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Iowa Republican Caucus Thread - 1/15

Neonmoon

By Neonmoon
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1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

There’s just way too much unknown to predict anything other than a Trump nomination, but if Haley and DeSantis combine for over 40% of the Iowa vote, that will be pretty big sign to me that Trump is losing his grip.

Lol. Trump wins with more than 50% of the vote and it's a sign that he is "losing his grip."

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wildcat09

wildcat09 29260

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2 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

There’s just way too much unknown to predict anything other than a Trump nomination, but if Haley and DeSantis combine for over 40% of the Iowa vote, that will be pretty big sign to me that Trump is losing his grip.

Look who won there in 2016. It's literally right there above your post.

Hell, look who won there in 2012 and 2008.  Iowa is completely irrelevant. 

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4614

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2 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

Look who won there in 2016. It's literally right there above your post.

Hell, look who won there in 2012 and 2008.  Iowa is completely irrelevant. 

Winning Iowa doesnt correlate well with winning the nomination, but I wouldn’t say it’s “irrelevant”.  Trump’s 2nd place finish in Iowa in 2016 was shocking and the first sign that he was a legitimate threat.  The winner may not mean all that much, but there’s certainly something to be gleaned from the overall results.

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aggie08

aggie08 21434

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Posted (edited)

I'm with Snake Diggity. If 40% of people who register as Republicans vote against Trump--who has something resembling an incumbency advantage and protecting Trump is the entire GOP platform right now--it's something. At best, disgust. If nothing else, fatigue. I don't except any of the people who would prefer an R not named Trump to vote for Biden in November. But maybe they stay home.

Edited by aggie08
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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13049

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5 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

As President, I will not be intimidated by anyone!  Unless it’s cold outside, obviously.

...Caucus states are worthless predictors in general, and Iowa is especially unrepresentative.  None of it is predictive until you get to decent sized states with normal primary voting.

So what you're saying is that what happens in Iowa should be taken with a grain of.........road salt.

I'll show myself out now.

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13049

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11 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Negative temps and caucus votes that go into the night are gonna be a beating for their supporters.

Their neighbors in Nebraska that attended rallies will happily remind the freezing Iowans that the buses will be coming soon.

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89449

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4 hours ago, aggie08 said:

I'm with Snake Diggity. If 40% of people who register as Republicans vote against Trump--who has something resembling an incumbency advantage and protecting Trump is the entire GOP platform right now--it's something. At best, disgust. If nothing else, fatigue. I don't except any of the people who would prefer an R not named Trump to vote for Biden in November. But maybe they stay home.

There are plenty of Republicans who want the Trump agenda without the Trump shitshow/baggage - they'll happily pull the (R) lever for a Trump-lite.  That's why Nikki and Ronnie have been so careful about what they say about Trump before now.

If Nikki does well in Iowa, I'll be curious if she goes full-on in attacking Trump, or will keep doing what she's doing - attacking him on some things, pussyfooting on others.

I'm also wondering if Trump goes into burn-it-down mode if she does well in Iowa and beats him in New Hampshire and South Carolina - as in he goes after her and any Republican who doesn't vote for him in the primaries, and tries to turn MAGA against her and the non-Trumper Republicans.

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19449

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Obviously he looks so disheveled because of his very close wife's mother's passing.  Oh wait, this is Trump and a  poorly buried dead body we're talking about.  I meant:  dishoveled. 

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11777

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56 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

So wait, the Climate can be changed?  

The mental gymnastics would be impressive, however, mental gymnastics implies a brain to begin with.

Idea diarrhea describes MAGA much better.

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19449

Posted
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10 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

The mental gymnastics would be impressive, however, mental gymnastics implies a brain to begin with.

Idea diarrhea describes MAGA much better.

Alright, typical Lobo thread-derail.  Obviously we can get to the caucus news later tonight/tomorrow.  But there are two terminology issues we must address.  I use "Mental Gymnastics" all the time as just kind of a catch-all for stupid people justifying to be voluntarily stupid.  But you're right.  The "Mental" part suggests that they have cognitive prowess to begin with and most do not.  And "Gymnastics" suggests that these MAGAts are capable of doing an actual cartwheel, which is hard to do when rolling through Dollar General to buy a gun in a 4V Scooter.  So yeah, we need to think of a replacement for "Mental Gymnastics."  I'm not clever enough, but it's worth a charrette.   Idea Diarrhea does have a nice melody to it, but I can never remember how to properly spell it and then I got Alexa hounding me for several days afterward, "After your search, were you able to curb your diarrhea?"  

