ESPN way too early top 25

[gmr548 16494]

4 minutes ago, MuellerHorn said:

I'd be happy with 10-2, as long as Texas beats A&M. 10-2 should get them in playoff contention.

I really don't think Michigan beats Texas - not with their roster loses that early in the season.

Biggest toss ups are Georgia, OU in Dallas, and Kentucky late in the year. Honestly, 2024's schedule is not that bad. All of Texas' toughest conference games are at home (sans OU, but even that is a neutral site).

I definitely would not concede the Michigan game either but also I'm not going to sit here and chalk up a trip the the Big House as a W and move on. Depends on what both team's rosters look like after portal and draft dust settles, and what Harbaugh does, but right now it's more or less a tossup to me. Georgia is probably the only game I look at and think "Yeah, probably a L."

Kentucky and Florida both scream trap game with where they are on the schedule. I'm not particularly worried about either team in a vacuum but given where they fall a slip up would not surprise me. Glad both are at home.

 

 

[OU Sucks 8745]

4 hours ago, satyanash said:

12. Oklahoma State (10-4) - The Big 12 runners-up welcome back virtually their entire offense — Doak Walker RB Ollie Gordon II (1,732 yards), QB Alan Bowman (granted a seventh season)

[Codaxx 5600]

Just now, gmr548 said:

I definitely would not concede the Michigan game either but also I'm not going to sit here and chalk up a trip the the Big House as a W and move on. Depends on what both team's rosters look like after portal and draft dust settles, and what Harbaugh does, but right now it's more or less a tossup to me. Georgia is probably the only game I look at and think "Yeah, probably a L."

Kentucky and Florida both scream trap game with where they are on the schedule. I'm not particularly worried about either team in a vacuum but given where they fall a slip up would not surprise me. Glad both are at home.

 

 

I have not done it, because it is way too early, but if you assign a percentage to each game. I would bet you come up with a win total in the 8.5-9.5 area. As fans we tend to see a game that Texas is a 3 pts favorite in and mark it down as a win.. 

[closetojumping 62229]

1 hour ago, MuellerHorn said:

They're going to be terrible, so I'm not worried. Sark and team will understand that we're their Superbowl this go around.

Also of note, Texas won't have Hudson Card shitting down his leg in his first important action of his career.

I don't know what more Sarkisian needs to understand about Arkansas after what he experienced in 2021. I think he witnessed some serious Bama blowouts against Arkansas and assumed the same lackluster effort and crowd behavior when Texas headed north. 

That considered, I sure as shit hope the guy and the team understands what is in store for them. Arkansas will be coming off of a bye, of course. They're not going to be good next year but their schedule favors the optics of a turnaround if they're at all competent. They play Okie State in the non-con in Stillwater and anything can happen in that game. Win it, and they're 3-0 ahead of the SEC. They miss Bama and Georgia. They get Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Texas all at home.

So they're either playing for bowl hopes and high on a turnaround, or they're playing out the string and there's the surefire "win it for coach!" premise in which Pittman is a dead man walking, but a lifelong pig, and they're all fired up to play Texas as their fucking bowl game. If only Arkansas could play Texas every week!

I hate that game even though I expect Arkansas to absolutely suck ass.

Edited January 9 by closetojumping

[Sgt Hulk 13645]

Michigan loses everyone including their coach.   We will skullfuck their big10 faces.  (

[closetojumping 62229]

5 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I definitely would not concede the Michigan game either but also I'm not going to sit here and chalk up a trip the the Big House as a W and move on. Depends on what both team's rosters look like after portal and draft dust settles, and what Harbaugh does, but right now it's more or less a tossup to me. Georgia is probably the only game I look at and think "Yeah, probably a L."

Kentucky and Florida both scream trap game with where they are on the schedule. I'm not particularly worried about either team in a vacuum but given where they fall a slip up would not surprise me. Glad both are at home.

