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What does college football look like in 20 years?

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SurlyORama

SurlyORama 164

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I can tell you that my interest in and love for college football is waning, and I don't see that stopping anytime soon. In 10 years not sure I will even be watching. Don't have much interest in the NFL, and it's heading down the same path for me.

In the VERY near future (if not already), it will just be the UAPFL - "University-Affiliated Professional Football League". 

While I don't begrudge the players trying to maximize their personal financial benefit, I just don't have interest in watching a bunch of mercenaries who are only at the school for that reason, playing for their third school in four years, etc. It's NFL, but worse, in every way that made me love college football.

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Doc Daneeka

Doc Daneeka 6769

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On 12/16/2023 at 11:31 AM, Vic Mackey said:
On 12/15/2023 at 11:33 PM, Blotto said:
Agreed. NIL as implemented is the stupidest fucking fail related to sports that I can recall. the idea that the average fan should keep chucking in more money (in addition to ever increasing ticket costs, $14 beers, etc...) so that their team can have a chance of winning is idiotic. It will be an arms race with little self restraint on the part of the bidders. If players want to get paid, let the schools pay them.
And then you mix in the abortion that is the transfer portal, and my give  a shit about college athletics has hit all time lows.  Its like the NFL except without a salary cap or contractual obligations.  I get that the current landscape tilts the field in Texas' favor as long as there are enough suckers chipping in their donations, I just dont care. If Cowboys season ticket holders got a letter from Jerry asking for a little something extra to meet payroll, how many do you think would agree to help him out? 

You nailed it. Schools are raking in all the money off these players. It's the same concept as restaurants. They don't pay their employees shit. They have the customers supplement their income. Except at least in that scenario, you are receiving a product and a service. What are people getting in return for paying these players?

The same thing as contributing to the LHF or whatever: helping provide resources to build a better team. 

College football has been “our ringers are better than your ringers” since before I was born and I’m old AF. NIL is just part of the package for the nostalgia and tribalism of grown-ass (mostly) men who still get goosebumps seeing the Longhorn logo or hearing the band play Texas Fight. 

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 53999

Posted
Posted
On 12/15/2023 at 2:53 PM, tx 3 putt said:

Players are going to unionize 

On 12/15/2023 at 3:59 PM, Jkwellborn said:


lol. That will be some crazy shit. They gonna have local reps by state, school, conference? Also, if you think it’s fucked now, wait and see what it’s like if that happens.

Yes, because unions are terrible, right?   Never mind the fact that the NCAA is a union.

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Beau Vine

Beau Vine 53999

Posted
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On 12/18/2023 at 2:01 PM, SurlyORama said:

I can tell you that my interest in and love for college football is waning, and I don't see that stopping anytime soon. In 10 years not sure I will even be watching. Don't have much interest in the NFL, and it's heading down the same path for me.

In the VERY near future (if not already), it will just be the UAPFL - "University-Affiliated Professional Football League". 

While I don't begrudge the players trying to maximize their personal financial benefit, I just don't have interest in watching a bunch of mercenaries who are only at the school for that reason, playing for their third school in four years, etc. It's NFL, but worse, in every way that made me love college football.

Serious response: then go watch D2 or D3 football.  It's pretty cool.  

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Ojo Rojo

Ojo Rojo 1895

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I've been trying to figure out the endgame of conference expansion.  Eventually, will the SEC and Big Ten have all Power 5 teams in them?  Would they usurp all power over the highest level of college football and replace the NCAA and College Football Playoff?  All the money that currently goes to those entities and any other conference would go to them.  Eventually, those two would merge to create a single entity controlling all of college football.  It would be an evolution that would take years, but eventually they would have to legislate the two biggest things affecting college football right now - NIL and the transfer portal.  It has to strike some balance between the players being compensated, having some freedom to move around, and some level of control over the money and movement at an institutional level so it's not the wild west and rampant with abuse.

If I was suddenly appointed the czar of college football and could do whatever I wanted, I would institute pretty much exactly what Chip Kelly said. I think it gets there eventually on its own, albeit slowly. The reason it won't happen quickly is that you have all these different entities with power and money flowing to them who are resisting giving up that power and money.  The bowls, the conferences, the individual universities.  They are resisting change to what makes sense for everyone because it means they have to give up power and money.

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USC_TMB

USC_TMB 405

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I’m old AF, so being around in 20 years is a goal. Considering how rapidly college football has changed in the past couple of years, predicting the future is impossible for me. Once the “under-the-table” shenanigans morphed into “collectives” and the realignment roulette happened, all bets were off. I would guess that within 10 years (at the outside) college football as we know it will be an NFL minor league. Once the players gain legal employee status, and California is leading the charge on this, the universities will divorce the athletic departments for reasons stated by others.

