Game Week Thread Week 14, 2023, Texas v Washington, College Football Playoff Edition

[Bevo14 8358]

1 hour ago, sushihorn said:

Quinn is definitely underrated as a passer but he’s not better than Penix. The Longhorn receivers’ superpower is YAC and our coaching staff creates a lot of favorable matchups and coverage busts. So Ewers gets a lot of receiver running (especially screens) tacked on and easy pitch and catch to wide open men. Penix gets help from his guys but he’s having to get the ball downfield with high accuracy just to create the jump ball situations. 

So what you're saying is we have a decided schematic advantage

[troph 24903]

On 12/28/2023 at 12:20 PM, TheMailBox357 said:

Both the analytics duo of College Football Nerds has UT beating UW by double digits (Keep in my mind they accurately predicted that OU would beat UT close in the RRS when most fans & media assumed that UT would beat OU comfortablely):

 

 

1 interesting they talked about in this video is that they feel UW's running game actually drives their offense which plays into UT's strength.

One of the best takes out there. Even in their prediction they weren’t saying it means Texas is vastly better - they acknowledge most college games aren’t 1-4 point games. They then explain how the score could flip. Anyway a great 30 minute watch. 

[Pancho 44931]

 

 

[alphahydro 334]

3 hours ago, Hornius Emeritus said:

I just heard that Quinn is #1 in the FBS in 4th quarter QBR.  Also, Texas is 4th in terms of the length of time we give our QB's to throw before first pressure arrives: 3.19 seconds. The only teams  that gave their QBs more time before the defense got there were UTEP, Utah and Bama.  Washington's defense is not going to get to him too often.

Will be interesting to see how the reverse plays out when Texas is on defense. 

From the Horns247 podcast today.   Some dude on there has a pff subscription and pulled these stats.

Penix

WHEN BLITZED

169 dropbacks 59% 13TD 4 INT

WHEN PRESSURED WITH 3/4 MAN RUSH

121 dropbacks; 43% 4 TD 3 INT 

Apparently the guards and left tackle allow the most pressure (reminder, Penix is left handed).   I assume WA has plans to move the pocket, and Texas is looking at Penix stats and WA plays when they do that. 

[alphahydro 334]

Here is some well thought out analysis of UW from a duck fan, before and after the P12 CG:

https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2023/12/1/23983739/duck-tape-film-analysis-update-of-washington-2023

https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2023/12/5/23989039/duck-tape-film-review-of-oregon-vs-washington-2023-pac-12-championship?_gl=1*1kyb3rt*

It's hard to make sense of UW this year because their performance fell off against subaverage teams in the middle of the season. This guy thinks it may be due to a few injuries (likely including an undisclosed injury to Penix), and he talks about how UW leaned on the run during that middle stretch. 

Kinda crazy bc it's not clear what Husky team is gonna show up on Monday.  But it may be something closer to early season/P12CG UW. 

[TexEx15 17563]

10 minutes ago, alphahydro said:

Here is some well thought out analysis of UW from a duck fan, before and after the P12 CG:

https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2023/12/1/23983739/duck-tape-film-analysis-update-of-washington-2023

https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2023/12/5/23989039/duck-tape-film-review-of-oregon-vs-washington-2023-pac-12-championship?_gl=1*1kyb3rt*

It's hard to make sense of UW this year because their performance fell off against subaverage teams in the middle of the season. This guy thinks it may be due to a few injuries (likely including an undisclosed injury to Penix), and he talks about how UW leaned on the run during that middle stretch. 

Kinda crazy bc it's not clear what Husky team is gonna show up on Monday.  But it may be something closer to early season/P12CG UW. 

It’s crazy how evenly matched these teams are right down to similar issues during the season.

[JohnnyTapia 540]

https://www.instagram.com/reel/C1gItgtrETy/?igsh=cnFsMWJ6cm9qdzg1
 

Sweat is clearly tired of hearing about Washington’s O-Line. Says they have to play against him, Murphy, Collins, Broughton, Carter

Edited December 31, 2023 by JohnnyTapia

[Bama Llama 1450]

8 hours ago, thunderlounge said:

For your game, check the sec network. Your radio broadcast will be all synced up. 
 