 

 

 

2 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

I have not done it, because it is way too early, but if you assign a percentage to each game. I would bet you come up with a win total in the 8.5-9.5 area. As fans we tend to see a game that Texas is a 3 pts favorite in and mark it down as a win.. 

You guys rival sarvanaash with your constant offseason "here's how we lose a bunch of games no one is expecting" handwringing. It's become a sure sign of spring approaching on Surly when you two start picking out losses and assuming worst case scenarios. 

If you'd like to take the under on 8.5 for Texas next year, consider this an open invite to bet me any dollar figure you'd like to pledge on the under, and I'll take the over. 

Kentucky is now a threat? On the road, in Austin? Since the bestest Kentucky season ever in 2018, in which they went 10-3, let's look at their road performance:

2018-2023 (excluding corona 2020, in which they went 1-4 on the road) they are 12-11. Man, over .500 as a middling team in the SEC, on the road, is pretty impressive, right? 6 of those 12 wins are @ Louisville and @ Vanderbilt. Both programs during this same period, outside of Louisville in 2023, have been between some level of mediocre and putrid. 

Kentucky has gone 7-6 two years in a row and both seasons include one FCS opponent. They are as plain as grits in recruiting and scheme, they're losing defensive talent to the draft, and they run an offense predicated on running success. You'd have to believe that another transferring QB behind a middling OL and a new back would be able to go on the road, gash the Texas run defense to great success, and then the Kentucky defense would be able to somehow run roughshod over an experienced and good Texas OL in order to get to its 1st round caliber QB and TBs. Okay. Cool.

How about Florida?

Florida has gone 6-7/5-7/6-7 for the past three years. They haven't had a winning season since people believed cloth facemasks were a new fashion statement. 

Since 2018 (excluding corona 2020 in which they went 3-1 on the road) they are 10-12 on the road. But wait! That includes 2018/2019 when Mullen had UF on good footing and they went 7-1 on the road. From 2021 forward, they're 3-11 and 2-7 under Sun Belt Billy. Their lone 2021 road win was against a Texas A&M team that couldn't tie its shoes. They actually lost at hapless Vandy that same season because they were fucking terrible also. Their 2023 road victory? An absurd gift of a comeback against another loser program - South Carolina. There isn't more than maybe a couple of players on that roster that understand anything about winning against good teams on the road.

Meanwhile, UF has been ravaged in the portal and there is the stench of death looming over the program. They play the toughest schedule in, maybe, history, in 2024. They come to Texas immediately after playing their emotional rivalry game against Georgia in Jacksonville. Barring a miracle, Napier is probably already fired when they visit Texas and they're playing out the string. This is a "trap" game in which anyone can reasonably expect these guys to get up on the road after being pummeled by a probable top 3 team at a neutral site?

Get a grip.

Anything can happen on any given Saturday, but the L risk for Texas next season is 1) UGA in Austin 2) @ Michigan 3) Jihad in Dallas 4) Jihad in BCS 5) Jihad in Fayetteville and 6) idiotic grab bag of options for Sarkisian to simply fail as a coach. Texas ATM and Arkansas should legitimately suck next season, so anything past #3 is just worrying about being stuck in 2010-2022 land again. Go there if you must, spare the rest of us that journey.

 

[Billy Pilgrim 1912]

Don’t get the love for Ohio State. They looked terrible against Michigan and overwhelmed agsinst a good but not great Missouri team. Ohio State, Penn State and Iowa and offensively challenged.

[Js1 85101]

18 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

You guys rival sarvanaash with your constant offseason "here's how we lose a bunch of games no one is expecting" handwringing. It's become a sure sign of spring approaching on Surly when you two start picking out losses and assuming worst case scenarios. 

 

Battered Horn Syndrome. 

