2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Js1 82948]

1 minute ago, hornmpa96 said:

Agreed - I’m hoping the Biden campaign specifically reminds Michigan voters of Trump’s views of Israel/Palestine. 

Right. Haley was in Israel and wrote “finish the job” on Israeli bombs. That’s what they’d be ending up with if they don’t vote 

[atomheartbevo 88913]

3 hours ago, Sawbonz said:

So what issues/demographic change/ or other tangible issues can you point to that indicate any of those close states Will flip to Trump?

On a side note: Abortion is running on the same ticket as Trump, and he’s quite proud that he did that.

3 hours ago, chainsaw said:

If Biden's voters' enthusiasm craters, as it looks to be over the genocide in Gaza, then any of those states could be in play.

The only people that give a shit about Gaza are either already at the protests, are bitching on message boards, or watching Fox News,  it won’t move the needle 6 months from now.

[Biff Tannen 45013]

Not really sure where to put this, but wanted it to get some traction. I’m very biased when it comes to Ken Burns, but he is one of our absolute American treasures. My family knows him and have been involved with a couple of his documentaries. I wish more Americans would listen to this speech, but I doubt most have the capacity to take 20 minutes out of their lives to listen to what every citizen should hear. 
 

 

[Pato del Muerto 52035]

2 hours ago, Macanudo said:

I only own two guns, a short barrel AR and a Walther PDP but have 9 mags in total (six 30 round AR mags and three 18 round Walthers mags.   I'm not even sure off the top of my head how much ammo I have but it's somewhere north of 1,000 total between 9mm and  .223/5.56.  2 months ago, I hadn't owned a gun in over a decade.   I might just buy another 2-3 between now and November.  

Really celebrating the new job in style.

also you need to add a decent caliber bolt action hunting rifle. Sometimes spray and pray isn’t the best option. 

Edited May 29 by Pato del Muerto

[Surly Bevo 24463]

40 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Not really sure where to put this, but wanted it to get some traction. I’m very biased when it comes to Ken Burns, but he is one of our absolute American treasures. My family knows him and have been involved with a couple of his documentaries. I wish more Americans would listen to this speech, but I doubt most have the capacity to take 20 minutes out of their lives to listen to what every citizen should hear. 
 

 

That was a banger

[bolverk 29035]

1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

Not really sure where to put this, but wanted it to get some traction. I’m very biased when it comes to Ken Burns, but he is one of our absolute American treasures. My family knows him and have been involved with a couple of his documentaries. I wish more Americans would listen to this speech, but I doubt most have the capacity to take 20 minutes out of their lives to listen to what every citizen should hear. 
 

 

Thank you for sharing this.

[Willfully Horn 7854]

Well, alright, Mr Burns! 

[Art Vandelay 1705]

Such a great speech by Burns. Thanks for posting @Biff Tannen

[The Royal We 3051]

Burns has a way with words. He managed to tell people to stop being fucking idiots and vote without offending all but the most delicate of snowflakes.

Thanks @Biff Tannen

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11508]

“It just rhymes George Lucas is supposed to have said.”

[Fudge Nuggets 18899]

12 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

If they stay home and somehow help him win, they better not bitch when they get rounded up by his administration.

I'm to the point that if someone is in a marginalized group that MAGA has publicly attacked and they vote for him anyway; I hope all sorts of evil, vile, bad shit happens to them.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11508]

Republican spending is starting I'm seeing.  My twitter is filled with right wing ads.

[Bateshorn 9542]

Just a reminder: Kerry and Romney were leading at this point in 2004 and 2012. By all means, make sure your local firearms dealer is able to put a new motor on the wake boat, but also, bit of moderation. 

[pyrohornIII 4756]

23 hours ago, Red Five said:

The problem is willful ignorance. Half the country thinks we're in a recession. Half the country thinks unemployment is at a 50 year high. 

Saw where Trump leads people who don't follow politics at all by 26 points. There's your problem. 

There are a bunch of MAGA types who aren't ignorant.  It's just that they choose to remain ignorant when it comes to this stuff.  And on top of that they are arrogant about it.  

18 hours ago, softlynow said:

Even if you think Biden wins, you should be amplifying the Trump could/will win message.

