Game Week Thread Week 14, 2023, Texas v Washington, College Football Playoff Edition

[Huskyfan1997 204]

Question: If UT is not able to bully around the offensive line of UW and Dillon Johnson runs for 100+ yards, what percentage chance do you give UT of winning?

Only reason I'm asking is because I just rewatched the Michigan State game and Chris Simms said MSU told him going into that game that they felt they could bully us on the lines.  That is a recurring theme amongst all our opponents, no matter how bad they are (and MSU was awful).  They all think they will push around our lines.  35-0, Penix with 375 yards passing and 4 TD ... at halftime vs a Power 5 school.  MSU had to be one of the worst teams around and even they thought they could beat us in the trenches.  UW/Pac-12 line play must have the worst reputation nationwide.  

Please don't take this a trash talking.  Just genuinely curious as to how big that assumption is to your confidence level in winning the game.  There is no doubt that it is very possible that UT could bully us in the trenches.  

[derpyhorndog 2557]

2 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Question: If UT is not able to bully around the offensive line of UW and Dillon Johnson runs for 100+ yards, what percentage chance do you give UT of winning?

Only reason I'm asking is because I just rewatched the Michigan State game and Chris Simms said MSU told him going into that game that they felt they could bully us on the lines.  That is a recurring theme amongst all our opponents, no matter how bad they are (and MSU was awful).  They all think they will push around our lines.  35-0, Penix with 375 yards passing and 4 TD ... at halftime vs a Power 5 school.  MSU had to be one of the worst teams around and even they thought they could beat us in the trenches.  UW/Pac-12 line play must have the worst reputation nationwide.  

Please don't take this a trash talking.  Just genuinely curious as to how big that assumption is to your confidence level in winning the game.  There is no doubt that it is very possible that UT could bully us in the trenches.  

IMHO, if we don't get relatively consistent pressure, we're fucked. Defer to you as to whether that qualifies as "bullying."

[PhillyHorn1 79]

1 hour ago, MikeDamone said:

  I didn’t steal shit, fucko.    You don’t want any of this, trust me 

Pretty sure this is the other way around. I assume you're actually 5'8" and 150 soaking wet. Which you probably are constantly considering where you live, and you're a pussy. But keep talking shit on a football forum 🙄. This whole interaction from you reminds of this: What the fuck did you just fucking say about me, you little bitch? I'll have you know I graduated top of my class in the Navy Seals, and I've been involved in numerous secret raids on Al-Quaeda, and I have over 300 confirmed kills. I am trained in gorilla warfare and I'm the top sniper in the entire US armed forces. You are nothing to me but just another target. I will wipe you the fuck out with precision the likes of which has never been seen before on this Earth, mark my fucking words. You think you can get away with saying that shit to me over the Internet? Think again, fucker. As we speak I am contacting my secret network of spies across the USA and your IP is being traced right now so you better prepare for the storm, maggot. The storm that wipes out the pathetic little thing you call your life. You're fucking dead, kid. I can be anywhere, anytime, and I can kill you in over seven hundred ways, and that's just with my bare hands. Not only am I extensively trained in unarmed combat, but I have access to the entire arsenal of the United States Marine Corps and I will use it to its full extent to wipe your miserable ass off the face of the continent, you little shit. If only you could have known what unholy retribution your little "clever" comment was about to bring down upon you, maybe you would have held your fucking tongue. But you couldn't, you didn't, and now you're paying the price, you goddamn idiot. I will shit fury all over you and you will drown in it. You're fucking dead, kiddo.

[ITHorn 801]

Texas has faced 2 of the top 3 backs in the country and 4 of the top 15 and held all four under 100 yards. I really would be shocked if Washington is able to run the ball the way that Husky fans claim is going to happen. If Johnson busts a 60 yarder off a broken play, it may be possible but otherwise Washington is going to have to do its damage through the air. 

Edited December 18, 2023 by ITHorn

[sushihorn 3233]

1 minute ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Question: If UT is not able to bully around the offensive line of UW and Dillon Johnson runs for 100+ yards, what percentage chance do you give UT of winning?

Only reason I'm asking is because I just rewatched the Michigan State game and Chris Simms said MSU told him going into that game that they felt they could bully us on the lines.  That is a recurring theme amongst all our opponents, no matter how bad they are (and MSU was awful).  They all think they will push around our lines.  35-0, Penix with 375 yards passing and 4 TD ... at halftime vs a Power 5 school.  MSU had to be one of the worst teams around and even they thought they could beat us in the trenches.  UW/Pac-12 line play must have the worst reputation nationwide.  

Please don't take this a trash talking.  Just genuinely curious as to how big that assumption is to your confidence level in winning the game.  There is no doubt that it is very possible that UT could bully us in the trenches.  

We are not responsible for the delusional fan bases of terrible teams. 
 

Texas has the best interior DL in FBS and it’s not close. The last 100 yard rusher against us was 12 games ago. Alabama couldn’t do it. The Doak Walker winner went 2.6 yards per carry. It’s the strongest and most reliable element on a top team. 
 

It’s kinda like asking what would happen if Penix completed less than half his passes, except much less likely since he already did that this season. 

[Sonics_1993 29]

22 minutes ago, thunderlounge said:

 

So one culture that uses racial and homophobic slurs in some type of severely outdated, extremely juvenile, IQ of a salad bar (or less), is on par with a well educated, culturally  aligned one?

 

I think you're reading my opinion on PNW culture more broadly than I intended it. Outwardly expressing genuine hope and excitement about something is weird there. Expressing pessimism and cynicism is much more normal. In my opinion, that accounts for a lot of why a board populated by people from the PNW tends toward cynical trolling of outsiders. It doesn't mean people in the PNW don't feel hope and excitement, it just means that it tends to be expressed in private or among close friends. When you--as a Longhorn fan--want to talk about the Husky game with them, they're going to avoid engaging in that discussion in an honest way, because it risks requiring a public expression of hope and excitement, which is taboo.

