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Joe Biden 2024 thread - Dark Brandon Where Art Thou?

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Js1

Js1 85222

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LOL Kennedy is not getting 17%

It's not happening.  People are truly, 100%, doing anything to convince themselves it won't be Trump-Biden.  Taking that out in polls. 

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Js1

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P.S., Kamala Harris' appearance on The View today was so good.  

Even the Fox News panel was like "that was her best media appearance as VP, period." 

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gmr548

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21 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

This is what some repubs are saying now that it looks like Trump will get the nomination.
now, you will have a vast cohort of first time voters who were 10 years old when Trump took office. anyone think those are going to vote Trump by a majority!?!

 

I desperately wanted this to be incorrect but this will be true of at least some 18 year old voters. Not really a "massive cohort" but really the point is I feel old as fuck.

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6575

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Just stopping in to thank Joe Biden for assembling the world’s greatest economy ever seen, as S&P 500 closes at an all time high today. Unemployment at 3.7. Wages outgrowing inflation.

it just means more. Light a candle.

image.thumb.jpeg.389da51685bc1bc83380e1e62cd31699.jpeg

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89587

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On 1/17/2024 at 10:40 AM, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

it's a tough thing to build a GOTV on.  memories of something that they've had the opportunity to whitewash for four years.  biden helps zero.  the only thing in D's favor is the passing of time. 

Abortion.

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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GOP looking desperately for any sign that the economy is going into the shitter. They probably won’t find one.  Inflation is supposed to go down this year. Jobless claims report yesterday was the lowest in 16 months. Consumer sentiment has jumped massively the last 2 months.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45646

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On 1/17/2024 at 2:53 PM, Js1 said:

LOL Kennedy is not getting 17%

It's not happening.  People are truly, 100%, doing anything to convince themselves it won't be Trump-Biden.  Taking that out in polls. 

I really dont get it either. My “centrist” buddy is like this. Sends me texts about Nikki Haley and others, saying how they might have a chance at beating Trump. And then how it’s Dems to blame for not “playing the border issue right”, so Rs will win the general. 
 

It’s this bizarro idea that the GOP is nuts, but somehow that’s the Democrat’s fault. 

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45646

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22 hours ago, BeardIP said:

Leaders in Davos already assuming Trump wins the election.

But in a twist, that's actually good news for Biden, because apparently these vampires always get it wrong and the opposite usually happens.

From NYT:https://www.nytimes.com/section/business/dealbook

A little history: The Davos consensus was that Hillary Clinton would beat Trump in 2016. And in 2020, the prevailing view was that there were few risks to the economy … as the pandemic began to explode.

Well it’s a good thing we look to these thought wizards as financial leaders. 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89587

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So Iran and its proxies are ramping up attacks on American forces in Iraq, complete with Iranian ballistic missiles being used against an American base

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/20/politics/al-asad-air-base-iraq-us-personnel-injured/index.html

And it’s on top of Iran and Pakistan exchanging missile strikes.

It’s like Iran wants to help Biden.  I know Republicans privately won’t give a shit about American troops being injured because a Dem is in the White House,  but there’s probably going to be a resolution coming up in Congress soon and they’ll have to publicly support the troops.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45646

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8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

So Iran and its proxies are ramping up attacks on American forces in Iraq, complete with Iranian ballistic missiles being used against an American base

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/20/politics/al-asad-air-base-iraq-us-personnel-injured/index.html

And it’s on top of Iran and Pakistan exchanging missile strikes.

It’s like Iran wants to help Biden.  I know Republicans privately won’t give a shit about American troops being injured because a Dem is in the White House,  but there’s probably going to be a resolution coming up in Congress soon and they’ll have to publicly support the troops.

Yeah it seems like this shit is really escalating. Awesome. Fun stuff. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16569

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On 1/19/2024 at 3:51 PM, nbmishoid said:

Every interview shows or tells of some person who swears the economy sucks vs the trump years.  Depressing the willful ignorance.

Consumer sentiment just took the biggest two-month upward jump in my lifetime.

