Joe Biden 2024 thread - Dark Brandon Where Art Thou?

[David Dennison 18823]

NM

Edited August 30 by David Dennison

[troph 24762]

2 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

 

There is a fairly large group of people out there that don't feel like everything is great.  

Costs aren’t Republican or democrat. And the US has managed inflation an order of magnitude better than the rest of the world, while both sides printed money to avoid absolute extreme economic calamity. 

the idea that we have to blame someone is maybe the worst part of the whole thing. I don’t blame Trump for the Covid deficits anymore than I blame Biden for inflation that was baked in. I do care about what we do about it once it’s here and policy makers have brought inflation down. Now what’s left is absorbing the past increases while we look toward stable prices in the future. Why is that a partisan thing? Really. 

[Biff Tannen 45646]

1 hour ago, G650 said:

It's funny, our investment banker always calls us his canary in the coal mine. I've mentioned before, but I'm in housing development, which is the leadingest of all leading indicators, and he always asks me how our backlog is as one of his main data points. We have had several very good years, and now it's to the point we are having to turn down serious amounts of work from even some of our best and longest term clients.

 

1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

This.  I think you’re in construction, so just downstream from where I am, but I can’t take on many of the clients trying to hire me now.  There is such a shortage of housing that homebuilders are really trying to get ahead and build some lot inventory.  
 

Couple that with the trend of NIMBYism moving across suburbs in Texas (don’t laugh, I promise it’s real) and housing is still set to increase in pricing.  We’re literally not making headway on housing shortages because, despite what most people things, it’s really hard to produce new developments.

 

1 hour ago, G650 said:

Yep, I'm a site contractor.

 

And 100% this. I have told people for years I have zero confidence that housing policy in this country will improve in my lifetime.

And one of Harris' main platforms so far is to massively expand the supply of housing.  So good news for you guys right?

[wildcat09 29323]

10 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

There is a fairly large group of people out there that don't feel like everything is great.  

That has been the case for literally every single second the United States of America has existed. Republican policies exacerbate the problems that contribute to those feelings, Democratic policies (usually) ameliorate them.  

Edited August 30 by wildcat09

['stache 21786]

“Yeah but, muh feels.” -Ana

Edited August 30 by 'stache

[G650 14211]

5 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

 

 

And one of Harris' main platforms so far is to massively expand the supply of housing.  So good news for you guys right?

I am all about it. Probably best thing I've heard her say.

 

The thing about it is, there is such chronic demand, we are always good, I really care a lot more about housing policy as it affects our country and citizenry than the personal impact it has on me and my company.

[troph 24762]

In housing too not like G650 but we won’t take the financial risk, shifted to custom work not doing specs and but for 3 spec projects in waiting (haven’t broken ground) we may be out of it for good. 

doesn’t change my views or what I’ve heard in my conversations.

[G650 14211]

I mean the fucked up housing policy is a huge inflation driver right now. PCE just came out at .2%. Take out housing? .1%.

[troph 24762]

3 minutes ago, G650 said:

I mean the fucked up housing policy is a huge inflation driver right now. PCE just came out at .2%. Take out housing? .1%.

local housing policy… affordable? density? NIMBY.

[Longhornfan1024 1707]

12 hours ago, Anastasis said:

But think about all the engagement!

 

My initial comment was benign and personally experienced. When some of you take a breath and touch grass, you will come to grips with the real life sentiments of Americans  outside the toxic political pond. Granted, it will probably be after Nov 2024. 

Ana in here making 10 posts per page and he's telling other people to touch grass.  

[Bojack 2073]

3 minutes ago, Longhornfan1024 said:

Ana in here making 10 posts per page and he's telling other people to touch grass.  

But he's adding to his almost 30,000 posts, mostly in the CR, many of them full of petty insults, while he strolls through fields of ripe wheat.

[wildcat09 29323]

38 minutes ago, Bojack said:

But he's adding to his almost 30,000 posts, mostly in the CR, many of them full of petty insults, while he strolls through fields of ripe wheat.