The substantive nature of the expression of trolling is not what I'm describing as endemic to PNW culture (there are, for example, homophobic posts by UT fans in this very thread. I wouldn't call that substance to be endemic to UT fans either).

[troph 24857]

15 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Question: If UT is not able to bully around the offensive line of UW and Dillon Johnson runs for 100+ yards, what percentage chance do you give UT of winning?

Only reason I'm asking is because I just rewatched the Michigan State game and Chris Simms said MSU told him going into that game that they felt they could bully us on the lines.  That is a recurring theme amongst all our opponents, no matter how bad they are (and MSU was awful).  They all think they will push around our lines.  35-0, Penix with 375 yards passing and 4 TD ... at halftime vs a Power 5 school.  MSU had to be one of the worst teams around and even they thought they could beat us in the trenches.  UW/Pac-12 line play must have the worst reputation nationwide.  

Please don't take this a trash talking.  Just genuinely curious as to how big that assumption is to your confidence level in winning the game.  There is no doubt that it is very possible that UT could bully us in the trenches.  

If Texas can’t stop the run at best it’s first to 40 / offense with the ball last sort of game. at worst Texas get trounced. I don’t think 100+ is the number though. I can see Texas winning with only Dillon getting 100-110, but if total rushing creeps up higher then Texas is in deep shit. IMO.

i also think WA way underestimates the pressure that’s going to be on their offense to score every drive. That’s not something Texas allows generally. So there is pressure on the Texas D but a corresponding pressure on WA’s O as well. Could lead to mistakes. Could lead to 40 points.

Edited December 18, 2023 by troph

[kevwun 15798]

I like that the Washington center is both undersized and young.

[troph 24857]

6 minutes ago, Sonics_1993 said:

I think you're reading my opinion on PNW culture more broadly than I intended it. Outwardly expressing genuine hope and excitement about something is weird there. Expressing pessimism and cynicism is much more normal. In my opinion, that accounts for a lot of why a board populated by people from the PNW tends toward cynical trolling of outsiders. It doesn't mean people in the PNW don't feel hope and excitement, it just means that it tends to be expressed in private or among close friends. When you--as a Longhorn fan--want to talk about the Husky game with them, they're going to avoid engaging in that discussion in an honest way, because it risks requiring a public expression of hope and excitement, which is taboo.

The substantive nature of the expression of trolling is not what I'm describing as endemic to PNW culture (there are, for example, homophobic posts by UT fans in this very thread. I wouldn't call that substance to be endemic to UT fans either).

Obsessions with dicks is not homophobic. Our fucking main building is one of the most classic phallic symbols in all of the US, we love dicks. 

[Huskyfan1997 204]

9 minutes ago, ITHorn said:

Texas has faced 2 of the top 3 backs in the country and 4 of the top 15 and held all four under 100 yards. I really would be shocked if Washington is able to run the ball the way that Husky fans claim is going to happen. If Johnson busts a 60 yarder off a broken play, it may be possible but otherwise Washington is going to have to do its damage through the air. 

For the record, I am not claiming that will happen.  Just genuinely curious if you guys think that it will be a close game if it does happen, otherwise you guys should win reasonably comfortably?

The only thing that gives me hope against your DL is that we don't really run a traditional run game at the interior line.  Our rushing attack is more schemed (e.g. 49ers) and likely will not test your interior DL unless we've schemed to put them in a bad position.

And I totally agree that the UT offense vs the UW defense is greatly underestimated.  I have zero confidence we can get many stops of that offense.  Worthy plays way faster on the field than any of our players.  

[Sonics_1993 29]

9 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

We are not responsible for the delusional fan bases of terrible teams. 
 

Texas has the best interior DL in FBS and it’s not close. The last 100 yard rusher against us was 12 games ago. Alabama couldn’t do it. The Doak Walker winner went 2.6 yards per carry. It’s the strongest and most reliable element on a top team. 
 

It’s kinda like asking what would happen if Penix completed less than half his passes, except much less likely since he already did that this season. 

Wasn't that also true last year? UT allowed 1 100-yd rusher, and even Alabama wasn't able to hit that mark. UW still had a 100 yd back in the Alamo Bowl getting 7.7 ypc.

Instead of framing it in terms of hopeless optimism, a different question might be this "if UW beats the trend against UT this year by a similar proportion by which it beat the trend last year, how do you see the game going?"

[LonghornSean 4008]

Just realized, two weeks down, two weeks to go.

[Huskyfan1997 204]

20 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

We are not responsible for the delusional fan bases of terrible teams. 
 

Texas has the best interior DL in FBS and it’s not close. The last 100 yard rusher against us was 12 games ago. Alabama couldn’t do it. The Doak Walker winner went 2.6 yards per carry. It’s the strongest and most reliable element on a top team. 
 

It’s kinda like asking what would happen if Penix completed less than half his passes, except much less likely since he already did that this season. 

For the record, that was not from the fanbase.  That was a direct line from the MSU team itself, according to Chris Simms who was color commentary during the game.  

My only point was that every team, no matter how good or bad, thinks they are going to beat us in the trenches.  No doubt, some teams have.  But during the biggest of games, our line has stepped up their level of play.  

[hook me 2103]

3 minutes ago, Sonics_1993 said:

Wasn't that also true last year? UT allowed 1 100-yd rusher, and even Alabama wasn't able to hit that mark. UW still had a 100 yd back in the Alamo Bowl getting 7.7 ypc.

Instead of framing it in terms of hopeless optimism, a different question might be this "if UW beats the trend against UT this year by a similar proportion by which it beat the trend last year, how do you see the game going?"