 

Much obliged. Fowler and Herbstreit aren’t bad but they’re obsessed with jumping on the right bandwagon and speculating about when Nick’s hanging it up. Hope ‘24 is to your liking.

[Dbeasy 15078]

14 hours ago, TheMailBox357 said:

 

Quoting yourself. You are such a pussy. 

[Jiggy-Z 3435]

8 hours ago, troph said:

One of the best takes out there. Even in their prediction they weren’t saying it means Texas is vastly better - they acknowledge most college games aren’t 1-4 point games. They then explain how the score could flip. Anyway a great 30 minute watch. 

Yeah, these guys also picked Oregon over UW both times and GA over Bama plus a few other stinkers.

Some of the better analysis out there though.

[troph 24903]

20 minutes ago, Jiggy-Z said:

Yeah, these guys also picked Oregon over UW both times and GA over Bama plus a few other stinkers.

Some of the better analysis out there though.

The prediction part meh. The discussion yes. 

[BurntEyes 6008]

1 hour ago, troph said:

The prediction part meh. The discussion yes. 

They also address just that in their discussion. They pointed out they don't think it will be close, and that they could be wrong. 

I enjoyed their data based take and honesty about unknowns. 

[troph 24903]

9 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

They also address just that in their discussion. They pointed out they don't think it will be close, and that they could be wrong. 

I enjoyed their data based take and honesty about unknowns. 

Yes their caveats at the end were great and spot on imo. I think Texas wins by 10 if Texas plays Texas football. The factors that could prevent that from happening (and could lead to WA winning by 10) are well known AND that includes both Texas and Washington influenced factors.

[troph 24903]

9 hours ago, alphahydro said:

Here is some well thought out analysis of UW from a duck fan, before and after the P12 CG:

https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2023/12/1/23983739/duck-tape-film-analysis-update-of-washington-2023

https://www.addictedtoquack.com/2023/12/5/23989039/duck-tape-film-review-of-oregon-vs-washington-2023-pac-12-championship?_gl=1*1kyb3rt*

It's hard to make sense of UW this year because their performance fell off against subaverage teams in the middle of the season. This guy thinks it may be due to a few injuries (likely including an undisclosed injury to Penix), and he talks about how UW leaned on the run during that middle stretch. 

Kinda crazy bc it's not clear what Husky team is gonna show up on Monday.  But it may be something closer to early season/P12CG UW. 

College football nerds talked about their consistency score - Texas too - both teams are hard to predict because of that. 
 

it’s frustrating talking to these opposing fans because they can’t see that. WA could be dominate, so could Texas. But this isn’t 2005 Texas and it ain’t whatever WA they would refer to of the same. Both have played poorly and it’s even harder to gauge because both teams had significant injuries. 

[Atticus 3981]

3 hours ago, Jiggy-Z said:

Yeah, these guys also picked Oregon over UW both times and GA over Bama plus a few other stinkers.

Some of the better analysis out there though.

All three of those games were 3 point upset wins. On paper and matchup-wise, it makes sense to favor Georgia and Oregon. 

Whether it's Oregon's shitty decisions in the first game, or taking too long to get going in the second game. Whatever the case, UW got it done.

 

Georgia didn't play great against Bama, but Bama played really well situationally to hold on and win that game.

[Sgt Hulk 13819]

Just give me fully gassed Texas vs the Washington team that barely beat state 

[Hank Kingsley 21010]

Roschon reppin'

 

[thunderlounge 7904]

I hated seeing him go to the Bears, and Bijan to the Falcons. Waste of their talents.

[Bama Llama 1450]

Not unkike Bryce Young going to the Panthers. QB graveyard since Cam (spit) Newton. Surprised he has survived with no protection.

[Hornius Emeritus 12480]

49 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Roschon reppin'

 

What did he say? I can't quite make it out.

[Doc Daneeka 6769]

1 hour ago, thunderlounge said:

I hated seeing him go to the Bears, and Bijan to the Falcons. Waste of their talents.