Presumably while drinking alone on a Thursday evening. 

[YChang 3440]

I just don’t understand the satisfaction from being such a malcontent all the damn time. I know it may be ann unpopular but it’s not as if he doesn’t have a point sometimes, but he’s just so damn unlikeable. 

[TexasEd 8066]

14 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

If things are so bad, then why has “stubborn” consumer spending managed to drive economic growth 3% this quarter? 

Data:  3% growth

Sentiment: 3 of 5 people think we're in a recession because Fox and Trump keep telling them we are.

[Jiggy-Z 3432]

1 hour ago, troph said:

Costs aren’t Republican or democrat. And the US has managed inflation an order of magnitude better than the rest of the world, while both sides printed money to avoid absolute extreme economic calamity. 

the idea that we have to blame someone is maybe the worst part of the whole thing. I don’t blame Trump for the Covid deficits anymore than I blame Biden for inflation that was baked in. I do care about what we do about it once it’s here and policy makers have brought inflation down. Now what’s left is absorbing the past increases while we look toward stable prices in the future. Why is that a partisan thing? Really. 

While there are some things that administrations like to take credit for that they really have nothing to do with and also bad things that are thrust upon them, I will disagree somewhat with a few examples of both in no particular order.

Clinton was the beneficiary of the peace dividend and a stingy congress.   All he had to do was stay the course and ride the high.

Carter and Obama were handed absolute shit sandwiches.

Bush II absolutely had something to do witht he 2007 crash, even though deregulation over the previous 25 years was the main culprit.

The Trump tax cut was absolutely a bad idea given that the economy was already recovering and guess what, we sure could have had a more effective stimulus for covid had we not done the tax cut not to mention all the magical thinking that went on wrt to covid.

Im kind of rambling, but I hope you get the idea.

[troph 24762]

1 minute ago, Jiggy-Z said:

While there are some things that administrations like to take credit for that they really have nothing to do with and also bad things that are thrust upon them, I will disagree somewhat with a few examples of both in no particular order.

Clinton was the beneficiary of the peace dividend and a stingy congress.   All he had to do was stay the course and ride the high.

Carter and Obama were handed absolute shit sandwiches.

Bush II absolutely had something to do witht he 2007 crash, even though deregulation over the previous 25 years was the main culprit.

The Trump tax cut was absolutely a bad idea given that the economy was already recovering and guess what, we sure could have had a more effective stimulus for covid had we not done the tax cut not to mention all the magical thinking that went on wrt to covid.

Im kind of rambling, but I hope you get the idea.

those are fair points and not unlike feeling like the economy is rigged against you there are certainly decades of policy to complain about, but the partisan nature of bickering to me is a distraction when it comes to systemic problems that need to be addressed. but with respect to the covid deficits and high inflation, really wtf was to be done? no one knew, the world shut down because no one knew what in the hell this Covid 19 thing was going to be. shit it's still and unknown quantity unlike any other respo virus we deal with, so the shut down happened. was stimulus needed uh yeah, then everyone blames trump for job loses and deficits. that's pretty much bullshit to me. then biden does another round, he gets blamed then inflation is laid at his feet. all bullshit. could policy makers and elected officials do better, sure. do they have their input and responsibility for econcomic outcomes, yes to an extent, but you and I both know our politics is full 100% blame game and that's just silly.

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

14 hours ago, immamac said:

If your friends can't understand how they have more money and can do more shit and buy nicer shit and buy more of that nicer shit think they are worse off they are in fact stupid by every measure. 

 

Not in the tech industry.  Ask me how I know.

 

Quote

The wave of layoffs in the tech industry shows no signs of slowing down in 2024. After significant workforce reductions by tech companies throughout 2022 and 2023, the sector continues to see both major and minor job cuts this year. According to independent layoffs tracker Layoffs.fyi, as of August 30, 2024, 422 tech companies have laid off 136,782 employees

https://www.msn.com/en-in/money/topstories/tech-layoffs-continue-big-tech-companies-like-apple-microsoft-fired-hundreds-of-employees-in-august-2024/ar-AA1pHeAW

[immamac 42789]

Hundreds of jobs!!! Thousands of layoffs!! 