The 42 yard run in the first quarter skews an otherwise decent, but not great, running attack. Popping 1 or 2 runs isn't going to change anything just like hitting 1 or 2 passes won't change anything. If y'all have consistent success running the ball & force us to commit safeties to help stop the run then we're in trouble. Our best hope defensively is stopping your running game with our DL getting penetration and clogging up the holes & playing our best game of the year in the secondary. We've done the former fairly consistently this season against a lot of different types of offenses and RBs. We haven't done the latter very well at all & have been greatly aided by QBs not making very good passes. Sometimes our rush helps force the issue, but I don't think Penix is going to be missing open WRs very often.

[Atticus 3976]

13 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

For the record, I am not claiming that will happen.  Just genuinely curious if you guys think that it will be a close game if it does happen, otherwise you guys should win reasonably comfortably?

The only thing that gives me hope against your DL is that we don't really run a traditional run game at the interior line.  Our rushing attack is more schemed (e.g. 49ers) and likely will not test your interior DL unless we've schemed to put them in a bad position.

And I totally agree that the UT offense vs the UW defense is greatly underestimated.  I have zero confidence we can get many stops of that offense.  Worthy plays way faster on the field than any of our players.  

TCU and OU actually had success running the ball against us. But OU needed the QB run to do it. TCU took advantage of some bad substitutions and overzealousness on the edges to get their runs. It will be interesting to see how many snaps they give to Sweat and Murphy in this game. Carter and Collins should provide some solid backup snaps too. I would like to see Broughton getting most of his snaps at Jack in the playoffs.

If you guys find success against the run, I imagine we'll get more aggressive with the calls. The theme of this recent Texas onslaught has been aggression and physicality.

[Mitch Cumsteen 18550]

20 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

For the record, I am not claiming that will happen.  Just genuinely curious if you guys think that it will be a close game if it does happen, otherwise you guys should win reasonably comfortably?

The only thing that gives me hope against your DL is that we don't really run a traditional run game at the interior line.  Our rushing attack is more schemed (e.g. 49ers) and likely will not test your interior DL unless we've schemed to put them in a bad position.

And I totally agree that the UT offense vs the UW defense is greatly underestimated.  I have zero confidence we can get many stops of that offense.  Worthy plays way faster on the field than any of our players.  

I thought UW dominated both lines in the Alamobowl last year. If Texas can't stop the run, barring a bunch of weird shit like turnovers or special teams mishaps, they have next to no chance of winning. Texas has to make UW one dimensional, they have to tackle in space, and they can't blow coverages. That's the game, to me. 

[ITHorn 801]

18 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

For the record, I am not claiming that will happen.  Just genuinely curious if you guys think that it will be a close game if it does happen, otherwise you guys should win reasonably comfortably?

The only thing that gives me hope against your DL is that we don't really run a traditional run game at the interior line.  Our rushing attack is more schemed (e.g. 49ers) and likely will not test your interior DL unless we've schemed to put them in a bad position.

And I totally agree that the UT offense vs the UW defense is greatly underestimated.  I have zero confidence we can get many stops of that offense.  Worthy plays way faster on the field than any of our players.  

I think that characterizing the Texas D line as simple brute strength is a pretty drastic oversimplification of how they get pressure. I would be thrilled if Washington tried to out scheme and force a running game on this D line as it will take the ball out of the hands of the guys you have who can actually do damage and tilt the game. 

[hook me 2103]

39 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Question: If UT is not able to bully around the offensive line of UW and Dillon Johnson runs for 100+ yards, what percentage chance do you give UT of winning?

Only reason I'm asking is because I just rewatched the Michigan State game and Chris Simms said MSU told him going into that game that they felt they could bully us on the lines.  That is a recurring theme amongst all our opponents, no matter how bad they are (and MSU was awful).  They all think they will push around our lines.  35-0, Penix with 375 yards passing and 4 TD ... at halftime vs a Power 5 school.  MSU had to be one of the worst teams around and even they thought they could beat us in the trenches.  UW/Pac-12 line play must have the worst reputation nationwide.  

Please don't take this a trash talking.  Just genuinely curious as to how big that assumption is to your confidence level in winning the game.  There is no doubt that it is very possible that UT could bully us in the trenches.  

Yeah, MSU being complete dogshit is probably not a great example, but I get where you're coming from. Going to Tuscaloosa all anyone could talk about was how Bama was going to run it down our throats because of their dominant OL & our unproven DL. They barely broke 100 yards as a team. KSU averages 200 yards rushing per game and had 30 vs us and they had to completely abandon it. Same thing with OSU. It'll be one of the things to watch, but y'all don't HAVE to run it to beat us. KSU almost beat us with 30 yards rushing (of course Ewers wasn't playing & we gave them 3 short fields). OSU had plenty of success through the air and could have had a lot more. If we're stopping your running game with minimal issues then I don't think it changes just a whole lot. UW is well in the 100's in terms of how often y'all rush, though you do have decent success when you do run. So if we stop it, not a big deal for y'all & par for the course for us. If y'all are running the ball well enough for us to have to commit extra bodies to stop it then that's the recipe for a shootout or a beatdown depending on how accurate Ewers is.

[sushihorn 3233]

19 minutes ago, Sonics_1993 said:

Wasn't that also true last year? UT allowed 1 100-yd rusher, and even Alabama wasn't able to hit that mark. UW still had a 100 yd back in the Alamo Bowl getting 7.7 ypc.

Instead of framing it in terms of hopeless optimism, a different question might be this "if UW beats the trend against UT this year by a similar proportion by which it beat the trend last year, how do you see the game going?"

The top back for Alabama averaged over 16 YPC in 2022. He only got the ball 6 times. 
 

We had no idea what to expect last year’s bowl. The core of our offense was ripped out and the defense damaged by opt outs. No one had seen such a weak Texas squad play in any game of the 2022 season. This year no one is opting out nor does the offense need to be totally restructured. Barring major injuries in practice, we will likely see the full strength version of regular season Texas. That’s why I limit my speculation to demonstrated range of possibilities. 

