Joe Biden 2024 thread - Dark Brandon Where Art Thou?

[elfenix 34,289]

1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

Not sure where else to ask this,  but I’d really like for Biden to catch up to Trump on judge appointments.  How are we doing on that front?  I wish we could end the blue slip policy or whatever. It’s holding up a bunch of nominations.

biden is at 170 through the end of the year.  trump finished with 245.  obama, bush, and clinton had 334, 340, and 387, respectively.  elder bush had 197 and carter 262. carter was helped along by a 30% expansion in the number of district and appellate judges in 1978, and there were 72 positions added in 1990 (not sure how many the elder bush appointed).  

[tx 3 putt 76,988]

 

 

[Biff Tannen 45,691]

Polls are bullshit.  Nobody has any clue.

[SHOOTER12 8,810]

On 1/3/2024 at 9:20 AM, atomheartbevo said:

Trump is also not bothering to actually campaign in WI, PA, MI, AZ, NC, and NV.  He’s basically hosting occasional legal fundraisers. Can’t generate enthusiasm if the cult doesn’t get to see Dear Leader out and about,

[Carrie] "don't pay him any attention, he was born an asshole and just grew bigger".[Ann]

[SydneyCarton 48,109]

10 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

 

I...flat out don't believe that. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26,477]

44 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Polls are bullshit.  Nobody has any clue.

 

7 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I...flat out don't believe that. 

1) I think this poll is an outlier 

BUT

2) polling quality tends to be higher with that cohort than any other.

[SydneyCarton 48,109]

22 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

 

1) I think this poll is an outlier 

BUT

2) polling quality tends to be higher with that cohort than any other.

I agree, Quinnipiac isn't some jackleg partisan operation. That being said, those numbers, and without looking at their methodology and the numbers involved, just seems like they fucking got an odd bounce of answers and returns. 

I'm going to a party for a friend this weekend who's wife just graduated law school through covid and while raising their 3 boys, and it's quite an accomplishment. I joked with him, since he's very Republican, that I'm surprised he invited me since most of the guest list will be his Katy neighbors, aggies and the expected ilk. He said "I trust you have the social grace to handle that dynamic, and besides, you can just talk to my mom and brother exclusviely and talk them down from the ledge about biden's polling numbers."

My response was "First, no one has ever accused me of or made the fatal mistake of assuming I have social grace of any kind, and you shouldn't be the first. Second, that's easy, polls are unreliable dogshit that mean nothing. Tell me how that red wave went in 2024."

/csb 

Edited January 12 by SydneyCarton

[atomheartbevo 89,710]

18 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

1) I think this poll is an outlier 

BUT

2) polling quality tends to be higher with that cohort than any other.

11 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I agree, Quinnipiac isn't some jackleg partisan operation. That being said, those numbers, and without looking at their methodology and the numbers involved, just seems like they fucking got an odd bounce of answers and returns. 

It's Pennsylvania voters for starters, so I can somewhat believe it.  Trump has not endeared himself to Pennsylvanians since 2016/2020, and even some of the older MAGA crowd in that region would probably prefer somebody other than Trump on that ballot.

Honestly, I think it would be more interesting to see a Biden/Haley or Biden/DeSantis matchup from that polling data - it would provide a far clearer picture on whether it's a Trump or Biden thing.

[HenryJames 66,082]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/irs-has-already-collected-more-than-500-million-in-back-taxes-from-delinquent-millionaires-b70fe240

[shakahorn 1,645]

2 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

Polls are bullshit.  Nobody has any clue.

Polls have been broken since 2016 (and maybe before that).  Hillary was supposed to wipe the floor with Trump according to the polls at the time.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

They're particularly bullshit now that we live in an era that the electorate is diced so perfectly that every national election comes down to the wire.  Last two presidential elections depended on the whims of 100,000 votes in key states each time.  We get polls that are all +/- 3%.  Otherwise known as +/- 4.5MM.  Very helpful.

