2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

30 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

 

And this is the second actual election where we've seen this just this year, with the Long Island Congressional vote being the first.

Unless you want to include all the primary results. 😁

 

 

And yet, Nate Silver will find a way to ignore it.

 

 

Map of those pockets:

(affected areas are in light yellow)

 

 

See Long Island results above.

 

 

I'm sure it is if the pollsters WANT to fix it, but they aren't even at the phase of recognizing that there's a problem yet. As long as media companies are willing to keep paying them for the shit they're pooping out now, they have no need to change.

 

 

Parental disappointment. Fortunately, we live in California, where his vote will be like the federally allowed amount of rat shit in your Jimmy Dean sausage -- you cringe that it's there, but it's not enough to make you not buy and eat the delicious, tasty Jimmy Dean sausage. Mmmmmm.

AK and HI very easy to poll.  Got it.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13522]

7 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

ha. I was more curious what your verbal response/conversation was when he told you that, as well as whether or not you believed him or thought he was just fucking with you becuase 18-22 year old kid. 

I bet that many young men are likely to encounter peer pressure to vote for Trump. At least in the sense that the vocal minority in a friend/acquaintance group are the ones who bring up Biden's senility and that only betas or losers vote Dem.

In an extended friend group, I recently encountered a guy who went on how he wasn't friends with liberals. I mentioned that I frequently vote Democrat. He folded like a cheap suit. "I was only joking bro." My attitude and actual thought was that his opinion meant nothing to me.

[Js1 85528]

13 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

ha. I was more curious what your verbal response/conversation was when he told you that, as well as whether or not you believed him or thought he was just fucking with you becuase 18-22 year old kid. 

Yeah, you have to instill early on that voting isn't a meme.  It has real world consequences.  "well I live in X, so my vote doesn't matter" is why Texas will probably never flip. 

[henrygandorf 29194]

2 hours ago, High Plains Drifter said:

where do y'all bet?

your mom's house.

[Ghost of LL 15539]

14 hours ago, Js1 said:

Dems flipped an AL state house seat. Trump +1 to Dem +26 currently. 

but no, tell me more about how the GOP is going to romp in 2024 when they’re getting blown out in marginally GOP districts in the Deep South 

Tell me how a special election for a state House of Representatives seat with miniscule turnout is predictive of a high-turnout presidential election.

We all know that the people most likely to turn out in special elections are highly educated and politically inclined voters.  And right now, that's a group Democrats do very well with.  It's not a surprise that Democrats overperform in such elections; it would be a huge alarm bell if they didn't significantly overperform.

So when a Democrat won a special election in Oklahoma in 2017, did it indicate that the Oklahoma Senate seat on the ballot in 2018 would go Democratic?  Fuck no.  But the overperformance was in the range that indicated that 2018 would be a good year for Democrats (though not necessarily so good so as to turn Oklahoma (or even that Oklahoma congressional district) blue).

What I'm saying is this: we need to be really cautious about touting special election results.  A Democrat won.  But a Democrat probably should've won.  It's like beating New Mexico State 66-36 in Week 1--that's great.  But we were supposed to win.  And if we're giving up 36 points to New Mexico fucking State, uhhhhh . . . I don't like our chances next week against UCLA.

[henrygandorf 29194]

3 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

What I'm saying is this: we need to be really cautious about touting special election results.  A Democrat won.  But a Democrat probably should've won.  It's like beating New Mexico State 66-36 in Week 1--that's great.  But we were supposed to win.  And if we're giving up 36 points to New Mexico fucking State, uhhhhh . . . I don't like our chances next week against UCLA.

this sounds like something we would probably do.

[Js1 85528]

A Democrat should have won in a seat that was R+1 and R+7 the last 2 elections? By 25 points? And overperformed R internal polling by 35 and D internal polling by 23?

Maybe, just maybe, there's something missing from the media "conventional wisdom" about Trump up high single digits in every single swing state.  Unless you believe that women will vote for Republicans, youth voters are 50/50 and Trump is going to capture 25% of black voters.  Because the results don't agree with that.

Roe still matters. A lot. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

9 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Tell me how a special election for a state House of Representatives seat with miniscule turnout is predictive of a high-turnout presidential election.

We all know that the people most likely to turn out in special elections are highly educated and politically inclined voters.  And right now, that's a group Democrats do very well with.  It's not a surprise that Democrats overperform in such elections; it would be a huge alarm bell if they didn't significantly overperform.

