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NH Republican primary 1/23

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High Plains Drifter

High Plains Drifter 10,978

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4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


I am not exaggerating when I say that I will be celebrating in public like it was a combination of VE Day, VJ Day, the Longhorns winning a national title, and I’ve got Sela Ward on one arm and Susanna Hoffs on the other, and my wife is congratulating me and telling me how she’s gonna join in.
Correction…I’ll be celebrating 10X more than if all that happened.

What a pathetic list. I thought you said you were gonna celebrate, but not a single mention of launching an actual Saturn V rocket while ingesting meth ludes X up your butt while singing To Those About to Rock and performing the cannon parts with actual cannons. Among many other glaring omissions in your list. I’m embarrassed FOR you.

You misspelled “year.”

 

*For Those About to Rock

 

 

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19,449

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Numbers are a weird way to tell your political enemies you'll have them murdered if they cross you again.  But Trump gonna Trump.  He's scared and declining.  This is all a good thing.  Sure some of his GOP rivals will die as a result but that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make.  

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Born to Run

Born to Run 6,568

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On 1/6 I remember thinking to myself “at least we’re done with Trump after this!” So naive. 
I remember that day and, in real time, being utterly Gobsmacked that the insurrectionist were not mowed down with automatic gun fire in mass. I've feared cops my entire life, it turns out I can get away with a lot more than I ever thought possible.

I'm a white male, so your personal experience may vary.
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aggie08

aggie08 21,434

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1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

I haven't had a drink since the Sugar Bowl and am trying to make it til baseball season, but if he dies between now and then, I'm getting shitfaced.

 

1 hour ago, chainsaw said:

I'd understand.

If Biff has a sponsor, they'd understand too.

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19,449

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It'll be a reverse Mardi Gras.  We all stay sober and somber on Tuesday.  Then go on 40-day benders.  

It'll give time for the conspiracy theories to blow over as well, with drugs and alcohol taking the edge off the madness.

If Joe Biden is dead and currently being played by James Woods as so many MAGAs believe.  Then Trump dies, he is being played by a very tall, glistening Ham.  

As such, surly tailgate will have a very robust set of smoked hams that we will dry rub with cocaine and inject with honey and cough syrup and have the fucking fortnight of our lives! 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89,450

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1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

Why is a female VP an assumed thing now?  Especially on the R side. 

Mike Pence checked a lot of big boxes for Trump, and Trump no longer needs those boxes checked because those groups are firmly behind Trump.

So now it comes down to somebody who won't steal the spotlight from him, won't try to one-up him, and somebody that he finds attractive.  Look at the male Republicans frequently around Trump - none of them are attractive, and most of them are trying to grab all the attention and money for themselves that they can - game recognizes game, and he's not going to pick a fellow grifter.  It's got to be high-profile (nationally known) people who have gone out of their way to praise him, which rules out people like Henry McMaster and Doug Borgum(sp?)

That leaves people who are nationally-known for various reasons, but don't come across as massive attention-seekers at that level, which means somebody like like Kristi Noem, Nancy Mace, etc. 

Noem ticks a lot of boxes for Trump.

 

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Born to Run

Born to Run 6,568

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Well yeah, because Biden is the 46th president.  I thought it was appropriate.  The last bottle of bourbon I bought was Maker's 46 before 2020 election night as a nod to Joe winning.  No good?  I mean, I should probably go for something more high-brow but I'm trying not to drink anymore but figured it'd be appropriate if Trump goes down (either in the election or into the grave).  The booze isn't my worry, it's me being shot for flaunting his death in public or not knowing how to handle heroin-laced 'ludes.  And I'm a guy who could handle my shit in the day.
I have a friend that propped up another friend that was growing a shit load of mushrooms. I'll give you a enough to get 10 dudes higher than a cats cunt if it keeps you happily off the sauce. My wife had mental health success with it and we moved on. Couple of epic doses, and we were good.

Fuck pills or powders.
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F250

F250 28,691

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2 minutes ago, Born to Run said:

I have a friend that propped up another friend that was growing a shit load of mushrooms. I'll give you a enough to get 10 dudes higher than a cats cunt if it keeps you happily off the sauce. My wife had mental health success with it and we moved on. Couple of epic doses, and we were good.

Fuck pills or powders.

Please define "epic doses".

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Horn Under a Bad Sign

Horn Under a Bad Sign 20,345

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1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Mike Pence checked a lot of big boxes for Trump, and Trump no longer needs those boxes checked because those groups are firmly behind Trump.

So now it comes down to somebody who won't steal the spotlight from him, won't try to one-up him, and somebody that he finds attractive.  Look at the male Republicans frequently around Trump - none of them are attractive, and most of them are trying to grab all the attention and money for themselves that they can - game recognizes game, and he's not going to pick a fellow grifter.  It's got to be high-profile (nationally known) people who have gone out of their way to praise him, which rules out people like Henry McMaster and Doug Borgum(sp?)

That leaves people who are nationally-known for various reasons, but don't come across as massive attention-seekers at that level, which means somebody like like Kristi Noem, Nancy Mace, etc. 

