2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[bolverk 29036]

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

Oh good lord, some of you are old. It’s not that hard to find someone on social media via a dating profile. 

When I first got on a dating app several years ago, I could find the social media accounts of prospective dates about half of the time before even meeting them on a first date just by exchanging a few messages. Getting a first name and hometown and knowing how to reverse image search was all you'd typically need.

Of course, people were more active on FB back then, so it was likely easier than today. I'm not in that game anymore though.

[tokamak 6323]

Do y'all consider NC to be fool's gold for Democrats, at least in 2024?

I had NC, PA, MI, WI, GA, AZ, and NV as the 7 states that matter. @Dnaguy made a list in the Trump thread and excluded NC. Its 2020 margin was smaller than MI and NV, about the same as PA. Figured this is a better thread for discussion.

[Js1 82949]

3 minutes ago, tokamak said:

Do y'all consider NC to be fool's gold for Democrats, at least in 2024?

I had NC, PA, MI, WI, GA, AZ, and NV as the 7 states that matter. @Dnaguy made a list in the Trump thread and excluded NC. Its 2020 margin was smaller than MI and NV, about the same as PA. Figured this is a better thread for discussion.

NC is to Dems what NV is to the GOP - a white whale.

Biden will make the play there, if only to stretch Trump thin having to defend NC, and it has a very contentious Governor race (and AG). 

It's the most likely of the Trump states to flip.  But it's been difficult to get over the hump. 

[The Original Greaser Bob 2685]

7 hours ago, Mole said:

To be fair, Elmo took over the show in a way that contributed to the decline of the show’s quality; and he is whiny, even by muppet standards.  On the other hand, my son loved the Elmo’s World segment and Mr. Noodle and his brother and sister was pretty good physical comedy.

I gotta disagree.  I originally didn't like him, but if you listened to him he was a rapscallion, and I think he'd fuck someone up if he got the chance.

[956 Worldwide 33988]

Who TF doesn’t lock down their social media, dating platform or no? All you get from mine is name and profile photo unless I want to be connected to you, are there still grownups blasting shit into the void out there? 

[Voldemort86 2236]

1 hour ago, tokamak said:

Do y'all consider NC to be fool's gold for Democrats, at least in 2024?

I had NC, PA, MI, WI, GA, AZ, and NV as the 7 states that matter. @Dnaguy made a list in the Trump thread and excluded NC. Its 2020 margin was smaller than MI and NV, about the same as PA. Figured this is a better thread for discussion.

Obama did really well there in hindsight. Outright winning NC against McCain and coming really close against Romney. Cal Cunningham was going to win there and really help the dems in the senate, but he just couldn’t keep his pants on. 
 

It sucks that Roy Cooper has no power there as governor. Maybe they can convince him to run for senate in NC?  Although some prior dem governors haven’t had the success they hoped when they ran for senate afterwards like Bredesen and Bullock so it’s no guarantee.

i’m always hopeful or optimistic when I look at the voter numbers in NC before the election, but on Election Day it’s always a loss for team blue it seems like.

florida and North Carolina really know how to disappoint or elude the democrats.

Edited February 1 by Voldemort86

[bolverk 29036]

1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Who TF doesn’t lock down their social media, dating platform or no? All you get from mine is name and profile photo unless I want to be connected to you, are there still grownups blasting shit into the void out there? 

I think most have wisened up by now, which is unfortunate since it's made the APD photo database thread much less enjoyable.

[Goredho 17164]

On 1/25/2024 at 2:51 PM, Superhero said:

The turtle is the enemy of my enemy. It's a god damn Game of Thrones arc in DC.

As long as they all die a fiery death in the end, I'm good with it.

No, in the end, the cripple gets to rule.  Get ready for President Abbott.

I want there to be debates, and I think there will be if Trump is in a position of losing on points and needing a puncher’s chance.  If Trump avoids debating, Biden should hire a Trump impersonator to debate.  Have the impersonator recite direct quotes from Trump and then rebut.  That will get Trump to the next debate pronto.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11511]

I suspected that the anti-anti-TSwift was disproportionate and maybe only a dozen loud Rs said something about her and no one else cases.
 

