2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Red Five 40845]

1 minute ago, DixonHur said:

Just for grins, here's what the polls looked like on July 1, 2020, vs today... spoiler: it's not encouraging.

Huh. Trump's numbers are essentially the same. The problem is the other direction. 

[David Dennison 18850]

Just now, Red Five said:

Huh. Trump's numbers are essentially the same. The problem is the other direction. 

Yeah, but that's not going to convince Joe to step aside.

[ChiTownDoc 21143]

lol at all the ‘stop being pussies and vote for Biden’ comments.  People here will.  Theres a LOT of low educated voters etc that will just stay home.  And Trump will get his lunatics out.  Not caring your candidate looks and sounds like a nursing home resident is a choice.  ‘BUT the other guy does too!’  Be better?  Or not.  

[DixonHur 11294]

1 minute ago, Red Five said:

Huh. Trump's numbers are essentially the same. The problem is the other direction. 

Yup, and his name is Kennedy.

[Skipper 6128]

Too many Cloak Room regulars still whistling past the graveyard.  Much like Trump, Biden is flat out not fit for office.  Certainly not another 4 year term.  The decline has been significant.  The clear result for those that think neither is fit for office is more votes for RFK or people just not showing up.   I don't think Biden can recover.  

['stache 21797]

Just now, ChiTownDoc said:

lol at all the ‘stop being pussies and vote for Biden’ comments.  People here will.  Theres a LOT of low educated voters etc that will just stay home.  And Trump will get his lunatics out.  Not caring your candidate looks and sounds like a nursing home resident is a choice.  ‘BUT the other guy does too!’  Be better?  Or not.  

They'd stay home for Newsome or anyone else they haven't heard about. Biden has a 4-year record that is objectively good by most metrics, including the ones the right constantly focuses on. A new comer this late in the game will just make apathetic voters more apathetic. There's still a chance to get a few to the polls in November with trump still talking like a lunatic all the time. That doesn't work for a newcomer that the apathetic folks don't know. That is why I think replacing him hurts way more than it would help. Especially with Joe looking fine again in public appearances.

[Michael Knight 12977]

we're proper fucked, we're either headed to the Mad Max or Star Trek timelines 

[Rex Kramer 1333]

8 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Most people in this country don't have any idea who Gavin Newsome is.

I disagree with that. Regardless, Obama clearly has much more name recognition and her husband was one of the more centrist, competent leaders I can remember. I think she’d wipe the floor with him and energize liberals and moderates. 

[Red Five 40845]

1 minute ago, Rex Kramer said:

I disagree with that. Regardless, Obama clearly has much more name recognition and her husband was one of the more centrist, competent leaders I can remember. I think she’d wipe the floor with him and energize liberals and moderates. 

I think most of us would love that. Problem is, Michelle wouldn't. 

[Js1 85286]

17 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

Newsome would be a combo of too late in the game to implement his plan and too divisive. Michelle could win. 

She’s not going to fucking run. Ever. Let it go. 

[Js1 85286]

5 minutes ago, 'stache said:

They'd stay home for Newsome or anyone else they haven't heard about. Biden has a 4-year record that is objectively good by most metrics, including the ones the right constantly focuses on. A new comer this late in the game will just make apathetic voters more apathetic. There's still a chance to get a few to the polls in November with trump still talking like a lunatic all the time. That doesn't work for a newcomer that the apathetic folks don't know. That is why I think replacing him hurts way more than it would help. Especially with Joe looking fine again in public appearances.

Joe stepping aside for anyone but Harris is going to push more people not to vote or vote third party bc “the DNC rigged it so make sure Bernie couldn’t win again” or some shit. It’s Biden or Harris. No one else. 

[mdmost 43000]

The only way Michelle entertains entering the race is if the Bidens make that a stipulation for stepping him down. Again though, she's a black liberal female. That's a bigger boogeyman to racists and passively racist people that claim to be moderates than feeble Uncle Joe. But I feel she has zero desire to be president. 

