Game Week Thread Week 14, 2023, Texas v Washington, College Football Playoff Edition

[Sonics_1993 29]

8 minutes ago, ousux said:

1 hour ago, Sonics_1993 said:

Wasn't that also true last year? UT allowed 1 100-yd rusher, and even Alabama wasn't able to hit that mark. UW still had a 100 yd back in the Alamo Bowl getting 7.7 ypc.
Instead of framing it in terms of hopeless optimism, a different question might be this "if UW beats the trend against UT this year by a similar proportion by which it beat the trend last year, how do you see the game going?"

I keep seeing the Alamo bowl being referenced. You guys do realize this is the playoffs and not a shit tier bowl game, right? Nobody will be sitting out getting ready for the NFL combine in this game. Of course several players from both teams played in that game last year, but neither team will be exactly the same for this one.

I'm primarily here trying to get information from people more knowledgeable about UT than I am, which will help me contextualize what I'm seeing when the game comes. I don't care about the Alamo Bowl by itself for the reasons you laid out. Neither team really wanted to be there (UT had played in a gillion Alamo Bowls recently and had a bunch of opt outs, UW thought it should've had a chance to play for the conference title but got boxed out by weird tie-breaker rules and ended up without a shot at a NY6 bowl).

My question was in response to a specific statement about limited rushing success this year against Texas meaning UW would have limited success as well. Since it seemed that last year had the same narrative with a different result, I was genuinely just curious what some of the differences might be to drive a different outcome.

[Codaxx 5731]

Just now, Huskyfan1997 said:

If you guys were playing Oregon in this playoff game instead of UW, would you feel more or less confident about winning? 

More confident.  I think Washington has a better downfield passing game and that is my biggest fear in this game. 

[Tex Long 4383]

Just now, Huskyfan1997 said:

If you guys were playing Oregon in this playoff game instead of UW, would you feel more or less confident about winning? 

'Bout the same. Oregon looks to be better players, but Lanning does stupid shit more often than deBoer.

[Atticus 3973]

Just now, Huskyfan1997 said:

If you guys were playing Oregon in this playoff game instead of UW, would you feel more or less confident about winning? 

My big concern with Oregon would be Nix's playmaking outside of the pocket and his ability to break off chunks with scrambling. They run basic schemes on both offense and defense though, and we would match up pretty well outside of Nix.

Penix can scramble a bit, but he isn't nearly as mobile. 

I preferred to face you guys because plays are generally on schedule and we do better against that. 

[nbmishoid 949]

2 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

haha thanks for your opinion on the matter Mr. High Horse.  I'd argue that there is no legit comparative data unless we played the exact same teams. Everything is just conjecture.  No need to call people childish.  

Take Sushi’s posts as an example.  Data driven reasoning in the world is empirically proven better than rhetoric.

Get off your rocking horse 

[conVINCEd 21469]

2 minutes ago, Sonics_1993 said:

I'm primarily here trying to get information from people more knowledgeable about UT than I am, which will help me contextualize what I'm seeing when the game comes. I don't care about the Alamo Bowl by itself for the reasons you laid out. Neither team really wanted to be there (UT had played in a gillion Alamo Bowls recently and had a bunch of opt outs, UW thought it should've had a chance to play for the conference title but got boxed out by weird tie-breaker rules and ended up without a shot at a NY6 bowl).

My question was in response to a specific statement about limited rushing success this year against Texas meaning UW would have limited success as well. Since it seemed that last year had the same narrative with a different result, I was genuinely just curious what some of the differences might be to drive a different outcome.

The difference is Sweat is in a contract year and has been annihilating everybody this season.  

[TexArcher 37771]

4 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

If you guys were playing Oregon in this playoff game instead of UW, would you feel more or less confident about winning? 

The same, more or less.

In both cases, the passing game is a concern, and neither has a defense that can keep us under 35 unless we turtle or turn the ball over multiple times.

We should be favored by 3 to 6 over either.

