ESPN way too early top 25

[gmr548 16494]

8 hours ago, AnotherLawyer said:

I'm afraid to set my expectations too high with us losing Sweat and Murphy and still having a big question mark in the secondary, but the floor is 12-2. Michigan is losing way more than us, we get Georgia at home, and 0u doesn't have Gabriel under center. Which three do we lose @ChiTownDoc?

I mean I've been sunshine pumping for next year but 12-2 is not the floor lol

#2 is a ranking that initially makes you recoil because of the losses Texas is taking with Sweat-Murphy-Ford on defense and with all of its pass catchers on offense. Then you look at what has already been done in the portal, retaining Alfred Collins, recruiting, etc. and see it is probably survivable. And then you look at what other top programs are losing and all of a sudden you're back around to Texas being right there.

But yeah - floor? Easy enough to see Texas lose at Michigan and lose to Georgia. We avoided a signature Sark head scratcher this year, not a guarantee that happens again. While Texas should be favored, OU is pretty much always a tossup and any of the four November games jump out as a plausible place for a wtf loss. To me I think the floor is 8-4. I think they'll be better than that but it's within the realm of possibility.

Edited January 9 by gmr548

[RomaVicta 29779]

Mightn't a lot of Aggies betting on them get them in? I'm not sure how all of this works, but I think that can affect betting odds.

[gmr548 16494]

1 hour ago, closetohumping said:

Ole miss?  Never thought I’d see them this high

They are absolutely loading up in the portal. They must feel like next year is the year to make a run.

[Reynolds Woodcock 4668]

4 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I mean I've been sunshine pumping for next year but 12-2 is not the floor lol

#2 is a ranking that initially makes you recoil because of the losses Texas is taking with Sweat-Murphy-Ford on defense and with all of its pass catchers on offense. Then you look at what has already been done in the portal, retaining Alfred Collins, recruiting, etc. and see it is probably survivable. And then you look at what other top programs are losing and all of a sudden you're back around to Texas being right there.

But yeah - floor? Easy enough to see Texas lose at Michigan and lose to Georgia. We avoided a signature Sark head scratcher this year, not a guarantee that happens again. While Texas should be favored, OU is pretty much always a tossup and any of the four November games jump out as a plausible place for a wtf loss. To me I think the floor is 8-4. I think they'll be better than that but it's within the realm of possibility.

Very reasonable take, although 4 losses would be extremely disappointing with our schedule and Quinn/almost our entire offensive line returning. Our interior defensive line will take a step down from all world, but I expect our edge and secondary should be improving. How quickly can the new pass catchers adapt?

Michigan will obviously be a good, top 10 team in an unfriendly environment, but it feels a little like Ohio St coming into Austin in 06. They lose a ton, and that should be a very winnable game for us.

Georgia is Georgia, and we’ll need to play our absolute best to win.

Will be favored against OU, @Ark, and @A&M,  but that’s a really tough three games to sweep. 

We should riot if we lose any other game on our schedule.

[conVINCEd 21468]

Sixteen win Steve next year.

[RomaVicta 29779]

3 hours ago, gmr548 said:

I mean I've been sunshine pumping for next year but 12-2 is not the floor lol

#2 is a ranking that initially makes you recoil because of the losses Texas is taking with Sweat-Murphy-Ford on defense and with all of its pass catchers on offense. Then you look at what has already been done in the portal, retaining Alfred Collins, recruiting, etc. and see it is probably survivable. And then you look at what other top programs are losing and all of a sudden you're back around to Texas being right there.

But yeah - floor? Easy enough to see Texas lose at Michigan and lose to Georgia. We avoided a signature Sark head scratcher this year, not a guarantee that happens again. While Texas should be favored, OU is pretty much always a tossup and any of the four November games jump out as a plausible place for a wtf loss. To me I think the floor is 8-4. I think they'll be better than that but it's within the realm of possibility.

I think that's a solid analysis. I think Ewers returning will give us quite a boost (somebody alert the media, RomaVicta has produced a keen insight!). It will be his third year running the offonce offensé which seems to be the time when elite qbs announce themselves. He seemed to still be sort of tentative in his play this past season. I think that will be all gone.

I think Sark is learning from his past errors. He kicks the field goal. I think he will study his play-calling and improve there as well. I think we had a tendency to rely on clever pass plays instead of sticking with a ground game that's eating up 4 yards a play. Put the last seven minutes of the Alabama game on a loop in his office.

I think Michigan will be depleted enough to beat in Ann Arbor. I have no idea how Georgia will look because I so seldom see them play. We gave a highly ranked Alabama team all they could handle in 2022. Our home field advantage has become elite. Should be a hell of a game.

At Arkansas and even at A&M will be tough games. 

I think if we beat Michigan, we'll start rolling like we did in 2005 after winning in the Shoe. It will be better than the roll we got on after Alabama this past season. The Wolverines are not the best team we'll face, but that game, IMO, is the most important game of the season.

Beat Michigan, and I think we only lose one game afterwards. 11-1.  Lose at Michigan, and I think your floor of 8-4 I one game too pessimistic.

Edited January 9 by RomaVicta

[Constant 6722]

Texas A&M was hoping ‘relationship with Dubai’s blood money’ would be a factor slotting them in the top 10. 

[Js1 85101]

6 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

It will be his third year running the offonce

Sounds fancy

[Reynolds Woodcock 4668]

7 minutes ago, Constant said:

Texas A&M was hoping ‘relationship with Dubai’s blood money’ would be a factor slotting them in the top 10. 

[AnotherLawyer 383]

8 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Which 3 or 3?  Happy to bet on over 2 regular season losses.  Schedules are brutal next year.  
 

edit: and no it’s no slam dunk on 3.  But floor implies that’s the worst you’re gonna do.  That’s insane to me.  But for fun I’d put a little on it.  I’d guess vegas sets loss total at 2.  So that would be a push. 

Yeah...which 3 do you see as losses (or more)? UM, Georgia, and...0u? Ole Miss? Someone we shouldn't lose to?

Edited January 9 by AnotherLawyer
Three or more if taking the over?

[closetohumping 17399]

2 as the floor is a bit generous.  There are at least three teams that have us as their jihad game

[satyanash 14281]

Stewart Mandel’s too early Top 25 for the 2024 college football season

1. Georgia (13-1 in 2023) - Georgia will be loaded yet again, especially on defense. The entire front seven that started the Orange Bowl is back, led by defensive linemen Mykel Williams and Nazir Stackhouse, plus linebacker Smael Mondon and defensive back Malaki Starks. Quarterback Carson Beck shined in his first year starting. Georgia loses star tight end Brock Bowers and wide receiver Ladd McConkey, but returns WR Dominic Lovett and TE Oscar Delp. Kirby Smart has added Florida running back Trevor Etienne, Miami WR Colbie Young and Vanderbilt WR London Humphreys.

2. Alabama (12-2) - Star QB Jalen Milroe returns, joined by WRs Isaiah Bond and Kobe Prentice and TEs CJ Dippre and Amari Niblack. Even if RB Jase McClellan turns pro, freshman Justice Haynes is ready for his moment. Three O-line starters return, but the unit needs to improve. The defense loses OLBs Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell and cornerbacks Kool-Aid McKinstry and Terrion Arnold, but freshman safety Caleb Downs was sensational, and LBs Deontae Lawson and Jihaad Campbell are expected back. The secondary adds USC CB Domani Jackson.

3. Oregon (12-2) - Dan Lanning landed the portal’s top QB, Oklahoma’s Dillon Gabriel, to replace Bo Nix. Star WR Troy Franklin is off to the NFL, but Tez Johnson (1,182 yards) and Traeshon Holden return. No more RB Bucky Irving, but Division II All-American Jay Harris joins Jordan James. Left tackle Josh Conerly Jr. leads one of the nation’s top offensive lines. The defense loses some big names, but defensive end Jordan Burch, LB Jeffrey Bassa and DB Tysheem Johnson return, as do promising freshman pass-rushers Matayo Uiagalelei and Teitum Tuioti. Oregon got the Fiesta Bowl ending it needed. Now, the Ducks look to their Big Ten future.

