Media/$9.95-er postgame analysis articles (Sugar Bowl)

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Collecting all the post-game analysis articles, including those behind paywalls, regarding the Washington game here:

The Athletic: Michael Penix Jr.’s magnificence carries Washington over Texas, into title game vs. Michigan

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There wasn’t a single play Michael Penix Jr. couldn’t make Monday night. When Texas blanketed his receivers, the Washington quarterback fired lasers across the middle. When the Longhorns brought pressure, Penix peppered his checkdowns. And when he found his favorite weapons streaking down the field? Penix’s volley of rainbows raced Washington further toward the end zone.

In Washington’s 37-31 thrilling shootout win over Texas in the Sugar Bowl, Penix may have produced his magnum opus to launch the Huskies into a national championship game date with Michigan next Monday night. There were 592 first-place Heisman votes given to players other than Penix. The 23-year-old played Monday night like he was trying to send personal game tape to all 592 of those voters.

He accounted for over 460 total yards (430 through the air, 31 on the ground) on 29-of-38 passing and a pair of touchdowns. He played both the role of orchestrator — operating five different scoring drives of eight-plus plays — and magician, thrilling the New Orleans crowd with a barrage of 20-plus yard plays. He fed Rome Odunze, his season-long favorite target, with six catches for 125 yards, each long strike more backbreaking than the last.

Penix and the Huskies offense didn’t take long to warm up, as he connected with Ja’Lynn Polk for a 77-yard bomb on Washington’s fourth play of the game. Running back Dillon Johnson plowed in a 2-yard score seconds later — the first of Johnson’s two scores — to open the floodgates. Polk finished with 122 yards on five catches and a touchdown.

To Texas’ credit, the Longhorns never crumpled against the buzzsaw. Quarterback Quinn Ewers faced nonstop pressure from Washington’s relentless front seven, and when the Longhorns passer wasn’t being sacked he was often finding targets in all corners of the field. Despite struggling to get the ball to his star receivers Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell, Ewers finished with 318 yards on 24-of-43 passing with a touchdown, while driving the Longhorns into the red zone repeatedly, resulting in three more rushing scores.

But in the end, Penix’s greatness was suffocating. Despite Ewers’ steady play, untimely turnovers meant the Longhorns managed just five offensive plays. By the time Texas got off its sixth offensive snap of the second half, Washington had racked up 13 game-swinging points. The thrilling second half came on the heels of a neck-and-neck first half in which the two powerhouses scored three touchdowns and racked up over 500 yards before the third quarter began.

Ewers and the Longhorns kept driving until the final horn — putting together a 10-play touchdown drive of their own in the fourth quarter — but ran out of time to continue their season of destiny. With one second to play, the Longhorns had one final chance to take the lead and stun the Huskies, but Ewers’ end zone shot to Mitchell fell incomplete, saving Washington from an unthinkable comeback.

Andrea Adelson: Washington Huskies top Texas Longhorns, seal CFP final spot

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NEW ORLEANS -- There would be no doubting Washington by the time the final seconds ticked off the clock against Texas in the College Football Playoff semifinals at the Allstate Sugar Bowl. Michael Penix Jr. made sure of that. Penix delivered one of the most dominant quarterback performances in CFP history, as the Huskies held off the Longhorns 37-31 on Monday night.

Now, Washington will play Michigan in the CFP national title game on Jan. 8 in Houston -- its first national championship opportunity since 1991. Though Penix threw for 430 yards, Washington could never quite get complete control of the game. Texas made it a one-score game twice in the final seven minutes as it attempted to erase a 13-point fourth quarter deficit. After closing it to 37-31 with 1:09 remaining, Texas attempted an onside kick, but Washington recovered.

After forcing a three-and-out, Texas got the ball back with 45 seconds left, the ball at its 31-yard line. Quinn Ewers drove Texas down to the 13-yard line with four attempts to win the game. But on fourth down, Makell Esteen batted a pass away from Adonai Mitchell in the end zone and Washington prevailed.

When it was all said and done, Penix went 29-of-38 for 430 yards and two touchdowns, and as a result, became the first player with multiple 4,500-yard passing seasons in Pac-12 history. His 430 yards Monday ranks No. 4 among all CFP games played. Odunze and Polk each finished with 100 yards receiving, too.

The decision Penix made to come to Washington in 2022 has helped change the trajectory of the Washington football program. But that all started with the hiring of coach Kalen DeBoer, an offensive mastermind who won three NAIA championships as head coach at the University of Sioux Falls in South Dakota before working his way up the FBS ranks and landing with the Huskies.

One of his first phone calls after taking the job was to Penix, whom he coached for one season as offensive coordinator at Indiana. Penix wanted to play for DeBoer, noting his comfort level, trust and belief in him not only as a coach but an offensive innovator. In their two years together, they have won 25 of 27 games and are on the precipice of accomplishing something much greater.

The program has been more than just Penix, of course. While DeBoer has done an excellent job using the transfer portal, he also has nine sixth-year players who started their careers at Washington under a different coaching staff -- willing to buy in and believe in his message, too. There are other veteran seniors, too, including Odunze and linebacker Bralen Trice who have taken the lead in helping establish the culture DeBoer wanted to instill.

Despite everything this team has accomplished this season, it went into its semifinal against Texas as the underdog -- the second straight game where it was not favored to win. That irked the Huskies to the point where they used that as extra motivation. Trice told ESPN earlier this week, "I want to go out there and smack them." Penix, too, had enough of the way Texas' defensive front had called the guys in front of him "just another o-line," saying in defense, "We're not playing the 49ers D-line or the Eagles D-line, so we'll be good."

It was Penix who was proven right, as once again his offensive line kept him upright and provided all the time he needed to do what he does best. In the first half alone, Penix was 8-of-8 for 222 yards and a touchdown targeting his wide receivers. Then to open the second half, he had 11 straight completions. By the time the third quarter had ended, Penix had 372 yards passing, two touchdowns and just four incompletions as the Washington fans chanted, "Let's Go Huskies!"

Though Washington threatened to blow the game open after going up 34-21 midway early in the fourth quarter, Texas hung around and its defense stepped up to keep the Longhorns in the game. After Jaydon Blue fumbled, Washington could not take advantage and was forced to punt. On the ensuing drive, Ewers threw a 1-yard touchdown pass to Mitchell, a transfer from Georgia to make it 34-28. Mitchell is automatic in the CFP -- with a touchdown reception in all five CFP games in which he has played.

On the next possession, Penix did what was needed to move Washington down the field -- including a 32-yard pass to Rome Odunze down the left sideline that was enough to get into field goal range and make it a two-score game before Texas tried one last comeback.

Texas stayed in the game in the first half, too, thanks in large part to its run game. The Longhorns had three rushing touchdowns - including one off a muffed Washington punt that led to defensive lineman Byron Murphy II scoring from 1-yard out. Texas averaged 6.4 yards per carry for the game.

But Ewers was not nearly as effective or consistent with the Texas passing game, and that hurt the Longhorns when it came time to put together sustained drives. Ewers finished 24-of-43 for 318 yards and a score, as Texas fell short in its attempt to play for a national championship for the first time since the 2009 season. Instead, the spotlight belonged to Penix and the Huskies.

Nick Kosko: Washington beats Texas 37-31 in Sugar Bowl

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The Washington Huskies defeated the Texas Longhorns 37-31 to advance to the College Football Playoff National Championship Game. At some points, it looked like the first half of the Sugar Bowl would be a complete shootout between two high powered offenses. However, the defenses had something to say about that. Eventually, Washington was too much in the third quarter and held serve throughout the fourth. Here’s how it all broke down in the second CFP semifinal of the night as the Huskies will take on Michigan next week for the title.

1st quarter: Washington 7, Texas 7

Following a punt on Texas’ first possession, Washington struck first in the CFP semi. Michael Penix Jr. drove Washington down in a hurry. That included a 77 yard completion to Ja’Lynn Polk to the Texas two-yard line. On the next play, Dillon Johnson punched it in for the touchdown and 7-0 lead. That’s when Texas responded. On a seven-play, 75-yard drive, a Quinn Ewers 36 yard completion to CJ Baxter highlighted the drive. It was capped off with a Jaydon Blue touchdown from five yards out, tying things up 7-7.

From there, defense took over. Both the Longhorns and Huskies forced punts before Washington got the ball back. To end the first quarter, Penix Jr. drove the Huskies 57 yards in five plays to the Texas 23-yard line as the clock hit all zeros and they flipped sides of the field.

2nd quarter: Washington 21, Texas 21

It took four plays, but Johnson punched it in for the Washington lead, 14-7, with 13:08 to go in the half. But then, Texas would respond. It wasn’t conventional, but Texas was forced to punt. However, Huskies return man Germie Bernard muffed the punt and the Longhorns landed on the football. Three plays later, Byron Murphy II ran it in for a one yard score and Texas tied things up 14-14 with 10:08 to go in the half.

Then things got really interesting. Washington drove from its own 25, which included a 52-yard reception from Rome Odunze, to the Texas 14. But Johnson was stuffed on a 4th-and-1 call and the Huskies turned it over on downs. The Longhorns could not take advantage as they punted after just four plays. Late in the half, Washington started moving again.

The Huskies meticulously moved up the field and went for it on 4th-and-1 again from their own 33-yard line. After converting, Washington moved into Texas territory and had a 2nd-and-5 from the Longhorns’ 45 yard line with 2:17 left. A couple of plays later, Penix Jr. fired a strike to Polk, who caught a 29-yard touchdown off a deflection in the air right in the end zone. The Huskies took a 21-14 lead with 1:27 left in the half.

But that was more than enough time for Ewers and the Longhorns offense. On a 10-play, 72-yard drive, the Texas quarterback made timely throws and a nice run as well. He ran 21 yards to the Washington seven and absorbed a late hit in the latter portion of the drive. Baxter punched it in during the next play to tie things up at 21-21.

3rd quarter: Washington 31, Texas 21

Penix Jr. led the Huskies right down the field in eight plays and 70 yards. It was capped off with a 19-yard touchdown pass to Jalen McMillan to go up 28-21. On the ensuing drive, Texas could not respond. During the first play of Texas’ third quarter trek, Baxter fumbled and the Huskies recovered. Washington’s next drive stalled after 24 yards and the Huskies settled for a field goal and a 31-21 lead with 7:44 to go in the third.

But Texas had no answers on the next drive, going four plays and just 21 yards before punting once again. That’s when the Huskies continued the third quarter domination. Penix Jr. and Washington ran 10 more plays for 63 yards down to the Texas 18-yard line before the quarter expired.

