2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Fudge Nuggets 18899]

On 3/21/2024 at 12:27 PM, Radical Larry said:

They once had a good article about the nine members of Asian Dawn. 

Asian Dawn was the most viewed video on pornhub before one-eye shut it down from our fair state.

Or so I was told.  By a friend.  Who saved it to his/her hard drive.

[Underdog 28119]

8 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

If I was black, I’d charge $100/hr 

 

 

I'm the dude playin' the dude, disguised as another dude!

[Jack Straw 2953]

On 3/20/2024 at 9:15 PM, henrygandorf said:

there's a large group of americans who have identified as (r) for a long time, probably because their parents were, and have been so turned off by politics (ironically, because of people like trump), that they are purposely disinterested and disengaged.  so when they vote (r), they don't even have to hold their nose.  they purposely don't follow it, they don't talk politics with their friends, they distract themselves with family, kids, reality tv, whatever, and haven't paid attention in 10-15+ years.

there's no possible way 75mm people know what trump is all about and are like, cool, i'll pick him.  no fucking way.

I think it’s actually the exact opposite of that.  In today’s world, it’s literally impossible for anyone, save and except someone like Dick Proenneke maybe - if someone like that exists today - to not know what complete and utter pieces of shit Trump (and 100% of every other (R) out there) are - even if they are purposefully disengaged or disinterested.  It is incredibly depressing, but yes, 75MM people know exactly what Trump is about, and pull that lever.  
 

If someone tells you they vote for or support Trump, or any Republican for anything, they are telling you exactly who they are.  These people are similar to child sex offenders, or terrorists - there is no “yes, but, other he/she is an otherwise good person.”  No, they aren’t.  They are garbage.  

[Gatorubet 29538]

Damn.  Tucker Carlson now has the second most punchable face I’ve ever seen.

[The Dog 43093]

[tx 3 putt 75235]

 

[South Austin 51564]

Cue the MAGA crowd for saying Biden’s tweet was not “presidential.”

[cactusflinthead 26989]

 

[DDD Dad 14060]

On 3/21/2024 at 10:40 AM, SydneyCarton said:

He is so fucking stupid. He's literally said before, that declaring bankruptcy is smart. And he wasn't wrong. He's literally used the defense before of his bankruptcies being smart. He could do it again now, and point out it was necessary becuase of the "political witch-hunt" and blah blah blah, and all his voters would believe him. They'd sympathize with him. Fuck, they'd love him more. But he won't do it because of his fucking ego. 

It's not entirely clear whether the judgment currently at issue would be subject to a discharge in bankruptcy (because it is for fraud).  Also, I am not a bankruptcy lawyer.

[Zonahorn 7921]

 

[Brisketexan 103515]

12 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

 

This.  More of this.  Go for the juggler....and don't let up, ever.

[Js1 82950]

Quote

Key Takeaways 

• The variance in horse-race polling is essentially completely one-sided depending how unified the Democratic sample is. 
• Polling needs to happen consistently right up until the very end (Election Day), which is not normal industry practice, because in recent elections Democrats have not been coming home until the moment they actually vote. 
• There is a group out there saying they are crossover Democratic voters, but they are either coming home to the Dems in the end or staying home in these off-year elections. Figuring out if their turnout actually means they do vote for Trump – or stay home – is the most important factor this cycle. 

 

[Hard Times 285]

As I keep saying this is the the bag. Easy $ if you're a betting person. I'm putting 50 bucks on it.

Joe Biden Gets Good News in Six Key Swing States (newsweek.com)

[Zonahorn 7921]

 

[Ghost of LL 15244]

On 3/24/2024 at 9:52 PM, tx 3 putt said:

 

Biden better hope presidents have absolute immunity, because he just committed a murder.

[henrygandorf 28756]

8 hours ago, Hard Times said:

As I keep saying this is the the bag. Easy $ if you're a betting person. I'm putting 50 bucks on it.

Joe Biden Gets Good News in Six Key Swing States (newsweek.com)

i already got my max bet in at +201 and now it's down to +141.  i can re-max out my bet any time the odds move. 

