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Week 14, 2023, Texas v Washington, College Football Playoff Edition

Wulaw Horn

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Posted by alphahydro,

I haven't watched enough Washington games to say anything useful about matchups, schemes, etc.  So I pulled some stats while I was bored.  TL;DR - I looked at Wash's results against teams roughly as good as Texas and vice versa (based on stats I pulled over the past week while i was bored. You may or may not think these stats are relevant). Based on the stats I pulled for Texas, UW, and each team's 2023 opponents: Assuming the Pac-12 and Big XII are pretty similar, the stats I
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4 minutes ago, mwaadeeb said:

Our D against the screen game has been surprisingly solid under PK. Used to be missed tackles and whifs, drove me crazy. If that’s UW’s best weapon we should be okay.

I also think I saw we have the fewest yards allowed after first contact. pretty impressive if you think about the last 15 years of shit tackling.

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WilburHooksHand

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4 minutes ago, mwaadeeb said:

Argue with this man @JBJ

we throw screens, they are not our strength. Our strengths are deep and intermediate balls. Oregon leans on the screen game. The one screen we do go to from time to time is more of a tunnel to odunze, probably not the kind most are thinking of.

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texifornia

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19 minutes ago, WilburHooksHand said:

depends on how serious we are about football. allegedly the extension and raise have been signed but I’ll believe it when I see an announcement. Michigan is the only school I would worry about

Any worries about his recruiting? Obviously he can coach 'em up once he's got them in the program, but the class looks a bit yikes.

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JBJ

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5 minutes ago, WilburHooksHand said:

we throw screens, they are not our strength. Our strengths are deep and intermediate balls. Oregon leans on the screen game. The one screen we do go to from time to time is more of a tunnel to odunze, probably not the kind most are thinking of.

Yeah.  They are set screens with OL in front.  Usually flares to the RB or slip screens to WRs.  I'd say it's a strength but not the backbone of the offense by any means.  I was more talking about the strengths and weaknesses of the OL.  They can block in space.

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WilburHooksHand

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4 minutes ago, texifornia said:

Any worries about his recruiting? Obviously he can coach 'em up once he's got them in the program, but the class looks a bit yikes.

He leans on the portal for now. 2025 class is where he needs to start doing better or at least cashing in on losing 2 games over 2 years. He has said he wont pursue an A&M or Oregon style NIL so i think his style will be a mixture of portal and high school. We can be worried if we aren’t competing for the better 2025 high school talent 

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Beau Vine

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1 hour ago, Codaxx said:

WE shall see. Trice vs Banks will be an important match-up. Even with Trice's play, Washington is dead last in sacks in the Pac 10. That number is actually worse than it appears. Washington is the only defense to see over 500 passing attempts. They have seen 97 more passing attempts than the average Pac 10 defense and still comfortable in last place in sacks. 

UDub rarely blitzes because the secondary is so bad.

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2 minutes ago, WilburHooksHand said:

He leans on the portal for now. 2025 class is where he needs to start doing better or at least cashing in on losing 2 games over 2 years. He has said he wont pursue an A&M or Oregon style NIL so i think his style will be a mixture of portal and high school. We can be worried if we aren’t competing for the better 2025 high school talent 

Woof. Good luck with that.

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Just now, Beau Vine said:

UDub rarely blitzes because the secondary is so bad.

yikes, for the huskies. if they can't get ewers with nervous feet it could be a long night.

Just now, Atticus said:

Woof. Good luck with that.

I was going to say, is this a Penix and its done sort of deal? Top 10 teams going forward will all do NIL very well.

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Beau Vine

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1 hour ago, troph said:

why? you don't even know the name of the edge rusher that's "all world" that sat out all season. your arguments are "Washington is good" and after information is provided "yeah, but Washington is better."

you really aren't adding much here. credit around here is earned, the hard way. right now you deserve the square root of jack shit and +2 rep shows it. I know you think we are a patsy bunch that can't take shit talking. no we don't suffer idiots, not even our own. bring value or don't it's up to you but don't come demanding shit from us. earn it.

