Game Week Thread Week 14, 2023, Texas v Washington, College Football Playoff Edition

[Dahobbs 17534]

1 minute ago, Herbie Hancock said:

 

 

Yeah, uh, Wash is the #1 passing offense in the country and we are the 95th?? ranked passing defense. We struggled with Kstate and Wil Howard. Not sure I agree that we can score more easily than them.

 

 

We are the #18 passing offense and they are the #120 ranked passing defense based on yards allowed. We are also the #23 rushing offense and they are the #38 ranked rushing defense based on yards allowed and the #78 based on yards per rush.

That said, as I've mentioned before, Washington and Texas' pass defenses aren't quite as bad as the yardage allowed stat suggests. They are #30 and #33 in pass efficiency defense. Teams just throw the ball a lot against both of them. 

[capnamerca 571]

Can everyone please put on the lens of "both teams are really fucking good, and any point made about a relative strength or weakness is in that context, and is not calling said strength or weakness a failing"?

 

The last ~15 pages of this thread are an absolute beat down of a circular navel-gaze, on BOTH sides. 

 

Texas is going to win, of course, but it's not like we're equating Washington with Baylor for gods sake (and they're not calling us Arizona)

[Crapinon 2257]

20 minutes ago, capnamerca said:

 

 

Texas is going to win, of course, but it's not like we're equating Washington with Baylor for gods sake (and they're not calling us Arizona)

Maybe not calling us Arizona, but the message board fans believe that Texas has not improved, but that the conference has gotten worse. They have grown leaps and bounds and Texas has remained static. Several believe that Texas would be the 4th best team in the Pac 12. They really do hate Sark and believe that he is a drunk moron. Him and K will fold under pressure because that's what they did at UW. UW won their close games by shear will and determination while Texas was bailed out by refs and dumb luck. It's going to be a long 2 1/2 weeks.

[troph 24798]

43 minutes ago, capnamerca said:

Can everyone please put on the lens of "both teams are really fucking good, and any point made about a relative strength or weakness is in that context, and is not calling said strength or weakness a failing"?

 

The last ~15 pages of this thread are an absolute beat down of a circular navel-gaze, on BOTH sides. 

 

Texas is going to win, of course, but it's not like we're equating Washington with Baylor for gods sake (and they're not calling us Arizona)

Huskies aren't navel gazing they are exclaiming Texas is trash hiring WA drunk rejects and DeBoer is the next Great Saban. WASHINGTON ROLLLS!!!

 

Let's reciprocate for 15 pages .... I'll start (well you started it, but I'll keep it going)...

 

TEXAS WINS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Edited December 13, 2023 by troph

[Bodacious Bevo 3584]

Alex Dunlap - Remember the Alamo Bowl

Spoiler

Clearly, Washington has a very good football team.

In fact, recently, the Athletic (subscription required) was asked to rank the Top 5 NFL prospects on each of the four CFP teams, and in listing out the those top 5 the Huskies are looking to send to the league in 2024, the list didn't even get to star QB and Heisman Trophy finalist Michael Penix Jr. They have some players, for sure.

And they had those same players when Texas faced them in the Alamo Bowl last year. Yes, they've clearly all gotten a year of seasoning, and are a year better now than the Texas players who played in that game were a year ago. However, the difference between 2022 Washington and 2023 Washington is nowhere near the difference between 2022 Texas and 2023 Texas. You have to watch the game back to remind yourself of what a difference a year makes.

So, let's Remember the Alamo (Bowl) for a minute. These are the ways Texas is different in 2023 than it was in the 2022 Alamo Bowl:

- Xavier Worthy had a broken hand and played horribly. Worthy had one drop on a deep ball that was so egregious that Sark elected to go back to him again on the very next play (because surely he'd never drop two in a row like that) and sure enough, the second drop was even worse than the first. Xavier Worthy may have had a hiccup or two this season, but these two consecutive pass plays are worse than any of them individually. Two totally wasted dimes by Ewers. That doesn't happen in the 2023 season.

