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Operation Prosperity Guardian: The Red Sea Cruise 2023-? But wait there's more! Iran + proxies, FAFO

atomheartbevo

By atomheartbevo
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bolverk

bolverk 29779

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4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yeah, but something that hit me today. We have a pretty damn large base right across those straits. Oh and the Aussies will send 11 personnel, no equipment.

As usual, it will be the US, the French, and maybe the Japanese. Brits need to run sea trials still for their carriers, even though active still do flight ops, and let them hold the North Sea. Plus do we want to unleash the Brit Navy anywhere? Who else? Danes and Dutch can send one each, maybe an Italian ship, but that is where I would want to be assigned. The Kenyans? Nah. Oman? Nah. UAE and KSA have already been fighting the Houthis so they love this shit. And there has been a lot of noise up to this to stop US assistance to those two countries due their role in Yemen.

So the gulf states want to make sure oil is safe. the EU wants their cheap as IKEA shit. Japan wants to send cars to the EU. Man, to own a bunkering facility in Mombassa right now.

I haven't seen the list of the 20+ partners in this, but I do know that the US, France, AND CHINA, all have a sizeable presence in Djibouti, all with naval bases there. Given that it's just on the other side of the sea, it makes sense for all of them to be part of the operation. Do we know if China is participating, or are they hanging back?

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Guadaloopy
Guadaloopy

Holy shit, this takes me back.   I wrote the CONOPS for escort operations in the BAM back in ‘03 with the Nimitz Strike Group.  The Commodore put his name on it, but I wrote it.  We decided that

Gatorubet
Gatorubet

Obligatory:

Viper
Viper

The US helping Kata'ib Hezbollah cars get to 88 mph      

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 26264

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, bolverk said:

I haven't seen the list of the 20+ partners in this, but I do know that the US, France, AND CHINA, all have a sizeable presence in Djibouti, all with naval bases there. Given that it's just on the other side of the sea, it makes sense for all of them to be part of the operation. Do we know if China is participating, or are they hanging back?

From what I read China has warned us. They have a few light boats, but projection of power?

And while we focus on the US Navy, lets not forget the USAF assets in the Gulf. We might have 1 or 2 aircraft.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 26264

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6 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yeah, they had some of those always working. German concept of a capitol cruiser, but with tech. So sink that fuck. I need my standing desk. I kid, but you know what I mean.

Lemoneir is the place I worry about for a mass attack. And a few places in Kenya.

Sorry man, the squirrel did not get fed. I was also answering to the Iranian boat.

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bolverk

bolverk 29779

Posted
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9 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

From what I read China has warned us. They have a few light boats, but projection of power?

And while we focus on the US Navy, lets not forget the USAF assets in the Gulf. We might have 1 or 2 aircraft.

Yeah, I'm not concerned about China getting involved on the other side against us, just whether they've joined the coalition to protect sea lanes. 

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 26264

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1 minute ago, bolverk said:

Yeah, I'm not concerned about China getting involved on the other side against us, just whether they've joined the coalition to protect sea lanes. 

No. So force those fuckers to sail via the Magellan Straits. If they don't want to protect, well their trade is at risk. Nations can sign up for escorts is what I am reading. If your nation does not participate, and NATO has a treaty to protect members ships, well China's ships can move on their own.

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bolverk

bolverk 29779

Posted
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1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

No. So force those fuckers to sail via the Magellan Straits. If they don't want to protect, well their trade is at risk. Nations can sign up for escorts is what I am reading. If your nation does not participate, and NATO has a treaty to protect members ships, well China's ships can move on their own.

Absolutely.

I know next to nothing about maritime trade, except for the brief amount I learned from a YT video posted by @Bevo (I think?) last night. The latter part of it was the most interesting, dealing with insurance rates in the Red Sea and what flags vessels were flying under.

