just now, Warrrshington said:

Jake Haener sucked at UW and DeBoer made him a fringe heisman candidate at Fresno. This shit ain’t complicated🤣

It is complicated. The list of coaches who seemed like wizards at lower division schools and then are disasters once they get that P5 job is pretty long.

[Tex Long 4449]

I watched both UW vs UO games, and some of others... prolly woulda watched more, but PAC12 TV coverage was as incredibly hard to find as LHN. For the whole fucking conference. No wonder the conference imploded.

All things seen and considered, it really seemed to me that it wasn't so much that UW won, as it was that UO's coach fucked it away, both times. 

I think the odds quoted up and down this thread, are pretty much spot on. Namely, if we played them ten times, we would win six or seven of them. 

I'ma go with that. Not a sure thing, but I think we most likely to be in the Grand Finale.

[Warrrshington 148]

 

You’re talking to people who watched sark closely for 5 years🤣

Edited December 12, 2023 by Warrrshington

[Josef Pwag 1741]

2 hours ago, Warrrshington said:

Alabama didn’t outclass us.

I am going to save up my per diems and I'll buy you any shirt you want at Dan Flashes. 

[Valmy77 13273]

9 minutes ago, Warrrshington said:

 

You’re talking to people who watched sark closely for 5 years🤣

Saw something you liked did you?

[Codaxx 5884]

8 minutes ago, Warrrshington said:

 

You’re talking to people who watched sark closely for 5 years🤣

Browns fans watched Belichick closely. Michigan State fans watched Saban closely. I am not saying Sark will end up like those, but lets not pretend the 2023 Sark is the same as the 2013 Sark

[troph 24912]

55 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

And I can’t think of any other examples of coaches getting outsized credit on the basis of amazing qb play…

Cam Newton, Teddy Bridgewater, Jameis Winston, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow

Maybe Washington’s coach is the real deal, but he’s going to have to prove it when Penix is gone

100% and I said as much, but he's still done as well or better and more quickly at WA than Petersen. and Penix was his guy when he was an OC at Indiana, so it's not like he doesn't have more than just this year to take credit for, he actually is the reason why Penix is there.

[alphahydro 334]

When I say well-rounded, I guess it's relative.  

I mean if UW plays a team of equal strength, I don't see any major facets of UW's team that are obviously going to be at risk of being exploited by the other team.  It's almost like one of those video games where you get 100 skill points at the beginning of the game and you sprinkle the 100 points among the 10 different categories when you create your player (magic, speed, strength or whatever).   UW did a good job of sprinkling the points pretty evenly.  I don't have major questions about any facet of their team. 

UW's pass defense is only slightly better than Texas' (at least on paper, though UW has faced some really good passing attacks this year).  But among the 3 playoff teams, the biggest threat to exploit a subpar pass defense is prolly Penix.  Their run defense doesn't look good on paper, but they stymied Oregon's main running back without getting torched by the pass.  Their O-line seems to do its job well in pass pro, they have a good coach.  yada yada.   I don't see any glaring question marks or deficiencies.

Case in point is the Sugar Bowl.  No one is really saying that Texas looks poised to win because they are going to dominate UW in this facet of the game or that.   And this is a Texas team that beat Alabama convincingly at home and finished the season strong. 

In normal years, you might say the biggest threat for a "well-rounded" CFP team like UW is that they get throttled by a team with NFL athletes everywhere.  You can be as well-rounded as you want, but if you get totally outclassed by 2019 LSU that started with 140 skill  points instead of 100, you run the risk of getting stomped.  I just don't see a juggernaut in this years CFP like we've seen in years past.  (I don't see a repeat of UW Bama in 2016, where UW threw for 3.9 yards per pass and their main RB ran for 3.4 -- whereas Bama's main RB ran for 9.5 per carry).   I could be wrong though, and if I were a UW fan, my secret fear would be that playing Oregon and Arizona just isn't the same as playing the other 3 CFP teams when it comes to line of scrimmage and depth over the course of the game. 

All I'm saying is, based on what I see, if Bama were to beat UW convincingly, it's probably because they have a slight edge that they can exploit.  For example, Bama's DBs are good enough to do just enough in pass pro that Bama can afford to consistently send an extra blitzer up the middle.  Or Michigan can force UW to drop extra men to help with the run and then hit some big play action passes.  But it's going to be a minor advantage that gets exploited, as opposed to what we sometimes see out of the Pac-12 where one whole facet of the team isn't up to snuff.    

