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Ohtani Signs $700m deal

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Macklemore

Macklemore 2873

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, UpperWestside said:

Yes, yes I am and very blessed to do what I do for a living both personally and financially. 

No knock on what you do for a living. I have a lot of respect and love for the restaurant industry. It’s just a little weird that you’re plying your schtick here on a UT message board when you have no ties to our alma mater or association with any of our rivals or any college whatsoever.

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52545

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Reportedly interest free.  So I guess you could say it’s something like a $650MM contract instead. 

580 million in the bank making 6% a year turns into 1.04 billion in 10 years.  So it’s damn near a 20 million dollar contract if ownership gets to keep those earnings.  If they have to escrow it. And really it’s more because they don’t give it all to him immediately after year 10 so the balance keeps earning for them as they pay it down over the following years. 

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19452

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Macklemore said:

No knock on what you do for a living. I have a lot of respect and love for the restaurant industry. It’s just a little weird that you’re plying your schtick here on a UT message board when you have no ties to our alma mater or association with any of our rivals or any college whatsoever.

We have lots of people on here with little ties to UT.  Hell, I'm one of the more frequent assholes on here and I only went to UT undergrad for 2.5 years and am not even from Texas.  I don't think you need a degree from UT to discuss Ohtani's deal.  Hell, Cybertex doesn't even think Ohtani should have ties to this board of pro baseball because he doesn't speak Engrish.

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Celery Man

Celery Man 20982

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Macklemore said:

No knock on what you do for a living. I have a lot of respect and love for the restaurant industry. It’s just a little weird that you’re plying your schtick here on a UT message board when you have no ties to our alma mater or association with any of our rivals or any college whatsoever.

Not the weirdest combination of traits and shticks I’ve seen.

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5298

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, C-Man said:

Would suck if the dude dies before his big payouts start. The whole point of earning that kind of money is enjoying having that much money.

I read yesterday he already makes upwards of $50M/year in endorsements in Japan.

There's not a whole lot in this world that you can't afford on $52M/year that you could afford if only you were making $120M/year.

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Guadaloopy

Guadaloopy 10996

Posted
Posted

Not ready to jump off a cliff yet and say this contract is the end of any semblance of competitive balance in baseball. 

I fucking hate the Dodgers, but I have to begrudgingly tip my cap for an exceptionally smart approach to setting up a mega-contract for a baseball unicorn.  It’s brilliant.  Minimize salary cap impacts while taking advantage of the time value of money to get a significant discount at the same time.   It really is genius.

The really cool thing about it is that it doesn’t box out small markets from making similar moves.  Sure, the big guys will take advantage of it until the next CBA puts some limits on it, but there’s nothing stopping a small market from using deferred payments and the benefits of compounding interest to be a little more competitive.

 

 

 

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Helobious

Helobious 9464

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Well no small market team could afford the back-end of the contract. This is a loophole that's going to get closed at the first opportunity and one that could only be exploited by a team like Dodgers that have a really, really good tv deal.

Bullshit. There’s no MLB teams or owners hurting for money. They simply choose not to field a competitive payroll in order to maximize profit.

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Guadaloopy

Guadaloopy 10996

Posted
Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Well no small market team could afford the back-end of the contract. This is a loophole that's going to get closed at the first opportunity and one that could only be exploited by a team like Dodgers that have a really, really good tv deal.

Disagree.  Small market teams could get creative with financing and defer payments just as much as the big boys.  It just requires foresight, planning, and most importantly, discipline. 

ETA... it also requires a willing party on the other side who can see the value of delayed gratification.  i.e.  Can I live on a few million a year for the next decade in order to get paid nine figures when I retire?

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54335

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, UpperWestside said:

I thought at first someone must have been duped. I guess it comes from not often epecting athletes to do things that can best position their team to be as strong as is possible. Ohtani is just a different type of human being it seems.

Yeah, he's a mark, because the people who own the Dodgers have more than enough money to pay more luxury taxes than everyone else in the league combined.

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54335

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, kevwun said:

Well no small market team could afford the back-end of the contract. This is a loophole that's going to get closed at the first opportunity and one that could only be exploited by a team like Dodgers that have a really, really good tv deal.