I had lunch in the Woodlands yesterday with some oil guys and one note of politics came up — Tay Tays effect on the election.  

[hookem2010 2533]

Turns out the silent majority is neither of those things.

[YChang 3392]

9 hours ago, Goredho said:

 Have the impersonator recite direct quotes from Trump and then rebut.  That will get Trump to the next debate pronto.

This could be a really fun and entertaining idea.

[gmr548 16289]

On 2/1/2024 at 3:07 PM, tokamak said:

Do y'all consider NC to be fool's gold for Democrats, at least in 2024?

I had NC, PA, MI, WI, GA, AZ, and NV as the 7 states that matter. @Dnaguy made a list in the Trump thread and excluded NC. Its 2020 margin was smaller than MI and NV, about the same as PA. Figured this is a better thread for discussion.

I actually don't. I acknowledge that what @Js1 said about Democrats' track record there is true to a degree but it's less extreme than NV. Cal Cunningham is a Senator right now if he doesn't have an extramarital affair. They have a popular, two-term Democratic governor who will be actively campaigning for his replacement. The state has been a consistent national leader in terms of in-migration, much of it from the NE and its growth industries are bringing in highly educated workers.

I don't think it's a sure thing to flip by any means but it's on the table and it's very important to the GOP in a close election. If Democrats win NC they are also winning GA, if that happens the GOP could feasibly win WI-MI-PA and still lose the election if Democrats hold NV and AZ in the southwest. There just aren't a lot of reasonable GOP paths to victory without NC. For that reason alone you make the investment.

[tokamak 6323]

55 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I don't think it's a sure thing to flip by any means but it's on the table and it's very important to the GOP in a close election. If Democrats win NC they are also winning GA, if that happens the GOP could feasibly win WI-MI-PA and still lose the election if Democrats hold NV and AZ in the southwest. There just aren't a lot of reasonable GOP paths to victory without NC. For that reason alone you make the investment.

I thought about it a little more after I posted and came to this same conclusion. If Biden wins NC, he's almost certainly already won the election. Trump has to have NC.

[YGIFS 19445]

Because you can’t spell “Ivanka’s Cunt” without UNC?

[Brisketexan 103515]

7 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

Because you can’t spell “Ivanka’s Cunt” without UNC?

And you can't get to it without going through one of Donald's hands.

[tx 3 putt 75234]

 

[Biff Tannen 45013]

On 2/1/2024 at 8:49 AM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

• Biden has a 50-44 national lead over Trump.
• But it has Haley over Biden with a 47-42.

I really can’t square this. I see it with a “centrist” friend of mine as well. What is there to hate about Biden at this point?  He’s been an objectively good president to this point. Why would people want to switch to not only Haley, but a Republican?  What is the one real knock on Biden?  He’s old?  Oh the horror. 
 

Someone give me a serious answer that doesn’t involve the phrase “people want to vote for Republicans because their brains don’t work”. Cause that’s all I got. 

[pacman 7229]

 

 

 

[Voldemort86 2236]

BUT BUT ITS INTERFERING WITH THE MAGA NARRATIVE AND THEIR ATTEMPT TO OWN THE LIBS.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/02/trump-and-his-allies-adjust-their-messaging-on-the-economy-as-it-steadily-improves-00139447

[Js1 82949]

9 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

I really can’t square this. I see it with a “centrist” friend of mine as well. What is there to hate about Biden at this point?  He’s been an objectively good president to this point. Why would people want to switch to not only Haley, but a Republican?  What is the one real knock on Biden?  He’s old?  Oh the horror. 
 

Someone give me a serious answer that doesn’t involve the phrase “people want to vote for Republicans because their brains don’t work”. Cause that’s all I got. 

He’s old

They think the economy is bad bc Fox News tells them so 

The border

Israel/Gaza (this is mostly truly online people who probably won’t vote and somehow think a Republican would be better at not being a genocidal puppet of Bibi’s?)

