2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

linux · July 2

Just now, SubliminalHorn said:

What data do you have at this point? A couple national polls? Who gives a fuck about those. Biden is underwater in every swing state right now. You want all this fucking data. There is none! We are in uncharted waters. You truly, deep down in your gut, believe Biden is the best chance at beating trump?

Donald Trump has worse polling than when he did in 2020 (I am talking about his points not the delta), meaning that this entire election is close because people are panicking and wishcasting their own perfect candidate that A) does not exist B) will NOT have consensus even if he or she did C) Would be torn back down to earth in no time.

immamac · July 2

1 minute ago, 'stache said:

I disagree with your characterization, but even if you are 100% correct, do you really see that as worse than the alternative? Sometimes, this year in particular, it's just as important to vote against someone that it is for someone else. Worst case scenario his very competent cabinet and/or VP do the work for the next 4 years. That should be good enough considering what is happening in this country.

Is it really hard to fathom that someone doesn't want a brain mush candidate as much as they don't want the orange Cheetoh?

A lot of people haven't made the connection that this is fascism vs democracy on the ballot because they aren't tuned in.

DixonHur · July 2

16 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

female so might drive opposition turnout

I doubt it... pretty sure all the incels and misogynists are already voting Trump.

16 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

blacks may not turn out for her

Her state is like 17% African American and they turn out for her. If you're black and voting for a white corpse, I think a 52-year-old white woman would be a suitable alternative.

Let's not forget that Kamala has a lower approval rating among black voters than Biden, so I don't think many would be turned off by her being passed over.

BrickTop · July 2

I disagree with your characterization, but even if you are 100% correct, do you really see that as worse than the alternative? Sometimes, this year in particular, it's just as important to vote against someone that it is for someone else. Worst case scenario his very competent cabinet and/or VP do the work for the next 4 years. That should be good enough considering what is happening in this country.

As I said, it’s about the candidate not the party,the lack of transparency or acknowledgement of the potential underlying condition concerns me enough, I know you’ll say voting for neither is like voting for Trump but as you stated, I disagree with that characterization.

troph · July 2

Just now, immamac said:

Is it really hard to fathom that someone doesn't want a brain mush candidate as much as they don't want the orange Cheetoh?

A lot of people haven't made the connection that this is fascism vs democracy on the ballot because they aren't tuned in.

his position is 100% understandable. I share it. But I will vote for a corpse because of fascism.

Rex Kramer · July 2

16 minutes ago, linux said:

Common sense is the death of reason, its like superstition dressed up in nerd glasses.

Gimme data, or give me history not your common sense, the common sense that Donald Trump should have never gotten to this point is why the system was shit and designed to fail.

I can’t give you any data because this is unprecedented. Continue to bury your head in the sand.

Dbeasy · July 2

26 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

see? this is why it's hard to take you seriously. checkered past? the dude is a twice impeached (should have been twice convicted) rapist felon former president with 50+ more felony indictments to wade through. the other guy is old. same same, again

See? This is why it’s hard to take you seriously. Old? Potentially serious mental decline is not “old”.

BrickTop · July 2

Her state is like 17% African American and they turn out for her. If you're black and voting for a white corpse, I think a 52-year-old white woman would be a suitable alternative.
Let's not forget that Kamala has a lower approval rating among black voters than Biden, so I don't think many would be turned off by her being passed over.

I’d vote for Whitmer in a heartbeat.

I’d vote for Whitmer in a heartbeat.

Oops wrong candidate.

linux · July 2

Just now, immamac said:

Is it really hard to fathom that someone doesn't want a brain mush candidate as much as they don't want the orange Cheetoh?

A lot of people haven't made the connection that this is fascism vs democracy on the ballot because they aren't tuned in.

I would still like to see his poll numbers crumble or collapse after the debate to make that decision, with data, we are not seeing that.

What I am seeing is people thinking they can get their candidate in. That is what is killing making him lose projections (I am voting for Bernie of staying home!), ironically his polling numbers should be a disaster with how many people think they are right.