[Brisketexan 105,154]

8 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

They're particularly bullshit now that we live in an era that the electorate is diced so perfectly that every national election comes down to the wire.  Last two presidential elections depended on the whims of 100,000 votes in key states each time.  We get polls that are all +/- 3%.  Otherwise known as +/- 4.5MM.  Very helpful.

Honestly, other than for purposes of understanding some "general national mood" (which I think is largely irrelevant, based on how geographically fractured we've become), national presidential polls are absolutely worthless.  California is going Dem.  Texas is voting red.  And the same is true for 40+ other states.  The only polling that matters is the polling in 5-7 swing states.  Electoral college says "hi."

Show me the polling in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, etc.  I don't give a shit about anywhere else.

[HenryJames 66,082]

36 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

They're particularly bullshit now that we live in an era that the electorate is diced so perfectly that every national election comes down to the wire.  Last two presidential elections depended on the whims of 100,000 votes in key states each time.  We get polls that are all +/- 3%.  Otherwise known as +/- 4.5MM.  Very helpful.

[tx 3 putt 76,988]

the R’s are being very open about dumping social security and medicare. if taken private, it’ll be a shit show

[Brisketexan 105,154]

the R’s are being very open about dumping social security and medicare. if taken private, it’ll be a shit show

The Biden campaign needs to run on those simple messages, pointing to actual words said by actual Republicans.
- they have already made women second class, expendable citizens by overruling Roe. It’s a matter of women’s lives and safety, and all the Republicans care about is finding more ways to prosecute women and make them suffer.
- they want to flat-out END social security,
- same with Medicare.
- they want to elect a man who has promised to be a vengeful dictator and end our democracy.
- they still won’t admit that they supported the attempted murder of our republic the first time, on January 6th.
- they stand on the side of our enemies: Russia, Iran, and North Korea, and oppose the allies who have stood by our side for decades, including 9/11. They turn our back on our friends, and buddy up to our enemies.
Because republicans don’t believe in or support America. But you don’t have to listen to me - listen to their own words, on every point above (play quote after quote).

[tx 3 putt 76,988]

On 1/12/2024 at 8:58 AM, atomheartbevo said:

It's Pennsylvania voters for starters, so I can somewhat believe it.  Trump has not endeared himself to Pennsylvanians since 2016/2020, and even some of the older MAGA crowd in that region would probably prefer somebody other than Trump on that ballot.

Honestly, I think it would be more interesting to see a Biden/Haley or Biden/DeSantis matchup from that polling data - it would provide a far clearer picture on whether it's a Trump or Biden thing.

 

[StassneyHorn 6,609]

On 1/12/2024 at 9:21 AM, HenryJames said:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/irs-has-already-collected-more-than-500-million-in-back-taxes-from-delinquent-millionaires-b70fe240

Not quite tres commas, but nice little ROI there

[atomheartbevo 89,710]

On 1/12/2024 at 10:46 AM, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

They're particularly bullshit now that we live in an era that the electorate is diced so perfectly that every national election comes down to the wire.  Last two presidential elections depended on the whims of 100,000 votes in key states each time.  We get polls that are all +/- 3%.  Otherwise known as +/- 4.5MM.  Very helpful.

I've had this argument/discussion with a lot of people since 2016, and particularly since 2020 - there's a lot of people on the right who still think elections are going to be stolen like LBJ and Ballot Box 13 in the 1940s - that ballots will mysteriously turn up at the last minute and they can't be truly verified.  When I hear something along those lines from somebody, it gives me a good idea of how they think.

I try to explain to them that in this day and age, nobody needs to risk stealing ballots or planting fake ballots anymore - and quite frankly, that is extremely hard and risky as hell to do these days

I go on and explain that the elections these days will not be technically "stolen" like they think they will be (ballots showing up or disappearing), but instead will be influenced by social media and marketing campaigns designed to get certain people out to vote, or keep certain people home, either because they are pissed their person didn't win, or because they think their vote doesn't count.