Why are you acting like slorch?

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Just now, Beau Vine said:

Why are you acting like slorch?

look they've had 4-5 really shitty posters come over, this guy started similarly and is getting in line. I'm not interested in our board turning into an SEC rant or rivals shithole. I haven't said anything recently and even given him pos rep as his posts have improved.

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2 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

UDub rarely blitzes because the secondary is so bad.

 

21 minutes ago, troph said:

yikes, for the huskies. if they can't get ewers with nervous feet it could be a long night.

Unfortunately for us, Ewers has walked himself into several sacks vs. 3 & 4 man fronts since his return. I think he was just protecting his shoulder as much as possible, but he wasn't nearly as willing to run as he was early in the season & the 1 time he did vs OSU he missed the next play with an injury. Hopefully the month off allows his shoulder to fully heal & to gain confidence in being able to take off to get a first down when it's needed. If Ewers starts feeling phantom pressure then it's going to be a long night.

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2 minutes ago, hook me said:

 

Unfortunately for us, Ewers has walked himself into several sacks vs. 3 & 4 man fronts since his return. I think he was just protecting his shoulder as much as possible, but he wasn't nearly as willing to run as he was early in the season & the 1 time he did vs OSU he missed the next play with an injury. Hopefully the month off allows his shoulder to fully heal & to gain confidence in being able to take off to get a first down when it's needed. If Ewers starts feeling phantom pressure then it's going to be a long night.

don't think he walked into a sack the last two games. but yes if the Texas offense of mid-season shows up, Texas is in a world of hurt unless the Texas defense somehow turns this into a 24-17 // 27-24 type game.

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32 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Utah needed a miracle to beat Baylor.

Utah needed a miracle.......to beat Baylor.

Utah.......needed........a miracle. To beat Baylor.

That's who UW struggled to beat at home.

means nothing. transitive property and models are almost meaningless to apply to washington because penix has the ability to make throws and flip the field on any given play unlike anyone else. It’s why washington breaks all the pate models and shit like that. Washington is always one snap away from scoring anywhere on the field, always. 

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WilburHooksHand

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18 minutes ago, troph said:

don't think he walked into a sack the last two games. but yes if the Texas offense of mid-season shows up, Texas is in a world of hurt unless the Texas defense somehow turns this into a 24-17 // 27-24 type game.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see that kind of score. Its in line with a lot of our games. Uw doesnt always win big, they just seem to win.

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19 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Imagine thinking allowing suicide bullying and bigoted slurs makes a board more grown-up. It's not that we're stuck in kindergarten, it's that we moved past middle school. 

Bro, you wish you could be edgy enough to suggest that someone should kill themselves. Always hilarious and original.

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ztejas

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6 minutes ago, WilburHooksHand said:

means nothing. transitive property and models are almost meaningless to apply to washington because penix has the ability to make throws and flip the field on any given play unlike anyone else. It’s why washington breaks all the pate models and shit like that. Washington is always one snap away from scoring anywhere on the field, always. 

K.

Texas has more plays of 40+, 50+ and 60+ yards on the season than UW.

Screenshot_20231206_141519_Chrome.thumb.jpg.58796642a53704eb8ff11cb11a3eb8bc.jpg

We also have the nation's leading punt returner.

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15 minutes ago, WilburHooksHand said:

means nothing. transitive property and models are almost meaningless to apply to washington because penix has the ability to make throws and flip the field on any given play unlike anyone else. It’s why washington breaks all the pate models and shit like that. Washington is always one snap away from scoring anywhere on the field, always. 

i mean they actually are very close offensively when it comes to explosive plays, with Texas technically being more explosive all things considered.

http://www.cfbstats.com/2023/leader/national/team/offense/split01/category30/sort01.html

rank is of 133 teams.

image.thumb.png.e5bcf1477207ef43b2c39d4d5ada2c99.png

Texas was actually pretty significantly more explosive on 50+ yard plays with 17 to 11 for Washington

<30 Texas had 74 vs 68

10-29, Washington had the advantage 303 to 296

here's the full top 5 for comparison. Jayden Daniels is a really damn good player.