The easiest way for Trump to win is a lack of a sense of urgency. Clinton made a bunch of mistakes in 2016. But Trump looking unelectable, IMHO, had to affect turnout and allow for some folks to feel OK about "sending a message" and voting for Stein or even Johnson. Over 4.5% of voters chose someone other than Trump or Clinton. In 2020 that dropped to about 1.8%. 2012 saw about the same percentage vote for neither Obama nor Romney.

Trump could win should be all you say to anyone you know who understands the stakes of this election or otherwise will not for for Trump. They need to be scared to stay home or vote for RFK or some other joke candidate.

 

I agree with this.  I think something is coming out of the Biden campaign that is sowing seeds of doubt to a) increase donations and b) fight apathy.  Here's an article in Politico yesterday.   Of course, most is attributed to anonymous sources:

Quote

Dems in full-blown ‘freakout’ over Biden
One adviser to major Democratic donors keeps a running list of reasons Biden could lose.

There have been few moments in Joe Biden’s term as president that haven’t been second-guessed. | Susan Walsh/AP

By CHRISTOPHER CADELAGO, SALLY GOLDENBERG and ELENA SCHNEIDER

05/28/2024 05:00 AM EDT

A pervasive sense of fear has settled in at the highest levels of the Democratic Party over President Joe Biden’s reelection prospects, even among officeholders and strategists who had previously expressed confidence about the coming battle with Donald Trump.

All year, Democrats had been on a joyless and exhausting grind through the 2024 election. But now, nearly five months from the election, anxiety has morphed into palpable trepidation, according to more than a dozen party leaders and operatives. And the gap between what Democrats will say on TV or in print, and what they’ll text their friends, has only grown as worries have surged about Biden’s prospects.

“You don’t want to be that guy who is on the record saying we’re doomed, or the campaign’s bad or Biden’s making mistakes. Nobody wants to be that guy,” said a Democratic operative in close touch with the White House and granted anonymity to speak freely.

But Biden’s stubbornly poor polling and the stakes of the election “are creating the freakout,” he said.

“This isn’t, ‘Oh my God, Mitt Romney might become president.’ It’s ‘Oh my God, the democracy might end.’”

Despite everything, Trump is running ahead of Biden in most battleground states. He raised far more money in April, and the landscape may only become worse for Democrats, with Trump’s hush-money trial concluding and another — this one involving the president’s son — set to begin in Delaware.

The concern has metastasized in recent days as Trump jaunted to some of the country’s most liberal territories, including New Jersey and New York, to woo Hispanic and Black voters as he boasted, improbably, that he would win in those areas.

While he’s long lagged Biden in cash on hand, Trump’s fundraising outpaced the president’s by $25 million last month, and included a record-setting $50.5 million haul from an event in Palm Beach, Florida. One adviser to major Democratic Party donors provided a running list that has been shared with funders of nearly two dozen reasons why Biden could lose, ranging from immigration and high inflation to the president’s age, the unpopularity of Vice President Kamala Harris and the presence of third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

“Donors ask me on an hourly basis about what I think,” the adviser said, calling it “so much easier to show them, so while they read it, I can pour a drink.”

The adviser added, “The list of why we ‘could’ win is so small I don’t even need to keep the list on my phone.”

Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey implored a room of high-dollar donors and local Democratic leaders to “think long and hard” about the stakes of the election. | Domenico Stinellis/AP

On the day after news broke that Biden had trailed Trump in fundraising last month, Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey raised the pressure on donors as she introduced the president to a crowd of 300.

The cluster of fundraising events Biden attended in Boston that day were expected to bring in more than $6 million for his political operation. But Healey said that wasn’t good enough.

“To those of you who opened up your wallets, thank you,” said Healey, a Democrat in her first term. “We’d like you to open them up a little bit more and to find more patriots — more patriots who believe in this country, who recognize and understand the challenge presented at this time.”

Laughter rippled through the room. But Healey’s voice turned serious. With unusual urgency for Healey, the governor implored the room of high-dollar donors and local Democratic leaders to “think long and hard” about the stakes of the election.

There have been few moments in Biden’s term as president that haven’t been second-guessed, and his aides have made sport of sneering at grim predictions, compiling dossiers of headlines and clips in which the president was underestimated. Biden campaign aides and allies point to some positive polls, including in the battlegrounds, and Trump’s comparative lack of campaigning and infrastructure in the key states, including staff, organizing programs and advertising.

