What does college football look like in 20 years?

[Guest]

With the conference realignment, the opening up of NIL, and the ease of transfers, the game is completely different than it was a decade ago:

It's obvious that we are just at the start of this new era of football where conferences can be across the nation, players are making millions in college, and "school pride" takes a backseat to doing what's the absolute best for your current earnings and potentially making it to the league.

So what does the game look like in another 20 years? 

[tx 3 putt 76349]

Players are going to unionize 

[Valmy77 13094]

1 minute ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

So what does the game look like in another 20 years? 

I am curious if the end game is two forty school super leagues or four 20 school super leagues.

But I feel like the playoff gives the ACC and Big 12 a good chance to survive as viable second tier leagues. 

Otherwise I think things will become more and more professionalized. I do wonder if players will eventually start signing contracts to play for a school for a certain amount of time to prevent all the transfers.

[Valmy77 13094]

3 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Players are going to unionize 

That would be interesting. Would there be separate Big 10 and SEC Unions? Or a Big 10/Big 12/ACC/SEC Union? Or an all of FBS Union? The latter would be kind of wild considering the huge differences between a player at, say, Fresno State vs Georgia.

Edited December 15, 2023 by Valmy77

[TwiceHorn 31269]

Something out of Idiocracy and Robocop (and probably Rollerball) at the current rate.

[Neonmoon 38127]

2 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Something out of Idiocracy and Robocop (and probably Rollerball) at the current rate.

Fox got you covered 

 

Edited December 15, 2023 by Neonmoon

[orange dream 1241]

9 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

I am curious if the end game is two forty school super leagues or four 20 school super leagues.

But I feel like the playoff gives the ACC and Big 12 a good chance to survive as viable second tier leagues. 

Otherwise I think things will become more and more professionalized. I do wonder if players will eventually start signing contracts to play for a school for a certain amount of time to prevent all the transfers.

I lean toward four 20 team leagues is probably where things settle. (2 auto bids to the playoff for each and 4 at-large based on committee selection (seeding also set by committee)

Agree that a contract between player and school is probably coming in an attempt to slow down the transfer whirlwind.

[JBJ 3649]

Football is going to become like the Olympic sports where less than 10 schools actually have the resources to field a nationally competitive team ever.

[South Austin 52141]

Lasers from the players’ foreheads.

[TexArcher 37508]

Everything that's happened over the last several years has been moving toward two superconferences.  Why would things suddenly start shifting toward four conferences?  Does anyone really think the SEC or Big 10 will allow themselves to be cleaved in half?

I think we'll end up with two conferences of 24 to 28 teams, max.  

And the rest of college football will be for local bragging rights.  

I think there will be more parity in recruiting among the top 25 or so teams than we've seen recently.  And everyone who isn't in the two superconferences will turn into absolute garbage football programs, because they won't be able to recruit for shit.  I can't wait to watch it happen.

[Jkwellborn 6653]

Players are going to unionize 

lol. That will be some crazy shit. They gonna have local reps by state, school, conference? Also, if you think it’s fucked now, wait and see what it’s like if that happens.

[PilotsError 2281]

I predict the conferences are still acting as competitors and not collaborators.  

[TreatyOak 16150]

[Your Mom 4796]

The NFL.

[Valmy77 13094]

10 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

Everything that's happened over the last several years has been moving toward two superconferences.  Why would things suddenly start shifting toward four conferences? 

The playoff. Top 6 ranked conference champs get autobids. 

[NeverMarryAStripper 21781]

I predict that we will see a head coach/AD move the entire football program to a new school that promises to build a new stadium

[Wally Fairway 5521]

OU will still suck
Bob Stoops will live in a memory care unit , with his bag of dicks

[ATXhorn17 1610]

Honestly, players at the major programs should receive a cut of the school's TV revenue instead of NIL donations from private sources... I doubt big money donors have the stamina to keep up the endless stream of NIL contributions. And asking the average fan to fund the roster's payroll is absurd when the program makes 100s of millions a year. 

[Vertigo 20266]

[66BUFF 2553]

1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

Something out of Idiocracy and Robocop (and probably Rollerball) at the current rate.

[LateAughtsHorn 588]

Texas has 10 national championships. 

[TexArcher 37508]

46 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

The playoff. Top 6 ranked conference champs get autobids. 

Obviously, I'm predicting that won't be the case in 20 years.

There are going to be a bunch more UGA/TCU looking scores in the playoff.  And every conference that isn't the Big 10 or SEC is going to see its recruiting drop off in a big way.  In 5 years, it'll be 2 ultra power conferences and a bunch of Conference USA's.  The playoff qualifications will get changed at some point between then and 20 years out, because of the farce it will be to have 4 shit conference champions in the playoff when everybody knows they couldn't beat anybody in the top half of the two superconferences.

