Operation Prosperity Guardian: The Red Sea Cruise 2023-? But wait there's more! Iran + proxies, FAFO

[Viper 12103]

 

 

[BLKNSTY 289]

Why isn't there more being said about Saudi Arabia in all this? I thought I read that they were pushing restraint but shouldn't they be all over getting everyone to help them clean up the Houthis in Yemen?

Saudi got their shit absolutely pushed in by the Houthis. Even after they turned Sanaa into a Gaza-like graveyard over the course of six years - they would be stupid to open that can of worms again. It’s unfortunate that they couldn’t compel their slave labor to pick up arms.

http:// https://magazine.zenith.me/en/politics/saudi-arabia-and-war-yemen

[Gil Bang 25918]

 

[Parliament 14242]

How long is this gonna take?  How soon until we can go install our form of government, take their oil and make the world safe for Christians again?

[Neonmoon 38129]

12 minutes ago, Parliament said:

How long is this gonna take?  How soon until we can go install our form of government, take their oil and make the world safe for Christians again?

[nineliveslost 2753]

16 minutes ago, Parliament said:

How long is this gonna take?  How soon until we can go install our form of government, take their oil and make the world safe for Christians again?

You so funny

[Parliament 14242]

(I’m joking.)

[atomheartbevo 89628]

3 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

I am beginning to think China is paying them to launch drones just so they can gauge our capabilities. 

Ukraine is providing far more data.  

3 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

Also I think our shoot down vehicles are probably 9-10x the cost of them building a drone or cruise missile.  

And the targeted ships are probably 100s or 1000s of times the cost of the drones and missiles, as well as the missiles we are using to shoot them down.  

[FartingMonk 3606]

17 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Ukraine is providing far more data.  

And the targeted ships are probably 100s or 1000s of times the cost of the drones and missiles, as well as the missiles we are using to shoot them down.  

Last time I checked we didn't have any Naval assets shooting down Russian cruise missiles or drones.  

 

If the Houthis really wanted to sink those oil tankers.  They would pull a USS Cole type shit.  Which did happen in Yemen.  The Houthis and the pirates have already proven recently that they can get up to and take over an oil tanker.  If they loaded that thing up with 500 lbs of explosives instead of 3 humans.  They would sink an oil tanker easily.  They are blindly taking pot shots right now. Get a dude to drive straight into the side of an oil tanker then I will believe the Houthis are serious about sinking tankers.

[FartingMonk 3606]

That 110 mile closing distance from Taiwan doesn't seem too crazy if they can just continuously send cheap ass drones to bombard.

[Deej 76755]

3 hours ago, Viper said:

Why isn't there more being said about Saudi Arabia in all this? I thought I read that they were pushing restraint but shouldn't they be all over getting everyone to help them clean up the Houthis in Yemen?

Nobody wants to fuck up the golf tour. 

[TexArcher 37765]

So, is this a one-off, as in, you can't launch military attacks on American assets or our allies and just walk away without an ass whipping?

Or, is this the beginning of a widening regional war?

If it's the former, why did it take several weeks to happen...?

Edited January 12 by TexArcher

[Bevo 13566]

2 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

I kept reading this a Prosperity Garden, which I thought was cool like Market Garden.   

I keep thinking Kashmere Gardens, which as Houstonians know aren't very gardenery.

[berlinerbaer 670]

5 hours ago, FartingMonk said:

I am beginning to think China is paying them to launch drones just so they can gauge our capabilities.  

We won't be showing off anything new.

[Telegraph_it 3357]

1 hour ago, TexArcher said:

So, is this a one-off, as in, you can't launch military attacks on American assets or our allies and just walk away without an ass whipping?

Or, is this the beginning of a widening regional war?

If it's the former, why did it take several weeks to happen...?

[atomheartbevo 89628]

Biden’s statement

Quote

Today, at my direction, U.S. military forces—together with the United Kingdom and with support from Australia, Bahrain, Canada, and the Netherlands—successfully conducted strikes against a number of targets in Yemen used by Houthi rebels to endanger freedom of navigation in one of the world’s most vital waterways.
 