Biden claims Trump is going after DEI nationwide

A Biden campaign adviser granted anonymity to speak freely stressed that the president’s team never made any indication that Trump’s hush-money trial would help — or hurt — him. Instead, the adviser contended that Trump will be forced to defend cutting back abortion rights, attacking democracy and advancing corporate interests as president.

 “Trump’s photo-ops and PR stunts may get under the skin of some very serious D.C. people as compelling campaigning, but they will do nothing to win over the voters that will decide this election,” Biden campaign spokesperson Kevin Munoz told POLITICO. “The work we do every day on the ground and on the airwaves in our battleground states — to talk about how President Biden is fighting for the middle class against the corporate greed that’s keeping prices high, and highlight Donald Trump’s anti-American campaign for revenge and retribution and abortion bans — is the work that will again secure us the White House.”

Biden supporters who remain optimistic say they’d rather be him than Trump, before rallying around abortion and issues of reproductive rights, which Rep. Dan Kildee, a Michigan Democrat, called “a fundamental game-changer.”

“We have to run a campaign, where honestly, we drive home the message that Donald Trump takes us back to the 19th century. Biden takes us further into the 21st century,” Kildee said.

He did not remark on whether such a campaign is being run, or run to his satisfaction.

“A lot can happen between now and then,” acknowledged Rep. Ann Kuster, a Democrat from New Hampshire, who is retiring after the fall election. She, too, pointed to eroding abortion rights under the conservative-led Supreme Court remade by Trump. “I know a significant number of voters are going to be motivated by the Dobbs decision.”

But Democratic critics of the campaign’s approach — while agreeing that abortion should be a winning issue — said they’re challenged when pressed by friends to make the case for why Biden will win.

“There’s still a path to win this, but they don’t look like a campaign that’s embarking on that path right now,” said Pete Giangreco, a longtime Democratic strategist who’s worked on multiple presidential campaigns. “If the frame of this race is, ‘What was better, the 3.5 years under Biden or four years under Trump,’ we lose that every day of the week and twice on Sunday.”

In the swing state of Michigan, Democratic state Rep. Laurie Pohutsky suggested Biden’s standing is so tenuous that down-ballot Democrats can’t rely in November “on the top of the ticket to pull us along.”

“In 2020, there was enough energy to get Donald Trump out and there were other things on the ballot that brought young people out in subsequent elections.”

She said, “That’s not the case this time. I worry that because we’ve had four years with a stable White House, particularly young voters don’t feel that sense of urgency and might not remember how disastrous 2017 was right after the Trump administration took over.”

Whatever the Biden campaign has been doing over the past two months — and it’s a lot of activity, including $25 million in swing-state ad spending, according to AdImpact — it has had only a limited effect. According to FiveThirtyEight, Biden’s average job-approval rating on March 7, the date of his State of the Union Address, was 38.1 percent. As of Friday, it’s 38.4 percent.

And his standing against Trump has also changed little. On April 22, the day Trump’s criminal trial began, the presumptive GOP nominee held a 0.3-point lead in national polls, according to FiveThirtyEight. Trump is up about a point since then, currently leading Biden by 1.4 points in the FiveThirtyEight average.

Asked about polling, Munoz said: “The only metric that will define the success of this campaign is Election Day.”

Trump, meanwhile, has already started his incursion into safe blue states. His campaign’s psychological warfare in New York, California and New Jersey — where House districts will determine control of Congress’ lower chamber — is spiking Democrats’ already-elevated blood pressure.

“New York Democrats need to wake up,” said Manhattan Borough President Mark Levine. “The number of people in New York, including people of color that I come across who are saying positive things about Trump, is alarming.”

Biden’s weaker numbers bear that out. A Siena College poll released Wednesday showed Biden leading Trump in New York by only 9 points — 47 to 38 percent among registered voters. Four years ago, Biden won the state by 23 points. The president is under water with every demographic delineated in the poll — other than Black voters. Fifty-three percent of Latinos and 54 percent of whites reported having an unfavorable opinion of him. To that end, Biden released TV and radio ads in the Empire State on Thursday, ahead of Trump’s campaign rally in the Bronx.

Levine has been something of a Paul Revere in New York, sounding alarms two years ago when a Trump-aligned Republican gubernatorial candidate, Lee Zeldin, appeared to be gaining on Kathy Hochul, the moderate Democratic incumbent. Hochul narrowly held him off.