[Huskyfan1997 204]

2 minutes ago, ITHorn said:

I think that characterizing the Texas D line as simple brute strength is a pretty drastic oversimplification of how they get pressure. I would be thrilled if Washington tried to out scheme and force a running game on this D line as it will take the ball out of the hands of the guys you have who can actually do damage and tilt the game. 

True.  I am no X's and O's expert so I'm only making observations at a casual fan level.  Maybe our running scheme will play into your advantage.  I really have no idea.  

Like I said earlier, I'm thinking this will be a close game that hinges on an untimely mistake or penalty or two.  No idea who will win, but that's why we look forward to this game.  

Another thing that gives me some hope is that imo, Dillon Johnson is a way more capable running back than Tualapapa was last year.   

[troph 24857]

9 minutes ago, ITHorn said:

I think that characterizing the Texas D line as simple brute strength is a pretty drastic oversimplification of how they get pressure. I would be thrilled if Washington tried to out scheme and force a running game on this D line as it will take the ball out of the hands of the guys you have who can actually do damage and tilt the game. 

Texas DEs set outside containment really, really well. Interior DLs blow up the middle eliminating many cut back lanes and prevent pulling guards and tackles from being as successful. It's strength, discipline and then speed on the edge. and Quite frankly, Murphy is extremely athletic and quick for a guy at 300lb (but I don't think he's an Army Ranger or a College Basketball Player so there is that). Sweat is too but his athleticism results in double teams being pushed back into the backfield and the elimination of certain plays because of the necessary double team or because of his penetration. He certainly isn't chasing many down. Texas front seven will be an order of magnitude more disciplined against the run than anything Oregon threw at Washington. To me that is the biggest factor going into this against the run.

I also agree a single run for 30-50 yards is irrelevant. but 10 carries for 5 yards each is something to be worried about, but that just hasn't happened this year in a league that is on par with the Pac 12 but more physical and more run oriented.  so a 100 yard rusher isn't really the issue. it's the average per carry excluding 1-2 big plays (if any).

Edited December 18, 2023 by troph

[Codaxx 5766]

11 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

I thought UW dominated both lines in the Alamobowl last year. If Texas can't stop the run, barring a bunch of weird shit like turnovers or special teams mishaps, they have next to no chance of winning. Texas has to make UW one dimensional, they have to tackle in space, and they can't blow coverages. That's the game, to me. 

Texas is the better team. They have multiple ways to win this game.  Love Texas in a 5 game series, but this is 1 game and Washington's #1 strength is Texas's weakness. I am pretty confident in  Sweat and Murphy to at least limit the Washington run game. 90% of the talk about this game has been Washington offense vs the Texas defense.  I think this game is probably decided by the Texas OL vs the Washington front 7. If Texas gets the run game going (consistency, not 1-2 big plays), I dont see a way Washington wins. 

Edited December 18, 2023 by Codaxx

[Sgt Hulk 13786]

Our D line and secondary can go OU this game.  Thy were peaking at the end of the season 

[troph 24857]

6 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

Texas is the better team. They have multiple ways to win this game.  Love Texas in a 5 game series, but this is 1 game and Washington's #1 strength is Texas's weakness. I am pretty confident in  Sweat and Murphy to at least limit the Washington run game. 90% of the talk about this game has been Washington offense vs the Texas defense.  I think this game is probably decided by the Texas OL vs the Washington front 7. If Texas gets the run game going, I dont see a way Washington wins. 

if Texas offense shows up on all cylinders like Tech and oSu it should be lights out for WA. Texas D should be able to get 3-4 quality stops and 1 TO.  That's 49/52 to 34/37 type score with Penix throwing all over the field. I'm expecting either a dog fight (no pun intended) going either direction, or Texas goes up and then gets conservative in the third quarter leading to a tight fourth quarter if Texas wins, so I don't see those larger margin scores as likely. I see 38-34, 34-31 type game going either direction. I don't see WA with enough defense to pull away from the horns by more than one score.

But the failure to really see any analysis on Washington's defense against Texas' offense is a real head scratcher.

Edited December 18, 2023 by troph

[Wulaw Horn 19106]

2 hours ago, Sonics_1993 said:

Husky Explainer:

