2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[YGIFS 19,449]

I don't know if that's one of the most fucked-up things I've ever heard.  Or one of the most Florida things I've ever heard.  I've been to some bizarre funerals with some weird folks, but I've never once heard anybody go on a political rant during a eulogy.  I mean, y'all gotta put up with my rants on here but it would never in a million years occur to me to even think about bringing that up at a Wake.  When my uncle died, my cousin (his son) made a quick mention about a person of political note saying my uncle had a wonderful light about him and we all smiled and laughed a bit.  But that was about it.  

During my eulogy for my father, it wouldn't have even occurred to me to bring up politics and he had lived in Florida for a good number of years and had very stern political viewpoints.  My biggest goal was to just not break down and weep uncontrollably (which I did).  If I had for some bizarre reason, brought up politics, I'm 90% sure he could have come back to life and got outta the casket to slap me around.  And rightfully so.

Seriously though, jokes aside---what the fuck with Florida?  Like we need to lure them into the upper 49 for a "dinner party" and just have an intervention at this point.  

[BamaATL 16,593]

9 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

They aren't the only ones. We attended a relative's funeral in south Florida and during the eulogy were "treated" with an unexpected political treatise by a non family member that covered all the talking points and then some. My spouse was fuming but kept his silence. I was rather stunned at why anyone would interject MAGA and politics into a remembrance of a life that was lived with a focus that was outside of the political realm. But Florida be like that I guess.

I feel your pain, when my grandfather died in 2019, his brother in law (I suppose my Great Uncle in law, I barely know him), delivered a eulogy that included references to Hitler and Stalin, getting into heaven and more fun.  It then meandered into, you guessed it, Maga talking points.  My Great Uncle in law is a retired renowned pediatrician.  

Simply stunning.  

[cactusflinthead 27,598]

 

[Voldemort86 2,259]

3 hours ago, YGIFS said:

True, but Cubans don't have large families in Florida.  We forget that Florida voted Blue just as recently as 2008 & 2012.  And even 2016 was within just 1%.  I don't know that Taylor can make that big a difference but this new notion is just this forgone conclusion is weird to me.  Yes DeSantis have a markedly puzzling victory margin of note in 2022 and 2020 federal elections weren't competitive.  But it's because old people vote and Florida prides itself now on being even more stupid than ever.  I wouldn't count on it in 2024 for Biden, but I think it swings back to being uber-competitive  after that.  What neither party understands is the whole key to Florida in federal elections (Senate & POTUS in particular) is the Tampa/Clearwater/Saint Pete metroplex.  Every single Floridian political jockey I know fights tooth and nail for that area but the state party and national party just ignore it for some reason.  Every other spot is pretty much locked in their position (Jacksonville, Panhandle, Miami-FTL-Palm Beach, Fort Myers-Naples, Orlando-CenFla, et. al.).  Anyway, here's to hoping the DNC doesn't piss too much away in 2024 and focuses on other states 'cause I don't think it's that competitive right now but it will be again soon as it was for decades prior.  We just forget our history.    

Wish I could agree with this, but look at miami dade / broward county and that part of Florida in 2016 compared to now. They might have actually flipped it red. It’s sucks, but I think we need to focus more on making Arizona, georgia, and Wisconsin as blue as we can.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

2 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

My Gen Z nieces hate Trump and can’t talk about him without having a “someone just farted” look on their faces.

[hookem2010 2,624]

Hearing these interviews on NPR of "centrist" voters who are unexcited and undecided about either candidate makes me want to smash my face repeatedly into the steering wheel.

I'm not excited to put my car in park at a cliff overlook, but when the alternative is to fly over the edge to a fiery death, the decision is pretty easy.

[4th&Five 41,521]

It’s hard for me to believe they just happen upon those types. They’re actively looking for idiots. 

[Js1 85,300]

23 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

Hearing these interviews on NPR of "centrist" voters who are unexcited and undecided about either candidate makes me want to smash my face repeatedly into the steering wheel.

 

This happened in 2020 too....

They voted overwhelmingly for Biden.  In 2016, they were for Trump. 

[South Austin 52,460]

25 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

Hearing these interviews on NPR of "centrist" voters who are unexcited and undecided about either candidate makes me want to smash my face repeatedly into the steering wheel.