[WBT 20418]

6 hours ago, satyanash said:

Find someone that loves you the way Stuart Mandel loves Oregon

[ousux 5586]

This.  Anyone calling 2 losses a "floor" is either insane or has no idea what "floor" means.  10-2 is a reasonable prediction and would frankly represent an extremely successful season and guaranteed playoff spot (almost certainly hosting first round with our schedule).  But it seems like people forget about things like injuries to key players will occur and the fact that it's certain every team in the country is going to play some stinkers over the course of the year (and you just hope that doesn't happen against teams with a pulse).  I mean we play @ Michigan, UGA and 3 rivalry games (2 on the road).  We could easily lose 4 next year if the chips don't fall our way.  I'm betting Vegas team totals for us is set at 9.5 or 10.

Also can't discount the "nobody wants to be the first legacy SEC member to lose to the noobs from the Big 12" even though realistcally Bama already took that one for the team.

Even so we won't be anyone's Superbowl next season...except aggy of course.

[Park Gothic 4968]

2 hours ago, Codaxx said:

I have not done it, because it is way too early, but if you assign a percentage to each game. I would bet you come up with a win total in the 8.5-9.5 area. As fans we tend to see a game that Texas is a 3 pts favorite in and mark it down as a win.. 

[Bama Llama 1447]

18 hours ago, Hornius Emeritus said:

Texas 9-1 odds of winning the national championship next year. Georgia the favorite.

 

So, I get 9-1 odds on Texas and 6-1 on Bama to win the national championship? Hell, man, I’d bet 10-1 a pissant (pronounced “piss-aynt”) could eat a bale of hay! Give me both for $100!

[VABuckeye 2472]

3 hours ago, Billy Pilgrim said:

Don’t get the love for Ohio State. They looked terrible against Michigan and overwhelmed agsinst a good but not great Missouri team. Ohio State, Penn State and Iowa and offensively challenged.

Lost by 6 at TCUn with a chance to win in the final minute against the national champions.  If that’s your fucking definition of terrible I don’t know what to tell you. 
 

We lost our starting QB against Missouri.  Yeah, most teams are offensively challenged if that happens. Ohio State has had one of the best offenses in college football for many yeah and if that’s challenged well then you’re mentally challenged. 
 

There are stupid fucking takes and then there’s you lumping Ohio State in with Penn State and Iowa.  

Edited January 10 by VABuckeye

[Reynolds Woodcock 4668]

1 hour ago, VABuckeye said:

Lost by 6 at TCUn with a chance to win in the final minute against the national champions.  If that’s your fucking definition of terrible I don’t know what to tell you. 
 

We lost our starting QB against Missouri.  Yeah, most teams are offensively challenged if that happens. Ohio State has had one of the best offenses in college football for many yeah and if that’s challenged well then you’re mentally challenged. 
 

There are stupid fucking takes and then there’s you lumping Ohio State in with Penn State and Iowa.  

You left out the most important detail. Your daddy might be headed off to the NFL, so Day actually has a chance to do something! 

[gmr548 16494]

8 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

 

You guys rival sarvanaash with your constant offseason "here's how we lose a bunch of games no one is expecting" handwringing. It's become a sure sign of spring approaching on Surly when you two start picking out losses and assuming worst case scenarios. 

If you'd like to take the under on 8.5 for Texas next year, consider this an open invite to bet me any dollar figure you'd like to pledge on the under, and I'll take the over. 

Kentucky is now a threat? On the road, in Austin? Since the bestest Kentucky season ever in 2018, in which they went 10-3, let's look at their road performance:

2018-2023 (excluding corona 2020, in which they went 1-4 on the road) they are 12-11. Man, over .500 as a middling team in the SEC, on the road, is pretty impressive, right? 6 of those 12 wins are @ Louisville and @ Vanderbilt. Both programs during this same period, outside of Louisville in 2023, have been between some level of mediocre and putrid. 

Kentucky has gone 7-6 two years in a row and both seasons include one FCS opponent. They are as plain as grits in recruiting and scheme, they're losing defensive talent to the draft, and they run an offense predicated on running success. You'd have to believe that another transferring QB behind a middling OL and a new back would be able to go on the road, gash the Texas run defense to great success, and then the Kentucky defense would be able to somehow run roughshod over an experienced and good Texas OL in order to get to its 1st round caliber QB and TBs. Okay. Cool.