1. What's up with hardcorehusky.com?
   • It's a close-knit group of Husky fans who have been posting together on a progression of different sites for 20+ years. It isn't representative of the husky fan base in general for a bunch of reasons. It's nominally a place to talk Husky football, and the people there genuinely are fans of the team, but it is primarily a social organization for friends (and antagonists) to take pot shots at each other loosely organized around current events in Husky football. The posters there have a schtick of internet trolling, which is no doubt juvenile. They genuinely do have affection for each other, and a lot of them are knowledgeable about football, but as a cultural matter it's uncool there to be serious, genuine, and hopeful. You can be serious and genuine, but not hopeful. You can be hopeful and ironic. But genuine expressions of positive emotion read as naive and pollyannic in the Pacific Northwest, whereas genuine expressions of angst, depression, cynicism, etc. are treated almost as normative goods in their own right. If you understand that, you'll understand the HH posters coming here. They know they're being dumb. They know you think they're being dumb. They know it's a waste of time. They know it shouldn't be funny. They still think it's funny.
2. Why do UW fans hate Sark?
   • Short version is that they don't, but it is genuinely true that Sark was an alcoholic serial adulterer during his time at UW, though his true sin from Husky perspective is that he let his vices impact his coaching. However much better he was than Ty Willingham, that's a remarkably low bar to clear and it is indisputable that his drinking and cavorting hurt the team's performance. Still, most Husky fans recognize him as a step on the path to a better future. The hate toward Sark tends to come primarily from the Hardcore Husky board, which as noted above is distinct from the broader Husky fan base. Part of that has to do with the fact that HH's existence stems from a break with a different Husky message board during the Sark era at UW, and the people in charge at that board were adamantly pro-Sark folks who shut down criticism of Sark. To this day, there is bad blood between the HH folks and that other board, and Sark becoming a good coach who has reformed himself would mean HH is open to a victory dance from that other board's leadership, which is intolerable to the HH group.
3. Why do people think UW is good enough to beat UT?
   • To start with, it's true. UT is also good enough to beat UW. UT's d-line will probably be stouter than any UW has faced. UW's offense will be more potent and creative than any UT has faced. They're aren't perfect comps for either team on the other's schedule this year, which is good because that's the fun of the playoffs.
   • If you want a read on what makes UW a tough matchup, it obviously starts with Penix. He's got a huge arm, he makes decisions fast, he doesn't get rattled, he's really good when the team is behind the sticks, and he is really hard to sack. To that point, he's a pocket passer who throws a ton, and he's taken very few sacks this year. Same was true last year. UT will get its pressures, but it would be a very big win for UT if the horns can actually get a bunch of sacks. Beyond Penix, UW has really good skill guys. It's not just hard to cover the wideouts, but they're very tough in contested catches. Dillon Johnson is a 1,000 yard rusher on a team that doesn't try to run first. UW isn't going to run up the gut against UT, but something it does well against tough D-lines is use the whole field in the passing game with few substitutions to get the big guys tired, and then run opportunistically. Doesn't mean UW is going to be dominant on the ground, but don't expect them to try to run between the tackles and then abandon the run entirely.
   • If you want to understand the optimism of general Husky fans, it mostly stems from weird quirks in the season. UW's offense looked great the first three games of the year. It then lost Jalen McMillan (knee), Rome Odunze (broken ribs and a collapsed lung (played through it and didn't miss time but obv. not 100%)), Penix was sick through multiple games and looked awful, Bernard and Jackson missed time being hurt, UW played a bunch of crazy weather games, etc. The defense also had tons of injuries in the secondary (particularly safety). In any event, UW won all its games but the wins were unimpressive compared against early season games, and Husky fans themselves openly questioned how good the team was. The Pac12 championship game saw all those hurt players healthy at the same time for the first time since Michigan State and the team came out and looked like its old self against Oregon, which has people feeling optimistic.

Thanks. 
what you should know about this board is @South Austin’s mom is a craven slut that everyone here has banged and we all are tacky enough to remind him of that. 
 

[Atticus 3976]

34 minutes ago, Sonics_1993 said:

Wasn't that also true last year? UT allowed 1 100-yd rusher, and even Alabama wasn't able to hit that mark. UW still had a 100 yd back in the Alamo Bowl getting 7.7 ypc.

Instead of framing it in terms of hopeless optimism, a different question might be this "if UW beats the trend against UT this year by a similar proportion by which it beat the trend last year, how do you see the game going?"

Big difference between last year and this year is that as a team, Texas' opponents were regularly running for more than 100 yards last year. This year, there are multiple games where opponents didn't go over 50. There were even 1-2 games where opponents ran for single digit yards all game.

The run defense is much improved. Sweat gets most of the attention, but Murphy is just as dominant if not more disruptive. Collins can flash on any given play. Carter became more effective as the year went on too. Those guys will be fresher than they've been in a while.

[Wulaw Horn 19106]

2 hours ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Question: If UT is not able to bully around the offensive line of UW and Dillon Johnson runs for 100+ yards, what percentage chance do you give UT of winning?

Only reason I'm asking is because I just rewatched the Michigan State game and Chris Simms said MSU told him going into that game that they felt they could bully us on the lines.  That is a recurring theme amongst all our opponents, no matter how bad they are (and MSU was awful).  They all think they will push around our lines.  35-0, Penix with 375 yards passing and 4 TD ... at halftime vs a Power 5 school.  MSU had to be one of the worst teams around and even they thought they could beat us in the trenches.  UW/Pac-12 line play must have the worst reputation nationwide.  

Please don't take this a trash talking.  Just genuinely curious as to how big that assumption is to your confidence level in winning the game.  There is no doubt that it is very possible that UT could bully us in the trenches.  

It’s a coin flip if we can’t beat you up with our defensive line against your offensive line. We have enough advantage on yall that I have no doubt we will score plenty- so that game becomes a 42-38 type shoot out. If our DLine gets consistent pressure while shutting down the run game yall have almost zero chance. 
I think that’s what @immamacwas talking about re fragility. 

Edited December 18, 2023 by Wulaw Horn

[troph 24857]

3 minutes ago, Atticus said:

Big difference between last year and this year is that as a team, Texas' opponents were regularly running for more than 100 yards last year. This year, there are multiple games where opponents didn't go over 50. There were even 1-2 games where opponents ran for single digit yards all game.

The run defense is much improved. Sweat gets most of the attention, but Murphy is just as dominant if not more disruptive. Collins can flash on any given play. Carter became more effective as the year went on too. Those guys will be fresher than they've been in a while.

and Burke has been banged up but should be healthy and Anthony Hill (two stacks as a true freshman at Alabama) has only gotten better and better. Jaylon Ford has anchored the middle and is not opting out. It's a salty front seven. one of the best I've ever seen at Texas and I've been following the horns since 1983 (that defense was better). But the Big 12 sucks and isn't the Pac-12 so there is that. geez.

Edited December 18, 2023 by troph

[Wulaw Horn 19106]

53 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

For the record, I am not claiming that will happen.  Just genuinely curious if you guys think that it will be a close game if it does happen, otherwise you guys should win reasonably comfortably?

The only thing that gives me hope against your DL is that we don't really run a traditional run game at the interior line.  Our rushing attack is more schemed (e.g. 49ers) and likely will not test your interior DL unless we've schemed to put them in a bad position.

And I totally agree that the UT offense vs the UW defense is greatly underestimated.  I have zero confidence we can get many stops of that offense.  Worthy plays way faster on the field than any of our players.  

