What does college football look like in 20 years?

[USC_TMB 405]

I just read an article which reports that California is considering banning tackle football for youths 12 and under. The bill is still in the debate stage, and a similar bill failed previously. If (and that’s a huge if) the bill passes, it would take effect in 2026. Does that open the door for banning high school football? Who knows, it is California.

California’s recruiting prospects have fallen the past few years, and this won’t help that. As it is, high schools are limited to 2 contact practices a week and no contact practices during the off season. If California players are considered “soft”, lack of tackling practice is the reason.

20 years down the road, there may only be a handful of states which still allow contact football.  How that impacts college football is unknown. Does it become strictly a “development league” for the NFL with a licensing deal for a few marquee schools? I wish I knew so I could lay money in Vegas.

[tx 3 putt 76895]

No reason for competitive tackle football 12 and under  

[DixonHur 11296]

14 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

College Football should just become the NFL's official developmental league.  

NIL would go away, and schools would have a salary cap and pay the players directly.  Conferences would be based on salary caps of the schools.

Same eligibility rules that exist today (i.e. you can't play at the college level forever), but players are not required to attend classes.  Scholarships would still be awarded, but they could choose to attend school during or after their playing days are over...or not at all.

 

['stache 21801]

3 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

No reason for competitive tackle football 12 and under  

This. I think curve balls are also banned in some places through a certain age. There’s time to develop those skills when older with far less risk.

[Jkwellborn 6697]

[/url]  

He’s an idiot. Sounds like he’s trying to play to the recruits that are real dumb asses.

[tx 3 putt 76895]

RiP college athletics as we know it …..

 

[Guest]

18 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

RiP college athletics as we know it …..

That happened in the first round of major conference realignment. When USC/UCLA jumped to the Big 10, it was over.

[tx 3 putt 76895]

1 minute ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

That happened in the first round of major conference realignment. When USC/UCLA jumped to the Big 10, it was over.

they need to hire mlb union reps. they'll crush the ncaa and the big schools raking in BIG cash 

[Texzilla58 4732]

Like anything, technology and costs will dictate where things go. In 20 years football will be played by AI players that are controlled by a “coach”. No injuries, don’t have to be paid money or pussy, don’t have to make grades.

[tx 3 putt 76895]

Just now, Texzilla58 said:

Like anything, technology and costs will dictate where things go. In 20 years football will be played by AI players that are controlled by a “coach”. No injuries, don’t have to be paid money or pussy, don’t have to make grades.

 

[CooterBrown 18005]

Public employees in Texas can’t unionize. Dunno how that affects anything when whores, blow, and Lambos are already flowing freely.

[59 Burst 434]

6 hours ago, CooterBrown said:

Public employees in Texas can’t unionize. Dunno how that affects anything when whores, blow, and Lambos are already flowing freely.

One can only speculate, but involving Wage and Hour with their oversight is probably going to be an issue at some point. Throw in players having a voice in travel, practice time, overtime, etc. Add in right to work states and those nuances, and yeah it is going to look much different very soon. 
On the other hand. Can you imagine a situation where the department of labor subpoenas Georgia over something similar to the car wreck scandal? All communications from cell phones, computers, will come out during discovery. It will be interesting. 

[BurntEyes 5963]

I'm sure I'll be negged for saying this, but I accurately called the current playoff and how it would come to pass 20+ years ago. The writing was on the wall and if anyone was honest with themselves it was pretty easy to see coming. 

In 20 years I think the easiest thing to predict is there will be a LOT fewer universities playing. I think the NCAA will be gone. I think some states, including universities will have opted out of football completely. 

I think the landscape will be greatly compressed and there will essentially be one tier. It will be the playoff tier and much more limited number of universities playing will be in that division of college football. I'm guessing the west coast will largely be out of the college game, the northeast very limited and most of the teams with be in the Midwest and Southeast. You'll have some outliers like maybe Arizona, Utah, and some teams in the Mid-Atlantic regions too. 