These strikes are in direct response to unprecedented Houthi attacks against international maritime vessels in the Red Sea—including the use of anti-ship ballistic missiles for the first time in history. These attacks have endangered U.S. personnel, civilian mariners, and our partners, jeopardized trade, and threatened freedom of navigation. More than 50 nations have been affected in 27 attacks on international commercial shipping. Crews from more than 20 countries have been threatened or taken hostage in acts of piracy.  More than 2,000 ships have been forced to divert thousands of miles to avoid the Red Sea—which can cause weeks of delays in product shipping times. And on January 9, Houthis launched their largest attack to date—directly targeting American ships.
 
The response of the international community to these reckless attacks has been united and resolute. Last month, the United States launched Operation Prosperity Guardian—a coalition of more than 20 nations committed to defending international shipping and deterring Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.  We also joined more than 40 nations in condemning Houthi threats. Last week, together with 13 allies and partners, we issued an unequivocal warning that Houthi rebels would bear the consequences if their attacks did not cease. And yesterday, the United Nations Security Council passed a resolution demanding the Houthis end attacks on merchant and commercial vessels.
 
Today’s defensive action follows this extensive diplomatic campaign and Houthi rebels’ escalating attacks against commercial vessels. These targeted strikes are a clear message that the United States and our partners will not tolerate attacks on our personnel or allow hostile actors to imperil freedom of navigation in one of the world’s most critical commercial routes. I will not hesitate to direct further measures to protect our people and the free flow of international commerce as necessary.

Air Force Central Command statement

Quote

 At the direction of U.S. Central Command, U.S. Air Forces Central, CENTCOM’s Joint & Combined Air Component Command, executed deliberate strikes on over 60 targets at 16 Iranian-backed Houthi militant locations, including command and control nodes, munitions depots, launching systems, production facilities, and air defense radar systems.

Over 100 precision-guided munitions of various types were used in the strikes. These strikes were comprised of coalition air and maritime strike and support assets from across the region, including U.S. Naval Forces Central Command aircraft and Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles launched from surface and sub-surface platforms.

This multi-national strike reinforces the international community’s commitment to freedom of navigation and against repeated Houthi anti-ship ballistic missiles, unmanned aerial vehicles, and cruise missiles attacks on commercial and U.S. and coalition military vessels in the Red Sea.

We remain committed to our critical partners throughout the Middle East to defend against Iranian-backed Militia Groups, including Houthi militants, and the threat they pose to regional security and stability.”

 

[YGIFS 19449]

But I was assured by people with the best words that we weren’t projecting enough strength to the World.  
 

CENTCOM suggests otherwise.  Sometimes it pays to shut up and listen.   

[atomheartbevo 89628]

16 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah.....I'm pretty much putting a placeholder here for the update post we should see soon: "American and allied forces launch comprehensive raid against multiple Houthi targets."  We have to know where a good chunk of their assets and weaponry are.  Tomahawks and airstrikes should happen pretty soon.

[atomheartbevo 89628]

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89628]

[atomheartbevo 89628]

 

 

[956 Worldwide 34702]

 

[Homercles 10205]

Gotta admit those MiG 28’s looked better in Soviet colors in that 1986 documentary Top Gun

[FartingMonk 3606]

The Saudi oil fields better prepare their anuses.  If I were the Houthis that's where I would send my message.  That narrow ass strait where the shipping containers pass through also.  You take one out in there and you just blockaded 15 percent of oil traffic until you can get that thing out of the way

 

[SmokeyTheBear 5562]

27 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

The Saudi oil fields better prepare their anuses.  If I were the Houthis that's where I would send my message.  That narrow ass strait where the shipping containers pass through also.  You take one out in there and you just blockaded 15 percent of oil traffic until you can get that thing out of the way

 

Tangentially related about what happens when you FAFO with the oil system. 

 

 

[Parliament 14242]

If you don't follow that guy on YouTube, you should.  He's our generation's Paul Harvey.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Don’t go into Twitter.  You’ll find out (over and over again) that we did this to support genocide in Gaza. 