How about Florida?

Florida has gone 6-7/5-7/6-7 for the past three years. They haven't had a winning season since people believed cloth facemasks were a new fashion statement. 

Since 2018 (excluding corona 2020 in which they went 3-1 on the road) they are 10-12 on the road. But wait! That includes 2018/2019 when Mullen had UF on good footing and they went 7-1 on the road. From 2021 forward, they're 3-11 and 2-7 under Sun Belt Billy. Their lone 2021 road win was against a Texas A&M team that couldn't tie its shoes. They actually lost at hapless Vandy that same season because they were fucking terrible also. Their 2023 road victory? An absurd gift of a comeback against another loser program - South Carolina. There isn't more than maybe a couple of players on that roster that understand anything about winning against good teams on the road.

Meanwhile, UF has been ravaged in the portal and there is the stench of death looming over the program. They play the toughest schedule in, maybe, history, in 2024. They come to Texas immediately after playing their emotional rivalry game against Georgia in Jacksonville. Barring a miracle, Napier is probably already fired when they visit Texas and they're playing out the string. This is a "trap" game in which anyone can reasonably expect these guys to get up on the road after being pummeled by a probable top 3 team at a neutral site?

Get a grip.

Anything can happen on any given Saturday, but the L risk for Texas next season is 1) UGA in Austin 2) @ Michigan 3) Jihad in Dallas 4) Jihad in BCS 5) Jihad in Fayetteville and 6) idiotic grab bag of options for Sarkisian to simply fail as a coach. Texas ATM and Arkansas should legitimately suck next season, so anything past #3 is just worrying about being stuck in 2010-2022 land again. Go there if you must, spare the rest of us that journey.

 

My brother in Christ, if you are going to dedicate this lengthy of a callout at least read my posts.

Earlier I said Texas's absolute floor is 8-4 and that I expect them to be better. You can do the math on whether I'd take your 8.5 win under bet there. I've been pumping sunshine across this board since the Sugar Bowl and subsequent teeth gnashing because I've honest to God come around and think this team has a legit championship window open for the next few years. Real doomsday stuff!

I was responding to a post that mentioned Kentucky specifically as one of the biggest tossups on the schedule. I don't agree with that at all because you're right, neither they nor Florida are going to be particularly good, but they stand out to me as the most likely options for an out of nowhere loss. That doesn't mean I think it's likely. Someone out there is the world's tallest dwarf, that doesn't make them tall. 

 

 

[markstanco 12505]

I think that's a solid analysis. I think Ewers returning will give us quite a boost (somebody alert the media, RomaVicta has produced a keen insight!). It will be his third year running the offonce offensé which seems to be the time when elite qbs announce themselves. He seemed to still be sort of tentative in his play this past season. I think that will be all gone.
I think Sark is learning from his past errors. He kicks the field goal. I think he will study his play-calling and improve there as well. I think we had a tendency to rely on clever pass plays instead of sticking with a ground game that's eating up 4 yards a play. Put the last seven minutes of the Alabama game on a loop in his office.
I think Michigan will be depleted enough to beat in Ann Arbor. I have no idea how Georgia will look because I so seldom see them play. We gave a highly ranked Alabama team all they could handle in 2022. Our home field advantage has become elite. Should be a hell of a game.
At Arkansas and even at A&M will be tough games. 
I think if we beat Michigan, we'll start rolling like we did in 2005 after winning in the Shoe. It will be better than the roll we got on after Alabama this past season. The Wolverines are not the best team we'll face, but that game, IMO, is the most important game of the season.
Beat Michigan, and I think we only lose one game afterwards. 11-1.  Lose at Michigan, and I think your floor of 8-4 I one game too pessimistic.

I don’t see Michigan as a loss. They are losing a ton, double digits to the nfl.