Spoiler

image.thumb.png.cbf410bab82e1b27dd035777f9736ff7.png

 

 

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, ztejas said:

K.

Texas has more plays of 40+, 50+ and 60+ yards on the season than UW.

Screenshot_20231206_141519_Chrome.thumb.jpg.58796642a53704eb8ff11cb11a3eb8bc.jpg

We also have the nation's leading punt returner.

im so happy for you. uw doesn’t win because they generate more of those plays. They win because they generate them when it matters.

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20 minutes ago, WilburHooksHand said:

I wouldn’t be shocked to see that kind of score. Its in line with a lot of our games. Uw doesnt always win big, they just seem to win.

I don't think UW has the defense to impose that score, so if it's that you're in trouble unless Ewers and team have imploded.

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2 minutes ago, WilburHooksHand said:

im so happy for you. uw doesn’t win because they generate more of those plays. They win because they generate them when it matters.

that's not a skillset that teams or play callers actually have. they aren't out here holding the good plays back to unleash them at the perfect moment - especially when you guys have been in 7 games decided by <7 points this season and 4 in a row.

Grubb and DeBoer aren't waiting to call the touchdown play man, come on!

 

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25 minutes ago, NoName said:

that's not a skillset that teams or play callers actually have. they aren't out here holding the good plays back to unleash them at the perfect moment - especially when you guys have been in 7 games decided by <7 points this season and 4 in a row.

Grubb and DeBoer aren't waiting to call the touchdown play man, come on!

 

winners win

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chainsaw

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42 minutes ago, WilburHooksHand said:

Washington is always one snap away from scoring anywhere on the field, always. 

Not quite what I saw this season. I'm not one of those people who looks at low margins of victory and assumes that tells the whole story, but having followed the Huskies all season, I saw a very vulnerable team that flirted with Ls all season much like FSU. Would not really call this a powderkeg offense. I'll give them credit for beating the Ducks twice and being clutch against Pac 12 competition, but a lot of their conference opponents were overrated as a secondary effect of USC having been massively overrated at the beginning of the season. Utah is near the top of that conference and probably should have lost to Baylor, which is in the running for the worst P5 team. That's a weak conference, and I expect the Pac to underperform in the bowls.

The huskies have not seen linemen like ours, and it will be a rude awakening.

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the recruiting and NIL angle has me curious about Kalen DeBoer.  So Penix was his QB when he was a coordinator at Indiana and DeBoer has had two spectacular years first and second year after Washington shit the bed in 2021 after the short COVID year in 2020. Lake was the coach then. Before that Petersen who did pretty well, a few 10 win seasons with mostly bowl losses. DeBoer wins big at Sioux Falls (NAIA and now Div II) but they appear to always win - noting that he took them to another level certainly wining their second, third and fouth championships. He had a quick stop at Fresno then jumped over to Washington and took off with an 11-2 record in year 1.  Interestingly Penix has been there for both years. Trying not to shit on other WA players, I think it's clear their success is very, very much dependent upon their senior and heisman finalist QB.

So I'm curious what we know about this guy and what the future looks like for him? 

His last recruiting class and the one in the works appear to be meh.

one of the Washington posters here said they aren't going all in on NIL (which means both high school and portal difficulty for the best players).

What's next? a drop off after Penix?

Move to the Big 10 with the best of the Pac-12, so add Mich, tOSU, Penn State to the mix?

I guess I fell down the rabbit hole and am wondering what the next 5-6 years of football look like for them with what appears to be a great coach, and a serious disadvantage in recruiting.  thoughts?

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39 minutes ago, WilburHooksHand said:

im so happy for you. uw doesn’t win because they generate more of those plays. They win because they generate them when it matters.

Friends Lol GIF by Max

 

11 minutes ago, WilburHooksHand said:

winners win

This I agree with & Penix has delivered when needed this year. It's part of what makes him special. If it comes down to the last possession of the game I sure hope we have the ball trying to score & not y'all.

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