4th quarter: Washington wins 37-31

Washington finished off the aforementioned drive with two plays in the fourth quarter and took a 34-21 lead on a 40 yard field goal from Grady Gross. As soon as it looked like Texas would gain some momentum back, Blue coughed off the football off the backside of a teammate deep in Washington territory. But luckily for Texas, its defense forced a punt after four plays to get the ball back with a little over 11 minutes to go in the game.

But then Texas’ defense forced a punt and the offense woke up and got it going. Ewers led a 10-play, 72-yard drive in 3:56 for a touchdown. He found AD Mitchell on a goal line fade for the score to cut the lead 34-28 with 7:23 left in the ball game, but the Huskies wouldn’t go away quietly. On a 10-play, 65-yard drive, Penix Jr. bled the clock and led the Huskies to another Gross field goal to go up 37-28, and most importantly two scores, with 2:40 left.

Up against it, Texas drove 68 yards in 1:30 but had to settle for a field goal, needing two scores with just two timeouts. Bert Auburn connected from 25 yards out to cut the lead 37-31 and the Longhorns attempted an onside kick shortly thereafter. Washington recovered, but it did not travel 10 yards anyway. Washington ran two plays and Texas burnt its last two timeouts. With 1:02 on the clock, Washington had a 3rd-and-5 on the Longhorns’ 39.

Johnson took a handoff and was stopped short but was injured on the play. Because of that, the clock stopped and Texas elected to not use the 10-second run off. Washington was forced to punt but committed two penalties: a false start and then kick-catch interference. Texas began its drive at its own 31-yard line. After two incompletions, Ewers found Jordan Whittington for 41 yards to the Washington 28-yard line.

Then, Ewers laid a dime to Blue for a 16-yard gain, reeling in a bobble with one foot in bounds. It was called a catch on the field and after review, the call stood. Then, with five seconds left, Ewers and Texas faced 3rd-and-11 from the Washington 13. Ewers was pressured and threw an incomplete pass and the refs had to clarify and put one second back on the clock for one final play. However, Ewers couldn’t find Mitchell on the final play of the game in the corner of the end zone, sending the Huskies to the national title game.

 

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Steve Habel: Mistakes, penalties, missed opportunities ultimately doom Texas in Sugar Bowl loss

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NEW ORLEANS – It was all but a given that winning the Allstate Sugar Bowl and earning a spot in the College Football Playoff championship game would come down to which team would make the least mistakes – and that was the case in second-ranked Washington’s 37-31 win over No. 3 Texas in the 90th rendition of this classic game, played before a sellout crowd of 68,791.

The Longhorns, playing in their first College Football Playoff game ever, made mistake after mistake, committing uncharacteristic penalties and putting the football on the ground with two fumbles – one by CJ Baxter in the third quarter and another by Jaydon Blue to thwart a drive near the red zone in the fourth – and general miscommunication in several key stints of the loss.

Texas needed to play a clean game, like it did against Texas Tech on Black Friday and again versus Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship, to have a chance to beat Washington. It didn’t deliver.

“Unfortunately we dug ourselves a hole with some self-inflicted wounds,” Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said afterward. “And give credit to Washington, they played a very good game. [They] made some big plays down the field. And when they extended the lead, we got a little bit out of game plan to try to fight our way back into it.”

Texas had 10 penalties for 66 yards, including getting flagged on their first play from scrimmage and the opening kickoff of the second half. “Those were some things that were a little disappointing,” Sarkisian said. “And I don’t know if that’s because of the lay-off or just sometimes being in the environment and you’re a little excited to go play.”

The two fumbles were killer, with Baxter’s in the third contributing to total domination in the quarter for Washington. The Huskies ran 22 plays in the to just five for Texas, racked up a 157-34 edge in total yards and turned a tied game into a 13-point lead on the second snap of the fourth quarter.

“The defense did a nice job getting off the field, whether it be with takeaways or you know, getting stops,” Washington coach Kalen DeBoer said about the third quarter. “We started feeling that there in the second quarter, and in the beginning of the third, getting a chance to have the ball to come out. Marching right down the field and then go to get in that 13-point lead – that was a big time of the game for us to be able to be a little bit more control.”

Texas defensive front was supposed to be a difference maker, but the Longhorns had no sacks and zero quarterback hurries. Washington and stellar quarterback Michael Penix Jr. had an answer for every question, enough so that the Huskies were able to hold on as Texas charged hard to win at the end.

“We just couldn’t get (Penix) on the ground. We couldn’t generate enough pressure,” Sarkisian explained. “Our guys were fighting with the pass rush. We couldn’t put enough pressure on the tackles, quite frankly, to get a holding call to even get them off schedule. The times we did get him into some third-and-longs, we had the ability to get off the field. But we just couldn’t get him on the ground.”

The Longhorns never led in this game – a first for Texas this season. “We ran the ball really well early in the game but when you fall behind, it kind of stressed us where we had to kind of not lean on the run like we wanted to,” Sarkisian said. “And that really changed as much of the game as anything. We had to really start throwing it.”

Joe Cook: The Longhorns' 2023 season ends 12 yards away from a potential game-winning score

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Even after Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr. delivered one of the best passing performances in the history of the College Football Playoff, the No. 3 Texas Longhorns still had a chance to win the Sugar Bowl. A last-ditch drive put the Texas offense at the Washington 12-yard line with 15 seconds remaining and no timeouts, and Quinn Ewers looked to lead Texas to the National Championship game with a game-tying touchdown that would provide an opportunity for Bert Auburn to kick the game-winning extra point.

To even be in that situation was a minor miracle. Penix passed for 430 and two touchdowns and had nine passing plays of 15 or more yards. The Huskies took a 37-28 lead with 2:40 to go thanks to a Grady Gross field goal. Texas had to score, get a stop, then move down the field to even have a chance. Thanks to one defensive stand with just under a minute left, a clock stoppage brought about by an injury to Husky running back Dillon Johnson, a kick catch interference penalty committed against Jordan Whittington, and a lightning fast drive down the field, Texas earned an opportunity for three or four final shots at the end zone.

But like on a number of other occasions during the course of the Longhorns’ 2023 campaign, they struggled mightily to net six points when presented with an opportunity inside what Steve Sarkisian likes to call the red area. The situation greatly reduced the number of options available to Sarkisian the play-caller. Every pass had to be to a intended receiver within the bounds of the end zone since Texas would be wasting seconds and opportunities should they complete a pass to someone, say, at the four.

The 1st-and-10 play resulted in a one-yard loss on via a swing pass to Jaydon Blue. Sarkisian explained postgame that Blue wasn’t the first option.

“He was more of a check-down on the play,” Sarkisian said. “We were looking for an opportunity for (Ja’Tavion Sanders) or (Whittington) trying to create a one-on-one matchup for those guys to go high-point it. Naturally, they did a good job defending it. And Quinn did a good job of just getting the ball out to Blue with a chance in space, but had to get out of bounds.”

Second down resulted in Ewers looking for Adonai Mitchell, who caught a touchdown pass earlier in the game to make it five receiving scores in five career College Football Playoff games split between Georgia and Texas. His pass fell incomplete.

Third down saw Ewers pressured and forced to leave the pocket. While in the grasp of Husky defender Mishael Powell, Ewers was able to get rid of the ball to avoid a sack, leaving one second on the game clock. It was a harkening back to when Colt McCoy’s throwaway in the 2009 Big 12 Championship game hit the turf with one second remaining, giving Hunter Lawrence time to break the hearts of Ndamukong Suh and the Nebraska Cornhuskers.

But unlike that 2009 contest, Texas would not be able to emerge with a victory as the clock hit 0:00.

Ewers took the 4th-and-11 snap and looked for Mitchell in the same corner of the end zone where he recorded his earlier, jump ball touchdown reception that made it a 34-28 contest in favor of the Huskies. Rather than throw it to the front pylon, Ewers put another jump ball up for Mitchell. Husky defender Elijah Jackson deftly swatted away the pass from Mitchell, and the jubilant Huskies swarmed the Cesaers Superdome field after making a game-winning stand.

Entering the contest, Texas was No. 91 in red zone conversions and an even worse No. 121 out of 133 in touchdown percentage on red zone chances at 49.1 percent. Texas outperformed their typical red zone numbers, going 5-for-6 inside the 20 on Monday night. But the sixth occasion would be the critical one where Texas failed to execute to the level needed and saw their season end as a result.

“Just was looking to give my guys an opportunity to go make a play,” Ewers said. “At the end of the day, that’s all you can really do.” Sarkisian said his play designs for the specific situation featured rout combinations intent on giving his receivers, Blue, and Sanders one-on-one matchups to make a play. “We just weren’t quite able to do it,” Sarkisian said. “So that’s the way it goes sometimes.”

Sarkisian was proud of his team for making it a game that came down to the very final play and required a skilled PBU on a receiver with a penchant for making plays in CFP games to make one of his own. “In the end, came up short,” Sarkisian said. “But there’s nothing to hang our heads about. These guys fought. And I’m very, very proud of the effort that they put into it.”

(ian Boyd) Five quick thoughts: Texas loses wild game to Washington

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Texas came up short in the 2023-24 College Football Playoff semi-final against the Washington Huskies 37-31 in a hard fought contest. It couldn’t have been much closer. The Longhorns got an improbable late run at the game-winning touchdown pass and Quinn Ewers had Adonai Mitchell in the corner of the end zone but a high pass was batted out of bounds by a Washington defensive back (back-up Makell Esteen) and the clock read 00:00 with the Huskies on top.

The series of events which lead to the dramatic conclusion were nothing short of wild. After a failed onside kick attempt, the Huskies ran the ball three times against a Texas team with just two timeouts but an injury timeout after their star running back Dillon Johnson went down preserved nearly a full minute of clock for Texas. Then Washington incurred a false start and a kick catch interference and suddenly the Longhorns had nearly a minute to go 69 yards for the win.

They came close but their season concludes while the Huskies try to lick their wounds and prepare to face the Michigan Wolverines in the Final.

Quick thought no. 1: Michael Penix Jr killed the Longhorn season

The first half from Michael Penix Jr and the Washington passing game couldn’t have gone much better. Penix was a sizzling 11-14 for 255 yards at an unbelievable 18.2 ypa and a touchdown. Every contested catch seemed to be a completed ball for the Huskies and they landed several shots down the field of the sort Texas had denied in the Alamo Bowl over a year ago.

Penix’s second half was a still impressive 18-for-24 for 175 yards at 7.3 ypa, just barely enough to allow the Huskies to control the ball (particularly in the third quarter) and close out with a win. His final line was 29-38 for 430 yards at 11.3 ypa with two touchdowns and zero interceptions. Texas pressured Penix very little on the day, with zero sacks or even quarterback hurries recorded in the stat sheet.

The Husky offensive tackles Troy Fautanu and Roger Rosengarten dominated the game while Washington was able to limit the damage inside against their diminutive center or simply have Penix side step pressure or safely roll out into open spaces before firing the ball down the field. Their ultra-veteran passing game took down Texas’ pass defense which had been a weakness all season and the game was ultimately that simple…late game heroics from the Longhorns notwithstanding.