I explain how cheap and easy it is to sway voters because almost every voter in America has a ton of information about them in various commercial databases that the campaigns tap into, and said databases can basically predict how they vote or what their interests are. A campaign can go to one of these companies and tell them "I need you to reach at least X amount of voters in this county or state with this message or who are concerned about these issues" and the company then goes into the database and starts clicking on things like

• "private schools/home schools"
• "Christian"
• "NRA members (past or present)"
• "voted for this or that party in the last X amount of campaigns"
• "is a homeowner"
• "is white"
• "lives in this state"
• "is of a certain age"
• "has a family"
• etc. etc. etc.

The companies plug in those filters and then spit out lists of addresses for physical mailers, as well as email addresses, social media profiles, etc, and it's all automated and fairly cheap for the amount of reach - the campaign can give them PDFs of their physical, media, and social media ads, and the company will blast it out to 200,000 or 1 million voters who fit that criteria or whatever.  It's automated as hell, and simple to do, and is easier and less risky than inserting or stealing a few hundred or a few thousand votes in a state.

But people don't want to believe that all of those physical mailers, emails, social media ads, social media sock posts, etc. are targeted at them by some nameless company doing it for the profit and that those campaigns work far better than flipping a race in a county or state - they want to cling to the idea of LBJ producing ballot box 13 to push himself over the edge.

[atomheartbevo 89,710]

On 1/12/2024 at 12:43 PM, Brisketexan said:

they stand on the side of our enemies: Russia, Iran, and North Korea, and oppose the allies who have stood by our side for decades, including 9/11. They turn our back on our friends, and buddy up to our enemies.

They don't like it when you ask them if Russia, China, or North Korea joined with us after 9/11 to fight in Afghanistan, and then point NATO and a lot of non-NATO countries did.

It's a fucking weird thing, especially when it's baby boomers who lived through "duck and cover" in the Cold War.

[Js1 85,372]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/01/15/biden-fundraising-campaign-reelection/

President Biden’s campaign effort raised $97 million in the last three months of 2023, a sign of accelerating donor interest in his campaign that notched more money than former president Barack Obama during the same period of his reelection.

[gmr548 16,580]

On 1/11/2024 at 6:53 PM, Voldemort86 said:

Not sure where else to ask this,  but I’d really like for Biden to catch up to Trump on judge appointments.  How are we doing on that front?  I wish we could end the blue slip policy or whatever. It’s holding up a bunch of nominations.

https://www.heritage.org/judicialtracker

https://www.acslaw.org/judicial-nominations/on-the-bench/

For most of his term Biden had been ahead of Trump and had confirmed the most judges since at least Reagan (as far back as this tracker goes). He has now fallen slightly behind Trump and Clinton. His admin remains more efficient than Trump in terms of getting hearings, cloture/roll call, etc. I am hoping the White House and Senate dems can see the writing on the wall for 2024, realize it's very unlikely they control both pieces of the equation after this year, and really prioritize confirmations this year.

You can't really compete with Trump's 3 SCOTUS confirmations unfortunately but overall I think the Biden administration has been a plus with regard to the judiciary. They've played the hand they were dealt pretty well.

[jimmyjazz 45,971]

It would have been nice if the guy in the Oval Office before Trump hadn't served him up free nominations by the bushel.

Thanks, Obama.

['stache 21,818]

On 1/12/2024 at 12:43 PM, Brisketexan said:

The Biden campaign needs to run on those simple messages, pointing to actual words said by actual Republicans.
- they have already made women second class, expendable citizens by overruling Roe. It’s a matter of women’s lives and safety, and all the Republicans care about is finding more ways to prosecute women and make them suffer.
- they want to flat-out END social security,
- same with Medicare.
- they want to elect a man who has promised to be a vengeful dictator and end our democracy.
- they still won’t admit that they supported the attempted murder of our republic the first time, on January 6th.
- they stand on the side of our enemies: Russia, Iran, and North Korea, and oppose the allies who have stood by our side for decades, including 9/11. They turn our back on our friends, and buddy up to our enemies.
Because republicans don’t believe in or support America. But you don’t have to listen to me - listen to their own words, on every point above (play quote after quote).