Do we know if Chinese exports are shipped under Liberian or Panamanian flags, or are they under Chinese flags? The reason I'm asking is to know if Chinese commercial ships would be at risk and what China would be willing to do to protect its own economic interests. I'm kind of guessing they're not under the Chinese flag and could, therefore, be a target. So, yeah, they'll have to take the long way around, which would disrupt their own logistics of getting goods to market.

With all these choke points to maritime trade suddenly being exposed (e.g., Panama Canal with low water, Suez blockage last year, Red Sea at large due to this shit, anything near Taiwan because of China), it really, really, really puts at risk the infrastructure undergirding global trade.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15380

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On 12/20/2023 at 9:07 PM, Guadaloopy said:

Fatigue from repeated impacts.
 

Yep.  Just welded them in as cross beams for support.  Good enough until their next yard period when they would do full replacements.  

{obligatory} ….’s mom was fatigued from repeated impacts until her next period {obligatory}

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 26264

Posted
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22 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Absolutely.

I know next to nothing about maritime trade, except for the brief amount I learned from a YT video posted by @Bevo (I think?) last night. The latter part of it was the most interesting, dealing with insurance rates in the Red Sea and what flags vessels were flying under.

Do we know if Chinese exports are shipped under Liberian or Panamanian flags, or are they under Chinese flags? The reason I'm asking is to know if Chinese commercial ships would be at risk and what China would be willing to do to protect its own economic interests. I'm kind of guessing they're not under the Chinese flag and could, therefore, be a target. So, yeah, they'll have to take the long way around, which would disrupt their own logistics of getting goods to market.

With all these choke points to maritime trade suddenly being exposed (e.g., Panama Canal with low water, Suez blockage last year, Red Sea at large due to this shit, anything near Taiwan because of China), it really, really, really puts at risk the infrastructure undergirding global trade.

I have not dealt with that type of trade, but commecial runs are covered. I think China would be more worried about oil going east than goods going west.

Lets shut down Malacca. Give the Burmese rangers a few systems.

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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19452

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Lot of misinformation and confusion out there - claims that in a meeting with coalition partners, the French left because the US is doing defense-only and not going to attack directly into Yemen, while the French want to hammer Yemen, while some Arab nations want to play it cool and not go into Yemen, etc.  I'm guessing the Israeli/Hamas fight is complicating things - US trying to keep it from turning into an Israel/Europe/USA vs Arab/Muslim/etc. fight.  Still, even if true for now (that we are only playing defense), we've parked a shitload of cruise missiles off the coast.

 

Anyways, article on private security forces that more shipping companies are hiring

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/inside-the-private-security-forces-protecting-red-sea-shipping

You might find the bit below interesting @InkaUtexas

There's talk that there are Iranians actively working in the Red Sea/Yemeni area and involved in targeting, etc.:

This is the ship they are bitching about - Iranian cargo ship being used as a base ship in the Red Sea, equipped with sensors, speedboats etc., and the Iranians are using it to help the Houthis pick targets.  Apparently it just sails around the Red Sea not delivering cargo, but its predecessor apparently picked up an Israeli limpet mine in 2021, so...

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:657839/mmsi:422036200/imo:9167289/vessel:BEHSHAD

----

About 49 seconds into the video "Coalition warship we have just received warning from Iranian naval vessel and Yemen naval vessel If we do not alter our course, they will be bombing us directly"

MV Behshad a known IRGCN forward base ship equipped with a variety of sensors to collect electronic data and 6 Boston whalers style speed boats is actively taking part in hostile operations against civilian merchant ships. There are IRGCN sailors aboard and they are actively providing targeting data and actively engaging in hostile action against civilian merchant ships

 

Man, if only we had some sort of specialized naval commandos that were trained for missions like this...

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RPM

RPM 26381

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 12/22/2023 at 12:08 PM, InkaUtexas said:

Coasties have been operating in that area for a long time. From Oman up into the Gulf.