[Brisketexan 103515]

He’s old
They think the economy is bad bc Fox News tells them so 
The border
Israel/Gaza (this is mostly truly online people who probably won’t vote and somehow think a Republican would be better at not being a genocidal puppet of Bibi’s?)

Yeah, that last bit is one I don’t get. Trump made it a huge point to be all super I love Israel and Bibi and am moving the embassy to Jerusalem…and they think he’d make things BETTER for Gaza?

[Foosters 17637]

Does someone have that list of all accomplishments under Biden + legislation passed? Feel like it's going to come in handy over the next few months with some people I know.

[Biff Tannen 45013]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

He’s old

They think the economy is bad bc Fox News tells them so 

The border

Israel/Gaza (this is mostly truly online people who probably won’t vote and somehow think a Republican would be better at not being a genocidal puppet of Bibi’s?)

The first one is the only true one and I’m not convinced it’s actually hurting his ability to do the job. 

[Exposition 92]

21 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah, that last bit is one I don’t get. Trump made it a huge point to be all super I love Israel and Bibi and am moving the embassy to Jerusalem…and they think he’d make things BETTER for Gaza?

Saw an NBC Nightly News segment this week interviewing a suburban Detroit Arab American voter. Said she would not vote for Trump either, but instead write-in "Free Gaza".

[Biff Tannen 45013]

10 minutes ago, Exposition said:

Saw an NBC Nightly News segment this week interviewing a suburban Detroit Arab American voter. Said she would not vote for Trump either, but instead write-in "Free Gaza".

That'll show em.

[YGIFS 19445]

Free Gasha?  I'm in!  Oh, sorry.  Free Gaza.  Yeah, that's gonna be a hard no from me, my friend.

I'll just continue to berate this point to any of myriad tired Republicans I know in Texas.  I helped bundle money for Biden in 2020 to simply rid our nation of Trumpian Cancer.  I didn't like it, but Biden was the best chance at tumor removal we had the time.  He still is, but I'm not as enthusiastic about this time around.  But I'll pull more than my weight to make sure Trump is defeated and then dies as a result of the humiliation.  I like Joe Biden.  He's a standup guy.  But he's fucking old as shit.  But I give him bonus points for three things, one of which even you ardent Lefties don't give him credit for enough.  He inherited a shitshow and does pretty good with it.  Not great, but pretty damn good.  He's not Donald Trump, which I think we can all acknowledge is really not that hard to do, but worth noting.  But while he's old and sliding downward---here's what we need to recognize about him and y'all hardcore Democrats need to figure out how to message this better:

-What's one of the most laughable tropes about Trump?  That he blew through cabinet members and appointees and lawyers and diplomats and general officers like nobody's business, right?  We have numerous threads and memes about how Trump claimed to surround himself with the best people, then they either resigned or he shitcanned them or didn't pay them and they left, right?  And then he would go on to claim they were losers, that he barely knew them, or they sucked at their job?  Right?  There are dozens upon dozens of examples, perhaps hundreds.  And the one fantastic attribute of Joe Biden I admire most of all?  He has done his level best to surround himself with the absolute best and brightest and let then do their thing.  Obviously, a mechanism of that size is gonna have a few bumps in the road, but Biden put incredibly smart and motivated people in charge of some real serious shit and they have delivered time and time again and Joe doesn't overly praise them or throw them under the bus.  He just steers the ship and let's the smart people do smart shit, which is the absolute paramount duty of a strong leader

This is the most underscored quality of Biden v. Trump and none of your party is talking about it.  Biden is doing a fine job, but his team is doing fucking phenomenal.  Contrast that to Trump's team who is either awaiting trial or fucking hates him.  Joe and your team needs to broadcast what a brilliant job they are doing in aggregate.  I get that doing so may look like Joe isn't up to the task and needs propping up by these folks.  But to me, it's worth the risk because Trump literally claims daily to either not know most of his inner circle or that he knows  them and   are incompetent---which speaks volumes about him...and not in a good way.  I'm sure they've workshopped this in Joe's inner circle, but it's a completely missed opportunity IMHO.  Joe designated some serious shit to some designated badasses.  And that, to me as a person of leadership, is what a leader does and nothing wrong with casually pointing that out to the Stupids.  Your guy is so strong and so smart?  Why the fuck can't he retain anybody for more than 20 minutes ? 