They are doing this, half the country's voters are immune. Messaging doesn't matter anymore. It's a coin flip whether the country gets to continue or if it ceases to exist. 

[6th Street 6,412]

Biden could help his own cause by taking over the border situation from Kamala who is largely useless and incompetent 

[Goofyboy 3,293]

Biden could help his own cause by taking over the border situation from Kamala who is largely useless and incompetent 

And do what? The borders aren’t open. We have laws in place. Congress won’t pass shit on immigration and that’s where Biden’s messaging needs to be aimed.

[Biff Tannen 45,691]

41 minutes ago, 'stache said:

They are doing this, half the country's voters are immune. Messaging doesn't matter anymore. It's a coin flip whether the country gets to continue or if it ceases to exist. 

I'm halfway convinced that the R voters don't even know that politics actually matter.  As in, I'm not sure they understand cause and effect with their votes.  I feel like they think it is all just on TV and it's a big show for their entertainment.

[Js1 85,372]

30 minutes ago, Goofyboy said:

And do what? The borders aren’t open. We have laws in place. Congress won’t pass shit on immigration and that’s where Biden’s messaging needs to be aimed.

It’s such a losing issue, so why should he personally attach himself to it? Your VP’s job is to take that flack 

[6th Street 6,412]

If nothing else just come out and talk tough about the issue and say he's going to increase border security. That would help Joe's cause.

[mchookem 16,336]

i doubt that would make any difference on the right, but it would further piss off his left flank that is already pissed and ranting about our Israel support. i'm not sure there is a winning move on the issue, it's really no different than it's been for years, if not decades. 😕

[tx ind 7,013]

the only border policy the R's would like for Biden to push is a Hot Wheels type policy, anything else and it isn't enough

[Biff Tannen 45,691]

7 minutes ago, tx ind said:

the only border policy the R's would like for Biden to push is a Hot Wheels type policy, anything else and it isn't enough

He should go full on draconian crazy town border stuff like sharks with lazor guns on their heads and get the Dems to go along with it and then veto the shit out of it when it gets to his desk. I don’t know. Since none of this is serious anyway. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

 Went snowmobiling in Yellowstone West yesterday and the little old lady at the gift shop bragged on the $3 coasters I purchased while causally dropping how awesome it will be when we get rid of that Joe Biden. She said she was optimistic about 2024 and I said, “That makes one of us.”  Walked out the store thinking we are so fucked.

-CSB

[StassneyHorn 6,609]

The only immigration ads Biden should do is showing Republicans on Fox News telling the world we have open borders with a counter in the corner. Then cut to a black screen with crickets for Democrats who went on tv and did that.

[Biff Tannen 45,691]

30 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 Went snowmobiling in Yellowstone West yesterday and the little old lady at the gift shop bragged on the $3 coasters I purchased while causally dropping how awesome it will be when we get rid of that Joe Biden. She said she was optimistic about 2024 and I said, “That makes one of us.”  Walked out the store thinking we are so fucked.

-CSB

Wyoming has always been insane

[DaysOff 7,951]

The Biden campaign needs to run on those simple messages, pointing to actual words said by actual Republicans.
- they have already made women second class, expendable citizens by overruling Roe. It’s a matter of women’s lives and safety, and all the Republicans care about is finding more ways to prosecute women and make them suffer.
- they want to flat-out END social security,
- same with Medicare.
- they want to elect a man who has promised to be a vengeful dictator and end our democracy.
- they still won’t admit that they supported the attempted murder of our republic the first time, on January 6th.
- they stand on the side of our enemies: Russia, Iran, and North Korea, and oppose the allies who have stood by our side for decades, including 9/11. They turn our back on our friends, and buddy up to our enemies.
Because republicans don’t believe in or support America. But you don’t have to listen to me - listen to their own words, on every point above (play quote after quote).

