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Iowa Republican Caucus Thread - 1/15

Neonmoon

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16592

Posted
Posted
Just now, Degenerate Gardner said:

How much was turnout been hampered by weather? 

It's difficult to say, but to think that weather prevented all 60kish voters from 2016 would be fatuous.  

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45499

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12 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I was sort of hoping for this, in a sense to me it's a false positive for them.  They will spin the turn out to be entirely about the weather, but I think that simply isn't the case.  In my opinion this is a disaster of a showing for the Republican party.  If they are trying to imply that they had 33% no show due simply to weather is a ridiculous assertion.  There are several things going on here:

1.  Let's be charitable and say half of that 60k is weather related, so a 30k no show due to weather (would still imply a 20% loss in total turnout excluding the weather).

2.  Many of their turn out 2016 are frankly dead, either due to natural expiration, or Covid.

3.  They've lost people people due to their extremism, which are a ripe for us to pick up votes.

As I said, this is a disastrous showing for the Republican Party, no matter how they and the media spin it.  I'm encouraged about our collective prospects after this.  The media will bullshit their way around this and not even mention it, but the truth is Trump needed every single nutbag he could get in 2016 to barely squeak by, and frankly, he doesn't have it 2024, not even close. 

I agree, but the other side of this coin is that Dems still have to turn out big time. 

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Js1

Js1 85114

Posted
Posted
Just now, Biff Tannen said:

I agree, but the other side of this coin is that Dems still have to turn out big time. 

Well good thing Trump is a turnout machine for Dems 

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16592

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

I agree, but the other side of this coin is that Dems still have to turn out big time. 

No doubt about it, our country and our ideals are at stake.  However, there is every reason to have a winning mentality about it for Democrats.  I'll be curious to see how the numbers stack up in New Hampshire, but if we get a similar turn out, this isn't a fluke (it's not a fluke).  

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gmr548

gmr548 16517

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

It's difficult to say, but to think that weather prevented all 60kish voters from 2016 would be fatuous.  

It's also a noncompetitive race and everyone knows it. I wouldn't read too much into turnout.

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16592

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

It's also a noncompetitive race and everyone knows it. I wouldn't read too much into turnout.

The fact that Trump was begging people to show despite it being non competitive says a lot.  They knew this was going to be a turn out shitshow, weather or no weather.  

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gmr548

gmr548 16517

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5 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

The fact that Trump was begging people to show despite it being non competitive says a lot.  They knew this was going to be a turn out shitshow, weather or no weather.  

Weather or no weather, noncompetitive primaries/caucuses always have low turnout. Honestly, it can just as reasonably be framed as an accomplishment to get almost as many voters out as you did in 2016 in a negative 12 billion degree snowstorm to vote in a race that's already decided. I really would not spike the football over primary turnout.

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16592

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2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Weather or no weather, noncompetitive primaries/caucuses always have low turnout. Honestly, it can just as reasonably be framed as an accomplishment to get almost as many voters out as you did in 2016 in a negative 12 billion degree snowstorm to vote in a race that's already decided. I really would not spike the football over primary turnout.

Agree to disagree on that.  If the trend continues in New Hampshire and other states, it's not a fluke.  

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

Posted
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7 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Weather or no weather, noncompetitive primaries/caucuses always have low turnout. Honestly, it can just as reasonably be framed as an accomplishment to get almost as many voters out as you did in 2016 in a negative 12 billion degree snowstorm to vote in a race that's already decided. I really would not spike the football over primary turnout.

I hope bama is right. Hopefully a big chunk of his base died due to old age or covid. Would make elections easier to win.

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chainsaw

chainsaw 9838

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

From CNN:

Iowa Republican officials are sounding the alarm about the prospect of lower-than-expected turnout at tonight’s caucuses, with snow- and ice-covered roads across southern Iowa and parts of eastern Iowa that could diminish participation.

One top GOP adviser tells CNN that the turnout of 2016 — 186,000 — “will almost certainly not be reached.” Fresh projections are closer to the 2012 campaign cycle turnout of 121,000.