[AnotherLawyer 383]

9 hours ago, Skipper said:

This.  Anyone calling 2 losses a "floor" is either insane or has no idea what "floor" means.  10-2 is a reasonable prediction and would frankly represent an extremely successful season and guaranteed playoff spot (almost certainly hosting first round with our schedule).  But it seems like people forget about things like injuries to key players will occur and the fact that it's certain every team in the country is going to play some stinkers over the course of the year (and you just hope that doesn't happen against teams with a pulse).  I mean we play @ Michigan, UGA and 3 rivalry games (2 on the road).  We could easily lose 4 next year if the chips don't fall our way.  I'm betting Vegas team totals for us is set at 9.5 or 10.

You talk about forgetting things like injuries to key players and stinker games...but did you forget all of that from this last season? We lost starters in the secondary, suffered a season-ending injury to our Doak Walker candidate starter projected to be RB1 in the NFL draft at the time, had our starting TE down with nagging injuries ever since the 0u game, lost our starting QB for 2 games, brought him back when he wasn't entirely healthy, and made the CFP. We had literally all the things you talked about, including having empirically the worst officiating against us, and didn't lose 4. We should win every game except Georgia. You could say the same thing about this last year, except substitute Alabama...and we beat Bama. This year is the beginning of a 4-5 year run where the floor should be 10-2 every year.

[gatormarc 904]

6 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Kentucky and Florida both scream trap game with where they are on the schedule. I'm not particularly worried about either team in a vacuum but given where they fall a slip up would not surprise me. Glad both are at home.

Texas is sandwiched between rivalry games against Georgia and LSU on Florida's schedule, the game is at DKR, and Texas has a bye week before the game.

None of that screams trap.

Edited January 10 by gatormarc

[The_Great_Hornsby 3322]

3 minutes ago, gatormarc said:

Texas is sandwiched between rivalry games against Georgia and LSU on Florida's schedule, the game is at DKR, and Texas has a bye week before the game.

None of that screams trap.

This. Florida has a tough schedule. No way around it.

[Make em eat Taco Bell 1549]

what did look like 12 months ago? 

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

6 hours ago, closetojumping said:

Barring a miracle, Napier is probably already fired when they visit Texas and they're playing out the string.

Billy’s already fired. They are smartly paying him for one more year to eat next season’s Bataan death March before making the change, so whomever is the replacement doesn’t have to go 2-10 in year 1. 

[Nueces River Rat 5529]

21 hours ago, Hornius Emeritus said:

Texas 9-1 odds of winning the national championship next year. Georgia the favorite.

 

aggy 22-1?  
 

[troph 24562]

14 hours ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

Very reasonable take, although 4 losses would be extremely disappointing with our schedule and Quinn/almost our entire offensive line returning. Our interior defensive line will take a step down from all world, but I expect our edge and secondary should be improving. How quickly can the new pass catchers adapt?

Michigan will obviously be a good, top 10 team in an unfriendly environment, but it feels a little like Ohio St coming into Austin in 06. They lose a ton, and that should be a very winnable game for us.

Georgia is Georgia, and we’ll need to play our absolute best to win.

Will be favored against OU, @Ark, and @A&M,  but that’s a really tough three games to sweep. 

We should riot if we lose any other game on our schedule.

Back in the old days I think a sweep of those three rivals usually meant really, really good things and I don’t think that sweep happened that often. The good news is A&M and Arkansas are trash so hopefully this year it’s just the OU game to be concerned about.

[troph 24562]

12 hours ago, satyanash said:

Given the big 12 and ACC each get a bye I think you want the 5 spot if you aren’t 1 or 2. Of course I’m making the assumption ACC is 3 and Big 12 is 4 so those are essentially locked up. 12 / 4 / 1 / 2 to the title. 

