2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

['stache 21805]

Trump just called immigrants "animals." His numbers will go up.

[babysdaddy 2721]

10 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Damn, Karl Rove going hard in the paint, call the J6ers thugs and saying "Every one of those sons of bitches who did that, we ought to find them, try them, and send them to jail."  

 

40 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

So basically every single poll has Biden ahead now, weird how polls are no longer in the news.

https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-biden-poll-swing-states-ad594acb?st=s6hon8cd9njc5f6&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

[Js1 85313]

24 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

what polls are you talking about?

Yesterday: 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/03/us/politics/trump-biden-wsj-poll.html?searchResultPosition=1

 

And there’s 2 more national polls showing Biden ahead and a PA poll showing him ahead. But those don’t get play

[Chuckie Finster 22694]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

And there’s 2 more national polls showing Biden ahead and a PA poll showing him ahead. But those don’t get play

By TEN fucking points.

[hornmpa96 2618]

The WSJ article describing the results of the poll had a comment from one of the respondents demonstrating its ridiculousness. A Biden 2020 voter stated they will absolutely not vote for Trump but isn’t happy with Biden and is therefore “undecided.” It’s bullshit - they will be a Biden voter.

The same poll also somehow found that 13% of the sample is voting for RFK in Arizona.

Polling is just clickbait at this point.

[Red Five 40854]

When Trump is sitting in courtrooms every day this summer, broke and begging for money, this is going to break wide open. 

I hope.

[chainsaw 9866]

The media wants a horse race, and there are ways to get the numbers to say what you want them to say, even when using credible pollsters.

The most interesting thing about this race is the "double haters" phenomenon, which is a byproduct of the fact that you have two people who have actually been POTUS before rather than a typical incumbent vs newcomer race.

The second most interesting thing about this race is that we haven't really tried to measure how much the enthusiasm for Trump has dropped off compared to 2020 (and compared to 2016). The media wants a horse race, so I don't expect those stories to be told or those measurements to be talked about.

[Js1 85313]

3 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

The most interesting thing about this race is the "double haters" phenomenon, which is a byproduct of the fact that you have two people who have actually been POTUS before rather than a typical incumbent vs newcomer race.

Except most polling shows Biden winning double haters pretty handily. Like Trump did in 2016

[gmr548 16576]

52 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

So basically every single poll has Biden ahead now, weird how polls are no longer in the news.

I'm sorry, what?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/trump-biden-polls/

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024#!

I'm not one to make a ton of polls this early either way but the copium on this board can border on disinformation at times.

[SydneyCarton 48081]

41 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Karl Rove can suck it.  We're in this mess because of people like him.

I'm pretty sure people like him, who have become vocal never trumpers, most of them are mostly just pissed that their power within the Repulican party has been wildly diminished. Not that they actually give a fuck. 

[gmr548 16576]

11 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

The WSJ article describing the results of the poll had a comment from one of the respondents demonstrating its ridiculousness. A Biden 2020 voter stated they will absolutely not vote for Trump but isn’t happy with Biden and is therefore “undecided.” It’s bullshit - they will be a Biden voter.

The same poll also somehow found that 13% of the sample is voting for RFK in Arizona.

Polling is just clickbait at this point.

RFK is a little worrisome because of how low info the American electorate is and how well funded their campaign is. He's not getting double digits but if they lean into a disinformation campaign they can definitely get up into the 5%+ range and swing the election to Trump. Maybe he'll run out of money, maybe he'll say some outlandishly stupid things (didn't stop Gary Johnson from hitting that threshold), maybe more detailed media coverage will effectively shine a light on his nuttiness. It's early, but there's a universe where he's a big problem.

[Chuckie Finster 22694]

3 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I'm sorry, what?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/trump-biden-polls/

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024#!

I'm not one to make a ton of polls this early either way but the copium on this board can border on disinformation at times.

 

Nate, known Biden copium addict. (Back to my original point, kinda shocked he is actually commenting on this.)

Edited April 4 by Chuckie Finster

[Js1 85313]

5 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I'm not one to make a ton of polls this early either way but the copium on this board can border on disinformation at times.

Is he leading in every poll? No.  But there's been quantifiable movement towards Biden in almost every national and some state polls since the SOTU

Also please do not ever link to RCP - they are a GOP aggregator who will intentionally ignore polls that don't meet their bias. 

Also 538 doesn't yet have Emerson's new poll that is Biden +2

Edited April 4 by Js1

[gmr548 16576]

Just now, Chuckie Finster said:

 

Nate, known Biden copium addict.

Ah, yes, "definitely look better" (which I think everyone would agree with and is documented in averages) is totally the same as "basically every single poll has Biden ahead now."

This is my point.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

we do a lot of left wing texags on this site.

[gmr548 16576]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Is he leading in every poll? No.  But there's been quantifiable movement towards Biden in almost every national and some state polls since the SOTU

I'm not arguing with the latter. That wasn't the claim. The former was.