[troph 24781]

6 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

If you guys were playing Oregon in this playoff game instead of UW, would you feel more or less confident about winning? 

More. I think WA is a tougher team physically, I think Penix is the better passer. I think WA has better playmakers on defense. I think WA matches up better against the other styles of play in the other conferences. I think WA is a bitch of a matchup for us honestly. I’d probably be pretty confident if we were playing Michigan right now so long as we sent our coach a letter informing him Michigan cheats.

Edited December 18, 2023 by troph

[immamac 42838]

2 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

If you guys were playing Oregon in this playoff game instead of UW, would you feel more or less confident about winning? 

TBH about the same. 

48 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

It’s a coin flip if we can’t beat you up with our offensive line against your defensive line. We have enough advantage on yall that I have no doubt we will score plenty- so that game becomes a 42-38 type shoot out. If our DLine gets consistent pressure while shutting down the run game yall have almost zero chance. 
I think that’s what @immamacwas talking about re fragility. 

Yes - They have 1 way to win and that's it. They have to throw the ball extremely well and make big gains. They cannot grind against Texas it will lose them the game. 

39 minutes ago, Sonics_1993 said:

1. I don't agree that a 100 yard rushing attack is necessary to avoid UT having a reasonably comfortable win. There are plenty of ways to get the type of benefit a run game provides without having to do it all on the ground. We've seen tunnel screens to Odunze, slants to McMillan, and quick hit contested passes to the one-on-one receiver on the outside (whether that be Odunze or Polk) be really effective when teams try to sell out against the pass. I agree that if UT can get consistent pressure with 4 linemen, then UW is in trouble. I feel comfortable that the OL and Penix can avoid that, so the next issue is whether Grubb can be effective at keeping the LBs from being able to sell out on the pass consistently. It'd be nice if Johnson could get good yardage on the ground for that purpose, but it's not the only way to skin a cat.
2. I have plenty of confidence that UW can get stops on UT, just like I think UT is going to get more stops than it seems people are giving credit for against UW. The last game UW played was against an Oregon team that has a lot of talent (over the last 5 classes, Oregon = ~9th vs. Texas ~7th in 247 composite rankings). UW's defense was extremely disruptive against an offense that was blowing people out regularly coming into the game (UW was a 9.5 point underdog in Vegas for the game). Beyond that, even with injuries, UW has been really hard to score on in the 2nd half and has given up more than 7 points in the 4th quarter only once all year (13 in garbage time against Cal).

I don't think UW is going to blow UT out or vice versa. It should be a close game, but I don't think UW needs to change its identity to win any more than I think UT does. Whoever executes better (especially when it comes to penalties and turnovers) will probably win.

It is absolutely necessary that you run for more than 100 to even sniff a chance at winning. There is no way you will be able to complete that many passes in a row and not get off the field without a significant amount of anchoring on the running game. If you go one dimensional Texas will eat you alive or just keep the ball away from you and cause a punt. We make mother fuckers punt a lot and we don't punt all that often. 

Washington

38-1531

54-2328

Texas

36-1591

71-3016

[Dbeasy 15042]

Today I learned that Washington fans actually think they used to be a powerhouse. I guess that’s what makes football great, delusional fans. 

[Laga4 1270]

6 hours ago, MikeDamone said:

I’m a 6’5 260lb former college basketball player and Army Ranger and you don’t want any in real life.

If you were you wouldn’t need to post it on a football forum. 

[Chili dog 1787]

3 hours ago, MikeDamone said:

  I didn’t steal shit, fucko.    You don’t want any of this, trust me 

[sushihorn 3233]

5 minutes ago, immamac said:

Yes - They have 1 way to win and that's it. They have to throw the ball extremely well and make big gains. They cannot grind against Texas it will lose them the game. 

