2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Schulz2.0 28951]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/jul/03/kamala-harris-joe-biden-election-2024-democrats

[Michael Knight 12976]

Democrats have always been terrible with messaging 

Donald Trump is convicted felon, rapist, racist, extreme narcissist, stupid, an idiotic braggart, habitual liar, ruined America's streak for peaceful transfers of power, weakens our allies and admires our enemies, has the worst fucking kids, oh and is an ugly orange stained loser with weird fucking hair. But the prevailing narrative for this election is Joe Biden is old. Now alot of that is because our corporate media oligarchs keep repeating that point to the public and treat Trump as if he was a legitimate candidate.

[Js1 85272]

Okay Medhi, that’s rude. Some of us aren’t geriatric and are only engaged and dependable between 10am and 4pm

[Rex Kramer 1332]

29 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Emphasized for truth.  If you think that nominating a black woman to be voted on by the shit-for-brains voter in this fetid shithole of a country has ANY chance of turning out well, you haven't been paying attention.  To anything.  At all.

We are a lot closer to the country that didn't allow women to vote or have a credit card, and that lynched black people with no repercussions, than we are to a country that will elect a black woman president.  You don't have to like that truth, but it doesn't make it any less true.

Horse hockey. Unless you think the country has regressed since Obama’s convincing victories?  Wait don’t answer that. You in particular. 

In all honesty I don’t think the country wouldn’t elect a woman or black woman. Hilary was untenable (at the time). Kamala likely will be too. If she were inclined Michelle would win easily. Maga will vote how they’ll vote and it wouldn’t matter. 

[Firemans4Horn 18034]

2 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

Democrats have always been terrible with messaging 

Donald Trump is convicted felon, rapist, racist, extreme narcissist, stupid, an idiotic braggart, habitual liar, ruined America's streak for peaceful transfers of power, weakens our allies and admires our enemies, has the worst fucking kids, oh and is an ugly orange stained loser with weird fucking hair. But the prevailing narrative for this election is Joe Biden is old. Now alot of that is because our corporate media oligarchs keep repeating that point to the public and treat Trump as if he was a legitimate candidate.

Biden can no longer make that message.  Because he is 81 years old in obvious cognitive decline. 

[hobbes2702 13029]

Just now, Rex Kramer said:

Horse hockey. Unless you think the country has regressed since Obama’s convincing victories?  Wait don’t answer that. You in particular. 

In all honesty I don’t think the country wouldn’t elect a woman or black woman. Hilary was untenable (at the time). Kamala likely will be too. If she were inclined Michelle would win easily. Maga will vote how they’ll vote and it wouldn’t matter. 

You think the country hasn’t regressed since then?

[chainsaw 9857]

7 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

The CBS poll from today showed Biden up in PA I believe. 
But also, yea we should ignore the polling. Again Dems have overperformed the polls nationwide basically since Trump was elected. 
We also know the issues with polling this early.

Do you think Kamala would have a better chance of holding the rust belt than Joe? I don’t. Even with Whitmer as a VP. I see basically zero chance that an all female ticket could carry that part of the country. Ask Hillary

I agree no all-female ticket. But they will be livid if Kamala is passed up for the top job.

I agree she doesn't deserve it, but there's no way she or her fans would accept being VP to someone besides Biden. And the optics of the black woman with the most qualifications being passed up for someone else that probably isn't a black woman? Horrible.

This isn't Bellmont. It's the Democratic party and that shit matters.

So, I've come to accept that the only way it won't be Harris is if she rejects the opportunity and her base truly believes that it was her idea to reject it. And I've come to accept that that probably won't happen because the only way the money raised by the campaign doesn't go away is if she's on the ticket, which means she has to explain why she'd rather be VP than President in a way that doesn't sound like complete bullshit.

It's obvious she wants to be president, and a few clips from the 2020 primary debates where she laid into Joe Biden prove it.

That's where we're at. It's gonna be Harris / TBD.

[Dahobbs 17522]

16 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

So 8 years of y'all and the media talking about Trump tapping into an ugly and unengaged portion of the American electorate.  And the grand idea is to put a new ticket forward topped by somebody that will bring out even more of the ugly and unengaged portion of the American electorate, a significant portion of whom were somewhat likely to sit this one out?  Because reasons?  