Edited February 3 by YGIFS

[gmr548 16289]

1 hour ago, Foosters said:

Does someone have that list of all accomplishments under Biden + legislation passed? Feel like it's going to come in handy over the next few months with some people I know.

The headline/summary would be, in no particular order:

COVID Vaccine Rollout - varied by state and to be fair you have to give the Trump admin credit for development and plans being laid out; but available to anyone who wanted one, on demand, for free, by mid-2021.

ARPA - $1.9 trillion COVID stimulus/domestic investment (local governments, housing, transportation, education, etc) package. Probably juiced inflation to a degree but we would be in a much worse longer term economic situation.

CHIPS Act - $280 billion investment in onshoring semiconductor R&D and manufacturing. Huge returns so far in producing business investments that will translate to quality jobs, strengthen supply chains, and materially improve national security.

Infrastructure Bill - $550 billion of investment over a decade, largest infrastructure investment in generations.

IRA - $900 billion; at the end of the day the name is pandering and this is primarily an energy/climate law. It has spurred unprecedented investment in the energy transition. This could end up being by far the most impactful product of this administration but also the hardest to evaluate in the moment. Impact on inflation is likely negligible but it is projected to reduce the deficit, potentially by a significant amount.

PACT Act - $800 billion investment in healthcare and services for veterans exposed to toxic materials. This was the bill the Senate GOP had to be shamed to pass, think the Jon Stewart campaign around burn pits and all that.

Ukraine - Uniting NATO, adding Finland and now Sweden; and weakening and embarrassing Russia with zero involvement from American personnel.

And most recently came to the table on a border compromise, which frankly I as a progressive think is a bad deal, but exposed the Republicans for the sick, cynical fucks they are.

 

 

[Snake Diggity 4548]

59 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

The headline/summary would be, in no particular order:

COVID Vaccine Rollout - varied by state and to be fair you have to give the Trump admin credit for development and plans being laid out; but available to anyone who wanted one, on demand, for free, by mid-2021.

ARPA - $1.9 trillion COVID stimulus/domestic investment (local governments, housing, transportation, education, etc) package. Probably juiced inflation to a degree but we would be in a much worse longer term economic situation.

CHIPS Act - $280 billion investment in onshoring semiconductor R&D and manufacturing. Huge returns so far in producing business investments that will translate to quality jobs, strengthen supply chains, and materially improve national security.

Infrastructure Bill - $550 billion of investment over a decade, largest infrastructure investment in generations.

IRA - $900 billion; at the end of the day the name is pandering and this is primarily an energy/climate law. It has spurred unprecedented investment in the energy transition. This could end up being by far the most impactful product of this administration but also the hardest to evaluate in the moment. Impact on inflation is likely negligible but it is projected to reduce the deficit, potentially by a significant amount.

PACT Act - $800 billion investment in healthcare and services for veterans exposed to toxic materials. This was the bill the Senate GOP had to be shamed to pass, think the Jon Stewart campaign around burn pits and all that.

Ukraine - Uniting NATO, adding Finland and now Sweden; and weakening and embarrassing Russia with zero involvement from American personnel.

And most recently came to the table on a border compromise, which frankly I as a progressive think is a bad deal, but exposed the Republicans for the sick, cynical fucks they are.

 

 

The CHIPS Act and the infrastructure bill sure seems like some of the best money the US Govt will ever spend.  The IRA and PACT seem like they’re too big, but needed to be done.  ARPA seems like it was big mistake that exacerbated inflation and paid a lot of the wrong people.  Still, overall that’s a very good resume for old Joe.