“I’m worried it’s going to be a 2022 situation, where everyone wakes up in the last seven weeks and has to scramble,” Levine said of his state, which hasn’t swung to the GOP since Ronald Reagan in 1980.

“The number of people in New York, including people of color that I come across who are saying positive things about Trump, is alarming,” said Manhattan Borough President Mark Levine. | Kena Betancur/AFP via Getty Images

This cycle, Democrats also have to contend with the war in Ukraine and the conflict between Israel and Hamas, which has deeply divided their ranks and contributed to a sense of chaos. Rep. Ritchie Torres, a New York Democrat known for his ardent defense of Israel, was similarly concerned for his party, though he pointed to the higher cost of groceries and goods that started during the pandemic and has yet to abate.

“The greatest political challenge confronting the president starts with an “i,” but it’s not Israel, it’s inflation,” Torres said. “The cost of living is a challenge that we have to figure out how to manage.”

He said Biden should focus on issues around affordability and continue to tout his success in capping insulin costs in areas with high rates of diabetes, like his Bronx district.

“The election is more competitive than it should be, given the wretchedness of who Donald Trump is,” he said. “In a properly functioning democracy, Donald Trump should have no viable path to the presidency. The fact of a competitive race is cause for concern.”

Trump has railed against blue-state officials, starting with the justice system in New York. In California, he dispatched his daughter-in-law, Lara, and one of his sons, Eric, to hold up the West Coast’s Democratic heavyweight as a cautionary tale.

“I’m sorry you have to live in communism,” Eric Trump said Wednesday at the Stampede, a country music venue in Temecula, an inland community between Los Angeles and San Diego. Trump casually dismissed California Democrat Gavin Newsom as the nation’s “worst governor.”

“Make no mistake,” Trump said, “there is a war happening in this country.”

The elder Trump is set to appear in early June at the San Francisco fundraiser hosted by tech investor David Sacks and his wife, Jacqueline, a clothing brand executive, along with venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya.

Palihapitiya’s past political donations run the gamut, from Elizabeth Warren to a super PAC supporting Kennedy Jr. He also gave to the recall committee against Newsom in 2021 and briefly considered running for governor. Silicon Valley’s red pilling has brought even more unwanted national attention on issues of open-air drug use, homeless encampments and gangs of thieves who ransack retail stores across the Bay Area.

And as in New York, California Democrats are bracing for more incoming from Trump.

“San Francisco has changed with the taxpayers, the job creators, the tech CEOs who want to engage with the city and its politics,” said Harmeet Dhillon, the RNC committee member from California.

Dhillon was reflecting on her run-ins with Democrats in the city, where she spent years leading the local GOP before her law firm represented Trump in legal fights to remain on state ballots. Few Democrats are willing to confide in Dhillon about their fears, she conceded, but no one is sharing a sense of enthusiasm for Biden, either.

“The most diplomatic thing I hear from Democrats is, ‘Oh my God, are these the choices we have for president?’”

Lisa Kashinsky, Steven Shepard, Daniella Diaz and Nicholas Wu contributed to this report.

Dems in full-blown ‘freakout’ over Biden - POLITICO

[Zonahorn 7921]

 

WE ARE SO FUCKING BACK

[Zonahorn 7921]

 

And no 269-269 doomsday tie

[David Dennison 17754]

15% for Junior?

EL OH EL

[Pato del Muerto 52035]

N of 600 and 400.  Maybe for a portion of Nebraska that’s sufficient. 

[Incredulity 11160]

From the Politico article

Quote

“The number of people in New York, including people of color that I come across who are saying positive things about Trump, is alarming,” said Manhattan Borough President Mark Levine.

[C-Man 26617]

CNN with some harrowing poll numbers a few moments ago with regard to Biden's slipping popularity with black/hispanic votes. Down from 81% in 2020 to 70% in 2024. Trump is up from 10% to 21% with those same voters. Black voters 50+ are 85% for Biden, 8% for Trump. Under-50 black voters are 64% Biden, 27% Trump. Breaking that down to the battleground state level, the EC flips from 303-235 in favor of Biden to 291-247 for Trump, according to Five Thirty Eight.

(This was an Average of CNN/SSRS, NBC News, ABC News/IPSOS and Pew Research.)