To be clear/ I don’t think running game has shit all to do with us winning this game. I’m taking it as a given that yall will not run the ball on us. Nobody has. If you do have some success of the 4 or 5 yards a pop variety that could be considered good for us- I view anytime y’all run instead of pass as a win for us- so if your coach gets enamored with 4 and 5 yard runs that could keep the passing down- one errant pass on 3/2 after 2 four yard runs is more likely to me than yall lining up and throwing 3 times and us stopping yall. 
our line needs to dominant with interior pressure. Penix is awesome. He’s also not going to take off running and he’s weak in the pocket so if we can do that I think it’s our only chance of consistently stopping yall. 
I think we will be able to thus I think it’s a fairly comfortable Texas win, but if that assumption is wrong (and it might well be) it’s going to be a fucking dogfight. 

Edited December 18, 2023 by Wulaw Horn

[Huskyfan1997 204]

I'm in general agreement that if 1 team wins comfortably, it's much more likely to be UT. 

Thanks for the responses to my question.  It's just that we fans hear the same line before every big game.  UW is finesse and will get bullied in the trenches.  Yet somehow after the games we always hear "UW strength on the lines was very surprising".  At some point it has not be not surprising anymore. 

[Sonics_1993 29]

31 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

For the record, I am not claiming that will happen.  Just genuinely curious if you guys think that it will be a close game if it does happen, otherwise you guys should win reasonably comfortably?

The only thing that gives me hope against your DL is that we don't really run a traditional run game at the interior line.  Our rushing attack is more schemed (e.g. 49ers) and likely will not test your interior DL unless we've schemed to put them in a bad position.

And I totally agree that the UT offense vs the UW defense is greatly underestimated.  I have zero confidence we can get many stops of that offense.  Worthy plays way faster on the field than any of our players.  

1. I don't agree that a 100 yard rushing attack is necessary to avoid UT having a reasonably comfortable win. There are plenty of ways to get the type of benefit a run game provides without having to do it all on the ground. We've seen tunnel screens to Odunze, slants to McMillan, and quick hit contested passes to the one-on-one receiver on the outside (whether that be Odunze or Polk) be really effective when teams try to sell out against the pass. I agree that if UT can get consistent pressure with 4 linemen, then UW is in trouble. I feel comfortable that the OL and Penix can avoid that, so the next issue is whether Grubb can be effective at keeping the LBs from being able to sell out on the pass consistently. It'd be nice if Johnson could get good yardage on the ground for that purpose, but it's not the only way to skin a cat.
2. I have plenty of confidence that UW can get stops on UT, just like I think UT is going to get more stops than it seems people are giving credit for against UW. The last game UW played was against an Oregon team that has a lot of talent (over the last 5 classes, Oregon = ~9th vs. Texas ~7th in 247 composite rankings). UW's defense was extremely disruptive against an offense that was blowing people out regularly coming into the game (UW was a 9.5 point underdog in Vegas for the game). Beyond that, even with injuries, UW has been really hard to score on in the 2nd half and has given up more than 7 points in the 4th quarter only once all year (13 in garbage time against Cal).

I don't think UW is going to blow UT out or vice versa. It should be a close game, but I don't think UW needs to change its identity to win any more than I think UT does. Whoever executes better (especially when it comes to penalties and turnovers) will probably win.

[troph 24857]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

To be clear/ I don’t think running game has shit all to do with us winning this game. I’m taking it as a given that yall will not run the ball on us. Nobody has. If you do have some success of the 4 or 5 yards a pop variety that could be considered good for us- I view anytime y’all run instead of pass as a win for us- so if your coach gets enamored with 4 and 5 yard runs that could keep the passing down- one errant pass on 3/2 after 2 four yard runs is more likely to me than yall lining up and throwing 3 times and us stopping yall. 
our line needs to dominate with interior pressure. Penix is awesome. He’s also not going to take off running and he’s weak in the pocket so if we can do that I think it’s our only chance of consistently stopping yall. 
I think we will be able to thus I think it’s a fairly comfortable Texas win, but if that assumption is wrong (and it might well be) it’s going to be a fucking dogfight. 

how many third and longs, how many 4th and enoughs can Texas create?  we need enough to get 3-4 quality stops and 1 turn over. Penix completes for a first down, forget it and move on. Every set of fresh downs is a 4 down set where Texas needs to put WA on their heels, then get the stop. Every time WA gets a new set of downs, forget it, start over. If Texas defense plays well, run, pass or whatever, Washington will have 8+ 3rd and longs or 4th and enough where Texas can get the needed stops and a turn over. This is it. That's the game.

[sushihorn 3233]

19 minutes ago, troph said:

But the failure to really see any analysis on Washington's defense against Texas' offense is a real head scratcher.

Challenge accepted. 

[South Austin 52519]

18 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Thanks. 
what you should know about this board is @South Austin’s mom is a craven slut that everyone here has banged and we all are tacky enough to remind him of that. 
 

She liked you more when you were fatter.

[Wulaw Horn 19106]

1 minute ago, troph said:

how many third and longs, how many 4th and enoughs can Texas create?  we need enough to get 3-4 quality stops and 1 turn over. Penix completes for a first down, forget it and move on. Every set of fresh downs is a 4 down set where Texas needs to put WA on their heels, then get the stop. Every time WA gets a new set of downs, forget it, start over. If Texas defense plays well, run, pass or whatever, Washington will have 8+ 3rd and longs or 4th and enough where Texas can get the needed stops and a turn over. This is it. That's the game.

Anything that’s tops Washington from throwing 50 or 60 times is welcomed in my mind. If that’s from a little rope a dope on the ground that’s fine. If that’s because we get some big negative stops that force points or turnovers that’s fine. I just think you want to avoid them getting in rhythm early against us through the air. You’ve seen sark get Quinn in rhythm early and we are pretty much impossible to stop. 
agree with you about shrugging our shoulders anytime they get a 1st down and trying to inflict negative plays. I’d even rather they throw it over our heads once or twice, strike up the fight song and then have to kick off to us- I’d take that more than death by a thousand paper cuts we ga e up last year where they kept the ball away from us all 2nd half. 