Personally, my give-a-damn is pretty much busted. I have watched possibly 3 games this season total across all teams. Regardless of the success/failure of USC, I’ve found other things to do. Keeping track of which player is going to be where next year, players opting out of games due to the draft or transfer, 30 year-old 10th year seniors, I’m over it. Damn shame since college football has given me years of memories during my time at USC, and a ton of entertainment in general.

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'stache

'stache 21770

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I think CTE and other injuries are also going to make football far less popular, although that may take more than 20 years. I think in say 50 years a bunch of athletes will have avoided football for other less dangerous sports. I know the game goes fast but I truly think players could do more to avoid lowering their helmets or trying to break WR's with NFL Blitz hits. I think it's probably old school coaches who refuse to teach a different form of tackling, because it's all "pussy" shit to them, and they like the good old days of breaking people in half for fun.

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orange dream

orange dream 1241

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Posted (edited)

To the comment above, I have 21-year-old son and a 10-year-old son.  The difference in the parents' attitudes toward letting their boys play football between those two ages has been remarkable.  My 21-year-old had 2 tackle football teams for his private North Dallas elementary school by 3rd grade back in 2011 or so.  My 10-year-old son, they can barely field a flag team.  I think 3 kids started playing tackle independently in 5th grade this year but no team of school kids was formed.  I'll be surprised if there are more than about 15 kids (out of around 60 boys versus I think my older son's class had about 40-45 out of 60 boys) who come out for 7th-grade tackle football in a couple of years.

I  know North Dallas private schools are NOT the most fertile of recruiting grounds but participation levels are declining elsewhere I'll bet.

Edited by orange dream
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ousux

ousux 5586

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To the comment above, I have 21-year-old son and a 10-year-old son.  The difference in the parents' attitudes toward letting their boys play football between those two ages has been remarkable.  My 21-year-old had 2 tackle football teams for his private North Dallas elementary school by 3rd grade back in 2011 or so.  My 10-year-old son, they can barely field a flag team.  I think 3 kids started playing tackle independently in 5th grade this year but no team of school kids was formed.  I'll be surprised if there are more than about 15 kids (out of around 60 boys versus I think my older son's class had about 40-45 out of 60 boys) who come out for 7th-grade tackle football in a couple of years.
I  know North Dallas private schools are NOT the most fertile of recruiting grounds but participation levels are declining elsewhere I'll bet.
I don't doubt what you say, but I think it will depend on the demographics of school systems and individual schools. Whatever fears the CTE ruckus a few years ago caused have been tempered a bit with the Supreme Court decision on NIL. Some high school football programs may fade away while others simply get larger and stronger. There is far too much money in football for it to ever completely go away, and the people making those money decisions are well aware nobody will watch teenagers and adults playing glorified flag football.
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JBJ

JBJ 3649

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Posted (edited)
On 12/16/2023 at 11:18 PM, Reese Bennett said:

Here's Chip after the game talking about some of this stuff.

 

I think the first part should happen and is pretty likely to happen.  That football will break out separate from other conference affiliations.  Not all at once, and the regional B1G and SEC teams might not need to for a long time.

I doubt the part on a unified media rights deal.  Disparate media value is what is the driving force towards a stacked B1G and SEC.   We had a unified media rights deal not too long ago, and, whether for more money or more exposure, the teams and conferences that could get better deals broke off of it.  I'm sure there are multiple ways to structure payouts fairly, but there are too many voices in the room to convince everyone.  And I think people underestimate the value  over exposure over money to a lot of schools (look at SMU).

I think one of the only ways to make this actually work would be a relegation system with media deals negotiated around each tier with payouts being "smoothed out" based on the past several years to avoid budget changes for teams that get promoted/relegated.  The argument could at least be made that everyone has the opportunity to be on TV and make money and it's up to the team to win.  The new permanent underclass will be more willing to swallow cuts if they feel that they at least control their own destiny.  I don't know how you actually kickstart this system, though.  No one will want to be the bubble team left out of the top division.  Another "independent" selection committee?

Edited by JBJ
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Texzilla58

Texzilla58 4717

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The nfl needs a developmental league. They can start funding part of a league to develop players. Some schools may not want to be fielding a pure pro team but I think we end up with 42 to 48 schools that go super conference, the rest of P5 make their own league and compete on their own.

Say 8 divisions of 6, those champions go 8-4-2 done. They play only superconference schools, no rentawins and a 13 game schedule. Structure.

Players will be signing contracts. Maybe sign for 1, then recommit or leave after freshman year. Players are marketing employees of the school not required to be student athletes.