[BamaATL 16009]

2 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

The CHIPS Act and the infrastructure bill sure seems like some of the best money the US Govt will ever spend.  The IRA and PACT seem like they’re too big, but needed to be done.  ARPA seems like it was big mistake that exacerbated inflation and paid a lot of the wrong people.  Still, overall that’s a very good resume for old Joe.

My wife is in the PACT act due to exposure to burn pits in Iraq, so I'm admittedly biased.  That having been said, I think the expense of the PACT is also due to being tied in to VA modernization as well as care for those exposed (I can assure you that VA modernization is necessary).  Additionally, when you consider that there are 18.3 million Veterans, in healthcare cost terms, I'm doubting it's enough.  I get the gargantuan number seeming to be, well gargantuan, but when you think about it in those terms maybe that changes things.    

Overall though, I think Biden has been a very effective President, especially when one considers the shit show he inherited from the previous administration.  

[Js1 82949]

Don’t let the media tell you Biden has a problem with black voters

Meanwhile, both Williamson and Phillips are below 2% in SC lol. Dean Phillips tanked his entire career in the Dem party with this run. 

[tokamak 6323]

9 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Don’t let the media tell you Biden has a problem with black voters

Meanwhile, both Williamson and Phillips are below 2% in SC lol. Dean Phillips tanked his entire career in the Dem party with this run. 

Is he just going to do a Tulsi Gabbard and grift?

[BamaATL 16009]

12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Don’t let the media tell you Biden has a problem with black voters

Meanwhile, both Williamson and Phillips are below 2% in SC lol. Dean Phillips tanked his entire career in the Dem party with this run. 

I was looking at the previous numbers, and it is down, looks like turn out will be somewhere between 150k to 175k tonight.  Down from near 500k in 2020.  Absolutely different circumstance though.  Biden getting incumbency percentages is about you can draw from this.  For reference, 2016 had a turnout of 340k, but again different situation.  

[Neonmoon 38126]

2 hours ago, gmr548 said:

CHIPS Act - $280 billion investment in onshoring semiconductor R&D and manufacturing. Huge returns so far in producing business investments that will translate to quality jobs, strengthen supply chains, and materially improve national security.

Infrastructure Bill - $550 billion of investment over a decade, largest infrastructure investment in generations.

Ukraine - Uniting NATO, adding Finland and now Sweden; and weakening and embarrassing Russia with zero involvement from American personnel.

These will be paying dividends for decades 

[Js1 82949]

24 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I was looking at the previous numbers, and it is down, looks like turn out will be somewhere between 150k to 175k tonight.  Down from near 500k in 2020.  Absolutely different circumstance though.  Biden getting incumbency percentages is about you can draw from this.  For reference, 2016 had a turnout of 340k, but again different situation.  

Yep, this was not a real primary contest. 

[BamaATL 16009]

8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yep, this was not a real primary contest. 

The other thing is, beyond it being a pretty clear cut incumbent campaign, is that it's the first time the South Carolina primary has been this far forward for the Democrats.   In the past, that hasn't been the case, and I do wonder if that played into turn out, at least to some small degree.   If this were an actual battleground sort of thing I'm sure that might not have mattered as much, but given that it isn't, I have to think that made at least a small difference in turn out.  

[Neonmoon 38126]

Polling seems spot on these days. Looks like all undecided broke for Biden

[Ghost of LL 15244]

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

The other thing is, beyond it being a pretty clear cut incumbent campaign, is that it's the first time the South Carolina primary has been this far forward for the Democrats.   In the past, that hasn't been the case, and I do wonder if that played into turn out, at least to some small degree.   If this were an actual battleground sort of thing I'm sure that might not have mattered as much, but given that it isn't, I have to think that made at least a small difference in turn out.  

There was also a lot of fuckery with polling locations. So much so that Jamie Harrison-you know, the chairman of the fucking DNC—showed up to the wrong place for an event because the polling place had been moved several miles away.  

