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Week 14, 2023, Texas v Washington, College Football Playoff Edition

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Posted by alphahydro,

I haven't watched enough Washington games to say anything useful about matchups, schemes, etc.  So I pulled some stats while I was bored.  TL;DR - I looked at Wash's results against teams roughly as good as Texas and vice versa (based on stats I pulled over the past week while i was bored. You may or may not think these stats are relevant). Based on the stats I pulled for Texas, UW, and each team's 2023 opponents: Assuming the Pac-12 and Big XII are pretty similar, the stats I
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Billy Pilgrim

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I love how they are expecting this game to go like last year’s game. We had a bunch of opt outs and receivers played their worst game of the season and we went toe to toe with them. If the team and coaching staff that showed up in Tuscaloosa shows up on Monday, the huskies are going to get smacked around.

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alphahydro

alphahydro 334

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, sushihorn said:

I’m struggling to control my optimism. CFB is largely confined to regional cells, isolated from each other. It’s hard to compare records, stats or even SoS when there are virtually no common opponents and few second degree comparisons until the end of the year. Now we are getting data  

Frankly, Texas’ opponents have performed much better than Washington’s have. The difference has been so great that it’s tempting to regard UW’s season stats as fools gold. I’m more focused on the defensive results which are less likely to be severely skewed by a few opt outs than offenses. And frankly the PAC-12 slate plus Boise have looked bad. 

Arizona smacked Oklahoma’s scout team but they gave up over 200 rushing yards and 350 passing yards to a Freshman quarterback seeing his first real action and a 3rd string tailback playing behind a salvage yard O-Line. 363 yards passing and 111 on the ground doesn’t look that impressive now, does it?

Boise faced UCLA which UW did not this year. The Bruins had slightly lower offensive output than Washington but with a hugely different distribution. UCLA had 280 rushing to (78) for UW and 230 to (478) passing. Oregon St gave up 110 rushing 162 passing to UW vs 232 and 236 to the Domers. Cal surrendered 256 passing to Texas Tech vs to (389) for UW and 128 to (140) rushing.

Utah v Northwestern: 225 (332) passing, 65 (125) rushing

USC v Louisville: 141 (256) passing, 220 (316) rushing

Oregon vs Liberty TBD


TL;DR - With a bunch of decent teams matching up, UW’s offense looks pretty comparable to their schedule’s bowl matchups. Their offensive results are clearly superior to Louisville and Northwestern but inferior to ND. Running results are very similar to TTU and OU’s replacements but way below UCLA. Not suggestive of anything more than an average ground attack.

 

I dunno about injuries and opt-outs on AZ's side, but if I was a UW fan, I would be a little concerned about that AZ bowl game. 

Arizona won (and it was glorious) but they got worked on the ground.  OU (sucks) looked considerably more physical and dynamic than AZ to me. 

After OU took the lead, Arizona had a stretch of consecutive drives of

  • -12 yards
  • 22 yards
  • 0 yards
  • 7 yards
  • -9 yards

(including sacks) AZ rushed for 29 yards on 26 carries, while allowing OU to rush for 201 on 34.

(AZ and WA each ran for 111 on each other, on 26 and 31 rushes)

I don't think there is a transitive property, and UW at full health will presumably be better on defense on 1/1 than they were in the UW/AZ game earlier in the season, but to me, it looked like there was an athleticism gap between OU and AZ that didn't show up in the UW/AZ game.  And what you could see on the TV showed up in the stats. 

If this shows up in the sugar bowl, I think it will be in the run game and short passing game. it may allow Texas more flexibility in play calling and force UW to execute at an even higher level on deeper passes (which, unfortunately, they are capable of).  but idk. 

 

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BurntEyes

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6 hours ago, Billy Pilgrim said:

I love how they are expecting this game to go like last year’s game. We had a bunch of opt outs and receivers played their worst game of the season and we went toe to toe with them. If the team and coaching staff that showed up in Tuscaloosa shows up on Monday, the huskies are going to get smacked around.

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BurntEyes

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36 minutes ago, Jkwellborn said:


If it is Washington and Michigan, it will probably be the lowest rated CFP championship game.

Ehh.. I think the LSU v Alabama was the worst.

Say what you will about the west coast fan base, they do love to throw on a T-shirt for a winner and hate.

B1G are all pretty huge football watching fans. In broader aspects, better than most based on my experience. Plus the hate for Michigan is strong. 

That game would get good TV views for sure. I'd watch... but unfortunately I'll be at the game watching Texas win so TV won't be an option. 🤘

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Bobby Layne

Bobby Layne 268

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3 hours ago, Hornius Emeritus said:

In case it has not been posted, Texas and Notre Dame are tied for #4 in all-time wins. Each team has 948. If Texas wins on Monday, Notre Dame drops to 5th all-time.

