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Iowa Republican Caucus Thread - 1/15

Neonmoon

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troph

troph 24566

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I’d never claim Texas.  Not cause I don’t like it - I enjoy many parts of the state and its people and cultural contributions - but I’m about as dyed in the wool of an Iowan/Midwesterner as you get.  Just seems some days that I might be the last of a dying breed.

My grandpa was a state representative for 20 years.  He was and still is a Democrat.  He has no college education, joined the Marines a month before the Korean cease fire, and then came home to farm.  Guys like this used to vote Democrat in the Midwest.  Not all, or even a majority, but enough that we could be purple politically.  Now most of them either died or turned hard to the right.  I’m very much of that political outlook and tradition and it crushes me to see the turn.

He had a friend who was a Republican state rep from Alaska who would come down here to hunt pheasant in the 90’s.  He’d always say “Iowa Democrats are just Republicans that don’t want you to die” and I think about that a lot.

Rural Texas was very similar. I still can’t wrap my head around what happened. A long time ago I had a hope to retire to the Texas hill country. sitting on an oversized porch in a rocking chair with a Texas brewed beer in my hand in the warm spring when thunderstorms roll through and rain comes down around the live oaks is something I’ll have to replace. Some parts are ok because of migration but the true small towns are not. Climate and politics will drive us elsewhere.  Good people exist and I guess to an extent these are good people but they might as well be looking to shoot me down in broad daylight because their rhetoric, their beliefs and their vote is almost as dangerous. 

Edited by troph
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Mrs Whiggins

Mrs Whiggins 13049

Posted
Posted

IIRC, Iowa was also pretty big in starting and continuing a 'rails to trails' program repurposing unused RR tracks to bicycle/hiking trails. When I lived in Nebraska, they had some of those and it was really nice.

The glaciated areas in those states (WI/Iowa) are very unique and fun to explore. Devil's Lake (the natural parts not the touristy parts) was fun to hike. Driving along the Mississippi in the fall before the rains came and dropped the leaves was another. We didn't have much $$ so we would find little day trips here and there to get away and like you said, quite a few fun places to spend a day.

Back to the caucus though, I've derailed this enough I suppose!

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aggie08

aggie08 21434

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

image.thumb.png.9c41b033df3cef607a40c889afebf4be.png“I’m not racist but” followed by vomiting racist shit about a guy born in Ohio. 

Trying to thread the needle for voters that are so racist that they might vote for you to try to seem not so racist is some tough sledding.

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troph

troph 24566

Posted
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

image.thumb.png.9c41b033df3cef607a40c889afebf4be.png“I’m not racist but” followed by vomiting racist shit about a guy born in Ohio. 

To be fair Swamy isn’t a last name that screams US statesman to anyone. And add to that US Hindu population was integral to 9/11 so there’s that too.

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troph

troph 24566

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Trying to thread the needle for voters that are so racist that they might vote for you to try to seem not so racist is some tough sledding.

It’s easy, hate the people they hate. Yo! You hate western hemisphere brown people and those queers. I’m eastern hemisphere brown we are ok. Let’s hate the same people together !! 

8 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

IIRC, Iowa was also pretty big in starting and continuing a 'rails to trails' program repurposing unused RR tracks to bicycle/hiking trails. When I lived in Nebraska, they had some of those and it was really nice.

The glaciated areas in those states (WI/Iowa) are very unique and fun to explore. Devil's Lake (the natural parts not the touristy parts) was fun to hike. Driving along the Mississippi in the fall before the rains came and dropped the leaves was another. We didn't have much $$ so we would find little day trips here and there to get away and like you said, quite a few fun places to spend a day.

Back to the caucus though, I've derailed this enough I suppose!

ISWYDT

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aggie08

aggie08 21434

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, troph said:

It’s easy, hate the people they hate. Yo! You hate western hemisphere brown people and those queers. I’m eastern hemisphere brown we are ok. Let’s hate the same people together !! 

Except that you lost most of those voters with the word "hemisphere". They don't know or care where he came from, just that he's brown with a name they can't pronounce.

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Js1

Js1 85116

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Posted

Maybe this fucking regarded voters who answer polls will now start to realize Donald Trump will be the GOP nominee.  Since, on average, 1/3 of them think it will be someone else.

It won't be.  You fucking idiots. 