- Keilan Robinson was somehow forced into a lead back role. Just miserable. Texas may be without Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson in 2023 but they were also without those guys in the Alamo Bowl. Even Jonathan Brooks was still extremely limited with the sports hernia. To say Robinson couldn't get anything going would be an understatement. The run game was non-existent and made Texas completely one dimensional, even against a run-front that wasn't all that imposing. To think that UW will as easily shut down CJ Baxter, Jaydon Blue and a lightning-strike change-of-pace (his proper role) in Keilan Robinson running behind a much-improved OL just because they limited Texas to 51 team rushing yards last year would be delusional and cockamamie.

- Diamonte Tucker-Dorsey filled in for Demarvion Overshown. Texas won't have any issues with players sitting out the final game of the season this year. You don't opt out when going for a championship. Take this into consideration: Anthony Hill is already better (at the very least, MUCH more efficient) than Demarvion Overshown was as a senior. That is not to diss Overshown, that is just to put things in context. Overshown played 653 snaps last year and generated 8.57% of the team's production (once every 8.01 snaps). And while Hill didn't play near as many snaps this season as Overshown did last (429), he had 7.72% of the production on a much better defense, and did so with much more efficiency per-snap (once every 6.24 snaps). We all know that Tucker-Dorsey is a downgrade from Overshown, and considering that Overshown can be argued to be a downgrade from Hill, well ....

- Jake Majors played miserably. Just miserable. Say what you will about Majors' career at Texas but this year, he's been good. Period. Everyone makes mistakes and everyone fails at times, even the best of the best, but when we boil it all down, Majors was more than just fine in 2023, he was actually good. He allowed disruption only once every 31.7 snaps on the season. He's one of the offense's most improved players. In the Alamo Bowl, he allowed 2 run-stuffs, one TFL and one QB pressure on 64 total snaps, good for once every 16. Majors has not played a game that bad since that very day.

- Quinn Ewers and Xavier Worthy had no connection. They aren't exactly Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley with their 2023 connection, so it's not exactly an epic mind-meld where they are finishing each other's sentences, but man ... you really have to go back and watch to remember how off the page these two were with each other that season. It's frustrating to watch back even now.

- The special teams play was sloppy. A busted protection package leading to a blocked punt. Jordan Whittington ran into the kicker. Keilan Robinson wasn't able to pin UW deep on a punt he should have downed at the one. An onside kick attempt that never had a chance. Can you think back on the 2023 season and conjure up a game that had so many missteps on special teams? In fact, the special teams (especially as Texas has begun to peak late in the season) have been a feather in this team's cap if nothing else.

- The RG position was in flux. It doesn't matter how coaches spin player rotations, you don't rotate in average players for awesome players. You don't even rotate in average players for pretty good players. Last year, both Cole Hutson and DJ Campbell were not even in that pretty good-category yet and they rotated all game as Hutson was returning from injury. While DJC has had his ups and downs this season, the highs have been terrific and so such rotation will be occurring this year.

- Casey Cain was the leading receiver and alpha at the X. Guys like Savion Red and Brennen Thompson were actually contributors at WR. Yes, Cain was only the leading receiver because he caught a useless last-second hail mary from Ewers as time expired but that isn't the point. The point is, do you see a difference between Adonai Mitchell, Johntay Cook and Deandre Moore and Casey Cain (transferring), Thompson (already transferred out) and Red (had to change positions)?

- Zero pass rush. Nothing against Ovie Oghuofo, but he brought zero in the pass-rush department in this game and the team simply didn't get the same pressure last year as it did in 2023 on the whole. In the Alamo Bowl, Oghuofo had 3 assisted tackles on 67 total snaps. Not an ounce of pressure from Oghuofo (and not much from anyone else, either), as had been the case all season. Does that sound like an average 2023 game to you?

- Unbelievably miserable run fits from the defensive line (and linebackers). This was the most galling to me. Just the piss-poor pad level. It happened through the game, but this is the run that really cemented in my mind just how far this team has come with it's run fits:



If you can't easily see what was so bad about this play, I broke it down in detail yesterday here on "Football with Friends" on the Orangebloods YouTube Channel. The clip below will take you directly to that discussion.



If anyone tells you this game is surely going to be a repeat of 2022, they may be right.

But the one thing you'll know for certain is that they haven't been paying attention.

His point about Ovie reminds me: Burke is one of the guys recovering from injury. There may be a bump in play coming from him between that and rest to recover from being tired as a first year starter. If we get Bama Burke that would be huge. Though it's also possible he doesn't even play much if we end up in the Blackwell dime a bunch.