['stache 21797]

JFC, if Michelle Obama wanted to hold office she would have run by now. Why do people keep bringing up her name? 

[softlynow 1812]

5 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

we're proper fucked, we're either headed to the Mad Max or Star Trek timelines 

It's not a great movie, but Elysium seems like one of the most plausible dystopian futures, given current trends.

[Red Five 40845]

Just now, 'stache said:

JFC, if Michelle Obama wanted to hold office she would have run by now. Why do people keep bringing up her name? 

Because people are in panic mode.

Shit got real last week. Biden got a layup question in the debate about abortion, and five seconds later he was talking about "illegals" crossing the border and killing people. People are freaked out man.

[Rex Kramer 1333]

5 minutes ago, mdmost said:

The only way Michelle entertains entering the race is if the Bidens make that a stipulation for stepping him down. Again though, she's a black liberal female. That's a bigger boogeyman to racists and passively racist people that claim to be moderates than feeble Uncle Joe. But I feel she has zero desire to be president. 

I don’t think she wants to be either. She’s not liberal, unless significantly moreso than her husband, and less so than ineffective Kamala. Regardless of how racists feel about her, she’s been there, done that, and could win. 

[immamac 42837]

16 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Because people are in panic mode.

Shit got real last week. Biden got a layup question in the debate about abortion, and five seconds later he was talking about "illegals" crossing the border and killing people. People are freaked out man.

I don't really understand why people think the freak out is in the lost debate. Bad debates happen and they've used that defense/card. The issue is that Biden isn't in front of a camera or doing talkshows all the god damned time and the one time he was on TV for a substantial amount of time since the SOTU he was barely coherent and clearly unfit to hold his current position. 

It wasn't just bad for RE-ELECTION, had this happened in 2022 he would be under extreme pressure for people to push the 25th amendment button. 

You know it's fucking bad when Trump doesn't even dunk on Biden for being senile, he legitimately feels bad for him and knows that it's not Biden's fault and it's really fucked up to pick on him. 

Why is it that you think the Trump sphere has been silent on this outside of fueling the fire for democrats to replace him? Trump himself is hardly silent on anything, especially something as low hanging fruit as this. It's really a fucked up thing. 

[wildcat09 29346]

22 minutes ago, Js1 said:

She’s not going to fucking run. Ever. Let it go. 

This wishcasting is getting tiresome. We've moved from actual officeholders to a former first lady who has never run for any elected office. What's next? Y'all gonna start wishing for the Rock? 

[DixonHur 11294]

Taking a deeper dive in the polls, since national polls don't really mean much.  Here are the swing state polls from July 1, 2020 vs today.  Spoiler:  It paints an even worse picture.

Arizona:

Spoiler

 

Florida:

Spoiler

Georgia:

Spoiler

Michigan:

Spoiler

Minnesota:

Spoiler

Nevada:

Spoiler

North Carolina:

Spoiler

Ohio:

Spoiler

Pennsylvania:

Spoiler

Wisconsin:

Spoiler

 

[Js1 85286]

Just now, DixonHur said:

Taking a deeper dive in the polls, since national polls don't really mean much.  Here are the swing state polls from July 1, 2020 vs today.  Spoiler:  It paints an even worse picture.

 

Okay, and we've established there was a systematic bias in the 2020 polls because Dems stayed home due to COVID measures and Republicans didn't give a shit and were out and about. 

It's a classic non-response bias in polling.  

[aggie08 21491]

35 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Most people in this country don't have any idea who Gavin Newsome is.

They know where California is, and they know what reaction they've been trained to make every time they hear the words "California politics".

People from Wisconsin who are okay with abortion and are okay with gay people getting married and who want affordable healthcare still will never vote for a slick-haired California Democrat. "Too extreme." Propaganda fucking works.

[David Dennison 18850]

1 minute ago, DixonHur said:

Taking a deeper dive in the polls, since national polls don't really mean much.  Here are the swing state polls from July 1, 2020 vs today.  Spoiler:  It paints an even worse picture.

