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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted

There’s a lot of assumption that the Biden/Harris campaign team, full of vets who have run presidential candidates and signed on to run an incumbent re-election campaign, are just going to shrug their shoulders and say okay and go work for whoever the DNC declares is the Biden/Harris replacement when they get kicked to the curb.

Because none of the names thrown around have a national ready campaign apparatus ready to hit the ground hard in July 2024. 

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Posted
Just now, hobbes2702 said:

Independents. Thats whos staying home. 

Independents and apathetic voters now staying home because of Biden is what we've been talking about, my dude. Why are they more likely to stay home for Whitmer than they are for a severely in decline Biden, assuming that he doesn't go on a media blitz and turn the narrative around? (And let's not pretend his approval ratings were great before the debate.)

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Posted
4 minutes ago, CTC2 said:

If the nomination is up for grabs at the convention that’s an ugly process which will no doubt come off as a shit show mixed with protests about Gaza.  We are fucked. 

More opportunity to talk about how shitty Trump is.

And why are people certain that everyone will forget the debate but they'll remember some horse trading at the convention?

Posted
50 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Under the scenario where Biden is pressured to step down'

If Kamala is the nominee, she would lose because a large portion of the population are racist and/or misogynist. Wish it wasn't true, but it is. 

Of course the black vote would balk at replacing Kamala with Newsome. 

So fucked either way

Assuming everything you say could be proved to be true, and I don't really have reason to believe they wouldn't, the situation the Dems find themselves in is even more maddening.

1.  Their candidate Methuselah is someone who has aged out of being able to campaign much less be a defender of democracy against a would-be despot

2.  The least invasive alternative would be to replace him with the young VP, but they are an unviable candidate because they are a social experiment

3.  There are other bright young stars in the party that would be viable candidates, but they cannot be considered because that will piss off the people who wanted the social experiment as VP

4.  There is no coherent strategy and there are no contingencies.  We are just asked to remain calm, give them a vote and enjoy the band as democracy capsizes.

5.  When voters register their alarm, democrats call them morons and idiots for daring to wonder WTF is going on and not just voting mindlessly

None of those are the fault of Trump, the GOP, Fox News, Russia, CNN or dumb voters.  Those are all damming self-owns by the Democratic party and their constituents.  The only bright side I see at this point with what is looking like an increasingly likely Trump victory is that the leadership if not the whole of the Democratic party goes away.  Adios, motherfuckers.  Then hopefully something less impotently shitty can replace them/it.

Posted
6 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

She's been famous for like a week and half of America knows who Hawk Tuah girl is.  Give Whitmer $1B and four month and let the real pros handle the marketing and every single person will know who she is.

If you can’t understand that your post illustrates my point then I don’t know what to tell you.

Posted
1 minute ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

More opportunity to talk about how shitty Trump is.

And why are people certain that everyone will forget the debate but they'll remember some horse trading at the convention?

I don’t think people will forget either. My only point is that all that’s left are a bunch of shitty alternatives. No path forward is clearly better than another. 

Posted
1 minute ago, Js1 said:

There’s a lot of assumption that the Biden/Harris campaign team, full of vets who have run presidential candidates and signed on to run an incumbent re-election campaign, are just going to shrug their shoulders and say okay and go work for whoever the DNC declares is the Biden/Harris replacement when they get kicked to the curb.

Because none of the names thrown around have a national ready campaign apparatus ready to hit the ground hard in July 2024. 

These are the points I look forward to from you, as someone who understands the apparatus of politics far greater than I do. 

I assume all of that donation money has been "bookmarked" for Biden as well, yeah? He can't just sign it over to the new guy/girl in the incredibly unlikely (impossible) event that the DNC and Biden are united in the nominee?

Posted
3 minutes ago, Goredho said:

wanted the social experiment as VP

Okay that was gross dude. Uncalled for 

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Posted
Just now, Red Five said:

What do you want me to say? It's not ideal. Nothing in this is ideal. But "oh well that's not enough time so I guess we have to run the guy who has trouble completing sentences that no one wants to vote for and is all but guaranteed to lose" is not the better strategy. 

True.  The Biden voters will quell their fears and still get out there for him.  Straight-ticket R's and MAGA cultists will get out for their guy.  Nothing will change on percentages.  But for EC purposes, it's just who stays home this time around---not who turns out.  You can't offend milquetoast Trumpers too much or they vote to spite you, you can't feed any gas on the "Biden is Senile" fire anymore because that brings them out, too.  Party in-fighting looks suspicious and weak at this stage in the game.  