Second, Laura Loomer just put it out there "Weather Manipulation."  They don't like "Global Warming" (frankly neither do I).  They certainly cringe at "Climate Change."  So she just offered it up, from now on...it's Weather Manipulation.  Straight from the horse's mouth.  Or flatulence,, as it were.  Centuries of biofuels and hydrocarbons can't have any outcome on the weather, but a Sikh woman from South Carolina and some friends in the Defense Dept. can cause record blizzards with their "Machine" in certain swing-counties just in Iowa on the day that happens to be Trump's big re-boot event?  Or is just mid-January in a really cold state you fucking child Laura?   

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45499

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Posted (edited)
On 1/12/2024 at 4:39 PM, atomheartbevo said:

There are plenty of Republicans who want the Trump agenda without the Trump shitshow/baggage - they'll happily pull the (R) lever for a Trump-lite

I’d still like to know what exactly the “Trump agenda” even is that they like so much. Is it really just “own/hurt the libs”?  Because anything outside of that seems to just be enriching himself at the expense of the populace, usually specifically his voters. 

Edited by Biff Tannen
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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38127

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29 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I’d still like to know what exactly the “Trump agenda” even is that they like so much. Is it really just “own/hurt the libs”?  Because anything outside of that seems to just be enriching himself at the expense of the populace, usually specially his voters. 

The Trump agenda is the same as all Republican agenda. 

Transfer money to rich people, break everything and blame the Democrats 

 

 

 

 

 

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45499

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1 minute ago, Neonmoon said:

The Trump agenda is the same as all Republican agenda. 

Transfer money to rich people, break everything and blame the Democrats 

 

 

 

 

 

I know that is the politician’s agenda. I’m asking what the voters think the agenda is. 

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38127

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Just now, Biff Tannen said:

I know that is the politician’s agenda. I’m asking what the voters think the agenda is. 

Voters are cult members that believe in Guns & Jesus. They don’t give a fuck about anything as long as the white Christian family man has all the power and doesn’t have to face any consequences from his own actions. As long as they can blame the browns/immigrants, it’s all good. 

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yoladu

yoladu 4067

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On 1/12/2024 at 11:38 AM, Snake Diggity said:

Winning Iowa doesnt correlate well with winning the nomination, but I wouldn’t say it’s “irrelevant”.  Trump’s 2nd place finish in Iowa in 2016 was shocking and the first sign that he was a legitimate threat.  The winner may not mean all that much, but there’s certainly something to be gleaned from the overall results.

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19449

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Good.  It'll make keep me warm inside to watch a bunch of stupid people murder one another at another Capitol while I sit back with green chili pork stew.

It's not bad for democracy.  It's bad for stupidity.  If this leak is remotely true, it sets wheels into motion I didn't think would happen for several more weeks, it not months.  

How do we fan this flame?  

 

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Red Five

Red Five 40666

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He's been screaming about rigged elections since probably 2015. He was President of the United States for four years and still screamed about it.

Imagine being so stupid that you can't see what he's doing. 

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C-Man

C-Man 27058

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SMGDH: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ordained-by-god-trump-s-legal-problems-galvanize-iowa-evangelicals/ar-AA1mWv26

Quote

 

CEDAR RAPIDS, Iowa — “Billboard” Bob Klaus, a retired advertising salesman wearing a red, signed Donald Trump baseball cap and Trump socks to match his star spangled leather jacket and American flag cross necklace, said he lives in a house divided.

Klaus, a self-described evangelical Christian who hosts Good Friday prayer breakfasts, said his wife was considering backing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in Monday’s Iowa caucuses, but later leaned toward entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.

“It’s Trump,” said Klaus.

For Klaus, who echoed many other Iowa Republicans, the decision came down in part to Trump’s Supreme Court picks, which led to the overturning of Roe v. Wade, and his alignment with some Christian leaders. But Trump’s current legal problems — 91 criminal charges across four indictments, including allegations involving paying hush money to an adult-film star and trying to overturn the 2020 election — along with his fight against what he calls the “deep state,” prompted Klaus to liken him to David in his fight against Goliath.