Quick thought no. 2: Two fumbles took Texas out of the game

Washington’s defense was predictably vulnerable against the Longhorn offense but were saved on two different Texas drives by fumbles from the running backs. The third quarter could scarcely have gone worse for Texas. After an effortless-looking drive by the Huskies covered 70 yards in eight plays and put them up 28-21, Texas’ freshman running back Cedric Baxter fumbled on a good run while fighting for extra yards.

It was Washington ball on the Texas 33 and soon after a 31-21 lead for the Huskies which would hold until the fourth quarter. Later Texas began to march down the field in the fourth quarter down 34-21 only for a long Jaydon Blue catch and run to end with a fumble at the Washington 24-yard line. The Huskies couldn’t make anything of this possession but the turnover took points off the board which could have powered a Longhorn win.

The Huskies failed to burn much clock in the fourth quarter as the Longhorns took their turn to hold the ball and lean on the other team’s defense. However, four good drives into Washington territory ended in a fumble, a field goal, a touchdown, and a turnover on downs with time expiring.

Quick thought no. 3: A game effort by Ewers and the passing game

Texas might have dominated the game late were it not for those two fumbles as their rushing attack was giving Washington fits from the start of the game. The final tally on the game was Texas 180 rushing yards to 102 for Washington and the average was 6.4 ypc for Texas to 3.3 for the Huskies. It was all Washington could do to keep mixing in runs simply to run clock or keep Texas honest, although they did successfully finish two drives with scoring runs.

Had Texas been able to lean into this advantage more, they might have had a chance to take over in the fourth quarter. Instead, this game was close due to two-minute offense drives by Ewers before the half and throughout the fourth quarter. Ewers finished the day 24-43 for 318 yards at 7.4 ypa with one touchdown and zero interceptions.

Washington managed two sacks and three quarterback hurries, most of it coming from standout Edge Bralen Trice who also forced the fumble on Baxter. Ja’Tavion Sanders was predictably a major factor with six catches on eight targets for 75 yards and a score while Blue and Jordan Whittington also did some real damage when the Huskies tried to keep coverage over Sanders and the two future NFL outside receivers Mitchell and Xavier Worthy.

Whittington had four catches on five targets for 70 yards, including a 41-yard fade ball late which gave Texas a shot at the win. Worthy might have lost some draft standing, or improved the standing of Jabbar Muhammad, as the former Cowboy cornerback kept him bottled up most of the night. Blue caught four balls for 45 yards and nearly caught a perfectly thrown wheel by Ewers in the first half which might have gone for a touchdown.

Texas didn’t want to have to lean on the dropback passing game to match Washington’s own passing game. Steve Sarkisian would have preferred a more balanced approach, but the passing game came within inches of delivering the victory all the same.

Quick thought no. 4: Kalen DeBoer picked on every Texas weakness

Every shortcoming evident in the Texas team ended up showing up at some point in this game. The Huskies predictably made a ton of use of spread sets with four receivers (one a flexed out tight end) outside of the box. With four receivers removed, Texas was left to match an inside receiver with a linebacker (often freshman Anthony Hill, Jr) or by dropping down a safety.

In either event, it was a matchup problem which routinely gave Texas fits and made it very difficult to generate pressure. The Huskies were consistently either hitting outlets outside or getting opportunities for their lethal receivers matched up with safeties down the field. It’s an unfortunate mark of this season that Texas had one of their best seasons by a nickel this century (Jahdae Barron) yet were unequipped to stop teams from attacking them by creating a second slot he couldn’t cover.

Those issues also lead to problems getting help on the Husky outside receivers, who overmatched the young and old Longhorn cornerbacks tasked with trying to match them down the field. Texas’ inability to make anything of the matchups outside with the Husky offensive tackles paired very poorly with their inability to match up with four-wide spread formations. There was little pressure or anything to stop Penix from diagnosing and carving up the Texas defense whenever the Huskies wanted to throw.

If not for great run defense and a muffed punt by Washington in the first half, Penix could have totally dominated the game and kept Texas at arm’s length throughout most of the contest. He even repeatedly torched Texas on some quarterback power-read concepts the Huskies unexpectedly mixed in, turning three carries into 31 yards while also helping loose some sweeps outside which picked up first downs for Washington.

Quick thought no. 5: Still a championship season

Texas had a great shot at a National Championship this season. They were favored against the Huskies and obviously came very close to overcoming the more veteran team in the final moments. In a hypothetical matchup with Michigan they would likely have been only slight underdogs and had an interesting chance owing to their brilliant defensive tackle tandem facing the Wolverines’ power run game. The opportunity was missed.

College football is changing though. The playoffs expand to 12 teams next year and participating will be a nearly annual expectation for teams at Texas’ level, even with the more difficult SEC schedule. Winning multiple rounds of high stakes football will be what counts and the opportunities will be there.

But Texas did something in 2023 they could never do again. They won the Big 12 Championship. That title pulled Texas out of a long run of underachievement as a program. It included the development of several winning players who will now be drafted and participation on the big playoff stage. Missing a shot at National Championship is a painful conclusion to the season for the ‘Horns, but it’s a much better ending than they’ve had in quite some time. It looks like Sark has the Longhorns in good position for this upcoming era of college football.

 

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Richard Justice: The Texas Longhorns’ Winning Culture Is Built to Last Beyond This Season

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The Texas Longhorns were about to close out the game. They could feel it in their bones. As head coach Steve Sarkisian had told them before Monday’s national semifinal versus the University of Washington: “We didn’t come this far just to come this far.” Later, as players and coaches dissected a gut punch of a 37–31 loss, they kept coming back to that feeling. How they believed they were going to write their own ending.  How this season was different from all those other seasons when Texas routinely folded with games on the line.

How, with fifteen seconds remaining in Monday’s game, they were about to put the finishing touch on a game that would validate the rebirth of football on the Forty Acres. “I was just so sure we’re going to win it,” Texas wide receiver Jordan Whittington said. “But you know, sometimes stuff doesn’t go your way. . . . We felt magical, the whole time that we felt like it was already written.”

The Longhorns may have believed, but they also got beat up plenty, which is the way things go in a contest between two tested, confident, championship-caliber teams. While this defeat cost the Longhorns a berth in next week’s national championship game, it should not diminish the program’s overall comeback story.

Texas is back. In Sarkisian’s third season, he has proven that he’s the right man to lead the Longhorns, and that he has built something that will endure as the team prepares to compete against the football powers of the Southeastern Conference and in a 2024 season with Georgia, Michigan, and Texas A&M on the schedule.

The 12–2 Longhorns will exit the Big 12 next summer as conference champions in football for the first time since 2009, marking the end of a period of decline that lasted more than a decade. Texas players and coaches will take comfort in that as they recover from the sting of Monday’s defeat in New Orleans. In this one, though, they clawed to within twelve yards of victory on a night when Washington outplayed the Longhorns for long stretches of the game.

Heisman Trophy finalist Michael Penix Jr. blistered an overmatched Texas secondary for 430 passing yards and two touchdown throws without an interception against a pass defense that had been UT’s Achilles’ heel all season long. He was so precise in his offensive execution that Penix’s NFL draft stock likely soared as he led the Huskies to scores on five of their first seven possessions, beginning with a 77-yard touchdown throw to Ja’Lynn Polk.

Texas fans saw firsthand why Washington’s Rome Odunze is expected to be one of the first three wide receivers taken in this spring’s NFL draft, and why Washington’s offensive line is arguably the nation’s best. The Longhorns defensive line, dominant for much of the season, barely laid a hand on Penix.

Meanwhile, the Longhorns were flagged for ten penalties, committed two turnovers, and struggled to convert on third downs. UT’s star wide receiver, Xavier Worthy, was barely a factor, with just two catches. Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers started slowly, completing just one of his first five passes. His final numbers—24 of 43 for 318 yards and a touchdown—were decent. But in the end, Penix still had a better game.

The Huskies opened up a 10-point lead in the third quarter, and when Grady Gross kicked a 27-yard field goal to put Washington up 37–28 with 2:40 remaining, the Longhorns were on the brink of defeat. Sarkisian later said his team’s response in this moment made him more proud than any other aspect of their performance. Texas refused to give up and wound up creating a chance to tie or win in the game’s waning seconds.

“The resiliency our team showed in that fourth quarter to have an opportunity to win the game, I think, is indicative of the character we have on this team and the men that we have in the locker room,” he said. “Those guys are fighters; they fought together. It was bleak there, but they never gave up hope. They believed, and I think that’s how you give yourself a chance in the end.”

The score was 37–31 Washington when the Texas defense stopped the Huskies and gave the Longhorns a final crack at victory with 41 seconds to play. Ewers completed a 41-yard pass to Whittington, then a 16-yarder to running back Jaydon Blue at the Washington 12-yard line with 15 seconds left on the clock.

At that point, every Longhorn believed he knew how this was going to play out. This was their chance to have a Vince Young moment. Sarkisian, a master play-caller, surely had one more trick up his sleeve. Only this time the Longhorns were reminded that other teams have dreams too, and that other teams believe they’re going to be the ones to write the ending.

Ewers completed his last pass of the evening—and possibly the last of his Longhorns career—to Blue for a loss of one yard with ten seconds remaining. He then was unable to connect on three straight throws, the last for Adonai Mitchell broken up by a Washington defender as the Huskies clinched a trip to Houston, where they’ll face Michigan for the national title on Monday. “We all went out there as a team and we fought our butt off,” Mitchell said. “We just played a great team. We didn’t capitalize the way we wanted to. We had a lot of mistakes on the field.”

Ewers offered no hint on whether he’d return to UT or head for the NFL. He has until January 16 to decide, but his backup, Arch Manning, is one of the most heralded recruits in Texas history. Regardless, fans shouldn’t worry about Texas sliding back into mediocrity next season. Sarkisian’s 2024 recruiting class is rated the second-best in the country by Rivals.com, and there’s more talent coming via the NCAA transfer portal.

In the weeks leading up to the Washington game, Sarkisian revealed more of himself than he had previously. He spoke of his dismissal from Southern California for issues related to alcohol in 2015. He thanked Alabama’s Nick Saban for adding him to his staff and, in doing so, resurrecting his career and putting him on a path to Austin. But that was only a small part of what Saban did for him.

The Alabama coach requires his coaches to undergo thorough physicals, and it was in one of those in 2020 that doctors detected a life-threatening heart aneurysm caused by a leaky valve. “One of our physicians . . . called me and said, ‘We’ve got a problem,’ ” Jeff Allen, Alabama’s associate athletic director for sports medicine, told ESPN. “Never had we seen something this dire, or this critical, that had to be managed, and managed immediately.”