I'm not excited to put my car in park at a cliff overlook, but when the alternative is to fly over the edge to a fiery death, the decision is pretty easy.

Yes, well put.  I listen to those same interviews, and agree completely that the best Presidential nomination either party can muster since 2016 has been frustratingly shitty.  But the possibility of Donald fucking Trump being President again isn't enough for you?

[GopherRock 1,765]

8 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

My Gen Z nieces hate Trump and can’t talk about him without having a “someone just farted” look on their faces.

 

11 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

Considering the thumb-up-ass response from the GOP after the Parkland shooting, Gen Z breaking hard blue should come as a shock to no one. Getting them to the polls is another matter.

Speaking of which, has it really been six fucking years already?

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

if FL goes blue, its because it is nation-wide thing and the election would have been over long before that.  the demographics of olds, cubans, and confederates just doesn't play any more.  a blue FL probably doesn't come before a blue OH and NC. 

[StassneyHorn 6,575]

Miami/Florida had to deal with higher and longer inflation along with stupidly high homeowners insurance if they can even get it. There’s cracks

[South Austin 52,460]

4 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

a blue FL probably doesn't come before a blue OH and NC. 

Agreed.  Look at what happened last year in Ohio, passing a constitutional amendment protecting abortion rights.  If Ohioans still give a shit about the abortion issue, and Biden can play that up in another showdown against Trump, I can see Ohio going blue in November.  

[YGIFS 19,449]

1 minute ago, StassneyHorn said:

Miami/Florida had to deal with higher and longer inflation along with stupidly high homeowners insurance if they can even get it. There’s cracks

They're in an even more bizarre dissonance than most red states.  Their cost  of living is legit spiraling upward, outta control.  Yes, a little bit of our monetary policy but inflated mortgages, energy, and insurance is rough on them...particularly those drawing fixed incomes in old age.  But the weird kicker is they see those insurance premiums spiraling up or even cancelled because of weather.  But they feel climate change is a farce.  And if it is real, it must be being manipulated a man less senile than them in the Oval Office.  But yeah, South Florida won't flip for a good while (2032 at best).  Jacksonville and the Panhandle and most of Orlando metroplex may as well be Alabama.  I maintain the battleground to turn is the Tampa-Saint Pete-Clearwater-Bradenton-Sarasota-Fort Myers corridor.  It is growing more and more with college-educated folks.  Which spells doom for the GOP there.  But nobody puts any effort into it because of the glamour of campaigning/fundraising in those other areas I listed that for now, are just lost causes for Democrats.  

[Js1 85,300]

8 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Agreed.  Look at what happened last year in Ohio, passing a constitutional amendment protecting abortion rights.  If Ohioans still give a shit about the abortion issue, and Biden can play that up in another showdown against Trump, I can see Ohio going blue in November.  

It won’t 

[gmr548 16,576]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

This happened in 2020 too....

They voted overwhelmingly for Biden.  In 2016, they were for Trump. 

Democrats have consistently kept the "somewhat disapproves" in the fold when up against MAGA candidates under Biden. That's pretty atypical historically speaking but obviously so is the entire situation right now. Maintaining that against the final MAGA boss is going to be the key, and that includes the young voters being discussed because a lot of them fall in that bucket.

[SydneyCarton 48,070]

29 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Miami/Florida had to deal with higher and longer inflation along with stupidly high homeowners insurance if they can even get it. There’s cracks

These sound like issues to campaign on for a gubernatorial election, not a presidential one. They're all state policies. Inflation remained higher than the rest of the US? Well, that's clearly not becuase of some federal exception to Florida. 

[gmr548 16,576]

32 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Agreed.  Look at what happened last year in Ohio, passing a constitutional amendment protecting abortion rights.  If Ohioans still give a shit about the abortion issue, and Biden can play that up in another showdown against Trump, I can see Ohio going blue in November.  

I think it's 100% the other way around. Preservation of abortion rights takes the issue off the table and gives otherwise socially moderate Ohio voters that maybe would have considered crossing over carte blanche to vote their worst impulses (and they are pretty bad in that part of the country) on immigration without fear of an abortion ban.

Edited February 8 by gmr548

[gmr548 16,576]

44 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

if FL goes blue, its because it is nation-wide thing and the election would have been over long before that.  the demographics of olds, cubans, and confederates just doesn't play any more.  a blue FL probably doesn't come before a blue OH and NC. 

