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2024 Rain Thread: All Your El Nino Are Belong to Us


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Posted
On 4/16/2024 at 12:14 PM, NorthLoop said:

So from Georgetown to Waco will flood. Austin will get a few sprinkles. San Marcos will flood. NB will get farted on, and not the wet kind. 

 

Sound about right, @Wilcox Cummingtonite?

I’ve been watching the forecasted QPF precip totals drop all week…my guess is a broken line of storms along tomorrow’s front that peters out as it moves east then reforms once past us (as per usual). We might get 0.25-0.5”. Everywhere north and east of Austin gets bukkaked as always.

In other words, you are spot on sir.

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Posted (edited)
53 minutes ago, troph said:

Why can’t we have nice things too? 
 

 

IMG_4608.jpeg

Rage-inducing watching DFW/NTX get flooded time after time while every promising forecast busts here. Even worse, it’s going to set up east and southeast of us this evening- probably another flood for Houston.
 

Mets of NWS Austin/SA, at some point you gotta admit defeat and realize that forecasting rainfall in our area without sufficient upper air balloon data from eastern Mexico is a total crapshoot. The QPF models are trash until about a day before.
 

Clearly something is going on in the mid levels (prob dry air coming off Mexican highlands) that washes out every system to nothing but clouds and drizzle while areas north and east get bukkake deluxe rainfall. 

Edited by Wilcox Cummingtonite
Posted
Not great but not surprising.
 
UTRWD is currently building one, Ralph Hall, just a stones throw from Bois D'Arc. There are quite a few reservoir projects both conventional and off channel included in the regional water plans from the last cycle. I anticipate we see quite a few going in over the next three decades
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Posted

Radar is looking better. Starting to proper rain in areas on the city. That rain up north is slowly moving down this way, and storms south are migrating north to us. We may actually get something! Or I may be smoking the bad weed today.

Posted
1 minute ago, boknowstecmo said:

Radar is looking better. Starting to proper rain in areas on the city. That rain up north is slowly moving down this way, and storms south are migrating north to us. We may actually get something! Or I may be smoking the bad weed today.

GIF by South Park

Posted
16 hours ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

I’ve been watching the forecasted QPF precip totals drop all week…my guess is a broken line of storms along tomorrow’s front that peters out as it moves east then reforms once past us (as per usual). We might get 0.25-0.5”. Everywhere north and east of Austin gets bukkaked as always.

In other words, you are spot on sir.

It's following the playbook perfectly 

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Posted

Won’t do much on its own but a lot of  .75-1 inch totals where it’s needed. Need a LOT more. Maybe we get more next week…? 
 

 

IMG_4618.jpeg

Posted (edited)

I think almost all of Waco Surly lives in the suburbs of the south side, but this storm seems like it had a long track.

Screenshot2024-04-26132052.png.0d6a2b6f6e22b1de7af378e8e9b1c43d.png

 

 

 

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Also from the airport

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Edited by SimonBolivar
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Posted

Wow. Thanks for posting. In Hewitt just a sprinkle. I did get an update from Midway that my kids were sheltering in place.  

Hopefully we get some this evening.  

Posted
31 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

Wow. Thanks for posting. In Hewitt just a sprinkle. I did get an update from Midway that my kids were sheltering in place.  

Hopefully we get some this evening.  

My wife is a teacher at WISD that was far from the China Spring area but they still had to shelter in place when the sirens went off and she had kids telling her, "If I die tell my parents that I loved them." Kids today are so much more aware of their mortality than I was as a 2nd grader.

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Posted
12 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

My wife is a teacher at WISD that was far from the China Spring area but they still had to shelter in place when the sirens went off and she had kids telling her, "If I die tell my parents that I loved them." Kids today are so much more aware of their mortality than I was as a 2nd grader.

30 min later that kid pulled out his iphone 15 and marked himself safe on facebook. 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

30 min later that kid pulled out his iphone 15 and marked himself safe on facebook. 

More likely to punch their teacher in the face in 30 minutes than pull out a top-of-the-line phone at her school, but hey no student loan payments after however many years for my wife so totally worth it. /s

Posted
36 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

My wife is a teacher at WISD that was far from the China Spring area but they still had to shelter in place when the sirens went off and she had kids telling her, "If I die tell my parents that I loved them." Kids today are so much more aware of their mortality than I was as a 2nd grader.

I hate that so much. My kids do lockdown drills every month.   

 

Posted
38 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

30 min later that kid pulled out his iphone 15 and marked himself safe on facebook yanked it to an onlyfans video of his teacher.

Well, it was almost certainly some other teacher. 

Posted
1 hour ago, SimonBolivar said:

I'm assuming this storm that has been sitting over San Saba County for an hour and is still moving incredibly slowly is a good thing for y'alls lakes?

 

Screenshot2024-04-26155518.thumb.png.46cebde0ab9c8188de95c06c05e3cece.png

Results...

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Posted
1 hour ago, SimonBolivar said:

I'm assuming this storm that has been sitting over San Saba County for an hour and is still moving incredibly slowly is a good thing for y'alls lakes?

 

Screenshot2024-04-26155518.thumb.png.46cebde0ab9c8188de95c06c05e3cece.png

Sadly, no.  I mean, any rain is better than nothing, but this won't make even a tiny dent in the lakes.  It would have to be roughly 10x this amount, across an area about 10x wider, and over 10x as many days, to move the needle on the lakes.  Unfortunately, not really exaggerating there.

 

image.thumb.png.3264e0a39cbb25f8749bc7566287b4c0.png

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Posted
15 hours ago, utee94 said:

Sadly, no.  I mean, any rain is better than nothing, but this won't make even a tiny dent in the lakes.  It would have to be roughly 10x this amount, across an area about 10x wider, and over 10x as many days, to move the needle on the lakes.  Unfortunately, not really exaggerating there.

 

image.thumb.png.3264e0a39cbb25f8749bc7566287b4c0.png

 

Or one good 19" rain bomb 

Posted
19 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

It’ll rain next weekend because I’m going camping then, but you don’t need to thank me.

I canceled a backpacking trip to Colorado bend today so it god damn get lit up tonight and tomorrow morning. This is 3 out of the last 4 years I’ve been rained out in April at Colorado Bend. Getting a little tired of it. 

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Posted
41 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I canceled a backpacking trip to Colorado bend today so it god damn get lit up tonight and tomorrow morning. This is 3 out of the last 4 years I’ve been rained out in April at Colorado Bend. Getting a little tired of it. 

Thank you for your sacrifice.

Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Not a chance that line out west holds together overnight. Outflow boundary will kill it off right as it looks promising later on.

happy paul rudd GIF

Getting absolutely dumped on west of NB!!!

Edited by Wilcox Cummingtonite
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