Arizona:

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Florida:

  Reveal hidden contents

Georgia:

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Michigan:

  Reveal hidden contents

Minnesota:

  Reveal hidden contents

Nevada:

  Reveal hidden contents

North Carolina:

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Ohio:

  Reveal hidden contents

Pennsylvania:

  Hide contents

Wisconsin:

  Hide contents

 

Again, none of those are bad enough to get a life long politician who happens to be the incumbent President to drop out of a race.

[DixonHur 11294]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Okay, and we've established there was a systematic bias in the 2020 polls because Dems stayed home due to COVID measures and Republicans didn't give a shit and were out and about. 

It's a classic non-response bias in polling.  

Not sure I follow.  Trumps numbers have basically stayed the same... it's Biden's numbers that have dropped.

[Red Five 40845]

1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

Again, none of those are bad enough to get a life long politician who happens to be the incumbent President to drop out of a race.

10-12 point drops across the board in swing states? What would be bad enough?

[wildcat09 29346]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Okay, and we've established there was a systematic bias in the 2020 polls because Dems stayed home due to COVID measures and Republicans didn't give a shit and were out and about. 

It's a classic non-response bias in polling.  

Yeah, for anyone who has been following the polls this has been the case all year. It's not like Biden was up before the debate and then cratered.

[DixonHur 11294]

1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

Again, none of those are bad enough to get a life long politician who happens to be the incumbent President to drop out of a race.

Just providing information... I'd assume Biden's team is aware.  What they decide to do with the information is entirely up to them, but we're the ones who are going to find out when they fuck around.

I've stated this before, but the fact is I'm a straight white, cis, male, with relatively good means, so I'll be fine either way.   My fear is for my friends who don't fit in those boxes... which is about 50% of them.

[Js1 85286]

7 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Yeah, for anyone who has been following the polls this has been the case all year. It's not like Biden was up before the debate and then cratered.

Not to mention the supports of the out party tend to answer polls because they're "angrier" and more likely to voice their displeasure.  But those 2020 polls were fools gold.  

Compare the now polls to the actual results and I'm more inclined to talk.

[Goredho 17397]

15 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Too many Cloak Room regulars still whistling past the graveyard.  Much like Trump, Biden is flat out not fit for office.  Certainly not another 4 year term.  The decline has been significant.  The clear result for those that think neither is fit for office is more votes for RFK or people just not showing up.   I don't think Biden can recover.  

Yep, I care about one thing this election -- defeating the rise of fascism.  I don't give a shit about Biden, how great he should be viewed given what he has accomplished or how things would be if we had an intelligent and educated populace.  There's the way the world should be and there's the way the world is.  Dems and people here need to quit operating as if the world is as it should be and start operating as to how the world really is.  Too many voters think the Dem option is an escaped dementia patient.  Because he acted like one.  Live.  On national TV.  While juxtaposed against his Fascist opponent that was free to spew his propaganda to voters.  Grandpa stood there on the right drooling on himself and then acted confused and befuddled when he had the opportunity to respond.

I wish the voters weren't stupid.  I wish the media were more willing to challenge the lies.  I wish Trump wasn't a narcissistic aspiring despot.  I wish the Supreme Court wouldn't be his air cover in the judicial system.  I wish Republicans weren't willing to risk it all to achieve some ultimate ideological victory.  I wish there wasn't a well-oiled and unified machine operating to dispose of democracy in this country.  But what I wish and what is are not the same thing.  Those are all part of the context of reality that we find ourselves in that won't be changed between now and November.

So given that reality, what the fuck are you going to do about it, Democrats?  Playing this prevent defense to protect JoeB while already behind in the 2nd half isn't going to work.

[Foosters 17841]

1 hour ago, Skipper said:

Too many Cloak Room regulars still whistling past the graveyard.  Much like Trump, Biden is flat out not fit for office.  Certainly not another 4 year term.  The decline has been significant.  The clear result for those that think neither is fit for office is more votes for RFK or people just not showing up.   I don't think Biden can recover.  

Who are you voting for?