NC yes, OH no, but agree with the general sentiment. If the Democrats win FL they have already won NC, GA, AZ, and NV (which is game over already - they could lose WI-MI-PA and would still win). FL isn't going to tip the election for Democrats, it's the score to go up 17 with 2 minutes left.

[YGIFS 19,449]

19 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

NC yes, OH no, but agree with the general sentiment. If the Democrats win FL they have already won NC, GA, AZ, and NV (which is game over already - they could lose WI-MI-PA and would still win). FL isn't going to tip the election for Democrats, it's the score to go up 17 with 2 minutes left.

Yeah, the trouble with Ohio is the educated and the youngers are moving out.  It's still experiencing growth but because of children of non-college in suburbs/exurbs/rurals.  The college and/or youngin's that would go blue are leaving that shithole.  North Carolina is the opposite, college/youngers are coming in and/or staying.  Rurals and non-colleges are dying off/not voting.  North Carolina is a fascinating political case-study that I'm too lazy to breakdown but I think while we spend a lot of time hand-wringing about Arizona, Georgia, Florida, and the Rust Belt/Upper-Midwest, Virginia and North Carolina are going to play out a much more telling and robust predictor of things in the next decade or so.  

[Js1 85,300]

Oh yeah, OH has a major brain drain going on. It’s not winnable for Dems without a massive re-realignment of WWC voters. 

Edited February 8 by Js1

[YGIFS 19,449]

The Puerto Rican Wrestling league is effecting voters in Dayton?  Hang on, I can get a screenplay hammered out with Gandorf by Sunday.

[bolverk 29,659]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

I think it's 100% the other way around. Preservation of abortion rights takes the issue off the table and gives otherwise socially moderate Ohio voters that maybe would have considered crossing over carte blanche to vote their worst impulses (and they are pretty bad in that part of the country) on immigration without fear of an abortion ban.

Not if there's a threat of a federal ban on abortion, which would be my argument against a Trump presidency if I were running a campaign in Ohio.

[South Austin 52,460]

40 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Not if there's a threat of a federal ban on abortion, which would be my argument against a Trump presidency if I were running a campaign in Ohio.

Yep.  Some Republicans are perfectly happy with Dobbs and want their party to shut the fuck up on abortion.  But so many others just can't help themselves and will campaign on federalizing abortion restrictions like we see in Texas and other red states.  It's not just Trump, but all those other MAGAs as well, and Biden's campaign needs to keep this front and center.

Edited February 8 by South Austin

[Js1 85,300]

2 hours ago, gmr548 said:

I think it's 100% the other way around. Preservation of abortion rights takes the issue off the table and gives otherwise socially moderate Ohio voters that maybe would have considered crossing over carte blanche to vote their worst impulses (and they are pretty bad in that part of the country) on immigration without fear of an abortion ban.

We saw a very similar phenomenon in 2022. States that felt their abortion rights were safe didn’t turn out or felt okay voting Republican because Dobbs didn’t affect them because their state law already protected abortion

But it’s very important to blast ads about federal abortion bans if the GOP wins a trifecta 

[Snake Diggity 4,620]

3 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

if FL goes blue, its because it is nation-wide thing and the election would have been over long before that.  the demographics of olds, cubans, and confederates just doesn't play any more.  a blue FL probably doesn't come before a blue OH and NC. 

Predicted Order of states flipping blue (compared to 2020 presidential): North Carolina, …(long gap)…Ohio, Montana, South Carolina, …(long gap)…Texas, Florida, Iowa

Edited February 8 by Snake Diggity

[Js1 85,300]

6 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Predicted Order of states flipping blue (compared to 2020 presidential): North Carolina, …(long gap)…Ohio, Montana, South Carolina, …(long gap)…Texas, Florida, Iowa

You’re forgetting Kansas. Johnson County is blowing up with educated workers 

Alaska also seems to be a state inching left bit by bit 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

Just now, Js1 said:

You’re forgetting Kansas. Johnson County is blowing up with educated workers 

Alaska also seems to be a state inching left bit by bit 

AK would be my favorite.  They've got the best R senator and they are true cowboys instead of the Dallas burbs that like to pretend like it.  They don't seem to be infected with the idiocy that the rest of the country is.