 

Before we went dark (thanks to Mack-chilly-Mensa) for 12 years (2010-2022) Texas went back and forth with Mich for total wins for decades. We fell waaay behind during that sad period. 

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Hornius Emeritus

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28 minutes ago, Bobby Layne said:

Before we went dark (thanks to Mack-chilly-Mensa) for 12 years (2010-2022) Texas went back and forth with Mich for total wins for decades. We fell waaay behind during that sad period. 


I don't think we've ever been within 30-40 wins of Michigan. Notre Dame was second for a long time, then we supplanted them for a while. I don't believe there has ever been a day in which Texas has been #1 in all-time wins. I could be wrong about that. We are currently 16 behind Ohio State and 17 behind Alabama.

Edited by Hornius Emeritus
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Doc Daneeka

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Just now, Hornius Emeritus said:


I don't believe we ever came within 30-40 wins of Michigan. Notre Dame was second, then we supplanted them for a while. I don't believe there has ever been a day in which Texas has been #1 in all-time wins. I could be wrong about that. We are 18 behind Ohio State and 19 behind Alabama.

16 and 18, incoming. 

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Crapinon

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2 hours ago, TheMailBox357 said:

 

Husky's are better at everything? Texas OL is soft and never faced a defense like UW. Brooks is the only capable back they had. Worthy is too skinny and will get pushed around. He's no threat at all. Hit Sanders hard enough and he'll be too scared to run routes. JW will have no effect. These guys have it all figured out. They should be coaches.

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TheMailBox357

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On 12/28/2023 at 12:20 PM, TheMailBox357 said:

Both the analytics duo of College Football Nerds has UT beating UW by double digits (Keep in my mind they accurately predicted that OU would beat UT close in the RRS when most fans & media assumed that UT would beat OU comfortablely):

 

 

1 interesting they talked about in this video is that they feel UW's running game actually drives their offense which plays into UT's strength.

 

On 12/28/2023 at 2:11 PM, sushihorn said:

That is correct. They have to run or have a lot of success in the short passing game to force a safety closer to the LOS and open things up downfield. And only a real running threat can slow down the pass rush. Their outside receivers are very good on jump balls but that’s against single coverage, not with a safety over the top.

IMHO Washington needs to at least have our LBs thinking pass first to sustain drives with the run. If they play run fits with a 6 man box there won’t be any room between the tackles. We will need contingent run support from a weak side DB but the team speed match up is going to make it hard for Johnson to turn the corner. I think UW will have to double team at least the play side DT to run the ball so there will be an unblocked defender with 11 personnel vs 6 in the box. That changes if the QB is a real running threat but Penix is not. 

I'm currently listening to Scipio Tex & Longhorn Scott on the most recent 3-part episodes of the "Everybody Gets a Trophy" podcast and they seem to agree that UW is a playaction passing team & NOT a profolic dropback passing team (i.e. 2019 LSU) that everyone assumes.

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Bevo14

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30 minutes ago, Bama Llama said:

SIAP but too lazy to go back and read 50 pages. Will you guys will be watching ESPN on mute with an alternate sound source on Monday, what with Sean McDonough and Greg McElroy on the call?

No. Tim Brando has lowered the standard so much that I'm grateful for anybody else. I would've taken JarJar Binks in the booth.

Edited by Bevo14
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Bama Llama

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2 minutes ago, Bevo14 said:

No. Tim Brando has lowered the standard so much that I'm grateful for anybody else.

This year after five minutes we muted the volume watching Bama - Auburn. Could not bear Gary Danielson’s whining again. It was still gut-wrenching but at least we didn’t have to hear Gary’s “analysis “ of every last fucking play ad nauseum. Bad for Mrs Llama’s bp. We listened to the Bama radio call on delay. Strange but 100% better than CBS. I offered to pause and restart the live video but was vetoed. Don’t care. We somehow survived.

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HOOKEM4

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37 minutes ago, Bama Llama said:

SIAP but too lazy to go back and read 50 pages. Will you guys will be watching ESPN on mute with an alternate sound source on Monday, what with Sean McDonough and Greg McElroy on the call?

Wait until you find out you can watch the game with Craig Way on espn3 like any civilized Texas fan.

 

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LonghornSean

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1 hour ago, Bama Llama said:

SIAP but too lazy to go back and read 50 pages. Will you guys will be watching ESPN on mute with an alternate sound source on Monday, what with Sean McDonough and Greg McElroy on the call?

I’ll be at the game, but the Longhorn Radio broadcast with Craig Way will be simulcast on LHN and through ESPN app.

That said I don’t mind McDonough and McElroy.