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texasdago

texasdago 7553

Posted
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37 minutes ago, troph said:

A long time ago I had a hope to retire to the Texas hill country. sitting on an oversized porch in a rocking chair with a Texas brewed beer in my hand in the warm spring when thunderstorms roll through and rain comes down around the live oaks is something I’ll have to replace. Some parts are ok because of migration but the true small towns are not. Climate and politics will drive us elsewhere.  Good people exist and I guess to an extent these are good people but they might as well be looking to shoot me down in broad daylight because their rhetoric, their beliefs and their vote is almost as dangerous. 

I totally get this... when we drive through Texas to get to NM or CO, you quickly see that rural areas are not only falling apart but filled with plenty of extremist types, some of which are more than happy to let you know how crazy they are (exhibit A below, driving from the east into Winters, TX).  Not to mention, cute little towns like Wimberley have been coopted by straight up fascists and neo-nazis (https://www.austinchronicle.com/news/2023-12-29/south-of-austin-white-supremacist-groups-are-flourishing/)

image.thumb.png.9f03f416fb6ea39dd0f0c93f7a6b3287.png

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12409

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

IIRC, Iowa was also pretty big in starting and continuing a 'rails to trails' program repurposing unused RR tracks to bicycle/hiking trails. When I lived in Nebraska, they had some of those and it was really nice.

The glaciated areas in those states (WI/Iowa) are very unique and fun to explore. Devil's Lake (the natural parts not the touristy parts) was fun to hike. Driving along the Mississippi in the fall before the rains came and dropped the leaves was another. We didn't have much $$ so we would find little day trips here and there to get away and like you said, quite a few fun places to spend a day.

Back to the caucus though, I've derailed this enough I suppose!

We have a ton of rail trails.  Within 30 miles of my house there are about 180 miles of rail trails, both in Iowa and Minnesota.  It's one reason I have 0 intentions of leaving.

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12409

Posted
Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, troph said:

Rural Texas was very similar. I still can’t wrap my head around what happened. A long time ago I had a hope to retire to the Texas hill country. sitting on an oversized porch in a rocking chair with a Texas brewed beer in my hand in the warm spring when thunderstorms roll through and rain comes down around the live oaks is something I’ll have to replace. Some parts are ok because of migration but the true small towns are not. Climate and politics will drive us elsewhere.  Good people exist and I guess to an extent these are good people but they might as well be looking to shoot me down in broad daylight because their rhetoric, their beliefs and their vote is almost as dangerous. 

Rural Iowans attitudes haven't changed that much - they're still very "live and let live" - they just stopped voting that way.

IMO because Facebook convinced them that if a Democrat wins an election, their dicks will be forcibly cut off and their homes will be seized and given to packs of rioting urbanites.

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19449

Posted
Posted

Already fun to hear from Texas Magas that the Trump numbers are skewed because it was so cold in Iowa last evening.  

Yeah, they're from Iowa.  They do this in the chill of a winter's night every four years.  It's not Texans voting last night when it was 17* and half the voters don't own coats or gloves.  The apathy is real.  Trump fatigue is real, and not the kind that Stormy Daniels refers to as, "It's okay, it happens to a lot of guys."  

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30120

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, aggie08 said:

Except that you lost most of those voters with the word "hemisphere". They don't know or care where he came from, just that he's brown with a name they can't pronounce.

“I saw on Facebook where Vivek means “pedophile” in his language…”

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Js1

Js1 85116

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Posted
46 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

Trump only getting 51% and the reduced turnout tell me what I need to know

Imagine the headlines if Biden got 51% in a primary in 2024. Trump is a defacto incumbent. 

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cactusflinthead

cactusflinthead 27594

Posted
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To that question

What voters might Biden’s team want to talk to? Look at the support in Iowa for Haley, the former UN ambassador and South Carolina governor whose surging campaign attracted roughly 20 percent of the Republican caucus vote on Monday night, almost displacing Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in a state that DeSantis had made the focus of his 2024 bid. The latest NBC News/Des Moines Register poll, released one day before the caucuses, found that almost half of Haley’s voters would abandon a Republican ticket led by Trump. A review of the polling data by The Hill noted that “43 percent of Haley backers in the state said they would vote for Biden if Trump is the GOP nominee, while 23 percent say they would vote for the former president. Eight percent said they would vote for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.” Among the overall pool of Republican caucus-goers, according to the NBC News/Des Moines Register poll, 11 percent said that, in a Trump-Biden race, they’d back Biden.