I think there will be NIL caps of some sort, and there might even be an opt out for classes. Those that are on scholarship don't get that option, neither do walk on players, but fully NIL funded players don't have to attend class if they dont want to. They will hopefully be encouraged to, but not required. Essentially, more of a real minor league for the NFL with NIL funding the bulk of it. 

Then again, while I called the playoffs, there were a lot of things I didn't see happening. So, wtf do I know.

Edited February 6 by BurntEyes

[Snake Diggity 4621]

1 hour ago, BurntEyes said:

I'm sure I'll be negged for saying this, but I accurately called the current playoff and how it would come to pass 20+ years ago. The writing was on the wall and if anyone was honest with themselves it was pretty easy to see coming. 

In 20 years I think the easiest thing to predict is there will be a LOT fewer universities playing. I think the NCAA will be gone. I think some states, including universities will have opted out of football completely. 

I think the landscape will be greatly compressed and there will essentially be one tier. It will be the playoff tier and much more limited number of universities playing will be in that division of college football. I'm guessing the west coast will largely be out of the college game, the northeast very limited and most of the teams with be in the Midwest and Southeast. You'll have some outliers like maybe Arizona, Utah, and some teams in the Mid-Atlantic regions too. 

I think there will be NIL caps of some sort, and there might even be an opt out for classes. Those that are on scholarship don't get that option, neither do walk on players, but fully NIL funded players don't have to attend class if they dont want to. They will hopefully be encouraged to, but not required. Essentially, more of a real minor league for the NFL with NIL funding the bulk of it. 

Then again, while I called the playoffs, there were a lot of things I didn't see happening. So, wtf do I know.

I agree with just about all of this.  I think there will be 2 main drivers that reduce the number of schools who play: money and injuries.  Schools on the coasts will opt out because football is dangerous; they may try to start playing with much different rules that dramatically reduce injury risk, but I don’t see how that will appeal to enough people to generate the same money.  I half expect soccer to take hold as the main sport in those areas.  Smaller schools will be forced out because they won’t be making money; some of those schools may field teams that play at a lower level with unpaid players, similar to the old days.  
 

To your point about the ability to opt out of classes, I don’t think that will be necessary; I think there will be degree plans made up that allow athletes to get credit for all the training activities they already do and will let them out of attending lower level coursework where they have to mingle with all the other students.  Those degree plans are pretty much already in place, I think they will just be taken the rest of the way such that all these guys have to do is practice and play football.

I do think the NFL’s popularity will be a leading indicator for college football.  As long as the NFL remains popular, there will be enough demand to keep the 30-60 most viable schools going.

[BurntEyes 5963]

28 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I agree with just about all of this.  I think there will be 2 main drivers that reduce the number of schools who play: money and injuries.  Schools on the coasts will opt out because football is dangerous; they may try to start playing with much different rules that dramatically reduce injury risk, but I don’t see how that will appeal to enough people to generate the same money.  I half expect soccer to take hold as the main sport in those areas.  Smaller schools will be forced out because they won’t be making money; some of those schools may field teams that play at a lower level with unpaid players, similar to the old days.  
 

To your point about the ability to opt out of classes, I don’t think that will be necessary; I think there will be degree plans made up that allow athletes to get credit for all the training activities they already do and will let them out of attending lower level coursework where they have to mingle with all the other students.  Those degree plans are pretty much already in place, I think they will just be taken the rest of the way such that all these guys have to do is practice and play football.

I do think the NFL’s popularity will be a leading indicator for college football.  As long as the NFL remains popular, there will be enough demand to keep the 30-60 most viable schools going.

That's a good point about classes. I think, well, hope, perhaps they'll have a different track all together. What would actually serve the universities and athletes the most is a pro-sports track.

How to select a agent, what a good contract looks like, managing social media, off field activities to increase your pro value and oned to avoid, making investments,, avoiding bad investments (family and snake oil salesmen mainly), restaurants are a bad business, dealing with sports marketing and TV, public speaking, etc. 