In 28 of Iowa’s 99 counties, there is only one caucus locations, which means some voters will have to drive considerable distances. Tonight, Iowa’s geography will come into play, as the Trump campaign is hoping for a broad-based showing in rural areas, while Nikki Haley is focusing on suburban communities, with far less driving distance involved. Ron DeSantis is working toward a hybrid of both, putting his yearlong organization to a critical test.

what if it was the covid, not the snow

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16592

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

Doing the hits:

Drill baby drill

Close the border

Stop the invasion

Coming from mental institutions 

They’re terrorists

Deportations

Whoo-wheeee!

That's like immediately trying to sell a car to someone not ten minutes after you just sold the same car to them.  

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elfenix

elfenix 34172

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

Doing the hits:

Drill baby drill

Close the border

Stop the invasion

Coming from mental institutions 

They’re terrorists

Deportations

Whoo-wheeee!

things that iowans should really care about:

Quote

Iowa is not a crude oil-producing state and does not have any proved oil reserves.53,54 Of more than 100 exploratory wells drilled in the state, only a handful ever produced oil. Those wells no longer produce, and their combined production was less than 500 barrels of crude oil.

 

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19449

Posted
Posted

I think the stupids think the ethanol added to our conventional unleaded and diesel fuel needs to be drilled outta the ground because that's where corn grows.  

You see, ethanol.  It's what plants crave.

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16592

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In the 2020 Presidential the election difference in Iowa was 128k.  A swing of 70k votes by just not showing up (dead or otherwise) doesn't put Iowa in play at (not that it is huge in electoral votes), but it would make it significantly closer.  Yes, that wouldn't take into account Democratic loses, but still, 70k is very significant.  

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19449

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One of Vivek's Iowa Field Directors was named Rodney.  I'd like to think when Vivek was riding to the airport to get outta Iowa and was on a call with a journalist, Rodney was holding up a legal pad on which he had written to Ramaswamy, "Say you're in car RAMROD!  Say car RAMROD!"  

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6540

Posted
Posted

 Pretending Iowa has never seen snow or ice in January is laughable. 

Pretending these people haven’t known where they need to go vote on this day for the last three months is silly.

Pretending they dont know the route or haven’t had it planned regardless of weather is another synonym for what I used in the last two sentences.

 

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19449

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on my cell, "Honey, do we need anything from the Hy Vee store before the storm?"

her, "Yes.  Some extra toilet paper, soup for the kids, and election integrity!"  

This is 100% going to be used in a Lincoln Project ad, and 100% proof we are living in a 100% recyclable simulation.  

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bolverk

bolverk 29405

Posted
Posted (edited)

No surprises here other than I thought Trump would get a higher vote percentage than he did. 51% feels like weak support for a quasi-incumbent. 

Trump is still showing weakness among suburban/educated voters. Haley performed relatively well in Ames (Iowa State), Iowa City (Iowa), and Cedar Falls/Waterloo (University of Northern Iowa), as well as the SW Des Moines suburbs. No discernible strengths for DeSantis from a geographic or income standpoint.

image.thumb.png.86fe0845aa05fadba3227709ca378031.png

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image.png

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https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/01/15/us/elections/iowa-republican-precinct-results.html

 

 

Edited by bolverk
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YGIFS

YGIFS 19449

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

0be5a8a0-dfdc-41df-8666-e50e574400c7_tex

Rama.  Rames.  Ram his cock down your throat anyway.  

He's actually the one of the field that Trump would probably appoint to a cabinet position.  But everything Trump touches turn to shit so Vivek better be careful about his future private sector life.  

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Voldemort86

Voldemort86 2259

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Posted
6 minutes ago, South Austin said:

I’m amazed that our country as a whole still gives a shit about Iowa. And I’m not just talking about last night’s caucuses.

It probably helped that it’s below freezing nearly all over the country and the caucus was on a Monday night. Lots of folks probably had nothing to do but try to  stay warm and watch the shit show.

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12409

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6 hours ago, elfenix said:

the only thing i would want to visit iowa for is el assico pounding busch lights with @Al_4_ISU

There’s plenty of cool shit that no one knows about here, especially in the part of the state where I live.  I love my low COL and unfettered access to beautiful outdoor recreation as well as having some thriving small towns with solid food options and legitimately world class breweries.
 