So when a Democrat won a special election in Oklahoma in 2017, did it indicate that the Oklahoma Senate seat on the ballot in 2018 would go Democratic?  Fuck no.  But the overperformance was in the range that indicated that 2018 would be a good year for Democrats (though not necessarily so good so as to turn Oklahoma (or even that Oklahoma congressional district) blue).

What I'm saying is this: we need to be really cautious about touting special election results.  A Democrat won.  But a Democrat probably should've won.  It's like beating New Mexico State 66-36 in Week 1--that's great.  But we were supposed to win.  And if we're giving up 36 points to New Mexico fucking State, uhhhhh . . . I don't like our chances next week against UCLA.

all this is true, but the polls are specific to this special election.  they take into account the skewed turnout.  and they still erred R.  that's the value i get out of it.

[YGIFS 19452]

14 minutes ago, Js1 said:

A Democrat should have won in a seat that was R+1 and R+7 the last 2 elections? By 25 points? And overperformed R internal polling by 35 and D internal polling by 23?

Maybe, just maybe, there's something missing from the media "conventional wisdom" about Trump up high single digits in every single swing state.  Unless you believe that women will vote for Republicans, youth voters are 50/50 and Trump is going to capture 25% of black voters.  Because the results don't agree with that.

Roe still matters. A lot. 

This is a fair point, and once again---redundant Lobo.  Do your thing.  Turn out your vote.  Rock the vote.  Turn things blue, whatever it is.  There will be millions of spite votes for Trump just to "teach us a lesson."  But what will make or break this whole thing is shaming enough of them to just sit at home.  Suburban, some/full college women.  Get them to feel so bad they tell their husbands they voted for Trump even though they didn't bother.  I fully understand how sexist that sounds, but they have to stay home.  A few million of them.  They have to feel shamed about what they did in 2016 and 2020 to enable this piece of shit.  And they have to quietly decline voting for him.  In the right states, and he's toast.  They'll get back up and get motivated again in the name of Jesus, the unborn, and quality skin care products at affordable prices.  But for right now, this cycle---we need a few million women to sit this one out.  That's how you get Capone.  

[Rimbo 26053]

51 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

ha. I was more curious what your verbal response/conversation was when he told you that, as well as whether or not you believed him or thought he was just fucking with you becuase 18-22 year old kid. 

 

37 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yeah, you have to instill early on that voting isn't a meme.  It has real world consequences.  "well I live in X, so my vote doesn't matter" is why Texas will probably never flip. 

 

So what Js1 said is what I tried to do. I don't know if it got through, but I have to say it, hoping that it'll make an impression.

I think the message I want to give him is: If you wait until politics affects you to start caring about it, by then, it will be too late; start caring about it now, so you don't end up in that position.

He has an interest in guns, which has made him vulnerable to NRA bullshit. When he shares their arguments with me (as if they were his own), all I can say is, "I used to say those things myself." And hopefully that'll push the door open to investigation on his own part. I can't change his mind for him.

[Rimbo 26053]

29 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Tell me how a special election for a state House of Representatives seat with miniscule turnout is predictive of a high-turnout presidential election.

It's just a single data point that follows all that has happened since Roe v. Wade was overturned. We've talked about abortion being a case of the dog finally catching the car. That's what happened in Alabama, and what happened in 2022. I can't overemphasize the importance of 2022; the Presidents' party rarely increases its lead in a mid-term election.

The Republicans sinking the border deal is another -- they delivered this issue straight into the Democrats' open arms; that's what we saw in Long Island.

Where issues impact people in real ways, that's where we see the votes going, and right now, the Democrats are holding a royal flush and the GOP has a Jack high.

[Covri 6252]

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Which size package of jimmy dean sausage?

The full one pound package for a real American, none of that danty 12oz package that couldn’t even feed a family of five including my wife and daughter who are not small gals themselves.

[Ghost of LL 15539]

28 minutes ago, Js1 said:

A Democrat should have won in a seat that was R+1 and R+7 the last 2 elections? By 25 points? And overperformed R internal polling by 35 and D internal polling by 23?

Maybe, just maybe, there's something missing from the media "conventional wisdom" about Trump up high single digits in every single swing state.  Unless you believe that women will vote for Republicans, youth voters are 50/50 and Trump is going to capture 25% of black voters.  Because the results don't agree with that.

Roe still matters. A lot. 

Two things can be true at the same time.  Polls can be broken, and Democrats can be expected to overperform in special elections that are (almost by definition) low-turnout affairs.  So when I say "A Democrat should be expected to significantly overperform in a low-turnout special election," it is not responsive to that point to say "but the polls are fucked up."

 

And by the way, that's particularly true of polls in a late-March special election.  All of the difficulties of polling a nationwide election are magnified when your constituency is so small.  How the fuck do you get a decent sample when an Alabama House district only has 42,000 residents?