Somebody please tell me we can disregard all of the above. Please.

[Chuckie Finster 22285]

10 minutes ago, C-Man said:

CNN with some harrowing poll numbers a few moments ago with regard to Biden's slipping popularity with black/hispanic votes. Down from 81% in 2020 to 70% in 2024. Trump is up from 10% to 21% with those same voters. Black voters 50+ are 85% for Biden, 8% for Trump. Under-50 black voters are 64% Biden, 27% Trump. Breaking that down to the battleground state level, the EC flips from 303-235 in favor of Biden to 291-247 for Trump, according to Five Thirty Eight.

(This was an Average of CNN/SSRS, NBC News, ABC News/IPSOS and Pew Research.)

Somebody please tell me we can disregard all of the above. Please.

 

Poll nerds will tell you to ignore crosstabs, then go on CNN and devote entire segments to them.

[Texas73 419]

In the Nevada poll, when it was Biden vs Trump 96% gave a preference but when the included RFK 86% gave a preference. Makes no sense. 

[Fudge Nuggets 18899]

31 minutes ago, C-Man said:

CNN with some harrowing poll numbers a few moments ago with regard to Biden's slipping popularity with black/hispanic votes. Down from 81% in 2020 to 70% in 2024. Trump is up from 10% to 21% with those same voters. Black voters 50+ are 85% for Biden, 8% for Trump. Under-50 black voters are 64% Biden, 27% Trump. Breaking that down to the battleground state level, the EC flips from 303-235 in favor of Biden to 291-247 for Trump, according to Five Thirty Eight.

(This was an Average of CNN/SSRS, NBC News, ABC News/IPSOS and Pew Research.)

Somebody please tell me we can disregard all of the above. Please.

If those numbers turn out to be correct and Trump wins, he will deport all Mexican-Americans. We will save on yard care costs by bringing back slavery.  This is the message.

[Zonahorn 7921]

50 minutes ago, C-Man said:

CNN with some harrowing poll numbers a few moments ago with regard to Biden's slipping popularity with black/hispanic votes. Down from 81% in 2020 to 70% in 2024. Trump is up from 10% to 21% with those same voters. Black voters 50+ are 85% for Biden, 8% for Trump. Under-50 black voters are 64% Biden, 27% Trump. Breaking that down to the battleground state level, the EC flips from 303-235 in favor of Biden to 291-247 for Trump, according to Five Thirty Eight.

(This was an Average of CNN/SSRS, NBC News, ABC News/IPSOS and Pew Research.)

Somebody please tell me we can disregard all of the above. Please.

Disregard all of it. Just get organized and vote

[HornOnTheBayou 8852]

28 minutes ago, Texas73 said:

In the Nevada poll, when it was Biden vs Trump 96% gave a preference but when the included RFK 86% gave a preference. Makes no sense. 

It makes sense when you consider more choices leads to paralysis. If you offer me ice cream and my only options are chocolate and vanilla, I'm going chocolate 100% of the time, because vanilla is a ridiculous flavor. However, if you offer me vanilla, chocolate, or strawberry, then I'm going to have to think on it. I'll choose either chocolate or strawberry, but it'll depend on what mood I'm in at that moment.

Now if you're saying it doesn't make sense, because no one in their right mind should ever consider voting for RFK Jr, well then yes, I agree with you.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11508]

13 minutes ago, HornOnTheBayou said:

vanilla is a ridiculous flavor.

[Zonahorn 7921]

 

 

[HornOnTheBayou 8852]

6 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Vanilla ice cream brings nothing to the table. It's simply the vehicle that delivers the topping flavor. It's like spaghetti in the way.

[Snake Diggity 4548]

Georgia is very easy to see going back to Trump, and I consider that likely.  There is too much smoke that black voters are not as energized for Biden this round, and that is what carried him in GA.  That gets Trump to 251.  PA gets Trump over the line but it’s hard to see that happening and hard to see Michigan going for Trump either.  To me, Trump’s path is to win GA and then get Wisconsin and Arizona close enough to have the Supreme Court decide for him.  It’s pretty unlikely.  But not impossible.  I would say it’s more likely Biden wins 2020 plus NC than it is Trump gets to 270.