It is absolutely necessary that you run for more than 100 to even sniff a chance at winning. There is no way you will be able to complete that many passes in a row and not get off the field without a significant amount of anchoring on the running game. If you go one dimensional Texas will eat you alive or just keep the ball away from you and cause a punt. We make mother fuckers punt a lot and we don't punt all that often. 

Washington

38-1531

54-2328

Texas

36-1591

71-3016

The defensive game plan from last year’s Alamo Bowl would likely work well sine we have the horses to execute it this year. Watching Texas defending 11 personnel with 6 in the box and 4 wide with 5 this year was impressive. To shut down the Doak Walker winner and control Tajh Brooks with those defensive alignments made my day. 

[troph 24781]

2 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

The defensive game plan from last year’s Alamo Bowl would likely work well sine we have the horses to execute it this year. Watching Texas defending 11 personnel with 6 in the box and 4 wide with 5 this year was impressive. To shut down the Doak Walker winner and control Tajh Brooks with those defensive alignments made my day. 

There’s a part of me that can see the defense holding WA to under 30 - stop the run, disrupt with pressure, jump a few balls for a INT or two, but I’m trying not to entertain it. Watching the Bama game and the last two of the regular season don’t help. I think it’s unlikely but there is a path for Texas to disrupt Penix, and it would not surprise me at all. 

[Chili dog 1787]

1 hour ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

For the record, I am not claiming that will happen.  Just genuinely curious if you guys think that it will be a close game if it does happen, otherwise you guys should win reasonably comfortably?

The only thing that gives me hope against your DL is that we don't really run a traditional run game at the interior line.  Our rushing attack is more schemed (e.g. 49ers) and likely will not test your interior DL unless we've schemed to put them in a bad position.

And I totally agree that the UT offense vs the UW defense is greatly underestimated.  I have zero confidence we can get many stops of that offense.  Worthy plays way faster on the field than any of our players.  

If y’all run well on us, you’ll likely beat our ass. I’m counting on our interior linemen caving in your interior OL and forcing Penix into some bad decisions and bad throws. I’m also optimistic because we will be at full health with all of our weapons. We’ve vastly improved on 3rd and 4th down defense and rush defense, the two areas that got us beaten by y’all last year. Add to that our depth at RB and the new WR threats and the year of improvement for Quinn and I like our odds. Y’all definitely are capable of beating us, though. Your biggest strength is a problem for our biggest weakness. 

[Dahobbs 17529]

1 hour ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Question: If UT is not able to bully around the offensive line of UW and Dillon Johnson runs for 100+ yards, what percentage chance do you give UT of winning?

In that circumstance, most likely 45/55. It is 50/50 if the offense is clicking and whoever has the ball last wins. However, if the offense isn't firing on all cylinders, then it'll be a long day for Texas. 

42 minutes ago, Sonics_1993 said:

Wasn't that also true last year? UT allowed 1 100-yd rusher, and even Alabama wasn't able to hit that mark. UW still had a 100 yd back in the Alamo Bowl getting 7.7 ypc.

Instead of framing it in terms of hopeless optimism, a different question might be this "if UW beats the trend against UT this year by a similar proportion by which it beat the trend last year, how do you see the game going?"

Y'all did run the ball well last year. That was predicated on a lack of discipline, particularly among some players that got extended minutes due to our best defender opting out. In particular we had one edge player and one linebacker that played really poorly that game. In general there was also some poor pad level at the line, which isn't something we've seen this year. I wouldn't expect a repeat of that performance. 

[Huskyfan1997 204]

38 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

The same, more or less.

In both cases, the passing game is a concern, and neither has a defense that can keep us under 35 unless we turtle or turn the ball over multiple times.

We should be favored by 3 to 6 over either.

It is kind of fascinating what the vegas line would be if Oregon had won the last game.  Vegas was so in love with UO and if they beat us in that game, who would they love more: UO or Texas.  IMO, it should be a pick'em with a couple points in UT favor due to some home field advantage?  Not sure if vegas would agree in that hypothetical world though.  