[Pato del Muerto 52571]

42 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Two things can be true at the same time.  Polls can be broken, and Democrats can be expected to overperform in special elections that are (almost by definition) low-turnout affairs.  So when I say "A Democrat should be expected to significantly overperform in a low-turnout special election," it is not responsive to that point to say "but the polls are fucked up."

 

And by the way, that's particularly true of polls in a late-March special election.  All of the difficulties of polling a nationwide election are magnified when your constituency is so small.  How the fuck do you get a decent sample when an Alabama House district only has 42,000 residents?

Well we had at least a reference to internal polls from both candidates that were both way off, if the numbers given were accurate representations of that polling.  Shouldn’t polls for that race take those things into consideration and bias for them accordingly?  Then again i guess it’s not exactly the NYT running those polls for a special Alabama state leg seat. 

[The Dog 44124]

2 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

Two things can be true at the same time.  Polls can be broken, and Democrats can be expected to overperform in special elections that are (almost by definition) low-turnout affairs.  So when I say "A Democrat should be expected to significantly overperform in a low-turnout special election," it is not responsive to that point to say "but the polls are fucked up."

 

And by the way, that's particularly true of polls in a late-March special election.  All of the difficulties of polling a nationwide election are magnified when your constituency is so small.  How the fuck do you get a decent sample when an Alabama House district only has 42,000 residents?

I think it's because we're looking at yet another data point in a long line of others since the Dobbs decision (and other stuff). The fact she won isn't the shock - it's the margin. 

[Ghost of LL 15539]

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Well we had at least a reference to internal polls from both candidates that were both way off, if the numbers given were accurate representations of that polling.  Shouldn’t polls for that race take those things into consideration and bias for them accordingly?  Then again i guess it’s not exactly the NYT running those polls for a special Alabama state leg seat. 

And that's the punchline.  You have a very challenging race to poll, and probably the least capable pollsters doing the polling.  When you have a 25- or 30-point polling miss, that's reflecting of shitty polling.  And given the challenging environment and the likely quality of the pollsters involved, that probably should be a surprise.

4 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I think it's because we're looking at yet another data point in a long line of others since the Dobbs decision (and other stuff). The fact she won isn't the shock - it's the margin. 

And I'm not saying otherwise.

Look--I've been pretty bullish on Biden's chances throughout this cycle.  And I think I've pointed out on this and other threads some of the challenges that pollsters face and why I think Nate Silver's take is increasingly comical.  I agree with you that Dobbs is going to be a big motivator for voters, and may alone be enough to push Biden over the finish line.

All I'm saying--but I'm saying it loudly--is to be cautious of special-election results and to not give them more weight than is due.  They're sui generis.  I mean, it's good to win elections.  I'm not doing the NYT punchline of "Democrat wins by 25 points; here's why that's bad for Biden."  I'm just saying that there are a whole lot of MAGAts who didn't vote in this election (and who probably didn't even know that there was an election going on) who are going to turn out in November to vote for their Orange God.

[The Dog 44124]

5 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

All I'm saying--but I'm saying it loudly--is to be cautious of special-election results and to not give them more weight than is due.

agreed.

5 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I'm not doing the NYT punchline of "Democrat wins by 25 points; here's why that's bad for Biden." 

speaking of that:

 

[Brisketexan 105275]

4 hours ago, Rimbo said:

it's a percentage, so it's the same ratio

i buy whatever gets me the most sausage per dollar; sometimes you get these "$x if you buy 5" deals on the smaller packs

 

2 hours ago, Covri said:

The full one pound package for a real American, none of that danty 12oz package that couldn’t even feed a family of five including my wife and daughter who are not small gals themselves.

Save money, save money, fuck, I wanna eat, goddammit!

[Voldemort86 2259]

The fall of Trafalgar was glorious to behold. I always laughed my ass off when repubs would quote Trafalgar polls then they would lose and the poll would usually be 5-15 points off the end result.

[gmr548 16607]

10 hours ago, Js1 said:

That’s the problem. It’s not fixable but until the media has a come to Jesus moment about polling vs results (who knows, maybe 2024 will be the moment), they’ll continue to hold onto it to keep them relevant.

Unfixable doesn’t just mean methodology. It also is unfixable when the media uses it to prop up a horse race / story line and completely tell you to ignore actual election results. It’s unfixable because they’re not longer believable 

 

13 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:

 

 

11 hours ago, Js1 said:

And the actual internal polling - the R had himself winning by 10 and the Dem by 2. So both were really fucking off 

 

11 hours ago, The Dog said:

Huntsville is also home to a lot of DoD and NASA contractors - not exactly a bastion of hillbillies. These are the kind of voters who reliably voted GOP for decades that Trump has lost. 