This is a guess, obv, but that's all any of us is doing.  Everything that's happened and is happening points to 2 superconferences, and an even bigger gulf between them and the others than we'll start with next year.

Edited December 15, 2023 by TexArcher

[bschoolprof 6232]

SEC and Big 10 combine (for football only) and negotiate as one unit for a TV deal, spread out over multiple networks.  They each form smaller, regional-based divisions where everyone plays each other, the winners of which get automatic playoff spots.  There are of course wild cards for the best records among the non-division winners. Conference championships are eliminated. Playoffs are only among Big 10 and SEC schools. Who gives a fuck about the smaller shitty schools?  They can go do their own thing.  Basically, everything is structured like the NFL, NBA, MLB, etc, which is what we are heading toward anyway.  

This is probably not what will happen, but what should happen given that there is no putting the toothpaste back in the tube with paying players and free agency.  Multiple mega conferences make no sense in this setup, and only serve as negotiating vehicles for TV money.  Why not just combine into one league and hold playoffs.  The NCAA and shit schools can get fucked.  

[89Horn 1492]

Flying cars.  Hoverboard skateboards.  Teleportation.  Texas defense linemen still being held with no calls.  The weather can be controlled.  Aggy going on their sixth head coach since Jimbo’s firing.  Three ex coaches still on the payroll.  Oddly, New Mexico State has become a powerhouse football school due to aggy making a silly mistake in AI programming that transformed the wrong aggy football team.

['stache 21770]

56 minutes ago, PilotsError said:

I predict the conferences are still acting as competitors and not collaborators.  

This is what drives me crazy. When the PAC collapsed and Stanford/Cal joined the ACC, it should have rang an alarm that this is getting absurd, time to regroup and figure out a better system. But here we are, just nonsense. I think in ten years the top 20 bluebloods will form a league to drop the Big 10 and SEC LEECHES!! from their ranks so that every team makes eleventy billion dollars. I also think that if people act rationally, football will be separated entirely so that the rest of the sports can realign along sane geographic lines. 

[Bottlecap 1522]

Promotion/Relegation

[TexArcher 37508]

1 minute ago, Bottlecap said:

Promotion/Relegation

I would really love to see this.  It makes European soccer leagues fascinating to the last day for most teams.

Plus, I want to see Looch try to spin aggy getting relegated.

[LateAughtsHorn 588]

5 minutes ago, 89Horn said:

  Oddly, New Mexico State has become a powerhouse football school due to aggy making a silly mistake in AI programming that transformed the wrong aggy football team.

Well done. 

[Zeus 5949]

6 minutes ago, Bottlecap said:

Promotion/Relegation

That would be sweet but we wouldn’t get to play aggy anymore

[89Horn 1492]

1 minute ago, Bottlecap said:

Promotion/Relegation

West Ham United bizarrely wins at least two national championships.  Northwestern and LSU (in a freakishly bad 2028 season) get relegated to the Dutch second division.  LSU comes close to being promoted back up just three times in that 20 year timespan.  But, then decides to focus on baseball.

[Born Burnt 6147]

[Deej 76560]

2 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

Something out of Idiocracy and Robocop (and probably Rollerball) at the current rate.

 

[mdleast 8261]

[59 Burst 434]

The minute football players are officially recognized as employees and the universities are recognized as employers the sport as we know it dies.

I can just imagine wage and hour showing up at the local university. 

[JBJ 3649]

49 minutes ago, 'stache said:

This is what drives me crazy. When the PAC collapsed and Stanford/Cal joined the ACC, it should have rang an alarm that this is getting absurd, time to regroup and figure out a better system. But here we are, just nonsense. I think in ten years the top 20 bluebloods will form a league to drop the Big 10 and SEC LEECHES!! from their ranks so that every team makes eleventy billion dollars. I also think that if people act rationally, football will be separated entirely so that the rest of the sports can realign along sane geographic lines. 

The players and schools that stand to lose most from collaboration are the only ones with the power to actually organize.  And the next tier down all thinks they'll be the ones riding the coattails to easy money.  That's why a player's union or a more united league structure won't happen anytime soon.

[Degenerate Gardner 4081]

Fields will be measured in meters and Cam Rising will be an elderly senior.

[Bama Llama 1447]

Fuck if I know, but one might speculate based on changes and the rate of change since December, 2003:

2003 - 5 apparently set and stable power conferences; champion determined by polls; no legit NIL; no portal.