[wildcat09 29346]

10 minutes ago, Goredho said:

Yep, I care about one thing this election -- defeating the rise of fascism.  I don't give a shit about Biden, how great he should be viewed given what he has accomplished or how things would be if we had an intelligent and educated populace.  There's the way the world should be and there's the way the world is.  Dems and people here need to quit operating as if the world is as it should be and start operating as to how the world really is.  Too many voters think the Dem option is an escaped dementia patient.  Because he acted like one.  Live.  On national TV.  While juxtaposed against his Fascist opponent that was free to spew his propaganda to voters.  Grandpa stood there on the right drooling on himself and then acted confused and befuddled when he had the opportunity to respond.

I wish the voters weren't stupid.  I wish the media were more willing to challenge the lies.  I wish Trump wasn't a narcissistic aspiring despot.  I wish the Supreme Court wouldn't be his air cover in the judicial system.  I wish Republicans weren't willing to risk it all to achieve some ultimate ideological victory.  I wish there wasn't a well-oiled and unified machine operating to dispose of democracy in this country.  But what I wish and what is are not the same thing.  Those are all part of the context of reality that we find ourselves in that won't be changed between now and November.

So given that reality, what the fuck are you going to do about it, Democrats?  Playing this prevent defense to protect JoeB while already behind in the 2nd half isn't going to work.

You don't get it. None of us are saying that it's actually fine that the Democratic nominee looks like the cryptkeeper and clearly has dementia. We're not giving Biden the worshipful Notorious RBG "he should get to choose when to step aside" treatment.  I personally don't give a fuck about Joe Biden.

What we are doing is explaining why all of y'all's magical alternatives are actually even worse options if your goal is to beat Trump. The only plausible alternative to Biden is Kamala Harris. If he decides to step aside and she's our nominee, I'd be fine with that, but there's no reason to think it materially changes our chances of beating Trump. And most of the people demanding an alternative now don't want it to be her.  That's precisely why so many of you are dreaming impossible brokered convention scenarios. Whitmer, Newsome, and Pritzker don't want the huge fucking shitshow they would have on their hands from cutting in front of Harris without even running in any primaries. And Michelle Obama doesn't want the fucking job, and even if she did she suffers from most of the same electoral weaknesses (black woman) that are the reason y'all don't want Harris to be the nominee. At least she's not as publicly weird as Harris usually is, but there's actually no evidence that she'd be more likely to beat Trump than Biden is.

[ATXhorn17 1617]

1 hour ago, usmc0331horn said:

Only weird online people care about the debate and it doesn't reflect how ordinary people feel.

Really? Because all of my friends (including those completely uninterested in politics) have been inundated with non-stop clips of Biden looking incapable of holding office or stringing together a sentence. Believe it or not, that matters.

[DixonHur 11294]

5 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Whitmer, Newsome, and Pritzker don't want the huge fucking shitshow they would have on their hands from cutting in front of Harris

Congratulations, you've just identified the issue with the Democratic Party.  It shouldn't be about who's been on the bench longest. 

In 2016 that was Clinton, so the DNC protected and promoted her, even though the electorate said they didn't want her.  That unforced error led to Trump and 3 uber-conservative, and young justices at SCOTUS.  

Then we dragged the oldest person we could out of retirement to run against Trump in 2020, and squeaked by with about 40k votes over 5 states, even after a disastrous 4 years under Trump.  Now they're running a corpse.

It's madness.

['stache 21797]

2 minutes ago, ATXhorn17 said:

Really? Because all of my friends (including those completely uninterested in politics) have been inundated with non-stop clips of Biden looking incapable of holding office or stringing together a sentence. Believe it or not, that matters.

Do they have the same reaction to Trump babbling a bunch of lies and nonsense? The right supports and emboldens him through everything. The left is now undermining their own guy despite his actual words and accomplishments. Replacing him now is just a sign of surrender. He looked fine the next morning on the campaign trail. Why no mention of that? Because we pretend that debates are something special, they aren't anymore. 