[ousux 5597]

40 or so top programs are the only ones still relevant and running their own league, everyone else just fighting to keep their head above water. /Thread

:spoiler: The University of Texas is in the former group. aggy is in due to their geographical location and spending like drunken sailors in a sheep whorehouse, no other reason.

[tx 3 putt 76895]

3 hours ago, BurntEyes said:

I'm sure I'll be negged for saying this, but I accurately called the current playoff and how it would come to pass 20+ years ago. The writing was on the wall and if anyone was honest with themselves it was pretty easy to see coming. 

In 20 years I think the easiest thing to predict is there will be a LOT fewer universities playing. I think the NCAA will be gone. I think some states, including universities will have opted out of football completely. 

I think the landscape will be greatly compressed and there will essentially be one tier. It will be the playoff tier and much more limited number of universities playing will be in that division of college football. I'm guessing the west coast will largely be out of the college game, the northeast very limited and most of the teams with be in the Midwest and Southeast. You'll have some outliers like maybe Arizona, Utah, and some teams in the Mid-Atlantic regions too. 

I think there will be NIL caps of some sort, and there might even be an opt out for classes. Those that are on scholarship don't get that option, neither do walk on players, but fully NIL funded players don't have to attend class if they dont want to. They will hopefully be encouraged to, but not required. Essentially, more of a real minor league for the NFL with NIL funding the bulk of it. 

Then again, while I called the playoffs, there were a lot of things I didn't see happening. So, wtf do I know.

[Stanley 42]

NIL, the transfer portal, meaningless OOC games, and meaningless bowl games have ruined college football. College football will continue sucking shit through a straw for the next 20 years. The NFL is a superior product in every way. 

[PittsburghTiger 6177]

 

[Bevo 13575]

I'm thinking in 20 years college football will be something like:

 

 

 

And I'm okay with that.

[ChickenSandwich 9831]

“While there is some factual dispute as to how much revenue is generated by the men’s basketball program, and whether that program is profitable, the profitability of any given business does not affect the employee status of the individuals who perform work for that business,” she wrote. “The basketball program clearly generates alumni engagement — and financial donations — as well as publicity which leads to student interest and applications.”

Dartmouth men’s basketball players are employees, can unionize, NLRB regional director rules - The Athletic

This is just incredibly naive and will lead to most sports becoming club sports at the college level. 

Edited February 6 by ChickenSandwich

[Jkwellborn 6697]

 

Sounds like schools are gonna start having a ton of salary employees.

[PittsburghTiger 6177]

33 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

“While there is some factual dispute as to how much revenue is generated by the men’s basketball program, and whether that program is profitable, the profitability of any given business does not affect the employee status of the individuals who perform work for that business,” she wrote. “The basketball program clearly generates alumni engagement — and financial donations — as well as publicity which leads to student interest and applications.”

Dartmouth men’s basketball players are employees, can unionize, NLRB regional director rules - The Athletic

This is just incredibly naive and will lead to most sports becoming club sports at the college level. 

 

22 minutes ago, Jkwellborn said:

Sounds like schools are gonna start having a ton of salary employees.

I think it was about five years ago when the Northwestern football players tried to start a union. It's going to be crazy.

[Vertigo 20276]

48 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

“While there is some factual dispute as to how much revenue is generated by the men’s basketball program, and whether that program is profitable, the profitability of any given business does not affect the employee status of the individuals who perform work for that business,” she wrote. “The basketball program clearly generates alumni engagement — and financial donations — as well as publicity which leads to student interest and applications.”

Dartmouth men’s basketball players are employees, can unionize, NLRB regional director rules - The Athletic

This is just incredibly naive and will lead to most sports becoming club sports at the college level. 

Who had it on their bingo card that Dartmouth would be the black swan of the NCAA?

[freyguy 4266]

All this is really fun to watch.  The power/money swing that is going on right now.  I love it.

