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Texas opens as a 5 point favorite v Washington in the CFP Sugar Bowl

TexasMan

By TexasMan
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gmr548

gmr548 16576

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Posted
We are a better team than last year across the board and a much better team than the Alamo Bowl team without RoJo and Bijan.
I'm not sure UW has made the same kind of improvements.  But their O is definitely formidable, especially considering our vulnerability there.  But I think we're actually a bit better there, certainly more effective up front, and I'm not all that sure UW is a whole lot better than what we saw last year.
I think we're definitely a better-rounded team.

Oh I agree, Texas as a slight favorite feels right to me. I’m just poking fun at the extra clownish takes
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TexArcher

TexArcher 37774

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20 minutes ago, Helobious said:

Yeah I loled when he said he was worried about Penix scrambling. TexArcher probably thinks Maalik Murphy is a mobile QB too because, you know…

This is honestly your best post ever on this site.  It's slightly funny and not filled with demonstrably incorrect takes, bandwagon jumping, jinx casting, or any of your other typical buffoonery.  There might be hope for you yet.

3 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

I may be an asshole, but people wrongly assuming that a black quarterback can scramble will never not be funny to me.

The lead-up to Geno Smith's draft was my Super Bowl.

Yeah, Penix is deceptively slow.  Got it.

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JFKFC

JFKFC 4878

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

I don't want to belabor the point, but we were going to take Penix in the transfer portal a few years ago until closetojumping beat him in the 40 and then our money guys stopped payment on the NIL.

Is that true or are you just screwing around?

Edited by JFKFC
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taybo20

taybo20 2825

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2 hours ago, burntorangebongos said:

Not with our DTs. They are way more fucked than we are. If we rush and harass Pennick without worrying about being held without consequence then that is the key to mitigating our db weakness. We have got to be aggressive against their line and QB. 
If Evers shows up big for this game, we have the right skill players on O to seize the day. And baby Manning playing clean up in his home town because you know Sark will classily give him playing time if we can. Shit, this game can really be a showcase for this program and fun for the team. We are going to make them score less than normal, and we’ll see which Ewers shows up. Go Horns!

Penix can struggle…we’ve seen it throughout the year. We do have to get consistent pressure. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16576

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can someone translate this to english please? 

Washington O vs Texas D is elite on elite. Washington should only run as much as they absolutely have to in order to keep the Texas defense honest because the Texas pass defense is an attractive matchup. Interestingly, that was the thought going into the Alamo Bowl and Washington ran it down Texas’s throat.

Texas O has an advantage on the Washington D but the red zone remains a glaring issue. If they can close drives they will probably score a lot.

Don’t bet either side they aren’t consistent.

$9.95 plz
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gmr548

gmr548 16576

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And came up with pounding Keilan between the tackles.  It was strange.

Sark was treating that game as practice for Ewers, first and foremost. He knew he had a very thin RB room (remember there was a Brooks injury of some kind) and frankly the outcome of the game was not that important as opposed to getting Ewers a taste of really being the focal point the offense like he would be expected to in 2023.

Texas defense vs Washington can be relatively instructive but I would really not place a lot of stock on the Texas offense from that game. The personnel, game plan, and stakes are all going to be quite different.
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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54211

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3 minutes ago, WBT said:

And came up with pounding Keilan between the tackles.  It was strange.

Sark should just stick with that, IMO.

I mean, shit, Washington only won because of guys not playing, and dropped passes that weren't in the game plan, and the nefarious officiating conspiracy. 

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El Squared

El Squared 1802

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1 hour ago, JGrayDBU said:

Our secondary and PK is gonna hear how porous they were against OSU every day for a month.  If that doesn't motivate and inspire our back 4, nothing will.  

 

I still give Penix  3 TDs passing and at least one running...28 for them...and 49 for the good guys.....tiny bit of luck is how healthy do we come out after defeating Wash.  

take the over.

I say give Penix 3 STDs instead….