Sarkisian was told he had what doctors call a widow-maker. Loreal Sarkisian said her husband would have had a 5 percent chance of living if his aorta had ruptured. “He would’ve dropped dead,” she told ESPN. “It was just a matter of time.” Sarkisian, who now has a twelve-inch scar down the middle of his chest, recalled having to relearn how to walk and talk. “Anytime I talk about my journey, my career,” he said, “I would not be here without Nick Saban.”

When Sarkisian interviewed for the Texas job in 2019, he pointed out that the team had more wide receivers than offensive linemen on scholarship. This, he told his future bosses, was nuts. “He understood that our roster had to change,” athletic director Chris Del Conte told 247Sports. “He pointed out we had eight offensive linemen on the roster and eighteen wide receivers. He’s like, ‘Guys, this is not constructed right, but here’s the plan.’ ”

Great football teams are dominant in three areas: offensive line, defensive line, and quarterback. This may have been Sarkisian’s way of warning Texas administrators that the reconstruction of UT football would not be accomplished overnight, and certainly not without some pain. In that way, he provided a backdrop for teams that would go 5–7 and 8–5 in his first two seasons as head coach.

Behind the scenes during those shaky 2021 and ’22 campaigns, as fans and reporters questioned whether Sarkisian was on his way to becoming another failed Texas coach, the culture around the team was changing, and quickly. “You’ve heard him talk about it recently, but he came in with a multiyear plan to build the program—and its culture—and took the route of doing it perhaps more slowly, but in a more lasting way,” Texas president Jay Hartzell told 247Sports. “We were supportive of that and saw the signs of progress, even in the five–seven first year.”

Del Conte told the Athletic: “He was beyond prepared for the moment, beyond prepared for the job. Everything he said in our interviews has come to fruition in terms of how he was going to build out his program.” Sarkisian’s 2022 and 2023 recruiting classes were ranked fifth and third nationally, according to Rivals.com. He worked the transfer portal brilliantly, snagging Ewers and Mitchell there, among other key contributors to the Longhorns’ success.

The coach also built the Longhorns internally, initiating meetings in which players shared stories about where they’d come from to build trust. Sarkisian spoke passionately about the team spirit he was working to build. “That’s how you really get to know the guy next to you and build a loving bond,” he said. “I asked them to be vulnerable, and I would go first.”

The Longhorns lost just one regular-season game this season, to Oklahoma, 34–30, in week six. To refocus the Longhorns on their greater goals, Sarkisian had a message ready to greet the Texas players two days later at the team’s Monday morning meeting. It read: “BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME!!!!” Texas won seven in a row after that, culminating in a 49–21 rout of Oklahoma State in the Big 12 championship game.

Meanwhile, Ewers got better and better, throwing ten touchdown passes in his last five games leading into the semifinal. Worthy and Mitchell became a game-breaking wide receiver duo. Even when star running back Jonathon Brooks suffered a season-ending knee injury in week ten against TCU, freshman CJ Baxter and sophomore Jaydon Blue filled in nicely. T’Vondre Sweat anchored one of the country’s best defensive lines.

Texas can expect to face a tougher road to a one-loss season next year in the SEC, but with the College Football Playoff expanding to a twelve-team format in 2024, the Longhorns might not need to be almost perfect to play their way into the national semifinals. “It’s tough, especially losing a close game like this,” Ewers said after Monday’s game. “Even though you take a step back and you look back at the entire season, I’m proud of the way we attacked each week. For us to have the opportunity to even play here, I know the whole team is beyond grateful for this opportunity we had.”

Ian Boyd: Why Texas came up short in the playoffs

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For some it may be enough to say, “Texas wasn’t quite good enough” and look ahead to the offseason. There’s no use in evaluating future roster moves without a clear-eyed view of where this team needs to improve to see better results in the future. Texas appeared to have a highly competitive squad heading into the playoffs but the Washington Huskies revealed a number of warts in the team that the Big 12 could not.

The Longhorns’ overall pass defense was exposed on a number of levels, the offense was thrown out of rhythm and reverted to its form against K-State with costly turnovers, and red zone struggles naturally showed up with the season on the line. Obviously the Longhorns were close, extremely close, to having a National Championship caliber team. But there were a few weak spots to shore up in future rosters and with future gameplans to take them up the final plateau.

An untested pass defense

Ironically, the Big 12 is no longer really built to spread out a defense and attack 1-on-1 matchups as it once was. Oklahoma did it some in the Red River Shootout and Texas was clearly vulnerable in that exchange. Houston, TCU, and Kansas State also mixed in this approach but none of them had particularly good personnel for the task, even though they all also found some vulnerabilities.

The 2023 season was a far cry from say, 2018, when the league was stacked with teams that could pick you apart in space. The addition of the Flyover Defense has completely transformed the league from being a HUNH (hurry-up, no-huddle) spread league with teams flying up and down the field to one in which squads are now built to run the ball.

As a result, Texas had a few weaknesses to its pass defense which didn’t get exposed like it would have been in the pre-Flyover Big 12. One of those weaknesses was a lack of answers against teams employing four-wide formations. The Longhorns didn’t care to have their two big inside linebackers Jaylan Ford and Anthony Hill Jr. vacate the box and they particularly weren’t keen on asking much of young Hill in coverage.

If teams played with three-wide sets and a blocking-focused tight end, Texas would play a light box and outnumber the receivers in coverage and smother the pass game. But when teams got into four-wide, it was a step further than Texas was really comfortable matching.

Pete Kwiatkowski’s Texas scheme still needs a little work. He prefers to play with a 6-man box and nickel personnel but if you’re not a base, single-high defense (and Texas isn’t) you start to run out of answers for how to cover a 4-wide team unless at least one of the linebackers can drop in and out of the box. There’s a few ways they could fix this, some of which just involve more versatile personnel on the field, but it needs to be addressed.

The other glaring problem was a familiar one for Texas from the last few years. The Longhorns got virtually zero pressure on the perimeter against the Huskies. They didn’t even get any push to prevent Michael Penix Jr. from sidestepping inside pressure generated by Hill or Byron Murphy. This was also an issue against the Sooners, the other team Texas faced this season who had future pros at their offensive tackle positions.

You don’t face NFL offensive lineman at offensive tackle every week in the SEC but you tend to see it more often than in the Big 12 and it’s certainly a more common occurrence in the playoffs. Finally, Texas’ athletic young cornerbacks were baptized in fire by the Husky receiving corps. Freshman Malik Muhammad and sophomore Terrance Brooks weren’t yet at a stage where they could check the likes of Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk.

It’ll come with time, it’s very common for young cornerbacks to slowly harness the different tricks of the trade which allow them to hold up better in 1-on-1s. It’s not simply a matter of whether you’re fast enough. The footwork, hand placement, film study, and anticipation of routes all take time to master. It’s clear now the extent to which the Longhorn pass defense has to improve to have a realistic chance at winning in the playoffs.

Red zone offense

The Longhorns got better and better at solving their issues in the red zone late in the season but they still had two defining weaknesses they struggled to overcome. A lack of short-yardage punching power across the interior O-line and a hesitant quarterback who struggles to get through progressions in time to fit the ball into tight windows.

Texas’ lack of a mauling run game didn’t burn the Horns as badly in the Sugar Bowl but an inability to fire the ball into a receiver against red zone coverage was the reason UT failed to steal a win late in the game.

The timing is pretty poor. Quinn Ewers sees the matchup but has to lay the ball up early with pressure in his face. He gives the ball some air to give Mitchell time to get to the spot he’s throwing to and that air, combined with the height of the ball, gives the defender a chance to break and swat it away. Better protection might have allowed Ewers to pause a beat and zip it in lower and harder, or perhaps he could have just placed it a little better anyways.

At any rate, Texas’ execution of these sorts of red zone plays was off all year and are an obvious place for Sark to meaningfully improve next season.

Texas lost the Red River Shootout

It was always difficult to imagine the Texas Longhorns as National Champions when they had the unseemly blemish of a loss in the Red River Shootout.

For decades that game has served as a sort of in-season playoff game. Spare me the notes about how the loser of the game has won the Big 12 Championship on a few occasions, it’s true but you haven’t seen that team win the National Championship. Under the established rules for determining champions leading up to the upcoming, expanded playoff, losing a neutral site game to Oklahoma (or vice versa) meant you weren’t the rightful king. It’s never happened that the loser of the game should then claim a national title.

This will change by rule in the future. It’s almost inevitable that a 10-2 team will enter the expanded playoff despite having lost a normally season-defining rivalry game and go on to win the National Championship. We saw something close to it a year ago when Ohio State got thumped by Michigan and still made the playoff and nearly took down Georgia. The Buckeyes would have been a lock to defeat TCU in the Final.

Yet even when this is the case, it’s basically disqualifying in a sort of spiritual sense to lose the Red River Shootout. So much goes into that game on both sides, emotionally and physically, and the Sooners live to show up the Longhorns in that setting. While an expanded playoff robs that game of some of its power, it’s hard to imagine a Texas team failing that test and going on to establish a team identity capable of surviving the playoffs. Whatever shortcomings cost the loser of the Red River Shootout in a given year are nearly a lock to resurface when it matters most later in the season.

Texas’ inability to put together a winning defensive gameplan against OU’s spread offense, or to convert in the red zone against the Sooner defense, showed up again when they faced Washington. Winning in Tuscaloosa this season was particularly meaningful for Texas, but in 2024 and beyond the Longhorns need to treat the Red River Shootout as the definitive early proving ground.

Justin Wells: Sugar Bowl revealed things about the team, future of Texas program

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In My Humble Opinion, the 2024 Sugar Bowl revealed a few things about this team and the future of the program. The better team won. Penix, Trice, offensive tackles, and Three Amigos at WR. But Texas still almost won after double-digit penalties, two big-drive/red zone fumbles, and giving up big plays on defense. QB Quinn Ewers was the highest-graded Longhorn vs Washington on Monday night, per PFF. He played with true grit in the second half, running for another 60 yards.

Think that’s important looking early to 2024. UT’s corners didn’t play poorly, UW’s receivers are obviously badasss. Penix helped, looking like a left-handed version of former UW QB Warren Moon. Texas was down 13 late in the fourth and one play away from a national title berth in Year 3 of the Steve Sarkisian era. Letting that marinate.

The more I think about it, the more I wish Sark would’ve considered leaning on the run more after it was an obvious mismatch benefiting Texas. He wanted to outscore a high-scoring team, I get it. Michigan will attempt this next Monday night, possibly better equipped. Texas is losing a chunk of the loyal, overlapping players that bled for the program. Whittington. Sweat. JTS. Worthy. Murph Dog. Built Ford tough. Mr. Jones. The NFL awaits most, which will further boost the recruiting pitch.

