Operation Prosperity Guardian: The Red Sea Cruise 2023-? But wait there's more! Iran + proxies, FAFO

[MissingInAction 25082]

That's an old one but I'll allow it for FAFO entertainment. 

[Captainant 27677]

1 hour ago, thunderlounge said:

Carrier != Tomahawks

There could be 15 carriers there, and wouldn't be a tommy to be found.

 

Carrier == carrier strike group == DDG's == tomahawks

[Foosters 17857]

[thunderlounge 7837]

3 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Carrier == carrier strike group == DDG's == tomahawks

No, he said carrier. Not carrier strike group, and certainly not battle group. 
 

Also, you forgot CG’s in your attempt at a rebuttal.

 

[atomheartbevo 89675]

Hopefully India will enter the chat, as their motorcycle units will make quick work of Iran.

[InkaUtexas 25950]

Don't let a former UT AD see that. Imagine that leading the team onto the field.

[gsoda3 3262]

Hopefully India will enter the chat, as their motorcycle units will make quick work of Iran.

Ok what was that

[atomheartbevo 89675]

27 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Don't let a former UT AD see that. Imagine that leading the team onto the field.

[MagicSoccerSpray 1732]

7 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

Yeesh if we are being bitches about flying F-18s against a bunch of amateurs then that definitely means we don't have the resolve to launch airstrikes against Iran.  If we are being that big of bitches.  Just bring everyone home

 

wE d0nT wHahNt 2 eScaLaTe!1!

[Bevo 13577]

4 hours ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

 

wE d0nT wHahNt 2 eScaLaTe!1!

BuT Us CiTiZenS R DyInG 4 No ReASoN!

[Schulz2.0 28957]

 

 

 

[Parliament 14260]

1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

 

The King’s carriers feature F34B’s.  The TRUE Shitbird.  They’ll get a chance to prove themselves.  

[SurlyGator 865]

34, 35, whatever it takes

[thunderlounge 7837]

2 whole carriers? 

[RPM 26321]

9 hours ago, Parliament said:

The King’s carriers feature F34B’s.

Is that a metric version?

[Parliament 14260]

It’s the STOVL variant.

[RPM 26321]

11 minutes ago, Parliament said:

It’s the STOVL variant.

nope

[atomheartbevo 89675]

So the last round of attacks saw a Houthi/Iranian missile get close enough to a Navy ship that the fucking Phalanx had to engage it

https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/02/middleeast/phalanx-gun-last-line-of-defense-us-navy-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

 

[thunderlounge 7837]

I’d love to put a couple

of CIWS on the house. 

[Armybrat 40850]

All talk, no action so far?

[SmokeyTheBear 5562]

1 hour ago, thunderlounge said:

I’d love to put a couple

of CIWS on the house. 

Creating grackle mist

[Bevo 13577]

14 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

All talk, no action so far?

 

[Ghost of LL 15531]

27 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

All talk, no action so far?

There seems to be a lot of diplomatic action.  Iran desperately wants not to get hit directly.  At the same time, we don't necessarily want to hit Iran directly for fear of sparking a general war in a region in which we have fewer and fewer strategic interests.  Or maybe we do, as a way to weaken the Iranian regime and in the expectation that Iran will just eat shit and smile.  There's a lot of uncertainty on both sides, and so a lot of incentive to avoid increased confrontation.

And so it seems that there is a lot of activity through various intermediaries and a lot of signaling.  And sorting that out is going to delay whatever play we decide to make.

And all that is fine.  Because there's really no hurry.  A tomahawk delivered tomorrow is no less effective than a tomahawk delivered today.

[Bevo 13577]

10 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

There seems to be a lot of diplomatic action.  Iran desperately wants not to get hit directly.  At the same time, we don't necessarily want to hit Iran directly for fear of sparking a general war in a region in which we have fewer and fewer strategic interests.  Or maybe we do, as a way to weaken the Iranian regime and in the expectation that Iran will just eat shit and smile.  There's a lot of uncertainty on both sides, and so a lot of incentive to avoid increased confrontation.

And so it seems that there is a lot of activity through various intermediaries and a lot of signaling.  And sorting that out is going to delay whatever play we decide to make.

And all that is fine.  Because there's really no hurry.  A tomahawk delivered tomorrow is no less effective than a tomahawk delivered today.

Iran desperately wants not to get hit directly. 

Except for killing some Americans and injuring many Americans.

 

Iran desperately wants not to get hit directly. 

Except Iran is developing nuclear weapons and will be able to permanently disrupt the Middle East and world oil prices.  And currently we are signaling that we are okay with that.

 

And so it seems that there is a lot of activity through various intermediaries and a lot of signaling. 