[Wally Fairway 5541]

So is this going to be like when Desert Shield suddenly became Desert Storm, or did we just want to send a message and now they hope the shit gets back to "normal" (which it won't)

Or is Operation Prosperity Guardian now swinging into Operation Kick Ass and Take Names

[Wally Fairway 5541]

7 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Don’t go into Twitter. 

FIFY - this is all you really had to say

[Parliament 14242]

23 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

So is this going to be like when Desert Shield suddenly became Desert Storm, or did we just want to send a message and now they hope the shit gets back to "normal" (which it won't)

Or is Operation Prosperity Guardian now swinging into Operation Kick Ass and Take Names

I’ll defer to the 1-2 people here who know things, but my take is there’ll be a few more strikes.  We’ll go find the stuff we missed the 1st time and blow it up.

And is there any chance we’ll take out the Iranian ships send the weapons there in the first place?  

[atomheartbevo 89628]

Turkey/Erdogan is complying that the US and UK are trying to turn the Red Sea into a "sea of blood", all the while the US kept telling the Houthis for weeks to knock it off.

[956 Worldwide 34702]

“Sea of Blood” sounds pretty metal. 
 

The Houthis will likely feel compelled to respond so it will be telling if it’s at a lower level and tapers off. 

[Pescado_Rojo 19413]

1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

“Sea of Blood” sounds pretty metal. 
 

The Houthis will likely feel compelled to respond so it will be telling if it’s at a lower level and tapers off. 

I assume we've got fairly complete satellite and drone coverage over the area? Is it good enough to see them prepping missiles/drones for launch? Could we put a couple Global Hawks up there and hit them as they prepare to launch?  

[ConferenceRoom 6141]

6 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

“Sea of Blood” sounds pretty metal. 

[atomheartbevo 89628]

5 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

 

 

[Parliament 14242]

6 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I assume we've got fairly complete satellite and drone coverage over the area? Is it good enough to see them prepping missiles/drones for launch? Could we put a couple Global Hawks up there and hit them as they prepare to launch?  

And some SOCOM guys riding around on dirt bikes checking things out.

[horn4life 3759]

Interestingly this is the first true battle testing of US forces in the face of new drone based warfare.  The good news is we can crush them if we want to.  The bad news is the risk/reward from a financial perspective works against us.  High tech is awesome, and allows precision.  But drones are the new guerrilla warfare.  Cheap, effective, and expensive to combat successfully.

Lots of balls in the air in the region, but also likely a pretty painful pin prick from the coalition.  Main thing is Biden is smart enough to get a coalition for this action, as an attack solely by the US would be much weaker(IMO), even if of equal damage infliction.  It will be interesting to see if the Houtis simply take the pounding in stride and keep the attacks coming.  Or does this pin prick make them change behavior?  

Mainly it's about financial stability and trade for the US and the partners.  But Iran and the Houtis don't give a shit about trade and know quite frankly that our desire to protect trade is our "weakness." Because the risk reward from a cost perspective tilts in their favor, should they keep disrupting shipping.  So then does the coalition really start pounding? Selectively pound? No cost effective solution.  So do we have to be willing to really, really inflict some damage if there is no change in behavior after this initial strike?  Or just repetitive similar level or response?  

It will be interesting to see what happens.  

**I will also say what I have always said about the region.  Everything you need to know can be summed up by watching three hours of "Lawrence of Arabia."  Same tribal problems for centuries.  Not much has honestly changed since this movie about WW I was made in the '60's.

Edited January 12 by horn4life

[Brisketexan 105066]

7 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

While I clearly AM a prescient genius....this one didn't exactly take a crystal ball to see coming.

Which means that the Houthis saw it coming as well.  We'll see how effective these strikes really were, or whether the Houthis had ample time to move shit away.

[atomheartbevo 89628]

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

And is there any chance we’ll take out the Iranian ships send the weapons there in the first place?  