This is bullshit, and it's what happens when the media portrays contracts as expenses rather than investments.  

A small market team would likely generate even more marginal revenue than the Dodgers would because they would have more empty seats to fill.

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kevwun

kevwun 15816

Posted
Posted

Over the life of the deal, it would depend if they are competitive. Attendance isn't going to be impacted after the first year or 2 if they aren't making the playoffs.  Stick him on the Pirates or Royals and tell me he's still going to be boosting attendance in year 4 if they are still being the Pirates and the Royals.

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11669

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Over the life of the deal, it would depend if they are competitive. Attendance isn't going to be impacted after the first year or 2 if they aren't making the playoffs.  Stick him on the Pirates or Royals and tell me he's still going to be boosting attendance in year 4 if they are still being the Pirates and the Royals.

we can basically look backward at the angels as the test case.  how much marginal interest did they gain getting his popularity, but not winning?  they've been the same shit team since 2016, one time 2nd in the west but still sub .500 even then.  ohtani has been a part of it since 2018.  attendance isn't any better with him.  worse the last few years.

 

Year Tm Lg W L Finish Playoffs Attendance Attend/G Rank Est. Payroll PPF BPF Stadium
2023 Los Angeles Angels AL West 73 89 4   2,640,575 32,600 6th of 15 $218,537,055 104 104 Angel Stadium of Anaheim
2022 Los Angeles Angels AL West 73 89 3   2,457,461 30,339 5th of 15 $167,063,095 103 103 Angel Stadium of Anaheim
2021 Los Angeles Angels AL West 77 85 4   1,515,689 18,484 6th of 15 $188,408,595 103 103 Angel Stadium of Anaheim
2020 Los Angeles Angels AL West 26 34 4       8th of 15 $181,254,762 102 101 Angel Stadium of Anaheim
2019 Los Angeles Angels AL West 72 90 4   3,023,012 37,321 2nd of 15 $158,078,584 100 100 Angel Stadium of Anaheim
2018 Los Angeles Angels AL West 80 82 4   3,020,216 37,287 2nd of 15 $166,849,666 98 98 Angel Stadium of Anaheim
2017 Los Angeles Angels AL West 80 82 2   3,019,585 37,279 3rd of 15 $181,125,500 97 97 Angel Stadium of Anaheim
2016 Los Angeles Angels AL West 74 88 4   3,016,142 37,236 3rd of 15 $139,712,000 95 95 Angel Stadium of Anaheim
2015 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim AL West 85 77 3   3,012,765 37,195 2nd of 15 $131,522,500 94 94 Angel Stadium of Anaheim
2014 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim AL West 98 64 1 Lost ALDS (3-0) 3,095,935 38,221 2nd of 15 $128,667,000 94 95 Angel Stadium of Anaheim
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Sbbruin

Sbbruin 21865

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Pam Cummings said:

I don't understand why this contract is allowed, but it is. They probably figured a team would never take it to such an extreme. But this is just not a good thing. Could a smaller market team afford to do this? If not, is that not a problem? Shouldn't teams in theory be operating on even footing?

Baseball is one sport where teams are definitely NOT operating on even footing.  The "haves" have always had the upper hand.

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UpperWestside

UpperWestside 6181

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

Yeah, he's a mark, because the people who own the Dodgers have more than enough money to pay more luxury taxes than everyone else in the league combined.

Oh they can pay taxes and salary many times over what they actually pay and lose no sleep over it. I would agree that they willingly took advantage of Ohtani’s desire to win. If they do not now go out and fill the roster with a whole bunch more talent around him I would be pretty hacked off if I were a Dodgers fan.
 

I kinda think they are going to go all-in though on this and spend whatever it takes to best position themselves to win. Again though the caveat is that you can win a ton of games in baseball’s regular season and then see a team like Arizona catch fire at the right time and ruin your whole season. I am certain this will probably happen to LA several times over the next decade.

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 54335

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

we can basically look backward at the angels as the test case.  how much marginal interest did they gain getting his popularity, but not winning?  they've been the same shit team since 2016, one time 2nd in the west but still sub .500 even then.  ohtani has been a part of it since 2018.  attendance isn't any better with him.  worse the last few years.