But instead we're gonna spin our wheels worrying about 90 kids at Columbia who may not vote for Biden because of Gaza and a few stutters when everything should be thrown at 90,000 voters in the Rust Belt to make them feel just ashamed enough about Trump that they don't vote at all.  This thing isn't gonna be won by Gavin Newsom, or Young People, or Green Party defectors.  The only way this works is a few million middle-bloc voters of Trump stay home.  

I'm listening to these fundraising bundlers and consultants spew bullshit "With your support, we can get out the 18-35 Latino vote in Arizona."  Yeah, that thing that's never changed an election, ever. 

Believe it or not folks, there are still Trump voters who feel shame and regret.  I know you think all 75mm of them are evil and have no conscious.  But a few of them still feel and want to be part of society.  You won't get them to break for Biden, but you can break them just enough to have a seat in November and get right with God.  

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Posted
3 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

If you can’t understand that your post illustrates my point then I don’t know what to tell you.

Quit being obtuse.  In today's media landscape, 95% of all likely voters will know her life story by Labor Day.

Posted
20 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

It’s funny that people think replacing the incumbent president with someone like Whitmer, or Booker, or Newsom would somehow boost turnout. No one knows who those people are.

Opinions like this are maddening when we literally have people posting anecdotal information about their peer group having people who would vote for someone other than Biden.

It's like yeah, we hear you but don't believe you... We think people will vote for a corpse because he's the incumbent and it's the "right thing" to do 

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Posted
1 minute ago, aggie08 said:

These are the points I look forward to from you, as someone who understands the apparatus of politics far greater than I do. 

I assume all of that donation money has been "bookmarked" for Biden as well, yeah? He can't just sign it over to the new guy/girl in the incredibly unlikely (impossible) event that the DNC and Biden are united in the nominee?

I think Harris could inherit all that money since she’s part of the ticket already? But I don’t know enough about campaign finance laws

And god help us if someone is chosen who has been assembling a shadow campaign team. Would rip the party apart pretty fast, being seen as backstabbing the incumbents 

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Posted
6 minutes ago, CTC2 said:

If the nomination is up for grabs at the convention that’s an ugly process which will no doubt come off as a shit show mixed with protests about Gaza.  We are fucked. 

There’s a VEEP episode on this so we already know how it would play out 

selina meyer veep season 6 GIF by Veep HBO

Posted
5 minutes ago, Goredho said:

The only bright side I see at this point with what is looking like an increasingly likely Trump victory is that the leadership if not the whole of the Democratic party goes away.  Adios, motherfuckers.  Then hopefully something less impotently shitty can replace them/it.

200w.gif?cid=6c09b9529zcqtswzy8wokovdk9r

Posted
1 minute ago, Js1 said:

I think Harris could inherit all that money since she’s part of the ticket already? But I don’t know enough about campaign finance laws

And god help us if someone is chosen who has been assembling a shadow campaign team. Would rip the party apart pretty fast, being seen as backstabbing the incumbents 

Biden and Harris can spend that money. Other candidates would have to start from scratch.

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Posted
Just now, wildcat09 said:

Biden and Harris can spend that money. Other candidates would have to start from scratch.

You can ask for refunds and re-donate it but it would be messy as fuck

Posted
3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Okay that was gross dude. Uncalled for 

Maybe, but is it inaccurate?  I mean, everyone is saying Kamala can't be who takes over for Biden because she's black and/or a woman and won't win.  None of which matters to me personally when deciding on who I'll vote for, but if it matters to the populace, then clearly her vice presidency was an idea whose time had not yet come.

Posted
7 minutes ago, Goredho said:

Assuming everything you say could be proved to be true, and I don't really have reason to believe they wouldn't, the situation the Dems find themselves in is even more maddening.

1.  Their candidate Methuselah is someone who has aged out of being able to campaign much less be a defender of democracy against a would-be despot

2.  The least invasive alternative would be to replace him with the young VP, but they are an unviable candidate because they are a social experiment

3.  There are other bright young stars in the party that would be viable candidates, but they cannot be considered because that will piss off the people who wanted the social experiment as VP

4.  There is no coherent strategy and there are no contingencies.  We are just asked to remain calm, give them a vote and enjoy the band as democracy capsizes.

5.  When voters register their alarm, democrats call them morons and idiots for daring to wonder WTF is going on and not just voting mindlessly

None of those are the fault of Trump, the GOP, Fox News, Russia, CNN or dumb voters.  Those are all damming self-owns by the Democratic party and their constituents.  The only bright side I see at this point with what is looking like an increasingly likely Trump victory is that the leadership if not the whole of the Democratic party goes away.  Adios, motherfuckers.  Then hopefully something less impotently shitty can replace them/it.

