Iowa Republican Caucus Thread - 1/15

[Guest]

[RDCanecutter 26287]

52 minutes ago, texasdago said:

I think some of them are so blind to "Biden BAD!!!" like "Hillary BAD!!!!" or whatever that they will vote for Goebbels or Pol Pot instead.  Bunch of idiots.

Hey Motherfucker, Pol Pot got stuff DONE!

[Skipper 6103]

1 hour ago, Al_4_ISU said:

 

A lot of the people who support Trump simply don't believe that he's done the bad things he's done.  They think it's a media lie.  They're brains are broken when it comes to politics and they live in a different version of reality on that front.  The facts that inform your take that it's impossible to vote for him and be a good person are outright lies in their world.

I think this is a big chunk of it. In particular the older generation and the undecuated.  I'll add in a couple of other categories among those that are educated when I tried to drill down into this last election.  1. People that feel so strongly about pro-life that it trumps (no pun intended) everything.  I don't really pretend to understand these people or how they can reconcile morality voting for Trump but they exist.  2. People that think the liberalism in society is a bigger problem than Trump. Last cycle it was BLM riots and more locally Eyes of Texas and Homeless infiltration in Texas cities.  This cycle it will be DEI and open borders among other issues.  Fox News and social media will help shift focus from Trump's idiocy onto these and similar social issues to convince educated whites that holding their nose and voting Trump is better than 4 years of further spiraling and "becoming California or Chicago".

It doesn't necessarily need to make logical sense as none of these voters are going to do a critical analysis as to how much Biden's policies actually impact whatever perceived issue they have.  It's enough to get this type to say I don't like Trump but I'm not voting for "X liberal policy" and that's that.  

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

30 minutes ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

THE MORNING AFTER

ELON MUSK DOES NOT HAVE HALF THE WORLD'S MONEY

ERA OF EQUALITY IS UPON US!

STATISTICAL RETARD REPORT

[Hornius Emeritus 12420]

If 58 thousand voters in Iowa voted for Trump, that's fewer than 3% of Iowa's registered voters.

Edited January 16 by Hornius Emeritus

[YGIFS 19449]

Yes, but you fail to understand is that it was in Iowa in January.  And they're not simply used to cold weather.  

['stache 21777]

Isn't that normal for cockususes? They are meetings not voting polls. Very small percentage of voters appear. Never made sense to me tbh.

Edited January 16 by 'stache

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

32 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I think this is a big chunk of it. In particular the older generation and the undecuated.  I'll add in a couple of other categories among those that are educated when I tried to drill down into this last election.  1. People that feel so strongly about pro-life that it trumps (no pun intended) everything.  I don't really pretend to understand these people or how they can reconcile morality voting for Trump but they exist.  2. People that think the liberalism in society is a bigger problem than Trump. Last cycle it was BLM riots and more locally Eyes of Texas and Homeless infiltration in Texas cities.  This cycle it will be DEI and open borders among other issues.  Fox News and social media will help shift focus from Trump's idiocy onto these and similar social issues to convince educated whites that holding their nose and voting Trump is better than 4 years of further spiraling and "becoming California or Chicago".

It doesn't necessarily need to make logical sense as none of these voters are going to do a critical analysis as to how much Biden's policies actually impact whatever perceived issue they have.  It's enough to get this type to say I don't like Trump but I'm not voting for "X liberal policy" and that's that.  

This is an issue I see almost daily from conservatives I know.

I live 10 miles from the Minnesota border.  Minnesota is heading in a much different direction politically than Iowa.  This is almost 100% by driven by people who live in a 30 mile radius in the Twin Cities.  The majority of people who live outside of that circle in Minnesota are absolutely fucking FURIOUS about their state level politics (much like I am with my own for the opposite reason) and Minneapolis has become this absolute beacon for right winger anger in the Upper Midwest.  It's the new California around here.

[Js1 85116]

1 minute ago, 'stache said:

Isn't that normal for cockususes? They are meetings not voting polls. Very small percentage of voters appear. Never made sense to me tbh.

Yes.  They don't get high turnout because it's basically the most ardent supporters show up to stand around for hours on end instead of just walking in, voting and leaving. Bernie was super competitive in 2016 caucuses and won Iowa and Nevada in 2020. 

