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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

By bolverk
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Pancho

Pancho 44858

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Deleting this tweet. .The more I look, the more it’s an operation and they all got their directive last night. 

This makes me even more convinced these college campus protests are set up by republicans working with foreign fucksticks

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Js1

Js1 85416

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7 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Sorry, but what was "tonight" all about, and who is this fucking guy?

Apparently Levar Stoney (mayor of Richmond) sicced the cops on protestors on VCU.  Which is all Biden's fault. 

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Js1

Js1 85416

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Is it rounding or do 3% just go “oh well I knew who I wanted between Trump and Biden but RFK makes it difficult, so now I’m undecided?”

He’s also not going to get 11%. 

Edited by Js1
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wildcat09

wildcat09 29355

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3 hours ago, Js1 said:

Is it rounding or do 3% just go “oh well I knew who I wanted between Trump and Biden but RFK makes it difficult, so now I’m undecided?”

He’s also not going to get 11%. 

Kennedy won't get more than 5% and he'll pull more from Trump than Biden. 

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Sawbonz

Sawbonz 27578

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11 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

Care to elaborate on this?

Go to npr and look where Biden made gains (college educated white males esp) and where he lost ground. If RFK gets >5% of the vote I’ll be shocked. If he gets 11% I’ll eat my hat

Edited by Sawbonz
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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52526

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12 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

I think the most telling statistic is that Biden is up by 12 with the oldest voters and is ahead on voters > 45; Trump won both groups in 2020

Trump will get all that back from minorities and the yutes!

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Js1

Js1 85416

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1 hour ago, Sawbonz said:

I think the most telling statistic is that Biden is up by 12 with the oldest voters and is ahead on voters > 45; Trump won both groups in 2020

Maybe the GOP should stop threatening social security

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Slacks

Slacks 6821

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On 4/25/2024 at 6:19 PM, Js1 said:

“Nobody cares about football” says guy who started a failed football league 

That's how he knows nobody cares.

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19452

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17 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

 

 

 

I often think of that scene in the series finale of "Chernobyl" when KBG Director Chebrikov is debriefing Legasov.  "When the bullet hits your skull, what will it matter why?"  

When their family members not born on U.S. soil begin being deported, or their student visas expire and they are expunged from the United States, and Islamic rights are slowly eroded away by Stephen Miller and his cartel......will they wonder 'why' or 'how could this be happening'?  Life is full of choices and opinions and positions.  Until your skull is bleeding and incapable of rationalizing your choice.  Have at it young people.  Because you're really not going to like what happens next.  

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45691

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6 hours ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

The utes are going to hand the election to dotard.  Fucking idiots. 

I don't think this will occur.  They are mad now, but come November, I think they'll do the right thing and live to fight another day.  If not, oh well, we had a decent run.

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19452

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The EC margin could be 1 vote or 501, Trump is gonna contest it no matter what.  There's probably a sweet spot in there where you don't have to worry about one state's leg/supreme court throwing out Biden's win.  But no matter the outcome or type of loss, he continues the grift, incites violence, and pouts daily on social and cable media.  They take the streets to shoot people celebrating his EC loss.  And I develop an addiction to tequila/crystal meth soaked suppositories.  

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19452

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9 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

Trump will lose by >5% We’re just killing time arguing otherwise.  

I hope your forecast comes to fruition.  But we are not killing time arguing otherwise.  Some us are building up a tolerance for psychotropic drugs, absinthe soaked marshmallows for anal insertion, bathtub gin, crack, and huffing stain remover cans.  This is part of our training.  

Somewhat related question---is it safe to eat your own gall-bladder?  Asking for a friend.  In exchange for 6 grams of blow on election night.  I bet I could probably snort an entire bota box of pinot grigio.

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Make em eat Taco Bell

Make em eat Taco Bell 1549

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still very early , but keep an eye on him.   Media says he's 9-1 , but 2000 was robbed, so he's 10-0. 

 

He has been called the Nostradamus of US presidential elections. Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted the result of nine of the past 10 (and even the one that got away, in 2000, he insists was stolen from Al Gore). But now he is gearing up for perhaps his greatest challenge: Joe Biden v Donald Trump II

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/apr/26/allan-lichtman-prediction-presidential-election#:~:text=He has been called,Biden v Donald Trump II.

 

‘A lot would have to go wrong for Biden to lose’: can Allan Lichtman predict the 2024 election?

 

They came up with 13 true/false questions and a decision rule: if six or more keys went against the White House party, it would lose. If fewer than six went against it, it would win. These are the 13 keys, as summarised by AU’s website:

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.

4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.

5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.

6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.

10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.

11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.

12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

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YGIFS

YGIFS 19452

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His model does actually make a good amount of sense.  But the wildcard he's not accounting for is we haven't had an incumbent lose and then get nominated by a major party to come back and run a 3rd time in the modern era (and by that I mean centuries).  All bets are off this time.  I'm not terribly worried about RFK swinging any particular state to Trump, save for possibly Pennsylvania.  

We're simply in uncharted waters.  We're not special nor historic, just living through a weird time is all.  The entirety of this is making enough middle-pack Trump voters to throw their hands in the air in a few states and just say, "You know what?  fuck it, I just can't with this fucking guy anymore.  I hate defending him."  Or again, the whole Trump drops dead thing is pretty alluring as well.  

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Js1

Js1 85416

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25 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

What is the threshold for the abortion rights amendment on the Florida ballot?

60% I think. But it will juice turnout regardless 

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GopherRock

GopherRock 1765

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24 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

What is the threshold for the abortion rights amendment on the Florida ballot?

60.

IMHO this measure passing would be the biggest upset of the cycle. 

The bigger question: Does the abortion ballot measure have enough coattails to knock off Trump or Rick Scott?

I could buy Georgia going back to Trump, if for no other reason than I'm skeptical of a state in the deep Confederacy voting for Biden twice. But Arizona isn't going red.

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Red Five

Red Five 40862

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24 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

National moods move left and right by a percent or two every year. Both of those states were razor close last time. 

I think a lot of female moods will drift Biden's way by more than a point or two in Arizona. 

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16593

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We are slap in the middle of primary season here in Georgia, just got walk up unsolicited Republican stumpers at the door for the first time.  My wife is talking to them, it's not going well for them.  All I caught of her conversation thus far was "my candidate isn't on trial for paying off a porn star, insurrection, election fraud and racketeering.  How about yours?"  

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89732

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5 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

National moods move left and right by a percent or two every year. Both of those states were razor close last time. 

5 hours ago, Red Five said:

I think a lot of female moods will drift Biden's way by more than a point or two in Arizona. 

Yeah, the fact that the Arizona legislature is trying to get the 1864 stuff taken care of while Kari Lake and others are pushing to keep it is not going to help Trump.

 

 

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