SubliminalHorn · July 2

1 minute ago, linux said:

Donald Trump has worse polling than when he did in 2020 (I am talking about his points not the delta), meaning that this entire election is close because people are panicking and wishcasting their own perfect candidate that A) does not exist B) will NOT have consensus even if he or she did C) Would be torn back down to earth in no time.

Enthusiasm is down across the board. There have been numerous calls for different candidates, even on the GQP side for a while. Nobody wants these two. Biden had a close win with a voting participation rate that was the highest in recent memory. That isn’t going to happen this time. That portends disaster for him and us

The Original Greaser Bob · July 2

24 minutes ago, Longhorn94 said:

the economy is great. people are better off than they were under Trump. the only problems we have with the economy are BECAUSE of Trump's policies and presidency. This election will be about a good economy, lowest unemployment in 50 years, WOMEN's RIGHTS, the fucking supreme court, and oh yeah DEMOCRACY. If those issues don't get the same 2020 voters plus a shitload of people who previously supported Trump to switch sides then we deserve the dystopian future that would be in store for us all with another Trump presidency.

this is a stupid fucking argument at this point. Biden has had what many consider to be the most legislatively successful 3.5 years of any president in the last 50 years. He has a booming economy at his back and bright future ahead.

You do realize that the only reason we are having this conversation is that the bolded portion? That the bolded portion does appear to be ready to completely trump the unbolded portion?

The argument is that a new candidate will be able to jettison the age issue while carrying virtually all the positive baggage from Biden's Presidency.

BrickTop · July 2

I think most are scared about switching candidates this close to the election, I think most would be surprised of the outcome.

'stache · July 2

9 minutes ago, immamac said:

Is it really hard to fathom that someone doesn't want a brain mush candidate as much as they don't want the orange Cheetoh?

A lot of people haven't made the connection that this is fascism vs democracy on the ballot because they aren't tuned in.

It's not hard to fathom because we're a country full of disinterested voters, but I think it's absolute lunacy to think the worst case scenario under Biden is the same or worse than the best case scenario under trump.

Edited July 2 by 'stache

The Royal We · July 2

11 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Since you are here, I would just implore you, if these are the two choices in November, to vote for the people that they've chosen to surround themselves with. The Biden White House is supremely competent and can easily withstand an "in name only" President.

Trump's White House was full of literal criminals, the slimiest people on Earth, and constant turnover. His answer to that is going to be surround himself with even more loyal leaches. They're not even hiding it, hence Project 2025. He is the swamp. Birth control and gay marriage bans ARE coming, among many other horrible things, whether they directly effect you or not.

It's a shitty choice...but it's still a remarkably easy choice.

This is something that never gets discussed at this point because of all the other fuckery going on, but Trump was a terrible leader with historically high turnover in his administration. Pretty much anyone who was competent or decent was either forced out or quit when they saw how dysfunctional it was with their own eyes. John Kelly, Rex Tillerson, Jeff Sessions, Jim Mattis, John Bolton, etc. The cabinet for a 2nd Trump term won't be chosen based on competency, it will be loyalty to Trump above all else.

I hear a lot of people talk about how they can't vote for Biden because he's too old, but the job is waaaaaay too big for one person. Leadership and selecting good people to be around you is just as big or maybe even a bigger predictor of success and competency imo.

aggie08 · July 2

4 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Perhaps, but also perhaps you haven't been listening to the independents on this board clamoring for change. You don't think people waxing poetic about Romney would vote for Whitmer?

Like it or not, we independents are the ones who will determine the outcome of this election.

Hate on us, make fun of us, call us stupid, whatever, but the fact remains.

Independents who even loosely follow politics and always vote aren't really my concern. I trust them to be able to do the Biden's Cabinet and agenda >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Trump's Cabinet and agenda math.

It's the people who don't always vote, that don't fully realize the importance of this election that will stay home or show just how "independent" and fed up with bad choices they are by voting for [checks notes] RFKjr.

troph · July 2

1 minute ago, BrickTop said:

I think most are scared about switching candidates this close to the election, I think most would be surprised of the outcome.

