2024 Rain Thread: All Your El Nino Are Belong to Us

[Brisketexan 105483]

Looks like some help in the Canyon Lake watershed too.  Not overwhelming, but a little helpful.

[4th&Five 41619]

Nice shower rn in Lakeway. 

[Steamboat1874 4117]

Force field is strong in Georgetown.

[Hookem75 214]

 

[Bookman 4649]

We had 1/2 inch on Friday, 1 inch Sunday night/Monday, and 2.5 inches of rain already today. North San Antonio. It was pretty extreme for a bit not too long ago. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

60k is apocalyptic shit.  that's crazy

[InkaUtexas 26266]

Damn nice rain in San Marcos. Gods are not as angry as last night, just a gentle disagreement.

[Schulz2.0 29021]

 

 

[hornbri 1427]

3 hours ago, HOOKEM4 said:

It peaked at 62k. Coming down now. Great plug of water for Travis though.

That gate at Junction is steadily increasing though, up over 16k now and that will add more from the other fork. 

[hornbri 1427]

And there is the flood warning for the llano, peaking at just under 15 feet. 

Quote

FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT TO THURSDAY MORNING

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in Texas...

Llano River at Llano affecting Llano County.

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Llano River at Llano.

* WHEN...From late tonight to Thursday morning.

* IMPACTS...At 16.0 feet, Moderate lowland flooding threatens docks
and boats in the flood plain downstream in Kingsland. Secondary
roads and bridges will be flooded and dangerous to motorists. Flow
exceeds the USGS 1:2 year flood level.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

- At 1:00 PM CDT Tuesday the stage was 2.9 feet.

- Bankfull stage is 10.0 feet.

- Forecast...The river will rise to 3.1 feet late this
afternoon. It will then fall to 3.0 feet late this afternoon.
It will rise above flood stage late tonight to 14.8 feet late
tomorrow morning. It will then fall below flood stage
tomorrow evening.

- Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
 

Quote

 

 

 

[Brisketexan 105483]

Yeesh.  All of this is helpful, but man....barely makes a dent.  E.g., the Llano was delivering 60,000 cfs for an hour or so.  That translates into around 550 acre feet of water in that hour.  That is..... 0.2% of the total holding volume of Lake Travis (nearly 2 million acre feet).  It's just under 1% of the available capacity of 648,000 acre feet (that is, that's how far below "full" LT is right now).  All if this will add a few percentage points, and every bit helps.  But we need a LOT more.  Come on, rain clouds.

[hornbri 1427]

I saw some numbers that calculated this at about 30k a-f of water right now so maybe 0.5%. But that would still result in a couple foot rise on travis. 

We need it to keep coming for days. 

[Hate 20155]

39 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeesh.  All of this is helpful, but man....barely makes a dent.  E.g., the Llano was delivering 60,000 cfs for an hour or so.  That translates into around 550 acre feet of water in that hour.  That is..... 0.2% of the total holding volume of Lake Travis (nearly 2 million acre feet).  It's just under 1% of the available capacity of 648,000 acre feet (that is, that's how far below "full" LT is right now).  All if this will add a few percentage points, and every bit helps.  But we need a LOT more.  Come on, rain clouds.

Goddamnit Eyeore. Are you contractually obligated to piss in everyone’s Cheerios?

Edited July 23 by Hate

[Brisketexan 105483]

1 minute ago, Hate said:

Goddamnit Eyeore. Are you contractually obligated to piss in everyone’s Cheerios?

As a matter of fact...

On the bright side, I had a lot of coffee this morning, so the piss I just took will contribute .000001% to Lake Travis.  Every little bit helps.

[utee94 15878]

Except in this case imagine, you know, it raining everywhere EXCEPT on top of brisket/Eeyore.

 

 

[Deej 77005]

3 hours ago, Hookem75 said:

 

We should stop warning people and not bother with rescue and recovery for the dumbasses that can't figure this out for themselves. 

[atomheartbevo 89895]

7 minutes ago, Deej said:

We should stop warning people and not bother with rescue and recovery for the dumbasses that can't figure this out for themselves. 