Someone that knows more about scheme can answer this: what impact does EDGE play have on OL shifts? It's been discussed that UW will shift the OL and roll Penix out but I would think that can be countered if a DE can get upfield and set the edge. I also wonder if we see some return of the nickel and corner blitz (not that we ever really abandoned them) for a similar reason. In which case I wonder if we see some Burke in the Blackwell package since he can drop. 

Edited December 13, 2023 by Bodacious Bevo

[runthebone 7982]

1 hour ago, capnamerca said:

Can everyone please put on the lens of "both teams are really fucking good, and any point made about a relative strength or weakness is in that context, and is not calling said strength or weakness a failing"?

 

The last ~15 pages of this thread are an absolute beat down of a circular navel-gaze, on BOTH sides. 

 

Texas is going to win, of course, but it's not like we're equating Washington with Baylor for gods sake (and they're not calling us Arizona)

I think you are looking for another board...

[Atticus 3973]

35 minutes ago, Bodacious Bevo said:

His point about Ovie reminds me: Burke is one of the guys recovering from injury. There may be a bump in play coming from him between that and rest to recover from being tired as a first year starter. If we get Bama Burke that would be huge. Though it's also possible he doesn't even play much if we end up in the Blackwell dime a bunch.

Someone that knows more about scheme can answer this: what impact does EDGE play have on OL shifts? It's been discussed that UW will shift the OL and roll Penix out but I would think that can be countered if a DE can get upfield and set the edge. I also wonder if we see some return of the nickel and corner blitz (not that we ever really abandoned them) for a similar reason. In which case I wonder if we see some Burke in the Blackwell package since he can drop. 

I'll be shocked shocked if Burke isn't a big part of the defensive gameplan against UW. His length will cause problems for RT Rosengarten if they get matched up and he can get it hands up to help defend the quick game stuff they do. 

Penix is a lefty, so Rosengarten is his blindside protector.

[ztejas 43449]

40 minutes ago, Bodacious Bevo said:

Burke is one of the guys recovering from injury. There may be a bump in play coming from him between that and rest to recover from being tired as a first year starter.

I think giving Texas a month to heal up, feed the hogs and let Sark scheme bodes poorly for Washington in general. I would assume we see a similar Texas team to the team that played Bama and no one in the country is lining up and beating that team without a lot going their way. 

The main difference with UW is that Penix will likely be more dangerous than Milroe and they can potentially play a much cleaner game than Bama did. Granted, UW doesn't have the talent on D that Bama does.

[Red Five 40858]

11 minutes ago, ztejas said:

I think giving Texas a month to heal up, feed the hogs and let Sark scheme bodes poorly for Washington in general. I would assume we see a similar Texas team to the team that played Bama and no one in the country is lining up and beating that team without a lot going their way. 

 

I rewatched the Bama game last night. That was more dominating than I remembered. And we're better now than we were then.

I think we're going to hammer Washington. 42-24 or some such.

[Texas Wahoo 3397]

Not that it matters, but I assume ACC refs will be on this game?  It's an unusual scenario, given that Texas is in the Big 12 and will be in the SEC next year and Washington is in the Pac 12 and will be in the Big Ten next year.  I would assume you would not want any of those conferences' refs on the game, so it pretty much has to be the ACC.

[Bodacious Bevo 3584]

48 minutes ago, Atticus said:

I'll be shocked shocked if Burke isn't a big part of the defensive gameplan against UW. His length will cause problems for RT Rosengarten if they get matched up and he can get it hands up to help defend the quick game stuff they do. 

Penix is a lefty, so Rosengarten is his blindside protector.

I agree but he's also the first guy off the field in a lot of our subpackages, so it'll be interesting to see. 

As an aside, that's something that I really like about this team and the way that Sark/PK run things. There are a lot of guys with specialized roles. It's not just rotations that get non-starters reps. Helm, Agbo, Blackwell, Bush, Collins, and Robinson are all guys that are engaged and play legitimately important roles that wouldn't under coordinators that are married to a particular base package. Not to mention special teamers. 

[Codaxx 5739]

6 minutes ago, Bodacious Bevo said:

I agree but he's also the first guy off the field in a lot of our subpackages, so it'll be interesting to see. 