This is minor. We aren't even mid 5 digits in total layoffs vs the new jobs they are reallocating for hiring. 

It sucks, but the tech industry isn't the only thing around and even then it's still relatively historically low unemployment

['stache 21786]

34 minutes ago, YChang said:

I just don’t understand the satisfaction from being such a malcontent all the damn time. I know it may be ann unpopular but it’s not as if he doesn’t have a point sometimes, but he’s just so damn unlikeable. 

He's either intentionally dishonest to get a rise out of people or has truly fallen for right wing manipulation on the economy. Either way, he's an idiot and a troll on most topics. Worry about the economy on day to day Americans (i.e., the stock market only matters to the wealthy) is usually a left wing talking point when stock portfolios are thriving and people still can't afford homes or healthcare. The right only pretends to care when a democrat is in office. They have no real values or opinions on anything anymore except cut taxes for the rich and distract with wedge issues like trans people and Mexican "caravans." 

[YChang 3440]

21 minutes ago, MC Fresh Breath said:

 

Not in the tech industry.  Ask me how I know.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-in/money/topstories/tech-layoffs-continue-big-tech-companies-like-apple-microsoft-fired-hundreds-of-employees-in-august-2024/ar-AA1pHeAW

That sucks MC... times like this I appreciate working in one of the more mature tech companies. 

[jimmyjazz 45826]

23 minutes ago, troph said:

but with respect to the covid deficits and high inflation, really wtf was to be done? no one knew, the world shut down because no one knew what in the hell this Covid 19 thing was going to be. shit it's still and unknown quantity unlike any other respo virus we deal with, so the shut down happened. 

Beyond that, Trump slow-played the response.  Yes, there was an effort to develop a vaccine that some manufacturers participated in, but after that the rollout was flawed.  Biden fixed that as best he could, but some damage was done.  The economic effects were amplified because of Trump.

[pearlandhorn 3269]

2 hours ago, 'stache said:

“Yeah but, muh feels.” -Ana

Can we exclude government jobs too?

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

13 minutes ago, YChang said:

That sucks MC... times like this I appreciate working in one of the more mature tech companies. 

Thanks for the kindness Sorry, I haven't been let go as of yet. but the rumor mill is heavy and i have seen a lot get hit.  all the companies i listed (and the one I work for) are pretty mature.   ima is correct in that the tech industry isn't everybody, but my point was that people who are feeling pain are not idiots to feel that pain.  

and the broader point is GDP growth and stock market values and low wage job creation isn't 'the economy' for the working class. outside of political forums people don't care about how the economy is doing for the wealthy.  before i get lambasted again, let me say i'm not blaming Biden for any of it.  Just wouldn't use 'economy is great' as a talking point imo.  would go more towards the "i feel your pain" message if it were me.

Edited August 30 by MC Fresh Breath

[Sawbonz 27514]

2 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

 

There is a fairly large group of people out there that don't feel like everything is great.  

And I would just ask what republican policies will help short or long term?

continued (and worsening) deficit spending under republican administrations weakens the dollar, worsening inflation

 

Giving preferential treatment to billionaires and corporations widens the gap between the haves and have nots

 

Systematically dismantling public education puts our future workers at a huge disadvantage 

 

allowing healthcare costs to continue to spiral keeps working families from being able to do more than tread water (see corporate protectionism)

How is getting rid of Medicare and SS going to help?

what solutions does the Party of Trump offer?

[Brisketexan 104915]

22 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

And I would just ask what republican policies will help short or long term?

continued (and worsening) deficit spending under republican administrations weakens the dollar, worsening inflation

 

Giving preferential treatment to billionaires and corporations widens the gap between the haves and have nots

 

Systematically dismantling public education puts our future workers at a huge disadvantage 

 

allowing healthcare costs to continue to spiral keeps working families from being able to do more than tread water (see corporate protectionism)

How is getting rid of Medicare and SS going to help?

what solutions does the Party of Trump offer?