4. Ohio State (11-2) - Since the Cotton Bowl, Ryan Day has landed veteran Kansas State QB Will Howard to replace Kyle McCord, who transferred to Syracuse; star Ole Miss RB Quinshon Judkins (2,725 yards in two seasons); and Alabama OL Seth McLaughlin. Even assuming Marvin Harrison Jr. declares, it’s a deep receivers group with Emeka Egbuka, Carnell Tate and three former five-stars. The Buckeyes’ top-five defense could be even stronger. Defensive end Jack Sawyer, DT Tyleik Williams and DBs Lathan Ransom have announced their returns, and DE JT Tuimoloau, CB Denzel Burke and DB Jordan Hancock may do the same. Howard will take over for Kyle McCord, who will play at Syracuse next season.

5. Texas (12-2) - Assuming QB Quinn Ewers returns, Texas will field another potent offense with RBs CJ Baxter and Jaydon Blue and a strong O-line. Houston transfer WR Matthew Golden will help soften the blow if Adonai Mitchell joins Xavier Worthy in declaring for the draft. Standout DTs T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy move on, but UTSA transfer Trey Moore (14 sacks last season) joins Barryn Sorrell and Ethan Burke as edge rushers. LB Anthony Hill Jr. shined as a freshman. Transfer S Andrew Mukuba made 31 starts at Clemson.

6. Michigan (15-0) - Consider this a place-holder ranking, given the uncertainty surrounding Jim Harbaugh and roughly a dozen players with NFL decisions. For now, let’s assume QB J.J. McCarthy, RB Blake Corum and possibly RB Donovan Edwards leave. Michigan will also lose at least four O-line starters. Star DB Mike Sainristil and LB Michael Barrett are gone, while DT Kris Jenkins and possibly LB Junior Colson will turn pro. But the defense should still be stellar behind CB Will Johnson, DT Mason Graham, LB Ernest Hausmann and S Rod Moore.

7. Washington (14-1) - Four-year Mississippi State starter Will Rogers has the unenviable task of replacing Heisman runner-up Michael Penix Jr. Star WR Rome Odunze will presumably turn pro, as could Jalen McMillan and Ja’Lynn Polk. Sophomore Germie Bernard and Cal transfer Jeremiah Hunter (731 yards) are next up. Standout LT Troy Fautanu and possibly RT Roger Rosengarten could turn pro as well. The defense was senior-heavy, and star DE Bralen Trice is a projected first-rounder, but LB Carson Bruener and CB Elijah Jackson are expected back.

8. Ole Miss (11-2) - Quarterback Jaxson Dart, WRs Tre Harris and Jordan Watkins and TE Caden Prieskorn headline a likely College Football Playoff contender. Star RB Quinshon Judkins was a surprise portal entry, but Ulysses Bentley IV will be back. Meanwhile, Lane Kiffin has loaded up on proven defensive starters, adding DL Walter Nolen (Texas A&M), edges Princely Umanmielen (Florida) and Tyler Baron (Tennessee), and CB Decamerion Richardson (Mississippi State) and Key Lawrence (Oklahoma) to go with returnees like D-linemen Jared Ivey and JJ Pegues.

9. Notre Dame (10-3) - The Irish should return much of their top-five defense, led by All-American S Xavier Watts, DT Howard Cross and CB Benjamin Morrison. Marcus Freeman has made some big gets on offense, landing LSU (and former Notre Dame) offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock, Duke QB Riley Leonard and FIU WR Kris Mitchell (1,118 yards). Running back Audric Estime is a big loss, but Jadarian Price and Jeremiyah Love flashed as freshmen.

10. Clemson (9-4) - The Tigers, who finished the year on a five-game winning streak, lose RB Will Shipley but bring back QB Cade Klubnik, RB Phil Mafah, WRs Tyler Brown and Antonio Williams and most of the O-line. Star LB Jeremiah Trotter Jr. turned pro, but Barrett Carter came back. Freshman All-Americans T.J. Parker and Peter Woods emerged on the D-line. Safeties R.J. Mickens and Khalil Barnes anchor the secondary.

11. Utah (8-5) - Injuries doomed the 2023 Utes. Quarterback Cam Rising, RB Micah Bernard, WR Mycah Pittman and TE Brant Kuithe likely will all return after missing most or all of the season. Kyle Whittingham added Idaho RB Anthony Woods (1,131 yards, 16 TDs) and UCLA TE Carsen Ryan. Most of the O-line returns. The defense should bring back eight starters, led by LBs Levani Damuni and Karene Reid. UTEP DE Kanious Vaughn and Georgia Tech CB Kenan Johnson could plug holes.

12. Oklahoma State (10-4) - The Big 12 runners-up welcome back virtually their entire offense — Doak Walker RB Ollie Gordon II (1,732 yards), QB Alan Bowman (granted a seventh season), top WRs Brennan Presley and Rashod Owens and all five O-line starters. Oklahoma State must improve its No. 89-ranked scoring defense. All-Big 12 LBs Collin Oliver and Nick Martin (140 tackles) return and UTEP CB Kobe Hylton was a nice pickup. What does the 12-team field look like in these rankings? Remember that first-round games are played on the campus of higher seeds.

13. Arizona (10-3) - Coming off their best season in 25 years, the Wildcats bring back QB Noah Fifita, star WR Tetairoa McMillan (1,402 yards) and top RB Jonah Coleman. Stud LT Jordan Morgan turned pro, but the other four O-line starters return. Jedd Fisch must replace DC Johnny Nansen, but the defense returns most of its linebackers and secondary. Fisch also added UC Davis DT Chubba Maae.

14. Tennessee (9-4) - Five-star QB Nico Iamaleava had a promising first start in the Citrus Bowl, as did RB Dylan Sampson (20 carries, 133 yards vs. Iowa). WRs Squirrel White and Bru McCoy, who missed most of last season, return, as does C Cooper Mays. All-SEC DE James Pearce Jr. (10 sacks), LBs Keenan Pili and Elijah Herring lead the defensive front, and DE Tyre West flashed in the bowl. Oregon State CB Jermod McCoy helps a depleted secondary.

15. Oklahoma (10-3) - Jackson Arnold ascended to QB1 in the bowl game. Running back Gavin Sawchuk returns, as do WRs Nic Anderson, Jalil Farooq and Andrel Anthony, joined by All-Big Ten Purdue WR Deion Burks. Transfer O-linemen Spencer Brown (Michigan State), Michael Tarquin (Florida/USC) and Febechi Nwaiwu (North Texas) are all experienced starters. New DC Zac Alley will inherit two All-Americans, LB Danny Stutsman and S Billy Bowman, plus DE Ethan Downs and CB Woodi Washington.

16. Louisville (10-4) - Louisville loses QB Jack Plummer, star RB Jawhar Jordan and top WR Jamari Thrash, but Jeff Brohm has already landed a new QB1, Tyler Shough (Texas Tech). He’s also picked up MAC Offensive Player of the Year RB Peny Boone (Toledo), RB Don Chaney Jr. (Miami), WR Caullin Lacy (South Alabama) and WR Ja’Corey Brooks (Alabama). The defense brings back All-American DE Ashton Gillotte, DE Mason Reiger and LB TJ Quinn. Brohm added All-Ivy League DT Thor Griffith (Harvard) and Tennessee S Tamarion McDonald. Jalon Daniels returns to Kansas, as does the most of the Jayhawks’ offense.