15 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I assume we've got fairly complete satellite and drone coverage over the area? Is it good enough to see them prepping missiles/drones for launch? Could we put a couple Global Hawks up there and hit them as they prepare to launch?  

7 minutes ago, horn4life said:

So then does the coalition really start pounding? Selectively pound? No cost effective solution.  So do we have to be willing to really, really inflict some damage if there is no change in behavior after this initial strike?  Or just repetitive similar level or response?  

We have them under surveillance, and should they still have some big stuff to pull out and fire off, we'll probably hit those sites as well.

I would not be surprised if we start checking all Iranian ships making their way to Yemen.  We already search and seize Iranian ships (the ship they just hijacked, we seized from them a year or two ago) looking for oil/weapons that violating the sanctions.

We are also probably just a step or two away from hitting/seizing the Iranian cargo ships being used as intelligence gathering platforms to help the Houthis with targeting.

[Bevo 13566]

14 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

While I clearly AM a prescient genius....this one didn't exactly take a crystal ball to see coming.

Which means that the Houthis saw it coming as well.  We'll see how effective these strikes really were, or whether the Houthis had ample time to move shit away.

Well, obviously we warned them so there wouldn't be casualties. So, whatever we hit was equipment of the low-tech variety. And as you said, a lot of it was moved or hidden. We have pretty sophisticated surveillance, though.

What worries me is that it will lead to exactly what the Biden administration was trying to prevent - escalation. Iran will still supply the Houthis and the Western attacks rile up others. And as these attacks continue, eventually something bad will happen. We just have to hope that Israel can finish the job and we can leave before the shit hits the fan.

But, as we all know, we are just kicking the can down the road. Iran may already have nuclear weapons. Then what? So, I am rooting for escalation. We (the world) need the Iranian leadership gone.

Edited January 12 by Bevo

[atomheartbevo 89628]

11 minutes ago, horn4life said:

Interestingly this is the first true battle testing of US forces in the face of new drone based warfare. 

This is also the first time our forces are dealing with cruise missiles being launched from small nations or non-state actors (if somebody can think of a better term for the Houthis I'd like to hear it).  We got a workout with the ballistic missiles in Desert Storm, but cruise missiles are a different aspect.

Of course, lots of American/NATO hardware is getting a fairly constant workout in Ukraine in terms of dealing with drones/cruise missiles, and in terms of cost, it all comes back to the cost of the air defense system versus the cost of the target.  I'm wondering what the F/A-18s that are shooting down cruise missiles are using - I'm assuming Sidewinders.

[SmokeyTheBear 5562]

30 minutes ago, ConferenceRoom said:

 

So good

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

 

[956 Worldwide 34702]

 

[956 Worldwide 34702]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

This is also the first time our forces are dealing with cruise missiles being launched from small nations or non-state actors (if somebody can think of a better term for the Houthis I'd like to hear it).  We got a workout with the ballistic missiles in Desert Storm, but cruise missiles are a different aspect.

Of course, lots of American/NATO hardware is getting a fairly constant workout in Ukraine in terms of dealing with drones/cruise missiles, and in terms of cost, it all comes back to the cost of the air defense system versus the cost of the target.  I'm wondering what the F/A-18s that are shooting down cruise missiles are using - I'm assuming Sidewinders.

One of the key reasons not to extrapolate too much here is that in a peer or near-peer conflict, the Carrier Strike Group would not have been floating around working on their fielding  for a few weeks. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

19 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

 

googling / twitter searching for the claim.  where did the houthis claim they sunk a carrier?

 

twitter seems to show it was a topic of conversation mid December about capabilities.  can't find anything saying they did.  

[Homercles 10205]

Always fun to bring this guy out

[Viper 12103]

53 minutes ago, Homercles said:

Always fun to bring this guy out

The houthis and their non-violent cruise missiles 

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

Inter Continental Ballistic Massages.

[Grimas 669]

Does anyone know if we've ever put Apache's on Navy ships?  I'd think they would make a great tool to patrol the seas around the ships and remove any smaller surface craft better than a fast mover...