[Dahobbs 17534]

9 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

RFK is a little worrisome because of how low info the American electorate is and how well funded their campaign is. He's not getting double digits but if they lean into a disinformation campaign they can definitely get up into the 5%+ range and swing the election to Trump. Maybe he'll run out of money, maybe he'll say some outlandishly stupid things (didn't stop Gary Johnson from hitting that threshold), maybe more detailed media coverage will effectively shine a light on his nuttiness. It's early, but there's a universe where he's a big problem.

I don't think RFK is stealing voters from Biden. Or at least he is stealing more voters for Trump than voters for Biden. The vast majority of people that would end up voting for RFK would have either voted for Trump or stayed home. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

i can see RFK jr getting the 'sophisticated republican' vote.  i picture the average educated texan suburbanite that has been raised on r alone for 40 years, finally venturing off the reservation a bit, but not enough to vote d.  that feels more likely than urban voter going d to RFK.   

[chainsaw 9866]

If Rs had run a sane candidate like McCain or Romney then RFK would have been more like a Green and drawn from Ds more than Rs. But RFK is going to draw crazies away from Trump, the people who want the crazy but not so much the racist.

[gmr548 16576]

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

I don't think RFK is stealing voters from Biden. Or at least he is stealing more voters for Trump than voters for Biden. The vast majority of people that would end up voting for RFK would have either voted for Trump or stayed home. 

Logically you'd think this based on the antivax and conspiracy theory stuff but polls show it's pretty evenly split, if not a little worse for Biden. I have no doubt some of that are disaffected and/or low info Democrats that will come home. How many don't? That's the million dollar question.

Trump's gotten 46% of the popular vote twice and is likely to fall in line with that again. His support has a low ceiling, but a high floor given the cult of personality. I don't imagine RFK ultimately peels off too many Trumpers because of the cult element. If RFK gets an electorally significant number of votes, it's because of defected D/independents, which hurts Biden.

[aggie08 21497]

1 hour ago, Macanudo said:

Karl Rove can suck it.  We're in this mess because of people like him.

100%. But how insane and terrifying is it that Karl fucking Rove is now a RINO? Where's Johnny Sack to tell us that it's the left that has moved to extremes, and the right has generally remained the same?

[Dahobbs 17534]

12 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Logically you'd think this based on the antivax and conspiracy theory stuff but polls show it's pretty evenly split, if not a little worse for Biden. I have no doubt some of that are disaffected and/or low info Democrats that will come home. How many don't? That's the million dollar question.

Trump's gotten 46% of the popular vote twice and is likely to fall in line with that again. His support has a low ceiling, but a high floor given the cult of personality. I don't imagine RFK ultimately peels off too many Trumpers because of the cult element. If RFK gets an electorally significant number of votes, it's because of defected D/independents, which hurts Biden.

You'd have to show me the polls you're referring to. But if they are the ones that had things like Trump getting the majority of the youth vote, 25% of the black vote, or RFK getting 10% of the vote, then I ain't worried about that trash. 

[Pato del Muerto 52489]

Trust all the polls!

[chainsaw 9866]

They should be strategizing and campaigning as if all those negative poll numbers are true.

[Bullneck 19079]

Welp, if it isn't Mr. Robocall himself.

[texasdago 7573]

Poll respondents... 

[Gatorubet 30219]

15 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Poll respondents... 

Dammit!! I thought there was no doxxing…

[Red Five 40854]

x x x 2 1 x

3 x x x x x 

x x x x x 

[babysdaddy 2721]

48 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Trust all the polls!

The polls are bad and anyone quoting them should feel bad.....unless they are moving towards Biden.  Then they are good and you should trust them.

[Ted Lange 16084]

 

 

[Brisketexan 105097]

9 minutes ago, Ted Lange said:

 

 

Fuck him anyway.  Supporting the GQP in lower-level races is just as bad.  Fascist piece of shit.

[Macanudo 12976]

2 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

I'm pretty sure people like him, who have become vocal never trumpers, most of them are mostly just pissed that their power within the Repulican party has been wildly diminished. Not that they actually give a fuck. 

Bingo.

I remember watching an interview with Bob Dole before the 2020 election and he was a Trumper.  He died in December 2021 and to my knowledge never spoke out about what happened on January 6th.   That the rank and file GOP leadership has pretty much stood on the sideline and let Trump continue to dismantle the party and our political process is so depressing.

[Guest]

 

 

 

 

Stuff like this gives me hope. Consistently, 20-25% of Republican primary voters are saying "Not Trump" despite the other candidates no longer running and Trump being the clear nominee. If even one quarter of that 20-25% that are voting against Trump in the primary end up sitting out and not voting for him (not even flipping to Biden), it completely changes the landscape.

The Midwest states are more solid blue. North Carolina is flipped blue. Florida, Ohio, & Texas still stay red, but are within a couple of points. 