[troph 24562]

Floor of 2+1. 2 out of UGA, Michigan and OU. This Texas team won’t lose all three. 2 tops thinking worst case. And then add a +1 of arky, A&M and shit the bed Sark silliness. That’s your floor 3 losses. Give me one or two more years of Sark not dropping a should win and I’ll take out the +1 for bed shitting. 
 

ceiling could be undefeated but I’ll call it 1 loss and win the whole thing. 
 

the floor is probably more likely than the ceiling but I would expect a top 7 finish with 1-2 losses and a decent playoff run and falling a tad short just because of odds.

 

[dcar00 14035]

1 hour ago, troph said:

Back in the old days I think a sweep of those three rivals usually meant really, really good things and I don’t think that sweep happened that often. The good news is A&M and Arkansas are trash so hopefully this year it’s just the OU game to be concerned about.

I was really hoping we'd avoid Arkansas being a regular on the schedule.  It's not that I think we aren't going to beat them it's just that the Jihad shit is enough with aggy and dirt burglar already.

Edited January 10 by dcar00

[wood 11126]

15 hours ago, LateAughtsHorn said:

I remember after 04 thinking there was no way we could lose Ced and DJ and get better. Obviously, I'm not saying we're in for a historic run next year; but I feel like we focus way more on what we're losing than what we could potentially be gaining when we have these discussions. 

QB will be in his 3rd year as a starter, should have the best OL we've had since 05, edge rush should improve, and the most talented players in our secondary will all be a year older. 

All this being said, we could easily drop 4 games with next year's schedule; but 2023 looked more like a team that was ahead of schedule than a team that was maxed out to me

 

Yep. Preseason polls are stupid and suck, and usually when I see us ranked high in them I cringe a bit and wish we weren't. This time I'm having no such reaction seeing us at 2-5. It seems perfectly natural given the shape of the program imho. It's a good place to be again after 18 years.

Edited January 10 by wood

[linux 1659]

2 hours ago, dcar00 said:

I was really hoping we'd avoid Arkansas being a regular on the schedule.  It's not that I think we aren't going to beat them it's just that the Jihad shit is enough with aggy and dirt burglar already.

If you don't play them regularly just means some players are surprised by the Jihad every 4 years.

 

[linux 1659]

UT's record vs Arkansas is terrible after they exited the SWC, like literally almost every game the team looks surprised they throw the kitchen sink.

[LateAughtsHorn 588]

1 hour ago, linux said:

UT's record vs Arkansas is terrible after they exited the SWC, like literally almost every game the team looks surprised they throw the kitchen sink.

Yeah, outside of 08 that game has been a slog at best and an absolute disaster at worst since I've been a fan. 

They're basically aggy without all the visibility and memes to keep them in our consciousness it feels like. 

[Juicy 723]

Michigan plays 2, 3, 5 and 11, that is before they may play in the CCG. Going to be a tough season. 

[Bama Llama 1447]

I am assuming Quinn Ewers reups with Texas. Given that every offensive play other than some sort of red zone wildcat begins with the quarterback, no other team even approaches Texas with (for now) Quinn Ewers at QB1 and Arch Manning at QB2. And the man calling the plays is no amateur either. 2024 playoffs will prominently feature the Texas Longhorns, with their ceiling #1. Over/under on losses - 1.5. 

[Codaxx 5600]

14 hours ago, Park Gothic said:

For you I will do it.. 

CSU- 0.9 

@ Michigan- 0.5

UTSA- 0.9

ULM- 0.95

MSU- 0.85

OU- 0.65

UGA- 0.4

@Vandy- 0.85

Florida- 0.7

@ Ark- 0.7

UK- 0.75

@ A&M- .65

Texas favored in 10 of 12 games. That gets you to 8.8, so call it 9 and 3 expected. That is just off the cuff with 0 work put into it. 

 

 

 

[Skipper 6103]

11 hours ago, AnotherLawyer said:

You talk about forgetting things like injuries to key players and stinker games...but did you forget all of that from this last season? We lost starters in the secondary, suffered a season-ending injury to our Doak Walker candidate starter projected to be RB1 in the NFL draft at the time, had our starting TE down with nagging injuries ever since the 0u game, lost our starting QB for 2 games, brought him back when he wasn't entirely healthy, and made the CFP. We had literally all the things you talked about, including having empirically the worst officiating against us, and didn't lose 4. We should win every game except Georgia. You could say the same thing about this last year, except substitute Alabama...and we beat Bama. This year is the beginning of a 4-5 year run where the floor should be 10-2 every year.

