2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Aqua Buddha 14582]

1 minute ago, hobbes2702 said:

It’s funny that people think replacing the incumbent president with someone like Whitmer, or Booker, or Newsom would somehow boost turnout. No one knows who those people are.

That's what the convention is for and yes, people will watch after all this.

[Tom 2959]

“Don’t underestimate Joe Biden’s ability to fuck things up.” - Barack Obama

 

[Js1 85289]

2 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

It’s funny that people think replacing the incumbent president with someone like Whitmer, or Booker, or Newsom would somehow boost turnout. No one knows who those people are.

And that a good number of people won't immediately be turned off by the DNC "rigging" it for some preferred candidate.

[aggie08 21492]

Just now, hobbes2702 said:

It’s funny that people think replacing the incumbent president with someone like Whitmer, or Booker, or Newsom would somehow boost turnout. No one knows who those people are.

At this point, isn't it most important who they aren't? 

It can't be Newsom though, that much I agree with.

[Js1 85289]

Just now, Aqua Buddha said:

That's what the convention is for and yes, people will watch after all this.

It's not a god damn reality show or American Idol

[YGIFS 19449]

14 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

She went to Howard.

Yeah, I know.  Lame attempt at humor as per usual.  I just mean while she may like that position, the first female VP in U.S. history could run any university she wants.  Nothing wrong with Howard or brand loyalty, but she could helm Yale or Stanford if she wanted to.  I like her, but she's not having a great tenure from what I glean internally.  If she took over for an ailing or dead Biden one day in the next term, I'd be there with bells on at the swearing-in with my girls in tow.  But putting her up top for 2024 is just trouble.  

[hobbes2702 13029]

Just now, aggie08 said:

At this point, isn't it most important who they aren't? 

It can't be Newsom though, that much I agree with.

No it isn’t. Name recognition matters. There is zero chance that any of those people could GOTV more effectively than Biden. The next 5 months would be all about telling America about who they are and what they’ve accomplished. Sorry but we are past that stage already. We don’t have time to explain who the candidate is and what their policies are. GOTV is all that matters.

[CTC2 2791]

What some are missing in the media is that the whole reason Biden was seeking a second term was because all the polling showed that Harris would win the nomination in his absence.  If you look at the horse race polls of Democratic voters she leads with about 30-35% with Biden out of the race. 
Just about every way you look at it, internal polling shows she loses to Trump.  Her negatives are high and perceptions of her rightly or wrongly are not the best with independents. 
I’m certainly not advocating staying with Uncle Joe but the consequences of going with Harris or leapfrogging her are perilous as well. 
I just can’t believe this country is going to end with the Democrats essentially running around to the Benny Hill Theme. 

Edited July 2 by CTC2

[Aqua Buddha 14582]

1 minute ago, hobbes2702 said:

No it isn’t. Name recognition matters. There is zero chance that any of those people could GOTV more effectively than Biden. The next 5 months would be all about telling America about who they are and what they’ve accomplished. Sorry but we are past that stage already. We don’t have time to explain who the candidate is and what their policies are. GOTV is all that matters.

Gretchen Whitmer would GOTV like a MF'er.

[Texaus 377]

What about Dean Phillips? I know fuckall about him except that he was crucified for daring to go against the incumbent. Right about now he must be feeling somewhat vindicated. Isn’t Biden getting exposed like this pretty much exactly what he was saying would happen?

[hobbes2702 13029]

2 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

That's what the convention is for and yes, people will watch after all this.

You think the non clued in voters are going to watch the Dem convention? Go ask 10 people to tell you anything about Whitmer, Booker, or Newsom. 
Joe is old but when those people wonder into a voting booth they need a name they recognize, old or not. 

[Aqua Buddha 14582]

This dropped today.  Coincidence I'm sure:

[Red Five 40846]

1 minute ago, hobbes2702 said:

No it isn’t. Name recognition matters. There is zero chance that any of those people could GOTV more effectively than Biden. The next 5 months would be all about telling America about who they are and what they’ve accomplished. Sorry but we are past that stage already. We don’t have time to explain who the candidate is and what their policies are. GOTV is all that matters.

The election isn't next Tuesday. There is time.

[hobbes2702 13029]

1 minute ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Gretchen Whitmer would GOTV like a MF'er.

No she wouldn’t. No one has any clue who the fuck she is. Why are you pretending that name recognition doesn’t matter in the presidential election?

[Aqua Buddha 14582]

2 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

You think the non clued in voters are going to watch the Dem convention? Go ask 10 people to tell you anything about Whitmer, Booker, or Newsom. 
Joe is old but when those people wonder into a voting booth they need a name they recognize, old or not. 