 

Year Tm Lg W L Finish Playoffs Attendance Attend/G Rank Est. Payroll PPF BPF Stadium
2023 Los Angeles Angels AL West 73 89 4   2,640,575 32,600 6th of 15 $218,537,055 104 104 Angel Stadium of Anaheim
2022 Los Angeles Angels AL West 73 89 3   2,457,461 30,339 5th of 15 $167,063,095 103 103 Angel Stadium of Anaheim
2021 Los Angeles Angels AL West 77 85 4   1,515,689 18,484 6th of 15 $188,408,595 103 103 Angel Stadium of Anaheim
2020 Los Angeles Angels AL West 26 34 4       8th of 15 $181,254,762 102 101 Angel Stadium of Anaheim
2019 Los Angeles Angels AL West 72 90 4   3,023,012 37,321 2nd of 15 $158,078,584 100 100 Angel Stadium of Anaheim
2018 Los Angeles Angels AL West 80 82 4   3,020,216 37,287 2nd of 15 $166,849,666 98 98 Angel Stadium of Anaheim
2017 Los Angeles Angels AL West 80 82 2   3,019,585 37,279 3rd of 15 $181,125,500 97 97 Angel Stadium of Anaheim
2016 Los Angeles Angels AL West 74 88 4   3,016,142 37,236 3rd of 15 $139,712,000 95 95 Angel Stadium of Anaheim
2015 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim AL West 85 77 3   3,012,765 37,195 2nd of 15 $131,522,500 94 94 Angel Stadium of Anaheim
2014 Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim AL West 98 64 1 Lost ALDS (3-0) 3,095,935 38,221 2nd of 15 $128,667,000 94 95 Angel Stadium of Anaheim

Gosh, it almost looks like something else happened between 2019 and 2021 that may have adversely affected attendance, but I just can't put my finger on it.

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11669

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

Gosh, it almost looks like something else happened between 2019 and 2021 that may have adversely affected attendance, but I just can't put my finger on it.

quick check shows you don't really see residual covid effects going to now elsewhere, it doesn't seem.  2023 = pre covid attendance.

 

2023 Detroit Tigers AL Central 162 78 84 0 .481 .449 2nd of 5 9.0   661 740 1,612,876 27.4 27.7 51 32 E.Rodriguez (3.5) A.Hinch (78-84)
2022 Detroit Tigers AL Central 162 66 96 0 .407 .389 4th of 5 26.0   557 713 1,575,544 27.9 27.5 53 33 J.Báez (2.6) A.Hinch (66-96)
2021 Detroit Tigers AL Central 162 77 85 0 .475 .463 3rd of 5 16.0   697 756 1,102,621 28.1 27.3 49 29 J.Candelario (3.7) A.Hinch (77-85)
2020 Detroit Tigers AL Central 58 23 35 0 .397 .390 5th of 5 12.0   249 318   27.6 26.6 45 23 J.Candelario (2.0) R.Gardenhire (21-29) and L.McClendon (2-6)
2019 Detroit Tigers AL Central 161 47 114 0 .292 .304 5th of 5 53.5   582 915 1,501,430 27.6 27.8 53 32 M.Boyd (3.8) R.Gardenhire (47-114)
2018 Detroit Tigers AL Central 162 64 98 0 .395 .395 3rd of 5 27.0   630 796 1,856,970 27.9 28.6 49 27 M.Fiers (3.5) R.Gardenhire (64-98)
2017 Detroit Tigers AL Central 162 64 98 0 .395 .411 5th of 5 38.0   735 894 2,321,599 29.6 28.3 49 29 J.Upton (5.2) B.Ausmus (64-98)
2016 Detroit Tigers AL Central 161 86 75 0 .534 .518 2nd of 5 8.0   750 721 2,493,859 30.0 29.0 44 23 J.Verlander (7.4) B.Ausmus (86-75)

 