Our floor certainly wasn't 11-1 or 10-2 this year either if you have any understanding of what that word means.  You can't look back at outcome and call that a floor SMH.

[Skipper 6103]

26 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

 

Texas favored in 10 of 12 games. That gets you to 8.8, so call it 9 and 3 expected. That is just off the cuff with 0 work put into it. 

I'm betting FPI and similar will set our win total at 9 or 9.5.  But then Vegas will bump that up to 10.  Because as evidenced by this thread, give Texas fans a hint of success and any basic understanding of probabilities goes out the window.

[ryskey 447]

On 1/9/2024 at 9:37 AM, satyanash said:

12. Oklahoma State (10-4) - The Big 12 runners-up welcome back virtually their entire offense — Doak Walker RB Ollie Gordon II (1,732 yards), QB Alan Bowman (granted a seventh season),

lol 

[Juicy 723]

15 hours ago, Make em eat Taco Bell said:

what did look like 12 months ago? 

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/35391913/2023-way-too-early-college-football-top-25

Michigan 3

FSU 4

Bama 5

UW 11

Texas 16

[Brothahorn 10085]

Give me a sweep of the 3 assholes along with 9-10 wins, and I'll be happy.

[MuellerHorn 4195]

6 hours ago, Codaxx said:

@Vandy- 0.85

 

 

 

 

There is no fucking way Vandy beats Texas in 3 of 20 runs, even if the game is in Nashville. They're going to be terrible again next season. I'm an alum of both schools, so I actually keep up with Vandy football. They've lost basically all of their offensive production to the portal, including three QBs. That school is absolutely fucked until they decide to get real with NIL.

Edited January 10 by MuellerHorn

[AnotherLawyer 383]

9 hours ago, Skipper said:

Our floor certainly wasn't 11-1 or 10-2 this year either if you have any understanding of what that word means.  You can't look back at outcome and call that a floor SMH.

I didn't call it a floor. I called it forgetting that we went through that shit last year and came out smelling like roses, while pointing at all those things as proof that the floor should be lower. The floor for last year's team given where they'd been, what their schedule was, losing Bijan and Roschon, and the odds against them for being their last year in the Big 12, was likely 6-7 games. They proved they were a different team even through all of that plus the injuries and the shit officiating. Hey, cool, if you think the floor is losing 4-5 games with a team that's stacked, has a relatively easy schedule, and already showed how they deal with the kind of adversity you were saying lowered the floor. It's cool, but that's just, like, your opinion, man.

[Wulaw Horn 18979]

12 hours ago, Codaxx said:

For you I will do it.. 

CSU- 0.9 

@ Michigan- 0.5

UTSA- 0.9

ULM- 0.95

MSU- 0.85

OU- 0.65

UGA- 0.4

@Vandy- 0.85

Florida- 0.7

@ Ark- 0.7

UK- 0.75

@ A&M- .65

Texas favored in 10 of 12 games. That gets you to 8.8, so call it 9 and 3 expected. That is just off the cuff with 0 work put into it. 

 

 

 

You fucked up the Georgia percentage. Texas .8 imo. Yeah, I said it. 

[TrashMaster G 17387]

12 hours ago, Skipper said:

I'm betting FPI and similar will set our win total at 9 or 9.5.  But then Vegas will bump that up to 10.  Because as evidenced by this thread, give Texas fans a hint of success and any basic understanding of probabilities goes out the window.

Have you seen the FPI post-season rankings that have Texas at #7?

That algorithm fucking sucks.

[52-80 19083]

16 hours ago, ryskey said:

lol 

 

[Herpa Derpa 6111]