But our politics have gone to shit and I’m grasping at straws on that one.  I wish I could write off Trump voters as bad or stupid people, but I know too many who aren’t either.  Just got to live through this.

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South Austin

South Austin 52147

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3 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

There’s plenty of cool shit that no one knows about here, especially in the part of the state where I live.  I love my low COL and unfettered access to beautiful outdoor recreation as well as having some thriving small towns with solid food options and legitimately world class breweries.
 

But our politics have gone to shit and I’m grasping at straws on that one.  I wish I could write off Trump voters as bad or stupid people, but I know too many who aren’t either.  Just got to live through this.

I would call you our honorary Texan living in Iowa, but being a Texan isn’t much to brag about these days either.

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12409

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48 minutes ago, South Austin said:

I would call you our honorary Texan living in Iowa, but being a Texan isn’t much to brag about these days either.

I’d never claim Texas.  Not cause I don’t like it - I enjoy many parts of the state and its people and cultural contributions - but I’m about as dyed in the wool of an Iowan/Midwesterner as you get.  Just seems some days that I might be the last of a dying breed.

My grandpa was a state representative for 20 years.  He was and still is a Democrat.  He has no college education, joined the Marines a month before the Korean cease fire, and then came home to farm.  Guys like this used to vote Democrat in the Midwest.  Not all, or even a majority, but enough that we could be purple politically.  Now most of them either died or turned hard to the right.  I’m very much of that political outlook and tradition and it crushes me to see the turn.

He had a friend who was a Republican state rep from Alaska who would come down here to hunt pheasant in the 90’s.  He’d always say “Iowa Democrats are just Republicans that don’t want you to die” and I think about that a lot.

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12409

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It's just cold.  The weather was fine besides that.  It takes very little effort to put on a heavy coat, drive your warm car to the caucus place, and walk 100' into a heated building.

There is a very real fatigue of the current political climate, and the people at the top of it.  From 2016-2021 I saw Trump shit everywhere.  There has been a slow decline to where it's down to just a handful of nuts still making displays.  Did these people become Biden voters?  No.  But there seems to be mounting evidence of people just kinda punching out.  If 15-20% of previous Trump voters just don't turn out this fall, it's going to make a real difference nationally.

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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13049

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1 hour ago, Al_4_ISU said:

There’s plenty of cool shit that no one knows about here...

I haven't been to Iowa since we moved south, but have fond memories of the Amana colonies (where I had my very first brat and became a forever fan) and also Dubuque, which had a picturesque river beauty combined with the gritty manufacturing roots of its past that (at the time of our living in the upper midwest) had not been gentrified or yet upscaled. I've never minded "flyover" country with respect to the land and resources. It's amazing. But its politics are getting in its own way.

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12409

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

I haven't been to Iowa since we moved south, but have fond memories of the Amana colonies (where I had my very first brat and became a forever fan) and also Dubuque, which had a picturesque river beauty combined with the gritty manufacturing roots of its past that (at the time of our living in the upper midwest) had not been gentrified or yet upscaled. I've never minded "flyover" country with respect to the land and resources. It's amazing. But its politics are getting in its own way.

Dubuque has been gentrified but in a way that makes it feel pretty vibrant.  I'm about 90 miles NW of there on the Minnesota border (and an hour from Wisconsin) in similar hilly terrain.

Dubuque is a good example of one of Iowa's cool, relatively unknown places.  It has a great cycling trail (the Heritage Trail) for road bikes, a really good mountain biking scene with a whole new park that opened a couple of years ago, a ski hill with similar vertical drop to what you'd find in the UP of Michigan, some excellent food options, a couple of really good breweries, and a cool downtown that features a lot of old and restored architecture that's much more reminiscent of an older city in the eastern US than it is of a Midwestern/Plains state city.  It's not a vacation destination for people outside the area, but it's a really fun place to live nearby and go to for a Saturday.

Edited by Al_4_ISU
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