Weren't you paying attention?  Just yesterday, Trump said he was going to end inflation, and bring grocery prices way down!

Sure, he didn't say HOW.   But he said that.  He also promised that math class would be replaced by recess every day, and the school cafeteria would serve pizza and ice cream all five days of the week, for free.  So, he's got my vote!

[hornmpa96 2618]

19 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Weren't you paying attention?  Just yesterday, Trump said he was going to end inflation, and bring grocery prices way down!

Sure, he didn't say HOW.   But he said that.  He also promised that math class would be replaced by recess every day, and the school cafeteria would serve pizza and ice cream all five days of the week, for free.  So, he's got my vote!

2 Weeks!

[David Dennison 18823]

1 hour ago, MC Fresh Breath said:

Thanks for the kindness Sorry, I haven't been let go as of yet. but the rumor mill is heavy and i have seen a lot get hit.  all the companies i listed (and the one I work for) are pretty mature.   ima is correct in that the tech industry isn't everybody, but my point was that people who are feeling pain are not idiots to feel that pain.  

and the broader point is GDP growth and stock market values and low wage job creation isn't 'the economy' for the working class. outside of political forums people don't care about how the economy is doing for the wealthy.  before i get lambasted again, let me say i'm not blaming Biden for any of it.  Just wouldn't use 'economy is great' as a talking point imo.  would go more towards the "i feel your pain" message if it were me.

If it isn't great, it's definitely good, especially compared to peer nations.

A lot of the current dissatisfaction sounds like run-of-the-mill hand-wringing by a largely spoiled American middle class that every so often is forced to reckon with the unpleasant reality that it is not immune from the vicissitudes of capitalism.

Edited August 30 by David Dennison

[jimmyjazz 45826]

1 hour ago, MC Fresh Breath said:

and the broader point is GDP growth and stock market values and low wage job creation isn't 'the economy' for the working class.

There is truth in this.  People on a paycheck to paycheck existence are feeling the pain of 20% higher food prices.  Energy tends to fluctuate, but gasoline is still up.  These are real effects on people whose wages haven't completely caught up to expenses.

[Sawbonz 27514]

1 hour ago, pearlandhorn said:

Can we exclude government jobs too?

If you can back them out and post a graph knock yourself out

 

but that argument presupposes that government jobs aren’t necessary which is farcical 

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

13 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

If it isn't great, it's definitely good, especially compared to peer nations.

A lot of the current dissatisfaction sounds like run-of-the-mill hand-wringing by a largely spoiled American middle class that every so often is forced to reckon with the unpleasant reality that it is not immune from the vicissitudes of capitalism.

US voters don't care about comparisons to peer nations.  And spoiled is sure an interesting way to put things.  I do think there is a spoiled class but maybe not the one you're discussing.  I'm also not sure I'm far apart from you though.  The issue is indeed late stage capitalism.  No good answers there unfortunately that I can see.   And again not specific to Biden (nor countered by any candidate) so I should shut up. 

[Sawbonz 27514]

4 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

There is truth in this.  People on a paycheck to paycheck existence are feeling the pain of 20% higher food prices.  Energy tends to fluctuate, but gasoline is still up.  These are real effects on people whose wages haven't completely caught up to expenses.

And that’s why I’m voting for Donald J Trump

He’s going to raise the minimum wage

He’s going to fight noncompetes that don’t clearly protect IP or involve C suite positions

He’s going to increase the ability of workers to bargain collectively for higher wages and safer conditions 

He’s going to strengthen EPA and OSHA

He's going to push for paid family leave and child care

He’s going to raise taxes on corporations and people making >400k

 

 

[jimmyjazz 45826]

9 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

And that’s why I’m voting for Donald J Trump

Well, yeah.

[StassneyHorn 6575]

2 hours ago, pearlandhorn said:

Can we exclude government jobs too?