We might get a reputation as a state where a lot of Californians are dying from flash floods..

[Orange&White 5539]

11 minutes ago, Deej said:

We should stop warning people and not bother with rescue and recovery for the dumbasses that can't figure this out for themselves. 

I think we can also go ahead quit putting a sign on every bridge in the entire state that says it might ice over in a freeze.

[Deej 77005]

Just now, Orange&White said:

I think we can also go ahead quit putting a sign on every bridge in the entire state that says it might ice over in a freeze.

[Deej 77005]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeesh.  All of this is helpful, but man....barely makes a dent.  E.g., the Llano was delivering 60,000 cfs for an hour or so.  That translates into around 550 acre feet of water in that hour.  That is..... 0.2% of the total holding volume of Lake Travis (nearly 2 million acre feet).  It's just under 1% of the available capacity of 648,000 acre feet (that is, that's how far below "full" LT is right now).  All if this will add a few percentage points, and every bit helps.  But we need a LOT more.  Come on, rain clouds.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

33k per second headed to LBJ right now, which will end up in Travis.

[NorthLoop 14254]

38 minutes ago, Deej said:

We should stop warning people and not bother with rescue and recovery for the dumbasses that can't figure this out for themselves. 

We could put up signs that say "Turn around, don't drown, unless you're not a pussy"

 

Texas would become a blue state pretty quickly. 

[Brisketexan 105483]

1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

33k per second headed to LBJ right now, which will end up in Travis.

Around 280 acre feet per hour.  99 more days of that, and LT will be full.

On the bright side, there's more inputs, and more to come.  This will make a meaningful dent.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeesh.  All of this is helpful, but man....barely makes a dent.  E.g., the Llano was delivering 60,000 cfs for an hour or so.  That translates into around 550 acre feet of water in that hour.  That is..... 0.2% of the total holding volume of Lake Travis (nearly 2 million acre feet).  It's just under 1% of the available capacity of 648,000 acre feet (that is, that's how far below "full" LT is right now).  All if this will add a few percentage points, and every bit helps.  But we need a LOT more.  Come on, rain clouds.

 

 

 

also, he's off by a factor of ten.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Around 280 acre feet per hour.  99 more days of that, and LT will be full.

On the bright side, there's more inputs, and more to come.  This will make a meaningful dent.

again.

 

[InkaUtexas 26266]

1 hour ago, utee94 said:

Except in this case imagine, you know, it raining everywhere EXCEPT on top of brisket/Eeyore.

 

 

Brisket, the anti-PHD of rain fall.

[Blotto 23606]

 

[Brisketexan 105483]

6 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

 

 

 

also, he's off by a factor of ten.

Goddammit, you're right.  a 60k cfs flow rate for an hour is about 5,000 acre feet.  130 hours of that sort of flow would get us to full.  So, more of a dent than I thought.  

[Ghost of LL 15565]

19 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Goddammit, you're right.  a 60k cfs flow rate for an hour is about 5,000 acre feet.  130 hours of that sort of flow would get us to full.  So, more of a dent than I thought.  

And to expand on this just a bit--that was only from Johnson Branch.  Travis is going to be getting a whole lot of water from a whole lot of sources.  And rain continues to be in the forecast throughout the rest of the week.

Oh, and this is July.  This isn't even the rainy season.

[HOOKEM4 5051]

34 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Goddammit, you're right.  a 60k cfs flow rate for an hour is about 5,000 acre feet.  130 hours of that sort of flow would get us to full.  So, more of a dent than I thought.  

Imagine that!  Take a deep breath, it is raining in JULY. Enough to put a dent in the lake.

You don't complain about a mediocre BJ after months of being ignored.

[txduck87 998]

Imagine that!  Take a deep breath, it is raining in JULY. Enough to put a dent in the lake.
You don't complain about a mediocre BJ after months of being ignored.

Married a long time eh?