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petscii

petscii 1189

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2 hours ago, TexArcher said:

I was surprised to see this line, tbh.

I think Washington is the least favorable matchup of the other three teams for us.

If we don't get pressure on Penix, he can pick apart our shaky secondary.  If we do get pressure on him, he might be able to scramble for big chunks.

I honestly thought they might be favored by a point or two here.

I guess people are looking at us scoring 57 and 49 and assuming that we can light up Washington's defense?  Which could very well be right.

I made money on the moneyline vs Oregon the other day.   Washington does not get the respect they deserve. 

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billfromlaketravis

billfromlaketravis 11458

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Posted (edited)

Penix has a month to get healthy. UW might benefit the most from the long layoff. 
 

Then again, Ewers should also be 100% healthy. 
 

Should be a hell of a game. Two best play callers in the game. I hope PK has something for them. 
 

I assume Vegas thinks it’ll be a 80% Texas crowd. 

Edited by billfromlaketravis
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Nicole44

Nicole44 22059

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When I went to the Alamo Bowl last year I thought two things: DeBoer was doing a great job and I bet they will be good in the Pac12 in 2023. Crazy to think that these two teams would get a rematch on an even bigger stage. We are very evenly matched. Experience favors Penix but he still makes wtf throws. They win ugly like us. They seem different for several minutes after halftime like us. They have many weapons like we do but ours are better collectively. This should be a very close game. One I believe we can win if we keep pushing and don’t let off the gas for stretches in the 3rd quarter. That was Sark’s pregame outfit. The other picture was from our seats. They were great! Thrilled to play in at least one bowl game out of state man. lol. 

IMG_4903.jpeg

IMG_4883.jpeg

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alphahydro

alphahydro 334

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4 hours ago, Gidnik said:

can someone translate this to english please? 

I assume these are not adjusted numbers, but based on these numbers.

  1. Penix didn't get sacked much at all this year.  They are 3rd in the country in preventing sacks.  FWIW, all the Wash fans I saw on Reddit were saying their pass blocking was miles ahead of where it was last year when we faced them. 
  2. They ran the ball 42% of the time (124th in the country).  Our opponents ran the ball 42% of the time (3rd lowest % in the country).  So, if you can bet on 42% run plays by Wash, that may be a good bet. 
  3. Heads up (these are based on yards per play)
    1. Texas running the ball vs Wash D.   
      1. Texas 25th / Wash 70th
    2. Texas passing vs Wash D
      1. Texas 18th/Wash 23rd
    3. Washington Running vs Texas D
      1. Wash 40th/Texas 5th
    4. Washington Passing vs Texas D
      1. Wash 9th/Texas 31

If you give Grades based on percentile yards per play:

Texas passing is A vs A-  (Texas pass offense vs Wash pass defense)

Texas running is A- vs C

Washington passing is A vs B

Washington running is B vs A+

So based on those numbers, their passing attack is about as good as ours is.  They are better at preventing sacks, but much worse at run stopping and run blocking.  They are slightly better at stopping the pass. 

Someone can double check my work.  I think what is more important is looking at comparable opponents, which i will do at some point if I get some time. 

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alphahydro

alphahydro 334

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39 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Schitts Creek No GIF by CBC

2 other things washington fans said on reddit 1 - their pass defense wasn't that good either, and they don't tackle well.   so, over the course of the season, their pass yards per play was not as bad as texas' but it was in the same ballpark.  i'll look at how they did against good passing teams (vs how we did against good passing teams) and see what the box scores say. 

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54211

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13 minutes ago, alphahydro said:

2 other things washington fans said on reddit 1 - their pass defense wasn't that good either, and they don't tackle well.   so, over the course of the season, their pass yards per play was not as bad as texas' but it was in the same ballpark.  i'll look at how they did against good passing teams (vs how we did against good passing teams) and see what the box scores say. 

Washington's pass D has has been godawful, but played way better than usual in the P12C.  Both projected starting safeties (Turner and Cam Fab) were finally healthy enough to play significant snaps last week.  