Tommy Nobis would agree. 

[Doc Daneeka 6769]

2 hours ago, troph said:

College football nerds talked about their consistency score - Texas too - both teams are hard to predict because of that. 
 

it’s frustrating talking to these opposing fans because they can’t see that. WA could be dominate, so could Texas. But this isn’t 2005 Texas and it ain’t whatever WA they would refer to of the same. Both have played poorly and it’s even harder to gauge because both teams had significant injuries. 

Texas’ A game is 14 points better than Washington’s. If it’s a blowout, it’s almost certainly Washington on the short end of it. 

If I knew for sure when Texas was going to show up with the A game and when not, there’d be at least another zero on the right side of my net worth. So there’s that.

That said, I don’t expect Texas to get up 20 and fuck around as in three of the less than stellar games. I expect Texas to have some frustrating times but to go all python on their asses until, like Anthony Hill said (in general), you can see in their eyes that they’ve quit. 

Edited December 31, 2023 by Doc Daneeka

[TheMailBox357 213]

 

[Nivek 16958]

Yeah, these guys also picked Oregon over UW both times and GA over Bama plus a few other stinkers.
Some of the better analysis out there though.

Herd bias is a real thing. However, selecting individual mistakes vs their overall record is probably not a great indicator (I have no idea what their overall record is).

To synthesize what I have read and watched from UW homers, Michael Penix will throw 7 passes for 8 TDS in the first half. And Texas will run the ball for 1-2 yards/carry and Ewers will get picked on each of his 8 throws. Sweat will be worn out trying to get through the Great Wall of Washington and most of the game getting oxygen.

[bolverk 29705]

1 hour ago, Hornius Emeritus said:

What did he say? I can't quite make it out.

"(I'm) a cowboy today."

[Nivek 16958]

College football nerds talked about their consistency score - Texas too - both teams are hard to predict because of that. 
 
it’s frustrating talking to these opposing fans because they can’t see that. WA could be dominate, so could Texas. But this isn’t 2005 Texas and it ain’t whatever WA they would refer to of the same. Both have played poorly and it’s even harder to gauge because both teams had significant injuries. 

We have both dealt with injuries, only ours have been more significant. However we have had to overcome obvious bullshit officiating fuckery which shortened the field or negated talent disadvantages for our opponents or lengthened the field for our team. The Big12 Refs Thread is full of screen captures and discussions of it. College football nerds only gave a cursory look at the numbers, they didn’t actually watch the games.

[Pancho 44931]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[El Squared 1813]

17 hours ago, thunderlounge said:

By 3 or by 30, just win baby.

“We didn’t come this far, just to come this far.”

[alphahydro 334]

2 hours ago, Atticus said:

All three of those games were 3 point upset wins. On paper and matchup-wise, it makes sense to favor Georgia and Oregon. 

Whether it's Oregon's shitty decisions in the first game, or taking too long to get going in the second game. Whatever the case, UW got it done.

 

Georgia didn't play great against Bama, but Bama played really well situationally to hold on and win that game.

Scott Gerlach*, who I really respect, was on EGAT podcast and said something similar to CFBnerds.  I think he said his gut feeling is 40% chance comfortable win for Texas, 60% chance it's a cointoss/anyone could win game. 

Given the injuries that both teams have faced this year, I think you have to assume the teams that show up tomorrow are the UW that beat Oregon x 2 and the Texas that beat Bama and Okie State. 

At the same time, I think you have to discount all four of those performances a bit.  Okie State was a great matchup for Texas, and Bama was a game where most everything went Texas' way (plus, I think Bama trusted its secondary more than UW will, leaving a few key easier reads for Ewers)  And Oregon probably would have won both games if they had a better gameplan/in game adjustments.  So you still have some pretty big unknowns. 

I think the big x-factors/unknowns are-

1) Texas defensive coaching staff vs UW's excellent offensive coaching staff.  UW's coaching staff was the clear edge against Oregon, and I can't find the quote, but DeBoer said as much after the P12 championship game.  