2023 Los Angeles Dodgers NL West 162 100 62 0 .617 .616 1st of 5 -- Lost NLDS (3-0) 906 699 3,837,079 30.9 28.1 58 39 M.Betts (8.3) D.Roberts (100-62)
2022 Los Angeles Dodgers NL West 162 111 51 0 .685 .715 1st of 5 -- Lost NLDS (3-1) 847 513 3,861,408 29.6 28.8 51 31 M.Betts (6.4) D.Roberts (111-51)
2021 Los Angeles Dodgers NL West 162 106 56 0 .654 .672 2nd of 5 1.0 Lost NLCS (4-2) 830 561 2,804,693 29.2 28.8 61 39 W.Buehler (7.1) D.Roberts (106-56)
2020 Los Angeles Dodgers NL West 60 43 17 0 .717 .712 1st of 5 -- Won WS (4-2) 349 213   28.0 27.6 38 21 M.Betts (3.6) D.Roberts (43-17)
2019 Los Angeles Dodgers NL West 162 106 56 0 .654 .662 1st of 5 -- Lost NLDS (3-2) 886 613 3,974,309 27.9 28.9 46 26 C.Bellinger (8.6) D.Roberts (106-56)
2018 Los Angeles Dodgers NL West 163 92 71 0 .564 .624 1st of 5 -- Lost WS (4-1) 804 610 3,857,500 28.1 29.2 52 31 J.Turner (4.7) D.Roberts (92-71)
2017 Los Angeles Dodgers NL West 162 104 58 0 .642 .627 1st of 5 -- Lost WS (4-3) 770 580 3,765,856 27.9 29.7 52 26 J.Turner (5.6) D.Roberts (104-58)
2016 Los Angeles Dodgers NL West 162 91 71 0 .562 .558 1st of 5 -- Lost NLCS (4-2) 725 638 3,703,312 28.9 28.9 55 31 C.Kershaw (6.1) D.Roberts (91-71)
2015 Los Angeles Dodgers NL West 162 92 70 0 .568 .552 1st of 5 -- Lost NLDS (3-2) 667 595 3,764,815 29.5 28.1 55 31 Z.Greinke (9.5) D.Mattingly (92-70)

 

Year Tm Lg G W L Ties W-L% pythW-L% Finish GB Playoffs R RA Attendance BatAge PAge #Bat #P Top Player Managers
2023 Seattle Mariners AL West 162 88 74 0 .543 .564 3rd of 5 2.0   758 659 2,690,418 27.8 27.4 56 35 J.Rodríguez (5.3) S.Servais (88-74)
2022 Seattle Mariners AL West 162 90 72 0 .556 .547 2nd of 5 16.0 Lost ALDS (3-0) 690 623 2,287,267 27.6 27.9 59 29 J.Rodríguez (6.2) S.Servais (90-72)
2021 Seattle Mariners AL West 162 90 72 0 .556 .468 2nd of 5 5.0   697 748 1,215,985 27.0 28.0 63 38 T.France (4.4) S.Servais (90-72)
2020 Seattle Mariners AL West 60 27 33 0 .450 .420 3rd of 5 9.0   254 303   26.7 26.6 49 29 D.Moore (1.7) S.Servais (27-33)
2019 Seattle Mariners AL West 162 68 94 0 .420 .426 5th of 5 39.0   758 893 1,791,109 27.8 28.6 67 42 K.Seager (3.2) S.Servais (68-94)
2018 Seattle Mariners AL West 162 89 73 0 .549 .478 3rd of 5 14.0   677 711 2,299,489 29.8 29.0 53 32 M.Haniger (6.5) S.Servais (89-73)
2017 Seattle Mariners AL West 162 78 84 0 .481 .487 3rd of 5 23.0   750 772 2,135,445 29.6 27.9 61 40 N.Cruz (4.3) S.Servais (78-84)
2016 Seattle Mariners AL West 162 86 76 0 .531 .538 2nd of 5 9.0   768 707 2,267,928 30.5 28.8 54 32 R.Canó (7.3) S.Servais (86-76)
2015 Seattle Mariners AL West 162 76 86 0 .469 .454 4th of 5 12.0   656 726 2,193,581 28.6 28.6 51 28 K.Seager (5.4) L.McClendon (76-86)
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Pam Cummings

Pam Cummings 9647

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Sbbruin said:

Baseball is one sport where teams are definitely NOT operating on even footing.  The "haves" have always had the upper hand.