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Pods

Pods 7552

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5 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

I mean, shit, Washington only won because of guys not playing, and dropped passes that weren't in the game plan, and the nefarious officiating conspiracy. 

We're proud of you for admitting this BV. 

Now, if you could just pass it on Kalen and the rest of the team, they can forfeit and focus on the holidays, and we'll start game planning for Michigan and Bama. 

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Park Gothic

Park Gothic 5018

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22 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Am I the only one walking around their house spontaneously saying "Let's Fucking Go" and throwing up the Horns??

I am so pumped. Just feels great to be relevant, competitive and fun to watch again. Just such a good feeling.

 

Me to my wife at random points throughout the day:

a-league-of-their-own-tom-hanks.gif

She found it pretty annoying at first but now she's starting to get on board. 

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alphahydro

alphahydro 334

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11 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

Washington's pass D has has been godawful, but played way better than usual in the P12C.  Both projected starting safeties (Turner and Cam Fab) were finally healthy enough to play significant snaps last week.  

makes sense (though not great news for texas fans).  i am just going on season long stats.  i only watched the oregon games. 

tbh, oregon's defense did not look well coached to me at all during the second game.  over the course of the season, oregon's defense rates well.  is the discrepancy because 

  1. something about washington's play calling confused the oregon players?
  2. oregon had some key injuries?
  3. the rest of oregon's opponents weren't that good at passing?
  4. something else? 

*****

fwiw, i've glanced at the stats some more, and it looks like penix' gaudy numbers (10+ yards per pass, 40+ points) all came against terrible pass defenses (ranked 90-127) but he held up well against oregon both times (~8 yards per pass / 85 QBR). 

Outside of Oregon and the 6 teams with awful pass defenses, most of the opposing pass defenses he faced were mid (ranked 57-79 nationally) and he mostly did well against those mid pass defenses, except against asu and wazzu (and to some extent Oregon State), where he had rough games.  Any idea why he struggled against these defenses but not Oregon?  curious to hear your thoughts, as I don't know much about any of those teams and only watched a tiny bit of the wazzu game. 

curious to read any other thoughts you have about the sugar bowl matchup.  

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Js1

Js1 85311

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12 hours ago, Hmbre97 said:

At first I was hoping we'd draw Michigan in the semi but the more I think about it, I think the extended prep time benefits us more with Washington than it does Michigan.

4 weeks to prep for Penix and the UW passing attack and then likely face Michigan or Alabama and stop the run a week later, which we do so well anyhow.  You're probably right. 

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54211

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I think the Oregon D got knocked on their heels by how much and how successfully Huskies were running.  Oregon's run D had been very good this season, but they got trucked early.

ASU D and Wazzu D succeeded by blitzing a lot, especially up the middle.  Oregon tried to do that, but UDub had obviously prepared a lot for that and did a much better job at blitz pickups (particularly RB #7 Johnson).  

If I'm Texas, I'd still plan to blitz a lot and on offense, I'd throw a lot at #25 and always throw when the other #7 (Hampton) is playing safety.

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alphahydro

alphahydro 334

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22 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

I think the Oregon D got knocked on their heels by how much and how successfully Huskies were running.  Oregon's run D had been very good this season, but they got trucked early.

ASU D and Wazzu D succeeded by blitzing a lot, especially up the middle.  Oregon tried to do that, but UDub had obviously prepared a lot for that and did a much better job at blitz pickups (particularly RB #7 Johnson).  

If I'm Texas, I'd still plan to blitz a lot and on offense, I'd throw a lot at #25 and always throw when the other #7 (Hampton) is playing safety.

interesting.  i noticed the one thing sark said about wash during some tv interview i saw was something like "they're a great team.  they're doing a good job running the ball with dillon johnson.  he's really come on lately"  which now makes more sense. 

sounds like tosh got out-coached, which doesn't surprise me.  and my overriding feeling during that game was that oregon's defense just looked poorly coached and poorly prepared.  i guess some of that was great scheming by washington.  