[troph 24857]

4 minutes ago, Sonics_1993 said:

1. I don't agree that a 100 yard rushing attack is necessary to avoid UT having a reasonably comfortable win. There are plenty of ways to get the type of benefit a run game provides without having to do it all on the ground. We've seen tunnel screens to Odunze, slants to McMillan, and quick hit contested passes to the one-on-one receiver on the outside (whether that be Odunze or Polk) be really effective when teams try to sell out against the pass. I agree that if UT can get consistent pressure with 4 linemen, then UW is in trouble. I feel comfortable that the OL and Penix can avoid that, so the next issue is whether Grubb can be effective at keeping the LBs from being able to sell out on the pass consistently. It'd be nice if Johnson could get good yardage on the ground for that purpose, but it's not the only way to skin a cat.
2. I have plenty of confidence that UW can get stops on UT, just like I think UT is going to get more stops than it seems people are giving credit for against UW. The last game UW played was against an Oregon team that has a lot of talent (over the last 5 classes, Oregon = ~9th vs. Texas ~7th in 247 composite rankings). UW's defense was extremely disruptive against an offense that was blowing people out regularly coming into the game (UW was a 9.5 point underdog in Vegas for the game). Beyond that, even with injuries, UW has been really hard to score on in the 2nd half and has given up more than 7 points in the 4th quarter only once all year (13 in garbage time against Cal).

I don't think UW is going to blow UT out or vice versa. It should be a close game, but I don't think UW needs to change its identity to win any more than I think UT does. Whoever executes better (especially when it comes to penalties and turnovers) will probably win.

Texas won't change its identity at all. I'm fairly confident the offense will continue to be balanced and will score north of 30. I also think the Texas defense is built to stop the run, make a team one dimensional and then see what happens. I think Texas secondary is going to end up near the top of what you've faced in the Pac 12 which means WA will score. But saying the Texas secondary is a weakness does not mean those kids can't make plays. Penix throws balls up for grabs. Our kids have won their fair share of battles, stolen some picks, jumped some routes. I think people are making wild assumptions about how "weak" the Texas secondary might be in this game.  I think the same can be said for WA's defense. I suspect some intense play and WA making some big plays too on defense. It should be a spectacular game.

[Codaxx 5766]

4 minutes ago, Sonics_1993 said:

1. I don't agree that a 100 yard rushing attack is necessary to avoid UT having a reasonably comfortable win. There are plenty of ways to get the type of benefit a run game provides without having to do it all on the ground. We've seen tunnel screens to Odunze, slants to McMillan, and quick hit contested passes to the one-on-one receiver on the outside (whether that be Odunze or Polk) be really effective when teams try to sell out against the pass. I agree that if UT can get consistent pressure with 4 linemen, then UW is in trouble. I feel comfortable that the OL and Penix can avoid that, so the next issue is whether Grubb can be effective at keeping the LBs from being able to sell out on the pass consistently. It'd be nice if Johnson could get good yardage on the ground for that purpose, but it's not the only way to skin a cat.
2. I have plenty of confidence that UW can get stops on UT, just like I think UT is going to get more stops than it seems people are giving credit for against UW. The last game UW played was against an Oregon team that has a lot of talent (over the last 5 classes, Oregon = ~9th vs. Texas ~7th in 247 composite rankings). UW's defense was extremely disruptive against an offense that was blowing people out regularly coming into the game (UW was a 9.5 point underdog in Vegas for the game). Beyond that, even with injuries, UW has been really hard to score on in the 2nd half and has given up more than 7 points in the 4th quarter only once all year (13 in garbage time against Cal).

I don't think UW is going to blow UT out or vice versa. It should be a close game, but I don't think UW needs to change its identity to win any more than I think UT does. Whoever executes better (especially when it comes to penalties and turnovers) will probably win.

Lets be honest about the Oregon game.. Oregon averaged 6.72 yards/play in the rematch (6.44 in the first game). They ran the ball 20 times for 124 yards. That was 6.2 yards. Big difference was Oregon running the ball 40 times for 204 in the first game. Big difference between the games was Oregon going 3-10 on 3rd down in the rematch, opposed to 10-16 in the 1st game. Washington defense was not very good in either game, but they made timely plays in the Championship game. 

[Wulaw Horn 19106]

1 minute ago, South Austin said:

She liked you more when you were fatter.

Well done sir. Well done. 

[troph 24857]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Anything that’s tops Washington from throwing 50 or 60 times is welcomed in my mind. If that’s from a little rope a dope on the ground that’s fine. If that’s because we get some big negative stops that force points or turnovers that’s fine. I just think you want to avoid them getting in rhythm early against us through the air. You’ve seen sark get Quinn in rhythm early and we are pretty much impossible to stop. 
agree with you about shrugging our shoulders anytime they get a 1st down and trying to inflict negative plays. I’d even rather they throw it over our heads once or twice, strike up the fight song and then have to kick off to us- I’d take that more than death by a thousand paper cuts we ga e up last year where they kept the ball away from us all 2nd half. 

COMPLIMENTARY FOOTBALL!!!???!!!

I would hope WA never abandons the run which is what I think you are saying, KSU was nightmare fuel (I'm hoping we also weren't expecting it which is why it was so difficult), but I'd still rather stop the run and make them predictable and then either we can win knowing what's coming at us or we can't.  But the reset each first down and look to win just four plays in a row can happen any number of ways from penalties, to sacks, incomplete pass, stop the run, poor execution on their part, big play on ours, bad play calling, etc. and I agree if our offense is rolling, it's way harder for them to get into rhythm.

[Huskyfan1997 204]

Yeah, has the potential to be a fantastic game and can't wait. 

UO passed for 300+ yards and ran for 200+ yards in the 1st game, so our defense can be had.  Any team that does that should win.  