As an aside, that's something that I really like about this team and the way that Sark/PK run things. There are a lot of guys with specialized roles. It's not just rotations that get non-starters reps. Helm, Agbo, Blackwell, Bush, Collins, and Robinson are all guys that are engaged and play legitimately important roles that wouldn't under coordinators that are married to a particular base package. Not to mention special teamers. 

Very interested in what new sub packages PK comes up with. He has a lot of time and they get a month of practice. Could this be a breakout for a guy like Bledsoe, who maybe the best interior rusher for Texas. Does he install  a Dime package? No idea what PK will do, but I am sure there will be some wrinkle we have not seen. 

[BurntOrange&White 39933]

4 hours ago, troph said:

If Texas gets pressure on Penix, Texas wins, if they don't, Washington wins.  I agree. set up third down pressure with success on first and second down. take away the run, make it a non factor and then pressure the fuck out of Penix. give up a play, forget and try again. we need 3-4 quality stops and 1 turnover/special teams momentum changer and we win. can it be done? especially the pressure on Penix? strength on strength? we will see. He's gonna have to score 35+ to win.

 

 

I don't think pressure is enough. They need to get home IMO. Penix throws pretty dang well off his back foot. 

[sushihorn 3233]

2 hours ago, Bodacious Bevo said:

Alex Dunlap - Remember the Alamo Bowl

  Reveal hidden contents

Clearly, Washington has a very good football team.

In fact, recently, the Athletic (subscription required) was asked to rank the Top 5 NFL prospects on each of the four CFP teams, and in listing out the those top 5 the Huskies are looking to send to the league in 2024, the list didn't even get to star QB and Heisman Trophy finalist Michael Penix Jr. They have some players, for sure.

And they had those same players when Texas faced them in the Alamo Bowl last year. Yes, they've clearly all gotten a year of seasoning, and are a year better now than the Texas players who played in that game were a year ago. However, the difference between 2022 Washington and 2023 Washington is nowhere near the difference between 2022 Texas and 2023 Texas. You have to watch the game back to remind yourself of what a difference a year makes.

So, let's Remember the Alamo (Bowl) for a minute. These are the ways Texas is different in 2023 than it was in the 2022 Alamo Bowl:

- Xavier Worthy had a broken hand and played horribly. Worthy had one drop on a deep ball that was so egregious that Sark elected to go back to him again on the very next play (because surely he'd never drop two in a row like that) and sure enough, the second drop was even worse than the first. Xavier Worthy may have had a hiccup or two this season, but these two consecutive pass plays are worse than any of them individually. Two totally wasted dimes by Ewers. That doesn't happen in the 2023 season.

- Keilan Robinson was somehow forced into a lead back role. Just miserable. Texas may be without Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson in 2023 but they were also without those guys in the Alamo Bowl. Even Jonathan Brooks was still extremely limited with the sports hernia. To say Robinson couldn't get anything going would be an understatement. The run game was non-existent and made Texas completely one dimensional, even against a run-front that wasn't all that imposing. To think that UW will as easily shut down CJ Baxter, Jaydon Blue and a lightning-strike change-of-pace (his proper role) in Keilan Robinson running behind a much-improved OL just because they limited Texas to 51 team rushing yards last year would be delusional and cockamamie.

- Diamonte Tucker-Dorsey filled in for Demarvion Overshown. Texas won't have any issues with players sitting out the final game of the season this year. You don't opt out when going for a championship. Take this into consideration: Anthony Hill is already better (at the very least, MUCH more efficient) than Demarvion Overshown was as a senior. That is not to diss Overshown, that is just to put things in context. Overshown played 653 snaps last year and generated 8.57% of the team's production (once every 8.01 snaps). And while Hill didn't play near as many snaps this season as Overshown did last (429), he had 7.72% of the production on a much better defense, and did so with much more efficiency per-snap (once every 6.24 snaps). We all know that Tucker-Dorsey is a downgrade from Overshown, and considering that Overshown can be argued to be a downgrade from Hill, well ....