Now they have a homeport in Bahrain with a half dozen heavily armed FRC (Fast Response Cutter) specifically designed to stop piracy that can cruise at 40kts. I know it's only rock and roll but I like it. Yes, I do.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 26264

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FAFO. Some of the gear we sold them is pretty good at wrecking civilian centers, yet for years the Saudis could not gain the upper hand. And while there was a ceasefire on paper, the Houthis still would shoot missiles/drone into Saudi and the UAE.

 

The Biden administration is preparing to relax restrictions on some weapons sales to Saudi Arabia, U.S. officials said on Thursday, crediting the kingdom’s peace talks with a militia in Yemen for hastening an easing of the constraints.

President Biden imposed the ban two years ago amid concerns that U.S. weapons were being used against civilians in Yemen, where hundreds of thousands of people have died from airstrikes, fighting, disease and hunger as a Saudi-led military coalition waged war against an Iran-backed militia called the Houthis.

The expected loosening of the limits — which blocked sales of major offensive weapons to Saudi Arabia — comes as the kingdom attempts to finalize a U.S.-backed peace accord with the Houthis.

A representative for the White House National Security Council declined to comment.

The U.S. officials did not say when the easing of the ban on sales might occur. And such a move could be reversed if Mr. Biden decides it is not in U.S. interests to allow the offensive weapons to flow to Saudi Arabia, which is by far the largest buyer of American arms.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/21/us/politics/weapons-sales-saudi-arabia-yemen.html

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956 Worldwide

956 Worldwide 34869

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Rumors have been floating around maritime twitter for a while, and I refrained from posting.  If Rogoway writes about it, it’s legit. There are serious cracks in this coalition and many of the most capable partners will not put ships under U.S. command and will only escort their ships. 
 

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/cracks-form-in-new-naval-coalition-drone-strikes-spread-to-indian-ocean

 

Like it or not, these are signals about confidence in American leadership. The PC where the Pentagon says that they will act as “highway patrol” is unsettling.  Like it or not, it’s unacceptable that a terror group backed by Iran is flinging missiles at shipping and we are basically just trying to hunker down and react. This will not end until the people shooting are shot back at. 
 

Also lots of talk that the operation and its contours is being done at the NSC by non-Navy, non-shipping people. Which tracks. 

 

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956 Worldwide

956 Worldwide 34869

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1 hour ago, Boss Hogg said:

Can you elaborate here? Why would they be running this and how is that shown by what you’re observing?

Besides the readiness issues that @FartingMonk mentioned, this admin is one that tends to run all they can from the White House (NSC) and not to give much credence to executive agencies and their experts. They’re very directive on foreign policy. It’s been trending that way for a long time and the Obama admin was similar. 
 

One big indicator is the announcement of the coalition and then the elapsed amount of time with no information and still dribs and drabs of what will actually be happening.  It’s not as much OpSec as you think, what’s most likely happening is dithering and paralysis at the NSC, which is supposed to be a coordinating body and not a policy making body.  They’re not making decisions and they don’t have people there who can make these decisions.  They’re asking for options and options and then coming back with questions and other asks and so things just grind to a halt. 

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FartingMonk

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6 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Besides the readiness issues that @FartingMonk mentioned, this admin is one that tends to run all they can from the White House (NSC) and not to give much credence to executive agencies and their experts. They’re very directive on foreign policy. It’s been trending that way for a long time and the Obama admin was similar. 
 

One big indicator is the announcement of the coalition and then the elapsed amount of time with no information and still dribs and drabs of what will actually be happening.  It’s not as much OpSec as you think, what’s most likely happening is dithering and paralysis at the NSC, which is supposed to be a coordinating body and not a policy making body.  They’re not making decisions and they don’t have people there who can make these decisions.  They’re asking for options and options and then coming back with questions and other asks and so things just grind to a halt. 