Really weird post

Posted (edited)

Y’all, a black man from Hawaii named Hussein beat a McCain and a Romney. Social experiment or not, Kamala was built for this moment, especially after Roe was overturned.  I mean, she will suck as President but I have all the confidence she can beat Trump in 2024. 
 

edited for derp on Bush

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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Posted
4 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Quit being obtuse.  In today's media landscape, 95% of all likely voters will know her life story by Labor Day.

No they won’t, because they are more concerned with hawk tuah. 

Posted
Just now, wildcat09 said:

Biden and Harris can spend that money. Other candidates would have to start from scratch.

Yep, this.  It's the one loophole in federal elections.  The POTUS/VP candidates can use the money interchangeably.  And can even cut it up if they lose anyway they want.  A Senator can't just hand off $50mm to another candidate if the drop out or lose.  But yeah, another candidate emerges on the DNC ticket...they can't onboard that money.  It would have be refunded to the donors and then re-donated to the new ticket.  Not terribly difficult but will raise a lot of eyebrows, many will feel offended and not make the re-up, and it's absolute cannon fodder for the media.  

Posted
5 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Opinions like this are maddening when we literally have people posting anecdotal information about their peer group having people who would vote for someone other than Biden.

It's like yeah, we hear you but don't believe you... We think people will vote for a corpse because he's the incumbent and it's the "right thing" to do 

That’s precisely not what I said but ok.

Posted
2 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Opinions like this are maddening when we literally have people posting anecdotal information about their peer group having people who would vote for someone other than Biden.

It's like yeah, we hear you but don't believe you... We think people will vote for a corpse because he's the incumbent and it's the "right thing" to do 

I would caution anyone who thinks replacing Biden gives the Dems a better chance at victory across the board than that which currently exists, to tap the brakes. And overlooking VP Harris would simply de-energize the party’s most faithful voting bloc and all but ensure defeat. That’s just real talk. We have to think this through without be so reflexively emotional.

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Posted
13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

There’s a lot of assumption that the Biden/Harris campaign team, full of vets who have run presidential candidates and signed on to run an incumbent re-election campaign, are just going to shrug their shoulders and say okay and go work for whoever the DNC declares is the Biden/Harris replacement when they get kicked to the curb.

Because none of the names thrown around have a national ready campaign apparatus ready to hit the ground hard in July 2024. 

this is why it's Biden no matter what. I can't believe this isn't understood. the party isn't running for office, a candidate is and he has his or her own enterprise - funders, staffers, key executives, operatives, intel, data, etc. etc. Yes the parties help their candidates and there are organizations through out the country that try to help but in the end, the candidate has his or her own apparatus and that isn't just seamlessly handed off with 4 months to go. it would be an epic disaster behind the scenes not to mention any sort of infighting seen publicly.

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Posted
Just now, troph said:

this is why it's Biden no matter what. I can't believe this isn't understood. the party isn't running for office, a candidate is and he has his or her own enterprise - funders, staffers, key executives, operatives, intel, data, etc. etc. Yes the parties help their candidates and there are organizations through out the country that try to help but in the end, the candidate has his or her own apparatus and that isn't just seamlessly handed off with 4 months to go. it would be an epic disaster behind the scenes not to mention any sort of infighting seen publicly.

The media would have a field day. 

Today: Biden has to step down, he can’t run and win

Tomorrow: DEMS IN DISARRAY!!!

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Posted
Just now, Js1 said:

The media would have a field day. 

Today: Biden has to step down, he can’t run and win

Tomorrow: DEMS IN DISARRAY!!!

Yup. We would gain a few young people who think Biden is too old and we would lose everyone in the middle that doesn’t pay attention to the details.

Posted
2 minutes ago, troph said:

this is why it's Biden no matter what. I can't believe this isn't understood.

Coin flip on the betting markets. Go make a fortune. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Satchel said:

We have to think this through without be so reflexively emotional.

Agree.  I admit, I'm fairly disturbed as well, but I think it just shows how freaked out everyone is about what the Rs have done.  I haven't seen anyone on the right screaming about how the dotard should step aside as a candidate.  They've been behind him for YEARS, even when it became clear what he was.  

It makes me crazy that somehow the Dems are to blame for having to fight against a cult that wants a dictator.  In a sane world, it would be like 80/20, Biden/dipshit.  But no, here we are, and let's all blame the Dems for the shortcomings of the right.