- Jake Majors played miserably. Just miserable. Say what you will about Majors' career at Texas but this year, he's been good. Period. Everyone makes mistakes and everyone fails at times, even the best of the best, but when we boil it all down, Majors was more than just fine in 2023, he was actually good. He allowed disruption only once every 31.7 snaps on the season. He's one of the offense's most improved players. In the Alamo Bowl, he allowed 2 run-stuffs, one TFL and one QB pressure on 64 total snaps, good for once every 16. Majors has not played a game that bad since that very day.

- Quinn Ewers and Xavier Worthy had no connection. They aren't exactly Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley with their 2023 connection, so it's not exactly an epic mind-meld where they are finishing each other's sentences, but man ... you really have to go back and watch to remember how off the page these two were with each other that season. It's frustrating to watch back even now.

- The special teams play was sloppy. A busted protection package leading to a blocked punt. Jordan Whittington ran into the kicker. Keilan Robinson wasn't able to pin UW deep on a punt he should have downed at the one. An onside kick attempt that never had a chance. Can you think back on the 2023 season and conjure up a game that had so many missteps on special teams? In fact, the special teams (especially as Texas has begun to peak late in the season) have been a feather in this team's cap if nothing else.

- The RG position was in flux. It doesn't matter how coaches spin player rotations, you don't rotate in average players for awesome players. You don't even rotate in average players for pretty good players. Last year, both Cole Hutson and DJ Campbell were not even in that pretty good-category yet and they rotated all game as Hutson was returning from injury. While DJC has had his ups and downs this season, the highs have been terrific and so such rotation will be occurring this year.

- Casey Cain was the leading receiver and alpha at the X. Guys like Savion Red and Brennen Thompson were actually contributors at WR. Yes, Cain was only the leading receiver because he caught a useless last-second hail mary from Ewers as time expired but that isn't the point. The point is, do you see a difference between Adonai Mitchell, Johntay Cook and Deandre Moore and Casey Cain (transferring), Thompson (already transferred out) and Red (had to change positions)?

- Zero pass rush. Nothing against Ovie Oghuofo, but he brought zero in the pass-rush department in this game and the team simply didn't get the same pressure last year as it did in 2023 on the whole. In the Alamo Bowl, Oghuofo had 3 assisted tackles on 67 total snaps. Not an ounce of pressure from Oghuofo (and not much from anyone else, either), as had been the case all season. Does that sound like an average 2023 game to you?

- Unbelievably miserable run fits from the defensive line (and linebackers). This was the most galling to me. Just the piss-poor pad level. It happened through the game, but this is the run that really cemented in my mind just how far this team has come with it's run fits:



If you can't easily see what was so bad about this play, I broke it down in detail yesterday here on "Football with Friends" on the Orangebloods YouTube Channel. The clip below will take you directly to that discussion.



If anyone tells you this game is surely going to be a repeat of 2022, they may be right.

But the one thing you'll know for certain is that they haven't been paying attention.

His point about Ovie reminds me: Burke is one of the guys recovering from injury. There may be a bump in play coming from him between that and rest to recover from being tired as a first year starter. If we get Bama Burke that would be huge. Though it's also possible he doesn't even play much if we end up in the Blackwell dime a bunch.

Someone that knows more about scheme can answer this: what impact does EDGE play have on OL shifts? It's been discussed that UW will shift the OL and roll Penix out but I would think that can be countered if a DE can get upfield and set the edge. I also wonder if we see some return of the nickel and corner blitz (not that we ever really abandoned them) for a similar reason. In which case I wonder if we see some Burke in the Blackwell package since he can drop. 

With UW, it’s usually a half-roll to move the pocket and confuse the pass rush’s aiming point. Penix is at his best in the pocket and I’ve seen very few plays that looked designed to have him throw on the run. 

[Valmy77 13226]

2 hours ago, Bodacious Bevo said:

Alex Dunlap - Remember the Alamo Bowl

Damn right!

Remember the Alamo!!!!

...Bowl

[Modessit 5601]

I just want to know one thing that I haven't seen yet - how is Penix when it comes to scrambling? Gabriel running is what got ou down the field quickly to take the lead at the end. Milroe had some big runs against us and his running has been big for Bama the rest of the season.