17. Kansas (9-4) - The Jayhawks should be legitimate Big 12 contenders behind star QB Jalon Daniels, back after missing most of last season. Running back Devin Neal (a two-time 1,000-yard back) and backfield mate Daniel Hishaw Jr. return. The O-line will need some retooling. Corners Cobee Bryant, a first-team All-Big 12 pick, and Mello Dotson headline an experienced secondary. But Kansas needs to improve its 89th-ranked rushing defense.

18. Penn State (10-3) - Despite 10 wins, Penn State’s season was disappointing. Quarterback Drew Allar needs to make a big jump under new OC Andy Kotelnicki. Running backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen enter their third seasons. Ohio State WR Julian Fleming was a big pickup. New defensive coordinator Tom Allen must replace numerous big names like DE Chop Robinson and CB Kalen King, but LBs Abdul Carter and Kobe King, DT Dvon Ellies and CB Cam Miller return.

19. Florida State (13-1) - FSU might take a considerable step back, as nearly all of its best players from 2023 are NFL-bound. Former Clemson and Oregon State starter DJ Uiagalelei is the new QB1. All-ACC OL Darius Washington is a key piece. Lawrance Toafili becomes the top back. Young WRs will need to emerge. Defensive tackle Joshua Farmer, DB Shyheim Brown and CB Fentrell Cypress II lead a defense that loses stars Jared Verse, Kalen DeLoach and Braden Fiske.

20. LSU (10-3) - Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier takes over after a strong bowl game. Star WRs Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. are NFL-bound, but Kyren Lacy and Mississippi State pickup Zavion Thomas are proven, as is TE Mason Taylor. Running back Logan Diggs has entered the portal. New DC Blake Baker must resuscitate a unit that finished 81st in scoring nationally. He’ll work with LBs Harold Perkins Jr. and Greg Penn and S Major Burns.

21. Missouri (11-2) - Quarterback Brady Cook and WR Luther Burden III return, but All-American RB Cody Schrader is a big loss. Eli Drinkwitz plucked Georgia State RB Marcus Carroll (1,350 yards) and Appalachian State RB Nate Noel. All-SEC LT Javon Foster is gone, but the O-line has experience. The defense loses several key pieces: DE Darius Robinson, LB Ty’Ron Hopper and CB Kris Abrams-Draine. Miami LB Corey Flagg Jr. adds 24 career starts.

22. Iowa (10-4) - As Kirk Ferentz sets out to revive his woeful offense, he gets back QB Cade McNamara and TE Luke Lachey from injuries to go with RB Leshon Williams (821 yards) and the entire O-line. He needs to add some WRs. The Hawkeyes’ stingy defense loses All-American DB Cooper DeJean but gets back LB Jay Higgins (171 tackles), DE Deontae Craig, DT Yahya Black and S Sebastian Castro. Punter Tory Taylor is a notable loss.

23. Iowa State (7-6) - The young Cyclones went 6-3 in Big 12 play, with ranked wins over Oklahoma State and K-State, and should return 18 starters. Quarterback Rocco Becht, RB Abu Sama III and TE Benjamin Brahmer stood out as freshmen. Top WRs Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel return, as do all five O-line starters. Iowa State’s league-leading defense gets back All-Big 12 safeties Jeremiah Cooper and Beau Freyler and the entire two-deep up front.

24. Kansas State (9-4) - The Avery Johnson era began with K-State’s bowl win over NC State, now under new OC Matt Wells. The former top-100 recruit takes over an offense that brings back RB DJ Giddens (1,226 yards) and WR Jayce Brown. North Dakota T Easton Kilty could boost an O-line replacing four starters. All-Big 12 S Kobe Savage transferred to Oregon, but standout LB Austin Moore and S Marques Sigle (leading tackler) return.

25. West Virginia (9-4) - The Mountaineers were one of the season’s most surprising performers and fielded a top-30 offense. Quarterback Garrett Greene, top RBs Jahiem White and CJ Donaldson, TE Kole Taylor and three O-line starters return. The defense must replace six starters, most notably CB Beanie Bishop Jr., but gets back S Anthony Wilson (80 tackles) and LB Trey Lathan (injured). Cornerback Montre Miller, a former Kent State transfer, was granted a seventh year.

Just missed: NC State, USC, Kentucky, Wisconsin, Virginia Tech

Mandel’s top Group of 5 team: Liberty

[Texzilla58 4717]

How was Colorado Prime excluded? I heard they are going 25- 0 next year.

I hope Michigan goes 1-11. Fuck Michigan.

[ChiTownDoc 21098]

17 minutes ago, AnotherLawyer said:

Yeah...which 3 do you see as losses (or more)? UM, Georgia, and...0u? Ole Miss? Someone we shouldn't lose to?

Whole issue is a ‘floor’ of 2.  You’re an attorney.  You know floor vs a reasonable expectation.  

[Mitch Cumsteen 18523]

2 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

2 as the floor is a bit generous.  There are at least three teams that have us as their jihad game

Generous? Try ridiculous? We lost to an average OU team this season, got a favorable call from the refs that sealed a win against a Houston team that had no business being on the same field as us, squeaked by K-State when they made a bone head decision to go for two, and held on for dear life against a moribund TCU. 

I'm not one of those SEC honks, but the schedule (especially when you add a roadie against Michigan and two true rival jihad games on the road) is going to be more difficult. We are losing all of our best skill position threats on offense, and our DT's that controlled the run game against every team we faced. I love what's coming back on the oline and QB, but there are a lot of unknowns.

The expanded playoffs change everything though. That, to me, is the only goal of the regular season -- get to the tournament. There's a chance that Texas could lose 3 and still make the playoffs but I don't care how they get there, as long as they get there.

[AnotherLawyer 383]

14 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Whole issue is a ‘floor’ of 2.  You’re an attorney.  You know floor vs a reasonable expectation.  

True. I guess if we're talking reasonable-worst case, it's probably 9-4 losing to UM, Georgia, and one of aggy, 0u, or arky, and either Ole Miss or the bowl game. I've been drinking the Kool Aid. So I revise my floor to 9-4 with a good chance at 16-0.

Edited January 9 by AnotherLawyer
Clarification.

[LateAughtsHorn 588]

13 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

 

I'm not one of those SEC honks, but the schedule (especially when you add a roadie against Michigan and two true rival jihad games on the road) is going to be more difficult. We are losing all of our best skill position threats on offense, and our DT's that controlled the run game against every team we faced. I love what's coming back on the oline and QB, but there are a lot of unknowns.

 

I remember after 04 thinking there was no way we could lose Ced and DJ and get better. Obviously, I'm not saying we're in for a historic run next year; but I feel like we focus way more on what we're losing than what we could potentially be gaining when we have these discussions. 

QB will be in his 3rd year as a starter, should have the best OL we've had since 05, edge rush should improve, and the most talented players in our secondary will all be a year older. 

All this being said, we could easily drop 4 games with next year's schedule; but 2023 looked more like a team that was ahead of schedule than a team that was maxed out to me

 

Edited January 9 by LateAughtsHorn

[Dignan 355]

Boise State is going to be the top group of five team. They return a lot and get Malachi Nelson. 

I think SMU also is a "surprise" their first year in the ACC. They have a LOT of good portal transfers coming in. 

For us, I am confident Sark knows what he is doing. We will need some youngsters to step up in certain positions. 

[Mitch Cumsteen 18523]

13 minutes ago, AnotherLawyer said:

True. I guess if we're talking reasonable-worst case, it's probably 9-4 losing to UM, Georgia, and one of aggy, 0u, or arky, and either Ole Miss or the bowl game. I've been drinking the Kool Aid. So I revise my floor to 9-4 with a good chance at 16-0.

I'll take as much action as you're willing to put up that we don't lose to Ole Miss next year.

[satyanash 14281]

PFF: Way-too-early top-25 rankings for 2024

Quote

1. Georgia Bulldogs (2023 Record: 13-1, Won Orange Bowl)

While Georgia couldn’t three-peat his season, the Bulldogs should be the current favorites to take home the national title in 2024. The biggest reason for that is the return of quarterback Carson Beck, whose 90.7 passing grade this year stood fourth in the country. Georgia also added former Florida running back Trevor Etienne in the transfer portal, whose 5.8 yards per carry tied for third among SEC running backs this season.