[bolverk 29,659]

12 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Predicted Order of states flipping blue (compared to 2020 presidential): North Carolina, …(long gap)…Ohio, Montana, South Carolina, …(long gap)…Texas, Florida, Iowa

2020 election results from closish "red" states for Biden in ranked order:

N.C.    48.59%
Florida    47.86%
Texas    46.48%
Ohio    45.24%

Edit: Of these, Trump didn't get a majority in NC. So, yeah, that's the most gettable one.

Edited February 8 by bolverk

[Js1 85,300]

1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

AK would be my favorite.  They've got the best R senator and they are true cowboys instead of the Dallas burbs that like to pretend like it.  They don't seem to be infected with the idiocy that the rest of the country is.

Peltola is also the most popular elected official in the state. Their independents are truly independents and not just “I don’t want to be labeled a Republican”

It’s always been a very intriguing state that could look very promising by 2032

[gmr548 16,576]

2 hours ago, YGIFS said:

Yeah, the trouble with Ohio is the educated and the youngers are moving out.  It's still experiencing growth but because of children of non-college in suburbs/exurbs/rurals.  The college and/or youngin's that would go blue are leaving that shithole.  North Carolina is the opposite, college/youngers are coming in and/or staying.  Rurals and non-colleges are dying off/not voting.  North Carolina is a fascinating political case-study that I'm too lazy to breakdown but I think while we spend a lot of time hand-wringing about Arizona, Georgia, Florida, and the Rust Belt/Upper-Midwest, Virginia and North Carolina are going to play out a much more telling and robust predictor of things in the next decade or so.  

The ongoing realignment of American electoral politics is extremely fascinating, until you remember what's at stake lol.

 

I agree with you on NC. It's been Lucy with the football for Dems in federal races many times for various reasons since Obama broke through, but Roy Cooper has won 2x, Democrats have won other competitive state level races, and you're right on the Demographics. It's not Florida level futile. I can definitely see it going the VA path where there is legacy Republican influence in the state government that is simply hard to root out, but becoming a steadily Democratic state federally.

[tokamak 6,395]

22 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Predicted Order of states flipping blue (compared to 2020 presidential): North Carolina, …(long gap)…Ohio, Montana, South Carolina, …(long gap)…Texas, Florida, Iowa

Interesting to me that you listed Montana. I haven't looked at the numbers, but I've been wondering if there could eventually be enough Californians moving to Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho to make them competitive one day. Basically the same thing that happened to Colorado. Not a ton of EVs there, but it would be nice if they weren't Senate locks for the GOP (yes, I know Jon Tester exists).

[Snake Diggity 4,620]

11 minutes ago, tokamak said:

Interesting to me that you listed Montana. I haven't looked at the numbers, but I've been wondering if there could eventually be enough Californians moving to Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho to make them competitive one day. Basically the same thing that happened to Colorado. Not a ton of EVs there, but it would be nice if they weren't Senate locks for the GOP (yes, I know Jon Tester exists).

I just feel like Montana is ripe for migration from the west coast to flip it within the next 15 years.  With so few people and as close as it already is, it wouldn’t take much.

[Snake Diggity 4,620]

Flip timeline broken down further:

Soon: NC

When the Boomers are mostly dead: OH, SC, MT

Within 25 years: IA, AK, TX, FL, IN, KY, WV, KS, MO, NE

Never: OK, AR, LA, TN, MS, AL, ID, UT, WY, SD, ND

 

Before that first large group flips there’s bound to be a major party shift of some kind that renders the prediction worthless.  But NC is in play this cycle and OH, SC, and MT could be real battlegrounds by 2032. (PS: I don’t know shit.)

Edited February 8 by Snake Diggity

[tokamak 6,395]

5 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Flip timeline broken down further:

Soon: NC

When the Boomers are mostly dead: OH, SC, MT

Within 25 years: IA, AK, TX, FL, IN, KY, WV, KS, MO, NE

Never: OK, AR, LA, TN, MS, AL, ID, UT, WY, SD, ND

 

Before that first large group flips there’s bound to be a major party shift of some kind that renders the prediction worthless.  But NC is in play this cycle and OH, SC, and MT could be real battlegrounds by 2032. (PS: I don’t know shit.)