“That’s why we as Republicans have to come together and stand behind him,” Klaus said.

For years, White conservative evangelicals have played a crucial role in determining who wins the Republican caucuses that kick off the nominating process. And this year, they are showing strong support for Trump, according to interviews with Republican voters, strategists and Christian leaders across the state. The decision in some ways reflects a shift from the kind of late-breaking underdog candidates they have embraced in the past, who had deeper roots in Christian churches, and Trump’s enduring dominance across much of the GOP spectrum.

In several ways, Trump is an unlikely hero for those who identify as deeply religious Christians given his history of committing adultery, promoting falsehoods, and uttering vulgar comments and insults about women and people who cross him. But many have overlooked these indiscretions and questionable morals.

“The support has gone from begrudging to enthusiastic. Many evangelicals now see Trump as their champion and defender — perhaps even savior,” said Barry Hankins, a history professor at Baylor University who is an expert in evangelicalism. “Unwittingly, in my view, many evangelicals are welcoming authoritarianism and courting blasphemy.”

Evangelicals made up two-thirds of Republican caucus-goers in 2016, when Trump fell just short in Iowa to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.), who anchored his campaign in deep outreach to the evangelical community and claimed a plurality of support from born-again or evangelical Christians, according to network entrance polls. Cruz was another example of an insurgent campaign that surged late with the support of Christian conservatives, including some influential Iowa Christian leaders, coming after similar victories by Rick Santorum in 2012 and Mike Huckabee in 2008.

In those contests, however, evangelical voters were more evenly divided than they have appeared to be this year in the run-up to the caucuses. Cruz won 34 percent of their vote and Santorum captured 32 percent. Huckabee had a larger consolidation and won 46 percent of evangelical Christians.

But this time around, they have largely lined up behind the candidate, Trump, who has long been the favorite here. And in large measure, the reasons they stand behind him are the reasons much of the rest of his base does, including Trump’s claims, without evidence, that he is the target of a politically motivated attack through the justice system.

Steve Scheffler, president of the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition, said that Trump’s description of the Justice Department and other government agencies as being weaponized against him resonates with evangelicals who feel as if the federal government “a lot of times, is not their friend.”

Congregation members pray during service at the First Church of God on Jan. 7 in Des Moines.© Charlie Neibergall/AP

DeSantis has tried the blueprint of the past three Iowa winners in open races — none of whom went on to win the nomination. He and his wife, Casey DeSantis, have crisscrossed the state visiting churches on Sundays. He embraced polarizing debates on social issues, passing a six-week abortion ban in Florida and curbing discussion of LGBTQ+ issues in schools. He won the coveted endorsement of Iowa evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats, head of the Family Leader.

Trump’s pull is evident even in some of the efforts DeSantis’s evangelical allies are waging to boost him. Vander Plaats, who has been highly critical of Trump, wrote in an op-ed that “caucusing for Ron DeSantis is a good way to be a friend to Donald Trump.” In the piece, Vander Plaats argues that DeSantis is better positioned to fight the “bureaucracy” and that “a DeSantis presidency ensures justice for Trump.”

A Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa poll released Saturday showed Trump leading among evangelicals with 51 percent support, compared with 22 percent for DeSantis and 12 percent for Haley. A survey in early December from the same newspaper and its partners found a similar breakdown. In that same survey, most respondents said that the Vander Plaats endorsement didn’t matter.

Standing outside a commit-to-caucus rally in Clinton, Iowa, recently, Paul Figie, a pastor and a Trump caucus captain, said Trump is “ordained by God.” He pointed to how he has seen Trump as being mistreated by the justice system and Democrats, equating the former president to a martyr. He dismissed the viability of other candidates, saying he was convinced that a higher power would put Trump back in office.

“Trump is the guy to be in there, and amen,” he said.

Trump has accused the Biden administration of discriminating against people of faith, suggesting at a campaign event in Waterloo, Iowa, that “Christians and Americans of faith are being persecuted and government has been weaponized against religion like never before.” Fact-checkers, however, have debunked that claim. Experts on religious liberty, such as John Inazu from Washington University in St. Louis, cite multiple major religion-related Supreme Court cases and say religious freedom is perhaps more protected than ever.