[bolverk 29410]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yes.  They don't get high turnout because it's basically the most ardent supporters show up to stand around for hours on end instead of just walking in, voting and leaving. Bernie was super competitive in 2016 caucuses and won Iowa and Nevada in 2020. 

This tells me his base is not comprised of civically minded people if he can only get 51% of the vote in Iowa. I don't know how/if that can be leveraged, though, if he remains on the ballot in the general election. But it's scary as fuck that a bunch of in-denial, know-nothing cultists can bring down this country when he gets them into a frothing rage come this fall.

[G650 14111]

33 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

And they're not simply used to cold weather.  

This is funny because as I think of it, I am pretty sure that the coldest I've ever been was standing on a runway in Des Moines in the winter about 25 years ago.

[tx 3 putt 76414]

1 hour ago, Hornius Emeritus said:

If 58 thousand voters in Iowa voted for Trump, that's fewer than 3% of Iowa's registered voters.

 

[Js1 85116]

We must secure the integrity of the voting popcorn! 

[Goredho 17349]

6 minutes ago, bolverk said:

This tells me his base is not comprised of civically minded people if he can only get 51% of the vote in Iowa. I don't know how/if that can be leveraged, though, if he remains on the ballot in the general election. But it's scary as fuck that a bunch of in-denial, know-nothing cultists can bring down this country when he gets them into a frothing rage come this fall.

I mean, 43% of registered voters didn't vote in 2012.  A significant number of these people didn't vote because they believe the system is rigged against them.  Their vote won't matter.  Trump turned them into Republican voters.  This is why the "polls of likely voters" were so fucking off.  A bunch of unlikely voters were suddenly motivated to vote.  Without them, the GOP fades away as demographics change.

He's talking to them again, and its why all of this legal jeopardy helps Trump.  The last election was rigged.  Your vote was stolen.  They are trying to rig this one.  They are trying to keep you from being able to vote for me, your champion, ever again.  They are trying to hold you down, again.  To put you back in your place in the bottom of the fucking American shit heap.

This is the important thing to understand:  He is taking the basket of deplorables' perceived victimization at the hands of the educated, successful and prosperous societal elite and attaching it to himself.  He is saying that he is being victimized just like they are.  Persecuted.  Oppressed.  Held back through no fault of his own.  But, he's giving them a way to feel like they are doing something about that victimization.  Get out and vote.  Help me and you are helping yourself.  You aren't deplorable.  Your life has been made deplorable by "them".  Vote for me, and you are doing something important against "them", and with "them" gone, your life will be what it should be.

The truly sad thing is that all the energy and resources they put into their support of Trump is just completely wasted.  Even (especially?) if Trump wins, their life does not improve.  They will still be in the double wide struggling to make ends meet, falling further and further behind against inflation.  I'm not saying their support should be redirected to Biden, either.  Just fucking use that energy and those resources towards education, or training, or anything else not criminal and their life has a chance to improve more than it does with personality X moving into the White House.

The easiest way to expose Trump as a fraud would be to give these people real help in the form of government policy and investments.  Trump's self-portrayal as their benefactor can only stand up in a vacuum of empathy and beneficence from the rest of society.

[bolverk 29410]

@Goredho I agree with all of that. The problem is Republican obstructionism in Congress that blocks any effort Biden/the Dems might make to actually help them, but those people keep voting against their own self-interest.

[Gatorubet 30120]

2 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

or simply people not dialed in on this every day (the low information voter).  if you spend you day at the shop on your feet welding and then come home to monday night football while your wife begs you to get gussied up for applebees, your vote is largely based on vibes.  same reason i supported (whoever) when i was in 8th grade.  i thought i was supposed to have an opinion and doing so covered up the fact that i actually was just blindly guessing something.

now do Trump loving doctors and lawyers and such…

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

3 minutes ago, Goredho said:

I mean, 43% of registered voters didn't vote in 2012.  A significant number of these people didn't vote because they believe the system is rigged against them.  Their vote won't matter.  Trump turned them into Republican voters.  This is why the "polls of likely voters" were so fucking off.  A bunch of unlikely voters were suddenly motivated to vote.  Without them, the GOP fades away as demographics change.

He's talking to them again, and its why all of this legal jeopardy helps Trump.  The last election was rigged.  Your vote was stolen.  They are trying to rig this one.  They are trying to keep you from being able to vote for me, your champion, ever again.  They are trying to hold you down, again.  To put you back in your place in the bottom of the fucking American shit heap.