The Bulldogs do lose some key pieces like Brock Bowers, Kamari Lassiter and Amarius Mims. However, Kirby Smart has proven that this program simply reloads, not rebuilds.

2. Alabama Crimson Tide (2023 Record: 12-2, Lost CFP Semifinal)

Like Georgia, Alabama returns its star quarterback who’s one of the best big-play threats in the sport. Jalen Milroe’s 9.2% big-time throw rate was the second-best in the FBS this year while his 35 runs of 10-plus yards were fourth for all quarterbacks in the nation. The Crimson Tide also bring back safety Caleb Downs to lead their defense, who was named to our All-American team as just a true freshman.

3. Texas Longhorns (2023 Record: 12-2, Lost CFP Semifinal)

Texas’ 2024 outlook also hinges on the NFL decision of its star quarterback. Unlike McCarthy, there’s optimism that Quinn Ewers will stay in school after his comments following the Longhorns’ semifinal loss to Washington. “But I know that we're going to work as hard as we can to try to be back,” Ewers said in his postgame press conference. “And that's all we can really do, is attack the offseason the right way and just continue to build this team to what it's capable of being.”

While Ewers will likely be back to lead the offense, Texas also added a couple of the portal's top defenders in Clemson safety Andrew Mukuba and UTSA edge defender Trey Moore. Even with a jump in competition to the SEC, the Longhorns should remain national title contenders.

4. Michigan Wolverines (2023 Record: 15-0, Won National Championship)

There might not be a more volatile team on this list than Michigan. Depending on how the next week shakes out, the Wolverines can move up to as high as No. 1 on this list or drop out of the top five altogether.

Both head coach Jim Harbaugh and quarterback J.J. McCarthy have massive decisions to make as to whether they should return to Ann Arbor or move to the NFL. If they both leave, which is looking increasingly likely, those are two massive holes that will be difficult to replace. However, the Wolverines still have some star players returning regardless in cornerback Will Johnson, interior defensive lineman Mason Graham and tight end Colston Loveland.

5. Ole Miss Rebels (2023 Record: 11-2, Won Peach Bowl)

The Rebels’ 2024 hype took a major blow last week with star running back Quinshon Judkins entering the transfer portal. However, Ole Miss should still be seen as a legitimate national championship contender next season. Even without Judkins, the Rebels bring back a ton of firepower on offense in quarterback Jaxson Dart, wide receiver Tre Harris and tight end Caden Prieskorn. All are among the best returning players at their respective positions.

Head coach Lane Kiffin also completely rebuilt his defense by attacking the transfer portal better than anyone else. The Rebels brought in nine defenders who all saw significant playing time for their respective Power Five schools this past season, headlined by Florida edge defender Princely Umanmielen and Texas A&M interior defensive lineman Walter Nolen. Don’t be surprised if Ole Miss starts the year in the top five for the first time since 1970.

6. Ohio State Buckeyes (2023 Record: 11-2, Lost Cotton Bowl)

Ohio State will be starting its third quarterback in three years next season after Kyle McCord transferred to Syracuse. To replace him, the Buckeyes added Kansas State’s Will Howard in the transfer portal. His 78.7 PFF grade this year ranked third among Big 12 signal-callers. He’s joined in the backfield by Ole Miss transfer Quinshon Judkins, who leads all Power Five running backs since 2022 in rushing yards (2,726), yards after contact (1,799) and forced missed tackles (151).

Ohio State will also be breaking in essentially a brand new receiving corps as Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka and Cade Stover are all expected to head to the NFL while Julian Fleming transferred to Penn State. The current “Wide Receiver U” hasn’t had much difficulty replacing talent there before though. The Buckeyes currently have four wide receivers who were among the top-50 overall recruits in the last two classes.

Ohio State also returns Jack Sawyer to lead its defense. He was the only edge defender in the nation who earned 85-plus PFF grades as a pass-rusher and in run defense this season.

7. Oregon Ducks (2023 Record: 12-2, Won Fiesta Bowl)

Even with quarterback Bo Nix moving on to the NFL, Oregon should be one of the top Big Ten contenders next season. That’s because the Ducks added the top quarterback in the transfer portal, Oklahoma’s Dillon Gabriel. His 91.6 PFF grade this year is the highest among returning FBS quarterbacks and only trailed Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. Oregon also added another top signal-caller in the portal in UCLA’s Dante Moore. The former five-star recruit’s 6.4% big-time throw rate as a true freshman stood third among Pac-12 quarterbacks this season.

While he won’t have Troy Franklin to throw to, Tez Johnson is a more than capable top option. His 727 yards after the catch this year led the Power Five and were the second-most in the country.

8. Penn State Nittany Lions (2023 Record: 10-3, Lost Peach Bowl)

Unlike the (likely) three Big Ten teams above them on this list, the Nittany Lions won’t need to replace their starting quarterback. While Drew Allar often drew the ire of the PSU faithful, he was far from the biggest problem with Penn State’s offense this year. The sophomore’s 87.1 PFF grade was a top-20 mark among FBS quarterbacks while the Nittany Lions finished outside the top-55 teams in both receiving (81st) and pass-blocking (60th) grades this year.

Help is on the way in both aspects as Penn State picked up a couple of former five-star recruits in the transfer portal: wide receiver Julian Fleming (Ohio State) and offensive tackle Nolan Rucci (Wisconsin). The Nittany Lions also have a new offensive coordinator in Kansas’ Andy Kotelnicki to help Allar fully unlock his potential.

9. Missouri Tigers (2023 Record: 11-2, Won Cotton Bowl)

Missouri was one of the biggest surprises of the 2023 season, winning its first New Year’s Six bowl in 10 years. It was also the first winning year for the Tigers since the 2018 season.

A major reason for Mizzou’s resurgence was its offense, which finished as the Power Five’s 14th-best in EPA per play after placing 56th in that metric just last year. The Tigers have many key contributors returning to that offense, like offensive coordinator Kirby Moore, quarterback Brady Cook, wide receiver Luther Burden III and center Connor Tollison. Burden and Tollison in particular were among the six highest-graded Power Five players at their respective positions this year.

10. Arizona Wildcats (2023 Record: 10-3, Won Alamo Bowl)

Arizona might’ve had an even more surprising season than Missouri. The Wildcats finished with a 10-3 record after five straight losing years that combined for a 15-38 record. Also like Mizzou, Arizona returns many key contributors from that team, namely the stars of its offense. Noah Fifita is back to lead it and finished with a 78.1% adjusted completion rate this year, fourth among Pac-12 quarterbacks.

Jonah Coleman joins him once again in the backfield and had the fifth-best forced missed tackle rate among Power Five running backs this season (37%). Fifita’s top receiver since eighth grade, Tetairoa McMillan, is back as well. His 1,396 receiving yards this year led all returning Power Five receivers. The Wildcats enter the Big 12 as the early favorite to win the new-look conference.

11. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2023 Record: 10-3, Won Sun Bowl)

After finishing fifth in the nation in defensive EPA per play, Notre Dame should once again field one of the top defenses in the country next season. Linebacker Jack Kiser and interior defensive lineman Howard Cross III both return and were each among the three highest-graded players at their respective positions this season. Safety Xavier Watts is back as well after winning the Bronko Nagurski Trophy, which is given to the best defender in the country. He led the nation with seven interceptions this year.

The Fighting Irish will have a completely different offense in 2024, but there is some optimism with the hire of LSU offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock and the arrival of Duke quarterback Riley Leonard.