[Zonahorn 7921]

4 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Georgia is very easy to see going back to Trump, and I consider that likely.  There is too much smoke that black voters are not as energized for Biden this round, and that is what carried him in GA.  That gets Trump to 251.  PA gets Trump over the line but it’s hard to see that happening and hard to see Michigan going for Trump either.  To me, Trump’s path is to win GA and then get Wisconsin and Arizona close enough to have the Supreme Court decide for him.  It’s pretty unlikely.  But not impossible.  I would say it’s more likely Biden wins 2020 plus NC than it is Trump gets to 270.

Wrong

[Zonahorn 7921]

 

[Red Five 40274]

6 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

 

I thought even Mother Teresa wouldn't be able to beat these charges. He can't even keep track of his nonsensical bullshit.

[BamaATL 16007]

2 hours ago, C-Man said:

CNN with some harrowing poll numbers a few moments ago with regard to Biden's slipping popularity with black/hispanic votes. Down from 81% in 2020 to 70% in 2024. Trump is up from 10% to 21% with those same voters. Black voters 50+ are 85% for Biden, 8% for Trump. Under-50 black voters are 64% Biden, 27% Trump. Breaking that down to the battleground state level, the EC flips from 303-235 in favor of Biden to 291-247 for Trump, according to Five Thirty Eight.

(This was an Average of CNN/SSRS, NBC News, ABC News/IPSOS and Pew Research.)

Somebody please tell me we can disregard all of the above. Please.

CNN wants this to go right down to the wire for ratings purposes.  They aren't the news, they infotainment.  Any people can be slap full of cherry picked data, and it's not their best interest to be honest if it hurts their ratings.  So there's that.  

[Zonahorn 7921]

3 minutes ago, Red Five said:

I thought even Mother Teresa wouldn't be able to beat these charges. He can't even keep track of his nonsensical bullshit.

Dementia and drugs are a bad combo

[BamaATL 16007]

42 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Georgia is very easy to see going back to Trump, and I consider that likely.  There is too much smoke that black voters are not as energized for Biden this round, and that is what carried him in GA.  That gets Trump to 251.  PA gets Trump over the line but it’s hard to see that happening and hard to see Michigan going for Trump either.  To me, Trump’s path is to win GA and then get Wisconsin and Arizona close enough to have the Supreme Court decide for him.  It’s pretty unlikely.  But not impossible.  I would say it’s more likely Biden wins 2020 plus NC than it is Trump gets to 270.

I wouldn't count out Georgia.  We've had a positive growth rate in metro Atlanta and a continuing shrinking of rural Georgia since 2020 (Covid, normal mortality, rural exodus).  Turnout will still be key, particularly in Dekalb, Fulton, and Clayton Counties.  I like our chances.  

[Longhorn_Fan68 33708]

11 minutes ago, Red Five said:

I thought even Mother Teresa wouldn't be able to beat these charges. He can't even keep track of his nonsensical bullshit.

when literally everything out of his mouth is a lie, he doesn't have to nor can he keep track of the lies. And if anyone calls out the lie, he'll say they never said it. The requisite number of people will believe it and he'll get away with the lie like he always does. At least in the court of public opinion.

[A-Tex Devil 2412]

52 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Georgia is very easy to see going back to Trump, and I consider that likely.  There is too much smoke that black voters are not as energized for Biden this round, and that is what carried him in GA.  That gets Trump to 251.  PA gets Trump over the line but it’s hard to see that happening and hard to see Michigan going for Trump either.  To me, Trump’s path is to win GA and then get Wisconsin and Arizona close enough to have the Supreme Court decide for him.  It’s pretty unlikely.  But not impossible.  I would say it’s more likely Biden wins 2020 plus NC than it is Trump gets to 270.

47 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

Wrong

 

Yeah..... Biden outpaced expectations in the counties surrounding Fulton.  The suburban college educated apathetic citizen that Trump woke up with his incompetence first term needs to be reminded why they bothered voting for the first time in a decade in 2020.  

[Zonahorn 7921]

17 minutes ago, A-Tex Devil said:

 

Yeah..... Biden outpaced expectations in the counties surrounding Fulton.  The suburban college educated apathetic citizen that Trump woke up with his incompetence first term needs to be reminded why they bothered voting for the first time in a decade in 2020.  