True

 

And all that is fine.  Because there's really no hurry.  A tomahawk delivered tomorrow is no less effective than a tomahawk delivered today:

Except when you wait and then attack you will be seen as the aggressor. We won't do shit until a ship gets hit. And even then, it would be limited strikes into Iran. And we will pull out when Israel leaves Gaza.

Edited February 2 by Bevo

[Ghost of LL 15531]

3 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Iran desperately wants not to get hit directly. 

Except for killing some Americans and injuring many Americans.

 

Iran desperately wants not to get hit directly. 

Except Iran is developing nuclear weapons and will be able to permanently disrupt the Middle East and world oil prices.  And currently we are signaling that we are okay with that.

 

And so it seems that there is a lot of activity through various intermediaries and a lot of signaling. 

True

 

And all that is fine.  Because there's really no hurry.  A tomahawk delivered tomorrow is no less effective than a tomahawk delivered today:

Except when you wait and then attack you will be seen as the aggressor. We won't do shit until a ship gets hit. And even then, it would be limited strikes into Iran. And we will pull out when Israel leaves Gaza.

Well, inasmuch as we are now a net exporter of petroleum, we don't really care that world oil prices might go up.

But the immediate issue isn't Iran's nuclear program or world oil prices.  It's three dead Americans.  The only way to deal with Iran's nuclear program is through diplomacy.  We don't have any way to eliminate Iran's nuclear program through military or covert action.  We can (and have) delayed it.  But there's really no way to stop it unless the Iranians themselves agree to a halt.

The best way to accelerate it, however, would be a general war.  In that event, Iran would go full Manhattan Project to finalize its development of nuclear weapons (and the necessary delivery vehicles).  So that's yet another reason to take a measured approach and avoid escalating to the point of bringing about a general war.

All these various considerations take time to parse out and think through.  There's just no benefit to rushing into military action that could spark consequences that we haven't fully thought through.  Taking a week or two or three doesn't make us look like an "aggressor;" anybody who thinks that already thinks we're the aggressor by having troops in Iraq in the first place.  But taking that time could enable us to explore diplomatic solutions that would achieve our goals without risking American lives, treasure, or prestige.

[statsman 5471]

Iran wants to control traffic through the Suez Canal and Persian Gulf. They are allied with Russia and China. 
 
I think the response needs to send the clear message- your ships sail these waters at our pleasure. I think we should sink several of theirs. 
 
The irony of deterrence is that calibrated and measured responses don’t deter. Large and extreme responses do deter. 

Edited February 2 by statsman

[Ghost of LL 15531]

Well, it looks like our initial response is on its way.  To be delivered after the markets close.

 

[SmokeyTheBear 5562]

There were murmurs a couple days ago of significant movement of refuelers flying to Europe. 

[Herbie Hancock 7348]

I’m pretty sure the B1’s headed that way this time last week. 317th AW and 7th BW personnel began mobilizing early last week.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

30 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Well, it looks like our initial response is on its way.  To be delivered after the markets close.

 

holy shit

[Bevo 13577]

1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

Well, inasmuch as we are now a net exporter of petroleum, we don't really care that world oil prices might go up.

But the immediate issue isn't Iran's nuclear program or world oil prices.  It's three dead Americans.  The only way to deal with Iran's nuclear program is through diplomacy.  We don't have any way to eliminate Iran's nuclear program through military or covert action.  We can (and have) delayed it.  But there's really no way to stop it unless the Iranians themselves agree to a halt.

The best way to accelerate it, however, would be a general war.  In that event, Iran would go full Manhattan Project to finalize its development of nuclear weapons (and the necessary delivery vehicles).  So that's yet another reason to take a measured approach and avoid escalating to the point of bringing about a general war.

All these various considerations take time to parse out and think through.  There's just no benefit to rushing into military action that could spark consequences that we haven't fully thought through.  Taking a week or two or three doesn't make us look like an "aggressor;" anybody who thinks that already thinks we're the aggressor by having troops in Iraq in the first place.  But taking that time could enable us to explore diplomatic solutions that would achieve our goals without risking American lives, treasure, or prestige.

If world oil prices rise, our oil prices rise even if we aren't purchasing oil from the middle east.

And yes we can eliminate Iran's nuclear program. We choose not to.

[MissingInAction 25082]

The B1 is definitely a FO level response.

[Bateshorn 9927]

7 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

The B1 is definitely a FO level response.

They are beefing up the fleet at Diego Garcia for whatever they are eventually going to do. 