Oh yeah, totally forgot.  This is the election cycle to tell moderates and independents like me that it's time to try something bold and progressive with 7 million swing state lunatics just begging for a reason to get up off their recliners and vote for Trump.  If only the party had 3.5+ years to figure this out ahead of time.  Most of the folks you've mentioned on here are perfectly electable and can raise money and kickass on TV.  But your party doesn't win if all the straight-ticket, MAGA lunatics, middle-of-the-roaders, plus a few million new lunatics turn out to spite some of the nominees you're talking about.  Suppress the unsettled Trump voter turnout.  That's the only way this works.  But yeah, maybe a youth music festival for Kamala will save the Republic.  Where the fuck do these ideas come from?  

To be fair, you have terrible ideas and share a significant portion of the responsibility for the failures of your former party, including Trump. 

[bolverk 29653]

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It's a lifetime until the election.

A good ABC interview on Friday, a fantastic DNC speech.  More attacks on Project 2025, reminders about Dobbs/etc.  More good econ news.  One or two fantastic hurricane responses.

The fat old bastard could also have a heart attack in the next few months.

1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

So what you're saying is, an 81 year old man who already shows signs of slowing down has to run the table until November.

RIDE OR DIE!!!!!

Four years ago, the 78-year-old guy had trouble navigating a ramp, drinking a glass of water, had to undergo cognitive tests.

 

Again, why do we ignore that asshole's infirmities and how he's declined since then?

Biden had a horrible night on one stage, while Trump had numerous brain glitches over the past few months at his rallies aside from his insane ramblings like confusing Haley for Pelosi and Obama for Biden.

Has everyone forgotten this speech: "We are a nation that just recently heard that Saudi Arabia and Russia...ooh... aah." The press would call for Biden to step down if he glitched like this quick clip. Why haven't they with Trump?

https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5108747/user-clip-half-minute-sentence

Even the majority of posters in this thread, which are overwhelmingly against Trump, seem to have forgotten that Trump has been showing signs of slipping.

*****

Here are my unsolicited opinions:

I'm not comfortable with an 80-year-old in the White House, whether that's Trump or Biden.

Biden's speech impediment seems to have worsened, and he mumbles more. The timbre of his voice also sounds like he's losing his hearing, which might explain some of the mumbling. These issues are on top of the fact that I feel like he's never been a good orator. While those are terrible qualities in a candidate whose primary job is communication, they don't necessarily translate to bad decision-making (aided by advisors) while occupying the office, which matters most as president.

Aside from all of that, Biden had a hectic international travel schedule in June, followed by week-long intense preparations for the debate. He may well have simply been showing signs of mental/physical exhaustion while on cold meds when he was up on that stage.

I can't yet determine his "fitness" for the job to my own satisfaction, as we don't have too many data points of Biden performing that badly on camera. He seemed fine during his speech in Normandy at the beginning of June. I think a lot depends on how the interview goes in a couple of days, focusing on coherence and intelligibility. In other words, I'll pay attention to what he says as much as how he says it to discern whether it's speech-related communication or brain-related cognition.

If it goes poorly, I'm mentally preparing for him to step aside for Harris or whomever. I guess that also applies to that happening even if it does go well since there seems to be an air of inevitability about it right now. It's beyond sad that we've reached this point, but I'll wholeheartedly support anyone on the ticket.

Democracy over destruction.

[troph 24781]

1 minute ago, bolverk said:

The fat old bastard could also have a heart attack in the next few months.

Four years ago, the 78-year-old guy had trouble navigating a ramp, drinking a glass of water, had to undergo cognitive tests.

 

Again, why do we ignore that asshole's infirmities and how he's declined since then?

Biden had a horrible night on one stage, while Trump had numerous brain glitches over the past few months at his rallies aside from his insane ramblings like confusing Haley for Pelosi and Obama for Biden.

Has everyone forgotten this speech: "We are a nation that just recently heard that Saudi Arabia and Russia...ooh... aah." The press would call for Biden to step down if he glitched like this quick clip. Why haven't they with Trump?

https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5108747/user-clip-half-minute-sentence

Even the majority of posters in this thread, which are overwhelmingly against Trump, seem to have forgotten that Trump has been showing signs of slipping.