I think this is the main issue when UW has the ball: UW can't just throw deep every play, and they know they can't just line up and run the ball.  I think a lot rests on the Texas LBers to shore up the run-alternatives in the short/screen game.  I'm sure the UW coaching staff spent a lot of time trying to scheme up a run/short passing game using motion/redirection/shifts to get the right matchups and leverage against the Texas edge/slot DB and LB.  UW did an excellent job last year (against a different Texas lineup), and it was a huge factor in the outcome.  If the UW RB are breaking tackles tomorrow, it's partly because they are good players and partly because their OC did a great job in getting them matchups and angles.   (Of course some of this depends on the Texas gameplan and how Texas adjusts over the course of the game).  Frankly, not knowing much, I'd probably do what Texas did last year and devote less resources to the short game and hope for the best (at least as my "base" strategy). 

2) Will the athleticism and size of Texas make a significant difference in the game?  This especially relates to #1.  If UW goes with what worked in the pac 12 this season (or what worked in the Alamo bowl), it may not work in the Sugar Bowl, because the leverage that works against smaller, slower teams may not work against this Texas team.  It's what Oregon always discovers when they play better teams.  I don't think it's a matter of being pac12 soft.  UW is a very physical, scrappy bunch on both sides of the ball.  It's more about team speed (and size) of the opposing defense.  If Texas' athleticism allows it to handle short/underneath stuff with fewer resources (using some dime, dropping nickle into coverage etc) because the solutions that worked for UW all year don't work against Texas, it will allow Texas to devote extra resources to the pass at low cost.  

Similarly, how will the depth and quality of the Texas DL factor into this game?  I think you can put this into 3 categories: 1) it won't matter; UW will move the pocket, get the ball out quickly, and scheme the run game away from the interior DL. 2) it will matter indirectly.  The UT DL won't dominate in a way you can see, but their efforts will severely limit what plays UW can run successfully; UW will be running a limited playbook, which will allow Texas to devote extra resources to the plays UW can run. 3) massive pressure up the middle all game.  And we all know Penix is a different QB if you can get pressure with 4.  The extremes of 3 and 1 are not super likely, but 1 is more likely early in the game and 3 is more likely toward the end of the game, imo, given Texas' depth.  But we don't really know how this is going to play out because UW didn't play UCLA this year, and a lot of this depends on flow of the game, who scores early, etc. 

3) Will the opposing DC be able to frustrate Ewers or Penix?  Each QB has enough weapons that if you give them time and clear pictures, they will pick you apart.  

4) How improved is Texas run blocking, actually?  If the OL has turned a corner and can open holes, this is going to be big.  If they revert to the mean, it's a lot tougher for ewers. 

Of course the game comes down to execution, and what we will all see is the great moments of execution and/or failure of execution.  But what makes this matchup interesting to me is - the gameplan and question marks are going to make it somewhere between really easy to execute or hard for the teams to execute.  I think Scott and CFBnerds are guessing that the athleticism of Texas is just going to make it hard for UW to execute.  I think that is probably true, but UW's staff is excellent.  And it's just a matter of how much they can neutralize Texas' advantages.  Plus, the scary thing about UW is even if you play them right, they can still make explosive plays, because their QB and skill players execute at such a high level. 

*used to post on Barkingcarnival as Longhornscott 

https://www.barkingcarnival.com/2012/10/12/3492630/longhornscott-west-virginia-video-breakdown

[pops 7006]

It's been so long since a team I give a shit about has been in a game of any consequence I don't even know what to do. Preparing to get kicked in the nuts. This will be one I watch completely alone so I can pace and swear and fuck me let's just get to tomorrow!!!

[Pancho 44931]

2 minutes ago, pops said:

It's been so long since a team I give a shit about has been in a game of any consequence I don't even know what to do. Preparing to get kicked in the nuts. This will be one I watch completely alone so I can pace and swear and fuck me let's just get to tomorrow!!!

Kinda the same. 