If he's not a threat to break off a big run every once in a while, they're toast. Looking at the 2 Oregon games, he didn't run for shit. If we don't have to waste a spy for him, it should help in other ways

[Herbie Hancock 7348]

I just want to know one thing that I haven't seen yet - how is Penix when it comes to scrambling? Gabriel running is what got ou down the field quickly to take the lead at the end. Milroe had some big runs against us and his running has been big for Bama the rest of the season.

If he's not a threat to break off a big run every once in a while, they're toast. Looking at the 2 Oregon games, he didn't run for shit. If we don't have to waste a spy for him, it should help in other ways

29 carries for -18 yards and a long of 11 this year. 35 for 92 yards last year. 17 for -24 yards in 2021.

[Valmy77 13226]

7 minutes ago, Herbie Hancock said:

29 carries for -18 yards and a long of 11 this year. 35 for 92 yards last year. 17 for -24 yards in 2021.

With the caveat that sacks count for rushes in College Football, which makes all these stats somewhat misleading.

Penix very rarely runs.

His career stats over six seasons are:

128 Carries 239 Yards 1.9 Avg 13 TDs with his longest run being 30 yards

That is a guy who scrambles from time to time and can get yards but it is clearly not really his thing.

Just for context Ewers is:

75 Carries -31 Yards -0.4 Avg 6 TDs with his longest run also being 30 yards for his career

and 51 Carries 21 Yards 0.4 Avg 5 TDs for 2023

So Ewers and Penix seem pretty similar in being a rushing threat.

And since Gabriel was brought up he was:

93 Carries 373 Yards 4.0 Avg with 12 TDs

So Gabriel has almost as many carries in one year, and more yards, than Penix does for six years combined.

Edited December 13, 2023 by Valmy77

[sushihorn 3233]

9 minutes ago, Modessit said:

I just want to know one thing that I haven't seen yet - how is Penix when it comes to scrambling? Gabriel running is what got ou down the field quickly to take the lead at the end. Milroe had some big runs against us and his running has been big for Bama the rest of the season.

If he's not a threat to break off a big run every once in a while, they're toast. Looking at the 2 Oregon games, he didn't run for shit. If we don't have to waste a spy for him, it should help in other ways

Not much of a running threat, especially after 2 ACL surgeries. He can pick up short yardage if you don’t account for him but he’s not going to break a long run. Also, Penix is central to the offense and I doubt DeBoer would risk him. 

[Valmy77 13226]

1 minute ago, sushihorn said:

Not much of a running threat, especially after 2 ACL surgeries. He can pick up short yardage if you don’t account for him but he’s not going to break a long run. Also, Penix is central to the offense and I doubt DeBoer would risk him. 

Sometimes coaches will take risks in these important Bowl Games they wouldn't normally take since they are not in the context of a long season.

Hence why Mack Brown and Greg Davis thought running Colt McCoy in the 2010 National Title game was a great strategy.

[Herbie Hancock 7348]

With the caveat that sacks count for rushes in College Football, which makes all these stats somewhat misleading.
Penix very rarely runs.
His career stats over six seasons are:
128 Carries 239 Yards 1.9 Avg 13 TDs with his longest run being 30 yards
That is a guy who scrambles from time to time and can get yards but it is clearly not really his thing.
Just for context Ewers is:
75 Carries -31 Yards -0.4 Avg 6 TDs with his longest run also being 30 yards for his career
and 51 Carries 21 Yards 0.4 Avg 5 TDs for 2023
So Ewers and Penix seem pretty similar in being a rushing threat.
And since Gabriel was brought up he was:
93 Carries 373 Yards 4.0 Avg with 12 TDs
So Gabriel has almost as many carries in one year, and more yards, than Penix does for six years combined.

Why do you need to add a caveat when I included the longest run of the season in there as well? It's very clear from anywhere you're looking from that he isn't a runner.

[Codaxx 5739]

3 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Sometimes coaches will take risks in these important Bowl Games they wouldn't normally take since they are not in the context of a long season.

Hence why Mack Brown and Greg Davis thought running Colt McCoy in the 2010 National Title game was a great strategy.

I think your Ewers comp is solid. Penix is athletic enough to hurt you, if you forget about him. He isnt going to hurt you consistently. Maybe get the one change of pace QB draw or a scramble, but it wont be much more than that. 

Edited December 13, 2023 by Codaxx

[Valmy77 13226]

2 minutes ago, Herbie Hancock said:

Why do you need to add a caveat when I included the longest run of the season in there as well?