I know it's stupid to think about, but just kind of interesting to me.  

[troph 24781]

4 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

It is kind of fascinating what the vegas line would be if Oregon had won the last game.  Vegas was so in love with UO and if they beat us in that game, who would they love more: UO or Texas.  IMO, it should be a pick'em with a couple points in UT favor due to some home field advantage?  Not sure if vegas would agree in that hypothetical world though.  

I know it's stupid to think about, but just kind of interesting to me.  

Annoyance with the sports media’s infatuation with Oregon is something I think Texas fans and Washington fans could agree on. We were irritated and annoyed by it for most of the season. 

[sushihorn 3233]

2 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

It is kind of fascinating what the vegas line would be if Oregon had won the last game.  Vegas was so in love with UO and if they beat us in that game, who would they love more: UO or Texas.  IMO, it should be a pick'em with a couple points in UT favor due to some home field advantage?  Not sure if vegas would agree in that hypothetical world though.  

I know it's stupid to think about, but just kind of interesting to me.  

Casual fans are enamored of spectacular and athletic plays. Thus they gravitate to big play offense and big hits on defense. Oregon has flashy athletes that do incredible things. Washington usually made the plays by getting numbers at the point of attack or by defenders being in the right place. One is a highlight reel but the other is more reliable and effective over time. 

[nbmishoid 949]

Yet it ( Vegas and UO) is irrelevant to the real drivers of game outcomes

Edited December 18, 2023 by nbmishoid

[markstanco 12573]

2 hours ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

 

And I totally agree that the UT offense vs the UW defense is greatly underestimated. 

Texas has the #9 total offense which is hard to say underestimated.  Maybe you can say that for the husky D standing at #91 overall, but it seems like a stretch. 

[Huskyfan1997 204]

3 minutes ago, markstanco said:

Texas has the #9 total offense which is hard to say underestimated.  Maybe you can say that for the husky D standing at #91 overall, but it seems like a stretch. 

Sorry, I meant that that facet of the game has been greatly under-analyzed.  Did not mean to imply that UT offense is underestimated.  I think it's on par with UW's offense at minimum.  Definitely more balanced on paper.  

[Atticus 3973]

23 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

It is kind of fascinating what the vegas line would be if Oregon had won the last game.  Vegas was so in love with UO and if they beat us in that game, who would they love more: UO or Texas.  IMO, it should be a pick'em with a couple points in UT favor due to some home field advantage?  Not sure if vegas would agree in that hypothetical world though.  

I know it's stupid to think about, but just kind of interesting to me.  

I believe Oregon would have been favored against us. Maybe 3.5 pts or so.

[TexArcher 37771]

11 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Sorry, I meant that that facet of the game has been greatly under-analyzed.  Did not mean to imply that UT offense is underestimated.  I think it's on par with UW's offense at minimum.  Definitely more balanced on paper.  

Nothing to add to this, but thanks for being a reasonable guest fan who's here to talk football rather than talk mindless shit.  We didn't get a lot of that around here in our Big 12 days, so it's appreciated.

Edited December 18, 2023 by TexArcher
Sidebar: it enchubbens me to talk about our Big 12 days in the past tense...

[hook me 2092]

2 minutes ago, Atticus said:

I believe Oregon would have been favored against us. Maybe 3.5 pts or so.

Agree. When one QB is completing 137% of his passes I don't see how his team wouldn't be favored.

[Texasborn91 935]

1 minute ago, hook me said:

Agree. When one QB is completing 137% of his passes I don't see how his team wouldn't be favored.

Well you look at that win vs Utah…

[Huskyfan1997 204]

1 minute ago, hook me said:

Agree. When one QB is completing 137% of his passes I don't see how his team wouldn't be favored.

haha, we can agree that Nix was overhyped.  Completing 80% of passes when all his throws are within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage is so misleading.  

At least Penix is throwing it way down the field.  