The Lincoln Project will have to do all the heavy lifting for the Dems. Let's hope their ads this summer are killers.

[gmr548 16,580]

On 1/15/2024 at 2:29 PM, 6th Street said:

If nothing else just come out and talk tough about the issue and say he's going to increase border security. That would help Joe's cause.

You are talking about trying to appease a group that thinks building s 1,900+ mile wall is a good idea and that the country on the other side will pay for it.

[Js1 85,372]

6 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

You are talking about trying to appease a group that thinks building s 1,900+ mile wall is a good idea and that the country on the other side will pay for it.

Didn’t he already offer up more money for the border issue and the GOP said no?

[Js1 85,372]

Dems just flipped a FL statehouse seat 

More bad news for Biden and Dems in 2024

[tx ind 7,013]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Dems just flipped a FL statehouse seat 

More bad news for Biden and Dems in 2024

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/2024/01/16/democrat-keen-wins-state-house-35-special-election-over-gops-booth/
 

Spoiler

In a race seen as a bellwether for Democratic chances in November, Democrat Tom Keen flipped what had been a Republican state House seat in Central Florida in a special election held Tuesday.

Keen, a Navy flight officer who works in the aerospace training and simulation industry, defeated Republican Erika Booth, a teacher and member of the Osceola School Board. Unofficial totals for the District 35 seat had Keen with 51.3% of the vote to Booth’s 48.7%.

“A huge THANK YOU to all our supporters, volunteers, and voters who believed in our vision for a better, brighter District 35,” Keen wrote on social media. “Your dedication, hard work, and votes have brought us to this incredible moment.”

Keen, who made abortion rights and property insurance key issues in the race, got between 65% to 70% of nonpartisan, or NPA, voters to make up for Republicans turning out in larger numbers than Democrats, said Matt Isbell, a Democratic elections analyst.

“What actually clinched the win for Democrats was this massive margin with NPAs and perhaps some Republican moderates as well,” Isbell said. “If anything, this should be concerning for the GOP because it indicates a voter anger that maybe they have not understood.”

The special election for the district in eastern Orange and Osceola counties was triggered when former Republican state Rep. Fred Hawkins resigned last year to become president of South Florida State College in Highlands County.

The district has an almost even collection of Democrats, Republicans and independents.

The election was considered a test of whether Florida Democrats will be more competitive in 2024 following their blowout loss to Gov. Ron DeSantis in 2022, which swept in a GOP supermajority in both houses of the Legislature.

“This proves that Democrats can win close races in the Sunshine State,” said state House Democratic Leader Fentrice Driskell, D-Tampa, in a statement. “Florida is worth fighting for … Our work together has just begun.”

Keen canvassed with local Democratic stars U.S. Rep. Maxwell Frost and state Rep. Anna Eskamani, launched an ad targeting the GOP on abortion rights and mailed out flyers attacking Republicans on the property insurance crisis.

Booth, whose website stated that she would “protect our children from indoctrination” and crack down on illegal immigration, was backed by a state GOP campaign slamming Keen as a “radical,” including a website and television ads. Booth did not respond to repeated requests for interviews.

Mysterious text messages also were sent to Democrats from a supposed progressive group claiming Keen agreed with DeSantis on the controversial Parental Rights in Education Act, called ‘don’t say gay’ by its opponents. Keen has been a vocal critic of the law.

The group, Florida Committee for Progressive Values, listed Austin Hurst of Riverlake Boulevard in Bartow, Polk County, as its registered agent, chair and treasurer. According to state records, a Michael Austin Hurst is registered at that address as a Republican.

The Keen campaign compared the texts to the “ghost candidate” scandal of 2020, which involved three independent candidates who ran for competitive state Senate seats.