[DixonHur 11294]

1 minute ago, 'stache said:

Do they have the same reaction to Trump babbling a bunch of lies and nonsense? The right supports and emboldens him through everything. The left is now undermining their own guy despite his actual words and accomplishments. Replacing him now is just a sign of surrender. He looked fine the next morning on the campaign trail. Why no mention of that? Because we pretend that debates are something special, they aren't anymore. 

We get that you'd love the world to be fair, but we're just pointing out the obvious truths about how the world actually operates.  

Yes, in a perfect world, a corpse should be enough to beat Trump.  Sadly, that's just not that case and many of us aren't "Johnny come Latelys" to the idea that Biden shouldn't be running in 2024.  I was calling pointing this out the moment it became clear Trump was running again.  But was called foolish and reactionary by members of this board... some of the same folks who are still poo-pooing the idea.

But the Dem party is completely incompetent and thinks people should wait until it's "their turn". 

[Goredho 17397]

9 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

You don't get it. None of us are saying that it's actually fine that the Democratic nominee looks like the cryptkeeper and clearly has dementia. We're not giving Biden the worshipful Notorious RBG "he should get to choose when to step aside" treatment.  I personally don't give a fuck about Joe Biden.

What we are doing is explaining why all of y'all's magical alternatives are actually even worse options if your goal is to beat Trump. The only plausible alternative to Biden is Kamala Harris. If he decides to step aside and she's our nominee, I'd be fine with that, but there's no reason to think it materially changes our chances of beating Trump. And most of the people demanding an alternative now don't want it to be her.  That's precisely why so many of you are dreaming impossible brokered convention scenarios. Whitmer, Newsome, and Pritzker don't want the huge fucking shitshow they would have on their hands from cutting in front of Harris without even running in any primaries. And Michelle Obama doesn't want the fucking job, and even if she did she suffers from most of the same electoral weaknesses (black woman) that are the reason y'all don't want Harris to be the nominee. At least she's not as publicly weird as Harris usually is, but there's actually no evidence that she'd be more likely to beat Trump than Biden is.

I get that the building's engulfed in flames, Fire Marshall Grandpa is fumbling with the fire hose trying to figure out which end to hold and that you and the Democratic party are telling us no one else more capable can take the fire hose from Grandpa to attempt to put out the fire.  Because Grandpa was elected Fire Marshall and there are no contingencies for replacing him when he inevitably got too old to perform and so we all just have to be patient with him as we're incinerated.

That is a bullshit and unacceptable answer.

[Pam Cummings 9639]

7 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

We get that you'd love the world to be fair, but we're just pointing out the obvious truths about how the world actually operates.  

Yes, in a perfect world, a corpse should be enough to beat Trump.  Sadly, that's just not that case and many of us aren't "Johnny come Latelys" to the idea that Biden shouldn't be running in 2024.  I was calling pointing this out the moment it became clear Trump was running again.  But was called foolish and reactionary by members of this board... some of the same folks who are still poo-pooing the idea.

But the Dem party is completely incompetent and thinks people should wait until it's "their turn". 

What is your point, man? You have two choices. Fascism or not fascism. That's it. The time to bitch about the choices was a long fucking time ago. South Park made an episode about it. We didn't change it then and here we are. So either get your head out of your ass and vote "not facism" or don't. It might be too late in all honesty.

Edited July 1 by Pam Cummings

[wildcat09 29346]

3 minutes ago, Goredho said:

That is a bullshit and unacceptable answer.

Welcome to finally figuring out what it's like being a Democrat, I guess. 

[Goredho 17397]

2 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Welcome to finally figuring out what it's like being a Democrat, I guess. 

Yep, I guess the bright side is that their impotence in the face of destruction may give rise to something more effectual as an oppositional force to fascism.

[The Original Greaser Bob 2822]

1 hour ago, Red Five said:

Shit got real last week. Biden got a layup question in the debate about abortion, and five seconds later he was talking about "illegals" crossing the border and killing people. People are freaked out man.

Justifiably right?

 

[G650 14243]

Now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb.