12. Utah Utes (2023 Record: 8-5, Lost Las Vegas Bowl)

Utah was able to go 8-5 in 2023 without its two best offensive players in quarterback Cameron Rising and tight end Brant Kuithe. Rising’s 86.1 grade across the 2021 and 2022 seasons was a top-20 mark among Power Five quarterbacks while Kuithe’s 305 yards after the catch in 2021 were fifth among Power Five tight ends. With both returning in 2024 and head coach Kyle Whittingham consistently producing elite defenses, the Utes should be one of the top contenders in the new-look Big 12 next year.

13. Clemson Tigers (2023 Record: 9-4, Won Gator Bowl)

Clemson’s defense carried them in 2023, tying for second in the nation in overall grade and placing third in expected points allowed per play. That side of the ball should remain elite next year. Four true freshmen on the Tigers’ defense earned 75-plus grades this year on at least 300 snaps: interior defensive lineman Peter Woods, safety Khalil Barnes, cornerback Avieon Terrell and edge defender T.J. Parker. Barrett Carter also announced his return for his senior season despite being projected as one of the top linebacker prospects in the 2024 NFL Draft.

The question is whether the offense can keep up. Despite there being a lot of hype on that side of the ball with the partnership of Broyles-award-winning offensive coordinator Garrett Riley and five-star quarterback Cade Klubnik, Clemson still tied for 89th in the FBS in offensive grade. They’ll need to make serious strides in Year 2 to win the ACC and secure a spot in the 12-team playoff.

14. Louisville Cardinals (2023 Record: 10-4, Lost Holiday Bowl)

Year 1 of the Jeff Brohm era couldn’t have gone much better. Louisville enjoyed its first 10-win season in a decade while playing in its first-ever ACC Championship Game. Expectations should be similarly high next year. Ashton Gillotte is back after being one of only three Power Five edge defenders with 80-plus pass-rushing and run-defense grades. The Cardinals were also one of the top teams in the transfer portal, adding top players like wide receiver Caullin Lacy and cornerback Corey Thornton amongst others.

15. Washington Huskies (2023 Record: 14-1, Lost National Championship)

It may seem odd to place a team that lost the national championship this low, but Washington is losing a lot of talent. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr., wide receiver Rome Odunze and edge defender Bralen Trice are all projected first-round picks while the Huskies could lose a few more projected Day 2 picks in offensive tackle Troy Fautanu and wide receivers Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan.

Still, the Huskies deserve a place inside the top 15 with head coach Kalen DeBoer and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb in tow. Washington has gone 25-3 in the two years they’ve been here after going 4-8 the year before they were hired. Their new quarterback who’ll be running the show post-Penix is Mississippi State’s Will Rogers, who’ll look to recapture his 2021 form when he earned the seventh-best passing grade in the Power Five.

16. Florida State Seminoles (2023 Record: 13-1, Lost Orange Bowl)

Like Washington, Florida State is losing most of the top talent that led the Seminoles to a 13-0 record before being controversially snubbed from the College Football Playoff. One of those losses was quarterback Jordan Travis, whose season-ending leg injury was the reason that FSU was left out of the playoff in the first place. Florida State was able to make a splash in the portal to replace him with Oregon State’s DJ Uiagalelei rejoining the ACC after once serving as Clemson’s starter. His 6.5% big-time throw rate trailed only Michael Penix Jr. among Pac-12 quarterbacks.

17. Tennessee Volunteers (2023 Record: 9-4, Won Citrus Bowl)

Tennessee fans enjoyed a glimpse into the future in its 35-0 blowout win over No. 20 Iowa in the Citrus Bowl. True freshman Nico Iamaleava made his debut in the contest and showed every bit of the talent that made him a top-10 recruit. He finished with an 85.0 passing grade against one of the nation’s best defenses. On the other side, the Volunteers feature a potential top-five pick in the 2025 NFL Draft in edge defender James Pearce Jr. The sophomore’s 21.3% pressure rate trailed only Laiatu Latu among Power Five edges while his 21.9% pass-rush win rate was fifth in the nation.

18. Oklahoma Sooners (2023 Record: 10-3, Lost Alamo Bowl)

Oklahoma’s offense suffered a couple of massive losses when offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby left to become Mississippi State’s head coach and quarterback Dillon Gabriel transferred to Oregon.

Jackson Arnold will replace the latter and had an up-and-down performance against Arizona in the Alamo Bowl, finishing three big-time throws and five turnover-worthy plays. Still, he was just a true freshman in his first career start who will enter 2024 with a lot of hype as a former top-10 recruit.

19. LSU Tigers (2023 Record: 10-3, Won ReliaQuest Bowl)

Speaking of losing offensive talent, that’s precisely what’s happening to LSU. The Tigers must replace Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Jayden Daniels and a couple of projected first-round receivers in Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. Garrett Nussmeier will be Brian Kelly’s new signal-caller and has earned a 77.8 career PFF grade on 430 snaps. He’ll have an elite offensive line protecting him, led by star left tackle Will Campbell.

The defense needs to be better after finishing among the 20 worst in EPA per play, but the hire of Missouri’s Brandon Baker as defensive coordinator coupled with the return of linebacker Harold Perkins Jr. should be cause for some optimism.

20. USC Trojans (2023 Record: 8-5, Won Holiday Bowl)

USC was the most disappointing team in college football. With the reigning Heisman winner, Caleb Williams, returning to lead them, the Trojans entered the season ranked sixth and having College Football Playoff expectations. Instead, USC’s putrid defense (118th in EPA per play) caused them to fall to just 8-5 and without a number next to its name.

Lincoln Riley addressed those defensive issues with the hiring of UCLA’s D’Anton Lynn as defensive coordinator. In his first year there, the Bruins improved from 111th in expected points allowed per play to eighth. As for Williams’ replacement, Miller Moss is slated to take over. He earned an 89.3 PFF passing grade in the Holiday Bowl win over Louisville.

21. Kansas Jayhawks (2023 Record: 9-4, Won Guaranteed Rate Bowl)

While Kansas lost offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki to Penn State, the Jayhawks still have plenty to be excited about on that side of the ball. It starts with quarterback Jalon Daniels, who will be back after playing just three games this season. In those three games, he earned an 88.4 PFF passing grade that was 10th among Power Five signal-callers with at least 200 snaps. Devin Neal is also back at running back after rushing for 1,280 yards, the fourth-most in the Big 12. Kansas should also return most of a receiving corps that finished second to only Washington in receiving grade (89.2).

22. Kansas State Wildcats (2023 Record: 9-4, Won Pop-Tarts Bowl)

The Wildcats lost their four most valuable players according to PFF’s wins above average metric: tight end Ben Sinnott, guard Cooper Beebe, quarterback Will Howard and wide receiver Phillip Brooks. The fifth, DJ Giddens, is back after forcing the third-most missed tackles (69) among Big 12 running backs this season. He’ll partner with new quarterback Avery Johnson to form one of the best rushing duos in the conference next season. Johnson, a former top-10 quarterback recruit, had the seventh-most rushing yards among Big 12 quarterbacks as a true freshman despite playing only 204 snaps.

23. Oklahoma State Cowboys (2023 Record: 10-4, Won Texas Bowl)

While Oklahoma State was often a one-man show in 2023, that was enough to carry the Cowboys to the Big 12 Championship Game. The good news for OSU is that superstar running back Ollie Gordon II will be back to carry the Pokes once again. The Doak Walker Award winner led the nation in rushing yards (1,732) despite only receiving 17 total carries in the first three games. Elsewhere on offense, Oklahoma State will return starting quarterback Alan Bowman and top receiver Brennan Presley to lift some of the pressure off of Gordon’s shoulders.

24. SMU Mustangs (2023 Record: 11-3, Lost Fenway Bowl)

SMU should have high expectations as it makes the move from the American Athletic Conference to the ACC. The Mustangs finished as the eighth-highest-graded team in the country this season and return many key players to that squad, namely quarterback Preston Stone. He led all Group of Five signal-callers in PFF passing grade (90.5) and big-time throws (30) this past season.