[Horn of Gabriel 1614]

What is fucking Dartmouth playing with here?  Do their alumni give two shits about their basketball program?  Maybe they do...but they're an ivy right?  Their president should welcome the team to unionize if they want and then shut the thing down if they choose that path.  Decisions have consequences...turn mbb into a club level all-volunteer thing and make the issue moot.  What are they trying to get from unionization anyway, ivies don't even offer athletic scholarships?  Are the players looking to be on salary?  L-O-fucking-L if so.

[Jkwellborn 6697]

What is fucking Dartmouth playing with here?  Do their alumni give two shits about their basketball program?  Maybe they do...but they're an ivy right?  Their president should welcome the team to unionize if they want and then shut the thing down if they choose that path.  Decisions have consequences...turn mbb into a club level all-volunteer thing and make the issue moot.  What are they trying to get from unionization anyway, ivies don't even offer athletic scholarships?  Are the players looking to be on salary?  L-O-fucking-L if so.

I’m gonna go out on a limb and say most of the athletes that want to unionize don’t actually have the slightest idea of anything union related and just listen to the idiots at the local Starbucks talk about how everyone needs a union.

[tx 3 putt 76895]

2 hours ago, Stanley said:

NIL, the transfer portal, meaningless OOC games, and meaningless bowl games have ruined college football. College football will continue sucking shit through a straw for the next 20 years. The NFL is a superior product in every way. 

no one is making you watch ooc and the lesser bowl games. they’re very easy to avoid 

NiL has grown into a monster 

[Beau Vine 54210]

1 hour ago, Vertigo said:

Who had it on their bingo card that Dartmouth would be the black swan of the NCAA?

Shit, Colorado blew apart the Pac-12 so I'm not going to be surprised about this.

[Beau Vine 54210]

2 hours ago, ChickenSandwich said:

“While there is some factual dispute as to how much revenue is generated by the men’s basketball program, and whether that program is profitable, the profitability of any given business does not affect the employee status of the individuals who perform work for that business,” she wrote. “The basketball program clearly generates alumni engagement — and financial donations — as well as publicity which leads to student interest and applications.”

Dartmouth men’s basketball players are employees, can unionize, NLRB regional director rules - The Athletic

This is just incredibly naive and will lead to most sports becoming club sports at the college level. 

No it won't -- it only applies to private universities.

[Horn of Gabriel 1614]

Quote

 

Esteemed Dartmouth Students, Alumni, Academic Staff, and Administration:

Since 1769, Dartmouth has embodied excellence in all endeavors: academic, athletics, and societal.  We are proud of our accomplishments, including educating Samuel Ford McGill, the first African-American medical school graduate in 1839, performing the first clinical x-ray in the United States in 1896, and starting today's artificial intelligence revolution in 1956.  Our impacts echo through time as evidenced by our multiple Nobel prize winners in chemistry, physics, and other disciplines.  We believe in educating the whole person at Dartmouth, and providing opportunities for our students to expand their horizons inside the classroom, laboratory, board room or courtroom, and by encouraging competition in intercollegiate athletic programs.

You may have seen the recent news that the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) has declared the students on our men's basketball team to be employees of Dartmouth and eligible to form a union.  We disagree with this decision.  In our discussions with the NLRB, we outlined our position that intercollegiate sports at Dartmouth are an extension of the learning environment - not profit-seeking ventures as you may expect at a larger institution.  Like all ivy league institutions, Dartmouth does not offer athletic scholarships.  Scholarships are based solely on need and academic achievement.

Today, athletics at Dartmouth are revenue neutral.  In 2023, Dartmouth Athletics collected approximately thirty-five million dollars in revenue, with costs also approximately thirty-five million dollars.  These costs pay for coaches' salaries, facilities, travel, uniforms and more.  With the recent NLRB decision, we expect to be required to pay salary, benefits, and incur other overhead to comply with treating our men's basketball team as employees.  If this were a single team or a handful of students, we may be able to overcome this challenge. However, Title IX mandates equal treatment of all student athletes at Dartmouth.  This means that in short order we anticipate being required to bring rowing, softball, swimming & diving, and eventually all student athletes under the employee umbrella.