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Posted
7 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

Yep, this.  It's the one loophole in federal elections.  The POTUS/VP candidates can use the money interchangeably.  And can even cut it up if they lose anyway they want.  A Senator can't just hand off $50mm to another candidate if the drop out or lose.  But yeah, another candidate emerges on the DNC ticket...they can't onboard that money.  It would have be refunded to the donors and then re-donated to the new ticket.  Not terribly difficult but will raise a lot of eyebrows, many will feel offended and not make the re-up, and it's absolute cannon fodder for the media.  

How much of the money is actually in the Biden/Harris campaign as compared to PACs?

My understanding is the PACs can spend their money on any candidate so it’s not tied to Biden/Harris.

Posted
Just now, Biff Tannen said:

Agree.  I admit, I'm fairly disturbed as well, but I think it just shows how freaked out everyone is about what the Rs have done.  I haven't seen anyone on the right screaming about how the dotard should step aside as a candidate.  They've been behind him for YEARS, even when it became clear what he was.  

It makes me crazy that somehow the Dems are to blame for having to fight against a cult that wants a dictator.  In a sane world, it would be like 80/20, Biden/dipshit.  But no, here we are, and let's all blame the Dems for the shortcomings of the right.

David Byrne Snl GIF by Saturday Night Live

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Posted
3 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

How much of the money is actually in the Biden/Harris campaign as compared to PACs?

My understanding is the PACs can spend their money on any candidate so it’s not tied to Biden/Harris.

The Biden campaign takes way more direct dollars. The Trump campaign relies on PAC money to spend on legal bills 

Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, GW Hayduke said:

There hasn’t been a need for guardrails with Biden. He has been running a great administration. Arguably, the best one in the last 50 years. 

I agree the Biden admin has been effective, but just because an administration is running smoothly doesn’t mean Biden has been an effective leader, or even that he has been the leader.  His cabinet is full of competent people who could be working under their own authority.  We don’t have visibility into that; we did have visibility into Biden’s competency on the debate stage and it was clear he’s not fit.

Fwiw, I think the argument that Biden is an empty suit and that Harris/Buttigieg/Blinken/Austin/Sullivan are working as a Voltron President is valid, and a significant justification for continuing to support Biden even though he’s clearly unfit for office.

Edited by Snake Diggity
Posted
11 minutes ago, hornmpa96 said:

How much of the money is actually in the Biden/Harris campaign as compared to PACs?

My understanding is the PACs can spend their money on any candidate so it’s not tied to Biden/Harris.

Correct, the PAC's of any stripe can put any amount behind anybody at anytime---just takes a 2-page FEC filing.  But the Biden/Harris campaign onboards a lot, like tens to hundreds of millions a lot, from direct donations.  It would be an extreme headache and media fallout to restructure that.  Nothing like it has even been gamed out, let alone attempted in real life.  

Posted
4 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I agree the Biden admin has been effective, but just because an administration is running smoothly doesn’t mean Biden has been an effective leader, or even that he has been the leader.  His cabinet is full of competent people who could be working under their own authority.  We don’t have visibility into that; we did have visibility into Biden’s competency on the debate stage and it was clear he’s not fit.

Fwiw, I think the argument that Biden is an empty suit and that Harris/Buttigieg/Blinken/Austin/Sullivan are working as a Voltron President is valid, and a significant justification for continuing to support Biden even though he’s clearly unfit for office.

None of what you said is based in any kind of fact.  You, nor anyone else here, has any clue what is going on behind the scenes.

Posted
18 minutes ago, Satchel said:

We have to think this through without be so reflexively emotional.

This is a live look at the CR since Thursday:

 

Spoiler

image.gif.530ca93979bc5547a6eaf9dbc3b8bdf5.gif

 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

We haven't even talked about how undemocratic it would be to change candidates after the presumptive nominee won all of the primaries with actual votes.

Do you even Chicago, bro?  

Posted
Just now, David Dennison said:

We haven't even talked about how undemocratic it would be to change candidates after the presumptive nominee won all of the primaries with actual votes.

Awkward Jay Z GIF by Complex

Posted

The fear of feeling some sense of shame or embarrassment over who you vote for is a very real thing. 

Meanwhile, MAGA is completely shameless. It's their superpower, and it's why we're fucked.

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Posted (edited)

I went and watched a good chunk of the Howard stern interview from just under 2 months ago and feel like I'm taking crazy pills reading the last few pages of this thread. I know we've all got a recency bias but there's no way he's declined that much in the last 7 weeks.  I'm inclined to think the performance was down to some combination of cold meds, too much debate prep, and the thing being at 9 pm Eastern. 

Edited by elfenix
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