And in a non-event primary, that kind of fuckery is going to have a real impact on turnout.  I mean, if I show up to my polling place and it’s been lived five miles away, am I really going to try to try it down on a Saturday to cast a purely symbolic vote? 

[gmr548 16289]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Don’t let the media tell you Biden has a problem with black voters

Meanwhile, both Williamson and Phillips are below 2% in SC lol. Dean Phillips tanked his entire career in the Dem party with this run. 

Biden doesn't have a problem with black voters; he has a problem with low info voters, black and otherwise.

[gmr548 16289]

3 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

The CHIPS Act and the infrastructure bill sure seems like some of the best money the US Govt will ever spend.  The IRA and PACT seem like they’re too big, but needed to be done.  ARPA seems like it was big mistake that exacerbated inflation and paid a lot of the wrong people.  Still, overall that’s a very good resume for old Joe.

If the IRA pans out and actually reduces US GHG emissions by 40% by 2030 it's the most cost effective legislation in the history of the nation. 

[DaysOff 7682]

I really can’t square this. I see it with a “centrist” friend of mine as well. What is there to hate about Biden at this point?  He’s been an objectively good president to this point. Why would people want to switch to not only Haley, but a Republican?  What is the one real knock on Biden?  He’s old?  Oh the horror. 
 
Someone give me a serious answer that doesn’t involve the phrase “people want to vote for Republicans because their brains don’t work”. Cause that’s all I got. 

Joe has exceeded my expectations of him, but he's old and boring. He puts his head down and goes to work. 44 years ago we elected an actor, and ever since then, the electorate wants to be entertained.

[dieucla98 2767]

I like Friends. Give me old and boring.

[TeeDubya 3321]

1 hour ago, DaysOff said:

Joe has exceeded my expectations of him, but he's old and boring. He puts his head down and goes to work. 44 years ago we elected an actor, and ever since then, the electorate wants to be entertained.

This.

We totally want to be entertained.  In everything.  In things that should not be entertainment.  Politics?  Who gets the biggest mic drop?  oooooh yeah.....

[South Austin 51564]

1 hour ago, DaysOff said:

44 years ago we elected an actor, and ever since then, the electorate wants to be entertained.

How does this explain George H. Bush?

[DaysOff 7682]

He rode Ronny's coattails. He's the one outlier who's also boring and got kicked to the curb after one term.

[Neonmoon 38126]

1 minute ago, South Austin said:

How does this explain George H. Bush?

Dana Carvey was entertaining?

 

[Underdog 28118]

The only political entertainment I want is an AOC sex tape, I’m sure I’m not alone in that. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13295]

13 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Ukraine - Uniting NATO, adding Finland and now Sweden; and weakening and embarrassing Russia with zero involvement from American personnel.

Great list and if I can add to the Ukraine point. Some complain that we shouldn’t be sending billions to Ukraine while we have a border crisis. False argument. We can do both if wanted. But also it’s not like we send billions to Ukraine and they buy Chinese military supplies. Those billions are coming right back to American military companies and workers. Ukraine aid is also a stimulus check for workers in 38+ states.

and the most important part, not 1 American soldier has died.

[Snake Diggity 4548]

32 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Great list and if I can add to the Ukraine point. Some complain that we shouldn’t be sending billions to Ukraine while we have a border crisis. False argument. We can do both if wanted. But also it’s not like we send billions to Ukraine and they buy Chinese military supplies. Those billions are coming right back to American military companies and workers. Ukraine aid is also a stimulus check for workers in 38+ states.

and the most important part, not 1 American soldier has died.

Has the US ever gotten the economic benefits of the war machine without risking American soldiers’ lives?  Everybody wins. (Except the Russians and Ukrainians.)

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11511]

Just now, Snake Diggity said:

Has the US ever gotten the economic benefits of the war machine without risking American soldiers’ lives?  Everybody wins. (Except the Russians and Ukrainians.)

The entire Cold War?

[David Dennison 17754]

21 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

The entire Cold War?

Vietnam notwithstanding.