2023 - Pac “10” kaput; ACC on life support; P “3” alive and well for now; next year 12-team playoff; NIL evolving daily; lubed portal orgasms.

2043 - two 40-team super conferences aligned with air hubs DFW and O’Hare; 24-team playoff; pooled NIL with nationwide player salaries + scoring, sack, pancake and turnover bounties; in-game transfers to opponents or any other team allowed.

Well, shit.

[Hornius Emeritus 12419]

[Horn Dogg 3808]

Texas will have 24 national championships.  Sark will add a pimp cane to his swagger suit for the OU game to help him walk.  OU will still suck and aggy will still be taking about 1939 glory (hole):

[Rockethorn1978 6061]

As long as they don’t have a Cap I’m good. Let the big dogs eat and let the poors cry about it.

[Vic Mackey 46934]

Bo Nix will still be playing somehow.

[tx 3 putt 76349]

6 minutes ago, Rockethorn1978 said:

As long as they don’t have a Cap I’m good. Let the big dogs eat and let the poors cry about it.

A cap is coming

[TOR 5364]

[Pescado_Rojo 19331]

1 minute ago, tx 3 putt said:

A cap is coming

How? The schools themselves aren't paying beyond the scholarship and "full cost of tuition". NIL collectives are associated with the school, but they're playing for a players name, image, and likeness, not paying them to play sports....Like an NFL player getting endorsements that technically have nothing to do with their team contract. 

Two things I think will have to happen long term are changes to the transfer rules, and changes in NIL contracts to multi-year. We've gone guardrail to guardrail with transfer rules. I'd be in favor of something like 1 "free" transfer, then you have to sit out a year if you transfer a second time. Maybe a waiver if the head coach gets fired or something, but this model of kids looking to transfer every season for a better NIL deal are unsustainable. Then maybe put buyouts in multi-year NIL deals. If you want to transfer to play QB at Auburn, Auburn NIL has to pay your buyout to Georgia's NIL collective or whatever.  

[tx 3 putt 76349]

12 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

How? The schools themselves aren't paying beyond the scholarship and "full cost of tuition". NIL collectives are associated with the school, but they're playing for a players name, image, and likeness, not paying them to play sports....Like an NFL player getting endorsements that technically have nothing to do with their team contract. 

Two things I think will have to happen long term are changes to the transfer rules, and changes in NIL contracts to multi-year. We've gone guardrail to guardrail with transfer rules. I'd be in favor of something like 1 "free" transfer, then you have to sit out a year if you transfer a second time. Maybe a waiver if the head coach gets fired or something, but this model of kids looking to transfer every season for a better NIL deal are unsustainable. Then maybe put buyouts in multi-year NIL deals. If you want to transfer to play QB at Auburn, Auburn NIL has to pay your buyout to Georgia's NIL collective or whatever.  

just nuke it all. Force the nfl to start a minor league 

[Ignatius 4001]

It’ll look the same as it does now - a bunch of old dudes bitching about how all the players now are fucking pussies compared to the tough old guys and how the music in the stadium is shitty and too loud.

And people will still watch/attend every week…

[pyrohornIII 4809]

I'm thinking that most of the portal and NIL issues will be regulated in some way by the end of this decade.  

I also see violence in the sport and resulting injuries will probably do more to change the game than anything.   

There will be different levels that play different versions of the game, where the mid to lower tier play something akin to 7 on 7, and the upper tier will play full contact to feed the NFL machine.

Also climate will play a hand in scheduling, or at the very least push those high tier teams to either play games at night on in domes.  No more 11 AM or 2:30 games in August/September at least.  

[atomheartbevo 89416]

12 minutes ago, pyrohornIII said:

I also see violence in the sport and resulting injuries will probably do more to change the game than anything.   

I’m surprised this is being left out.  I know plenty of people who are football fans but wouldn’t let their kids play, unlike in the past.  

Assuming we get more CTE info, things could take a turn.

[dcar00 14035]

playing school has largely become secondary.  Universities are now just trying to make sure that they remain the NFL's "minor league/D-League". Which the NFL likes also fortunately for them.

In theory, based on the actual university mission, they'd let a minor league happen naturally with high school kids and then you'd have a team full of unlikely NFL prospects playing 4 years and getting a degree.  Yes the football would be FCS level at best but eventually you'd still be cheering for the Longhorns to win the College Football National Championship.

[ousux 5586]

NFL lite, even moreso than today. Having said that, it will still be a unique product compared to the NFL and superior in every way.

Having said that, not looking that far down the road, just enjoying this fantastic season. Volleyball is kicking ass as usual and I don't even care! In years past that would be the brightest spot of this time of year, but I think those days are over!