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Week 14, 2023, Texas v Washington, College Football Playoff Edition

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Posted by alphahydro,

I haven't watched enough Washington games to say anything useful about matchups, schemes, etc.  So I pulled some stats while I was bored.  TL;DR - I looked at Wash's results against teams roughly as good as Texas and vice versa (based on stats I pulled over the past week while i was bored. You may or may not think these stats are relevant). Based on the stats I pulled for Texas, UW, and each team's 2023 opponents: Assuming the Pac-12 and Big XII are pretty similar, the stats I
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EastHorn

EastHorn 281

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29 minutes ago, Zeus said:

Not that easy, what about real normal transfers of tickets? Not "companies" buying a lot but me just selling my two tickets for near the same price I bought them?

What are you going to do at the gate? Check every persons ID?

They do this for NFL but remember going to Saints playoff games with some random person's name without issue.  And oh yes the super dome is a fantastic atmosphere.  Fans are stacked on top of each other for it being an NFL stadium.  

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In 2015 my wife and I had a son that passed away shortly after. I was devastated but held on to my faith and was given plenty of strength for my family.  Longhorn football has always been my #1 favori

Qruel
Qruel

Best play designer in the country gonna run circles around Sarkisian with a month to prepare lmfao. I can't wait.

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This is all weak bullshit. I said people giving Sarkisian the benefit of the doubt were welcome to it, but there was no history with him to support it, in 2021 and 2022. I stand by that position. I sa

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thunderlounge

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3 hours ago, EastTexan said:

aggy/tickets gettin cheeper. game aint impotent


Game ain’t, but aggy is  

 

 

2 hours ago, Nivek said:

easy, make them non-transferrable (and tied to a name) and non-refundable.   

With electronic tickets, cap the price at face value, and fees not to exceed 10%.

Fuck all the middleman profit bullshit for doing jack fuck other than scamming a profit off a transaction. 

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Nivek

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2 hours ago, Zeus said:

Not that easy, what about real normal transfers of tickets? Not "companies" buying a lot but me just selling my two tickets for near the same price I bought them?

What are you going to do at the gate? Check every persons ID?

Non-transferrable is non-transferrable.   Major public gatherings have security checkpoints, bag searches, etc.   It wouldn't add much time especially since ID's are scannable.  Heck, that could make it even easier if they tickets are tied to the ID, so you just need to scan your license.   

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chainsaw

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Tonight there's a chance a 2023 Husky opponent could finally win a bowl game. So far they are 0-3 (Boise lost to UCLA, Cal lost to Tceh, and Utah lost to a nerd school from the B1G).

Tonight USC (no Caleb) faces Lville in the Holiday bowl.

Lville is favored, which is unfathomable to anyone who watched the ACC title game.

If USC loses and the Husky opponents fall to 0-4, the next chance will be Zona vs ousux (no Gabriel) at the Alamo Bowl. Vegas is picking the wildcats here but not by much. Has the feel of a true tossup.

Next up is Oregon State Beavers vs Notre Domers. Notre Dame is favored, and I think they will win and cover.

Last would be Oregon Ducks vs. the Jerry Falwells, I think the Ducks with Bo Nix take care of business here and cover.

If all the favorites win then the bowl SOS indicated by Washington's bowl-eligible opponents would be 2-5.

So far, Texas's bowl SOS indicated by Texas's bowl-eligible opponents is currently 2-1 (Rice lost to Texas St, Cal got beat by Tceh, and Kansas beat UNLV) with six games coming up: Okie Lite vs Aggy (Texas Bowl tonight), KSU vs NC State (Pop Tarts Bowl 28th), ousux vs. Arizona (Alamo Bowl 28th), ISU vs Memphis (Liberty Bowl 29th), Wyoming vs Toledo (Airzona Bowl 30th), and Bama vs. Mich (CFP Semis Jan 1).

Okie Lite is favored tonight, KState and Zona are favored tomorrow, Iowa State is favored in the Liberty Bowl, Toledo is favored over Wyo, and Michigan is slightly favored over Bama. Based on those assumptions, Texas's bowl SOS would be 5-4.

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jinx

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Are we in white? I would assume so but haven’t seen it confirmed anywhere. Are there sections designated as Texas and UW? I can’t find that either. 

3 minutes ago, Bevo said:

The movie was good except for the rooting for Washington. It lacked some character building but I guess that was to keep the movie short.