But the underclassmen bring a baseline of talent and potential that establish dynasties. Big, fast, smart, (some) experienced, hungry, and maintaininers of the culture. Banks. Ewers. AHJ. Manny. Raptor. Giant OL. TB8. BBB at RB. Johntay. Wingo. Sydir. Colin Simmons from back-to-back 6A state champs. Then, in true maximizing fashion, the Portal/NIL world. Adding three NFL caliber, all conference players to must-add spots; Mukuba, Moore, and the Golden Child. This bunch is squared up heading into the off-season. Sarkisian has the pieces in place for another fun ride in 2024.

 

[satyanash 15584]

Eric Nahlin: What I got wrong about the Sugar Bowl

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In order to bring closure to the Sugar Bowl, but not necessarily the season, I need to go over some aspects of the game I got wrong. There were also some things I got right-ish that didn’t go UT’s way as much as the staff expected.

1. Washington dictated the game

This I did not foresee. I thought the Huskies could go score for score but I didn’t think they’d exert game control throughout. Some of this was aided by UT’s own mistakes but also quality, consistent play from Washington’s playmakers. U-Dubs ability to dictate the game was largely a byproduct of…

2. Texas’ run game

I almost went with ‘inability to run the ball’ but that wouldn’t be accurate. Texas had the ability to run the ball and did for 180 yards at a robust average. Texas simply didn’t have enough runs, partially thanks to game context. Texas has tremendous confidence it would be able to run the ball coming into the game. Therefore we had tremendous confidence they would be able to run the ball (there were signs for a potential massive game for Blue all night) but too many self-inflicted wounds and big plays from Washington had Texas playing from behind.

3. Self-inflicted wounds

Texas simply can’t perform that way in the biggest game of the year. I’ve seen an inordinate amount of blame for the defense compared to the offense’s penalties and carelessness with the ball. This was a team loss. Pre-snap penalties have been an issue all season and in season’s prior. I didn’t expect Texas to be its own worst enemy, though that’s the quickest path to a loss. Like many of you, it reminded me of the OU game early on as well as throughout.

4. 50/50 balls

This was a big emphasis in IT’s coverage. For Texas to slow down the Washington passing attack the secondary had to win its share of 50/50 balls. Washington deserves a lot of credit. They did what they had done all year and made plays when the ball was in the air. This is the miss in my pre-game coverage that bothers me the most. I shouldn’t have been as confident in UT’s ability to play the ball in the air.

5. Texas’ O-line struggles

There were far too many breakdowns in pass blocking. Part of the issue was lack of run-game and U-Dub’s game control forcing Texas to throw the ball too frequently — too predictably.

I’m sure I have some other misses but those are the ones that stand out. We knew what Texas had to do to win the game, but in the end they weren’t able to accomplish those keys to the game. The Sugar Bowl is behind me but I’ll still have some content from the season. I’ll be working on insider notes on individual players as well as position groups.

Joe Cook: How the Longhorns' 2023 stats compare to the other two 14-game seasons in Texas football history

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The Texas Longhorns played in 14 games during the 2023 season, with the Big 12 Championship and Allstate Sugar Bowl functioning as the two bonus games on top of the 12-game regular season. Texas has played 14 games on two other occasions in program history. The first was in 2009, when the Longhorns went 12-0, won the Big 12 over Nebraska for win No. 13, and lost to Alabama in the BCS National Championship in game 14.

It would be almost a decade until the Horns played that many games. In 2018, the Sam Ehlinger-led horns went 9-3 in the regular season and earned a berth in the Big 12 Championship. There, they lost to the Oklahoma Sooners but topped the Georgia Bulldogs in the 2019 Sugar Bowl. The wait wasn’t as long this time, only five years. But it’s time for a look at the offensive and defensive numbers recorded in each of those three seasons.

2009

Total yards: 5897 yards on 1053 plays with 57 touchdowns

Total rushing yards: 2066 yards on 513 attempts with 28 touchdowns

Total passing yards: 3831 yards on 362-for-540 passing with 29 touchdowns and 16 interceptions

Yards allowed: 3527 yards on 918 total plays with 23 touchdowns

Rushing yards allowed: 1013 yards on 458 attempts with 9 touchdowns

Passing yards allowed: 2514 yards on 255-for-460 passing with 14 touchdowns and 25 interceptions

2018

Total yards: 5758 yards on 1045 plays with 54 touchdowns

Total rushing yards: 2143 yards on 569 attempts with 24 touchdowns

Total passing yards: 3615 yards on 310-of-476 passing with 28 touchdowns and six interceptions

Yards allowed: 5499 on 982 plays with 44 touchdowns

Rushing yards allowed: 1839 yards on 486 attempts with 18 touchdowns

Passing yards allowed: 3660 on 300-of-496 passing with 26 touchdowns and 12 interceptions

2023

Total yards: 6685 yards on 1002 plays with 59 touchdowns

Total rushing yards: 2638 yards on 527 carries with 29 touchdowns

Total passing yards: 4047 yards on 317-of-475 passing with 25 touchdowns and nine interceptions

Yards allowed: 4714 yards on 900 plays with 30 touchdowns

Rushing yards allowed: 1153 yards on 397 yards with 9 touchdowns

Passing yards allowed: 3561 yards on 307-of-503 passing with 21 touchdowns and 16 interceptions

Kirk Bohls: Quinn Ewers may not be a Michael Penix Jr., but no one else is

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NEW ORLEANS — Texas met its match. In a rematch, of all things. As he did in last year’s Alamo Bowl, Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. once again overshadowed Texas’ own outstanding Quinn Ewers in the Sugar Bowl on Monday night with as impressive a quarterback performance as these eyes have ever witnessed. Probably on a par with Vince Young’s handiwork — and legwork — in the 2006 Rose Bowl to claim Texas’ last national championship.

Ewers unfortunately couldn’t duplicate VY’s legendary game and no longer has a shot at the school’s fifth national championship since Washington will take on top-ranked Michigan on Monday in Houston.

But even though he was never really in sync all night, Ewers had his team on the brink of a huge comeback victory after trailing by 13 with 11 minutes to play. Despite leading Texas from its own 31 to the Washington 12-yard line, the threat bogged down when with a single second remaining, Ewers’ fourth-down pass to Adonai Mitchell in the end zone was batted away by Huskies’ Elijah Jackson.

That drive fizzled. But Penix sizzled all night long. And that was the difference as the Longhorns’ magical season ended with a 37-31 loss to the No. 2 Huskies in the College Football Playoff semifinals in the Sugar Bowl. Not that a 12-2 season is anything to sneeze at.

It just wasn't Texas' night in New Orleans

In truth, however, this was as poorly played a game as Texas produced all season long. The Longhorns ran the ball spectacularly, but the secondary suffered a barrage of pinpoint passes from Penix. The defensive line stuffed Washington’s run game but didn’t record a single sack and very few hurries. Texas had more than its share of penalties and the Longhorns’ all-star tandem of receivers Xavier Worthy and Mitchell were no-shows for more than three quarters when Ewers just could not find them.

Ewers, who fell to these same Huskies in last year’s Alamo Bowl, has to be a little weary of losing to Penix although he has plenty of company. By exposing the Longhorns' defense with 430 passing yards — third-most in Sugar Bowl history — and two touchdowns and particularly picking on cornerbacks Ryan Watts and Terrance Brooks, Penix extended college football's longest active win streak to 21 straight games. The Huskies (14-0) are damn good.

While the Longhorns must really upgrade their secondary and pass rush before next season, they also could use another year of seasoning from Ewers. The redshirt sophomore didn’t directly address his NFL decision that's due by Jan. 16, but he sounded as if he's inclined to return to school.

That’d be the wisest choice. While Ewers had an erratic performance, he ran the ball better than he had all season, he connected with the supernatural Mitchell for a spectacular touchdown in the fourth quarter on the same series when Ewers and Worthy had teamed up for a 38-yard strike five plays earlier. He threw for 318 yards — his eighth 300-yard game of the season — but almost had as many incompletions (21) as completions (24).

“I'm a human being, and I understand what's ahead,” said Ewers, who has a 16-6 record as a starting quarterback. “But at the same time, there's a long ways in between here and a year from now. A lot can happen in 365 days. But I know that we're going to work as hard as we can to try to be back. And that's all we can really do, is attack the offseason the right way and just continue to build this team to what it's capable of being.”

Quinn Ewers 'gave us a chance to win' at the end

Sounds encouraging for a third season for Ewers on the Forty although some are itching for Arch Manning to take over. The glut of great quarterbacks in this year’s NFL draft should also give him pause since USC's Caleb Williams, North Carolina's Drake Maye, Oregon's Bo Nix, LSU's Jayden Daniels, Washington State's Cam Ward and, of course, Penix could push down Ewers’ status as an NFL prospect.

Head coach Steve Sarkisian bragged on his quarterback even though Ewers was under pressure a lot and got off to a ragged start. His first four passes were incomplete. He had several passes tipped at the line of scrimmage. He had just 61 yards passing on his first six offensive series. Ewers also conceded that he did hit his head hard on the ground in the second half and was examined and cleared for a return to play.

“I thought Quinn had a really gutsy performance tonight,” Sarkisian said. “I thought he utilized his legs extremely well. I thought he had made some big-time throws at critical moments, especially late in the ballgame. Gave us a chance to win. That doesn't happen unless he's played his heart out and making some really big-time throws for us.”

What now for Ewers: Should he stay or should he go?

Ewers may not be in Penix’s league, but very few if any others are. Penix was the Heisman runner-up this year and very easily could have taken home the hardware but for the 50-touchdown output of LSU’s Daniels.

“Penix got hot,” Sarkisian said. “They made some big plays down the field. And when they extended the lead, we got a little bit out of our gameplan to try to fight our way back into it. I think there were times we did create some pressure. We just couldn't get him on the ground. And that was probably the most frustrating part. He was elusive in the pocket.”

Penix also had a couple of nice gains on designed runs, a new wrinkle in Washington’s gameplan, and got two 100-yard receiving performances out of Rome Odunze and Ja'Lynn Polk. Texas, meanwhile, could coax just six catches for 77 yards out of its dynamic pair with 39 of those yards coming in the last half of the fourth quarter.

It might be as simple as the experience factor because the left-handed Husky is one of Washington’s nine sixth-year starters while Ewers was making just his 22nd career start. Penix has won 25 of 27 starts after a three-year stint at Indiana. Overall, Penix has 44 starts, twice Ewers' count, and has passed for more than 13,000 career yards with 93 touchdowns.

Ewers also missed two entire games this season and last year missed three games and three-quarters of a fourth. Similarly, Alabama’s Jalen Milroe had his ups and downs this season and managed to throw for only 116 yards against Michigan’s vaunted defense in the Crimson Tide’s loss in the Rose Bowl. In this day and age, it’s critical to have a highly productive quarterback if a team hopes to claim a championship.

