2024 Rain Thread: All Your El Nino Are Belong to Us

[boknowstecmo 216]

Update for tomorrow: It will probably rain in the evening only, and it won't be much. 

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2752]

On 4/16/2024 at 12:14 PM, NorthLoop said:

So from Georgetown to Waco will flood. Austin will get a few sprinkles. San Marcos will flood. NB will get farted on, and not the wet kind. 

 

Sound about right, @Wilcox Cummingtonite?

I’ve been watching the forecasted QPF precip totals drop all week…my guess is a broken line of storms along tomorrow’s front that peters out as it moves east then reforms once past us (as per usual). We might get 0.25-0.5”. Everywhere north and east of Austin gets bukkaked as always.

In other words, you are spot on sir.

[Chet Steadman 940]

One hundred percent chance of rain sounds promising, no?  

Not surprisingly however, latest forecast from Spency has it missing the Highlands almost entirely.  

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2752]

Short term models look terrible. It might not even rain until 12-1am tonight- just a quick shower or two.

North and East of us looks like a deluge.

[gofuckyourself 8066]

Divested daily plans in the deluded hope of a deluge, now doubtlessly denied. D'oh.

[Post Oak 20114]

Not great but not surprising.

 

[troph 24028]

Why can’t we have nice things too? 
 

 

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2752]

53 minutes ago, troph said:

Why can’t we have nice things too? 
 

 

Rage-inducing watching DFW/NTX get flooded time after time while every promising forecast busts here. Even worse, it’s going to set up east and southeast of us this evening- probably another flood for Houston.
 

Mets of NWS Austin/SA, at some point you gotta admit defeat and realize that forecasting rainfall in our area without sufficient upper air balloon data from eastern Mexico is a total crapshoot. The QPF models are trash until about a day before.
 

Clearly something is going on in the mid levels (prob dry air coming off Mexican highlands) that washes out every system to nothing but clouds and drizzle while areas north and east get bukkake deluxe rainfall. 

Edited April 20 by Wilcox Cummingtonite

[Mighty fine 169]

Not great but not surprising.
 

UTRWD is currently building one, Ralph Hall, just a stones throw from Bois D'Arc. There are quite a few reservoir projects both conventional and off channel included in the regional water plans from the last cycle. I anticipate we see quite a few going in over the next three decades

[boknowstecmo 216]

Radar is looking better. Starting to proper rain in areas on the city. That rain up north is slowly moving down this way, and storms south are migrating north to us. We may actually get something! Or I may be smoking the bad weed today.

[InkaUtexas 24933]

1 minute ago, boknowstecmo said:

Radar is looking better. Starting to proper rain in areas on the city. That rain up north is slowly moving down this way, and storms south are migrating north to us. We may actually get something! Or I may be smoking the bad weed today.

[HenryJames 65567]

Rain, imo.

[NorthLoop 13954]

16 hours ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

I’ve been watching the forecasted QPF precip totals drop all week…my guess is a broken line of storms along tomorrow’s front that peters out as it moves east then reforms once past us (as per usual). We might get 0.25-0.5”. Everywhere north and east of Austin gets bukkaked as always.

In other words, you are spot on sir.

It's following the playbook perfectly 

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2752]

Certainly no rain in my area. I don’t count drizzle.

[InkaUtexas 24933]

Just now, NorthLoop said:

It's following the playbook perfectly 

Except we are not flooding in San Marcos.

[NorthLoop 13954]

20 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Except we are not flooding in San Marcos.

Oh you will

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20304]

Seriously ... what the fuck?
 

 

[Pam Cummings 9424]

14 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

Seriously ... what the fuck?
 

 

[SuperSport 1328]

Are the lakes full yet?

[HenryJames 65567]

Still raining.

[Hate 20061]

1 minute ago, HenryJames said:

Still raining.

...imo.

[NorthLoop 13954]

Here comes the NB split

[InkaUtexas 24933]

Faster than a coed Bobcat's legs.

 

[atomheartbevo 89055]

Not perfect, but didn't just blow through either.

[InkaUtexas 24933]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Not perfect, but didn't just blow through either.

Lot of noise, very little heavy stuff. Enough to fill up rain buckets.

[boknowstecmo 216]

Might be a little extra fluff after this main bit. San Antonio is getting hail again.

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

Still steady rain in Round Rock.

[troph 24028]

Won’t do much on its own but a lot of  .75-1 inch totals where it’s needed. Need a LOT more. Maybe we get more next week…? 
 

 

[SimonBolivar 10698]

I think almost all of Waco Surly lives in the suburbs of the south side, but this storm seems like it had a long track.

