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2024 Rain Thread: All Your El Nino Are Belong to Us

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15244

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Wasn’t this run by somebody on Surly

https://isthelakefullyet.com/#volume

How often is it updated?

Travis is already up nearly a foot over this time yesterday, and none of that Llano water has even made it to LBJ, much less Travis.

12 minutes ago, Cajun said:

This is my first flood event since moving to Canyon Lake about 2 yrs ago.  Dumb question amnesty here - That water blob over in Kerrville, how long does that take to make it into CL?

I'm watching lake levels here and there's been almost no change for the last 48 hrs.  I know it has to wind down, but would that take a couple of days or over a week or more?

I'll take the snarky answers, just give me one.  I GOTSTA KNOW!

I don't know, and it's really unknowable without running a model.  It's going to take different amounts of time depending on the size of the flood (broadly speaking, it takes a larger flood more time to flow downstream).  But just looking at a map and being vaguely familiar with the topography, I would guess somewhere in the neighborhood of 36 hours.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 24932

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Cajun said:

I'll take the snarky answers, just give me one.  I GOTSTA KNOW!

Where to begin with snarky answers.

Water has to move? Kerrville is keeping it all? Illegal damns? Vineyards?

So many questions.

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Cajun

Cajun 11659

Posted
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7 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Where to begin with snarky answers.

Water has to move? Kerrville is keeping it all? Illegal damns? Vineyards?

So many questions.

Those seem like snarky questions.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 24932

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4 minutes ago, Cajun said:

Those seem like snarky questions.

Remember what site you are on. There are so many approaches to snarky answers.

1- Blame aggy (most of the group)

2- Conspiracy (most of the group, some funnier than others.)

3- OMG, doom (led by Brisket)

4- The classic, something something South Austin's Mom.

5- One of the overlords gets pissed at political comments (climate, whatever) and warns us all and moves the entire thread to CR.

6- Someone who really understands chimes in, but it is TLDR and we all gloss over it and learn not a damn thing.

Maybe we need to work on our material. But any are possible

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Ten Bears

Ten Bears 2437

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Posted
21 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeesh.  All of this is helpful, but man....barely makes a dent.  E.g., the Llano was delivering 60,000 cfs for an hour or so.  That translates into around 550 acre feet of water in that hour.  That is..... 0.2% of the total holding volume of Lake Travis (nearly 2 million acre feet).  It's just under 1% of the available capacity of 648,000 acre feet (that is, that's how far below "full" LT is right now).  All if this will add a few percentage points, and every bit helps.  But we need a LOT more.  Come on, rain clouds.

Figure It Out What GIF by CBC

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 103515

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46 minutes ago, Cajun said:

This is Canyon Lake's current data.  So far I haz disappoint...

 

 

44 minutes ago, Cajun said:

Emphasis on the word "little" so far.  

FML

What I get out of this is that Cajun is self-conscious about his ladyfriend calling him the "Canyon Lake of lovers."

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Cajun

Cajun 11659

Posted
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1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

Remember what site you are on. There are so many approaches to snarky answers.

1- Blame aggy (most of the group)

2- Conspiracy (most of the group, some funnier than others.)

3- OMG, doom (led by Brisket)

4- The classic, something something South Austin's Mom.

5- One of the overlords gets pissed at political comments (climate, whatever) and warns us all and moves the entire thread to CR.

6- Someone who really understands chimes in, but it is TLDR and we all gloss over it and learn not a damn thing.

Maybe we need to work on our material. But any are possible

I am disappointed that #4 wasn't invoked - ie Don't worry Cajun, Canyon Lake is about to take a giant load anytime now just like....

Well, you know.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 24932

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Just now, Cajun said:

I am disappointed that #4 wasn't invoked - ie Don't worry Cajun, Canyon Lake is about to take a giant load anytime now just like....

Well, you know.

No I don't. A toilet in some obscure airport? A Buccees? Someone's mom?

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Cajun

Cajun 11659

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23 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 

What I get out of this is that Cajun is self-conscious about his ladyfriend calling him the "Canyon Lake of lovers."

I have no ladyfriend(s) anymore.  

Unless you count the "Hey Mister!" boat urchins that swim out while I'm trying to get my Yacht Rock groove on.

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

No I don't. A toilet in some obscure airport? A Buccees? Someone's mom?

You are rolling today.

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Cajun

Cajun 11659

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35 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

 There are sandbars in the pacific as well. Don't mean you are not stuck on one. Hell, with that crew I could think of worse things.

Except there's no sand in Canyon Lake.  Now if you had said limestone boulder bar...

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Wilcox Cummingtonite

Wilcox Cummingtonite 2735

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Cajun said:

And before anybody complains (DII soccer players on a bachelorette weekend)...