Ewers has been that most of his time at Texas, but he can always improve. Should he return, he’ll be behind a veteran line with terrific running backs like Jonathon Brooks, CJ Baxter and Jaydon Blue and promising but very young receivers.

The potential and expected loss of Worthy, Mitchell, Ja'Tavion Sanders and Jordan Whittington would deprive him of his top four pass-catchers although the return of freshmen Johntay Cook II and DeAndre Moore and the arrival of five-star Ryan Wingo and Parker Livingstone as well as Houston transfer Matthew Golden will provide some serious talent waiting in the wings.

Ewers couldn’t really explain how Washington took Worthy and Mitchell out of Texas’ gameplan. Nor could Worthy, who said, “I couldn’t tell you.” “It’s hard to say why I didn’t do certain things,” Ewers said. “And I don’t like to play the what-if game at all.” That’s sort of a strange answer since the absence of two of the most dynamic receivers in football pertains not so much to what-if as what-the-heck.

But it was kind of in keeping with a head-scratcher of a game since Texas just did not look like itself. That includes the normally reliable and underappreciated Ewers, but he might resemble his normal self more next year with a third season if he chooses to come back. Or who knows, maybe he’ll even resemble Michael Penix Jr.

 

[Yesh 961]

Did Scipio do postmortems?

[satyanash 15584]

On 1/5/2024 at 10:22 AM, Yesh said:

Did Scipio do postmortems?

(Scipio Tex) Washington Huskies Football Post Mortem: Offense

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The Prussian military theorist Clausewitz opined that everything is simple in war, but the simplest things are hard. That’s explained by friction. The gap between a plan and what actually happens. These frictions are not just individual, but cumulative. They aggregate and can change the nature of the original problem, as something small cascades into a disaster. How Texas might falter on offense against a Washington defense that could not match them athlete for athlete was easy to predict. Penalties, turnovers, executional mistakes. Self-imposed frictions.

How Washington helped Texas towards that inconsistency was not as predictable, but it was the critical factor in the Huskies advancing to the national title game. The marginal frictions they might impose, absent the ability to dominate many matchups outright. Arguably, no defense Texas faced this year did a better job of scouting the Longhorns globally or situationally. Then when the Texas talent disparity and stretches of solid execution wore on the Huskies, Washington held on just enough.

Despite Texas gaining nearly 500 yards and over 6.4 yards per carry paired with 318 passing yards, it was the inability to gain 12 more yards in the final seconds that froze the final 31 on the board for the Horns and not a winning 38. Turnovers, penalties and the speed of adjustment between what Sark knew was available in theory vs adjusting to the frictions of what was actually happening led to a relative underperformance.

The game was a battle between what Sark wanted to do early vs. the reality of events, handicapped by clever frictions imposed by Washington, who deconstructed our formational tendencies and personnel and made big bets on small advantages. Later, Texas was derailed by frictions imposed by player error and the occasional bad call. When trailing by double digits late, the margins of error grow less kind. Washington defense – through effective scouting – created a “just good enough to win” Texas specific game plan, even though they were outmatched overall.

A Bias Towards Aggression

Washington brought it up front. In part, because they frequently ignored the run (more accurately, had some individual players ignore it) and chose calculated risks on neutral or run downs. Watching the Texas defense dutifully respect a play action fake on a 3rd and 7 or a 2nd and 10 while getting drilled for 430 yards through the air demonstrates just one difference in opponent-tailored tactics. Twists and stunts, moving personnel around (Trice as a standup interior blitzer, for example), immediate pressure alignments up front paired with safeties deep and a lack of check down defenders and ignoring containment (why Ewers scrambled effectively) were early hallmarks of their game plan. They didn’t concern themselves much with gap soundness down to down. They wanted early havoc on Sark’s likely early script.

They did the math on how havoc could set us back weighed against the potential punishments (watch our second run-oriented dominant drive) and committed to stealing a few possessions. On the third play of the game, Texas converted a 2nd and 15 with a 16 yard run where Baxter didn’t have contact in the first 14 of those yards. Washington shrugged and kept at it. Texas then threw the ball three times in a row and punted. Some frictions are self-imposed.

Texas indiscipline derailed the Texas run game in many forms. It’s fitting that the first play of the game was a penalty. Texas had ten infractions overall, most of them on offense consisting of procedure penalties or holds. Several times, Texas miscues made a neutral or run friendly down into a passing down. Sometimes our run abandonment was puzzling, other times it was simply forced by player error.

UW had a good multi-level scout that revealed an understanding of our personnel and passing game formational preferences. The first sack that Christian Jones surrendered to Bralen Trice came on an inside move, #70s career-long weakness. Most teams are reluctant to allow an edge to attack inside for containment reasons and Jones was rarely exposed this year. Beyond the individual scout on Jones and the willingness to give Trice 4 quarters of pass rushing carte blanche, Washington had a cheat for that specific play. I’ll explain.

The sack came against a 1st and 10 drive-opening empty set on the third Horn possession of the game. Right after Texas had run the ball down Washington’s throat to tie the game at 7 from 21 personnel. The empty set was an automatic blitz trigger and it allowed Trice to fire off a hard transition to an inside move pass rush with impunity, knowing there’d be no guard help, there is no run game risk and who cares if Ewers somehow evaded him, scrambled and then took a hit?

They were able to put good (their best pass rusher) on a specific bad (#70’s susceptibility to inside moves, magnified by the triggering formation, called at a weird time) in a very specific game context that Texas created. That first down sack against empty meant that another potential run or balanced series was squandered. The drive ends in a 3rd and 27 give up run and a punt.

How did Trice get his other sack? Another tendency attack. Specifically, on a 4th quarter play action throw where we asked the backside guard to handle the opposite edge, assuming that the edge would play the run initially thus minimizing his pass rush. But we’re trailing and Trice didn’t honor run all game. Beyond that, there’s this…

I mentioned this exact protection as a loser that we must avoid in my game preview. Trice got a sack against this protection on Cole Hutson in the Alamo Bowl. He always fires upfield at QB drop depth when he sees this blocking scheme. Trice defeated an inferior athlete in space that we asked to do something impossible.

Trice finished the game with 8 pressures, 2 sacks and 3 tackles for loss. Yes, he’s very good and there’s a reason I highlighted him in my preview, but I hope digging deeper on his two sacks is instructive. They came in a very specific context of Washington’s game plan meeting our inability to perceive a predictable pitfall.

Washington was confident that Trice’s game-ending balance sheet would show he imposed much more havoc on us than our tactics exploited him (via run game, little swing routes, a shovel into his vacated space, generally attacking lack of containment). Good bet. They made a big wager and it paid off.

Turnovers/Penalties/Execution/Batted Balls

Turnovers are not just randomly distributed by the turnover fairy. Washington forced two fumbles on young backs who ran loose with the football. So when Sark did switch to tactics that were murdering the Huskies, Texas was betrayed by player execution. In many ways this play epitomizes the frustrations of this game.

1. Ewers takes easy yards he bypassed (or we didn’t scheme for) early. By design or read.
2. Blue absolutely destroys an inferior athlete in space, demonstrating what Texas could do matched up on 1 on 1 on a low risk play. This kind of athletic deficit matchup was available all game.
3. Blue’s success and desire to maximize the play means he gets loose with the ball (carrying it away from his body sans points of contact) and a Husky DB strips it, clearly armed with a scouting report emphasis to do just that. See CJ Baxter’s opening second half fumble.

Washington knows Texas likes to open games with RPOs (with a bias towards the throw part) early to get linebackers and safeties in conflict. They decided it was best thwarted at the source with active hands, penetration and defensive linemen posting up in likely passing windows to attack low trajectory balls delivered from a lowish release point. It led to an early derail of the Longhorn passing offense and removed a big part of Quinn’s comfort throws. Again, tip your hat to the scouting job.

Texas experienced a lot of frictions and still put up points and yards. Just not enough.

 

[Tex Long 4661]

Quote

...a Husky DB strips it...

Not stripped - looked like Blue dropped it, or maybe butt-fumbled it off of Helms.

[WBT 20970]

He definitely ran into Helm.  The question is why was Helm standing in the way, facing toward his own goalline, and not finding someone to block.

[troph 25213]

I like scipio’s takes, and even with some really astute game planning and risk taking by WA - if Texas players execute we are fine, probably more than fine. That’s youth. This team learned how to win reliably, after squandering leads leading to losses last year. Next year they learn how to be champions and then we keep rolling. Sark and Co could be asked to do more but if the players execute what was asked of them in a tight playoff game they win. I’m good. 
 

btw I imagine WA flipped the script second quarter on against Michigan and had players playing the run and ignoring pass.  Michigan’s defense was just too stifling. 

Edited January 10 by troph

[Irish Wrist Watch 1500]

Woulda, coulda, shoulda...

We shoulda won that game.

Edited January 10 by Irish Wrist Watch

[satyanash 15584]

(Scipio Tex) Washington Huskies Football Post Mortem: Defense/Special Teams

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As I mentioned in my previews, Washington is the rare college offense that can execute like a well-orchestrated rhythm machine of football nerds while also doing YOLO “playmakers make plays” baller things. 99% of college passing offenses are predominantly one or the other and the opposing defense can attack either the offense’s lack of athleticism or indiscipline for stops.

No easy day for Texas in that regard. Washington required Texas to be buttoned up to hold down (stopping was never a realistic premise) their offense. Texas was less than buttoned up. Their fly (and fly routes) were open all too often. When confronted with a high level passing offense, a defensive coaching staff can make a few choices in their month of bowl preparation. They can introduce novelty in scheme and/or personnel to disrupt or they can double down on what they usually do and try to clean up poor execution.

Or some combo of both. The combo means rather than a total reimagining, which can be risky, you introduce a new coverage, intro a new blitz package or two, or roll out a different personnel group to steal a key possession while also making sure the defense doesn’t bust on core staples. Alternatively, pure reinforcement means not complicating things and really nailing down core teachings over 15 practices, geared specifically to the other team’s scouting report. Clear minds, play fast, bring it. You also have to call a good game and not lose many calls before the athletes even get their say.

Unfortunately, Texas accomplished neither. No novelty. No improvement in its base schemes. A regular game plan that exhibited no accompanying benefit of clear assignments or hair-on-fire urgency. Texas chose to do what it do. Something you’d expect to see from an experienced NFL team that played on a Sunday evening and then had a quick Thursday turnaround. Dance with who brung us and make adjustments on the fly in-game.

Unfortunately, the Texas pass defense didn’t brung us to the playoffs. So the “let’s just do what we do” game plan probably began with a fallacy at its inception. Doing what we do on the back end isn’t very good, though facing Behren Morton and Texas Tech’s backup receivers or Alan Bowman (3 passing touchdowns in a blowout) and an outgunned Oklahoma State may have created some illusion of competency for us all.