One of my favorite things about the UW team this year is just the fear of how dangerous they are.  Teams tend to feel like they have to go for it on 4th downs to score enough.  The same is true in reverse in this game.  Both teams can be explosive.  The in-game decisions will be fascinating.  

[Valmy77 13245]

1 hour ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Question: If UT is not able to bully around the offensive line of UW and Dillon Johnson runs for 100+ yards, what percentage chance do you give UT of winning?

Our pass defense has been so suspect at times that I am not entirely sure this situation would make our chances worse.

[Sonics_1993 29]

6 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

Lets be honest about the Oregon game.. Oregon averaged 6.72 yards/play in the rematch (6.44 in the first game). They ran the ball 20 times for 124 yards. That was 6.2 yards. Big difference was Oregon running the ball 40 times for 204 in the first game. Big difference between the games was Oregon going 3-10 on 3rd down in the rematch, opposed to 10-16 in the 1st game. Washington defense was not very good in either game, but they made timely plays in the Championship game. 

One of those runs was for 44 yards by Bo Nix. The other 19 runs went for 80 yards (4.2 ypc). There's been discussion elsewhere in this thread that one or two big runs don't matter if the run game in general struggles. I believe that to be true, and that was what happened in Vegas. Furthermore, Oregon had a really hard time getting YAC on passes short passes out in space, which was due to better coverage from UW. Oregon adjusted and got the offense moving, just like Texas will adjust to whatever UW does, but I wouldn't assume that UW will be shellshocked by the UT offense.

Also, the change in third down conversion rate by Oregon is an argument in favor of UW's defensive improvement. Oregon wasn't lined up against an empty field.

[Codaxx 5766]

2 minutes ago, Sonics_1993 said:

One of those runs was for 44 yards by Bo Nix. The other 19 runs went for 80 yards (4.2 ypc). There's been discussion elsewhere in this thread that one or two big runs don't matter if the run game in general struggles. I believe that to be true, and that was what happened in Vegas. Furthermore, Oregon had a really hard time getting YAC on passes short passes out in space, which was due to better coverage from UW. Oregon adjusted and got the offense moving, just like Texas will adjust to whatever UW does, but I wouldn't assume that UW will be shellshocked by the UT offense.

Also, the change in third down conversion rate by Oregon is an argument in favor of UW's defensive improvement. Oregon wasn't lined up against an empty field.

That is how this generally works. IF you take the best run of the day out and it is still over 4 yards a carry, that is pretty fucking good. That is consistent success running the ball. 

Edited December 18, 2023 by Codaxx

[ousux 5597]

Wasn't that also true last year? UT allowed 1 100-yd rusher, and even Alabama wasn't able to hit that mark. UW still had a 100 yd back in the Alamo Bowl getting 7.7 ypc.
Instead of framing it in terms of hopeless optimism, a different question might be this "if UW beats the trend against UT this year by a similar proportion by which it beat the trend last year, how do you see the game going?"

I keep seeing the Alamo bowl being referenced. You guys do realize this is the playoffs and not a shit tier bowl game, right? Nobody will be sitting out getting ready for the NFL combine in this game. Of course several players from both teams played in that game last year, but neither team will be exactly the same for this one.

[nbmishoid 949]

23 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

I'm in general agreement that if 1 team wins comfortably, it's much more likely to be UT. 

Thanks for the responses to my question.  It's just that we fans hear the same line before every big game.  UW is finesse and will get bullied in the trenches.  Yet somehow after the games we always hear "UW strength on the lines was very surprising".  At some point it has not be not surprising anymore. 

It’s not about the patterns you hear from others, it is about evaluating the legit comparative data and reasoning from there.

The “we heard this from everyone “ argument is childish bullshit

[troph 24857]

10 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Yeah, has the potential to be a fantastic game and can't wait. 

UO passed for 300+ yards and ran for 200+ yards in the 1st game, so our defense can be had.  Any team that does that should win.  

One of my favorite things about the UW team this year is just the fear of how dangerous they are.  Teams tend to feel like they have to go for it on 4th downs to score enough.  The same is true in reverse in this game.  Both teams can be explosive.  The in-game decisions will be fascinating.  

If I were an objective husky fan, I would see this much like the Oregon game, except Texas will play better defense.

[Huskyfan1997 204]

2 minutes ago, nbmishoid said:

It’s not about the patterns you hear from others, it is about evaluating the legit comparative data and reasoning from there.

The “we heard this from everyone “ argument is childish bullshit

haha thanks for your opinion on the matter Mr. High Horse.  I'd argue that there is no legit comparative data unless we played the exact same teams. Everything is just conjecture.  No need to call people childish.  

[Codaxx 5766]

5 minutes ago, ousux said:

1 hour ago, Sonics_1993 said:

Wasn't that also true last year? UT allowed 1 100-yd rusher, and even Alabama wasn't able to hit that mark. UW still had a 100 yd back in the Alamo Bowl getting 7.7 ypc.
Instead of framing it in terms of hopeless optimism, a different question might be this "if UW beats the trend against UT this year by a similar proportion by which it beat the trend last year, how do you see the game going?"

I keep seeing the Alamo bowl being referenced. You guys do realize this is the playoffs and not a shit tier bowl game, right? Nobody will be sitting out getting ready for the NFL combine in this game. Of course several players from both teams played in that game last year, but neither team will be exactly the same for this one.

Its not like the starting LB and second leading tackler on the team is going to decide his has better shit to do, than to play Washington like last year

[troph 24857]

Just now, Huskyfan1997 said:

haha thanks for your opinion on the matter Mr. High Horse.  I'd argue that there is no legit comparative data unless we played the exact same teams. Everything is just conjecture.  No need to call people childish.  

 

[Huskyfan1997 204]

If you guys were playing Oregon in this playoff game instead of UW, would you feel more or less confident about winning?