IMG_5251.jpeg

IMG_5256.jpeg

IMG_5261.jpeg

IMG_5250.jpeg

Damn I need to get out on the lake more. I live about 4 miles south of Startzville. Moved up here in ‘22 from SA.
 

Now I just gotta figure out how to leave my wife at home whilst going to said lake. DAT ASS.

Edited by Wilcox Cummingtonite
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Steel Shank

Steel Shank 9330

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Cajun said:

This is my first flood event since moving to Canyon Lake about 2 yrs ago.  Dumb question amnesty here - That water blob over in Kerrville, how long does that take to make it into CL?

I'm watching lake levels here and there's been almost no change for the last 48 hrs.  I know it has to wind down, but would that take a couple of days or over a week or more?

I'll take the snarky answers, just give me one.  I GOTSTA KNOW!

The Broken Image of 'Dirty Harry' - Film Cred

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troph

troph 23995

Posted
Posted (edited)

up 5 feet, looks up 3 already wasn't LT at 634 recently?

 

the other thing many don't realize (all you old ass men aka weather nerds know), every lake below Buchanan is constant level so any excess rain (defined as enough to raise lake levels) below Buchanan will flow into Travis. the Llano is one of the biggest watersheds for Travis and it's not technically shown in the Travis watershed.

Edited by troph
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utee94

utee94 15708

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, troph said:

up 5 feet, looks up 3 already wasn't LT at 634 recently?

 

the other thing many don't realize (all you old ass men aka weather nerds know), every lake below Buchanan is constant level so any excess rain (defined as enough to raise lake levels) below Buchanan will flow into Travis. the Llano is one of the biggest watersheds for Travis and it's not technically shown in the Travis watershed.

It was just over 634 as recently as 3 days ago.  All of this movement is very recent.

And it's true that the recharge zones for everything below Buchanan, including the Llano, technically feed into Lake Travis eventually, but there's still a good chunk of that water that's diverted, absorbed, evaporated, or for whatever other reason just doesn't ever quite make it.  Direct hits on the Ped and all tributaries within the official Lake Travis basin are the much more direct and efficient ways to recharge LT.

But yeah, all that rain out west is still helping.  If we could get another hit like that in the same areas, with the ground already saturated, then we'd be talking about a major event that could raise the lake level significantly.

Edited by utee94
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troph

troph 23995

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4 minutes ago, utee94 said:

It was just over 634 as recently as 3 days ago.  All of this movement is very recent.

And it's true that the recharge zones for everything below Buchanan, including the Llano, technically feed into Lake Travis eventually, but there's still a good chunk of that water that's diverted, absorbed, evaporated, or for whatever other reason just doesn't ever quite make it.  Direct hits on the Ped and all tributaries within the official Lake Travis basin are the much more direct and efficient ways to recharge LT.

But yeah, all that rain out west is still helping.  If we could get another hit like that in the same areas, with the ground already saturated, then we'd be talking about a major event that could raise the lake level significantly.

well the closer to LT the better that's true and if the rain isn't enough to cause those dams to be open then it means nothing but if you flood the llano it's LT water - it's why I said excess rain.

the last two meaningful bumps for LT (not the 1 foot late spring) were both Llano River events if my memory is not mistaken.

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utee94

utee94 15708

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Just now, troph said:

well the closer to LT the better that's true and if the rain isn't enough to cause those dams to be open then it means nothing but if you flood the llano it's LT water - it's why I said excess rain.

the last two meaningful bumps for LT (not the 1 foot late spring) were both Llano River events if my memory is not mistaken.

I'm just saying if you shift all that rain that hit the Llano down onto the Ped, then we'd probably be talking about a 10-foot rise, not a 5-foot rise.  It's not a direct correlation, there are all sorts of losses along the way, when it has to go an extra 50 plus miles and through multiple dams.

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troph

troph 23995

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10 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I'm just saying if you shift all that rain that hit the Llano down onto the Ped, then we'd probably be talking about a 10-foot rise, not a 5-foot rise.  It's not a direct correlation, there are all sorts of losses along the way, when it has to go an extra 50 plus miles and through multiple dams.

of course. but it's not like upper Colorado where it's 10 inches of rain (this spring) and zero in LT.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45013

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Remember what site you are on. There are so many approaches to snarky answers.

1- Blame aggy (most of the group)

2- Conspiracy (most of the group, some funnier than others.)

3- OMG, doom (led by Brisket)

4- The classic, something something South Austin's Mom.

5- One of the overlords gets pissed at political comments (climate, whatever) and warns us all and moves the entire thread to CR.

6- Someone who really understands chimes in, but it is TLDR and we all gloss over it and learn not a damn thing.

Maybe we need to work on our material. But any are possible

Most succinct and accurate post of the workings of this site I may have ever seen. 

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