[Js1 85289]

2 minutes ago, Texaus said:

What about Dean Phillips? I know fuckall about him except that he was crucified for daring to go against the incumbent. Right about now he must be feeling somewhat vindicated. Isn’t Biden getting exposed like this pretty much exactly what he was saying would happen?

Grifter.  He fucking sucks. 

[Aqua Buddha 14582]

1 minute ago, hobbes2702 said:

No she wouldn’t. No one has any clue who the fuck she is. Why are you pretending that name recognition doesn’t matter in the presidential election?

Why are you pretending there aren't 4 months between now and then and literally a billion dollars in advertising?  

[CTC2 2791]

4 minutes ago, Texaus said:

What about Dean Phillips? I know fuckall about him except that he was crucified for daring to go against the incumbent. Right about now he must be feeling somewhat vindicated. Isn’t Biden getting exposed like this pretty much exactly what he was saying would happen?

He sucks. 

[hobbes2702 13029]

1 minute ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Why are you pretending there aren't 4 months between now and then and literally a billion dollars in advertising?  

I wonder why the primaries aren’t held 4 months before the elections?

[YGIFS 19449]

4 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

This dropped today.  Coincidence I'm sure:

Goddamit, did she kill her dog too?  

3 minutes ago, Red Five said:

The election isn't next Tuesday. There is time.

I like most of your takes.  But "Hey there's four more months for America to get behind a guy getting really fucking old by the day" isn't a great campaign strategery.  

[aggie08 21492]

2 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

No it isn’t. Name recognition matters. There is zero chance that any of those people could GOTV more effectively than Biden. The next 5 months would be all about telling America about who they are and what they’ve accomplished. Sorry but we are past that stage already. We don’t have time to explain who the candidate is and what their policies are. GOTV is all that matters.

Hypothetically, who's changing their vote or staying home that was a Biden lock if Whitmer is the candidate? 

Conversely, the voting block of people looking for anyone younger and competent sounding is massive and growing. You think they'd be more likely to vote Biden in November because of (right now awful) name recognition? 

Obvious hypothetical as I understand the incredible difficulty of uniting behind one candidate in short notice.

[Aqua Buddha 14582]

Just now, hobbes2702 said:

I wonder why the primaries aren’t held 4 months before the elections?

She's been famous for like a week and half of America knows who Hawk Tuah girl is.  Give Whitmer $1B and four month and let the real pros handle the marketing and every single person will know who she is.

[Biff Tannen 45665]

15 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

I think that's also part of the problem.  

I'll admit to moments of "fuck it, burn this mother fucker to the ground".

So far, they've been brief and I come back to my senses, but I highly doubt I'm the only one feeling like that.

I don't think most people realize what they are actually proposing when they think that though.

[hobbes2702 13029]

Just now, YGIFS said:

Goddamit, did she kill her dog too?  

I like most of your takes.  But "Hey there's four more months for America to get behind a guy getting really fucking old by the day" isn't a great campaign strategery.  

It’s certainly a better idea than trying to American behind someone who’s name they’ve never even heard.

[Bama Llama 1450]

On 6/28/2024 at 6:31 PM, Michael Knight said:

Trump is 3 years younger than Biden and is insane

Reading this under your avatar is just perfect, a la Thelma and Louise driving off that bluff.  ZOOOOOM!

Your post sounds exactly like something HST would write today if he hadn’t blown his brains all over Owl Creek and had the ashes of what remained of hid brains shot out of a cannon.

 

[CTC2 2791]

If the nomination is up for grabs at the convention that’s an ugly process which will no doubt come off as a shit show mixed with protests about Gaza.  We are fucked. 

[Red Five 40846]

3 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

I like most of your takes.  But "Hey there's four more months for America to get behind a guy getting really fucking old by the day" isn't a great campaign strategery.  

What do you want me to say? It's not ideal. Nothing in this is ideal. But "oh well that's not enough time so I guess we have to run the guy who has trouble completing sentences that no one wants to vote for and is all but guaranteed to lose" is not the better strategy. 

Edit: I think you misunderstood my post.

Edited July 2 by Red Five

[hobbes2702 13029]

1 minute ago, aggie08 said:

Hypothetically, who's changing their vote or staying home that was a Biden lock if Whitmer is the candidate? 

Conversely, the voting block of people looking for anyone younger and competent sounding is massive and growing. You think they'd be more likely to vote Biden in November because of (right now awful) name recognition? 

Obvious hypothetical as I understand the incredible difficulty of uniting behind one candidate in short notice.

Independents. Thats whos staying home. 

[Aqua Buddha 14582]

1 minute ago, aggie08 said:

Hypothetically, who's changing their vote or staying home that was a Biden lock if Whitmer is the candidate? 