Candidates of both parties criticized Gov. Ron DeSantis for scheduling the special election 10 days into the 2024 legislative session, preventing the winner from attending key meetings and hearings and from introducing new bills. Another open seat in South Florida was filled in a special election in December.

Democrats claimed DeSantis set the election after the Iowa Republican presidential caucuses on Monday so if Democrats flipped the seat it would not embarrass him on the campaign trail.

DeSantis came in a distant second to former President Donald Trump in Iowa, losing by nearly 30 points, and trails both Trump and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in polling for the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 23.

The District 35 seat will be up again in November for a full two-year term

 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

This is what some repubs are saying now that it looks like Trump will get the nomination.

Quote

the oldest voters from 2020 have died especially from COVID

now, you will have a vast cohort of first time voters who were 10 years old when Trump took office. anyone think those are going to vote Trump by a majority!?!

add in Biden already has the largest war chest of money ever raised, and trump will not be getting mass amounts of big donor cash and money from DeSantis supporters.

GOP will lose the House and likely not gain the Senate as well with Trump at the top of the ticket. but at least they have good parties at Mar A Lago!

 

[mchookem 16,336]

[Mdhorn 5,969]

On 1/15/2024 at 2:17 PM, 'stache said:

They are doing this, half the country's voters are immune. Messaging doesn't matter anymore. It's a coin flip whether the country gets to continue or if it ceases to exist. 

Accountability is currently being actively vilified. Nothing their orange god or any Republicans tout benefits them at all.

And for immigration:

“When a stranger sojourns with you in your land, you shall not do him wrong. You shall treat the stranger who sojourns with you as the native among you, and you shall love him as yourself, for you were strangers in the land of Egypt: I am the Lord your God." Leviticus 19:33-34 

“When the Son of Man comes in his glory, and all the angels with him, then he will sit on his glorious throne. Before him will be gathered all the nations, and he will separate people one from another as a shepherd separates the sheep from the goats. And he will place the sheep on his right, but the goats on the left. Then the King will say to those on his right, ‘Come, you who are blessed by my Father, inherit the kingdom prepared for you from the foundation of the world. For I was hungry and you gave me food, I was thirsty and you gave me drink, I was a stranger and you welcomed me, ..."  Matthew 25: 31-46 

Anyways, there's a lot about immigration in the Bible, but what do I know, I'm a filthy heathen?  I'm of the mind to offer citizenship to those that qualify and broaden the tax base.  Regardless, Republican racism is the only unifying condition for their continued worship of their orange god.  

 

 

 

 

 

   

Edited January 17 by Mdhorn

[cactusflinthead 27,601]

 

[Brisketexan 105,154]

3 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

But that's not enough.  And he's old.

I guess I have to vote for the psychotic liar who promises to rule as a vindictive dictator.  I have no choice in the matter.

[Js1 85,372]

It was definitely more “do you remember the ecstasy of Trump losing?” 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

it's a tough thing to build a GOTV on.  memories of something that they've had the opportunity to whitewash for four years.  biden helps zero.  the only thing in D's favor is the passing of time.  2016 was 8 years ago.  a person's voting life if 60ish years.  that means 13% of folks that voted for him in 2016 aren't around any more.  6% of those from 2020.  just literally different humans selecting who to vote for.  and since the trump coalition was weighted toward olds, that helps biden.  the bad news is that there is general sliding, with fewer identifying as D and more identifying as R in recent times, which i think more than makes up for those deaths.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1078383/political-party-identification-in-the-us/

[Red Five 40,862]

14 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

But that's not enough.  And he's old.

I guess I have to vote for the psychotic liar who promises to rule as a vindictive dictator.  I have no choice in the matter.

Well to be fair, he will only act as a dictator on day one. Because that's what dictators are famous for, giving up their power voluntarily. 

[Chuckie Finster 22,696]

 

 

[StassneyHorn 6,609]

Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden tag-teaming the seedy banking and financial services industry

[Neonmoon 38,129]

New Poll. Weird