If the "Never Trump" vote among Republican is larger than one quarter of that 20-25%, or some of these Republican primary voters actually vote Biden over Trump, then some much bigger states are in play. (Not likely in my opinion)

 

[texasdago 7573]

Can we just enjoy Haley beating DeSantis in FL?

[YGIFS 19450]

Well cross him off then! 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

4 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

I don't think RFK is stealing voters from Biden. Or at least he is stealing more voters for Trump than voters for Biden. The vast majority of people that would end up voting for RFK would have either voted for Trump or stayed home. 

Timely article on who RFK's folks are.  I like these sentences: if RFK is seen as the "outsider" for guys that were in search of outsiders up to now, that sounds like a formula for getting Trump voters (and indeed, this guy was a Trump voter)

Quote

Joe Biden, he said, was “so ingrained in the establishment and politics as usual,” while Trump “went against the grain on a lot of issues,” including wars and government regulation. But Inclan, a big bearded 39-year-old with tattoos on his hands, doesn’t want to have to make that choice again, which is why he’s now enthusiastically supporting Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/04/opinion/rfk-movement-trump.html?unlocked_article_code=1.h00.UK1q.wpto01N8q5Yt&smid=url-share

[Snake Diggity 4622]

4 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

I don't think RFK is stealing voters from Biden. Or at least he is stealing more voters for Trump than voters for Biden. The vast majority of people that would end up voting for RFK would have either voted for Trump or stayed home. 

 

5 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Timely article on who RFK's folks are.  I like these sentences: if RFK is seen as the "outsider" for guys that were in search of outsiders up to now, that sounds like a formula for getting Trump voters (and indeed, this guy was a Trump voter)

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/04/opinion/rfk-movement-trump.html?unlocked_article_code=1.h00.UK1q.wpto01N8q5Yt&smid=url-share

Anecdotally, there is only 1 RFK sign in my neighborhood, and it replaced a Trump sign.

[GhostOfTomJoad 9324]

Fuck him anyway.  Supporting the GQP in lower-level races is just as bad.  Fascist piece of shit.

This. And I'd love to see how much his wealth has increased during Biden's administration. Is he going to argue that Joe's policies have been bad for the economy while he's made billions over the last 3+ years?

[Chuckie Finster 22694]

21 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Timely article on who RFK's folks are.  I like these sentences: if RFK is seen as the "outsider" for guys that were in search of outsiders up to now, that sounds like a formula for getting Trump voters (and indeed, this guy was a Trump voter)

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/04/opinion/rfk-movement-trump.html?unlocked_article_code=1.h00.UK1q.wpto01N8q5Yt&smid=url-share

Everyone knows that Biden voters love defending January 6ers.

 

 

[DigglerontheHoof 21193]

All he's going to do is pull votes from dotard; let him tard it up. 

[Chuckie Finster 22694]

5 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

what polls are you talking about?

 

 

 

[chainsaw 9866]

3 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

 

 

That's nice to see but national polls don't make a shit due to the electoral college

[Js1 85313]

2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

That's nice to see but national polls don't make a shit due to the electoral college

State polls also lag national polls.  I'd like to see the state polls in the next few weeks. 

And unsurprising news - No Labels has abandoned fielding a 2024 campaign, after they got turned down by everyone.

[Chuckie Finster 22694]

6 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

That's nice to see but national polls don't make a shit due to the electoral college

The point isn't necessarily the totals, but the movement.  A few weeks ago, Trump was leading all these same national polls.

[chainsaw 9866]

9 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

The point isn't necessarily the totals, but the movement.  A few weeks ago, Trump was leading all these same national polls.

Yeah it's good news which is why we won't hear it

[Js1 85313]

19 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Yeah it's good news which is why we won't hear it

Also it's very unlikely Biden is up by 4 nationally (right in line with 2020 popular vote result) and losing every single swing state.  Which means - which polls are right? 

If Biden wins by 4 points nationally, it's going to be extremely similar to 2020, with maybe one or two states moving. Not 6 of them. 

[South Austin 52475]

Y’all, Biden’s gonna win all 56 states.

 

[TheStoicPaisano 9922]

 

[tx 3 putt 76911]

Free ad ….

 

[atomheartbevo 89656]

9 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Logically you'd think this based on the antivax and conspiracy theory stuff but polls show it's pretty evenly split, if not a little worse for Biden. I have no doubt some of that are disaffected and/or low info Democrats that will come home. How many don't? That's the million dollar question.

Trump's gotten 46% of the popular vote twice and is likely to fall in line with that again. His support has a low ceiling, but a high floor given the cult of personality. I don't imagine RFK ultimately peels off too many Trumpers because of the cult element. If RFK gets an electorally significant number of votes, it's because of defected D/independents, which hurts Biden.

Just as DeSantis did, RFK will peel off Trumpers who like a lot of what Trump says, but are not happy that he claims credit for the COVID vaccines and supported shutting down some stuff until he didn’t.  Those people admired that DeSantis went against the feds, tried to keep everything as wide open as he could, and has a surgeon general who keeps saying stupid shit against vaccines.