Trump has leaned into biblical comparisons. He recently shared on Truth Social a nearly three-minute-long video depicting him as a messiah — and played it at a rally. A narrator intones that “on June 14, 1946, God looked down on his planned paradise and said, ‘I need a caretaker,’ so God gave us Trump” as a baby picture of Trump fills the screen.

Some evangelicals in Iowa found the video distasteful and criticized the former president for promoting it.

“That upset a lot of people, including myself, because Trump isn’t our messiah, and he’s not heir apparent,” said Michael Demastus, a pastor of the Fort Des Moines Church of Christ, who has not revealed who he is supporting, but said it would not be Trump.

Iowa Senate President Amy Sinclair, who has endorsed DeSantis, was also critical of the video.

“If you have to make yourself into a Christian by making a video, then you’re probably trying too hard,” she said. “Maybe you should just act like one instead.”

First Church of God Pastor Charles Hundley sings a hymn during morning service on Jan. 7 in Des Moines.© Charlie Neibergall/AP

Demastus and Sinclair also argued that Trump alienated evangelicals in Iowa when he called the state’s six-week abortion ban “terrible.”

“That’s just a slap in the face to the people of the state of Iowa who frankly launched him in 2016,” Sinclair said.

Many of Trump’s critics here believe DeSantis will do well with devout evangelicals, but that more casual worshipers who identify as evangelical will gravitate to Trump. Strategists with the pro-DeSantis super PAC Never Back Down, which has effectively been running DeSantis’s field operation in Iowa, have tracked voters’ faith habits in great detail and have long argued Iowa is favorable territory for DeSantis in part because of high levels of “Bible reading.”

Meanwhile Haley, who is competing with DeSantis to be the main Trump alternative, is less of a natural fit for conservative evangelical voters in Iowa, especially because she’s seen as being wishy-washy over her support for a national abortion ban. (Haley has said she would sign a federal abortion ban if one was passed by Congress, but she reiterated that the odds of that happening are slim given a lack of consensus.) But she has won some support of notable evangelical leaders in the state, including Marlys Popma, a former president of Iowa Right to Life who said in a new ad that Haley will “keep the radical left from ruining our culture” and “won’t let boys play girls’ sports.”

“Nikki is a sister in Christ,” Popma says in the spot running in Iowa.

Republican presidential candidate Ron DeSantis speaks to supporters during a campaign stop on Thursday in Ames, Iowa.© Ricky Carioti/The Washington Post

Nikki Haley speaks to likely Iowa caucus goers during a campaign event in Cedar Rapids on Thursday.© Melina Mara/The Washington Post

At the New Hope Assembly of God, a Des Moines suburb church that attracts thousands of attendees weekly, Pastor James Weaver said he will caucus for Haley. Weaver, who founded the church over 30 years ago, said he’s drawn to Haley because of her foreign policy experience and her potential electability in a general election.

Chip Saltsman, a GOP consultant who ran Huckabee’s 2008 presidential campaign, said evangelical voters often are depicted as only caring about issues of faith, but said that like other voters, they also care about the economy and world events.

“I think some campaigns make the mistake of putting the evangelical voters in this box that only care about pro-life issues or the Supreme Court. There’s a lot more to that group of voters than just that,” he said. “Now, don’t get me wrong, that’s motivated them. It’s important to them. It’s a moral issue. It’s political, all that is true, but there’s more to them than that.”

On a recent Sunday outside Walnut Creek Church in downtown Des Moines, Mark McColley, 71, explained why he is backing Trump.

“I am very disappointed that this country has been so brutal on Donald Trump,” he said. “It’s really brutalized him for the last six to eight years. And I don’t think that that’s warranted. I think he cares about this country. And I think that’s an important thing that we need to have.”

 

 

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16592

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The weather may in the long term prove beneficial to us.  If there is a record low turn out, everyone will just chalk it up to the weather.  What they won't consider is that there was a record low turn out due to weather combined with a lack of enthusiasm.  

Fingers crossed anyway for such a result.  

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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2 hours ago, BamaATL said:

The weather may in the long term prove beneficial to us.  If there is a record low turn out, everyone will just chalk it up to the weather.  What they won't consider is that there was a record low turn out due to weather combined with a lack of enthusiasm.  

Fingers crossed anyway for such a result.  

Anytime Trump is disappointed by turnout,  I crack a big ass smile.  I hope I’m smiling later this evening.

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