I think you and many fail to realize what "switching" means from an operational standpoint. It's not a light switch. There are machines built by campaigns over years in some cases. It would not be an easy thing to do to switch, it might even be next to impossible with enough time to guarantee a better outcome. no time to iterate on messaging, no time to build up a staff, you hope the biden campaign team just moves over in support. in theory that makes sense, but it's not going to be clean, quick or easy. and we have only 120 days.

BrickTop · July 2

This is something that never gets discussed at this point because of all the other fuckery going on, but Trump was a terrible leader with historically high turnover in his administration. Pretty much anyone who was competent or decent was either forced out or quit when they saw how dysfunctional it was with their own eyes. John Kelly, Rex Tillerson, Jeff Sessions, Jim Mattis, John Bolton, etc. The cabinet for a 2nd Trump term won't be chosen based on competency, it will be loyalty to Trump above all else.
I hear a lot of people talk about how they can't vote for Biden because he's too old, but the job is waaaaaay too big for one person. Leadership and selecting good people to be around you is just as big or maybe even a bigger predictor of success and competency imo.

That’s because he was never a leader, he managed to amass wealth in business then dodge consequence by filing bankruptcy. More of a slick huckster.

linux · July 2

Donald Trump has 40-42% in polls, that is way way way lower than 2020 even his ceiling of 45% is 100% guarantee of failure.

He can only win if the 53% anti trump coalition does not vote. That is it that is his only path to victory, not if Biden dies tomorrow, not if he falls asleep every single day, (the latter based on polling) it is the 53% not showing up for the polls and the only scenario I see this happening is in a democrat civil war.

4th&Five · July 2

BrickTop · July 2

I think you and many fail to realize what "switching" means from an operational standpoint. It's not a light switch. There are machines built by campaigns over years in some cases. It would not be an easy thing to do to switch, it might even be next to impossible with enough time to guarantee a better outcome. no time to iterate on messaging, no time to build up a staff, you hope the biden campaign team just moves over in support. in theory that makes sense, but it's not going to be clean, quick or easy. and we have only 120 days.

I totally agree it would be a monumental task, I also think if they don’t he loses.

Longhorn_Fan68 · July 2

2 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

See? This is why it’s hard to take you seriously. Old? Potentially serious mental decline is not “old”.

you're not dealing in facts. one is a perception. one is fact. both guys are for sure old. one guy is for sure a felon and rapist. one guy stutters, pauses before he responds so he doesn't stutter. one guy lies incessantly. one guy tells us the truth even if we don't like it. one guy tried to overthrow democracy. one guy is trying to save it. unless and until Biden's doctor comes out and says he is unfit for duty, he is factually the better candidate of the two. I refuse to deal in what-ifs and likely scenarios. that's been the republican way of ruling forever - make us fear what "might" happen instead of addressing the reality in front of us. If biden is the nominee he gets my vote. if it's someone else, they will in turn. no way in shit I'm voting R ever again.

mchookem · July 2

58 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

It’s interesting that people think that’s a flex. It’s not. It’s just what people do because their country’s antiquated political system dictated two woefully substandard candidates to them.

i am just going to hope that the folks that fell in this camp in 2016 - 'they are both terrible, boo, im just not voting!' - will remember what it felt like on 11/9/2016. there were a lot of people in my social/work circles that expressed similar sentiments... and the next day they were walking around in shock 😐 shaking their heads in disbelief. one even articulated 'i mean, i didn't think he would WIN!' 🤬

same as Brexit. idiots.

BrickTop · July 2

you're not dealing in facts. one is a perception. one is fact. both guys are for sure old. one guy is for sure a felon and rapist. one guy stutters, pauses before he responds so he doesn't stutter. one guy lies incessantly. one guy tells us the truth even if we don't like it. one guy tried to overthrow democracy. one guy is trying to save it. unless and until Biden's doctor comes out and says he is unfit for duty, he is factually the better candidate of the two. I refuse to deal in what-ifs and likely scenarios. that's been the republican way of ruling forever - make us fear what "might" happen instead of addressing the reality in front of us. If biden is the nominee he gets my vote. if it's someone else, they will in turn. no way in shit I'm voting R ever again.

How many Americans you think rely upon perception instead of fact?