[Js1 82950]

Dems flipped an AL state house seat. Trump +1 to Dem +26 currently. 

but no, tell me more about how the GOP is going to romp in 2024 when they’re getting blown out in marginally GOP districts in the Deep South 

[Zonahorn 7921]

22 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Dems flipped an AL state house seat. Trump +1 to Dem +26 currently. 

but no, tell me more about how the GOP is going to romp in 2024 when they’re getting blown out in marginally GOP districts in the Deep South 

ABOrTiON iS FaDInG aS aN IssUe

[BamaATL 16009]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Dems flipped an AL state house seat. Trump +1 to Dem +26 currently. 

but no, tell me more about how the GOP is going to romp in 2024 when they’re getting blown out in marginally GOP districts in the Deep South 

Just for clarity, this is suburban Huntsville area.  As above noted, this is a large scale upset.  

[cactusflinthead 26989]

Same election.

Republicans are capable of conceding with some grace.

 

[Chuckie Finster 22285]

9 hours ago, Js1 said:

Dems flipped an AL state house seat. Trump +1 to Dem +26 currently. 

but no, tell me more about how the GOP is going to romp in 2024 when they’re getting blown out in marginally GOP districts in the Deep South 

 

[Gap03 3147]

8 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

Same election.

Republicans are capable of conceding with some grace.

 

... which explains why Powell got boatraced - MAGA ain't voting for anyone with grace.

[Snake Diggity 4548]

Y’all motherfuckers need to quit giving me hope.

A complete rebuke of Trumpism in November wouldn’t make the last 8 years worth it, but it sure would be a societal sigh of relief bigger than anything in my lifetime.

[speed817 18827]

We can all vote for this guy.....

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/politics/lone-star-politics/literally-anybody-else-us-presidential-candidate/3498994

Spoiler

Quote

While recent polls have shown that some voters are not super enthusiastic about the current slate of presidential candidates, one North Texas man has decided to take the race into his own hands.

A North Texas school teacher and U.S. Army veteran has legally changed his name to Literally Anybody Else and announced he is running for U.S. president.

Else, formerly known as Dustin Ebey, said he is deeply unhappy with 2024 presidential candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump so he legally changed his name in January to make a point.

“People are fed up,” Else told the Dallas Morning News. “Government is supposed to be by the people, for the people, but that’s not what we have here. We have a billionaire and a career politician.”

He lives in North Richland Hills and teaches seventh-grade math.

Else knows he faces near-impossible odds and getting on the ballot would be difficult.

He needs a certain amount of signatures from non-primary voters by May 13 to even get his quirky name on the ballot. In Texas, an independent candidate needs a whopping 113, 151 signatures of registered voters who did not vote in the presidential primary of either party, per state law.

So, Else is encouraging voters to write in Literally Anybody Else.

Else campaigned before a Dallas Stars game and is considering hosting a campaign event this month. Other than that, he is relying on word of mouth.

According to the Dallas Morning News, Else hopes to soon hire an assistant to help field calls from media and supporters.

“Literally Anybody Else isn’t a person,” Else wrote on his website:

"For too long have Americans been a victim of its political parties putting party loyalty over governance. Together lets send the message to Washington and say, “You will represent the people or be replaced.” America should not be stuck choosing between the “King of Debt” (his self-declaration) and an 81-year old. Literally Anybody Else isn’t a just a person, it’s a rally cry."

 

 

[bluto 4804]

42 minutes ago, speed817 said:

We can all vote for this guy.....

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/politics/lone-star-politics/literally-anybody-else-us-presidential-candidate/3498994

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

No we cant

[atomheartbevo 88914]

52 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Y’all motherfuckers need to quit giving me hope.

A complete rebuke of Trumpism in November wouldn’t make the last 8 years worth it, but it sure would be a societal sigh of relief bigger than anything in my lifetime.

[Js1 82950]

2 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:

 

And the actual internal polling - the R had himself winning by 10 and the Dem by 2. So both were really fucking off 

[High Plains Drifter 10930]

21 hours ago, Hard Times said:

As I keep saying this is the the bag. Easy $ if you're a betting person. I'm putting 50 bucks on it.

Joe Biden Gets Good News in Six Key Swing States (newsweek.com)

 

13 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

i already got my max bet in at +201 and now it's down to +141.  i can re-max out my bet any time the odds move. 

 

where do y'all bet?

 

[The Dog 43093]

10 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Just for clarity, this is suburban Huntsville area.  As above noted, this is a large scale upset.  

Huntsville is also home to a lot of DoD and NASA contractors - not exactly a bastion of hillbillies. These are the kind of voters who reliably voted GOP for decades that Trump has lost. 

2 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:

 

I looked at Sabato's feed and he's been calling bullshit on the polls for a while. He's pretty much the gold standard when it comes to this stuff.