I said it was a terrible take, and I don't actually care if they are the most well-rounded of the four.  (And I think well-rounded is slightly different from the most complete).  But I do think it's important to think about UW as being well-rounded. 

[troph 24912]

I think Texas and Michigan are the most well rounded of the four. and none of the four are without weaknesses.  

[ztejas 43546]

18 minutes ago, alphahydro said:

I don't see any major facets of UW's team that are obviously going to be at risk of being exploited by the other team.

Just tune in Jan 1st.

[closetojumping 62883]

3 hours ago, Warrrshington said:

Disagree. Petersen’s first class, though lacking in stars, was a killer. Gaines, Vita, Dissly, Sample, Sidney Jones, Budda Baker, Dante Pettis. This idea that sark was such a better recruiter is simply not true. When he leveled up with Tosh, Sirmon, and Wilcox the recruiting got pretty good.

Alabama didn’t outclass us. That UW team had NFL talent at nearly every position. They exploited our one or two weaknesses (6’1, 270 true frosh OG), Joe Mathis injured at BUCK, and Browning threw that stupid pick 6 right before half. 
 

Petersen’s problem was he would get tight in the big games and the team took on his personality. DeBoer is a level up of Petersen because he is always calm and encourages his players to let it rip.

1) Intimating that Sarkisian isn't a good recruiter is laughable.

2) That boring-ass CFP game against Alabama was never in doubt. Objective fans of the sport could see what it was going to be from the first snap. Washington was happy to get to the playoff, Bama had shit to take care of, shut it down.

3) Deboer is a dogshit recruiter. It's kind of stunning. You guys have every right to be fired up about the guy, but wake the rest of us up if he's in the playoffs between 2024 and 2027 at UW.

[speed817 19482]

SIAP

 

[troph 24912]

20 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

3) Deboer is a dogshit recruiter. It's kind of stunning. You guys have every right to be fired up about the guy, but wake the rest of us up if he's in the playoffs between 2024 and 2027 at UW.

this is where I am at - though I don't have any knowledge of his recruiting ability. his record as a coach is stunning, going way back. I'm very interested to see though what next year and beyond looks like for him. 23-2 (with his QB not one he inherited) is unreal.

Edited December 12, 2023 by troph

[Warrrshington 148]

1 hour ago, Josef Pwag said:

I am going to save up my per diems and I'll buy you any shirt you want at Dan Flashes. 

Go through the lineup man for man. That UW team had more NFL talent than this one, easily. Were they outclassing Vita Vea for instance? Hell naw. 

[USNALonghorn 5078]

26 minutes ago, speed817 said:

SIAP

 

My reaction during the first 20 seconds:

[Warrrshington 148]

Sark used to mock one of UW’s players who had a stutter in front of the team. The guy was gonna quit when Petersen came in and coach Pete found the guy a tutor. He stayed and flourished.
 

Great guy that sark. Not in over his head at all🤣

[Huskyfan1997 204]

Definitely an unknown about how Deboer recruits.  You'd think that they'd have QB's and WR's clamoring to be part of their program at this point, since they would have highly inflated stats if they came here.  But no, we are not in the running for any top portal players.  

The fact is that neither Deboer, nor the Husky brand are a big draw for big-time recruits at this point.  Honestly I don't know if it's more Deboer or more Ryan Grubb that is the brains behind our offense.  

And imo, that 2016 husky team definitely had talent, but there was no doubt that Alabama still looked bigger, faster, and deeper at all positions than that husky team.  To my untrained eye, UW clearly looked inferior talent wise.  The defense had some talent, holding them to only 24 points.  But that offense looked like JV vs varsity. 

 

[hornian 5226]

3 hours ago, Nivek said:

delete

Don't tell me what to do, Kevin.

[Valmy77 13273]

11 minutes ago, Warrrshington said:

Sark used to mock one of UW’s players who had a stutter in front of the team. The guy was gonna quit when Petersen came in and coach Pete found the guy a tutor. He stayed and flourished.
 