Pancho · July 2

10 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Let's not forget that Kamala has a lower approval rating among black voters than Biden, so I don't think many would be turned off by her being passed over.

Link?

DixonHur · July 2

11 minutes ago, bolverk said:

It's also the entire administration they bring with them, comprising the leadership of the entire Executive Branch and the direction they steer the entire bureaucratic apparatus. Right now, I believe that's 6,000 or so political appointees who generally believe in good governance. Together, they have a pretty strong track record of competency and running things with a steady hand.

Under Trump, Project 2025 calls for firing and replacing 60,000 nonpolitical professionals with political hacks that must undergo an ideological vetting process to ensure their personal loyalties to a thoroughly corrupt and volatile old man also showing signs of dementia, Donald J. Trump, and they have a pretty clear agenda to tear it all down. They've plainly stated that's their goal; believe them.

*****

This is the first time I've weighed in since the debate, which I studiously avoided because debates have completely devolved into dog-and-pony shows where nothing of substance is discussed anymore. There are also the issues with Biden, who's never been a strong communicator, and with Trump, who is an infuriating, lying blowhard.

Consider the following as y'all contemplate how you're going to go through your decision matrix on voting.

A modern president's job entails:

Choosing a team,

Making decisions with that team, and

Communicating those decisions to the American people

Between the two main candidates, whom do you trust most under the current circumstances, given the 4 years we experienced under the Trump Administration or the 3 1/2 years we experienced under the Biden Administration?

Also, keep in mind that they're both old men, and either of them could croak within the next four years. Which "team" would you trust most to handle a smooth transition to whoever would be elevated from the Vice Presidency?

These are obviously not ideal circumstances, and I certainly wish it were different, but this is where we're at.

This is a great overview of how people "should" make their decisions, but I fear you are miscalculating/overestimating the electorate.

I have more than a few friends who have openly stated they won't vote for either Biden or Trump. But they've also said they would vote if the Dems nominated someone else... not named Newsome (comes off slimy) or Harris.

That's all folks like @BrickTop are saying.

Again, it might not make sense in your brain, but 40% of American thinking Trump is amazing probably doesn't either, so take our warnings with a grain of salt if you like.

The Original Greaser Bob · July 2

6 minutes ago, 'stache said:

but I think it's absolute lunacy to think the worst case scenario for Biden is the same or worse than the best case scenario for trump.

Huh?

Worst case scenario for Biden is a loss, which equals Trump's best case scenario.

linux · July 2

4 minutes ago, BrickTop said:

I think most are scared about switching candidates this close to the election, I think most would be surprised of the outcome.

It is not scared, it is about the data, people really like to vote for Biden, primaries and elections post Trump prove it, we are looking to cast all of that aside for neoriticsm and unprovable theories.

Biden is too old to be president could literally end up being as relevant as Biden is too short to be president, or Biden is too ugly to be president, there is no result out there that has ever proven this, hell voters prefer older candidates more and more and more.

What if Democrats had said in 2020 only 60 year on younger can ride this ride? the electorate could have stayed home have any of you considered that a good chunk of it are old people? Biden wins elections, all we have are theories that he will not.

Rex Kramer · July 2

21 minutes ago, immamac said:

I wasn't kidding earlier about a Biden still being the primary candidate, but with a clear and communicated plan to step down mid term so it's an election for the current administration and cabinet with a transition plan to take effect over the 2025-2026 timeframe. This is the graceful way out, the question then becomes is Kamala the right person to pass the torch to or is it someone else?

None of these other candidates y'all are throwing out there make any fucking sense as president so stop kidding yourselves it needs to be someone that's currently part of the admin and know how to run things the same way as joe with little lost in the transition.

God you’re so woefully off in this thread.

Don Johnson · July 2

15 minutes ago, immamac said:

Is it really hard to fathom that someone doesn't want a brain mush candidate as much as they don't want the orange Cheetoh?

A lot of people haven't made the connection that this is fascism vs democracy on the ballot because they aren't tuned in.

And the side of democracy takes a bit of a hit when you openly admit that the person elected by the people as President won’t actually be doing the job as President.