Joe Biden is in no universe losing black voters to Donald Trump either

Edited May 29 by Zonahorn

[A-Tex Devil 2412]

6 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

Joe Biden is in no universe losing black voters to Donald Trump

Sorry... wasn't clear.  We are in agreement.  My point is it wasn't just the black turnout that won Georgia for Biden.  In fact, I'd suggest it was secondary to Biden winning the Atlanta suburbs.

[Zonahorn 7921]

9 minutes ago, A-Tex Devil said:

Sorry... wasn't clear.  We are in agreement.  My point is it wasn't just the black turnout that won Georgia for Biden.  In fact, I'd suggest it was secondary to Biden winning the Atlanta suburbs.

See edit, was trying to build off your point. In order for Joe Biden to win Georgia he needs black voters and college educated suburbanites. Both groups are going to overwhelmingly support him.

[David Dennison 17754]

3 hours ago, C-Man said:

CNN with some harrowing poll numbers a few moments ago with regard to Biden's slipping popularity with black/hispanic votes. Down from 81% in 2020 to 70% in 2024. Trump is up from 10% to 21% with those same voters. Black voters 50+ are 85% for Biden, 8% for Trump. Under-50 black voters are 64% Biden, 27% Trump. Breaking that down to the battleground state level, the EC flips from 303-235 in favor of Biden to 291-247 for Trump, according to Five Thirty Eight.

(This was an Average of CNN/SSRS, NBC News, ABC News/IPSOS and Pew Research.)

Somebody please tell me we can disregard all of the above. Please.

You can disregard all of the above.

[C-Man 26617]

56 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

when literally everything out of his mouth is a lie, he doesn't have to nor can he keep track of the lies. And if anyone calls out the lie, he'll say they never said it. The requisite number of people will believe it and he'll get away with the lie like he always does. At least in the court of public opinion.

See Trump telling donors this past weekend that he’d have bombed Russia and China by now.

[David Dennison 17754]

1 minute ago, C-Man said:

See Trump telling donors this past weekend that he’d have bombed Russia and China by now.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33708]

13 minutes ago, C-Man said:

See Trump telling donors this past weekend that he’d have bombed Russia and China by now.

which is an interesting departure from "I would have had this negotiated and over in a few days." lol, what a maroon

[Red Five 40274]

It used to be, back in the day, that if you said that you would have started World War 3 by now, you might lose some support. Like, all of it. 

 

[Gatorubet 29538]

3 hours ago, David Dennison said:

You can disregard all of the above.

To that question, there was just a piece on MSNBC where a pollster describes how voters who almost never vote and who did not voted in 2020 are going bigly for Trump when polled.

The question is, will the non-voters show up in 2024 when the highest turnout voter turnout in history in 2020 found those very same people staying home.

I have a suspicion that the RNC becoming a Trump entity that will not spend money on stupid things - like local offices in important states to get out the vote - might have an impact.

I think it is all gloomy, but maybe not as terrifying if the pills show you’re losing the people who don’t vote anyway. Naturally, this will be terrifying if these assholes do vote.

[Chuckie Finster 22285]

“Biden is no different than Trump when it comes to Israel!!!!!!”

[Biff Tannen 45013]

1 hour ago, Chuckie Finster said:

“Biden is no different than Trump when it comes to Israel!!!!!!”
 

Very American.

[Biff Tannen 45013]

1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

 

The question is, will the non-voters show up in 2024 when the highest turnout voter turnout in history in 2020 found those very same people staying home.

If this does occur, it would defy all logic and natural laws.  I think all of these people are full of shit and just like to stir the pot.  And if not, well, we had an ok run.

[bolverk 29035]

Op-Ed from the NYTimes's Charles Blow on how Trump's dangling of pardons to some hip hop artists has built their support and might be influencing some of their fans:

How a Coterie of Rappers Became Trump Evangelists

One oddity of Donald Trump’s Bronx rally last week was when the former president invited two rappers — Michael Williams, who performs as Sheff G, and Tegan Chambers, who performs as Sleepy Hallow — to the stage.

Both rappers are facing felony charges. And that fact actually makes their appearance at the rally make sense — it tracks with Trump’s seemingly transactional relationship with several hip-hop artists, a history of which I have no doubt Sheff G and Sleepy Hallow are aware.

For instance, just days before the 2020 election, the rapper Lil Wayne, who was weeks away from pleading guilty to a federal gun charge that could have resulted in significant prison time, met with Trump in Florida. Afterward, Wayne posted a picture of the two of them together flashing thumbs-ups and reading, “Besides what he’s done so far with criminal reform, the Platinum Plan is going to give the community real ownership.”