25. Liberty Flames (2023 Record: 13-1, Lost Fiesta Bowl)

Since the best Group of Five champion is now guaranteed a playoff berth, it makes sense to point out the favorite for that spot next season. Schools like Boise State or Memphis could’ve been placed here, but Liberty holds that distinction right now. The Flames are coming off a 13-1 season under first-year coach Jamey Chadwell and received massive news last week when star quarterback Kaidon Salter withdrew from the transfer portal. His 90.2 PFF grade this year trailed only Prestone Stone among Group of Five quarterbacks

USA Today: Here's our way-too-early college football Top 25 for 2024 season.

Quote

1. Georgia (2023 record: 13-1)

After this year's setback, the Bulldogs start their quest to get back to the top of the college football mountain with Carson Beck returning as one of the elite quarterbacks in the country. Incoming Florida transfer Trevor Etienne will help at running back, and there’s enough talent at receiver and tight end to make this an upper-echelon offense. The defense was slightly down in 2023 but should be capable of getting back to its usual high standard with LB Smael Mondon and DB Malaki Starks leading the way.

2. Alabama (12-2)

An SEC championship berth and appearance in the College Football Playoff were things to celebrate in a season the Crimson Tide were in rebuilding mode. QB Jalen Milroe blossomed in the second half of the season and finished sixth in the Heisman voting. With more improvement, he should carry the offense with RB Justice Haynes becoming the top ball carrier. The defense has two big holes at cornerback and loses other key contributors. The group should still be good enough to have them near the top of the polls all season.

3. Michigan (15-0)

This is based on Jim Harbaugh returning in 2024, which might not be a sure thing given the chance he returns to the NFL. But with Harbaugh and quarterback J.J. McCarthy potentially back in Ann Arbor, the Wolverines will bring back the two big pieces behind this year's run. Michigan will need to rebuild the offensive line and running back position and replace several defensive starters but has proven adept at finding key contributors in the transfer portal.

4. Texas (12-2)

QB Quinn Ewers seems likely to return to lead the offense and will be supported by a veteran group of linemen. The only glaring concern is at receiver with the top five contributors departing, including WR Xavier Worthy and TE Ja’Tavion Sanders. The defense looks in excellent shape with LB Anthony Hill an emerging star and the secondary having more experience and some new arrivals. The biggest question is how the team adjusts to needing to be on its game every week, with an unforgiving SEC schedule and a non-conference game against Michigan.

5. Mississippi (11-2)

Expectations are high for the Rebels off a season that finished with an impressive win over Penn State in the Peach Bowl and losses only to Alabama and Georgia. Jaxson Dart will be in his third season starting at quarterback for Lane Kiffin’s offense, and WR Tre Harris should put up big numbers. Kiffin again hit the transfer portal hard to shore up key spots that should have Ole Miss well-positioned to make a run at the playoff.

6. Notre Dame (10-3)

Two key additions will define Notre Dame's 2024 season and make the Fighting Irish one of the leading contenders for the playoff. One is the hire of new offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock, whose 2023 offense at LSU led the nation in yards per play. The second is former Duke quarterback Riley Leonard. His ability as a runner could bring a new wrinkle to the Irish. One of the top defenses in the FBS could use another year from safety Xavier Watts, who may enter the draft.

7. Oregon (11-2)

Oregon's physical playing style under Dan Lanning will make the transition to the Big Ten a smooth one. The Ducks are also set to reload at quarterback, with Dillon Gabriel coming in from Oklahoma to replace Bo Nix. Gabriel will be able to throw to 1,000-yard receiver Tez Johnson while the running game leans on rising junior Jordan James. The program's trajectory under Lanning means a playoff berth is in the future.

8. Oklahoma (10-3)

The Sooners went from six wins to 10, including a victory over Texas, in Brent Venables’ second season. Will that upward trend continue in the SEC with a schedule that is much deeper? QB Jackson Arnold showed promise and inexperience in the Alamo Bowl loss to Arizona. How quickly he and a rebuilt offensive line get up to speed will determine if this team can be in the playoff mix. The defense has standouts LB Danny Stutsman and DB Billy Bowman among its leaders. The unit has made great strides in two years under Venables and looks better-positioned to adjust to life in the SEC.

9. Ohio State (11-2)

The Buckeyes will again be one of the most-talented teams in the country. Adding Will Howard from Kansas State answers the biggest question: Who will be the QB? They also bring back defensive lineman Jack Sawyer and could return fellow end JT Tuimoloau, which would be one of the most formidable pairings in the country. The defense also returns linebacker Cody Simon and safety Lathan Ransom. But can the Buckeyes beat Michigan?

10. LSU (10-3)

Things will look very different for the Tigers with Heisman winner Jayden Daniels and their top two receivers headed to the NFL. Garrett Nussmeier showed in the team’s bowl game he is capable of putting up big numbers, albeit in a different fashion. The defense is getting a makeover as Brian Kelly let go several staff members on that side of the ball. There’s still enough talent to have a competitive season that will need to meet high expectations in Baton Rouge.

11. Clemson (9-4)

Losing RB Will Shipley to the NFL makes it a little less likely the Clemson offense finally improves in 2024. Unproven backs like redshirt freshman Jarvis Green will have to step up and help returning QB Cade Klubnik, who should benefit from another year under offensive coordinator Garrett Riley. While questioning the offense, you have to like the pieces the Tigers bring back on defense, including veteran DB R.J. Mickens and two very promising DL in TJ Parker and Peter Woods. The Tigers kick off the season against Georgia but have a manageable schedule from there.

12. Tennessee (9-4)

The first serious look at heralded quarterback Nico Iamaleava was a success in the team’s bowl win against Iowa. Now the rising sophomore gets the reins of the offense. The biggest concern is getting help at receiver to overcome some of his growing pains and get the offense closer to its elite level from 2022. The defense needs to build on a better performance this past season but took some hits in the transfer portal.

13. Arizona (10-3)

The Wildcats finished as one of the hottest teams in the country after winning their last seven games. They are one of the Big 12 favorites entering their first season in the league. Noah Fifita assumed the quarterback job midway through the season and threw for 25 touchdowns. WR Tetairoa McMillan and RB Jonah Coleman will be key components of an elite offense. The defense is poised to have its five leading tacklers back.

14. Missouri (11-2)

Mizzou is another program that exceeded expectations and returns a strong core. QB Brady Cook and WR Luther Burden make for one of the better passer-receiver combinations in the SEC. Some targeted portal arrivals – RB Marcus Carroll (Georgia State), OL Cayden Green (Oklahoma) and DB Toriano Pride Jr. (Clemson) – address needs and should put Eliah Drinkwitz’s team near the top of the conference.

15. Penn State (10-3)

The factors that will determine Penn State’s offense in 2024? What the Nittany Lions will get (if anything) at WR, how well they break in a rebuilt offensive line and whether QB Drew Allar will blossom under new coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, who worked wonders in the same role at Kansas. If all goes right, Penn State could win the Big Ten or at least land an at-large playoff bid. On defense, former Indiana coach Tom Allen takes over coordinator duties for a unit that looks very good in the front seven but has to find reliable defenders in the secondary to surround rising junior DB Cam Miller.

16. Utah (8-5)

The two biggest returners for the Utes didn’t play a down last season. QB Cam Rising and TE Brant Kuithe were sidelined with knee injuries from the 2022 campaign but opted to return for their final season. Rising – if he can return to form – solves one of the biggest issues from 2023. One consistency for Utah is defense, and next year's group should be formidable as it heads into a winnable Big 12 with no elite team.

17. Washington (14-1)

There will be some big losses on offense, including key pieces up front, wide receiver Rome Odunze and, of course, quarterback Michael Penix Jr. The Huskies will need some improvement on defense to balance things out and succeed in the Big Ten, especially with standout end Bralen Trice headed for the NFL. Still, you have to respect what Kalen DeBoer has done in his two seasons; based on his track record, it seems very unlikely that Washington drops off the national map.