Edited July 2 by Don Johnson

BrickTop · July 2

And the side of democracy takes a bit of a hit when you opening admit that the person elected by the people as President won’t actually be doing the job as President.

This is what worries me, sure he can appoint people around him that are the best, but the appointees are still his choice right?

aggie08 · July 2

6 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

This is something that never gets discussed at this point because of all the other fuckery going on, but Trump was a terrible leader with historically high turnover in his administration. Pretty much anyone who was competent or decent was either forced out or quit when they saw how dysfunctional it was with their own eyes. John Kelly, Rex Tillerson, Jeff Sessions, Jim Mattis, John Bolton, etc. The cabinet for a 2nd Trump term won't be chosen based on competency, it will be loyalty to Trump above all else.

I hear a lot of people talk about how they can't vote for Biden because he's too old, but the job is waaaaaay too big for one person. Leadership and selecting good people to be around you is just as big or maybe even a bigger predictor of success and competency imo.

Excellent post. The trick is convincing disinterested voters of these things enough to vote for someone that has just cemented the unlikelihood of making it through his next term.

Aqua Buddha · July 2

22 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

I think Whitmer is actually younger, but I take your point.

I meant young to everyone else in the field (Trump, RFK, Biden, etc.) She shouldn't pick an old.

atomheartbevo · July 2

15 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

No matter how much people want it to go away, it ain’t.

People have already forgotten that Trump is a convicted felon.

DixonHur · July 2

10 minutes ago, troph said:

his position is 100% understandable. I share it. But I will vote for a corpse because of fascism.

You're also someone who would be acutely impacted by a Trump administration. Most independents don't fall into that category... so aren't as motivated to vote for one or the other. That's a big disconnect in many people's brains here and within the Democratic party.

The Dems need independent voters if they are to win.

Dbeasy · July 2

5 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

you're not dealing in facts. one is a perception. one is fact. both guys are for sure old. one guy is for sure a felon and rapist. one guy stutters, pauses before he responds so he doesn't stutter. one guy lies incessantly. one guy tells us the truth even if we don't like it. one guy tried to overthrow democracy. one guy is trying to save it. unless and until Biden's doctor comes out and says he is unfit for duty, he is factually the better candidate of the two. I refuse to deal in what-ifs and likely scenarios. that's been the republican way of ruling forever - make us fear what "might" happen instead of addressing the reality in front of us. If biden is the nominee he gets my vote. if it's someone else, they will in turn. no way in shit I'm voting R ever again.

You are 100% right. I absolutely am dealing with perception and not facts. Unfortunately, most of the voting population votes based upon perception and not facts.

You know Biden is a better choice. I know he’s a better choice. All the people in the US that learn by sound bites and TikTok headlines vote by perception. And right now, a lot of people want to pick crazy over perceived mental decline.

BrickTop · July 2

This is a great overview of how people "should" make their decisions, but I fear you are miscalculating/overestimating the electorate.
I have more than a few friends who have openly stated they won't vote for either Biden or Trump. But they've also said they would vote if the Dems nominated someone else... not named Newsome (comes off slimy) or Harris.
That's all folks like [mention=2317]BrickTop[/mention] are saying.
Again, it might not make sense in your brain, but 40% of American thinking Trump is amazing probably doesn't either, so take our warnings with a grain of salt if you like.

This is the excellently put, there are many independent and undecided voters who simply want a better option at Democrat, it’s that easy for them and if one doesn’t appear, they will stay home.

The Royal We · July 2

4 minutes ago, BrickTop said:

That’s because he was never a leader, he managed to ~~amass~~ inherit wealth ~~in business~~, try his hardest to squander it all, and then dodge consequence by filing bankruptcy and run for a 2nd term. More of a slick huckster.

FIFY

Good leadership matters in any organization, from the local Cub Scout Pack up to Fortune 500 companies - and sure as shit as the leader of the free world. Someone is steering the ship right now and things are going pretty good in my view.

I can vote for a moldy cheeseburger or I can vote for a shit sandwich with bits of glass in it. Those are not the options I would choose if I was king of the world, but thems the breaks.

DixonHur · July 2

10 minutes ago, linux said:

Donald Trump has 40-42% in polls, that is way way way lower than 2020 even his ceiling of 45% is 100% guarantee of failure.