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Mstrat

Mstrat 16

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Players will unionize in single group after starting as multiple. States will move to cut funding, college teams will be forced to become full on licensed affiliates of universities and the big conferences will act as essentially upper end developmental league to the NFL, etc. As ratings for sports continue to decline, companies will pay less and less,tickets prices will soar up. TV deals and what not will become less lucrative and more sponsorships will be had for college athletic league.

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Guest

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Man, bowl season is a mess. I've watched about five minutes of games because even if I'm interested in a matchup, it doesn't feel like the same teams because so many people are opted out. It's essentially like a pre-season game but at the tail end of the season.

I think going to a 12 team playoff will help with this as it means more players have something to keep playing for instead of sitting out. I do wonder if we see opt out "creep" into the regular season -- a team is obviously out of the running for a conference championship or a playoff spot, so a player opts out with three games remaining in the season. 

Edited by FirstTimeCaller
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Jkwellborn

Jkwellborn 6653

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Man, bowl season is a mess. I've watched about five minutes of games because even if I'm interested in a matchup, it doesn't feel like the same teams because so many people are opted out. It's essentially like a pre-season game but at the tail end of the season.

I think going to a 12 team playoff will help with this as it means more players have something to keep playing for instead of sitting out. I do wonder if we see opt out "creep" into the regular season -- a team is obviously out of the running for a conference championship or a playoff spot, so a player opts out with three games remaining in the season. 

That’s already happened a few times.
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Texzilla58

Texzilla58 4717

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The NFL has a developmental league that's free to them.  Why on earth would they pay for one?

If you haven’t noticed college isn’t developing a number of positions because most college players think a playbook is a few pictures of Buc-ee, Spider-Man, or a slurpee. O linemen cant run or pass block, WRs don’t know what a route tree is or how to block, and most QBs don’t know what reads are or a progression.
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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4614

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It will be, at best, far less popular than it is now.  At worst, it won’t exist.  Theres a lot of unsustainable trends:

NIL costs skyrocketing 

Injury fears skyrocketing 

Aging fanbase

Transfer portal mercenaries

Attendance costs skyrocketing (stadium construction/maintenance, concession staffing, etc. all passed on to fans)

TV revenue declining 

If it does survive, there will only be between 20 and 65 teams actually competing, likely all in the SEC and B1G.  

Young people do not give a fuck about sports the way previous generations have.

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'stache

'stache 21770

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I'm legitimately curious if conference championship games will continue. For the Big 12, probably, but for SEC and BIG who will get 3-4 teams in the playoff each most years? What's the incentive? Just more wear and tear and injury risk for a subordinate trophy. 

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66BUFF

66BUFF 2553

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2 hours ago, 'stache said:

I'm legitimately curious if conference championship games will continue. For the Big 12, probably, but for SEC and BIG who will get 3-4 teams in the playoff each most years? What's the incentive? Just more wear and tear and injury risk for a subordinate trophy. 

image.png.eabf168fc012dc9253cbe1e41e0bdb38.png

They will want the money.

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redswingline

redswingline 1057

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On 12/15/2023 at 7:06 PM, atomheartbevo said:

I’m surprised this is being left out.  I know plenty of people who are football fans but wouldn’t let their kids play, unlike in the past.  

Assuming we get more CTE info, things could take a turn.

In 20 years there is a good chance they will have pussified this sport even more. I would like to see an experiment - American football without pads. Kind of like a spin on rugby.

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Tex Long

Tex Long 4347

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39 minutes ago, redswingline said:

I would like to see an experiment - American football without pads. Kind of like a spin on rugby.

Besides the obvious things like continuous play, rugby also does not allow forward passes or blocking, and tackling is somewhat limited. I do like having throw-ins (I mean "line-outs") when the ball goes out of play. In football, I'd like to have that, and wih the ball going to whoever has not caused the ball to go out, i.e. if you run out of bounds with the ball, it's a turnover, but if the other team pushes you out, it's still your ball.

I think the biggest, most fun, rules change (other than equipment) would be to have no such thing as an "incomplete" pass. Better chase that puppy down - it's anybody's ball.

I'd like to see officiating drastically reduced. First, fewer officials. We now have as many officials as a team of players - eleven, counting the chain gang. Make it three, like rugby and futbol: ref, and linesman on each side, period. Second, quit calling procedural fouls that don't affect a play, such as offside, false start, even holding if it's away from the play. 

The only thing that seems remotely possible, at this point, is to put those big squishy helmet covers on, full time. 

Still... in 20 years, probably be seeing required minimum participation numbers based on race, gender, sexual orientation, religious preference... and no orifice penetration, intentional or otherwise.

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The Hot Dog Buffet

The Hot Dog Buffet 1291

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TV contracts will be getting smaller and the super conferences will be cutting dead weight if they haven't already. No future generation will be as invested as Gen X in watching football moving forward. Kids don't participate at the level they used to. And only diehards are going to be willing to carry television service for the purpose of watching sports. We might eventually see a move toward regional conferences with most games not being televised outside of school or conference-run streaming services.