Sometimes people forget that since it is different from the NFL.

[Vertigo 20285]

 

[Bodacious Bevo 3584]

57 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

With the caveat that sacks count for rushes in College Football, which makes all these stats somewhat misleading.

Penix very rarely runs.

His career stats over six seasons are:

128 Carries 239 Yards 1.9 Avg 13 TDs with his longest run being 30 yards

That is a guy who scrambles from time to time and can get yards but it is clearly not really his thing.

Just for context Ewers is:

75 Carries -31 Yards -0.4 Avg 6 TDs with his longest run also being 30 yards for his career

and 51 Carries 21 Yards 0.4 Avg 5 TDs for 2023

So Ewers and Penix seem pretty similar in being a rushing threat.

And since Gabriel was brought up he was:

93 Carries 373 Yards 4.0 Avg with 12 TDs

So Gabriel has almost as many carries in one year, and more yards, than Penix does for six years combined.

ESPN has season-long sack yardage stats. So if you remove sacks and yardage lost from their rushing stats:

'23 Penix: 19/53/2.8/3

'23 Ewers: 26/159/6.1/5

I think Ewers is a bigger threat with his legs but it's not going to be part of either team's offensive gameplan. Either guy is mobile enough to pick up first downs with his legs when needed. Quinn is more likely to belt off a random 25 yarder. In the first five games Quinn was running quite a bit and doing so effectively even if he looked a newborn foal taking its first steps. He just hasn't done it hardly at all since his injury.

[ChickenNuggets 1626]

23 hours ago, NoName said:

well guys, i think i'm officially ready to call it.

worst "invasion" by an opponent fanbase ever.

this is some of the worst attempted shit talking, bringing up things nobody else knows about or cares about, irrelevant, least knowledgeable bunch of fans i've seen ever even attempt something like this.

not sure what the goal was, but if it was to show that you guys collectively are so dense that light bends around you - congratulations. you did it.

I mean, the biggest pussies in the world come out of the pacific northwest.... this should not surprise anyone. 

[ChickenNuggets 1626]

On 12/12/2023 at 2:33 PM, troph said:

this is where I am at - though I don't have any knowledge of his recruiting ability. his record as a coach is stunning, going way back. I'm very interested to see though what next year and beyond looks like for him. 23-2 (with his QB not one he inherited) is unreal.

fify

[Nivek 16930]

On 12/12/2023 at 2:57 PM, hornian said:

Don't tell me what to do, Kevin.

Bro, you really want to mess with this?  

[Bodacious Bevo 3584]

Really avoiding work rn, so I found Penix's career long. 

Interestingly, it came on a throw back to the QB. Actually a pretty solid scamper.

And it turns out he had a second rushing TD on the next drive, on a zone read. 

So personally I still don't view him as a running threat, but he does command some discipline from the defense. 

Edited December 13, 2023 by Bodacious Bevo

[troph 24798]

5 hours ago, Red Five said:

I rewatched the Bama game last night. That was more dominating than I remembered. And we're better now than we were then.

I think we're going to hammer Washington. 42-24 or some such.

I rewatched too and Milroe was a handful in the pocket and sacked 5 times. Almost 8. Half of his pass plays in the first half were pressured. Penix will get rid the ball quicker I’m sure but man if we can have half the pressure of the Bama game we are in good shape. 

[Vic Mackey 47038]

[troph 24798]

5 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I don't think pressure is enough. They need to get home IMO. Penix throws pretty dang well off his back foot. 

Enough pressure almost always leads to some sacks. Texas probably had 20 pressures against Bama and finished with 5 sacks. And if he’s throwing off his back foot half the time I’ll take our chances. I actually think our DBs are inconsistent not generally bad or mediocre, meaning if Penix is pressured often they will find an INT. 

Edited December 14, 2023 by troph

[troph 24798]

55 minutes ago, Vic Mackey said:

He’s a baller no doubt.

[troph 24798]

5 hours ago, Codaxx said:

I think your Ewers comp is solid. Penix is athletic enough to hurt you, if you forget about him. He isnt going to hurt you consistently. Maybe get the one change of pace QB draw or a scramble, but it wont be much more than that. 

