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2024 Houston Texans off-season thread

The Earl of Texas

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10,527

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10 minutes ago, Seasick Sailor said:

This makes the Nico deal look even better. Waddle is nowhere near as valuable as Nico, imo:

I actually did a side by side comparison because I had the same initial thought. Waddle has better career numbers and his year 2 is comparable to Nico’s year 3. But Waddle is a WR2 and probably always will be. 
 

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Jshep34
Jshep34

Not a bad time at camp today

TonyTexas
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Hank Kingsley
Hank Kingsley

Great day for the Texans. 

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Murfdogg21

Murfdogg21 4,423

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Nico had two disappointing seasons then one good season, after getting CJ and with most of his stats coming after Tank went down. Waddle plays with Tua and is the second option behind Tyreek and put up 3 good seasons. I wouldn’t use Nico’s great second half of 2023 to say paying him $24m/yr is a much better deal than paying Waddle $28/yr. I’m still skeptical about Nico (or any player handed a big contract after a statistical outlier performance during a contract year (yes, I know Nico had a 4th year on his rookie deal)) that they may get content with their bag and not play up to their maximum. At least he’s young enough to still be motivated to play for his next bag in 2028, hopefully.

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14,776

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On 5/30/2024 at 9:52 AM, Murfdogg21 said:

Nico had two disappointing seasons then one good season, after getting CJ and with most of his stats coming after Tank went down. Waddle plays with Tua and is the second option behind Tyreek and put up 3 good seasons. I wouldn’t use Nico’s great second half of 2023 to say paying him $24m/yr is a much better deal than paying Waddle $28/yr. I’m still skeptical about Nico (or any player handed a big contract after a statistical outlier performance during a contract year (yes, I know Nico had a 4th year on his rookie deal)) that they may get content with their bag and not play up to their maximum. At least he’s young enough to still be motivated to play for his next bag in 2028, hopefully.

Nico was the same receiver before and after Dell got hurt.

50-800-5 10.96 YPT with Dell in 10 games.

30-497-3 13.81 YPT after Dell got hurt in 5 games.

He missed one game during both pre/post Dell injury.

I agree that is a lot of money on a WR that has had 1 really good season, compared to Waddle who has had 3 really good seasons, but you need a QB and Miami has had one for all 3 years of Waddle's career, the Texans found one in year 3 for Nico. Plus, Nico came from Michigan and their run-centric offense, while Waddle came from Sarkisian's pro-spread offense.

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 21,054

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On 5/30/2024 at 9:52 AM, Murfdogg21 said:

Nico had two disappointing seasons then one good season, after getting CJ and with most of his stats coming after Tank went down. Waddle plays with Tua and is the second option behind Tyreek and put up 3 good seasons. I wouldn’t use Nico’s great second half of 2023 to say paying him $24m/yr is a much better deal than paying Waddle $28/yr. I’m still skeptical about Nico (or any player handed a big contract after a statistical outlier performance during a contract year (yes, I know Nico had a 4th year on his rookie deal)) that they may get content with their bag and not play up to their maximum. At least he’s young enough to still be motivated to play for his next bag in 2028, hopefully.

I get what you're saying but, respectfully, this is a lazy take. 

Let's remember that after Tank went down, we had other injuries at WR. Late in the year Nico was the only real WR threat and he still delivered. In the win against Denver he had 9-191 with a TD and the next highest WR total was Metchie with one catch for 9 yards. In the win vs. Indy to make the playoffs, he had 9-195 with a TD, the next highest WR was Xavier Hutchinson, 1 catch for 6 yards. To be the sole WR focus and defenses still not stopping him is a great sign. 

Clearly this extension had the blessings of Demeco and CJ, who are two people right now we should put a lot of trust in for this team. 

Some nice quotes in this recent article. https://www.bigsargemedia.com/2024/06/exclusive-texans-nico-collins-desire-to.html  The dude loves to play football. 

 

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Macklemore

Macklemore 2,874

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Didn’t know where to put this since we don’t have a Houston sports talk thread in the Daily Texan.