That’s without a conviction.

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12409

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Wonder how many of those one-third would still vote for him. "I said he'd be unfit, not that I'd vote for a democrat."

They don't have to vote for a Democrat to make a difference.  They just have to not vote.

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wildcat09

wildcat09 29263

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Posted

The low turnout is the most interesting thing from last night. It could mostly be because of the weather, but if it becomes a pattern in the primaries that's going to be setting off some huge alarms for them. 

 

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Js1

Js1 85116

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Posted
2 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

The low turnout is the most interesting thing from last night. It could mostly be because of the weather, but if it becomes a pattern in the primaries that's going to be setting off some huge alarms for them. 

 

The CIA is manipulating the weather to hurt Trump.  Will probably be a historic snowstorm in New Hampshire next week. /Boobert

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11668

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, wildcat09 said:

The low turnout is the most interesting thing from last night. It could mostly be because of the weather, but if it becomes a pattern in the primaries that's going to be setting off some huge alarms for them. 

 

Yeah, I think it is an interesting thing too to put a pin in.  As of now, I take it as nothing.  If it repeats, it's something.  A lot of spiking the football on this thread on this data point way too early.

Trump's superpower is fervor.  If he's lost that, he's lost.*

 

 

 

 

*to anyone other than a milquetoast walking skeleton, in which case it will still be close.

 

 

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'stache

'stache 21777

Posted
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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Al_4_ISU said:

There’s plenty of cool shit that no one knows about here, especially in the part of the state where I live.  I love my low COL and unfettered access to beautiful outdoor recreation as well as having some thriving small towns with solid food options and legitimately world class breweries.
 

But our politics have gone to shit and I’m grasping at straws on that one.  I wish I could write off Trump voters as bad or stupid people, but I know too many who aren’t either.  Just got to live through this.

Sorry, but anyone who supports Donald Trump these days is a bad person. There's no amount of excuse that can get around this fact. They might treat their friends and family well, volunteer at soup kitchens, donate significant money to charity, etc., etc., but anyone who knows what that monster says and votes for him is a bad person. Period. It doesn't mean you have to cut ties completely, I still associate with some out of business obligations or the like, but in my personal life, I just can't imagine having anything to talk about socially with someone who supports the active destruction of this country and demonization of "others" (of which I am on a few levels) which covers a whole lot of people in this world. Like someone else said, they don't even  have to vote democrat to get out of the "bad person" category, they just have to vote for someone else in the primary, and if its trump in the general, not vote at all, or vote third party. Pushing the button for such a despicable human being just cannot be explained away.

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bolverk

bolverk 29410

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Posted
22 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

Some interesting data to sort through:

  • Turnout was 110,000 votes last night, or 15% of Iowa's 700,000 registered Republicans.
  • This was down 41% from 2016.
  • A total of 8% of registered Republicans voted for Trump.
  • Almost half of those who bothered to show up chose someone other than Trump.
  • $124 million was spent on campaign ads, equalling about $1,100 per vote.

Now, I suppose a sample size equaling 15% of the universe of self-identified Republicans is decent from a statistical perspective. But if you also consider the prolonged campaign of winning over the most committed (i.e., fanatical) voters with lots of money, I really do wonder how much support Trump will garner in the general election when only half of Republicans chose him, a quasi-incumbent, last night. 

I'm probably making too much of this because Republicans are famous for falling in line behind their guy, and I certainly don't doubt the borderline worship his most faithful followers have for him, but this all seems to point to an overall lack of enthusiasm for his candidacy among the broader public.

Maybe it was the weather; maybe it was the air of inevitability; maybe it points to his core constituency being disengaged from traditional civic participation; or maybe most people are tired of his shit.

Let's all hope it's the last one.

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12409

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Sorry, but anyone who supports Donald Trump these days is a bad person. There's no amount of excuse that can get around this fact. They might treat their friends and family well, volunteer at soup kitchens, donate significant money to charity, etc., etc., but anyone who knows what that monster says and votes for him is a bad person. Period. It doesn't mean you have to cut ties completely, I still associate with some out of business obligations or the like, but in my personal life, I just can't imagine having anything to talk about socially with someone who supports the active destruction of this country and demonization of "others" (of which I am on a few levels) which covers a whole lot of people in this world. 