I wouldn't count out TN at all. Feels like it could be the "next North Carolina" to me.

What do you think about the flip side of this question? WI, PA, and MI will probably continue to be a headache for Democrats. MN maybe joining them in becoming swing-y? NM if Latinos move right and young people leave the state?

[Js1 85,300]

1 minute ago, tokamak said:

I wouldn't count out TN at all. Feels like it could be the "next North Carolina" to me.

What do you think about the flip side of this question? WI, PA, and MI will probably continue to be a headache for Democrats. MN maybe joining them in becoming swing-y? NM if Latinos move right and young people leave the state?

WI will move right eventually.  I think Michigan and PA will be fine - continue to be swing states but they have a lot of advantages for Dems.  Not worried about MN or NM. 

[Snake Diggity 4,620]

16 minutes ago, tokamak said:

I wouldn't count out TN at all. Feels like it could be the "next North Carolina" to me.

What do you think about the flip side of this question? WI, PA, and MI will probably continue to be a headache for Democrats. MN maybe joining them in becoming swing-y? NM if Latinos move right and young people leave the state?

I would guess PA will be pretty safe, and I’m not all that worried about MI.  WI and even moreso MN I think will be swing states where Dems have a slight edge, so it’ll depend on the candidates and external factors.

[Js1 85,300]

Also I am very much not counting on TN changing at all.  Taylor Swift isn't going to change it by herself and its just getting worse and worse. 

[Ghost of LL 15,531]

Minnesota is pretty safe so long as the Cities continue growing and the rest of the state continues shrinking.

[Mrs Whiggins 13,050]

53 minutes ago, tokamak said:

Interesting to me that you listed Montana. I haven't looked at the numbers, but I've been wondering if there could eventually be enough Californians moving to Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho to make them competitive one day. Basically the same thing that happened to Colorado. Not a ton of EVs there, but it would be nice if they weren't Senate locks for the GOP (yes, I know Jon Tester exists).

As far as I can tell the Idaho move-ins are  GOP types.

[Js1 85,300]

Obviously it's not going to be in the next 5 years, but as the climate gets worse, especially in the South, between the heat, water issues, droughts in Texas, hurricanes, people are going to migrate North into the midwest and mountain west. 

That will factor into an eventual realignment of some sort. 

[LTbear 4,168]

1 hour ago, tokamak said:

Interesting to me that you listed Montana. I haven't looked at the numbers, but I've been wondering if there could eventually be enough Californians moving to Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho to make them competitive one day. Basically the same thing that happened to Colorado. Not a ton of EVs there, but it would be nice if they weren't Senate locks for the GOP (yes, I know Jon Tester exists).

I live in Montana. Most of the Californians that move here are conservative Republicans, not the typical stereotype of California. Native-born Montanans are very much independent to Libertarian in their views, to a large degree, but the people moving here are more conservative than liberal.

[Js1 85,300]

2 minutes ago, LTbear said:

I live in Montana. Most of the Californians that move here are conservative Republicans, not the typical stereotype of California. Native-born Montanans are very much independent to Libertarian in their views, to a large degree, but the people moving here are more conservative than liberal.

Yeah, the people leaving California for Florida, Texas, Montana, Idaho are not liberals/Democrats.  It's fucking MAGAs who just want to bitch about taxes and wokeness.

[South Austin 52,460]

8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

That will factor into an eventual realignment of some sort. 

And don't forget media contracts.

[LTbear 4,168]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yeah, the people leaving California for Florida, Texas, Montana, Idaho are not liberals/Democrats.  It's fucking MAGAs who just want to bitch about taxes and wokeness.

Exactly this

[MC Fresh Breath 4,074]

On 2/4/2024 at 7:26 AM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

 The economy is the best talking point, and when they counter with inflation, mention how wage growth is outpacing inflation. If they say their wages haven’t grown as much, well then that’s their problem.

 

This board is a bubble.  Is that wage growth CEO wage growth or the average worker's wages?  Did their wages keep up with the cost of goods?  How many millennials can afford a house now? What is the average age of a millennial?  The middle class and below are getting squeezed terribly whether this place wants to admit or not.  Grocery bills eat up more than they used to eat up.  Then there is everything else.  Use cards cost more now than they used to cost.  Home repairs, medical bills, whatever.  It all costs more.  Do you see the amount of tech layoffs going on lately?  Oh sure we created more jobs--at what pay level? 