[Dahobbs 17529]

2 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

haha, we can agree that Nix was overhyped.  Completing 80% of passes when all his throws are within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage is so misleading.  

At least Penix is throwing it way down the field.  

Yeah, Penix completing >44% of downfield throws AND throwing it down field at like 3 or 4 times our rate is fucking impressive. 

[Nivek 16923]

If you guys were playing Oregon in this playoff game instead of UW, would you feel more or less confident about winning? 

Goddamn y’all are obsessed with Oregon. Is it in your state’s charter that you have to reference Oregon at least 12 times a day?

[ousux 5597]

If y’all run well on us, you’ll likely beat our ass. I’m counting on our interior linemen caving in your interior OL and forcing Penix into some bad decisions and bad throws. I’m also optimistic because we will be at full health with all of our weapons. We’ve vastly improved on 3rd and 4th down defense and rush defense, the two areas that got us beaten by y’all last year. Add to that our depth at RB and the new WR threats and the year of improvement for Quinn and I like our odds. Y’all definitely are capable of beating us, though. Your biggest strength is a problem for our biggest weakness. 

Not all our weapons. Catalon already hopped in the portal and he plays a position where we have our greatest weakness. We also don't know if X will be 100% for the game, just like we didn't find out about the broken hand he played several games with (and Quinn's finger issue on his throwing hand) until after last season was all said and done. I do expect Watts at corner and Baxter at RB to be near full strength..or at least I hope.

[Huskyfan1997 204]

yeah, it's our biggest rival.  And they get all the love from the media.  But the reason for all my UO talk in this forum is because it's the only team that is reasonably comparable to UT that we've played.  

Moving on from UO, if you were UW, do you think it's more important to double team Worthy or Mitchell?

My casual fan eyes think that Mitchell looks to be more important to contain.  Worthy will definitely make our team look like they're running in sand.  But something about the Mitchell highlights tell me he's just as dangerous, if not more.  

[ousux 5597]

yeah, it's our biggest rival.  And they get all the love from the media.  But the reason for all my UO talk in this forum is because it's the only team that is reasonably comparable to UT that we've played.  
Moving on from UO, if you were UW, do you think it's more important to double team Worthy or Mitchell?

My casual fan eyes think that Mitchell looks to be more important to contain.  Worthy will definitely make our team look like they're running in sand.  But something about the Mitchell highlights tell me he's just as dangerous, if not more.  

You are correct, Mitchell can adjust to a poorly thrown ball and make the catch whereas X has shown that to be his weakness. But even so he's made some spectacular catches himself from time to time. Worthy will get open more often due to speed so he usually takes the double, but that leaves Mitchell and Sanders with good matchups (bad for you guys) at times.

Edit- I should replace "poorly" with not a perfect throw, but you get what I mean.

[Dahobbs 17529]

3 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

yeah, it's our biggest rival.  And they get all the love from the media.  But the reason for all my UO talk in this forum is because it's the only team that is reasonably comparable to UT that we've played.  

Moving on from UO, if you were UW, do you think it's more important to double team Worthy or Mitchell?

My casual fan eyes think that Mitchell looks to be more important to contain.  Worthy will definitely make our team look like they're running in sand.  But something about the Mitchell highlights tell me he's just as dangerous, if not more.  

Worthy. Not adjusting your defense to defend his speed will get you burned. That said, I'm not sure that necessarily means doubling him all the time. You could also try playing off coverage and just rallying here and there. But I don't think you can really risk doubling anyone else as we work real hard to get Worthy the ball in a lot of ways. If you double someone like Mitchell, we'll either isolate Worthy and he'll beat someone one on one or get you outnumbered in one of our quick screens to him. 

[Huskyfan1997 204]

6 minutes ago, ousux said:

12 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

yeah, it's our biggest rival.  And they get all the love from the media.  But the reason for all my UO talk in this forum is because it's the only team that is reasonably comparable to UT that we've played.  
Moving on from UO, if you were UW, do you think it's more important to double team Worthy or Mitchell?