This is the important thing to understand:  He is taking the basket of deplorables' perceived victimization at the hands of the educated, successful and prosperous societal elite and attaching it to himself.  He is saying that he is being victimized just like they are.  Persecuted.  Oppressed.  Held back through no fault of his own.  But, he's giving them a way to feel like they are doing something about that victimization.  Get out and vote.  Help me and you are helping yourself.  You aren't deplorable.  Your life has been made deplorable by "them".  Vote for me, and you are doing something important against "them", and with "them" gone, your life will be what it should be.

The truly sad thing is that all the energy and resources they put into their support of Trump is just completely wasted.  Even (especially?) if Trump wins, their life does not improve.  They will still be in the double wide struggling to make ends meet, falling further and further behind against inflation.  I'm not saying their support should be redirected to Biden, either.  Just fucking use that energy and those resources towards education, or training, or anything else not criminal and their life has a chance to improve more than it does with personality X moving into the White House.

The easiest way to expose Trump as a fraud would be to give these people real help in the form of government policy and investments.  Trump's self-portrayal as their benefactor can only stand up in a vacuum of empathy and beneficence from the rest of society.

yeah, the educated voting democrat right now is a little self congratulatory.  i'm smart enough to figure out who to vote for, that's why i vote for my guy.  they other guys are not smart, that's why they vote differently from me..

 

i think it is also: this guy says burn it down.  what has this country done for me lately, a person of low prospects, low income, and low standard of living.  not just a ton.  the fact that i'm uneducated is why i want to burn it down.  i was left behind.

 

@bolverk They've seen D control in their lives.  They've seen R control in their lives.  Their lives stay the same.

[Gatorubet 30120]

10 minutes ago, Goredho said:

The easiest way to expose Trump as a fraud would be to give these people real help in the form of government policy and investments.  Trump's self-portrayal as their benefactor can only stand up in a vacuum of empathy and beneficence from the rest of society.

if only someone would expand Medicaid, and then the state governors could implement it and benefit their people….

[Brisketexan 104635]

1 hour ago, Al_4_ISU said:

This is an issue I see almost daily from conservatives I know.

I live 10 miles from the Minnesota border.  Minnesota is heading in a much different direction politically than Iowa.  This is almost 100% by driven by people who live in a 30 mile radius in the Twin Cities.  The majority of people who live outside of that circle in Minnesota are absolutely fucking FURIOUS about their state level politics (much like I am with my own for the opposite reason) and Minneapolis has become this absolute beacon for right winger anger in the Upper Midwest.  It's the new California around here.

To be fair, Minneapolis is such a shitshow that it's ALSO a beacon for leftwing anger.  One of the most corrupt, violent, and racist PDs in the country.  Minneapolis is simultaneously a liberal shithole where a hard-right gestapo runs rampant.  Sounds like a lovely place.

[Gatorubet 30120]

3 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

yeah, the educated voting democrat right now is a little self congratulatory.  i'm smart enough to figure out who to vote for, that's why i vote for my guy.  they other guys are not smart, that's why they vote differently from me..

Have you taken a look at the educational demographics on who votes for who lately?  

I thought my edumifacation was supposed to make me more smarter so I knew how to carry the naughts…

 

[Goredho 17349]

3 minutes ago, bolverk said:

@Goredho I agree with all of that. The problem is Republican obstructionism in Congress that blocks any effort Biden/the Dems might make to actually help them, but those people keep voting against their own self-interest.

I agree that that is what is happening, but it doesn't matter.  The Dems have to find a way to overcome that.  If the government is gridlocked, bypass the fucking government.  Get some of that George Soros crisis actor money and organize community investments and programs outside of the scope of the federal government and attach a big D to it.  You can't just say, "Whelp, we would have if only..."  I don't care what flaming bag of shit the Dems have to deal with, they were voted in to deal with it.  If they can't deal with it, they aren't the right person for the job and the party needs new leadership that can.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

 

5 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

now do Trump loving doctors and lawyers and such…

they latter doesn't really exist.  attorneys vote D at every specialty -- 18 of 18 -- per the very cool graphics within

 

https://verdantlabs.com/politics_of_professions/

 

but yes, in the country of 330,000,000, there is no universal theory to explain everyone's behavior.