I looked at Sabato's feed and he's been calling bullshit on the polls for a while. He's pretty much the gold standard when it comes to this stuff.

Nothing is guaranteed ever but at this point is hard to ignore the canaries in the mines are screaming.

 

10 hours ago, Js1 said:

I don’t think it’s fixable. You have way too many bad actors messing with them (the online surveys) and you have distinct demographics that do not answer the phone 

 

10 hours ago, Js1 said:

That’s the problem. It’s not fixable but until the media has a come to Jesus moment about polling vs results (who knows, maybe 2024 will be the moment), they’ll continue to hold onto it to keep them relevant.

Unfixable doesn’t just mean methodology. It also is unfixable when the media uses it to prop up a horse race / story line and completely tell you to ignore actual election results. It’s unfixable because they’re not longer believable 

I want to believe this, which means I find myself extremely skeptical. To play devils advocate: Polls have indeed missed pretty significantly in both elections with Trump on the ballot - that's true! Both misses were large and... in favor of Trump. Polls were pretty accurate in 2018 and 2022 midterms, where Democrats were also murdering the GOP in special elections. One could easily conclude that presidential election polling is struggling because it can't capture the low propensity voters that tend to lean Trump. 

Why is that wrong?

[gmr548 16607]

Also on the topic of polling, Split Ticket did a poll and accompanying piece on young voters:

https://split-ticket.org/2024/03/27/we-polled-young-voters-heres-what-we-found/

[Js1 85528]

That’s very interesting. I think RFK’s “support” will drop off considerably by November. It’s easy to say you’ll vote for him now, as everyone does with third parties. Then it will slowly decrease as people pay more attention 

[aggie08 21525]

21 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

 

 

 

 

I want to believe this, which means I find myself extremely skeptical. To play devils advocate: Polls have indeed missed pretty significantly in both elections with Trump on the ballot - that's true! Both misses were large and... in favor of Trump. Polls were pretty accurate in 2018 and 2022 midterms, where Democrats were also murdering the GOP in special elections. One could easily conclude that presidential election polling is struggling because it can't capture the low propensity voters that tend to lean Trump. 

Why is that wrong?

This is where I'm at. I'm fully on board with the trend that polls are unable to capture the intense anti-GOP sentiment, especially since striking down Roe v. Wade

...except as it relates to polls with Trump's name directly on the ballot. Twice now he's far exceeded his polling in Presidential elections. Even anonymously, few people are willing to admit their support for Trump. Look at this site: how many people admit to voting for him in 2020? 2? 3? Not even fatty or Incredulity will admit to it for fuck's sake. We know damn well that the number is closer to 50% given that this site is full of Texans.

So the embarrassed Trump vote still concerns me, and I don't see the Presidential polls getting the same massive Democrat kick on election day that others have.

[gmr548 16607]

6 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Look at this site: how many people admit to voting for him in 2020? 2? 3? Not even fatty or Incredulity will admit to it for fuck's sake.

This is one of the consistently weirdest phenomena on this site.

[aggie08 21525]

To put it more succinctly, most voters don't lump Trump in with the GOP. He's Trump.

[Pato del Muerto 52571]

36 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

We know damn well that the number is closer to 50% given that this site is full of Texans

This site is full of college graduates.  And probably  higher than average % with an advanced degree.  And also helobius. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

11 hours ago, aggie08 said:

Even anonymously, few people are willing to admit their support for Trump. Look at this site: how many people admit to voting for him in 2020? 2? 3?

Yes.  Very few will admit to voting for Trump in 2022 or 2023.  

[aggie08 21525]

10 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

This site is full of college graduates.  And probably  higher than average % with an advanced degree.  And also helobius. 

Fine. 40%

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

UT Great G Elliot calling BS on youth polling. 
 

 

 

[GhostOfTomJoad 9349]

Yes.  Very few will admit to voting for Trump in 2022 or 2023.  

Bingo. My aggy BIL who is a straight ticket R voter for life and refers to the old compact fluorescent lights as Obama bulbs & decries how hideous they were for the environment while he pours used motor oil into the ground is even trying to distance himself from Trump publicly. His wife & daughter vocally refusing to vote for Trump in 2020 (both did in '16) has caused him to tone down his support slightly.