Great guy that sark. Not in over his head at all🤣

Well fucking good for Petersen and that guy.

[alphahydro 334]

If I am a UW fan, these would be my concerns. 

1) We (UW fans) are excited to see UW against Texas' secondary.  But wait.  You're telling me Texas' passing attack is about as good as UW's on a given play?

EWERS 71% completion    9.0 AVG    3.5:1 TD:INT    162.6 Rating

PENIX   66% completion   9.1 AVG   3.66:1 TD:INT    161.4 Rating

But, we have so many weapons.  We (UW) have 4 WR/TE with 30+ Receptions and 10+ yards per reception. 

Wait, so does Texas?  And our pass defense isn't much better than theirs? 

But the Oregon game showed you can't defend our WR/TE and stop the run game. 

Wait, you're saying the same thing applies to us when Texas has the ball?  And Texas has a better run game than us and a better run defense?

---------------

this starts to look like a stalemate/relatively even matchup, similar to Oregon.  And you have to start looking at individual matchups (J. Sanders prolly being the most obvious positive one for Texas - and if they really are bad at tackling, you start to look at some of Texas' possible game breakers), coaching quality (one place where it looked like Oregon suffered in the games I watched).   And maybe how was UW able to play/defend against good passing attacks.  (basically USC/Oregon/AZ/Oregon state).  And frankly, you have to start looking at the difference between Brooks and the remaining RBs, imo.  Arizona seemed to do a lot of damage late with their bruising RB. 

[The_Great_Hornsby 3285]

17 minutes ago, Warrrshington said:

Sark used to mock one of UW’s players who had a stutter in front of the team. The guy was gonna quit when Petersen came in and coach Pete found the guy a tutor. He stayed and flourished.
 

Great guy that sark. Not in over his head at all🤣

Even if true, people change. He would be the first to admit he is a different man and coach now that he has arrived at Texas. 

The weird shit talk from Washington fans is bizarre. Y'all are irrelevant, just another flash in the pan school that happened to make the playoff. Enjoy the short stay in the playoffs, it is probably the last trip you will have for a long time. 

[Codaxx 5884]

21 minutes ago, Warrrshington said:

Sark used to mock one of UW’s players who had a stutter in front of the team. The guy was gonna quit when Petersen came in and coach Pete found the guy a tutor. He stayed and flourished.
 

Great guy that sark. Not in over his head at all🤣

I think you need to figure this out in your head first.. Are you mad that Sark dumped Washignton for USC or do you think Sark is a shitty coach. Both things cant be true

[ITHorn 801]

2 hours ago, Warrrshington said:

Jake Haener sucked at UW and DeBoer made him a fringe heisman candidate at Fresno. This shit ain’t complicated🤣

 

Jake threw thirteen passes at Washington as a true freshman over 3 games before transferring. In what world is that sucking? At least try to come up with a better fake narrative. 

[hook me 2103]

35 minutes ago, Warrrshington said:

Sark used to mock one of UW’s players who had a stutter in front of the team. The guy was gonna quit when Petersen came in and coach Pete found the guy a tutor. He stayed and flourished.
 

Great guy that sark. Not in over his head at all🤣

 

1 hour ago, Warrrshington said:

 

You’re talking to people who watched sark closely for 5 years🤣

Who left the garage open and let this fucktard back in?

Hey dumbass, no one cares what Sark did 10 years ago in a completely different region during a completely different era of college football. We all argued back and forth about his time at UW when he was hired here, but after being here for 3 years all that matters to us is what he's done/is doing here.

[gofuckyourself 8386]

42 minutes ago, Warrrshington said:

Sark used to mock one of UW’s players who had a stutter in front of the team. The guy was gonna quit when Petersen came in and coach Pete found the guy a tutor. He stayed and flourished.
 

Great guy that sark. Not in over his head at all🤣

100% true.

They made a movie about it.

[sushihorn 3233]

1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

3) Deboer is a dogshit recruiter. It's kind of stunning. You guys have every right to be fired up about the guy, but wake the rest of us up if he's in the playoffs between 2024 and 2027 at UW.

Maybe by comparison to the other CFP HCs, he’s not a strong recruiter but I think you’re overstating the case. The one full recruiting class was ranked about where UW has been forever.