Conversely, the voting block of people looking for anyone younger and competent sounding is massive and growing. You think they'd be more likely to vote Biden in November because of (right now awful) name recognition? 

Obvious hypothetical as I understand the incredible difficulty of uniting behind one candidate in short notice.

Correct.  Dems could swap out Biden for the Hawk Tuah girl and lose zero votes.

[Biff Tannen 45665]

11 minutes ago, CTC2 said:

I just can’t believe this country is going to end with the Democrats essentially running around to the Benny Hill Theme. 

Seems about right to me, honestly.

 

14 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It's not a god damn reality show or American Idol

Isn't it though?  To a large portion of Americans, it absolutely 100% is.

[Js1 85289]

There’s a lot of assumption that the Biden/Harris campaign team, full of vets who have run presidential candidates and signed on to run an incumbent re-election campaign, are just going to shrug their shoulders and say okay and go work for whoever the DNC declares is the Biden/Harris replacement when they get kicked to the curb.

Because none of the names thrown around have a national ready campaign apparatus ready to hit the ground hard in July 2024. 

[aggie08 21492]

Just now, hobbes2702 said:

Independents. Thats whos staying home. 

Independents and apathetic voters now staying home because of Biden is what we've been talking about, my dude. Why are they more likely to stay home for Whitmer than they are for a severely in decline Biden, assuming that he doesn't go on a media blitz and turn the narrative around? (And let's not pretend his approval ratings were great before the debate.)

[Biff Tannen 45665]

5 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

half of America knows who Hawk Tuah girl is

I am not in this half and I plan to keep it that way.

[The Original Greaser Bob 2822]

4 minutes ago, CTC2 said:

If the nomination is up for grabs at the convention that’s an ugly process which will no doubt come off as a shit show mixed with protests about Gaza.  We are fucked. 

More opportunity to talk about how shitty Trump is.

And why are people certain that everyone will forget the debate but they'll remember some horse trading at the convention?

[Goredho 17397]

50 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Under the scenario where Biden is pressured to step down'

If Kamala is the nominee, she would lose because a large portion of the population are racist and/or misogynist. Wish it wasn't true, but it is. 

Of course the black vote would balk at replacing Kamala with Newsome. 

So fucked either way

Assuming everything you say could be proved to be true, and I don't really have reason to believe they wouldn't, the situation the Dems find themselves in is even more maddening.

1.  Their candidate Methuselah is someone who has aged out of being able to campaign much less be a defender of democracy against a would-be despot

2.  The least invasive alternative would be to replace him with the young VP, but they are an unviable candidate because they are a social experiment

3.  There are other bright young stars in the party that would be viable candidates, but they cannot be considered because that will piss off the people who wanted the social experiment as VP

4.  There is no coherent strategy and there are no contingencies.  We are just asked to remain calm, give them a vote and enjoy the band as democracy capsizes.

5.  When voters register their alarm, democrats call them morons and idiots for daring to wonder WTF is going on and not just voting mindlessly

None of those are the fault of Trump, the GOP, Fox News, Russia, CNN or dumb voters.  Those are all damming self-owns by the Democratic party and their constituents.  The only bright side I see at this point with what is looking like an increasingly likely Trump victory is that the leadership if not the whole of the Democratic party goes away.  Adios, motherfuckers.  Then hopefully something less impotently shitty can replace them/it.

[hobbes2702 13029]

6 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

She's been famous for like a week and half of America knows who Hawk Tuah girl is.  Give Whitmer $1B and four month and let the real pros handle the marketing and every single person will know who she is.

If you can’t understand that your post illustrates my point then I don’t know what to tell you.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33867]

Just now, Biff Tannen said:

I am not in this half and I plan to keep it that way.

you can't hide forever

[CTC2 2791]

1 minute ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

More opportunity to talk about how shitty Trump is.

And why are people certain that everyone will forget the debate but they'll remember some horse trading at the convention?

I don’t think people will forget either. My only point is that all that’s left are a bunch of shitty alternatives. No path forward is clearly better than another. 

[aggie08 21492]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

There’s a lot of assumption that the Biden/Harris campaign team, full of vets who have run presidential candidates and signed on to run an incumbent re-election campaign, are just going to shrug their shoulders and say okay and go work for whoever the DNC declares is the Biden/Harris replacement when they get kicked to the curb.

Because none of the names thrown around have a national ready campaign apparatus ready to hit the ground hard in July 2024. 

These are the points I look forward to from you, as someone who understands the apparatus of politics far greater than I do. 