His Yeti beer cooler is covered in stickers from breweries, aggy shit, and even a Longhorn logo one of his buddies put on as a joke. And there's one strategic Trump 2020 sticker. When I said "looks like you need to stop by a new microbrewery & get some decals to cover that up" he tried to laugh it off as if it was just a prank someone pulled on him a la the Texas sticker. But like every O&G worker in Tomball he's gonna pull that lever for Trump 100 times out of 100.

[Kyrie Eleison 9312]

https://www.threads.net/@joebiden/post/C5D-xO0oZRh

[tx 3 putt 77336]

 

[LCHorn 2629]

14 hours ago, aggie08 said:

We know damn well that the number is closer to 50% given that this site is full of Texans

I think you're overlooking the self-sorting aspect of the universities and boards (while you're conclusion may remain true).  TexAgs is probably where you find those missing voters. 

[aggie08 21525]

6 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I think you're overlooking the self-sorting aspect of the universities and boards (while you're conclusion may remain true).  TexAgs is probably where you find those missing voters. 

I wouldn't exactly call Texags "embarrassed Trump voters".

[SydneyCarton 48150]

7 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

I wouldn't exactly call Texags "embarrassed Trump voters".

Often wrong, never in doubt. 

[Gap03 3310]

1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

Screen cap on that ad is just ...

[Guest]

So Biden is raising $25 million today... more in a day than Trump has raised in a month:

https://apnews.com/article/democrats-election-2024-fundraiser-new-york-ebfbc81d3b70f38745ae00c7ce6a382d

A fundraiser for President Joe Biden on Thursday in New York City that also stars Barack Obama and Bill Clinton is raising a whopping $25 million, setting a record for the biggest haul for a political event, his campaign said.

Obama and Clinton are helping Biden expand his already significant cash advantage over Trump. Biden had $155 million in cash on hand through the end of February, compared with $37 million for Trump and his Save America political action committee.

The $25 million tally for the New York City event includes money from supporters who handed over cash in the weeks before the fundraiser for a chance to attend. It’s raising $5 million more than Trump raised during February.

 

I personally think that the money aspect in political campaigns is obscene and gross and seems to mean as much bragging about how much money UT athletics earns, but ground his ass into dust, Joe.

[safe sex 11746]

You're correct about the obscenity of money in politics, but that's the game we've gotta play right now

[Ted Lange 16113]

New York Times,  Biden’s fund raising issues signal trouble for the incumbent 

Biden has massive fund raising event

New York Times, The amount of money Joe Biden brought in, once again raises questions about money and politics, and is a reason many want an outsider like Trump.  

Edited March 28 by Ted Lange

[mchookem 16367]

7 hours ago, LCHorn said:

I think you're overlooking the self-sorting aspect of the universities and boards (while you're conclusion may remain true).  TexAgs is probably where you find those missing voters. 

more like missing links, amirite

 

also apparently Trump is referring to the aforementioned fundraiser as the "Obama-Clinton-Biden Cartel!!" 😄

[Js1 85528]

Bitchin nickname. Gangster as fuck

[Horn Dog 9904]

1 hour ago, Ted Lange said:

New York Times,  Biden’s fund raising issues signal trouble for the incumbent 

Biden has massive fund raising event

New York Times, The amount of money Joe Biden brought in, once again raises questions about money and politics, and is a reason many want an outsider like Trump.  

Biden campaign’s obssession with money advantage indicates insecurity regarding candidate weakness 

[berlinerbaer 678]

A new meme is needed. It's too bad Corvettes are only two-seaters.

[dcbc 14507]

1 hour ago, mchookem said:

more like missing links, amirite

 

also apparently Trump is referring to the aforementioned fundraiser as the "Obama-Clinton-Biden Cartel!!" 😄

Which says to me, given the fact that W-Bush even endorsed him too  He currently is endorsed by every living former-president.  When has that ever happened?  Checkmate, Donald.

Edited March 29 by dcbc

[Covri 6252]

He’ll always be Diamond Joe to me 

 

[BamaATL 16593]

14 minutes ago, Covri said:

He’ll always be Diamond Joe to me 

 

His approved fill-in "Worm" was on it.  

[WhatTheBuck 28797]

3 hours ago, safe sex said:

You're correct about the obscenity of money in politics, but that's the game we've gotta play right now

And it’s the GOP who started it. Fucking Citizens United was an abomination.

[Jhawkmvp 1489]

1 hour ago, berlinerbaer said:

A new meme is needed. It's too bad Corvettes are only two-seaters.

[dcbc 14507]

1 hour ago, Covri said:

He’ll always be Diamond Joe to me 

 

These were good times.

[BrickHorn 18277]

1 hour ago, Covri said:

He’ll always be Diamond Joe to me