[Al_4_ISU 12409]

12 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

To be fair, Minneapolis is such a shitshow that it's ALSO a beacon for leftwing anger.  One of the most corrupt, violent, and racist PDs in the country.  Minneapolis is simultaneously a liberal shithole where a hard-right gestapo runs rampant.  Sounds like a lovely place.

When people yell at me about how Minneapolis has become a progressive mecca, I like to point out how many more brown people have been murdered by the police there than Iowa.  

Yes, our governor is a psycho hose beast, but we aren't out killing minorities.  

I will say that I've spent time in Minneapolis since the riots, and it really didn't seem any different than before in most parts.

Edited January 16 by Al_4_ISU

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

7 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Have you taken a look at the educational demographics on who votes for who lately?  

I thought my edumifacation was supposed to make me more smarter so I knew how to carry the naughts…

 

educated are voting more and more democratic.  not sure if you are arguing otherwise?  i've seen stuff saying there is a recent pullback on this split if that's what you're referring to.  it is still overwhelmingly true that the more degreed you are, the more D you are.

[Brisketexan 104635]

1 minute ago, Al_4_ISU said:

When people yell at me about how Minneapolis has become a progressive mecca, I like to point out how many more brown people have been murdered by the police there than Iowa.  

Yes, our governor is a psycho hose beast, but we aren't out killing minorities.  

I mean....it's Iowa.  Hunting minorities there would probably have a lower success rate than hunting deer.  Yeah, sure, you've got a few mexicans at meatpacking plants and such, but not he target-rich environment that a major metro area has for cops.

[Gatorubet 30120]

1 minute ago, BeardIP said:

NYT and WSJ is reporting the Trump win as a good thing (e.g. coasting to victory) and touting that he won in all the demographics: "Frigid temperature put the chill on turnout. But with most of the votes counted, Trump still managed to win all but one county and was expected to sweep nearly every voter demographic: men, women, young people, college graduates, evangelicals, political moderates and conservatives."

https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/iowa-caucus-voters-candidates-results-62448104

 

You  do understand that these were ALL Republicans in what is essentially a primary vote, where you will always see the most ardent and motivated of Trump supporters show up. 

Saying Trump sweeps women and the educated demographic as a general proposition is as valid as Baylor’s rape investigations. 

[Js1 85116]

Of course they won't.  But it's the Dems who are racist and hate women. 

[Gatorubet 30120]

41 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I mean....it's Iowa.  Hunting minorities there would probably have a lower success rate than hunting deer.  Yeah, sure, you've got a few mexicans at meatpacking plants and such, but not he target-rich environment that a major metro area has for cops.

Now, now brisket, I think you’re forgetting the dairy industry in Iowa. There are enough Mexicans working in the dairy industry for anyone to get their legal limit during season.*
 

* I believe that per state law Home Depots are treated like a wildlife refuge. 

[RDCanecutter 26287]

1 hour ago, Goredho said:

 

The last election was rigged.  Your vote was stollen.  

 

Gotta get hip to new trends, baby.

[Brisketexan 104635]

13 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Now, now brisket, I think you’re forgetting the dairy industry in Iowa. There are enough Mexicans working in the dairy industry for anyone to get their legal limit during season.*
 

* I believe that per state law Home Depots are treated like a wildlife refuge a baited field. 

And being that us brown folks are migratory (I mean, migration is what has the Repubs all pissed off), you can't hunt us over a baited field.  

[tx 3 putt 76414]

[nbmishoid 941]

Like the Cowboy’s home win streak.  It has to end, and end ugly

[Gatorubet 30120]

20 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Gotta get hip to new trends, baby.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11668]

10 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

They picked Obama in 08 just off the top of my head. 

[Gatorubet 30120]

13 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

And being that us brown folks are migratory (I mean, migration is what has the Repubs all pissed off), you can't hunt us over a baited field.  

Seems you are correct. 

2 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

They picked Obama in 08 just off the top of my head. 

Real Presidents.  Duh!!!

[Brisketexan 104635]

Just now, Gatorubet said:

Seems you are correct. 

I mean, hunting us over tamales is just plain cheating.

[Js1 85116]

10 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

They picked Obama in 08 just off the top of my head. 

Obama 2008 and Bush 2000 were the only two times they picked the winner of the general election in the caucus. 