Huge loss. My morning and midday is locked in on 610 listening to Payne & Pendergast and In the Loop. He had great chemistry with the OG. Hate the change to my morning routine. Hope they don’t replace Landry with someone boring like Shaun Bijani.

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14,776

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6 minutes ago, Macklemore said:

Didn’t know where to put this since we don’t have a Houston sports talk thread in the Daily Texan.

Huge loss. My morning and midday is locked in on 610 listening to Payne & Pendergast and In the Loop. He had great chemistry with the OG. Hate the change to my morning routine. Hope they don’t replace Landry with someone boring like Shaun Bijani.

I like the guy on 790 after the morning show. Though nothing beats XM 84 during college football season.

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Macklemore

Macklemore 2,874

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24 minutes ago, HtownHorn said:

I like the guy on 790 after the morning show. Though nothing beats XM 84 during college football season.

Used to listen 790 regularly, stopped a while ago. Don’t like Salisbury and Matt Thomas can’t carry a show by himself. Wexler and Clanton are hometown guys and like both of them. This just sucks. 610 had the best lineup in Houston sports talk history with the past 5 years.

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tx ind

tx ind 7,013

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The Nico production argument is stupid and simple.  He didn’t have anyone to get him the ball, now he has the dude and it showed last year.  He’s a legit WR that was on a shitty team (think Andre).  You could have trotted out Moss and TO in their prime for the 2 years pre-CJ and they would have done fuck all.
 

PS, CJ is awesome:

 

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Fud

Fud 9,554

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13 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

Must not like any RB on the roster after Mxion and Pierce.

Or after Mixon

Peirce struggled at zone running last year, which obviously this offense is based on 

Akers played for McVay for three years, so he had a ton of experience in this offensive tree 

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Ignatius

Ignatius 4,025

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22 hours ago, TonyTexas said:

What issues are you concerned about?

At C and LG we’re banking on two guys who started/played in a total of 7 games last year, and one of them is fucking aggy. Tunsil and Howard are solid/really good when healthy, but the former isn’t right now and Howard is coming off a year lost (at least half) to injury. If everyone’s healthy and young guys take a step up we’re good, and obviously CJ and the WR/TE corps can overcome some issues. Glad we used that 2nd rounder on a swing tackle, both for this year and cap flexibility in the future…

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TonyTexas

TonyTexas 10,527

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^^^
I’m pretty bullish on the OL. Yes, Scruggs “only” started 7 games but he was a rookie and acquitted himself well when he played. And I actually think Green is going to show why he was a high draft pick now that he’s healthy and in shape. Tunsil is a great pass blocker,  Howard is good overall and Mason is solid. Hopefully Mixon gets healthy and can provide some semblance of a running game. That offense is going to cook. 

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Fud

Fud 9,554

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Last year Houston had essentially an average offense across the season, ranking 14th in offensive DVOA, despite featuring a rookie QB, rookie OC, rookie WR2, and an offensive line with perhaps the worst injury situation the modern NFL has seen

The passing attack was #3 in explosive play rate, but the rushing attack was ranked #25 in success rate. Obviously the offensive line issues are the primary culprit with the poor rushing success rate, but I think having a below average RB1 (albeit one who surprisingly surpassed most of our expectations) in Singletary and a RB2 who was a terrible fit in this offense in Pierce. Houston potentially significantly upgraded RB1 with Mixon (if his quad strain ever heals), and they potentially also upgraded RB2 with Cam Akers, whose entire NFL career has been spent in zone based offenses, and rookie Jawhar Jordan who's an excellent zone runner

If the rushing success rate improves significantly (even getting to average around #16 in the league) would mean easier passing situations for Stroud, and also more opportunities for explosive passing plays since that should mean more plays in general since you'll be converting more first downs 

With the Diggs addition, who I think will help particularly with chain moving, I think Houston should be a lock for a top 10 offensive DVOA, and I'm predicting a top 5 finish in that metric assuming average injury luck 

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