Noem ticks a lot of boxes for Trump.

 


But Noem is from a state with no electoral votes.

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Horn Dogg

Horn Dogg 3,808

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89,450

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44 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

But Noem is from a state with no electoral votes.

She’s attractive, she hunts and fishes, she has publicly praised Trump many times, and there’s no danger of her trying to overshadow him (vs Karri Lake, etc,).

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Underdog

Underdog 28,457

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4 hours ago, Horn Dogg said:

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QFT

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Underdog

Underdog 28,457

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4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

She’s attractive, she hunts and fishes, she has publicly praised Trump many times, and there’s no danger of her trying to overshadow him (vs Karri Lake, etc,).

And she puts out. 

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RomaVicta

RomaVicta 29,794

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Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

oh. 

Just as it took TV news outlets 3 years of Trump's presidency to call his lies lies, how long will it take them (if they ever dare do it) to refer to Trump as an authoritarian candidate? I think you could say, based on quotes from Trump, he desires to become a dictator.

It's right there in the open. OBVIOUS.

I was driving in the evening and turned on NPR's breathless coverage of the NH Primary. All the usual commentary and individual voter quotes to support whatever they think the story is. 

1. It's absurd that the primary in tiny (but truly lovely) New Hampshire has such impact so early in the race. The talking heads explain why it and the even tinier nothing in Iowa are important: Perception. You fucking idiots are the ones who created the perception element and have magnified it every cycle by foisting wall to wall coverage on your audience. It will never change. I still hate it.

2. Break the template. Break your tone of aloof amusement about the process. Open your fucking eyes and see the real story: A would-be dictator who has announced his intentions to use law enforcement and the Army to crush enemies and control states. It's actually a pretty big story. Now to Sadie Plasma in Concord, "Mary Louise, I'm talking to a voter who is unhappy with both choices this year..." Exciting, enlightening man on the street commentary ensues.

3. Review your work. Have a meeting in the conference room. Provide donuts and fancy coffee. "What did we cover that was essential to the story of how this election could affect the republic? Did we actually report anything that resembled news? How many times did we rehash the same tired shit over and over? Are we journalists or lazy fuckwads who wouldn't know a watershed moment in history if it kicked us in the dick then ate one of our legs?

American TV "journalism" is such a part of the problem. Atlantic published a great issue about What If Trump Wins? Many digestible stories of what is at stake from from how the government will become a Trump tool to the denial of history. 

I don't like living in an argument proof society. I hate living in a society where naked truth is either ignored or gussied up.

I find myself just a little frustrated, my friends.

Edited by RomaVicta
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YGIFS

YGIFS 19,449

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It's been working fool-proof with his base for the nearly a decade, why not keep going?  Nobody is turning any votes the other way at this point.  Best you can hope is a few million folks scattered across the right states pay just enough attention his ante'd up bullshit and think, "You know what?  Fuck it, I can't do this shit anymore...I'm staying home."  Rock the Vote all you want, Turn out the Blue, whatever the fuck.  Keep enough people shamed into staying home or having them die is the best and most efficient option at this point.  I know a buncha people who won't admit to it, but they'll sneak off and vote for him in secret.  But there's some states he needs where there's no other real races of note (no Senate Class I or Gov. race), so there's also people who supported him previously who may just say "fuck it.  i hate Biden but this fucking guy..."  Discourage voting any chance you can.  Especially if you live in Michigan.  

Also holy shit, 3.5g of mushrooms in one dose?   We now go live to WhatTheBuck hitting the peak trip:

 

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Horn Dogg

Horn Dogg 3,808

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12 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

It's been working fool-proof with his base for the nearly a decade, why not keep going?  Nobody is turning any votes the other way at this point.  Best you can hope is a few million folks scattered across the right states pay just enough attention his ante'd up bullshit and think, "You know what?  Fuck it, I can't do this shit anymore...I'm staying home."  Rock the Vote all you want, Turn out the Blue, whatever the fuck.  Keep enough people shamed into staying home or having them die is the best and most efficient option at this point.  I know a buncha people who won't admit to it, but they'll sneak off and vote for him in secret.  But there's some states he needs where there's no other real races of note (no Senate Class I or Gov. race), so there's also people who supported him previously who may just say "fuck it.  i hate Biden but this fucking guy..."  Discourage voting any chance you can.  Especially if you live in Michigan.  

Also holy shit, 3.5g of mushrooms in one dose?   We now go live to WhatTheBuck hitting the peak trip:

 

One thing nobody seems to be taking about - a decent amount of his idiotic old folk voter base has croaked since the 2020 election.  I don’t think they have been replaced with young maga voters either.

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19,449

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Unless they all happened to die in Six certain states, not enough of them died off since 2020.  It'll help but quashing his turnout is the only path forward.  Fuck whatever feel-good registration drives that'll cost your party time and money it doesn't have.

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4,614

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11 hours ago, Brisketexan said:


I am not exaggerating when I say that I will be celebrating in public like it was a combination of VE Day, VJ Day, the Longhorns winning a national title, and I’ve got Sela Ward on one arm and Susanna Hoffs on the other, and my wife is congratulating me and telling me how she’s gonna join in.
Correction…I’ll be celebrating 10X more than if all that happened.