Pretty much hit the nail on the the head with that.  The military especially the Navy is all about CYA until retirement.  They can't and won't make decisions.  It also doesn't help that Tommy Dumbass the Senator from Alabama has held up a ton of high ranking appointments to the NSC and other leadership roles so the guys who are actually running it are just treading water until the real guys show up

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Doc Sam Beckett

Doc Sam Beckett 5800

Posted
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9 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

Pretty much hit the nail on the the head with that.  The military especially the Navy is all about CYA until retirement.  They can't and won't make decisions.  It also doesn't help that Tommy Dumbass the Senator from Alabama has held up a ton of high ranking appointments to the NSC and other leadership roles so the guys who are actually running it are just treading water until the real guys show up

That's fucking infuriating 

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Pescado_Rojo

Pescado_Rojo 19452

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19 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

Pretty much hit the nail on the the head with that.  The military especially the Navy is all about CYA until retirement.  They can't and won't make decisions.  It also doesn't help that Tommy Dumbass the Senator from Alabama has held up a ton of high ranking appointments to the NSC and other leadership roles so the guys who are actually running it are just treading water until the real guys show up

Thanks for answering the question I was about to ask. Fuck that asshole. 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89891

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8 minutes ago, Parliament said:

I’m not questioning the strategic intent or anything, and definitely not saying it’s easy.  

what are these missile/drone launch sites like?  How mobile are they?  What is their supply chain?  Is it practical to take out a bunch with missiles/bombs?

It's got to be easier to hit them on the ground than the air, and I would assume the Saudis have plenty of info about the ground installations, as well as the US and Israel.

It's fucking odd/infuriating, because we've been hitting Iranian proxies in Iraq/Syria just 3-4 weeks ago, we hit facilities that they were using to store weapons used in attacks against our troops in Iraq/Syria.  We're not shy about hitting shit in recent months.  

Putting aside analysis paralysis, f I had to guess, maybe they are hiding the stuff in civilian areas, or we are trying to make sure that there are Arab/Muslim countries that are also hitting them alongside us.

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FartingMonk

FartingMonk 3608

Posted
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Just now, atomheartbevo said:

It's got to be easier to hit them on the ground than the air, and I would assume the Saudis have plenty of info about the ground installations, as well as the US and Israel.

It's fucking odd/infuriating, because we've been hitting Iranian proxies in Iraq/Syria just 3-4 weeks ago, we hit facilities that they were using to store weapons used in attacks against our troops in Iraq/Syria.  We're not shy about hitting shit in recent months.  

Putting aside analysis paralysis, f I had to guess, maybe they are hiding the stuff in civilian areas, or we are trying to make sure that there are Arab/Muslim countries that are also hitting them alongside us.

I think the reason we aren't hitting them and taking a strictly defensive posture is we are scared of escalation.  Israel is a little far for them to do any real damage.  We piss them off enough and they are going to burn for the Saudi refineries to the ground.

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Thetexashammer

Thetexashammer 1062

Posted
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2 hours ago, Parliament said:

I’m not questioning the strategic intent or anything, and definitely not saying it’s easy.  
 

what are these missile/drone launch sites like?  How mobile are they?  What is their supply chain?  Is it practical to take out a bunch with missiles/bombs?

If you want to stop it, you don't send the missiles to Yemen. You send them to Iran.

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FartingMonk

FartingMonk 3608

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Thetexashammer said:

If you want to stop it, you don't send the missiles to Yemen. You send them to Iran.

I tried.  Apparently FedEx doesn't ship munitions overseas.  And now the ATF is investigating me for ITAR stuff.  Last time I listen to a college sports website telling me to send missiles to Iran to stop a war.   Fucking regarded ass people. 

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Bevo

Bevo 13609

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

I tried.  Apparently FedEx doesn't ship munitions overseas.  And now the ATF is investigating me for ITAR stuff.  Last time I listen to a college sports website telling me to send missiles to Iran to stop a war.   Fucking regarded ass people. 

Iran doesn't give a damn about its proxies. They are an expendable asset. We can hit them hundreds of times and the rebels will still fight back. To stop it, we need to either get boots on the ground (which is a terrible idea) or go after Iran directly. Iran sees negotiations and defensive postures as a sign of weakness.

 

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