I'm just not this way as a person.  I know "others" who openly support Trump.  The most obnoxious pro-Trump display in my county belongs to a Mexican family who moved here about 12-15 years ago.

A lot of the people who support Trump simply don't believe that he's done the bad things he's done.  They think it's a media lie.  They're brains are broken when it comes to politics and they live in a different version of reality on that front.  The facts that inform your take that it's impossible to vote for him and be a good person are outright lies in their world.

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BehoId, The Underminer!

BehoId, The Underminer! 11668

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Posted

or simply people not dialed in on this every day (the low information voter).  if you spend you day at the shop on your feet welding and then come home to monday night football while your wife begs you to get gussied up for applebees, your vote is largely based on vibes.  same reason i supported (whoever) when i was in 8th grade.  i thought i was supposed to have an opinion and doing so covered up the fact that i actually was just blindly guessing something.

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texasdago

texasdago 7553

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

or simply people not dialed in on this every day (the low information voter).  if you spend you day at the shop on your feet welding and then come home to monday night football while your wife begs you to get gussied up for applebees, your vote is largely based on vibes.  same reason i supported (whoever) when i was in 8th grade.  i thought i was supposed to have an opinion and doing so covered up the fact that i actually was just blindly guessing something.

I think some of them are so blind to "Biden BAD!!!" like "Hillary BAD!!!!" or whatever that they will vote for Goebbels or Pol Pot instead.  Bunch of idiots.

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Al_4_ISU

Al_4_ISU 12409

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

or simply people not dialed in on this every day (the low information voter).  if you spend you day at the shop on your feet welding and then come home to monday night football while your wife begs you to get gussied up for applebees, your vote is largely based on vibes.  same reason i supported (whoever) when i was in 8th grade.  i thought i was supposed to have an opinion and doing so covered up the fact that i actually was just blindly guessing something.

There's a whole lot of that too.  The average Trump voter doesn't really understand the consequences of the vote because they just have more pressing day to day shit, and they aren't very well educated.

"This guy's gonna make America great again?  Fuck yeah!"

Edited by Al_4_ISU
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The Original Greaser Bob

The Original Greaser Bob 2799

Posted
Posted

Virtually everyone is a low information voter.  Scratch that, everyone is.

Trump voters resent Dems and minorities and immigrants and those with graduate degrees and anyone who they perceive sides with them.  Trump promises to get back at Dems and minorities and immigrants and intellectuals. 

That's it. 

The idea of trying to determine who has a lower intelligence level may be an interesting academic exercise.  But it's like an aggy arguing that their fans are better.  It just doesn't mean shit.   

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G650

G650 14111

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I'm just not this way as a person.  I know "others" who openly support Trump.  The most obnoxious pro-Trump display in my county belongs to a Mexican family who moved here about 12-15 years ago.

A lot of the people who support Trump simply don't believe that he's done the bad things he's done.  They think it's a media lie.  They're brains are broken when it comes to politics and they live in a different version of reality on that front.  The facts that inform your take that it's impossible to vote for him and be a good person are outright lies in their world.

Accurate. This is my grandmother. It's just a whole different planet.

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Red Five

Red Five 40666

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I'm just not this way as a person.  I know "others" who openly support Trump.  The most obnoxious pro-Trump display in my county belongs to a Mexican family who moved here about 12-15 years ago.

A lot of the people who support Trump simply don't believe that he's done the bad things he's done.  They think it's a media lie.  They're brains are broken when it comes to politics and they live in a different version of reality on that front.  The facts that inform your take that it's impossible to vote for him and be a good person are outright lies in their world.

I was talking to a Trumper in his 70s a few months ago. He was going on about Biden and Hunter. I asked him if he was concerned about Trump's 91 felony charges and his sexual assault conviction. He just waved it all off, literally. (waving hand) "Oh they're just all coming for him now because he's out of office." And that was that.

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TexasEd

TexasEd 8064

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The CIA is manipulating the weather to hurt Trump.  Will probably be a historic snowstorm in New Hampshire next week. /Boobert

It's the Jewish Space Lasers affecting the weather /MTG

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