I assume all of that donation money has been "bookmarked" for Biden as well, yeah? He can't just sign it over to the new guy/girl in the incredibly unlikely (impossible) event that the DNC and Biden are united in the nominee?

[Js1 85289]

3 minutes ago, Goredho said:

wanted the social experiment as VP

Okay that was gross dude. Uncalled for 

[YGIFS 19449]

Just now, Red Five said:

What do you want me to say? It's not ideal. Nothing in this is ideal. But "oh well that's not enough time so I guess we have to run the guy who has trouble completing sentences that no one wants to vote for and is all but guaranteed to lose" is not the better strategy. 

True.  The Biden voters will quell their fears and still get out there for him.  Straight-ticket R's and MAGA cultists will get out for their guy.  Nothing will change on percentages.  But for EC purposes, it's just who stays home this time around---not who turns out.  You can't offend milquetoast Trumpers too much or they vote to spite you, you can't feed any gas on the "Biden is Senile" fire anymore because that brings them out, too.  Party in-fighting looks suspicious and weak at this stage in the game.  

But instead we're gonna spin our wheels worrying about 90 kids at Columbia who may not vote for Biden because of Gaza and a few stutters when everything should be thrown at 90,000 voters in the Rust Belt to make them feel just ashamed enough about Trump that they don't vote at all.  This thing isn't gonna be won by Gavin Newsom, or Young People, or Green Party defectors.  The only way this works is a few million middle-bloc voters of Trump stay home.  

I'm listening to these fundraising bundlers and consultants spew bullshit "With your support, we can get out the 18-35 Latino vote in Arizona."  Yeah, that thing that's never changed an election, ever. 

Believe it or not folks, there are still Trump voters who feel shame and regret.  I know you think all 75mm of them are evil and have no conscious.  But a few of them still feel and want to be part of society.  You won't get them to break for Biden, but you can break them just enough to have a seat in November and get right with God.  

[Aqua Buddha 14582]

3 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

If you can’t understand that your post illustrates my point then I don’t know what to tell you.

Quit being obtuse.  In today's media landscape, 95% of all likely voters will know her life story by Labor Day.

[DixonHur 11295]

20 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

It’s funny that people think replacing the incumbent president with someone like Whitmer, or Booker, or Newsom would somehow boost turnout. No one knows who those people are.

Opinions like this are maddening when we literally have people posting anecdotal information about their peer group having people who would vote for someone other than Biden.

It's like yeah, we hear you but don't believe you... We think people will vote for a corpse because he's the incumbent and it's the "right thing" to do 

[Js1 85289]

1 minute ago, aggie08 said:

These are the points I look forward to from you, as someone who understands the apparatus of politics far greater than I do. 

I assume all of that donation money has been "bookmarked" for Biden as well, yeah? He can't just sign it over to the new guy/girl in the incredibly unlikely (impossible) event that the DNC and Biden are united in the nominee?

I think Harris could inherit all that money since she’s part of the ticket already? But I don’t know enough about campaign finance laws

And god help us if someone is chosen who has been assembling a shadow campaign team. Would rip the party apart pretty fast, being seen as backstabbing the incumbents 

[Pancho 44712]

6 minutes ago, CTC2 said:

If the nomination is up for grabs at the convention that’s an ugly process which will no doubt come off as a shit show mixed with protests about Gaza.  We are fucked. 

There’s a VEEP episode on this so we already know how it would play out 

[Biff Tannen 45665]

5 minutes ago, Goredho said:

The only bright side I see at this point with what is looking like an increasingly likely Trump victory is that the leadership if not the whole of the Democratic party goes away.  Adios, motherfuckers.  Then hopefully something less impotently shitty can replace them/it.

[wildcat09 29347]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

I think Harris could inherit all that money since she’s part of the ticket already? But I don’t know enough about campaign finance laws

And god help us if someone is chosen who has been assembling a shadow campaign team. Would rip the party apart pretty fast, being seen as backstabbing the incumbents 

Biden and Harris can spend that money. Other candidates would have to start from scratch.

[Js1 85289]

Just now, wildcat09 said:

Biden and Harris can spend that money. Other candidates would have to start from scratch.

You can ask for refunds and re-donate it but it would be messy as fuck

[aggie08 21492]

Just now, wildcat09 said:

Biden and Harris can spend that money. Other candidates would have to start from scratch.

Ouch.

[Goredho 17397]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Okay that was gross dude. Uncalled for 

Maybe, but is it inaccurate?  I mean, everyone is saying Kamala can't be who takes over for Biden because she's black and/or a woman and won't win.  None of which matters to me personally when deciding on who I'll vote for, but if it matters to the populace, then clearly her vice presidency was an idea whose time had not yet come.