There's still a ways to go for people's perception to catch up to reality, there are of course legitimate structural economic issues to address, and the economy needs to hold up for 10 more months... But with all those caveats that's probably the best news the Biden 2024campaign has received to date.

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wackawacka

wackawacka 173

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1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

Consumer sentiment just took the biggest two-month upward jump in my lifetime.

There's still a ways to go for people's perception to catch up to reality, there are of course legitimate structural economic issues to address, and the economy needs to hold up for 10 more months... But with all those caveats that's probably the best news the Biden 2024campaign has received to date.

1234

Biden and Dems are likely to have a complete landslide win in 2024.

  • strong economy
  • divided Rs
  • wedge issue(s) motivating D and people switching tickets
  • olds dying off
  • corp money not wanting Donald
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gmr548

gmr548 16569

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2 minutes ago, wackawacka said:

1234

Biden and Dems are likely to have a complete landslide win in 2024.

  • strong economy
  • divided Rs
  • wedge issue(s) motivating D and people switching tickets
  • olds dying off
  • corp money not wanting Donald

We'll see. There's a path to victory and I certainly think the presumption that it will be Trump is very premature. 10 months is an eternity though and there is a real antipathy to Biden, justified or not.

Honestly it'll probably come down to a five figure margin across a couple different states as the past two have. Any time you're talking about margins that narrow at the tipping point it is basically a toss up.

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bolverk

bolverk 29621

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32 minutes ago, wackawacka said:

1234

Biden and Dems are likely to have a complete landslide win in 2024.

  • strong economy
  • divided Rs
  • wedge issue(s) motivating D and people switching tickets
  • olds dying off
  • corp money not wanting Donald

 

I hope you're right, but there's a shit-ton of international chaos being sown, which is, I think, the biggest wildcard in this game.

No telling how voters will respond to one message being engagement/help our allies and the other being retreat/isolationism.

  • Russia --> Ukraine/Europe
  • Iran/Hamas/Houthis --> Israel/Global Trade
  • North Korea --> South Korea/Japan
  • China --> Taiwan/South China Sea
  • Venezuela --> Guyana
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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38129

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Just saw CNN saying Biden is having trouble in Michigan polls. (Don’t know if true)

But it was astounding hearing them list of the things Biden has done for Michigan (unions, jobs, infrastructure) as opposed to Trump who accomplished jack and shit, yet they were supposedly leaning towards Trump. Leopard Eating Faces party indeed. 
 

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Guest

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Ain't no landslide anything. If there wasn't a landslide after four years of the other guy, there won't be one now.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45646

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1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

We'll see. There's a path to victory and I certainly think the presumption that it will be Trump is very premature. 10 months is an eternity though and there is a real antipathy to Biden, justified or not.

Honestly it'll probably come down to a five figure margin across a couple different states as the past two have. Any time you're talking about margins that narrow at the tipping point it is basically a toss up.

What pisses me off even more is that if dotard dies within the next 10 months, I think it would actually help usher in whatever R took his place as the nominee.  You'd have his insane base that would probably vote R to avenge him or something and then all the disaffected "former" Rs that are just itching for any excuse to yank that R lever again.  Dems would still turn out, but I just think the R voters are more full of piss and vinegar than Ds in general, because they are crazier.

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wackawacka

wackawacka 173

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1 hour ago, bolverk said:

 

I hope you're right, but there's a shit-ton of international chaos being sown, which is, I think, the biggest wildcard in this game.

No telling how voters will respond to one message being engagement/help our allies and the other being retreat/isolationism.

  • Russia --> Ukraine/Europe
  • Iran/Hamas/Houthis --> Israel/Global Trade
  • North Korea --> South Korea/Japan
  • China --> Taiwan/South China Sea
  • Venezuela --> Guyana

most voters don't care about int'l conflict imo.

as will and has been about the economy and their pocket book

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Dnaguy

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2 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

What pisses me off even more is that if dotard dies within the next 10 months, I think it would actually help usher in whatever R took his place as the nominee.  You'd have his insane base that would probably vote R to avenge him or something and then all the disaffected "former" Rs that are just itching for any excuse to yank that R lever again.  Dems would still turn out, but I just think the R voters are more full of piss and vinegar than Ds in general, because they are crazier.