*****

Here are my unsolicited opinions:

I'm not comfortable with an 80-year-old in the White House, whether that's Trump or Biden.

Biden's speech impediment seems to have worsened, and he mumbles more. The timbre of his voice also sounds like he's losing his hearing, which might explain some of the mumbling. These issues are on top of the fact that I feel like he's never been a good orator. While those are terrible qualities in a candidate whose primary job is communication, they don't necessarily translate to bad decision-making (aided by advisors) while occupying the office, which matters most as president.

Aside from all of that, Biden had a hectic international travel schedule in June, followed by week-long intense preparations for the debate. He may well have simply been showing signs of mental/physical exhaustion while on cold meds when he was up on that stage.

I can't yet determine his "fitness" for the job to my own satisfaction, as we don't have too many data points of Biden performing that badly on camera. He seemed fine during his speech in Normandy at the beginning of June. I think a lot depends on how the interview goes in a couple of days, focusing on coherence and intelligibility. In other words, I'll pay attention to what he says as much as how he says it to discern whether it's speech-related communication or brain-related cognition.

If it goes poorly, I'm mentally preparing for him to step aside for Harris or whomever. I guess that also applies to that happening even if it does go well since there seems to be an air of inevitability about it right now. It's beyond sad that we've reached this point, but I'll wholeheartedly support anyone on the ticket.

Democracy over destruction.

spot on.

[hobbes2702 13029]

3 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I agree no all-female ticket. But they will be livid if Kamala is passed up for the top job.

I agree she doesn't deserve it, but there's no way she or her fans would accept being VP to someone besides Biden. And the optics of the black woman with the most qualifications being passed up for someone else that probably isn't a black woman? Horrible.

This isn't Bellmont. It's the Democratic party and that shit matters.

So, I've come to accept that the only way it won't be Harris is if she rejects the opportunity and her base truly believes that it was her idea to reject it. And I've come to accept that that probably won't happen because the only way the money raised by the campaign doesn't go away is if she's on the ticket, which means she has to explain why she'd rather be VP than President in a way that doesn't sound like complete bullshit.

It's obvious she wants to be president, and a few clips from the 2020 primary debates where she laid into Joe Biden prove it.

That's where we're at. It's gonna be Harris / TBD.

I don’t like Kamala. She’s a cop imo. But I think she’s the only real option if Joe were to step down. And that’s the problem. I would be much more confident in Joe winning than her. 

[Js1 85272]

2 minutes ago, bolverk said:

followed by week-long intense preparations for the debate.

This was by far the biggest mistake. It was never going to be a debate of substance. They should have just let Scranton Joe loose from the start 

[YGIFS 19449]

7 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

To be fair, you have terrible ideas and share a significant portion of the responsibility for the failures of your former party, including Trump. 

I was never a member of the Republican Party, never voted straight-ticket, never donated to the RNC or RPT.  Did far more to beat Trump than you and your ten closest associates ever did.  Been probably a 33/33/33 voter between L/R/D most of my adult life.  Been appointed to multiple commissions by Democratic elected officials.  I don't get to live in la-la land and pretend that more ugliness is not just yearning for a reason to come back out to the polls to vote against a woman or person of color this cycle.  It's a fool's errand, and this isn't the year to run that errand.  But you put your yardsign, do your blockwalking, and get out your bumper sticker and let bad people  try to get to Mar-a-Lago's food supplier.  

Edited July 3 by YGIFS

[Dahobbs 17522]

2 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

I was never a member of the Republican Party, never voted straight-ticket, never donated to the RNC or RPT.  Did far more to beat Trump than you and your ten closest associates ever did.  Been probably a 33/33/33 voter between L/R/D most of my adult life.  Been appointed to multiple commissions by Democratic elected officials.  I don't get to live in la-la land and pretend that more ugliness is just yearning for a reason to come back out to the polls to vote against a woman or person of color this cycle.  It's a fool's errand, and this isn't the year to run that errand.  But you put your yardsign, do your blockwalking, and get out your bumper sticker and let bad people  try to get to Mar-a-Lago's food supplier.  