None of that is to blame Biden, per se. But when people hurt*  telling them "the economy is great its your fault for being deceived" imo isn't awesome messaging. I'm pretty convinced Biden needs Trump.  Because "I'm not Trump" is his main winning line.

 

* https://jacobin.com/2024/02/us-economy-opinion-polls-cost-of-living

Edited February 8 by MC Fresh Breath

[gmr548 16,576]

1 hour ago, tokamak said:

Interesting to me that you listed Montana. I haven't looked at the numbers, but I've been wondering if there could eventually be enough Californians moving to Montana, Wyoming, and Idaho to make them competitive one day. Basically the same thing that happened to Colorado. Not a ton of EVs there, but it would be nice if they weren't Senate locks for the GOP (yes, I know Jon Tester exists).

Democrats could create a 14 EV swing and pick up 4 senate seats if they just found 250k progressive, outdoor-inclined youth from the west coast and northeast and just moved them to MT and WY. Give them sham jobs with the DNC or something. 

[gmr548 16,576]

58 minutes ago, tokamak said:

I wouldn't count out TN at all. Feels like it could be the "next North Carolina" to me.

What do you think about the flip side of this question? WI, PA, and MI will probably continue to be a headache for Democrats. MN maybe joining them in becoming swing-y? NM if Latinos move right and young people leave the state?

What's the GOP's long game in PA? The state party has ben gutted, SEPA is the only growing part of the state, etc. I'm actually of the opinion that Trump represents the GOP high water mark in PA. MI and WI, yeah, I think they could ultimately trend right, particularly WI. Democrats have a lot of momentum in MI at least.

[BamaATL 16,593]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

Flip timeline broken down further:

Soon: NC

When the Boomers are mostly dead: OH, SC, MT

Within 25 years: IA, AK, TX, FL, IN, KY, WV, KS, MO, NE

Never: OK, AR, LA, TN, MS, AL, ID, UT, WY, SD, ND

 

Before that first large group flips there’s bound to be a major party shift of some kind that renders the prediction worthless.  But NC is in play this cycle and OH, SC, and MT could be real battlegrounds by 2032. (PS: I don’t know shit.)

I think it's real difficult to project much more than immediacy because all this assumes status quo, which ultimately isn't what winds up happening.  When we win this fall, Republicans will be more or less forced to choose staying the course (which currently has them on a losing streak since 2016) or developing a new platform.  While I'd love for them to maintain the same platform that ultimately leads them to consistent bad results; the reality is that they won't.  How they go about doing this is entirely their problem, but they will make changes, thus making today's thinking on the future somewhat moot.  It will be some sort of repackaged bullshit that doesn't stray too far from their current platform, but they will be forced to make concessions on some level in an attempt to regain or gain voters.  

[Brisketexan 105,090]

Just now, BamaATL said:

I think it's real difficult to project much more than immediacy because all this assumes status quo, which ultimately isn't what winds up happening.  When we win this fall, Republicans will be more or less forced to choose staying the course (which currently has them on a losing streak since 2016) or developing a new platform.  While I'd love for them to maintain the same platform that ultimately leads them to consistent bad results; the reality is that they won't.  How they go about doing this is entirely their problem, but they will make changes, thus making today's thinking on the future somewhat moot.  It will be some sort of repackaged bullshit that doesn't stray too far from their current platform, but they will be forced to make concessions on some level in an attempt to regain or gain voters.  

No.  The answer is this: when doubling down didn't work, then you need to TRIPLE down.  If that doesn't work....QUADRUPLE DOWN.  And if THAT doesn't work....INFINITY AND BEYOND DOWN!

Seriously.  Look at the party's evolution on abortion.  They push and push to repeal Roe.  They get it.  It turns into electoral poison.  Their response?  "Oh yeah?  Well...we're gonna criminalize it EVERYWHERE, ALL THE TIME, AND IMPRISON WOMEN WHO GET ABORTIONS!"  

Anytime there is a fork in the road between "somewhat more sane" and "lots more batshit," they will choose batshit, 100% of the time.  Not because they agree with the underlying position, but because "absolutist/batshit" is their brand.  They have no other brand.  They HAVE to choose "batshit."  They have no choice.