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Bama Llama

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22 minutes ago, HOOKEM4 said:

Wait until you find out you can watch the game with Craig Way on espn3 like any civilized Texas fan.

 

ESPN3 not available in my corner of the world. No matter, by the time the Sugar Bowl kicks off I’ll either be so pissed or so high it won’t matter who’s calling it. Horns got this anyway. Sweat alone will stop UW run game and Ewers, Worthy, Mitchell, Sanders (sp?) and the RBs will have a good day. Horns win going away. Was just thinking I would hate to listen to McD and McE call the game my team was playing to get to the championship.

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troph

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56 minutes ago, Crapinon said:

Husky's are better at everything? Texas OL is soft and never faced a defense like UW. Brooks is the only capable back they had. Worthy is too skinny and will get pushed around. He's no threat at all. Hit Sanders hard enough and he'll be too scared to run routes. JW will have no effect. These guys have it all figured out. They should be coaches.

I watched for 8 mins. They are special. East coast bias, loved his guys swagger in press conferences, they are running their mouths. Texas plays Texas football, Texas wins. 

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HOOKEM4

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9 minutes ago, Bama Llama said:

ESPN3 not available in my corner of the world. No matter, by the time the Sugar Bowl kicks off I’ll either be so pissed or so high it won’t matter who’s calling it. Horns got this anyway. Sweat alone will stop UW run game and Ewers, Worthy, Mitchell, Sanders (sp?) and the RBs will have a good day. Horns win going away. Was just thinking I would hate to listen to McD and McE call the game my team was playing to get to the championship.

So you don't have internet? Then you are screwed. Bring lube because it is going to be a rough 3-4 hours.

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sushihorn

sushihorn 3233

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38 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

And for all the hype about how their passing game is bad matchup for our secondary ... go look at Penix's game log.  If you take out the games where they ran up the score on a terrible OOC schedule, his last 10 games of the year against Pac 12 opponents was good but not great.  This was his stat line in those 10 games:

223/353 (63%), 2,886 YDS, 21 TDS, 8 INTS,  146.9 QB Rating   

Ewers actually has better numbers against real opponents than Penix.  In 9 games against P5 opponents (the 8 games Big 12 games that Ewers played in, plus the Alabama game) here is Quinn's stat line:

218/300 (73%), 2,770 YDS, 16 TDS, 6 INTS, 163.8 QB Rating

Half the board was bitching about him until the Big 12 Championship Game, and yet we're supposed to be scared of the guy who was markedly worse against Pac 12 teams?  The guy who, btw, despite supposed 1st round hype from the Mel Kipers of the world, is still in college for year 6 instead of the NFL?

Quinn is definitely underrated as a passer but he’s not better than Penix. The Longhorn receivers’ superpower is YAC and our coaching staff creates a lot of favorable matchups and coverage busts. So Ewers gets a lot of receiver running (especially screens) tacked on and easy pitch and catch to wide open men. Penix gets help from his guys but he’s having to get the ball downfield with high accuracy just to create the jump ball situations. 

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troph

troph 24781

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If you give WA offense it’s due - easy to do 

If you give TX offense it’s due - also easy to do

Then it comes down to which defense has the tools to slow down the other just enough. 

Texas run defense and third down defense to me wins the day.  Best of the best. They will be tested and do worse than their averages but I think Texas is better positioned in this one than the WA defense. That’s the game.

I’m riding the Horns to victory. Let’s go.


 

 

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Hornius Emeritus

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31 minutes ago, sushihorn said:

Quinn is definitely underrated as a passer but he’s not better than Penix. The Longhorn receivers’ superpower is YAC and our coaching staff creates a lot of favorable matchups and coverage busts. So Ewers gets a lot of receiver running (especially screens) tacked on and easy pitch and catch to wide open men. Penix gets help from his guys but he’s having to get the ball downfield with high accuracy just to create the jump ball situations. 



I just heard that Quinn is #1 in the FBS in 4th quarter QBR.  Also, Texas is 4th in terms of the length of time we give our QB's to throw before first pressure arrives: 3.19 seconds. The only teams  that gave their QBs more time before the defense got there were UTEP, Utah and Bama.  Washington's defense is not going to get to him too often.

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thunderlounge

thunderlounge 7814

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2 hours ago, Bama Llama said:

This year after five minutes we muted the volume watching Bama - Auburn. Could not bear Gary Danielson’s whining again. It was still gut-wrenching but at least we didn’t have to hear Gary’s “analysis “ of every last fucking play ad nauseum. Bad for Mrs Llama’s bp. We listened to the Bama radio call on delay. Strange but 100% better than CBS. I offered to pause and restart the live video but was vetoed. Don’t care. We somehow survived.


For your game, check the sec network. Your radio broadcast will be all synced up. 
 

 

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