The Platinum Plan was Trump’s Black economic empowerment proposal that was announced toward the end of that year’s presidential race. In what certainly looked a lot like a quid pro quo, Trump pardoned Wayne as he was leaving office.

Trump has had an interesting relationship with hip-hop. For decades, particularly during the “get money” period of the genre, rappers would often name check Trump in their songs.

As the journalist and radio host Farai Chideya says in the new Hulu documentary “Hip-Hop and the White House”: “There are definitely aspects of Trump’s personality and actions that call to the baser nature of hip-hop.” She hypothesizes that at least in the past, the misogynistic cohort within hip-hop may have looked at Trump’s unrestrained sexism and saw it as aspirational.

But it was the hustler-cum-gangster vibe of Trump, particularly with his ostentatious displays of wealth, that endeared him to many in the rap community.

In the documentary, the rapper Waka Flocka Flame goes as far as saying that Trump was more like Tupac Shakur — a monumental figure in hip-hop — than Barack Obama was. That notion is, of course, highly offensive, since Shakur was the son of a Black Panther, grew up around the Panthers, and the organization’s ethos influenced his music and thinking.

But in the run-up to Trump’s first presidential race, in which he amplified birther conspiracy theories, questioning Obama’s citizenship and legitimacy, Black America was reminded of Trump’s history of racist words and deeds and his name became persona non grata in most of the hip-hop world.

Then Trump found a cheap and easy way to win favor with a few big names, (and not just in the hip-hop community): the apparent dangling of presidential pardons.
And the efficacy of this approach is almost undeniable.

In 2018, when Kanye West made a spectacle of himself in the Oval Office — wearing a MAGA hat and hugging Trump — he brought along an attorney representing Larry Hoover, a Chicago gang kingpin serving several life sentences. The meeting included discussions of prison reform and the effects of crime in Chicago, but West also argued for clemency for Hoover, saying at one point, “It’s very important for me to get Hoover out.”

Trump didn’t pardon Hoover, but he reaped the benefit of having the imprimatur of a Black superstar, at least until his relationship with West cooled a few years later.

After reportedly receiving encouragement from the rapper Snoop Dogg, Trump did commute the drug trafficking sentence of a Death Row Records co-founder, Michael Harris, known as Harry-O. And this year, Snoop Dogg — who was once a vocal Trump critic — said, “I have nothing but love and respect for Donald Trump.”
The rapper Kodak Black may have crystallized the link between Trump and clemency for figures in the rap industry when he was asked by the hosts of the “Drink Champs” podcast how his own commutation from Trump came about. Black joked, “I’m Mafioso, bruh,” illustrating the way that Trump has treated pardons and commutations: like gifts from a mob boss.

As the Harvard professor Brandon Terry, who has studied the aesthetics and sociology of hip-hop and Black youth cultures, told me, Trump’s grants of clemency “feed that kind of heroic, solidaristic picture of him as a strong man dispensing favor to people who stay in line.”

The way Trump uses the pardon power reduces our conception of justice to capricious acts of forgiveness, not so much bestowed as traded for loyalty, creating unwritten indentureship for the recipients.

Pretty clearly, Trump believes in an inherent and endemic link between Blackness and criminality. In a 2016 debate, he said that minorities in inner cities “are living in hell.” In 2020, he falsely implied that the 2020 election was stolen from him partly due to cheating in major cities with large Black populations. This year, he suggested that Black people identify with him because he has a mug shot.

The rot at the core of these beliefs is unmistakable, and yet a number of rappers have still allowed themselves to be used as Trump’s pawns.

Corey Miles, a Tulane University sociology professor who studies the relationship of trap music, a subgenre of hip-hop, to the carceral state, says that Trump is “double dipping,” routinely calling, on the front end, for the criminal justice system to get tough, but on the back end tying his selfish critique of the same criminal justice system now going after him to Black people’s legitimate critiques of that system.

He’s doing nothing to alter the predation of the system, only horse trading exemptions from it.

And the testimonials that Trump buys with his pardons matters, not because people take direct voting advice from musicians, but because these musicians quite literally have the mic, and what they say can soften the ground in the culture, making support of Trump for some feel less like treachery and more like rebellion.