I gained a lot of respect for UW after reading it. Seems very similar to Texas in a lot of ways. 

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Magabro

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Are we in white? I would assume so but haven’t seen it confirmed anywhere. Are there sections designated as Texas and UW? I can’t find that either. 
I gained a lot of respect for UW after reading it. Seems very similar to Texas in a lot of ways. 

We’re icy whites
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RAMBONE

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What game(s) do you think Kalen Deboer used for film study to attack Texas? OU? 

I rewatched last year's Alamo Bowl. It is interesting how much this team changed over a single season. We tried to run Kelian and he was very ineffective. No other RB's really got going. We did a good job of making Penix uncomfortable, especially early in the game. McMillan killed us last year - It seemed like he was more involved than the stats show. They ran the ball well as well.

I hope we can get to Penix, he has quite a windup. And we gotta punch it in. Hope the coaches figured it out.

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Dahobbs

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10 hours ago, RAMBONE said:

What game(s) do you think Kalen Deboer used for film study to attack Texas? OU? 

I rewatched last year's Alamo Bowl. It is interesting how much this team changed over a single season. We tried to run Kelian and he was very ineffective. No other RB's really got going. We did a good job of making Penix uncomfortable, especially early in the game. McMillan killed us last year - It seemed like he was more involved than the stats show. They ran the ball well as well.

I hope we can get to Penix, he has quite a windup. And we gotta punch it in. Hope the coaches figured it out.

I think we live with McMillan's underneath action this year if it limits down field plays again. But we cannot have another breakdown against the run game this year. If we can hold Washington under 4 yards per carry with 6 and 7 man fronts, I'd feel real good about our chances. 

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sushihorn

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On 12/26/2023 at 2:54 PM, Mikey4 said:

We've taken a step back from Bijan and Roschon, but they didn't play in the bowl game last year. Our running game this year (even without Brooks) is an upgrade over what Washington in last year's game.

It’s a BIG upgrade over the 2022 Alamo Bowl. They’ve also become less predictable with lower ability to run it down a defense’s throat. Less focus on B gap runs. As pointed out above, more gap blocking so power and multiple variations of counter even when we target a B gap - not just inside zone.

There is misdirection incorporated into the whole offense so safeties and LBs have to hesitate and read their keys before running to the ball. Watch how often our OL reach defenders at the 2nd level. Defensive hesitation creates the opportunity to hit a stationary target and cit off pursuit. 

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TheMailBox357

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Both the analytics duo of College Football Nerds has UT beating UW by double digits (Keep in my mind they accurately predicted that OU would beat UT close in the RRS when most fans & media assumed that UT would beat OU comfortablely):

 

Quote

 

Michael Penix and this Washington passing attack are coming in sky high after dumping Oregon for the PAC 12 title. Quinn Ewers is healthy and ready to run Sark's offensive wizardy to its fullest extent after leading Texas through the Big 12. Sugar Bowl victory and a shot at the title is on the line.

 

1 interesting they talked about in this video is that they feel UW's running game actually drives their offense which plays into UT's strength.

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sushihorn

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11 hours ago, RAMBONE said:

What game(s) do you think Kalen Deboer used for film study to attack Texas? OU? 

I rewatched last year's Alamo Bowl. It is interesting how much this team changed over a single season. We tried to run Kelian and he was very ineffective. No other RB's really got going. We did a good job of making Penix uncomfortable, especially early in the game. McMillan killed us last year - It seemed like he was more involved than the stats show. They ran the ball well as well.

I hope we can get to Penix, he has quite a windup. And we gotta punch it in. Hope the coaches figured it out.

I’d look at KSU and TCU for defense.  Iowa State did the best job but their defense is so different from Washington and I doubt the Huskies could replicate it. Maybe Wyoming also but Texas won’t play that way in the CFP. I’d also drink a lot since they have to hope they can keep Texas in the low 30s and hit the mid 30s themselves. Very narrow path there. 

Offensively there are few good models for UW. I’m sure they’d love to replicate the OU game but they and Bama only managed to manufacture a ground game with running QBs. K State basically runs a single wing with longer passes mixed in - totally different. UW doesn’t want to replicate the offensive performances of OSU, TT, ISU, Wyoming, Rice, KU or BYU. I think their best plan is to hope they can cobble together enough of a run threat against a 6 man box to force coverage risks like Texas took against OU and Bama. Then exploit that coverage with a better passer than Milroe or Gabriel. Like I said before, it’s a narrow path to victory. 