Keep telling yourself that. We know you will not stop telling the rest of us. 

Edited July 3 by Dahobbs

[Bozo_Casanova 26434]

Look - all this bullshit about Kamala Harris can't win because black/women is loser talk, and wrong besides. Hillary Clinton tried to sell the idea that she was the only choice in 08  because the alternative was a black man named Hussein. But, it turned out that the black guy named Hussein was just really gifted when it came to talking to white people in Iowa and Florida. And it turned out Hillary couldn't win any of them, or Michigan, Ohio, PA or Wisconsin.  
I think it was @hayden_horn who told a story in 2008 about some cracker in Georgia saying that he was going to "vote for the n----r" because he thought America needed to change. Low-intensity racists and sexists are perfectly happy voting for a black person or a woman on an individual basis when it suits them. It's the political version of "some of my best friends.". They just don't want to be punished for it. That's the genius of Obama. He understood working class, rural whites better than most people on this board, and he knew how to get their votes without trying to convert their biases. But for those of you who disagree with me, take a moment and think about whether the people we are talking about - the small number of persuadable independents or libertarians or maybe traditional Republicans who can't stand Trump would hesitate for a second to vote for Tim Scott or Nikki Haley. 

Kamala Harris can win, if
1) the window of the campaign is short enough to keep her out of harms way and 
2) the optics are crafted in such as way as to make her the hero in the story

If they have mini primary (even just kayfabe) she comes out of the process with an extremely strong hand and a good chance of winning, despite not being a good candidate under normal circumstances. If he resigns and she takes office and lays out a bold agenda, that's probably the cleanest path with the best optics, even though it enlarges the attack surface.  On the other hand, it Biden stays in office but simply anoints her as the nominee without an open process, she seems like a sitting duck and her chances aren't as good. 

Under normal circumstances Pete or Whitmer or even Gavin Newsome would be a better choice, because Harris is so deeply flawed. But so much of politics is about positioning and I just don't see any real route for anyone else to be the nominee if it's not to be Biden.  I'd roll with Harris. 

Edited July 3 by Bozo_Casanova

[Dark Horse 2279]

Kamala seems like the only practical replacement, and I don’t think she wins PA, MI, and WI. 

[YGIFS 19449]

3 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Keep telling yourself that. We know you will not stop telling the rest of us. 

I'd be happy to send you my donor record, CV of political engagement, letters of recommendation/commendation I've received from Democrats like Lloyd Doggett, Kirk Watson, Ann Howard, Donna Howard, Eddie Rodriguez, Judith Zaffirini, and Carol Alvarado.  My local councilwoman under whom I've served on multiple projects gave me a nice shout-out on TV the other day, and she's a known Democrat.  

But I forgot, you have stickers 'n shit.  

['stache 21795]

15 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

Democrats have always been terrible with messaging 

Donald Trump is convicted felon, rapist, racist, extreme narcissist, stupid, an idiotic braggart, habitual liar, ruined America's streak for peaceful transfers of power, weakens our allies and admires our enemies, has the worst fucking kids, oh and is an ugly orange stained loser with weird fucking hair. But the prevailing narrative for this election is Joe Biden is old. Now alot of that is because our corporate media oligarchs keep repeating that point to the public and treat Trump as if he was a legitimate candidate.

Democrats, including Joe himself, have hammered this, over, and over, and over again, for months, including after the convictions. Same with abortion, and Project 2025, and trump's distain for the military and veterans, and his love for Putin and Kim Jong. Over, and over, and over again it's been said. The polls barely move. The people who need to be convinced simply don't give a shit. Maybe in October? It's just abundantly clear that this election isn't about electing Biden (or whatever person you all think should replace him), it's about keeping a traitor out of office, and that doesn't seem to be enough for some reason. If people are still on the fence now, they aren't going to change their mind based on whose at the top of the ticket. If they think Biden is too old or in cognitive decline and that trump is therefore the same or better, they can't be helped.

Edited July 3 by 'stache

[Bozo_Casanova 26434]

18 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

Donald Trump is convicted felon, rapist, racist, extreme narcissist, stupid, an idiotic braggart, habitual liar, ruined America's streak for peaceful transfers of power, weakens our allies and admires our enemies, has the worst fucking kids, oh and is an ugly orange stained loser with weird fucking hair.