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texastough

texastough 1129

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Posted (edited)

Lot of discussion about Penix here, but it was Washington's other skill players that impressed me vs. Oregon. Dillon Johnson is legit and he runs with a chip on his shoulder. The announcers couldn't shut up about Odunze at WR (stud), and Polk made a couple big catches late, but McMillan jumped out to me. He made dudes miss every time he touched the ball. Big time player. 

I love our team but the D needs to bring it this game. 

HOOK EM

Edited by texastough
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Codaxx

Codaxx 5731

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Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, texastough said:

Lot of discussion about Penix here, but it was Washington's other skill players that impressed me vs. Oregon. Dillon Johnson is legit and he runs with a chip on his shoulder. The announcers couldn't shut up about Odunze at WR (stud), and Polk made a couple big catches late, but McMillan jumped out to me. He made dudes miss every time he touched the ball. Big time player. 

I love our team but the D needs to bring it this game. 

HOOK EM

This is one of the few teams in the country that can match WR talent with Texas.. This will be the biggest test for the secondary this season. 

Edited by Codaxx
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Irish Wrist Watch

Irish Wrist Watch 1359

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18 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Penix has a month to get healthy. UW might benefit the most from the long layoff. 
 

Then again, Ewers should also be 100% healthy. 

Ewers was probably at 80% Saturday. 100% is gonna look pretty damn good. AND we need to keep him that way thru the next two games.

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Doc Daneeka

Doc Daneeka 6769

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Just now, B00M said:

@Doc Daneeka do you have a thought you’d like to share with the class? 

Yeah. Anyone who thinks Washington “handled” Texas with a seven point win with Robinson and Johnson out, Overshown out, Brooks with a sports hernia, Worthy with a broken hand, and Ewers and the team being prepped more for 2023 than that game  probably doesn’t have a complete handle on the scenario. 

If Washington “handles” Texas the same way in two days, they’ll be run out of the stadium. 

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B00M

B00M 6414

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3 minutes ago, Doc Daneeka said:

Yeah. Anyone who thinks Washington “handled” Texas with a seven point win with Robinson and Johnson out, Overshown out, Brooks with a sports hernia, Worthy with a broken hand, and Ewers and the team being prepped more for 2023 than that game  probably doesn’t have a complete handle on the scenario. 

If Washington “handles” Texas the same way in two days, they’ll be run out of the stadium. 

I guess they had no opt outs or injuries? They had a 2 score lead most of the game and it was very much a road game for them. They’re coming into this game KNOWING they can beat Texas. I don’t think they will do it again, but they won’t be lacking confidence. I don’t see how that’s debatable, let alone offensive to you. Hook em

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kwood4408

kwood4408 756

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I guess they had no opt outs or injuries? They had a 2 score lead most of the game and it was very much a road game for them. They’re coming into this game KNOWING they can beat Texas. I don’t think they will do it again, but they won’t be lacking confidence. I don’t see how that’s debatable, let alone offensive to you. Hook em

I don’t remember them having any major opt outs.
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Doc Daneeka

Doc Daneeka 6769

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14 minutes ago, B00M said:

I guess they had no opt outs or injuries? They had a 2 score lead most of the game and it was very much a road game for them. They’re coming into this game KNOWING they can beat Texas. I don’t think they will do it again, but they won’t be lacking confidence. I don’t see how that’s debatable, let alone offensive to you. Hook em

Alabama, Tech, TCU, and Oklahoma State came into games this season KNOWING they can beat Texas, too. That’s not really the point. Of course Washington could win and I’m sure they’re confident. 

Maybe Washington went into the game without 90% of their rushing yards, but I don’t remember that. What happened last season against an 8-4 Texas isn’t going to help them against a 12-1 Texas team with this season’s personnel and, even last season, “handled” is a bit of an overstatement, imo. 

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