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Doc Daneeka

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28 minutes ago, TheMailBox357 said:

Both the analytics duo of College Football Nerds has UT beating UW by double digits (Keep in my mind they accurately predicted that OU would beat UT close in the RRS when most fans & media assumed that UT would beat OU comfortablely):.


Probably shouldn’t quote, but here we are. 

I’m not a duo, though “nerd” would probably be fair, but I’m thinking Texas by 17 or so. (Keep in mind I said Texas would win in Tuscaloosa by 10+, that Ewers would outplay Milroe, and the math said Texas would likely fuck away a game and that OU was the most likely one.) Something like 45-28 or 41-24. 

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GUAPOHORNSY

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On 12/3/2023 at 9:26 AM, Xcalibur said:

Texas in the playoff!  Why was my thread deleted when I called my shot on this yesterday after the bama win?  
 

Looks like new years in New Orleans, bros.  Hook em!

I’ll be there puffin on Grandpas cough medicine in a Horns Adult Onesy with A Replicated John Snow Jacket from Game of Thrones on cause it’s balls cold out there But hey HOOK EM’

 

On 12/3/2023 at 9:26 AM, Xcalibur said:

Texas in the playoff!  Why was my thread deleted when I called my shot on this yesterday after the bama win?  
 

Looks like new years in New Orleans, bros.  Hook em!

 

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ztejas

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10 hours ago, perfectchaos007 said:

Maybe it was just me, but in Sark's sugar bowl presser I couldn't help but be distracted by the CFP logo giving Sark little horns on his head. Hopefully a sign the cajun voodoo is already working for us.

 

image.png.35aa445d677ceba5ac1c947a96ed5d4b.png

Saban can't coach forever. The devil is just foreshadowing his next pick to be the dark overlord of college football. 

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sushihorn

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1 hour ago, TheMailBox357 said:

 

1 interesting they talked about in this video is that they feel UW's running game actually drives their offense which plays into UT's strength.

That is correct. They have to run or have a lot of success in the short passing game to force a safety closer to the LOS and open things up downfield. And only a real running threat can slow down the pass rush. Their outside receivers are very good on jump balls but that’s against single coverage, not with a safety over the top.

IMHO Washington needs to at least have our LBs thinking pass first to sustain drives with the run. If they play run fits with a 6 man box there won’t be any room between the tackles. We will need contingent run support from a weak side DB but the team speed match up is going to make it hard for Johnson to turn the corner. I think UW will have to double team at least the play side DT to run the ball so there will be an unblocked defender with 11 personnel vs 6 in the box. That changes if the QB is a real running threat but Penix is not. 

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horn_of_the_morning

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The Other SEC Team in the College Football Playoff: Texas

The Longhorns won’t officially become members of the Southeastern Conference until July, but they already look like one of the powerhouse teams from college football’s mightiest league
 

https://www.wsj.com/sports/football/texas-longhorns-college-football-playoff-a5dab99c?mod=hp_featst_pos3

Spoiler

Not long after Steve Sarkisian was appointed head football coach of the University of Texas, he closed his office door, sat down at his new desk and pulled out a blank sheet of paper.

Sarkisian arrived early in 2021 to turn the Longhorns into a national championship contender following a fallow period that produced just a single double-digit win season in 11 years. As he contemplated the challenge ahead of him, Sarkisian began jotting down a list of the programs he wanted his Texas team to emulate.

Before long, he noticed a pattern. The most successful teams of the past decade were physical in the trenches. They had elite speed at the skill positions. And they hoarded five-star recruits like they were barrels of Texas crude.

But it was something else they had in common that caught Sarkisian’s attention.

“Ultimately, a majority of those teams came from the SEC,” Sarkisian said before the season. “So, all right. How do we beat those teams? How do we build a roster to beat those teams?”

The answer was to build a team that behaves, operates and now plays exactly like a team from the Southeastern Conference, even as Texas technically remains a member of the Big 12 for a few months more.