[Steel Shank 9435]

51 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Goddammit, you're right.  a 60k cfs flow rate for an hour is about 5,000 acre feet.  130 hours of that sort of flow would get us to full.  So, more of a dent than I thought.  

smh

[HOOKEM4 5051]

Shits about to get real in Mason.

[HOOKEM4 5051]

67k now. Plug may be close to there. Topping out at 72k maybe? Either way, that is a shitload of water.

[atomheartbevo 89895]

Wasn’t this run by somebody on Surly

https://isthelakefullyet.com/#volume

How often is it updated?

[HOOKEM4 5051]

Shit I may have been off by 10k.

Crazy flows.

 

 

[Deej 77005]

11 minutes ago, HOOKEM4 said:

Crazy flows

It's piss.

[Orange&White 5539]

Just got the LCRA alert for opening of Starcke dam

[miguelito 11333]

1 hour ago, HOOKEM4 said:

Shit I may have been off by 10k.

 

 

 

 

[Steel Shank 9435]

[Anastasis 23471]

Highs in the 80s and rain in the forecast in late July in central Texas. What a world. 

[Cajun 11760]

13 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

 

That is on its way here to Canyon Lake.  Thank's to Crom for this bountiful harvest!

[atomheartbevo 89895]

1 hour ago, Cajun said:

Thank's to Crom for this bountiful harvest!

Better to be silent than to call his attention to you; he will send you doom, not fortune!

[Orange&White 5539]

 

https://hydromet.lcra.org/floodstatus#llevels

 

Quote

Lake Travis

Floodgate Operations and Forecasts

Last Update: Jul 24 2024 5:35AM
Inflows: Inflows to Lake Travis are below levels that would require gate operations to pass floodwaters at Mansfield Dam.
Gate Operations: No gate operations to pass floodwaters are expected at Mansfield Dam at this time.
Lake level forecast: Lake Travis is expected rise to a range of 638-640 ft msl over the next 24 hours.

Max Reading: 635.31 Jul 24 2024 7:45AM
Last Reading: 635.31 Jul 24 2024 7:45AM

 

[utee94 15878]

Well thank goodness they cleared that up for us.  No floodgates will be open for Lake Travis as it rises from its current 46 feet below full, to a potential 41 feet below full.

Important safety tip. Thanks, Egon.

Edited July 24 by utee94

[Orange&White 5539]

Second floodgate opening on Starcke now.

[Anastasis 23471]

640 is a start. 

[Spaulding Smails 1566]

19 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

 

Lake Medina was 94' low as of yesterday (2.2% of capacity), and up about 3' since yesterday.  It's a much smaller lake (250K acre feet capacity) with a much, much smaller watershed.  I've heard stories that the surveyors in the early 20th century overestimated the watershed by almost 200%, thinking that portions north of the lake flowed to the Medina when they actually flowed to the Guadalupe.

Looks like the Medina River peaked at about 3,000 cf/s yesterday and has already receded to 200 cf/s.  They'll get a little bump from this, but I'm guessing it'll be no more than 10' total unless more rain falls this week.  

My aunt and uncle have lived there for almost 30 years, and my parents lived there until about 10 years ago.  As the oldest reservoir in Texas, it certainly wasn't built for recreation, but it's one of the prettiest lakes in Texas when it has water.  Lots of animosity amongst those that live on the lake towards the inefficient management of water by the Medina Irrigation Company and SAWS.  My folks sold when the lake was almost full, thank goodness.  For perspective, they lived on a cove about a mile from the dam.  That cove was about 30' deep when full.  The lowest I ever saw it was maybe 40' from full when they lived there.  I can't even fathom 94' feet low.  

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

about 20,000 acre-feet straight to LBJ in the last six hours, which presumably will be passed straight to travis.  thats a nice 2% bump.

[Cajun 11760]

This is my first flood event since moving to Canyon Lake about 2 yrs ago.  Dumb question amnesty here - That water blob over in Kerrville, how long does that take to make it into CL?

I'm watching lake levels here and there's been almost no change for the last 48 hrs.  I know it has to wind down, but would that take a couple of days or over a week or more?

I'll take the snarky answers, just give me one.  I GOTSTA KNOW!