These days the biggest risk on a scramble from a QB that isn’t a runner is the slide / personal foul targeting. 

[Herbie Hancock 7348]

I rewatched too and Milroe was a handful in the pocket and sacked 5 times. Almost 8. Half of his pass plays in the first half were pressured. Penix will get rid the ball quicker I’m sure but man if we can have half the pressure of the Bama game we are in good shape. 

He does not get rid of the ball quicker. He is a left handed Byron Leftwich. Or a slightly more accurate Tebow.

[troph 24798]

8 minutes ago, Herbie Hancock said:

He does not get rid of the ball quicker. He is a left handed Byron Leftwich. Or a slightly more accurate Tebow.

Milroe held the ball a long time, I suspect play calling will lean heavily on short passes - hence get rid of the ball quicker. I’m not talking about mechanics. That’s for y’all football nerds.

[closetohumping 17442]

[USNALonghorn 5078]

9 hours ago, closetohumping said:

[thrillhammer 683]

20 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I don't think pressure is enough. They need to get home IMO. Penix throws pretty dang well off his back foot. 

whats the over/under on texas sacks?  

[troph 24798]

15 minutes ago, thrillhammer said:

whats the over/under on texas sacks?  

is that a real thing, like a bettable vegas thing?  I'd imagine 1.5 if I were setting the line.

[Nivek 16930]

is that a real thing, like a bettable vegas thing?  I'd imagine 1.5 if I were setting the line.

I don’t gamble, but I always love the half- metrics. Sort of like being half pregnant.

[utee94 15823]

15 hours ago, troph said:

I rewatched too and Milroe was a handful in the pocket and sacked 5 times. Almost 8. Half of his pass plays in the first half were pressured. Penix will get rid the ball quicker I’m sure but man if we can have half the pressure of the Bama game we are in good shape. 

Hmmm, and I look at the Alabama game in Tuscaloosa, and the Washington game at neutral-site Sugar Bowl, and I wonder what one thing will be true for both of those games, that wasn't true in ALL other games this season, where our All-American interior defensive line seemingly struggled to generate pressure...?  

I'm expecting a feast on 1/1.

[Nivek 16930]

I watched a Washington show, they really think they are going to steamroll Texas. Penix was smart enough to not say so, but I am guessing he shares the same attitude. It is going to be hysterical when they get a reality check soon.

They have all the arrogance of 2005 USC without the trophies.

[troph 24798]

7 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Hmmm, and I look at the Alabama game in Tuscaloosa, and the Washington game at neutral-site Sugar Bowl, and I wonder what one thing will be true for both of those games, that wasn't true in ALL other games this season, where our All-American interior defensive line seemingly struggled to generate pressure...?  

I'm expecting a feast on 1/1.

needs a drool and FAFO pos rep.  I'm down.

11 minutes ago, Nivek said:

I don’t gamble, but I always love the half- metrics. Sort of like being half pregnant.

fuck half pregnancies (no CR).

[thrillhammer 683]

16 minutes ago, Nivek said:

I don’t gamble, but I always love the half- metrics. Sort of like being half pregnant.

in the case of sacks, half is a real stat.

[sith_horn 2394]

11 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Hmmm, and I look at the Alabama game in Tuscaloosa, and the Washington game at neutral-site Sugar Bowl, and I wonder what one thing will be true for both of those games, that wasn't true in ALL other games this season, where our All-American interior defensive line seemingly struggled to generate pressure...?  

I'm expecting a feast on 1/1.

I hope you are correct about that. It's not like other conference officials don't ignore some stuff, for whatever reasons.

[texasdago 7573]

13 hours ago, closetohumping said:

[troph 24798]

16 minutes ago, thrillhammer said:

in the case of sacks, half is a real stat.

Is it for a team total? I said 1.5 assuming you didn’t want an exact result so you’re either over or under. But I don’t bet so wtf do I know? I’m saying 1 sack expected 2 is more than I would expect.

[Valmy77 13226]

13 hours ago, closetohumping said:

Really? Washington's rivals in Oregon are cheering for them to win the National Championship? That's lame.

[thunderlounge 7832]

6 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Really? Washington's rivals in Oregon are cheering for them to win the National Championship? That's lame.

P-A-C! P-A-C!