Players missed assignments, Washington was able to scheme their good on our average repeatedly, there were some down and distance calls that didn’t match game situation – the battle was lost before the ball was even snapped – and Michael Penix Jr and his receivers played out of their minds. That last part didn’t help. Let’s not gloss that over. Washington has some absolute studs.

Penix finished the game 29 of 38 for 430 yards with no forced turnovers, no sacks and a handful of pressures. Terrific pocket presence, accuracy, eyes downfield and an absolute dawg mentality. Allowing 11.3 yards every time he dropped back to pass and nearly 15 yards on every completion is poor, but perhaps there is some solace in the fact that he was more contained in the second half after a first half where he was 11 of 14 for 255 yards and a 18.2 yards per attempt average.

Penix and his receivers exhibited plenty of play that should elicit a hat tip and a whistle of admiration. You shrug and play on. They were going to make plays. Criticizing that is like yelling at the tides. The key question was how many plays the Texas defense could afford to place on a tee and offer free swings? Those errors needed to fit on the fingers of one hand, not two hands and some toes. Plays like this:

In Game 14, allowing an uncovered receiver to split safeties is not ideal and while Penix made some wonderful throws, the throw above happens every Friday night in Texas high school football.

As for personnel usage, Texas ran its normal rotations and introduced no twists (literally) to the game plan. Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat finished with their typical 41 snaps each, Washington ran in a touchdown with our mostly backup DL personnel in the game and Texas never really tried different front mixes to see if bigger edges (Broughton, Collins) or a three man covered G-C-G package with accompanying blitz or edge stunts could alter the pocket.

It’s instructive that Washington’s two best defenders in the game – Bralen Trice and Jabar Muhammad – played every down they were healthy. Washington likely wished they could spell them 10-15 snaps, but they’d rather go out with their best firing the whole magazine in a survive and advance scenario rather than conserve ammo.

It would be difficult for me not to have Murphy in the game 55+ snaps. Or find Collins and Broughton their snaps on the edges or as part of odd fronts rather than dutifully rotating in lesser players like we were playing Rice. In this type of game, I think you want as much good on the field as possible at all times. Also, disposition.

I mean in both senses of the word. I mean orientation to the offense you’re facing and a general sense of emotional urgency. Texas defenders blitzed or rushed cautiously on way too many downs, we never attacked the interior with blitzers until late (and it was moderately effective in forcing resets or early balls – part of Penix’s first half drop off from extraordinary to the second half’s very good) and several times I saw us offering containment rushes on a pocket QB.

Whether strategy or a player resigning to getting beaten by the OL across from him, that dog won’t hunt. Washington’s 280 pound center was uncovered on more than half of our downs. He became a quick-footed double teaming asset rather than a potential bull rush liability. There were also a handful of coverages unsuitable to down and distance.

Like a 3rd and 2 off zone coverage with a vacating LB blitzer that allowed a wide open tight end to take three steps and move the chains during a critical late 4th quarter drive that ended in Washington points. Or asking Michael Taaffe to play a speed out on 3rd and long from an interior safety spot. Does Earl Thomas get to that?

That wasn’t an expression of Husky ballerness. Just basic offensive execution vs. a bad call. We really needed to limit those. On the positive side, Texas predictably stoned the standard Washington run game (Dillon Johnson 21-49) and the defense held up well on money downs (Washington was 4 of 13), in no small part because Kalen DeBoer chose to run on 3rd and 4th and short rather than throw play action. I’m grateful for that.

Overall, Texas bled 532 yards and 37 points. A ton of credit goes to the Huskies and a passing offense that lived up to every bit of hype, but if this defensive effort had been rolled out early in the year against a non-con opponent, the discussion would be how Texas didn’t want to show anything for a quality future opponent. So even while acknowledging Husky passing game excellence, we didn’t fire all of our bullets. I’m not sure we even brought them all to the fight.

Defensive Line

Byron Murphy had some success as a pass rusher and was terrific against the run. He had four hurries and if anyone else had also gotten push with him, they would’ve been sacks or fractional turnover opportunities. Sweat had some terrific moments in short yardage, including one big stop where he took on a double team without even getting down into his stance.

Alfred Collins had some great snaps. Would have liked to have seen him paired more often with a big front or on the edge.

Edge pass rush was non-existent. There were long periods where edges played the I’m-going-to-stand- here-praying-an-interior-player-flushes-Penix-to-me game, but that’s not what we needed or how Penix plays football. I mentioned in the pre-game that this was not a Justice Finkley game. On one possession I watched him get handled in pass protection by Washington’s former walk-on tight end. On the next play, a Husky offensive tackle big-brothered him flat footed and drove him into the ground.

The lack of T/E stunts or twists was notable. Nor did Texas use immediate pressure blitzers to create 1 on 1s inside. If you want to play lots of guys, they should be playing like maniacs. Use depth and energy on games and stunts to force Washington’s OL to at least move their feet and pass off assignments. Watch Washington’s pass rush. Watch ours. Who is going harder? Yeah, surprised me too. I didn’t have that on my bingo card.

Is that because Washington’s front was allowed to line up in different spots, stunt and attack more? Yeah, I think so. It created energy and attitude. Texas had no sacks and three tackles for loss. The least havoc-inducing effort of the year.

Linebackers

I’m not sure if our game plan or Washington’s made them more irrelevant for large stretches, but the net effect was the same. They weren’t attacked in the passing game so much as simply bypassed and ignored. PK didn’t use Hill’s quickness as a rusher and disruptor until late. Why? Blitzes came haltingly from distance, which even cursory scouting predicted would be ineffective. Gbenda played with energy.

Defensive Backs

Terrance Brooks was probably identified as the duck in the Texas secondary. Washington is pretty good at handling Ducks. He surrendered two big catches for over 100 yards total, including a 77 yarder in the 1st quarter in man coverage on the kind of no-man’s land blitz that I was worried about. Ryan Watts also gave up 100+ yards with too much Husky efficiency, but one of them was on an unreal sideline throw and catch that I can’t fault him for. The “going too low” penalty on him was utter nonsense. Muhammad played the best of the bunch, but that’s a relative statement. Tough play here.

Holmes only logged 10 snaps. Jahdae Barron was stretched thin, resulting in a surprisingly efficient targeting of #23 for 9 of 11 for 104 yards. A lot of those successful short throws felt like an exploitation of our coverage more than Jahdae himself. Great tackle by #23 to prevent a first down on 3rd down late in the 2nd half. Prevented Washington points.

Michael Taaffe played winning football. Other than one mental mistake (I think – sometimes when we blow a coverage badly enough, it’s hard to tell the culprit) he was active, engaged, dialed in and brought some pop. Jerrin Thompson in single high triggered an immediate deep route. Derek Williams played like a freshman thrown in cold after the first half.

Special Teams

Keilan Robinson was allowed to return kicks with an arm cast. Not sure about that. Blue was close to getting a big gain on one of his kick returns. Xavier Worthy was clearly at less than 100% laterally, so punt return impact potential was diminished. Auburn did his job. Coverage teams were fine. Texas had advantages here, but couldn’t bring them to bear.

Final Thoughts

Texas had a fatalistic game plan. It’s one thing to admire Washington’s passing game excellence, it’s another not to really compete on the white board with something that plays to Longhorn strengths. Or in the understandable absence of novelty, fail to demonstrate better proficiency in foundational principles with the benefit of extended prep time.

None of this really matters, of course. The game was played, Texas lost a close one in which it brought its C+ game, there are no more opportunities left for the 2023 team, so any future key indicators are big picture. So here’s one to chew on: Texas probably needs to find an outside-the-box thinker, developer within scheme and general coverage mind to complement PK’s fundamental big picture approach in order to optimize.

Now, an accompanying zoom out to an even bigger picture… Texas has a lot to be proud of and a good foundation for the future. The standard has been raised from exhibiting improvement to playoff contender in three years and that’s no small feat. Keep the big picture in mind, don’t be afraid to break things in the quest for excellence and trust that this program is getting much more right than wrong. Happy New Year and Hook ’em!

(Scipio Tex) 2024 Texas: Reloading Or Retrenchment?

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One of the defining characteristics of the Big 12 conference of late is that the best team tends to follow a clear developmental cycle – stink, build, peak, retrench. After their apogee, rather than reload the following year, despite mainstream media front running predictions that they’ll stay on the mountain peak, they see an immediate decline and retrenchment.

The reason for that is simple. Senior-laden teams that lose large numbers to the NFL draft get markedly worse without a massive program talent and development feeder to replace, replenish and rejuvenate the two deep. Historically, Big 12 programs – outside of Oklahoma, a flash of Briles’ Baylor and peak Texas – simply can’t do that.

While there are more than a few predictions I regret having out there in permanent ink, an understanding of development cycles has served me well in fading the dominant teams from prior years that lost key talent. Then I try to put my bets on the teams on a rising trajectory. Even when mass media informs me to beware of “same ‘ol underachieving Texas.”

Baylor’s fade from 12-2 2021 Big 12 champion to 2022’s 6-7 was unsurprising despite the Bears placing 1st in the 2022 Big 12 preseason poll and earning a top 10 preseason national ranking on the strength of their prior year. It’s hard for fans and media to conceive that the players – not the helmets, not the uniform, not inherent program winnerness – made the difference. Baylor lost games because they lost 6 key players to the NFL Draft and some extremely valuable free agent super seniors with massive aggregate starts. So they went from pretty damn good to average. In 2023, horrific.

Baylor’s 2021 title game opponent, Oklahoma State, saw a similar fall. They went from 12-2 and inches from a title to 7-6 (including a losing conference record) in 2022. While their NFL losses were not as dramatic (3) as Baylor, the portal snatched others. The final tally was that they lost their leading tackler, leading WR, best RB, best blocker and nearly everyone in an excellent secondary.

Naturally, they were picked 12th in the 2022 preseason AP Poll. Didn’t quite happen for them, did it? TCU’s fade from the 2022 national title game was also predictable, despite projections that had them in nearly every 2023 preseason Top 15 or 20. They lost 8 players to the NFL Draft (half were elite) and a number of other free agent super seniors, some of them with between 35-50 career starts.

TCU faded from 13-2 to a disappointing 5-7. Their portal class – the informed fan’s argument that TCU could circumvent the traditional developmental rhythms of Big 12 programs – merely proved that most elite program transfers from Bama, LSU and Georgia who couldn’t get significant playing time at their prior stops are not All-Americans waiting to be unleashed. Star rankings matter less the greater the distance the player is from their senior year of high school.