Baseball has always fascinated me with it's randomness. You would think a salary cap would be necessary to create competitive balance. But then you have the Astros, Rangers, Royals, Nationals, Braves winning it all recently. And the draft is way different too where nobody that gets drafted is expected to actually play with the big league team when they start.

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52545

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Pam Cummings said:

Baseball has always fascinated me with it's randomness. You would think a salary cap would be necessary to create competitive balance. But then you have the Astros, Rangers, Royals, Nationals, Braves winning it all recently. And the draft is way different too where nobody that gets drafted is expected to actually play with the big league team when they start.

There’s probably something there that’s related to not being allowed to trade draft picks, so bad teams get high picks and have to use them.  Since all minor leaguers are cheap annually and all major leaguers get about the same until arbitration, you can use a few terrible years to build a pipeline that hits the big leagues at roughly the same time and gives you a window to win. 
 

of course baseball also not only allows high school grads to be selected, but teams like to do so in order to teach them without a college program middling first. But with that brings a much wider curve of prospects that end up performing to their draft number. 

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Blotto

Blotto 23560

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Posted

https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/39104627/shohei-ohtani-contract-dodgers-deferrals-free-agency

Quote

On Monday, the number that actually matters was invoked -- the present-day value of Ohtani's contract, as assessed within the calculus of the CBA rules, is a little less than two-thirds of $700 million, or about $461 million. This is the number -- the CBT number, as it is commonly referred to by front office types and agents -- that is used within baseball's accounting. According to researcher Sarah Langs of MLB.com, these are the top 10 contracts, in total CBT value, in MLB history:

1, Ohtani $460,814,765
2, Mike Trout $426,500,000
3, Aaron Judge $360,000,000
4, Manny Machado $350,000,000
5, Francisco Lindor $341,000,000
6, Fernando Tatis $340,000,000
7, Bryce Harper $330,000,000
T8, Giancarlo Stanton $325,000,000
T8, Corey Seager $325,000,000
10, Gerrit Cole $324,000,000

Because of the tidal wave of erroneous reporting in the Ohtani negotiation -- from last Friday's tracking of a flight that wasn't carrying Ohtani to the reports that he was headed to the Blue Jays -- on top of the usual winter market disinformation, there is a lot of industry skepticism about some of the reports attached to his deal.

For example: The notion that Ohtani deferred salary to give the Dodgers' financial flexibility. Ohtani will be making $2 million annually in the 10 years of his contract, and as the theory goes, this will give the Dodgers more money to spend on, say, starting pitching. But the math is more daunting than that for the Dodgers, in the luxury tax accounting, because the team will be assessed the average annual value of Ohtani's contract, way more than $2 million.

Ohtani's CBT number -- based on the present value of the contract, using current national interest rates -- is still the highest for any player in the sport, and almost 20% of the room under the 2024 tax threshold of $237 million.

"It's still a CBT hit of $46.1 million," one agent said. "If he had done a deal without deferrals -- say, 10 years, $550 million, straight up -- then his CBT number would have been $55 million. The difference of what, one relief pitcher? One Joe Kelly? It's not like the deferred money gives the Dodgers a lot of flexibility to deal with the luxury tax."

All of which, again, begs the question of the point of making this all so complicated.

Back in August, when the Angels announced that Ohtani had suffered an arm injury, one agent acknowledged that the bidding for the two-way star would be affected because of the uncertainty about when he would pitch again, and offered an educated guess about where the winning contract number would fall.

"You start with the Judge contract, right?" said the agent, saying that Ohtani's offensive production would be valued in the range of Aaron Judge's $360 million deal with the Yankees. "Then on the pitching side of it... you factor in the risk for someone coming off a second major elbow injury, his potential if he's healthy."

The agent paused. "You give him another $100 million -- $460 million."

Which is precisely where the Dodgers' bid landed, after being washed through baseball's accounting -- about $460 million. Not $500 million. Not $600 million. Not close to $700 million.

Still the biggest contract in baseball history.

 

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