Nothing is guaranteed ever but at this point is hard to ignore the canaries in the mines are screaming.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11511]

26 minutes ago, Js1 said:

And the actual internal polling - the R had himself winning by 10 and the Dem by 2. So both were really fucking off 

this is what we need: the ability to compare a poll to the result of that same race. 

[chainsaw 9573]

5 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Huntsville is also home to a lot of DoD and NASA contractors - not exactly a bastion of hillbillies. These are the kind of voters who reliably voted GOP for decades that Trump has lost. 

I looked at Sabato's feed and he's been calling bullshit on the polls for a while. He's pretty much the gold standard when it comes to this stuff.

Nothing is guaranteed ever but at this point is hard to ignore the canaries in the mines are screaming.

There are some pockets of the country that are incredibly difficult to poll. This could be one of those.

['stache 21520]

1 hour ago, speed817 said:

We can all vote for this guy.....

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/politics/lone-star-politics/literally-anybody-else-us-presidential-candidate/3498994

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

Cool both sides bro.

[Guest]

Why was there a special election for that district is they just voted in 2022 and it's the same people running?

[Chuckie Finster 22285]

6 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

There are some pockets of the country that are incredibly difficult to poll. This could be one of those.

From what I've seen over the last few months, the "pockets of the country that are incredibly difficult to poll" appear to be all of them.

[Pato del Muerto 52036]

12 hours ago, Zonahorn said:

ABOrTiON iS FaDInG aS aN IssUe

Tub of fraud votes at it again!

[chainsaw 9573]

1 minute ago, Chuckie Finster said:

From what I've seen over the last few months, the "pockets of the country that are incredibly difficult to poll" appear to be all of them.

Hopefully! This seems like an outlier in terms of sheer magnitude of the wrongness

[cactusflinthead 26989]

48 minutes ago, Js1 said:

both were really fucking off 

Is it fixable? We've discussed the problems with present day polling. Some are laughably bad, and they can stand on the MOE sometimes, but I don't think I can point to any single pollster that I trust implicitly. There are too many factors working against them to get an accurate assessment. It's easier to look at the string of recent elections. This one stands out. But, there's danger in that too.

I want to get good vibes from it, but it's early and I can't afford to get comfortable or complacent. 

 

[Js1 82950]

3 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Is it fixable? We've discussed the problems with present day polling. Some are laughably bad, and they can stand on the MOE sometimes, but I don't think I can point to any single pollster that I trust implicitly. There are too many factors working against them to get an accurate assessment. It's easier to look at the string of recent elections. This one stands out. But, there's danger in that too.

I want to get good vibes from it, but it's early and I can't afford to get comfortable or complacent. 

 

I don’t think it’s fixable. You have way too many bad actors messing with them (the online surveys) and you have distinct demographics that do not answer the phone 

[Doc Sam Beckett 5712]

37 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

 

where do y'all bet?

 

Biden is +130 at Bovada right now. 

[cactusflinthead 26989]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

don’t think it’s fixable

You know they won't take that answer. That's like telling us we can't speculate on next year in football. No polling? TV would curl up and whimper. Accuracy be damned we need to talk about this in terms of a race and how are we supposed to do that if we can't figure out who is ahead?

There's got to be a way to poll the resistant demos. Bad actors gotta have a tell. Some intrepid soul is pondering this too. Until then the Nates are going to keep running it out there even if it's way off. 

[Js1 82950]

9 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

You know they won't take that answer. That's like telling us we can't speculate on next year in football. No polling? TV would curl up and whimper. Accuracy be damned we need to talk about this in terms of a race and how are we supposed to do that if we can't figure out who is ahead?

There's got to be a way to poll the resistant demos. Bad actors gotta have a tell. Some intrepid soul is pondering this too. Until then the Nates are going to keep running it out there even if it's way off. 

That’s the problem. It’s not fixable but until the media has a come to Jesus moment about polling vs results (who knows, maybe 2024 will be the moment), they’ll continue to hold onto it to keep them relevant.

Unfixable doesn’t just mean methodology. It also is unfixable when the media uses it to prop up a horse race / story line and completely tell you to ignore actual election results. It’s unfixable because they’re not longer believable 

[BamaATL 16009]

1 hour ago, FirstTimeCaller said:

Why was there a special election for that district is they just voted in 2022 and it's the same people running?

I could be wrong, but I think it had to do with state redistricting.  It was odd.  