My casual fan eyes think that Mitchell looks to be more important to contain.  Worthy will definitely make our team look like they're running in sand.  But something about the Mitchell highlights tell me he's just as dangerous, if not more.  

You are correct, Mitchell can adjust to a poorly thrown ball and make the catch whereas X has shown that to be his weakness. But even so he's made some spectacular catches himself from time to time. Worthy will get open more often due to speed so he usually takes the double, but that leaves Mitchell and Sanders with good matchups (bad for you guys) at times.

Thanks.  I was thinking that if it were 4th and 10 at the end of the game and all our receivers had equal amounts of separation, Penix is throwing to Odunze for sure.  

And that same situation if I were a Texas fan, I think I'd want Ewers to throw it to Mitchell.  But I've only seen a few games.  Just wondering if you guys would agree. 

[BurntEyes 5961]

9 minutes ago, ousux said:

14 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

yeah, it's our biggest rival.  And they get all the love from the media.  But the reason for all my UO talk in this forum is because it's the only team that is reasonably comparable to UT that we've played.  
Moving on from UO, if you were UW, do you think it's more important to double team Worthy or Mitchell?

My casual fan eyes think that Mitchell looks to be more important to contain.  Worthy will definitely make our team look like they're running in sand.  But something about the Mitchell highlights tell me he's just as dangerous, if not more.  

You are correct, Mitchell can adjust to a poorly thrown ball and make the catch whereas X has shown that to be his weakness. But even so he's made some spectacular catches himself from time to time. Worthy will get open more often due to speed so he usually takes the double, but that leaves Mitchell and Sanders with good matchups (bad for you guys) at times.

Pretty much on point.

If it was a last minute catch in the end zone, I'd prefer the ball go to Mitchell. He's just more dependable. 

However, the rest of the field and game I want X, cause just about every time it could be 6 points.

It's a good problem to have.

[BurntEyes 5961]

3 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Thanks.  I was thinking that if it were 4th and 10 at the end of the game and all our receivers had equal amounts of separation, Penix is throwing to Odunze for sure.  

And that same situation if I were a Texas fan, I think I'd want Ewers to throw it to Mitchell.  But I've only seen a few games.  Just wondering if you guys would agree. 

Hah! That's pretty much exactly what I just said.

[Dahobbs 17529]

Just now, Huskyfan1997 said:

Thanks.  I was thinking that if it were 4th and 10 at the end of the game and all our receivers had equal amounts of separation, Penix is throwing to Odunze for sure.  

And that same situation if I were a Texas fan, I think I'd want Ewers to throw it to Mitchell.  But I've only seen a few games.  Just wondering if you guys would agree. 

If that is the situation, Mitchell and Sanders are our true contested catch guys. Worthy definitely prefers to be relatively clean when he catches the ball. 

[ousux 5597]

Thanks.  I was thinking that if it were 4th and 10 at the end of the game and all our receivers had equal amounts of separation, Penix is throwing to Odunze for sure.  
And that same situation if I were a Texas fan, I think I'd want Ewers to throw it to Mitchell.  But I've only seen a few games.  Just wondering if you guys would agree. 

Worthy has proven himself a dangerous weapon this year, probably has more YAC than Mitchell, but Mitchell seems to be Quinn's go to receiver for TD's. I know this will sound pretty homerish, but it's a pick your poison type thing with our offense when it's firing on all cylinders, but I'm sure you can say the same about UW.

[BurntEyes 5961]

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

If that is the situation, Mitchell and Sanders are our true contested catch guys. Worthy definitely prefers to be relatively clean when he catches the ball. 

And running man/press on him gets him clean pretty often. Need a safety zone for assistance or he's going to cause issue for a D in that situation often.