Ever since the Longhorns officially accepted an invitation to join the mightiest league in college football in 2021, almost every significant move they have made seems like it was inspired by a marathon binge-watch of the SEC Network. First, they followed the same process as six other SEC schools by tabbing one of Nick Saban’s assistants at Alabama to become their new head coach. Then they persuaded the country’s wealthiest collection of boosters to splurge on upgrades to the team facilities. They loaded up on coaches with SEC experience, recruited bigger, bulkier players and stacked their nonconference schedule with SEC opponents. They even brought in a member of the Manning family to play quarterback. 

im-906162?width=700&height=466

TUSCALOOSA, ALABAMA — SEPTEMBER 09: David Gbenda #33 of the Texas Longhorns sacks Jalen Milroe #4 of the Alabama Crimson Tide during the second quarter at Bryant-Denny Stadium on September 09, 2023 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) PHOTO: KEVIN C. COX/GETTY IMAGES

All of which has led to another outcome that will sound awfully familiar to SEC fans: Texas earned a spot in the College Football Playoff semifinals, where it will face Washington in the Sugar Bowl on Monday, with a berth in the national championship game on the line.

In other words, seven months before the Longhorns officially join the SEC, they have in all practical purposes already transformed into an SEC team.

“In the analogy of David and Goliath,” Texas athletic director Chris Del Conte said, “we’re never going to be David.”

Texas is hardly the first team to attempt to follow the SEC’s playbook. But it’s one of the few schools in the country with the kinds of resources and deep-pocketed boosters to emulate that model. With an operating budget of $225 million and revenue in excess of $239 million during the 2021-22 fiscal year, the most recent period for which data is available, Texas is second only to Ohio State among some 360 Division I schools, per NCAA data compiled by USA Today.

Del Conte understood that only too well when he was hired to be Texas’ athletic director in 2017 after previous stops at Rice and Texas Christian. He was quick to leverage the school’s resources, giving every sport $10 million for facility upgrades. Football got more, as historic Darrell K. Royal Stadium needed a face-lift. 

“We were just so far behind…it would be like using a 1950 Bunsen burner in 2023,” Del Conte said. 

The finished product will look more like a blast furnace. The university completed a $200 million renovation of the south end zone in 2021. Construction on a 10,000-foot recruiting lounge next door and a $70 million indoor practice facility are in the works for the offseason.

 
im-906168?width=700&height=466

An aerial view of Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium on the campus of the University of Texas. PHOTO: IMAGE OF SPORTS/NEWSCOM/ZUMA PRESS

“If you expect to be the best and you want to be the best, you’ve got to give your coaches and student athletes all the tools necessary to be the best,” Del Conte said.

Del Conte also worked to schedule the best available competition. Beginning in 2019, Texas filled its nonconference slate with SEC teams—Louisiana State, Arkansas and Alabama. Del Conte also agreed to play home-and-home series with Ohio State in 2025 and 2026 and Michigan in 2024 and 2027.

But the biggest deal Del Conte struck was with Sarkisian, who he turned to after firing Tom Herman in 2020 following a 7-3 record and despite a buyout of more than $15.4 million.

 

Sarkisian was fresh off of leading Alabama to a national championship as coordinator of their most prolific offense ever, and his arrival presaged an influx of coaches with SEC experience. Sarkisian installed two former Alabama deputies as coordinators—Jeff Banks on special teams and Kyle Flood on offense—and hired former Alabama and LSU assistant Bo Davis to coach the defensive line. 

Even the coaches Sarkisian plucked from outside the SEC were influenced by his time at Alabama. Sarkisian witnessed firsthand how Saban relied on recently departed head coaches to serve as analysts and lend experience to his staff. Sarkisian brought on longtime TCU coach Gary Patterson as a special assistant in 2022. This year, he added former Wisconsin boss Paul Chryst.

im-906155?width=700&height=466

Steve Sarkisian, right, chats with Texas athletic director Chris Del Conte after defeating Alabama. PHOTO: KEVIN C. COX/GETTY IMAGES

With the facilities and coaches in place, Sarkisian set out to build a team capable of matching up with the behemoths of the SEC. That meant everything needed to be bigger in Texas. “When Steve looked at the construct of our team,” said Del Conte, “he said, ‘You have 18 wide receivers and eight offensive linemen. That makes no sense to me. We’ve got to get bigger.’” 

Those priorities were clear from Sarkisian’s first recruiting class: In 2022, 15 of the 28 players Texas signed were linemen or edge rushers. Both five-star recruits were offensive tackles, while seven of the 15 four-star prospects played on the line of scrimmage, according to recruiting site 247sports.