[Js1 82950]

5 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I could be wrong, but I think it had to do with state redistricting.  It was odd.  

It was an open seat - David Cole beat Lands 52-45 in 2022, but he resigned due to voter fraud (https://www.wlbt.com/2023/10/11/former-alabama-representative-sentenced-after-pleading-guilty-voter-fraud/) 

Lands beat Republican Teddy owell this time around

[Rimbo 25223]

2 hours ago, bluto said:

No we cant

my son has informed me that he's wasting his first-ever vote in November on Vermin Supreme

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13406]

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

but he resigned due to voter fraud

You can't parody the GOP.

[SydneyCarton 47298]

1 minute ago, Rimbo said:

my son has informed me that he's wasting his first-ever vote in November on Vermin Supreme

And your reaction to that was?

[Rimbo 25223]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

And the actual internal polling - the R had himself winning by 10 and the Dem by 2. So both were really fucking off 

 

And this is the second actual election where we've seen this just this year, with the Long Island Congressional vote being the first.

Unless you want to include all the primary results. 😁

 

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

Huntsville is also home to a lot of DoD and NASA contractors - not exactly a bastion of hillbillies. These are the kind of voters who reliably voted GOP for decades that Trump has lost. 

I looked at Sabato's feed and he's been calling bullshit on the polls for a while. He's pretty much the gold standard when it comes to this stuff.

Nothing is guaranteed ever but at this point is hard to ignore the canaries in the mines are screaming.

 

And yet, Nate Silver will find a way to ignore it.

 

1 hour ago, chainsaw said:

There are some pockets of the country that are incredibly difficult to poll. This could be one of those.

 

Map of those pockets:

(affected areas are in light yellow)

 

1 hour ago, chainsaw said:

Hopefully! This seems like an outlier in terms of sheer magnitude of the wrongness

 

See Long Island results above.

 

1 hour ago, cactusflinthead said:

Is it fixable? We've discussed the problems with present day polling. Some are laughably bad, and they can stand on the MOE sometimes, but I don't think I can point to any single pollster that I trust implicitly. There are too many factors working against them to get an accurate assessment. It's easier to look at the string of recent elections. This one stands out. But, there's danger in that too.

I want to get good vibes from it, but it's early and I can't afford to get comfortable or complacent. 

 

 

I'm sure it is if the pollsters WANT to fix it, but they aren't even at the phase of recognizing that there's a problem yet. As long as media companies are willing to keep paying them for the shit they're pooping out now, they have no need to change.

 

Just now, SydneyCarton said:

And your reaction to that was?

 

Parental disappointment. Fortunately, we live in California, where his vote will be like the federally allowed amount of rat shit in your Jimmy Dean sausage -- you cringe that it's there, but it's not enough to make you not buy and eat the delicious, tasty Jimmy Dean sausage. Mmmmmm.

[Pato del Muerto 52036]

12 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

 

And this is the second actual election where we've seen this just this year, with the Long Island Congressional vote being the first.

Unless you want to include all the primary results. 😁

 

 

And yet, Nate Silver will find a way to ignore it.

 

 

Map of those pockets:

(affected areas are in light yellow)

 

 

See Long Island results above.

 

 

I'm sure it is if the pollsters WANT to fix it, but they aren't even at the phase of recognizing that there's a problem yet. As long as media companies are willing to keep paying them for the shit they're pooping out now, they have no need to change.

 

 

Parental disappointment. Fortunately, we live in California, where his vote will be like the federally allowed amount of rat shit in your Jimmy Dean sausage -- you cringe that it's there, but it's not enough to make you not buy and eat the delicious, tasty Jimmy Dean sausage. Mmmmmm.

Which size package of jimmy dean sausage?

[Rimbo 25223]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Which size package of jimmy dean sausage?

it's a percentage, so it's the same ratio

i buy whatever gets me the most sausage per dollar; sometimes you get these "$x if you buy 5" deals on the smaller packs

[SydneyCarton 47298]

24 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

 

 

 

Parental disappointment. Fortunately, we live in California, where his vote will be like the federally allowed amount of rat shit in your Jimmy Dean sausage -- you cringe that it's there, but it's not enough to make you not buy and eat the delicious, tasty Jimmy Dean sausage. Mmmmmm.

ha. I was more curious what your verbal response/conversation was when he told you that, as well as whether or not you believed him or thought he was just fucking with you becuase 18-22 year old kid.