I’m in DC for work and contemplated going to the DC Texas Exes game watching, but I’m wondering if I need to watch this by myself for my own sanity

[pops 7006]

13 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Kinda the same. 

I’m in DC for work and contemplated going to the DC Texas Exes game watching, but I’m wondering if I need to watch this by myself for my own sanity

My therapist has already confirmed I'm fucking nuts. I'm watching alone for everyone else's sanity. Luckily I'll have this place to rant to. 

[GTJ1982 388]

My biggest worry on defense is Hill being in the right place in coverage and Washington targeting his zone.  Hopefully he is primarily used as missile to rearrange Penix’s ribs.  

[The Original Greaser Bob 2844]

3 hours ago, Sgt Hulk said:

Just give me fully gassed Texas vs the Washington team that barely beat state Stanford

 

[El Squared 1813]

When I was a kid, and my bothers and I were learning how to play chess, there was too much delayed gratification in playing out a game to the end. So we created “ Samurai Chess’’  Where a board was placed down the middle of the game board and we could set up the pieces anywhere on our side of the board , not seeing where the opponent placed his pieces, ( like the game battleship), and then pulled the board and started playing. It made for quick thrilling and /or catastrophic matches. 
 

I think despite all the stat-matching before this game , tomorrow will play out like Samurai Chess. Hoping we’re on the thrilled side. I mean…stormtrooper whites and such….

[hookemATL 11825]

46 minutes ago, pops said:

It's been so long since a team I give a shit about has been in a game of any consequence I don't even know what to do. Preparing to get kicked in the nuts. This will be one I watch completely alone so I can pace and swear and fuck me let's just get to tomorrow!!!

[troph 24903]

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I miss Kobe. No one is perfect but what he added to the subject of sports and in that how he shared his philosophy on focus, mental toughness and work ethic was as good as any in all of professional sports. 

[troph 24903]

54 minutes ago, pops said:

It's been so long since a team I give a shit about has been in a game of any consequence I don't even know what to do. Preparing to get kicked in the nuts. This will be one I watch completely alone so I can pace and swear and fuck me let's just get to tomorrow!!!

 

49 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Kinda the same. 

I’m in DC for work and contemplated going to the DC Texas Exes game watching, but I’m wondering if I need to watch this by myself for my own sanity

I’m doing some chores around the house basically waiting for the game. A full 30-36 hours before kick off.

 

[Hank_Hill 18893]

7 minutes ago, troph said:

I miss Kobe. No one is perfect but what he added to the subject of sports and in that how he shared his philosophy on focus, mental toughness and work ethic was as good as any in all of professional sports. 

Ngl I haven’t had my coffee yet and didnt get the reference. Just thought the phonetics part of the graphics were fucked up.

[hookemATL 11825]

25 minutes ago, troph said:

I miss Kobe. No one is perfect but what he added to the subject of sports and in that how he shared his philosophy on focus, mental toughness and work ethic was as good as any in all of professional sports. 

Bit of a helicopter dad though. 

[troph 24903]

Just now, hookemATL said:

Bit of a helicopter dad though. 

yikes, too soon. but clever, very clever.

[pops 7006]

1 minute ago, hookemATL said:

Bit of a helicopter dad though. 

Lock it up. We're done here. 

[hookemATL 11825]

Just now, troph said:

yikes, too soon. but clever, very clever.

TBF I vetted the post with my reprobate, felonious family and friends before hitting submit. 

[troph 24903]

1 minute ago, hookemATL said:

TBF I vetted the post with my reprobate, felonious family and friends before hitting submit. 

it was the top post in the last few months, very well done.

[ztejas 43526]

8 minutes ago, hookemATL said:

TBF I vetted the post with my reprobate, felonious family and friends before hitting submit. 

Kobe was almost a felon so I'm sure he'd approve. 

[Js1 85488]

1 hour ago, pops said:

It's been so long since a team I give a shit about has been in a game of any consequence I don't even know what to do. Preparing to get kicked in the nuts. This will be one I watch completely alone so I can pace and swear and fuck me let's just get to tomorrow!!!