I have asked Athletic Director Mike Harrity to estimate the financial impacts these challenges will create for Dartmouth.  His team's analysis is, in a word, staggering: our costs to serve our student athletes will increase by at least 50% under the most conservative projections.  Unfortunately, there is no viable path to increasing athletic revenues by this amount under our current model, and our Board of Trustees has reaffirmed our longstanding policy that we will not subsidize athletics. 

For the reasons outlined here, I and the Board of Trustees have made the difficult to decision to focus Dartmouth's future on academics over athletics.  2024 will be the final year of Dartmouth's participation in NCAA Division I-FCS.  Starting in 2025, all teams will be converted to student-led, all volunteer club teams, and our athletic department will shift its focus to serving all students at Dartmouth by providing opportunity for healthy competition outside of the NCAA framework.

We understand that this change will feel abrupt, and that for many of you it may create an uncertain future.  All coaches and employees in our athletic department will be fully paid under their current contract terms.  Students who wish to transfer or explore opportunities elsewhere will receive our full support.

For over 250 years, the Dartmouth community has weathered change.  As we turn the page to our next chapter and look forward to the next 250 years, we appreciate your support.

Thank you and Go Big Green,

Sian Leah Beilock
President
Dartmouth College

 

 

[Beau Vine 54210]

30 minutes ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

 Like all ivy league institutions, Dartmouth does not offer athletic scholarships.  Scholarships are based solely on need and academic achievement.

[ousux 5597]

Shit, Colorado blew apart the Pac-12 so I'm not going to be surprised about this.

Colorado? USC and UCLA got the ball rolling, the Fightin' Primes just followed suit..but in a conference they can actually compete in.

[PittsburghTiger 6177]

Teams on campus will be cut.

[BurntEyes 5963]

2 hours ago, ousux said:

3 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

Shit, Colorado blew apart the Pac-12 so I'm not going to be surprised about this.

...the Fightin' Primes just followed suit..but in a conference they can actually compete in.

Um... no they won't.. and that's saying quiet a bit. (I know I know take it to the Prime Time Room)

[BurntEyes 5963]

6 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

Well dammit man, someone needs to live there. Look at all the Chicken Littles running around after my post.

Edited February 7 by BurntEyes

[BurntEyes 5963]

6 hours ago, Stanley said:

.. meaningless OOC games, and meaningless bowl games have ruined college football. College football will continue sucking shit through a straw for the next 20 years. The NFL is a superior product in every way. 

You do know that these have been around for a very long time.

And... the new structure is far more like the NFL than it was historically. Further, if you enjoy the NFL product, this new world will provide an easier track to following relevant teams and players in what you can simply consider the NFL minor league. Or... you know, go post on Cowboys.com

So... there's a tad bit of irony in your post.

[NAVY 6740]

Whatever happens, OU will suck 

[Steamboat1874 4055]

If I am still alive in 20 years, (I will be 89 then), my guess is when I turn on my TV's on Saturday and they kick-off, it will look just like it does now and it will still be glorius.

 

[BabaYaga 15290]

There will two power conferences left, akin to the AFC and NFC.  North vs south.  The SEC and BIG will grow and ingest more and more schools, tell the NCAA to take a flying fuck, and the table will be set.  Then you will have all the other schools doing their own thing similar to how the FCS is now, but with larger and formerly prestigious P5 schools left out and the only path to a title being joining one of the two larger conferences.  

[Horn of Gabriel 1614]

43 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

There will two power conferences left, akin to the AFC and NFC.  North vs south.  The SEC and BIG will grow and ingest more and more schools, tell the NCAA to take a flying fuck, and the table will be set.  Then you will have all the other schools doing their own thing similar to how the FCS is now, but with larger and formerly prestigious P5 schools left out and the only path to a title being joining one of the two larger conferences.  