They've also picked: 1972 and 1976 "uncommitted" (Muskie came in 2nd in 1972), 1988 Dick Gephardt, 1992 Tom Harkin, 2020 Mayor Pete on the Dem side and 1980 George HW Bush, 1988 Bob Dole, 2008 Mike Huckabee, 2012 Rick Santorum, 2016 Ted Cruz on the Rep side so their track record fucking blows just to even pick the eventual nominee 

Edited January 16 by Js1

[RDCanecutter 26287]

17 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

I see the paparazzi have caught us at Poetry Night at the Duck Pin Lanes on payday weekend.

[Gatorubet 30120]

2 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

“ And in this photo, you can clearly see she is handing him a fake ballot that she’s written out” - Rudi, probably 

[Gatorubet 30120]

25 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

I see the paparazzi have caught us at Poetry Night at the Duck Pin Lanes on payday weekend.

Uh-oh…the Mennonite with the missing car might get hep if he sees that.  

[gmr548 16518]

4 hours ago, bolverk said:

This tells me his base is not comprised of civically minded people

What gave that away?

[TwiceHorn 31295]

3 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

yeah, the educated voting democrat right now is a little self congratulatory.  i'm smart enough to figure out who to vote for, that's why i vote for my guy.  they other guys are not smart, that's why they vote differently from me..

 

i think it is also: this guy says burn it down.  what has this country done for me lately, a person of low prospects, low income, and low standard of living.  not just a ton.  the fact that i'm uneducated is why i want to burn it down.  i was left behind.

 

@bolverk They've seen D control in their lives.  They've seen R control in their lives.  Their lives stay the same.

Well, there's a bit of irony here.  When this cohort was more center-right (i.e. shaggy), there was a lot of condemnation of low-information voters favoring the left (or, possibly more accurately, the pandering pol/policy of the day, which was often something "free," e.g, "free shit army").  Now, it's the same condemnation, but of low-information voters favoring the right, or Trump's version of it.  And, to be fair, these low-info voters are much lower than we thought they were (voting for free shit is one thing, voting against your economic interest because brown or queer is quite another).

There is an anti-democratic streak running through all of us that are more educated than most.  But the right is willing to pretty openly indulge that, and the center left is not.

Edited January 17 by TwiceHorn

[Pig Bellmont 8692]

5 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

THE MORNING AFTER

ELON MUSK DOES NOT HAVE HALF THE WORLD'S MONEY

ERA OF EQUALITY IS UPON US!

STATISTICAL RETARD REPORT

Also let’s not pretend that all these GOP primary voters won’t fall in line behind Trump just like the last two elections. 

[Pig Bellmont 8692]

13 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Well, there's a bit of irony here.  When this cohort was more center-right (i.e. shaggy), there was a lot of condemnation of low-information voters favoring the left (or, possibly more accurately, the pandering pol/policy of the day, which was often something "free," e.g, "free shit army").  Now, it's the same condemnation, but of low-information voters favoring the right, or Trump's version of it.  And, to be fair, these low-info voters are much lower than we thought they were (voting for free shit is one thing, voting against your economic interest because brown or queer is quite another).

There is an anti-democratic streak running through all of us that are more educated than most.  But the right is willing to pretty openly indulge that, and the center left is not.

I think that first category is a remnant of Raegan’s demonization of people on welfare and is largely made up by people on the right. 
 

That second category of low info Fox/FB/Newsmax voters is real and a significant percentage of Trump’s voting base

[BamaATL 16592]

13 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Also let’s not pretend that all these GOP primary voters won’t fall in line behind Trump just like the last two elections. 

We don't need all of them, they didn't win last go around at full froth, and if we peel off just 3% nationally it's a blowout.  So even if it's a 97% retention rate (it's not), it's a crippling blow.  

Our turn out is all that matters.  Them helping us is just gravy on top.  

[Michael Knight 12898]

 

[Dnaguy 11777]

21 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

 

[Macanudo 12928]

28 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

 

That's just sad on several levels.   I don't want anything to do with Vivek either but the average American can't tell the difference between someone of Indian descent vs. Saudi.  

[chainsaw 9838]

9 hours ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

People didn't show up b/c they knew the outcome was a foregone conclusion.  Every damn one of them will show up and vote for the Orange Cunt in the general election. 

I hear this, but also Trump was begging for a show of support. The lack of "obedience" is the story here

[chainsaw 9838]

7 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

this sick fuck is jerking off at a polling place