[Huskyfan1997 204]

2 minutes ago, ousux said:

6 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Thanks.  I was thinking that if it were 4th and 10 at the end of the game and all our receivers had equal amounts of separation, Penix is throwing to Odunze for sure.  
And that same situation if I were a Texas fan, I think I'd want Ewers to throw it to Mitchell.  But I've only seen a few games.  Just wondering if you guys would agree. 

Worthy has proven himself a dangerous weapon this year, probably has more YAC than Mitchell, but Mitchell seems to be Quinn's go to receiver for TD's. I know this will sound pretty homerish, but it's a pick your poison type thing with our offense when it's firing on all cylinders, but I'm sure you can say the same about UW.

Not homerish at all.  Just the truth.  Honestly, the main advantage your offense has over ours is the TE.  Our TE is serviceable at catching and makes some good plays.  But he's a walk-on that played a total of 2 high school football games before walking on at UW.  Not quite the same level instilled fear that Sanders brings haha. 

[BurntEyes 5961]

3 minutes ago, ousux said:

7 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Thanks.  I was thinking that if it were 4th and 10 at the end of the game and all our receivers had equal amounts of separation, Penix is throwing to Odunze for sure.  
And that same situation if I were a Texas fan, I think I'd want Ewers to throw it to Mitchell.  But I've only seen a few games.  Just wondering if you guys would agree. 

Worthy has proven himself a dangerous weapon this year, probably has more YAC than Mitchell, but Mitchell seems to be Quinn's go to receiver for TD's. I know this will sound pretty homerish, but it's a pick your poison type thing with our offense when it's firing on all cylinders, but I'm sure you can say the same about UW.

I would argue the biggest variance in that regard UT vs UW is our break away speed and power at RB with Oline that opens gaps up the middle. I haven't seem that at any point from UW, but I admit I only watched 3 of their games.

[BurntEyes 5961]

1 minute ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Not homerish at all.  Just the truth.  Honestly, the main advantage your offense has over ours is the TE.  Our TE is serviceable at catching and makes some good plays.  But he's a walk-on that played a total of 2 high school football games before walking on at UW.  Not quite the same level instilled fear that Sanders brings haha. 

That's a fair point too.

This page really spells out why I think the over is a very solid bet in this game.

Edit - I just want to echo other comments saying thanks for bring real football talk from the opposing view. We are a bunch of dicks and know it all but if you have a clue we enjoy engaging.

Edited December 18, 2023 by BurntEyes

[Huskyfan1997 204]

2 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

I would argue the biggest variance in that regard UT vs UW is our break away speed and power at RB with Oline that opens gaps up the middle. I haven't seem that at any point from UW, but I admit I only watched 3 of their games.

Correct.  UW does not have breakaway speed at the RB position in the 2-deeps.  I think maybe the freshman Tybo maybe does, but he won't play much.  

[Atticus 3973]

6 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Worthy. Not adjusting your defense to defend his speed will get you burned. That said, I'm not sure that necessarily means doubling him all the time. You could also try playing off coverage and just rallying here and there. But I don't think you can really risk doubling anyone else as we work real hard to get Worthy the ball in a lot of ways. If you double someone like Mitchell, we'll either isolate Worthy and he'll beat someone one on one or get you outnumbered in one of our quick screens to him. 

Worthy is a gamewrecker. If you don't account for him, the band is playing Texas Fight. Mitchell is more reliable actually catching the ball. He runs really fluid routes and sells his fakes really well. He's the best catcher on the team. Sanders can burn you a number of ways, even with a bad ankle. Whittington is probably our best receiver against zone coverage, and he's winning more consistently against man now. 

Blue may have some of the best hands on the team, and definitely the best in the RB room. Very fast and can run P5 WR level routes. 

Stop Worthy first, then hope Quinn doesn't see the other guys that are open.

[Dahobbs 17529]

4 minutes ago, Atticus said:

Stop Worthy first, then hope Quinn doesn't see the other guys that are open.

Yeah, that last point is pretty salient. I feel like many times our struggles on offense, in particular the sacks, are because Quinn gets fixated on waiting for his primary read to open up deep rather than just taking the easy candy underneath. He was much better about it against Ok State and even Tech. 