18. Florida State (13-1)

Getting back to the doorstep of the playoff might be a tall ask of a team that needs to unearth a new starting quarterback to replace Jordan Travis. But even with Travis and star DL Jared Verse gone, there’s plenty of talent in Tallahassee. The Seminoles have been boosted by several players who opted to come back in 2024, including RB Lawrance Toafili, DE Byron Turner Jr. and OL Darius Washington. This will be an experienced team that may be only a QB away from another ACC title … and this time a playoff berth.

19. Southern California (8-5)

It’s all moot if USC doesn’t find a defense. Not to mention the offense loses Caleb Williams, though Miller Moss looked the part in the bowl win against Louisville. Defensive issues plus a QB change plus the unpredictability of this year’s move to the Big Ten make the Trojans, well, hard to predict. But the offense should remain potent without Williams and could catch Big Ten teams off guard. The defense can only get better under new coordinator D’Anton Lynn, who did great work at rival UCLA. That and Lincoln Riley’s overall track record makes it easier to pick the Trojans to land somewhere in the Top 25.

20. Oklahoma State (9-4)

The news that QB Alan Bowman was granted an additional year drastically changes the outlook for the Cowboys. Bowman’s steady play helped lead the team to the Big 12 title game. His return, along with RB Ollie Gordon and WR Brennan Pressley, give Oklahoma State a bright outlook on offense. There are several key pieces back on defense, with LBs Nickolas Martin and Collin Oliver and DB Kendal Daniels.

21. North Carolina State (9-4)

After a sneakily successful 2023 season, the Wolfpack are in position to remain near the top of the ACC with some key transfers. One is former Coastal Carolina quarterback Grayson McCall, who has to stay healthy but should be an upgrade. He'll throw to rising sophomore KC Concepcion, one of the top young skill talents in the Power Five. N.C. State can also look to newcomers such as Villanova transfer Devon Marshall to replace both starting cornerbacks.

22. Kansas (9-4)

The rise of the Jayhawks continues under Lance Leipold. This might be his best team yet with QB Jalon Daniels committed to returning after a back injury sidelined him for much of 2023. Also staying is RB Devin Neal, as do the top three receivers, which could make this the best offense in the Big 12. How far this team goes will depend on the defense, which has some holes to fill.

23. Memphis (10-3)

The Tigers’ offensive line has been decimated by transfers to the Power Five, so it’s possible that prolific QB Seth Henigan and this offense struggle a bit while finding a new starting cast. But Memphis still has the pieces to be the top team in the Group of Five and a playoff team in the new 12-team field, especially given the way the defense played under new defensive coordinator Jordan Hankins in the Liberty Bowl win against Iowa State. More consistency on that side of the ball will help the Tigers get to the top of the American.

24. Iowa (10-4)

Don’t look for Kirk Ferentz to lean into a spread offense, obviously, but it will be interesting to see what direction Iowa takes on this side of the ball with his new hire at coordinator to replace his son Brian. For the second year in a row, the Hawkeyes hope to keep QB Cade McNamara healthy. If so, and the offense rises to just average, Iowa could again sneak up the Big Ten standings and make a run at a major bowl. There are no concerns at all on defense.

25. Virginia Tech (7-6)

Virginia Tech is set to make a leap after posting a winning record in coach Brent Pry's second season. The Hokies bring back all 11 starters on offense, led by quarterback Kyron Drones, who had 22 total touchdowns and three interceptions in 2023. They've also added three defensive linemen from the portal, including all-conference tackle Aeneas Peebles from Duke. With the wide majority of starters back in the fold, Tech could make a run in the ACC.

 

[closetohumping 17399]

10 minutes ago, Dignan said:

Boise State is going to be the top group of five team. They return a lot and get Malachi Nelson. 

I think SMU also is a "surprise" their first year in the ACC. They have a LOT of good portal transfers coming in. 

For us, I am confident Sark knows what he is doing. We will need some youngsters to step up in certain positions. 

Malachi was apparently ass my dude.  If Riley doesn’t want him you have to wonder

[satyanash 14281]

[closetohumping 17399]

2 minutes ago, satyanash said:

Not sure where you got this but this is ass

[LateAughtsHorn 588]

3 minutes ago, satyanash said:

Do we actually know how this shit is gonna be organized next year or is this more of a Big 12 tiebreaker situation where it's still anyone's guess?

[dcar00 14035]

I feel confident the DL will take a step forward on pass rush and a bit of a step back on run D.  not too worried Bo Davis.

My concern is seeing the significant improvement we need on the OL and the secondary to really make an undefeated or 1 loss season a reality.  

Oh and yes Baxter and Blue can carry around a football from now till August please.

[closetohumping 17399]

3 minutes ago, LateAughtsHorn said:

Do we actually know how this shit is gonna be organized next year or is this more of a Big 12 tiebreaker situation where it's still anyone's guess?

I’m quite certain that conference champs aren’t automatically the top 5 seeds

[Pig Bellmont 8691]

33 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

That, to me, is the only goal of the regular season

I understand this mentality but the goal has to be to win the damn conference. And that should be the reasonable/attainable. 

[Js1 85101]

5 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

I’m quite certain that conference champs aren’t automatically the top 5 seeds

https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-cfp-leaders-moving-closer-to-adjusting-12-team-playoff-format-230208506.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAB7bAcUBP4v04XVBch1rezf4sEoo1ycHvXA3Zz_25VVNUAGFcAbVpgmhksyMvxun1FyD2JSTbhWhj4SAM6nRE_t3Y48JQPgY2XoLcR1CfuHATbbqkHBCFRkeM4j31228crPDr0QO--FP91GksY0MoSPWwuhz0dGJKIWY04lONVrC

Quote

The four highest-ranked conference champions receive first-round byes, while seeds 5-8 host on-campus, opening-round games. Independents, such as Notre Dame, are not eligible for an automatic qualifier nor a first-round bye. A rotation of six bowls host the quarterfinals and semifinals.

 

[AnotherLawyer 383]

30 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

I'll take as much action as you're willing to put up that we don't lose to Ole Miss next year.

I don't think we lose to Ole Miss. I think we go 16-0. I was asked for what might be a reasonable floor given this team and 9-4 is a reasonable floor for next year.

[satyanash 14281]

29 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Not sure where you got this but this is ass

It's from the above Athletic article. It projects Georgia as SEC champion, Clemson as ACC champion, Oregon as Big Ten champion and Utah as Big 12 champion, with Liberty getting the G5 bid. 

[Mitch Cumsteen 18523]

11 minutes ago, AnotherLawyer said:

I don't think we lose to Ole Miss. I think we go 16-0. I was asked for what might be a reasonable floor given this team and 9-4 is a reasonable floor for next year.

Lawyer -- read the fine print. We don't have Ole Miss on the schedule next year.

[TrashMaster G 17387]

44 minutes ago, satyanash said:

Desmond Howard already put out his bracket?

[Codaxx 5600]

2 hours ago, gmr548 said:

I mean I've been sunshine pumping for next year but 12-2 is not the floor lol

#2 is a ranking that initially makes you recoil because of the losses Texas is taking with Sweat-Murphy-Ford on defense and with all of its pass catchers on offense. Then you look at what has already been done in the portal, retaining Alfred Collins, recruiting, etc. and see it is probably survivable. And then you look at what other top programs are losing and all of a sudden you're back around to Texas being right there.

But yeah - floor? Easy enough to see Texas lose at Michigan and lose to Georgia. We avoided a signature Sark head scratcher this year, not a guarantee that happens again. While Texas should be favored, OU is pretty much always a tossup and any of the four November games jump out as a plausible place for a wtf loss. To me I think the floor is 8-4. I think they'll be better than that but it's within the realm of possibility.

11 wins is the ceiling for the regular season and that is generous. 