[immamac 42837]

what if the dems did a 5head move.

Biden steps down as President, Kamala Harris is sworn in as President. Campaign finance rules stick because ticket is same so don't have to re-raise money and you get to keep the incumbent advantage because Kamala is actually president. 

Boom. The good guys win. 

[ATXhorn17 1617]

26 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Do they have the same reaction to Trump babbling a bunch of lies and nonsense? The right supports and emboldens him through everything. The left is now undermining their own guy despite his actual words and accomplishments. Replacing him now is just a sign of surrender. He looked fine the next morning on the campaign trail. Why no mention of that? Because we pretend that debates are something special, they aren't anymore. 

Trump lying is the norm. He’s monstrous. It’s expected. What was shocking and worth sharing was Biden’s complete inability to speak. To any outside observer, it’s abundantly clear that he’s no longer running the country (and hasn’t been for a while)… Which implies that Biden’s circle and party leadership have been boldfaced in lying to the American public for months/years.

And no, no one was impressed by Biden reading a pre-prepared speech off of a teleprompter the next morning. The damage was done.

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

8 minutes ago, immamac said:

what if the dems did a 5head move.

Biden steps down as President, Kamala Harris is sworn in as President. Campaign finance rules stick because ticket is same so don't have to re-raise money and you get to keep the incumbent advantage because Kamala is actually president. 

Boom. The good guys win. 

I love it.  That would help see what can be unburdened by what has been.

[Red Five 40845]

11 minutes ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

Justifiably right?

 

Very much so. 

[DixonHur 11294]

11 minutes ago, Pam Cummings said:

What is your point, man? You have two choices. Fascism or not fascism. That's it. The time to bitch about the choices was a long fucking time ago. South Park made an episode about it. We didn't change it then and here we are. So either get your head out of your ass and vote "not facism" or don't. It might be too late in all honesty.

The bolded is my point, which is why I favor the Hail Mary of a new candidate.

Will it work?  I have no idea, but that's how low my confidence is that the current strategy will save us from fascism.

Right now, I think there's a 95% chance Trump wins... maybe someone like Whitmer (not Newsome) takes it down to 85% which is good enough for me.

[Pam Cummings 9639]

Another question: what the fuck does it matter what we think when the Supreme court just told us they are on the payroll? Every major decision from now on will be run through them. Guess who is calling the shots on how they will rule? It certainly isn't up to them anymore. They are a kangaroo court now. The time to stop these fascist cunts was when they were messing with the high courts. People should have been kicked out of congress. People should have gone to jail. Instead they were enabled.

Edited July 1 by Pam Cummings

[Foosters 17841]

3 minutes ago, ATXhorn17 said:

Trump lying is the norm. He’s monstrous. It’s expected. What was shocking and worth sharing was Biden’s complete inability to speak. To any outside observer, it’s abundantly clear that he’s no longer running the country (and hasn’t been for a while)… Which implies that Biden’s circle and party leadership have been boldfaced in lying to the American public for months/years.

And no, no one was impressed by Biden reading a pre-prepared speech off of a teleprompter the next morning. The damage was done.

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

1 minute ago, Pam Cummings said:

Another question: what the fuck does it matter what we think when the Supreme court just told us they are on the payroll?

(the president has a certain role in filling future scotus seats)

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20392]

46 minutes ago, Goredho said:

I get that the building's engulfed in flames, Fire Marshall Grandpa is fumbling with the fire hose trying to figure out which end to hold and that you and the Democratic party are telling us no one else more capable can take the fire hose from Grandpa to attempt to put out the fire.  Because Grandpa was elected Fire Marshall and there are no contingencies for replacing him when he inevitably got too old to perform and so we all just have to be patient with him as we're incinerated.

That is a bullshit and unacceptable answer.

Well you can't make people run for President and I don't believe that any of the alternatives who have been proposed are inclined to do so.

 

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20392]

25 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

The bolded is my point, which is why I favor the Hail Mary of a new candidate.

 

What is the name of this Hail Mary?