 

The simulation will not allow for Trump to die.

He's what drives engagement / distracts us from our cryo-battery existence to supply our machine overlords the sweet, sweet energy that they need.

I imagine it's Terminator with no John Connor meets the Matrix with no Neo.

All the dystopia, no story arc, no archetypical hero, and nothing but Bill Murray's winter prediction in Groundhog's Day.

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89587

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9 hours ago, bolverk said:

I hope you're right, but there's a shit-ton of international chaos being sown, which is, I think, the biggest wildcard in this game.

The good news is that Trump is telling his supporters that the election is rigged against him, so there’s a a chance some will believe him and stay home.

And some of MAGA are fixated on RFK Jr.

8 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

What pisses me off even more is that if dotard dies within the next 10 months, I think it would actually help usher in whatever R took his place as the nominee.  You'd have his insane base that would probably vote R to avenge him or something and then all the disaffected "former" Rs that are just itching for any excuse to yank that R lever again.  Dems would still turn out, but I just think the R voters are more full of piss and vinegar than Ds in general, because they are crazier.

Nikki Haley would have a shot at beating Biden.  The never-Trumpers would jump on her being the candidate, and enough moderates/fence-sitters and MAGA would feel like “anybody but 100 year-old Biden” to pull the lever in the voting booth.  
 

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henrygandorf

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2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Nikki Haley would have a shot at beating Biden.  The never-Trumpers would jump on her being the candidate, and enough moderates/fence-sitters and MAGA would feel like “anybody but 100 year-old Biden” to pull the lever in the voting booth.  

right but all the maga crazies won’t turn out. shit, if haley beat trump (she won’t) they’d probably vote for biden to avenge him.

they’re gonna have to square that issue at some point. 

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Biff Tannen

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9 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

Nikki Haley would have a shot at beating Biden.  The never-Trumpers would jump on her being the candidate, and enough moderates/fence-sitters and MAGA would feel like “anybody but 100 year-old Biden” to pull the lever in the voting booth.  
 

Yep, I have a friend who is exactly this.  He won't outright say it, but he is exactly "anybody but 100 year-old Biden".  I think his real reasoning is taxes.

7 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

right but all the maga crazies won’t turn out. shit, if haley beat trump (she won’t) they’d probably vote for biden to avenge him.

they’re gonna have to square that issue at some point. 

And here is what people like him don't seem to understand.  It's dotard or no one because the the maga base will stay home if it's anyone else and the Rs will lose badly.  They made their bed, now they must lie in it.

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atomheartbevo

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7 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

right but all the maga crazies won’t turn out. shit, if haley beat trump (she won’t) they’d probably vote for biden to avenge him.

they’re gonna have to square that issue at some point. 

1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

And here is what people like him don't seem to understand.  It's dotard or no one because the the maga base will stay home if it's anyone else and the Rs will lose badly.  They made their bed, now they must lie in it.

Quite the conundrum.  Trump couldn't win in 2020 with MAGA turning out in record numbers (many of whom hadn't voted in 2016 showed up). and MAGA could push any (R) over the finish line, and Nikki could pull in a shitload of people who don't care for Trump or Biden, but MAGA will only support Trump.

And toss in abortion to the mix.

 

 

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27597

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3 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i'm not nearly as sunny as you guys are.  everything was saying biden +4 and 5 in 2020, things like +7 and +8 in Michigan, WI, MN, and we got a nail biter.  now it's all trump +1.

Show your work. Cite some polls 

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13488

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7 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i'm not nearly as sunny as you guys are.  everything was saying biden +4 and 5 in 2020, things like +7 and +8 in Michigan, WI, MN, and we got a nail biter.  now it's all trump +1.