Edited January 9 by Codaxx

[Genco 3038]

9 hours ago, ousux said:

10 hours ago, Hornius Emeritus said:

Texas 9-1 odds of winning the national championship next year. Georgia the favorite.

 

Wtf with aggy that high. Someone must be hiiiigh..

[TrashMaster G 17387]

5 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

11 wins is the ceiling for the regular season and that is generous. 

🙄

[Josef Pwag 1724]

12 hours ago, David Dennison said:

Poor aggy.

I can't believe that some of you are talking smack to aggy. Do you have ANY IDEA how many offseason online fan polls aggy will win about best fanbase, best stadium, best helmet, etc. You can only dream of winning that kind of hardware for your program. They also have a genius new coach who can win the SEC with FCS players (or so I've been told). Sure, aggy will get vivisected at home by ND in week 1 on national tv with a former Duke QB running wild, but they will have the kind of offseason glory we can only dream about. 

[ztejas 43263]

2 hours ago, RomaVicta said:

We gave a highly ranked Alabama team all they could handle in 2002.

2022*

[Skipper 6103]

1 hour ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Generous? Try ridiculous? We lost to an average OU team this season, got a favorable call from the refs that sealed a win against a Houston team that had no business being on the same field as us, squeaked by K-State when they made a bone head decision to go for two, and held on for dear life against a moribund TCU. 

This.  Anyone calling 2 losses a "floor" is either insane or has no idea what "floor" means.  10-2 is a reasonable prediction and would frankly represent an extremely successful season and guaranteed playoff spot (almost certainly hosting first round with our schedule).  But it seems like people forget about things like injuries to key players will occur and the fact that it's certain every team in the country is going to play some stinkers over the course of the year (and you just hope that doesn't happen against teams with a pulse).  I mean we play @ Michigan, UGA and 3 rivalry games (2 on the road).  We could easily lose 4 next year if the chips don't fall our way.  I'm betting Vegas team totals for us is set at 9.5 or 10.

[Bama Llama 1447]

“Way too early” is right but who wants to wait on speculation? I’m seeing Texas deflowering the Big House with Arch Manning mopping up with a couple of TDs. I see Alabama making the playoff and advancing, provided we discover a college football player who can consistently snap a football accurately to his quarterback.

As Prophet exclaimed in The Hallelujah Trail after knocking back a swig of good whiskey, “There! Now I see it!

Hook ‘Em and RTR. Fuck the others, especially OU and Alldumb!

[mdmost 42857]

So maybe I don't know what floor means but we should only reasonably lose to 2 teams next season: Michigan and Georgia. Could we lose to OU, sure. Could we lose a stupid game we shouldn't in the SEC, sure. The schedule is pretty damn favorable though. We absolutely could lose to Arkansas or aggy but we shouldn't. Both of those teams are terrible. This season showed we could handle the pressure of being a team's most hated opponent.

[TrashMaster G 17387]

21 minutes ago, Skipper said:

This.  Anyone calling 2 losses a "floor" is either insane or has no idea what "floor" means.  10-2 is a reasonable prediction and would frankly represent an extremely successful season and guaranteed playoff spot (almost certainly hosting first round with our schedule).  But it seems like people forget about things like injuries to key players will occur and the fact that it's certain every team in the country is going to play some stinkers over the course of the year (and you just hope that doesn't happen against teams with a pulse).  I mean we play @ Michigan, UGA and 3 rivalry games (2 on the road).  We could easily lose 4 next year if the chips don't fall our way.  I'm betting Vegas team totals for us is set at 9.5 or 10.

I agree 10-2 is a reasonable prediction and calling it the floor is a bit nuts.

Saying 11-1 is the ceiling is equally nuts.

[closetojumping 62229]

Fun thread. Should be an interesting follow. 

Thoughts:

1) I am genuinely surprised at the lack of laziness in those polls. I expected to see someone like ATM thrown in, just because. 

2) Michigan, and I haven't fact-checked this, but per XM84 discussion this morning, is losing 5-7 6th year seniors, 5-7 5th year seniors, and something like 4-6 4th year seniors. Harbaugh himself told Neuheisel at Big 10 media days in July that he had 20 guys who will/could get drafted in the 2024 draft, breaking the records. Anything close to that, plus Harbaugh's exit, merits a significant downgrade in their outlook. They're only a few years removed from a losing record, they're unable to continue to cheat with impunity, and they haven't recruited at an elite level. Unlike this past year, Michigan's schedule is rough. In September, they play a decent Fresno team, then Texas, then a bowl-eligible Arkansas State team (led by chronic pussy, Butch Jones, so maybe not much to this one) and then they go to socal and face USC. There's an okay chance that they're 2-2 heading into October.

3) Ohio State and OU have the same problems. They've got skill help, but they're QBs are big question marks and they're going to be playing behind patchwork OLs with low ceilings and limited time working together. 

[Js1 85101]

1 minute ago, closetojumping said:

2) Michigan, and I haven't fact-checked this, but per XM84 discussion this morning, is losing 5-7 6th year seniors, 5-7 5th year seniors, and something like 4-6 4th year seniors. Harbaugh himself told Neuheisel at Big 10 media days in July that he had 20 guys who will/could get drafted in the 2024 draft, breaking the records. Anything close to that, plus Harbaugh's exit, merits a significant downgrade in their outlook. They're only a few years removed from a losing record, they're unable to continue to cheat with impunity, and they haven't recruited at an elite level. Unlike this past year, Michigan's schedule is rough. In September, they play a decent Fresno team, then Texas, then a bowl-eligible Arkansas State team (led by chronic pussy, Butch Jones, so maybe not much to this one) and then they go to socal and face USC. There's an okay chance that they're 2-2 heading into October.

 

yeah, I am not scared of Michigan in September.

We should win that game. They are replacing a lot of talent.  It is 2022 TCU-esque is the amount of 4th, 5th and 6th year seniors they had. 

If Harbaugh bolts too?  We will be thumping our chests about beating the defending champs on their home field. 

[hookem48 4631]

@ Ark 24 will be our  @ Hou 23. 

[Mr. Drummond 2183]

21 minutes ago, hookem48 said:

@ Ark 24 will be our  @ Hou 23. 

I'll take that right now.

[AnotherLawyer 383]

3 hours ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

Lawyer -- read the fine print. We don't have Ole Miss on the schedule next year.

Motherfucker. I didn't scroll far enough over to see that it was Mississippi State. Fuck me.

[MuellerHorn 4195]

36 minutes ago, hookem48 said:

@ Ark 24 will be our  @ Hou 23. 

They're going to be terrible, so I'm not worried. Sark and team will understand that we're their Superbowl this go around.

Also of note, Texas won't have Hudson Card shitting down his leg in his first important action of his career.

Edited January 9 by MuellerHorn

[gmr548 16494]

3 hours ago, Codaxx said:

11 wins is the ceiling for the regular season and that is generous. 

Yeah I think that's reasonable. Undefeated against Texas's schedule is just not a realistic expectation. Split Michigan and Georgia, win every game you're favored in? Maybe not particularly likely, but I could see it.

[MuellerHorn 4195]

4 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Yeah I think that's reasonable. Undefeated against Texas's schedule is just not a realistic expectation. Split Michigan and Georgia, win every game you're favored in? Maybe not particularly likely, but I could see it.

I'd be happy with 10-2, as long as Texas beats A&M. 10-2 should get them in playoff contention.

I really don't think Michigan beats Texas - not with their roster loses that early in the season.

Biggest toss ups are Georgia, OU in Dallas, and Kentucky late in the year. Honestly, 2024's schedule is not that bad. All of Texas' toughest conference games are at home (sans OU, but even that is a neutral site).

Edited January 9 by MuellerHorn

[gmr548 16494]

4 hours ago, satyanash said:

I'd rather be Oregon with a bye but I'd take that spot and bracket 10/10 if offered before the season.