[Crapinon 2253]

15 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

Pretty much on point.

If it was a last minute catch in the end zone, I'd prefer the ball go to Mitchell. He's just more dependable. 

However, the rest of the field and game I want X, cause just about every time it could be 6 points.

It's a good problem to have.

Here he is bailing Ewers out at TCU

https://twitter.com/espn/status/1723552448353030383?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1723552448353030383|twgr^269f9ef6308f68f4bbf417c83a60936e6e2db073|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.statesman.com%2Fstory%2Fsports%2Fcollege%2Flonghorns%2Ffootball%2F2023%2F11%2F11%2Ftexas-football-longhorns-win-over-tcu-horned-frogs-quinn-ewers-jonathon-brooks-reactions%2F71553280007%2F

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3868]

Thanks.  I was thinking that if it were 4th and 10 at the end of the game and all our receivers had equal amounts of separation, Penix is throwing to Odunze for sure.  
And that same situation if I were a Texas fan, I think I'd want Ewers to throw it to Mitchell.  But I've only seen a few games.  Just wondering if you guys would agree. 

Most likely order, TE Sanders, over the middle Whittington, Mitchell, X.

[hook me 2092]

16 minutes ago, Huskyfan1997 said:

Thanks.  I was thinking that if it were 4th and 10 at the end of the game and all our receivers had equal amounts of separation, Penix is throwing to Odunze for sure.  

And that same situation if I were a Texas fan, I think I'd want Ewers to throw it to Mitchell.  But I've only seen a few games.  Just wondering if you guys would agree. 

The beauty of this team this year is there are 4 legitimate threats to get the ball, but 4th & 10 with the game on the line I'm going Mitchell then Sanders because of their ability to catch ball with guys all over them. 

[BurntEyes 5961]

8 minutes ago, Atticus said:

Worthy is a gamewrecker. If you don't account for him, the band is playing Texas Fight. Mitchell is more reliable actually catching the ball. He runs really fluid routes and sells his fakes really well. He's the best catcher on the team. Sanders can burn you a number of ways, even with a bad ankle. Whittington is probably our best receiver against zone coverage, and he's winning more consistently against man now. 

Blue may have some of the best hands on the team, and definitely the best in the RB room. Very fast and can run P5 WR level routes. 

Stop Worthy first, then hope Quinn doesn't see the other guys that are open.

This is pretty much how it has to go.

Find a way to stop worthy and get pressure on Quinn without a lot of blitzing and still contain run.

Not an easy task and why I frankly differ with the majority of Surly on my opinion that Texas matches up better with UW than Michigan. (Both tough match ups for the record)

 

[Chili dog 1787]

38 minutes ago, ousux said:

1 hour ago, Chili dog said:

If y’all run well on us, you’ll likely beat our ass. I’m counting on our interior linemen caving in your interior OL and forcing Penix into some bad decisions and bad throws. I’m also optimistic because we will be at full health with all of our weapons. We’ve vastly improved on 3rd and 4th down defense and rush defense, the two areas that got us beaten by y’all last year. Add to that our depth at RB and the new WR threats and the year of improvement for Quinn and I like our odds. Y’all definitely are capable of beating us, though. Your biggest strength is a problem for our biggest weakness. 

Not all our weapons. Catalon already hopped in the portal and he plays a position where we have our greatest weakness. We also don't know if X will be 100% for the game, just like we didn't find out about the broken hand he played several games with (and Quinn's finger issue on his throwing hand) until after last season was all said and done. I do expect Watts at corner and Baxter at RB to be near full strength..or at least I hope.

Bobby says X will be 100%. He and Baxter and Watts have a full month to heal their bumps and bruises. I tend to agree with Bobby that we’ll be 100%, but you’re right that we won’t know anything for sure. 

Catalon is not a weapon. Not in this game. He’d only be a liability.