Agree we are heading to the P2.  Disagree w/ the 2nd part about the only path for former P5 is to join the P2, because at some point soon the P2 economics on expansion won't make sense to grow larger.  I think it's more likely that after FSU, North Carolina, Clemson and Virginia are sorted out that we're done.  Then the shift will be the SEC/B1G will change the playoff to reserve 9-10 spots for themselves, leaving 2-3 for "everyone else" to maintain the facade of access and avoid anti-trust.

The final step will be the SEC and B1G syncing and then jointly negotiating their media deals, which is where the real money shows up.

[Jkwellborn 6697]

They’ll have some type of championship for the guys that aren’t in it. Like you said, it will be similar to fcs stuff.

[MonkeyDoughnut 10232]

20 hours ago, Horn of Gabriel said:

What is fucking Dartmouth playing with here?  Do their alumni give two shits about their basketball program?  Maybe they do...but they're an ivy right?  Their president should welcome the team to unionize if they want and then shut the thing down if they choose that path.  Decisions have consequences...turn mbb into a club level all-volunteer thing and make the issue moot.  What are they trying to get from unionization anyway, ivies don't even offer athletic scholarships?  Are the players looking to be on salary?  L-O-fucking-L if so.

Dartmouth band I assume is getting in line to be next?

[Ignatius 4017]

On 1/10/2024 at 4:08 PM, tx 3 putt said:

No reason for competitive tackle football 12 and under  

I would have vehemently disagreed with this into my early 30s but I would have been wrong….

[Ignatius 4017]

On 2/6/2024 at 1:00 PM, Stanley said:

and meaningless bowl games have ruined college football.

How does a bowl game that you don’t watch and don’t give a fuck about ‘ruin’ college football for you?

[Blotto 23496]

On 2/7/2024 at 10:27 AM, BabaYaga said:

There will two power conferences left, akin to the AFC and NFC.  North vs south.  The SEC and BIG will grow and ingest more and more schools, tell the NCAA to take a flying fuck, and the table will be set.  Then you will have all the other schools doing their own thing similar to how the FCS is now, but with larger and formerly prestigious P5 schools left out and the only path to a title being joining one of the two larger conferences.  

Because football (and the associated TV revenue) funds the vast majority of a university athletic dept's  operating budget, at universities left out of the mix gone are the days of swimming, golf, tennis etc... teams jetting around the country. 

The continued drive for more and more money will eventually choke out most college athletics as we're familiar with it. And it probably won't be a terrible thing either as the tail is wagging the dog at too many schools. 

[BurntEyes 5963]

On 2/7/2024 at 10:27 AM, BabaYaga said:

There will two power conferences left, akin to the AFC and NFC.  North vs south.  The SEC and BIG will grow and ingest more and more schools, tell the NCAA to take a flying fuck, and the table will be set.  Then you will have all the other schools doing their own thing similar to how the FCS is now, but with larger and formerly prestigious P5 schools left out and the only path to a title being joining one of the two larger conferences.  

Of all the things here, I'm pretty confident the NCAA will no longer exist or at least if it does exist it will have zero real power or influence. 

[pyrohornIII 4814]

On 2/5/2024 at 8:48 PM, CooterBrown said:

Public employees in Texas can’t unionize. Dunno how that affects anything when whores, blow, and Lambos are already flowing freely.

UNION F.A.Q. – TSEU-CWA 6186 (cwa-tseu.org)

 

[General Colt 121]

On 12/15/2023 at 5:10 PM, Born Burnt said:

Reminds me of Cyberball. I used to play the shit out of that game.

[Beau Vine 54210]

On 2/9/2024 at 8:42 PM, BurntEyes said:

Of all the things here, I'm pretty confident the NCAA will no longer exist or at least if it does exist it will have zero real power or influence. 

It will govern D2 and D3.