No, why? They’re the most important

[bolverk 29620]

2 hours ago, pearlandhorn said:

Can we exclude government jobs too?

Sure, we can do a quick and easy analysis on this. All data below are pulled from the Bureau of Labor Statistics website for private-sector employment.

Same data as above in a spreadsheet:

When Trump took over the job in January 2017, there were 123.3 million private sector jobs in the US. When he left office in January 2021, there were 121.1 million. This represented a 1.8 percent decline in private sector employment (total loss of 2.2 million jobs) during his four full years as president. Overall, that would be a loss of 45,700 private sector jobs per month on average during Trump's full term.

While many might argue that TRUMP can justifiably take the blame for the poor response, we'll be generous and look at what happened before Covid hit. During that time (set of yellow columns on the left), total private sector employment increased by 5.0%, creating 6.1 million jobs in 39 months (157,000 private jobs per month).

When Biden took over the job in January 2021, there were 121.1 million private sector jobs in the US. As of July 2024 (the latest month for which data are available), there were 136.4 million jobs. This represents an 11.8% increase in private-sector employment (a total gain of 14.3 million jobs) during his less-than-full term as president. Overall, that would be a gain of 339,400 jobs per month on average during Biden's partial term.

Now, let's look at private-sector employment under BIDEN, focusing solely on private-sector employment AFTER the full recovery of the Covid job market (defined here as the first month in which total private-sector employment surpassed pre-Covid levels in April 2022). From that point to the present (set of yellow columns to the right), total private sector employment increased by 4.5% or 5.8 million jobs in 27 months (215,800 private sector jobs per month). 

So, if we're going to look at each president's impact on private sector employment and fully attribute job changes to them outside of Covid, then @pearlandhorn Biden's policies are still clearly superior.

 

Source: https://www.bls.gov/data/#employment

Edited August 30 by bolverk

[StassneyHorn 6575]

But he feels strongly that’s he’s right

Edited August 30 by StassneyHorn

[troph 24762]

3 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Beyond that, Trump slow-played the response.  Yes, there was an effort to develop a vaccine that some manufacturers participated in, but after that the rollout was flawed.  Biden fixed that as best he could, but some damage was done.  The economic effects were amplified because of Trump.

nuanced criticisms are fine but blaming him for job losses and deficit spending because of covid shut downs is bullshit. same on biden, inflation isn't his fault. now criticisms on how they actually handled matters is different.

[troph 24762]

3 hours ago, MC Fresh Breath said:

Thanks for the kindness Sorry, I haven't been let go as of yet. but the rumor mill is heavy and i have seen a lot get hit.  all the companies i listed (and the one I work for) are pretty mature.   ima is correct in that the tech industry isn't everybody, but my point was that people who are feeling pain are not idiots to feel that pain.  

and the broader point is GDP growth and stock market values and low wage job creation isn't 'the economy' for the working class. outside of political forums people don't care about how the economy is doing for the wealthy.  before i get lambasted again, let me say i'm not blaming Biden for any of it.  Just wouldn't use 'economy is great' as a talking point imo.  would go more towards the "i feel your pain" message if it were me.

the impact of inflation is still on going even if the number is lower and in acceptable range. that does not change the fact that prices rose for 2 years at a painfully high clip. yes, lower income, middle income families it's not easy. I'm not sure anyone will dispute that. But inflation is now well under control and unemployment is low on macro levels so looking forward things seem to be looking good, now a recession could be looming and I'm sure can find someone to singularly blame for that.

[Js1 85222]

44 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

But he feels strongly that’s he’s right

[bolverk 29620]

37 minutes ago, troph said:

the impact of inflation is still on going even if the number is lower and in acceptable range. that does not change the fact that prices rose for 2 years at a painfully high clip. yes, lower income, middle income families it's not easy. I'm not sure anyone will dispute that. But inflation is now well under control and unemployment is low on macro levels so looking forward things seem to be looking good, now a recession could be looming and I'm sure can find someone to singularly blame for that.