The following cycle, Sarkisian even did what so many SEC teams have done before him: He signed a guy named Manning to play quarterback. Arch Manning, grandson of Archie Manning, nephew of Peyton and Eli, and the most coveted quarterback in the class of 2023, committed to Texas in June 2022. 

Though Manning has played barely a handful of snaps this year and will serve as the backup quarterback in Monday’s semifinal, It was a major coup for the Longhorns that was years in the making. According to Manning’s high school coach Nelson Stewart, one of the first calls Sarkisian made after taking the Texas job in 2020 was to the teenage quarterback.

im-906169?width=700&height=466

Nov 4, 2023; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) enters Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium before a game against the Kansas State Wildcats. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports PHOTO: SCOTT WACHTER/REUTERS

From Saban, Sarkisian also learned adaptability. After implementing a strength and conditioning program based on speed and agility in 2021 and seeing the team get pushed around on the field, Sarkisian switched gears. The Longhorns would go back to Olympic power lifting—the kind that famously fortified so many Crimson Tide squads. Two years on, opposing coaches say that Texas is noticeably bigger and more physical.

Everything has come together in 2023. Until this year, Texas hadn’t beaten any of the SEC teams it scheduled. Then the Longhorns marched into Bryant Denny Stadium and handed Saban the first double-digit home loss of his Alabama tenure. The Longhorns hadn’t won a conference title, or been in the national title race this late in the season since 2009, either.

But Sarkisian’s makeover has wrapped up just in time. Whatever happens in Monday’s semifinal, Texas has already proven it can play like an SEC program. Which is lucky, because by July 2024, it will actually be one.

Write to Laine Higgins at laine.higgins@wsj.com

 

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Codaxx

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13 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

That is correct. They have to run or have a lot of success in the short passing game to force a safety closer to the LOS and open things up downfield. And only a real running threat can slow down the pass rush. Their outside receivers are very good on jump balls but that’s against single coverage, not with a safety over the top.

IMHO Washington needs to at least have our LBs thinking pass first to sustain drives with the run. If they play run fits with a 6 man box there won’t be any room between the tackles. We will need contingent run support from a weak side DB but the team speed match up is going to make it hard for Johnson to turn the corner. I think UW will have to double team at least the play side DT to run the ball so there will be an unblocked defender with 11 personnel vs 6 in the box. That changes if the QB is a real running threat but Penix is not. 

I find it interesting how many people talk about Ewers and the script. Ewers has 6 picks on the year, all of them are in the 1st half. 3 of them are in the 1Q. He has the highest 4Q QBR in the nation. 

Here is his QB rating by quarter

1st Quarter               158.32        
2nd Quarter               143.04        
3rd Quarter               163.76        
4th Quarter               219.25

1st Half QB Rating: 150.16

2nd Half QB rating: 183.81

 

Seems odd the 4Q is his best quarter, if he is dependent on the script.

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sushihorn

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One thing jumps out at me from the bowl games. Big 12 teams pass rushing looks so much better when not crippled by the blatant holding the league allows. WVU averaged just over 2 sacks per regular season game. They had 7 in the bowl game. TTU averaged less than 2 sacks but they put up 6 against Cal. OSU’s vs aggy was slightly above their season average. KU only got 1 sack vs a season average of almost 2.0 but they more than doubled their QBH in the bowl.

With a B1G crew, I expect heavy pressure on the pocket and/or multiple holding calls. I want to see our DL penetrate gaps and read like they have all year but without a figurative monkey on their back. Penix will occasionally have time to go deep. I don’t want him to be able to count on having that time. 

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Sgt Hulk

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3 hours ago, Doc Daneeka said:


Probably shouldn’t quote, but here we are. 

I’m not a duo, though “nerd” would probably be fair, but I’m thinking Texas by 17 or so. (Keep in mind I said Texas would win in Tuscaloosa by 10+, that Ewers would outplay Milroe, and the math said Texas would likely fuck away a game and that OU was the most likely one.) Something like 45-28 or 41-24. 

Where do I send my 4.95 

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Rimbo

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3 hours ago, Doc Daneeka said:


Probably shouldn’t quote, but here we are. 

I’m not a duo, though “nerd” would probably be fair, but I’m thinking Texas by 17 or so. (Keep in mind I said Texas would win in Tuscaloosa by 10+, that Ewers would outplay Milroe, and the math said Texas would likely fuck away a game and that OU was the most likely one.) Something like 45-28 or 41-24. 

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