What a pathetic list. I thought you said you were gonna celebrate, but not a single mention of launching an actual Saturn V rocket while ingesting meth ludes X up your butt while singing To Those About to Rock and performing the cannon parts with actual cannons. Among many other glaring omissions in your list. I’m embarrassed FOR you.

You misspelled “year.”

VD Day.  Victory, over Donald.  A man who acts like a human Venereal Disease.

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4,614

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43% in NH for Haley is not enough to really change the odds on the ultimate outcome, but it is enough for her to continue on to SC.  If she doesn’t win SC she has no real reason to continue but if it’s within 5 points she should probably go on thru Super Tuesday.

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16,592

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8 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

What was the 2016 total? This only has 92% reported

image.png.bbac488abf153c6c0a407474ff5d5601.png

287k in 2016, but with a couple of caveats.  In that year, indies could vote either way, and dems had a real primary going.  If the majority of indies voted in the Republican primary this year, that skews the data in a big way.  If even 20% of Haley votes are in fact false positives that would trend the number down at least 25k.  There is a good chance that the 20% number I used is conservative.  If it's 40%, it's 50k of false positive, which would also mean a general under performance of about 10 to 15% comparatively.  

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RomaVicta

RomaVicta 29,794

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15 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

43% in NH for Haley is not enough to really change the odds on the ultimate outcome, but it is enough for her to continue on to SC.  If she doesn’t win SC she has no real reason to continue but if it’s within 5 points she should probably go on thru Super Tuesday.

Pro-republic citizens should donate to her. It's not a horse race, and I don't care that she will lose to Trump. The far far bigger issue is wounding Trump. If she stays in and keeps pulling a third or more of the vote from Dictator Donald, she loosens his grip on some wavering GOPs. 

The goal is to keep this motherfucker out of office. Good for Haley for fighting.

The fucking template analysis of what should happen after a loss in NH based on history is totally irrelevant to the future of the republic. She has every reason to keep running to help keep Trump out of office. If this is the reason that she has decided to stick, then she is another GOP acting in the best interests of the country. Like Pence, it would be a shining moment in a largely despicable political career.

 

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16,592

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2 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

Pro-republic citizens should donate to her. It's not a horse race, and I don't care that she will lose to Trump. The far far bigger issue is wounding Trump. If she stays in and keeps pulling a third or more of the vote from Dictator Donald, she loosens his grip on some wavering GOPs. 

The goal is to keep this motherfucker out of office. Good for Haley for fighting.

The fucking template analysis of what should happen after a loss in NH based on history is totally irrelevant to the future of the republic. She has every reason to keep running to help keep Trump out of office. If this is the reason that she has decided to stick, then she is another GOP acting in the best interests of the country. Like Pence, it would be a shining moment in a largely despicable political career.

 

We are going to find out in a month in South Carolina, my guess is she gets about 35% there.  

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CooterBrown

CooterBrown 17,913

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I hope Trump gets the nomination with no hiccups. There needs to be no life breathed into the dying GOP corpse. He’s the final nail in the coffin.

Biden just needs a pulse to beat Trump. I just hope he lives long enough to do so.

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Steamboat1874

Steamboat1874 4,032

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59 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

287k in 2016, but with a couple of caveats.  In that year, indies could vote either way, and dems had a real primary going.  If the majority of indies voted in the Republican primary this year, that skews the data in a big way.  If even 20% of Haley votes are in fact false positives that would trend the number down at least 25k.  There is a good chance that the 20% number I used is conservative.  If it's 40%, it's 50k of false positive, which would also mean a general under performance of about 10 to 15% comparatively.  

spacer.png

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Goredho

Goredho 17,349

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13 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

in west hollywood, you could actually hear the moment biden won the election. 

i have a feeling his death will be similar.

He will be less dangerous, but possibly more annoying, after death.  I mean, some evangelicals will kick the holy spirit right out of the trinity and replace it with Trump.  Texas is going to name every new highway after him. He's gonna be a living martyr to a lot of gaping assholes.  Like a degenerate, narcissistic Obi Wan Kenobi.  And eventually, someone more intelligent and capable than him will see his political career as a playbook to learn from and improve upon.

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Born to Run

Born to Run 6,568

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One thing nobody seems to be taking about - a decent amount of his idiotic old folk voter base has croaked since the 2020 election.  I don’t think they have been replaced with young maga voters either.
This tired trope irritates me. New Magas turn 18 every day. Blue collar folks, rural folks, children of fundies.
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chainsaw

chainsaw 9,838

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6 minutes ago, Born to Run said:
1 hour ago, Horn Dogg said:
One thing nobody seems to be taking about - a decent amount of his idiotic old folk voter base has croaked since the 2020 election.  I don’t think they have been replaced with young maga voters either.

This tired trope irritates me. New Magas turn 18 every day. Blue collar folks, rural folks, children of fundies.

They exist, but they aren't coming in fast enough to substitute for all the olds, and they definitely don't vote as reliably as the dead olds did.

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