So what’s the point of all this? Texas isn’t a Big 12 team! Actually, we’re about to find out how much Texas is still a Big 12 team. Is Texas subject to the tides of development – albeit less dramatic than TCU, Baylor or OSU’s post-peak decline – or has the program evolved to elite SEC replenishment status?

Notice how many media outlets have already dutifully plugged Texas into next year’s projected Top 5, despite the Horns losing likely as many as 8-10 2024 NFL draft picks and other key seniority losses. Is this lazy recency bias and helmet scouting or a considered opinion that Texas now has more in common with their new SEC brethren?

Is Texas now more akin to masters of the reload Georgia and Alabama than their old conference mates in the Big 12, who are slaves to the peak and troughs of program cycles? Or are we in a transitional phase? If so, on what end of the curve?

Outside of 2019 LSU – which lost a record 14 NFL draft picks from its dominant national championship team and promptly went 5-5 in 2020 as Ed Orgeron battled controversy, coaching without elite assistants and closed captioning technology – the dominant programs in the SEC, namely Georgia and Alabama, reload every year despite seemingly crippling double digit NFL losses.

Georgia lost 10 to the NFL draft last year and a “disappointing 2023” ended with a single loss and Top 5 ranking. We should all be lucky enough to be that disappointing.

If Texas’ DNA is still more of a Big 12 program – subject to developmental cycles – we’ll know it soon enough. And exactly where Texas is in their evolution. If however, Texas has built something different – something consistent with the upper echelons of the SEC – seemingly crippling losses will result not in retrenchment, but in just another reload.

Or perhaps a brief plateau or slight step back with a reconsolidation and a resurgence in 2025. I’m looking forward to finding out.

Ian Boyd: When will Texas have a championship defense like Michigan's?

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I moved to the Ann Arbor, Mich. area from Texas in the summer of 2013. At the time I was largely unfamiliar with Wolverine football with its history and tradition other than recalling the great fun of the 2005 Rose Bowl (2004 season) when Vince Young and Dusty Mangum took down a strong Michigan team in the closing seconds of the game.

Those Wolverines were pro-style on offense and powered by Braylon Edwards, Steve Breaston kick returns, a 6-foot-4 231-pound safety who couldn’t catch Vince Young, and outside linebacker Lamarr Woodley. They were an insanely talented team but couldn’t begin to handle the stress of a player like Young in space.

The 2013 Wolverines I found waiting for me were notable for playing a lot of base 4-3 defense with a 6-foot-2, 240 pound linebacker named Jake Ryan playing as the Sam linebacker rather than deploying a nickel defensive back. He was a really good player, but the approach and thinking behind Michigan’s strategy was clearly dated. It didn’t necessarily get that much better over my time here. Ohio State eventually hired Ryan Day, added more spread passing to their offense, and administered beatdowns of 62-39 and 56-27 to Michigan in 2018 and 2019.

Then Jim Harbaugh adjusted. He hired Mike MacDonald, a position coach with the Baltimore Ravens, in 2021 and installed the 2-4-5 defense. Three years later Michigan just shut down one of the best passing offenses college football has seen in years and claimed the National Championship. What can Texas take from Michigan’s success?

The nature of the 2-4-5

The best way to conceptualize the 2-4-5 defense is as a modern version of the old 3-4 defense which dominated football after Lawrence Taylor showed everyone the way. At 6-foot-3, 245 pounds with a quick first step, violent disposition, and 4.6 speed, Taylor absolutely dominated games coming off the edge. It became obvious that the best way to attack sophisticated passing offenses was to go find the biggest, fastest, meanest people playing the game and position them to flank the offensive line from the perimeter and blow up designs before they could get started.

The 3-4 defense with its ability to alternate blitzing such a player from either edge ruled the day for years until spread offenses forced those big linebackers away from the box and out into space with slot receivers. Defenses eventually solved this problem by downsizing. They’d remove one of the 3-down defensive linemen from the game, replace him with a nickel corner to play over the slot, and play their two Edge linebackers like 4-down defensive ends.

They could still alternate which Edge dropped into coverage or moved around but they could also send both off the edges against the pass or run game without overcommitting the defense by using more than four pass-rushers. In the 2023 College Football Playoffs, three out of the four teams participating utilized the 2-4-5 nickel defense as their primary formation and strategy: the Texas Longhorns, Washington Huskies, and eventual Championship-winning Michigan Wolverines.

Michigan gave Michael Penix Jr. and the Huskies fits all night. He was only 27-for-51 for 255 yards at 5.0 ypa with a touchdown and two interceptions. The Wolverines only sacked him once but they were in his face, compressing the pocket, knocking him over, and ultimately making him quit if you watched to the end of the game. He wanted out of there before the end and appeared injured.

Texas fans exasperated to see Penix missing throws would do well to get a look at how the pocket was affected around him on those misses. Michigan didn’t let him do the same sort of Houdini act, sidestepping pressure behind tackles who were dominating the edge rushers, and they hit him or made him feel them on a large percentage of Washington’s throws.

Michigan also successfully kept defensive backs over the top on Washington’s lethal vertical routes, often by using off-man coverage but always with shifts and disguise. Rather than throwing to spots behind defensive backs for his receivers to go get the ball, Penix was forced to throw under coverage against the Wolverines. It’s why the Huskies were reduced to fighting their way back into the game by throwing repeated outs, screens, and quicks underneath to the tight ends.

Outside receivers Rome Odunze and Ja’Lynn Polk were targeted 19 times and caught nine balls for 124 yards at 6.5 yards per target. Decidedly non-lethal.

When can Texas field a 2-4-5 like Michigan’s?

So Michigan had a National Championship, 2-4-5 defense, hurray for the Wolverines! When will Texas’ version of the scheme be good enough to allow them to stifle an offense like Washington’s and compete in the playoffs against the best passers in the country? There were a number of differences between the two units, some of which will be difficult for Texas to overcome and others it should solve on their current trajectory. I’ll mention what I think are the four biggest steps for Texas to take to match the Wolverines.

1.     Field game-changing Edges.
2.     Find a lockdown cornerback.
3.     Establish team coverage ability.
4.     Teach single-high zone coverages.

The Edges are the obvious place to start. Using Texas lexicon, Michigan had two starting-caliber Bucks and two starting-caliber Jacks, so defensive coordinator Jesse Minter always had fresh pass-rush from the edges. If you add up their totals, the Bucks Josaiah Stewart and Jaylen Harrell combined for 17.5 tackles for loss and 12 sacks on the year. The Jacks, Braiden McGregor and Derrick Moore, combined for 15 tackles for loss and 9.5. sacks.

Compare that to the four main Texas Edges. Ethan Burke and Jett Bush totaled up 12 tackles for loss and 7.5 sacks from Buck while Barryn Sorrell and Justice Finkley added up 7.5 tackles for loss and six sacks from Jack. Or consider the play of Washington tackle Roger Rosengarten, who was tossing Texas Edges into the dirt but incurring repeated penalties trying to block the Wolverines.

Next up, lockdown cornerback. All the talk about Michigan’s more pedestrian recruiting, which is pretty overstated, has frequently ignored 5-star cornerback Will Johnson…

How about team coverage ability? The Edges all knew how to make zone coverage drops (more on that in a moment). Michigan had a pair of smaller, lighter starting linebackers in Junior Colson and Michael Barrett (a converted safety) who could both run and cover. The safeties didn’t really include a single big, alley runner but were almost entirely long athletes who can run and cover. Overall there were no real weak spots in coverage for the Wolverines, everyone on the field knew their job and could move in space. The same hasn’t been true of Texas, who is still rebuilding and teaching the linebacker position and haven’t yet met Michigan’s level of length and athleticism at safety amongst the upperclassmen.

Finally, single-high match zone. It’s very difficult to make the most of the 2-4-5 with its capacity for bringing and dropping big Edges when the coverage behind it is Match Quarters. The two-high nature of Match Quarters asks more of the underneath zone defenders whereas Match 3 makes life simpler for a Buck or Jack dropping into a hook or flat zone. Match 3 is also a useful coverage in general because it can allow a defense to deny the post route, the most dangerous vertical route in football, and it allows the defense to blend two-high and single-high looks to confuse the quarterback.

Pete Kwiatkowski’s 2-4-5 defenses at Washington had many of the blitzes and options Michigan had but those have not been present at Texas as they have not mastered Match 3 coverage. There’s nothing wrong with their two-high coverages, they just don’t maximize the 2-4-5 and hybrid Edges as easily on zone blitzes. Texas’ reliance on man blitzes rather than zone blitzes has repeatedly been an issue in the last two seasons.

Whether or not Texas will make this adjustment remains to be seen but they are recruiting and developing their way to credible solutions to the other three missing components. We’ll see how it goes in the coming years, but even if they never quite match the quality of this Wolverine squad on defense, Steve Sarkisian’s offense will always be an ace in the hole giving them other paths to titles.

 

[Monahorns 39]

Once again the critique on PK is damning.  He didn't put any extra scheme into a playoff game.  Didn't tighten up their base.  And didn't set the D up for fanatical effort.  Wth is he still on the staff?

[Tex Long 4661]

4 minutes ago, Monahorns said:

Once again the critique on PK is damning.  He didn't put any extra scheme into a playoff game.  Didn't tighten up their base.  And didn't set the D up for fanatical effort.  Wth is he still on the staff?

PM Nansen

[BurgleBro 982]

3 hours ago, Monahorns said:

Once again the critique on PK is damning.  He didn't put any extra scheme into a playoff game.  Didn't tighten up their base.  And didn't set the D up for fanatical effort.  Wth is he still on the staff?

No instead he dusted off his well established as shit strategy of delayed blitzing which effectively gave Penix bigger passing widows

[Not a cat 5807]

1 hour ago, BurgleBro said:

No instead he dusted off his well established as shit strategy of delayed blitzing which effectively gave Penix bigger passing widows

Passing widow is appropriate, considering what he did to our secondary.

[LTtxfan 49994]

What Went Wrong for Texas Against Washington in the Sugar Bowl? | 3rd & Longhorn

3rd & Longhorn

 

Derrick Johnson, Alex Okafor, Fozzy Whittaker, Jeremy Hills, Rod Babers, and Nick Shuley are back to recap Texas’ 37-31 loss against Washington in the Sugar Bowl. They break Texas’ struggles in the red zone offensively, their inability to stop Michael Penix Jr. and his deep ball, how the month off leading up to the game impacted them, and what they could have done differently to turn the game around sooner.

3rd & Longhorn is a weekly in-depth Texas Longhorn Football show providing analysis and commentary from Lifetime Longhorn Football Players: Derrick Johnson, Alex Okafor, Fozzy Whittaker, Rod Babers, Jeremy Hills, and Clark Field Collective Founder Nick Shuley. 3rd & Longhorn takes you deep inside the world of Texas Football with a unique perspective from some of the best to ever put on the pads at the 40 acres.