 

 

 

 

Also from the airport

Edited April 26 by SimonBolivar

[Post Oak 20114]

Wow. Thanks for posting. In Hewitt just a sprinkle. I did get an update from Midway that my kids were sheltering in place.  

Hopefully we get some this evening.  

[texasdago 7465]

[SimonBolivar 10698]

31 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

Wow. Thanks for posting. In Hewitt just a sprinkle. I did get an update from Midway that my kids were sheltering in place.  

Hopefully we get some this evening.  

My wife is a teacher at WISD that was far from the China Spring area but they still had to shelter in place when the sirens went off and she had kids telling her, "If I die tell my parents that I loved them." Kids today are so much more aware of their mortality than I was as a 2nd grader.

[NorthLoop 13954]

12 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

My wife is a teacher at WISD that was far from the China Spring area but they still had to shelter in place when the sirens went off and she had kids telling her, "If I die tell my parents that I loved them." Kids today are so much more aware of their mortality than I was as a 2nd grader.

30 min later that kid pulled out his iphone 15 and marked himself safe on facebook. 

[SimonBolivar 10698]

3 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

30 min later that kid pulled out his iphone 15 and marked himself safe on facebook. 

More likely to punch their teacher in the face in 30 minutes than pull out a top-of-the-line phone at her school, but hey no student loan payments after however many years for my wife so totally worth it. /s

[Post Oak 20114]

36 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

My wife is a teacher at WISD that was far from the China Spring area but they still had to shelter in place when the sirens went off and she had kids telling her, "If I die tell my parents that I loved them." Kids today are so much more aware of their mortality than I was as a 2nd grader.

I hate that so much. My kids do lockdown drills every month.   

 

[Blotto 23293]

38 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

30 min later that kid pulled out his iphone 15 and marked himself safe on facebook yanked it to an onlyfans video of his teacher.

Well, it was almost certainly some other teacher. 

[SimonBolivar 10698]

1 minute ago, Blotto said:

Well, it was almost certainly some other teacher. 

Well, let's see what kind of income stream we're talking about here before we rule anything out.

[SimonBolivar 10698]

I'm assuming this storm that has been sitting over San Saba County for an hour and is still moving incredibly slowly is a good thing for y'alls lakes?

 

[texasdago 7465]

1 hour ago, SimonBolivar said:

I'm assuming this storm that has been sitting over San Saba County for an hour and is still moving incredibly slowly is a good thing for y'alls lakes?

 

Results...

[utee94 15722]

1 hour ago, SimonBolivar said:

I'm assuming this storm that has been sitting over San Saba County for an hour and is still moving incredibly slowly is a good thing for y'alls lakes?

 

Sadly, no.  I mean, any rain is better than nothing, but this won't make even a tiny dent in the lakes.  It would have to be roughly 10x this amount, across an area about 10x wider, and over 10x as many days, to move the needle on the lakes.  Unfortunately, not really exaggerating there.

 

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2752]

It’s never going to rain south of Temple again.

[atomheartbevo 89055]

1 hour ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

It’s never going to rain south of Temple again.

It’ll rain next weekend because I’m going camping then, but you don’t need to thank me.

[texhorn 351]

15 hours ago, utee94 said:

Sadly, no.  I mean, any rain is better than nothing, but this won't make even a tiny dent in the lakes.  It would have to be roughly 10x this amount, across an area about 10x wider, and over 10x as many days, to move the needle on the lakes.  Unfortunately, not really exaggerating there.

 

 

Or one good 19" rain bomb 

[twosheds 370]

 
Or one good 19" rain bomb 

Unfortunately, we don’t anymore.

[Biff Tannen 45228]

19 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

It’ll rain next weekend because I’m going camping then, but you don’t need to thank me.

I canceled a backpacking trip to Colorado bend today so it god damn get lit up tonight and tomorrow morning. This is 3 out of the last 4 years I’ve been rained out in April at Colorado Bend. Getting a little tired of it. 

[leaf 681]

41 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I canceled a backpacking trip to Colorado bend today so it god damn get lit up tonight and tomorrow morning. This is 3 out of the last 4 years I’ve been rained out in April at Colorado Bend. Getting a little tired of it. 

Thank you for your sacrifice.

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2752]

Not a chance that line out west holds together overnight. Outflow boundary will kill it off right as it looks promising later on.

[Hawndoh 2363]

Line of storms stretch from Mexico to Lake Michigan with no gaps. 

[miguelito 11116]

So far we've had about half an inch in 30 minutes. Nonstop lightning.

[Wilcox Cummingtonite 2752]

7 hours ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

Not a chance that line out west holds together overnight. Outflow boundary will kill it off right as it looks promising later on.

Getting absolutely dumped on west of NB!!!

Edited April 28 by Wilcox Cummingtonite