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HornsOverIthaca

HornsOverIthaca 2333

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1 hour ago, LonghornBreeder said:

 

BuXv0B6CUAA5usl.jpg

"Just because people try and make football a little safer by changing a kickoff rule doesn't mean YOU need to take it to "Oh, why don't we just drink each other's cum?"! Sarcasm like that is homophobic, chauvinistic, and completely lacking in maturity! Any questions?!"

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13049

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Posted (edited)
On 12/15/2023 at 2:49 PM, FirstTimeCaller said:

So what does the game look like in another 20 years? 

Interesting question and some of the responses have been equally so.

Seems like there are a couple of ways to think about a 20 year down the road future. One is ideologically as folks have brought up with changing views on the rights of athletes, injuries (both immediate and long term such as CTE), climate (no CR, just reality of playing/viewing in crazy hot weather has always seemed dangerous), rules (a rule book never gets thinner IMO), and such or one can think about it framed the way many have also done with team alignments, financing, organizational structure, and so on.

As much as I grew up watching football,  you are going to have a tough fight to change my mind that athletes should be denied the opportunity to seek resources elsewhere. By that, I mean coaches/personnel are bound by their contract but they leave all the time-- buyouts and all that. A nonathletic student can transfer if they wish provided the incoming school accepts their work and the student has the means to do so.

A scholarship (academic) is an investment in the student and I'm not so sure that an athletic scholarship is all that different. UT says 'here's 10K for acing the SAT, being a Merit Scholar, etc' but maybe your student decides that Austin isn't ideal in some way. Some academic scholarships are portable while athletic scholarships aren't really, but if one thinks about it, if your child is a hotshot math major and *Cal-Tech says, "hey, come spend your last two years with us and we'll foot the bill" you might say "pack up Johnny, you're going to Pasadena!" That's what the mutually beneficial part of what public unis used to be in a way; they provided an opportunity for the student or athlete for a value education while the State gained an educated taxpayer (at potential a higher rate) who most often stayed in the state where they went to school or an athletic promotional boon in terms of NFL/NBA/MBL and other positives. But that was then and this is now. So, IMO, twenty years from now and thinking about that right now, it goes back to those topics mentioned above and by other posters regarding generations. In 2044, the youngest group, Gen Z, will range in age from about 32 to 47 while the oldest group (I'm using Gen X here) will be about 64-79. The larger group, Millennials, fit in the middle at 48 to 63 years. That's normally good $$ years wouldn't you say?

That's where I have to think the good old days ideology is going to meet financial reality and the personal (see above) when it comes to the sport. Football of the 70s, 80s, 90s on up to now didn't have to compete with eyeballs everywhere looking everywhere at everything all at once. Football won't disappear but at the collegiate levels it seems likely to change. Some of that may depend on the $$ bringing the stick. Whomever ends up controlling all those dollars will decide who gets most benefit. I have doubts it will be fans or athletes. Schools maybe, but certainly not most.

This is long enough, but it was an interesting thing to think about, especially given this last year. Another sport that's been going through some change is golf.

 

 

TL/DR--"There are three kinds of pipe. There's what you have, which is garbage - and you can see where that's gotten you. There's bronze, which is pretty good, unless something goes wrong. And something always goes wrong. Then, there's copper, which is the only pipe I use. It costs money. It costs money because it saves money."--Cosmo Castorini, Moonstruck (1987)

 

 

* Cal-Tech is private and that is part of the point. Private and public universities don't always have the same mission nor serve the same students the same way. I have doubts, however, that Harvard will suddenly begin paying out for a championship football squad.

Edited by Mrs Whiggins
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'stache

'stache 21770

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Posted (edited)

On the health and safety side, I really think it could improve massively if there was a universal agreement among all levels to fundamentally change tackling techniques. Way too much bearing down and launching the body, especially from linebackers and in the secondary. I wish it could be more scrum like tackling. I’d even support reducing the number of eligible receivers and encouraging a stronger focus on power running. I’d give the secondary way more leeway in how they defend so that more contact occurs prior to the ball arriving so there’s less “lowering the boom” in the secondary. Recent rule changes seem to favor the receivers and just encourages passing to the sidelines and over the middle where the most dangerous hits occur. It would still be a game the way we recognize it but a little different. I know it would never happen though because there’s way too many meatheads involved who will refuse to change tackling techniques and call it “pussification” or whatnot.

Edit: I also know that there’s CTE issues among linemen from continuous knocks but the most visible and career ending concussions are happening in the secondary. 

Edited by 'stache
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