He can only win if the 53% anti trump coalition does not vote. That is it that is his only path to victory, not if Biden dies tomorrow, not if he falls asleep every single day, (the latter based on polling) it is the 53% not showing up for the polls and the only scenario I see this happening is in a democrat civil war.

mchookem · July 2

55 minutes ago, BrickTop said:

It’s all good man, that’s why I mainly just read these threads, too many get bashed for not having the same opinions.

omgggg stop whining 🙄 this is a spirited and passionate topic and debate that very likely will determine if we can even continue to be a functioning democracy and i don't think you've gotten a single neg. jfc.

quit being a baby, and also maybe try to not help the fucking criminal fascist rapist get back in the Whitehouse, kthanks.

i mean

Red Five · July 2

1 minute ago, Dbeasy said:

You are 100% right. I absolutely am dealing with perception and not facts. Unfortunately, most of the voting population votes based upon perception and not facts.

You know Biden is a better choice. I know he’s a better choice. All the people in the US that learn by sound bites and TikTok headlines vote by perception. And right now, a lot of people want to pick crazy over perceived mental decline.

I have heard multiple people who voted for Biden in 2020 say things along the lines of "I hate Trump, but Biden is too old now. So what's the point of voting."

It really, really sucks, the position we're in.

BrickTop · July 2

Not whining at all, just posting a perception.

mchookem · July 2

1 hour ago, BrickTop said:

Perfectly stated, it’s not the party it’s the candidate.

great. that ought to make your choice REAL FUCKING EASY. 🙄

Rex Kramer · July 2

4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

People have already forgotten that Trump is a convicted felon.

Nobody has forgotten that. Criminality and bad guy are part of the Trump ethos. People are accustomed to it. The extent of Biden’s cognitive decline is new. It isn’t going away.

DixonHur · July 2

10 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Link

It's from last year, so maybe it's changed.

Black Voices Poll: Poll of 1,000 Black Voters Nationwide | Change Research

BrickTop · July 2

omgggg stop whining this is a spirited and passionate topic and debate that very likely will determine if we can even continue to be a functioning democracy and i don't think you've gotten a single neg. jfc.
quit being a baby, and also maybe try to not help the fucking criminal fascist rapist get back in the Whitehouse, kthanks.
i mean

As I stated, I disagree with the characterization that not voting is the same as voting for Trump.

Dbeasy · July 2

Serious question that sounds unserious. If Biden stepped down and The Rock announced his candidacy as a Democrat with full backing of the Democratic machine, a solid Gretchen as VP, and the proper endorsements, does he win? Mike 👨‍⚖️ is a prophet.

David Dennison · July 2

21 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

What data do you have at this point? A couple national polls? Who gives a fuck about those. Biden is underwater in every swing state right now. You want all this fucking data. There is none! We are in uncharted waters. You truly, deep down in your gut, believe Biden is the best chance at beating trump?

Some of us do believe that. Does the alternative have a precedent?

linux · July 2

1 minute ago, Dbeasy said:

Serious question that sounds unserious. If Biden stepped down and The Rock announced his candidacy as a Democrat with full backing of the Democratic machine, a solid Gretchen as VP, and the proper endorsements, does he win? Mike 👨‍⚖️ is a prophet.

Nobody knows there are a a significant chunk of democrat voters that are policy wonks, they would say he has not earned it, get angry that they got passed over for promotion and stay home.

If anything I am apocalyptic at the people that think it is this easy. It is a trillion dollar industry and we are monday morning quaterbacking.

DixonHur · July 2

16 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Link

Here's more recent polling data.

Kamala Harris approval rating high among Dems but not elsewhere: poll (usatoday.com)

Quote

While a whopping 92% of Republican voters said Harris is not qualified to be president, doubts are also within key voting blocs the Biden campaign will need in the fall: 56% of independents; 37% of African Americans; and 48% of Hispanic voters said she isn't qualified.

troph · July 2

19 minutes ago, BrickTop said:

I totally agree it would be a monumental task, I also think if they don’t he loses.

I'm not convinced it's fait accompli.

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