[956 Worldwide 34715]

3 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

There seems to be a lot of diplomatic action.  Iran desperately wants not to get hit directly.  At the same time, we don't necessarily want to hit Iran directly for fear of sparking a general war in a region in which we have fewer and fewer strategic interests.  Or maybe we do, as a way to weaken the Iranian regime and in the expectation that Iran will just eat shit and smile.  There's a lot of uncertainty on both sides, and so a lot of incentive to avoid increased confrontation.

And so it seems that there is a lot of activity through various intermediaries and a lot of signaling.  And sorting that out is going to delay whatever play we decide to make.

And all that is fine.  Because there's really no hurry.  A tomahawk delivered tomorrow is no less effective than a tomahawk delivered today.

There are big differences in effect between a Tomahawk arriving while you’re under it, versus a Tomahawk arriving when you’ve run away. 
 

We are allowing IRCG people to get out of the way.  Say what you will about this idea, but that’s the goal. Jake Sullivan continues to manage escalation. 

[Ghost of LL 15531]

1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

There are big differences in effect between a Tomahawk arriving while you’re under it, versus a Tomahawk arriving when you’ve run away. 
 

We are allowing IRCG people to get out of the way.  Say what you will about this idea, but that’s the goal. Jake Sullivan continues to manage escalation. 

That is definitely the goal.  And I think it's a good goal.  We neither need nor want a war against Iran right now.

[956 Worldwide 34715]

I’m a fan of killing people who try to kill is, but that veers into CR territory. 
 

I find that this OSINT account is hit or miss.  The B-1s likely flew from Dyess or Ellsworth if it’s accurate. 

[atomheartbevo 89675]

4 hours ago, statsman said:

I think the response needs to send the clear message- your ships sail these waters at our pleasure. I think we should sink several of theirs. 
 
The irony of deterrence is that calibrated and measured responses don’t deter. Large and extreme responses do deter. 

We just need to capture the container ships they, are using as their eyes and ears, particularly in the Red Sea. That blinds them and the Houthi by proxy. Along with that, tell Iran we are shutting down their arms shipments to the general area of the Middle East.  We can isolate the Houthi, and we can definitely impact shipments to Iraq and Syria.

it does feel like Iran knows that a line was crossed, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they are giving up some of the militias to us. Everything feels like we are creeping towards taking out some factories.

[InkaUtexas 25950]

Shit has gone live. US is hitting Syria and Iraq targets linked to Iran.

Breaking on CNN, so what we are hitting is quiet.

Interesting on the timing. Biden goes to Dover, flies back to DC, and here we go.

[Jameslaw121 4448]

19 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Shit has gone live. US is hitting Syria and Iraq targets linked to Iran.

Breaking on CNN, so what we are hitting is quiet.

Interesting on the timing. Biden goes to Dover, flies back to DC, and here we go.

Almost sounds like he gave the go signal at Dover

[bolverk 29683]

Both towns on the Euphrates.

Edited February 2 by bolverk

[InkaUtexas 25950]

15 minutes ago, Jameslaw121 said:

Almost sounds like he gave the go signal at Dover

Maybe, but I think ops orders were given and then executed. Dover is just symbolic.

[bolverk 29683]

CNN is confirming the B1 Bombers were used in this.

[tx 3 putt 76970]

[bolverk 29683]

The HQs of one group was also hit in Iraq. It's kind of a weird deal, but Iraq (with a Q) also employs Iranian-backed militias as part of their armed forces.

 

[TexArcher 37792]

It seems like Iran understands the deal.  Their proxy hit us in the face (probably without Iranian sanction?), so we're going to hit them in the balls 17 times, without violating their airspace or territory proper.

As long as the rest of their proxies are properly incentivized to stand down, by them, this could be done in a few days, without escalation?

[Homercles 10205]

Personally I’m a fan of a more calculated FAFO…let everyone know shit’s coming, watch closely to make sure they don’t try to remove all the hardware, listen closely to learn who is calling the shots and where they run to hide, and drop a bunch of JDAMs to make go boom stuff that isn’t easily replaceable.  

Make it hurt, remind them Global Strike Command exists, but don’t nuke/pave such that they face pressure internally to raise the stakes.   Like when I have to yell at someone else’s kids for being an asshole at my house…cut that shit out.  

Let’s hope it works.  We were at war in the Middle East for almost half my life.  Let’s not do that, there are other problems to solve.  

[SmokeyTheBear 5562]

Jordan enters the fold 

 

 

Edited February 2 by SmokeyTheBear

[atomheartbevo 89675]

Never mind, great title

Edited February 2 by atomheartbevo

[Homercles 10205]

Gotta love the rockets flying off in all directions after being hit…no bullshit propaganda of ‘children’s school for the blind were hit by the great Satan’.  

[Parliament 14260]

A10 nerds rejoice!