The majority of the public is not interested in the 2024 race yet, so there is no reason for Biden to hype all of the positives with his administration. You also have to thread the needle in saying what a great job you did while not alienating voters who are not thriving.

The main message out there right now is how Biden has ruined America but they never have any accurate facts.

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29187

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13 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i'm not nearly as sunny as you guys are.  everything was saying biden +4 and 5 in 2020, things like +7 and +8 in Michigan, WI, MN, and we got a nail biter.  now it's all trump +1.

polls never get settled until it's 1 on 1.  i know for all practical purposes, it's trump, but it's not officially trump yet.

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Red Five

Red Five 40777

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5 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

polls never get settled until it's 1 on 1.  i know for all practical purposes, it's trump, but it's not officially trump yet.

I keep hearing that a large number of voters don't even realize yet that Trump is going to be the nominee.

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11669

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re:show my work.  

 

i agree with jimmyjazz and don't know myself why i cited the polls.  we're just all educated folks and addicted to numbers as the ultimate arbiter of truth.  even though the polls sucked ass 2016, 2018 and 2020.

but this was the common feeling going into the election 2020: 

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020?&page=2

Biden +5 PA, +2 AZ, +2 OH, +8 MI, + 8 WI.  

That added up to 538 saying Biden with 400+ EV as the most likely result.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

 

anyhow, i didn't think it was a controversial post.  i feel like this whole board went into the election confident last time and ended up chewing our nails off.

 

but eddie and HG are right.  even what little faith i have in polls now, i should have even less when we don't have the matchup figured out yet.

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Js1

Js1 85222

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27 minutes ago, Red Five said:

I keep hearing that a large number of voters don't even realize yet that Trump is going to be the nominee.

Oh please, a large number are delusional enough right now to believe it somehow won't be Biden or Trump.

 

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Js1

Js1 85222

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27 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

re:show my work.  

 

i agree with jimmyjazz and don't know myself why i cited the polls.  we're just all educated folks and addicted to numbers as the ultimate arbiter of truth.  even though the polls sucked ass 2016, 2018 and 2020.

but this was the common feeling going into the election 2020: 

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020?&page=2

Biden +5 PA, +2 AZ, +2 OH, +8 MI, + 8 WI.  

That added up to 538 saying Biden with 400+ EV as the most likely result.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

 

anyhow, i didn't think it was a controversial post.  i feel like this whole board went into the election confident last time and ended up chewing our nails off.

 

but eddie and HG are right.  even what little faith i have in polls now, i should have even less when we don't have the matchup figured out yet.

Please do not forget 2020 was a massive non-responsive bias by Trump voters.  Biden voters were more likely to be home and answer the phone during lockdowns.  Trump voters didn't give a shit about things like staying home.

We had the exact opposite in 2022-23 - non-response bias by Biden voters/Dems and that's why the red wave was a trickle. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16569

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21 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

What pisses me off even more is that if dotard dies within the next 10 months, I think it would actually help usher in whatever R took his place as the nominee.  You'd have his insane base that would probably vote R to avenge him or something and then all the disaffected "former" Rs that are just itching for any excuse to yank that R lever again.  Dems would still turn out, but I just think the R voters are more full of piss and vinegar than Ds in general, because they are crazier.

If Trump were to die before the election his base would think the deep state killed him and I have no idea what they would do beyond get grifted by Don Jr and crew. I don't mean that in only terms of voting, I mean there would be tens of millions of loose cannons, cult members without a leader. I would expect violence. I think you're way too in the box here.

Electorally, who knows. The timing would be really important given the logistics of getting other names on the ballot. Rs might suffer depressed turnout on the MAGA side but Haley could pull center right voters from the Biden coalition. It's a low probability event so not going to waste a ton of time on in.

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Red Five

Red Five 40777

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5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Oh please, a large number are delusional enough right now to believe it somehow won't be Biden or Trump.

 

Yeah, but this refers to the people who vote but don't follow politics, and legit don't know it's gonna be Trump. I do not personally know anyone like this.

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