[Irish Wrist Watch 1397]

This Texas team has handled "Big games" pretty well. They dictated play against Bama and didn't make errors. They took the lead late in the OU game only to run thin on D in that final drive, but I'm thinking at least they learned a lesson or two. And against OSU in the conference championship, they put it all together. I like the direction we're going. These guys have a chance to step up big and make their mark against the 2005 Horns. In a funny way, we have tradition on our side. I like the Horns by 10, maybe giving up a score or two in trash time, but coming away big.

[Nivek 16958]

This Texas team has handled "Big games" pretty well. They dictated play against Bama and didn't make errors. They took the lead late in the OU game only to run thin on D in that final drive, but I'm thinking at least they learned a lesson or two. And against OSU in the conference championship, they put it all together. I like the direction we're going. These guys have a chance to step up big and make their mark against the 2005 Horns. In a funny way, we have tradition on our side. I like the Horns by 10, maybe giving up a score or two in trash time, but coming away big.

Sark talked about the strategy of playing with a big lead and just going prevent, slow down the offense, and how that backfired. He has it figured out now. The Tech and OSU games showed that.

[sushihorn 3233]

1 hour ago, alphahydro said:

I think a lot rests on the Texas LBers to shore up the run-alternatives in the short/screen game.  I'm sure the UW coaching staff spent a lot of time trying to scheme up a run/short passing game using motion/redirection/shifts to get the right matchups and leverage against the Texas edge/slot DB and LB.  UW did an excellent job last year (against a different Texas lineup), and it was a huge factor in the outcome.  If the UW RB are breaking tackles tomorrow, it's partly because they are good players and partly because their OC did a great job in getting them matchups and angles.   (Of course some of this depends on the Texas gameplan and how Texas adjusts over the course of the game).  Frankly, not knowing much, I'd probably do what Texas did last year and devote less resources to the short game and hope for the best (at least as my "base" strategy). 

2) Will the athleticism and size of Texas make a significant difference in the game?  This especially relates to #1.  If UW goes with what worked in the pac 12 this season (or what worked in the Alamo bowl), it may not work in the Sugar Bowl, because the leverage that works against smaller, slower teams may not work against this Texas team.  It's what Oregon always discovers when they play better teams.  I don't think it's a matter of being pac12 soft.  UW is a very physical, scrappy bunch on both sides of the ball.  It's more about team speed (and size) of the opposing defense.  If Texas' athleticism allows it to handle short/underneath stuff with fewer resources (using some dime, dropping nickle into coverage etc) because the solutions that worked for UW all year don't work against Texas, it will allow Texas to devote extra resources to the pass at low cost.  

Similarly, how will the depth and quality of the Texas DL factor into this game?  I think you can put this into 3 categories: 1) it won't matter; UW will move the pocket, get the ball out quickly, and scheme the run game away from the interior DL. 2) it will matter indirectly.  The UT DL won't dominate in a way you can see, but their efforts will severely limit what plays UW can run successfully; UW will be running a limited playbook, which will allow Texas to devote extra resources to the plays UW can run. 3) massive pressure up the middle all game.  And we all know Penix is a different QB if you can get pressure with 4.  The extremes of 3 and 1 are not super likely, but 1 is more likely early in the game and 3 is more likely toward the end of the game, imo, given Texas' depth.  But we don't really know how this is going to play out because UW didn't play UCLA this year, and a lot of this depends on flow of the game, who scores early, etc. 

I don’t see UW having any consistent running between the tackles. Their off tackle runs are going to require their OL to get good movement against our edges and combo up to the LBs. If our play side DE and LB can force the run wide, I like the odds of pursuit and safety support stopping Johnson from turning the corner. Remember Reggie Bush bounced stuff outside and turned it up for big gains all season in 2005. When he faced the speed of Texas he couldn’t do that and Lendale White became the bigger threat. I expect that sort of effect if our defensive front can avoid giving UW a soft corner in the run game. 

Edited December 31, 2023 by sushihorn

[MAUFRAIS 6632]

Is Steve Wiebe going to be there? Greatest Husky competitor ever.