Looking at the same dataset for private-sector hourly wages, we still have some work to do but we're not far from the peak wages of July 2020 when many people weren't willing to work, and therefore severe labor shortages were present.

I've applied the BLS's inflation calculator to hourly wages to adjust them for the most recent month that data are available (July 2024).

As we can see, average hourly wages are still short 60 cents per hour (translating to $1,200 per year) from the peak. But if we look over at the annual percent and dollar change in the columns to the right, we see that the toll of inflation on wages occurred during the Covid recovery (2021-2022). Since then, the typical private-sector worker has been making real wage gains. It does indeed suck, but we're getting there.

One thing that people also might not be taking into account was the big stimulus checks people were receiving even when they had the luxury of working at home and remaining fully employed. Those of us who were in that fortunate position likely were feeling really flush with cash as wages were rising while receiving what amounted to bonuses from the government.

So, I can see how someone could have the false impression that they're that much further behind because they're only looking back at their bank statements (with the government checks) from then. 

[StassneyHorn 6575]

2 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

No, why? They’re the most important

In a real sickening turn of events, @fattyflattie laughs in the face of firefighters, police officers, linemen, custodial engineers, teachers, and our utilities workers.

Grotesque, disgusting, immature, slanderous.

Edited August 30 by StassneyHorn

[Sawbonz 27514]

3 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

But he feels strongly that’s he’s right

Your feelings don’t care about facts

[Anastasis 23446]

9 hours ago, YChang said:

I just don’t understand the satisfaction from being such a malcontent all the damn time. I know it may be ann unpopular but it’s not as if he doesn’t have a point sometimes, but he’s just so damn unlikeable. 

Sorry. I am not particularly interested in making you like me. But if you go back to the post that originated this exchange, read the immediate responses and still think that it is my online persona that is problematic...well, goodbye and good luck. 

[Anastasis 23446]

10 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

 

There is a fairly large group of people out there that don't feel like everything is great.  

Crazy talk and unacceptable to the CR brain trust. 

[Incredulity 11617]

15 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Crazy talk and unacceptable to the CR brain trust. 

Big lots is probably filing BK

Either Walgreens or CVS are going to end up insolvent in the next 12 months.  The Kroger/Albertsons deal is a rescue of Albertsons that is going to get nuked by FTC(combining them isn’t remotely good for competition in many markets so probably should be denied)

Basically the consumer is pulling back and there will be blood.

[Bozo_Casanova 26407]

16 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Big lots is probably filing BK

Either Walgreens or CVS are going to end up insolvent in the next 12 months

Bumble, too

[Brisketexan 104915]

Bumble, too

But not Grindr.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11815]

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

Crazy talk and unacceptable to the CR brain trust. 

You missed the part about shares decreasing.  There’s where you fall down.  The American middle class isn’t fucking shares, sure, they have some stake in retirement accounts.  But they want wages, and equivalent earnings, nobody in that sector gives a fuck about anything this guy is talking about.  They want money.  

[StassneyHorn 6575]

Dollar General states they want the bottom 15% of US households according to income (>35k), then they complain about how the consumers don’t have money to spend. They’re a fucking clown show that put up stores and expanded everywhere in neighborhoods that didn’t make sense and they are fucked in the future.

[Anastasis 23446]

e

16 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

You missed the part about shares decreasing.  There’s where you fall down.  The American middle class isn’t fucking shares, sure, they have some stake in retirement accounts.  But they want wages, and equivalent earnings, nobody in that sector gives a fuck about anything this guy is talking about.  They want money.  

Thanks for chiming in with some right out frontier gibberish.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11815]

3 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

e

Thanks for chiming in with some right out frontier gibberish.

Sure.  Tell me why Cletus should care that Dollar General overextended itself and is not meeting shareholder expectations when all he needs is some one dollar steaks and shitty toilet paper.  We can do better, and we can do it at the expense of shareholders.  Frontier gibberish indeed.  You are the one muddling up democracy.  Shit or get off the pot, brother.