All that shit is priced in. America has known who Donald Trump was for 50 years. 

[WhatTheBuck 28775]

35 minutes ago, mdmost said:

What is the current perception of San Francisco right now with middle America? Gavin's hometown is thought to be a shithole filled with crime, drugs, and rampant homelessness. It's very easy to plaster than over and over and have it be an effective strategy.  

Yeah, we know how any candidate from California or New York would be attacked. There isn’t a Dem candidate who won’t be painted as a radical left extremist who’s soft on crime and wants open borders, etc. Muslim-Americans make up a significant constituency for Gretchen Whitmer. She’d be painted as pro-Hamas and anti-Israel. She’d be accused of trying to kill the auto industry because of her support of EVs. It’s easy to write Trumpian campaign ads. Unless there’s a candidate who wouldn’t be trashed by them, I don’t see the point. 

[mdmost 42999]

9 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

I'd be happy to send you my donor record, CV of political engagement, letters of recommendation/commendation I've received from Democrats like Lloyd Doggett, Kirk Watson, Ann Howard, Donna Howard, Eddie Rodriguez, Judith Zaffirini, and Carol Alvarado.  My local councilwoman under whom I've served on multiple projects gave me a nice shout-out on TV the other day, and she's a known Democrat.  

But I forgot, you have stickers 'n shit.  

You're doing it again. You're going to make the whole site come crashing down because you'll say too much and then need to go Guest YGIFS. 

[David Dennison 18845]

19 minutes ago, bolverk said:

The fat old bastard could also have a heart attack in the next few months.

Four years ago, the 78-year-old guy had trouble navigating a ramp, drinking a glass of water, had to undergo cognitive tests.

 

Again, why do we ignore that asshole's infirmities and how he's declined since then?

Biden had a horrible night on one stage, while Trump had numerous brain glitches over the past few months at his rallies aside from his insane ramblings like confusing Haley for Pelosi and Obama for Biden.

Has everyone forgotten this speech: "We are a nation that just recently heard that Saudi Arabia and Russia...ooh... aah." The press would call for Biden to step down if he glitched like this quick clip. Why haven't they with Trump?

https://www.c-span.org/video/?c5108747/user-clip-half-minute-sentence

Even the majority of posters in this thread, which are overwhelmingly against Trump, seem to have forgotten that Trump has been showing signs of slipping.

*****

Here are my unsolicited opinions:

I'm not comfortable with an 80-year-old in the White House, whether that's Trump or Biden.

Biden's speech impediment seems to have worsened, and he mumbles more. The timbre of his voice also sounds like he's losing his hearing, which might explain some of the mumbling. These issues are on top of the fact that I feel like he's never been a good orator. While those are terrible qualities in a candidate whose primary job is communication, they don't necessarily translate to bad decision-making (aided by advisors) while occupying the office, which matters most as president.

Aside from all of that, Biden had a hectic international travel schedule in June, followed by week-long intense preparations for the debate. He may well have simply been showing signs of mental/physical exhaustion while on cold meds when he was up on that stage.

I can't yet determine his "fitness" for the job to my own satisfaction, as we don't have too many data points of Biden performing that badly on camera. He seemed fine during his speech in Normandy at the beginning of June. I think a lot depends on how the interview goes in a couple of days, focusing on coherence and intelligibility. In other words, I'll pay attention to what he says as much as how he says it to discern whether it's speech-related communication or brain-related cognition.

If it goes poorly, I'm mentally preparing for him to step aside for Harris or whomever. I guess that also applies to that happening even if it does go well since there seems to be an air of inevitability about it right now. It's beyond sad that we've reached this point, but I'll wholeheartedly support anyone on the ticket.

Democracy over destruction.

IOKIYAR

[StassneyHorn 6573]

20+ pages of baby back bitch behavior in 48 hours. Most of you need to learn how to grill.

Impress your kids and earn your FIL’s respect starting now.

[linux 1660]

5 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Yeah, we know how any candidate from California or New York would be attacked. There isn’t a Dem candidate who won’t be painted as a radical left extremist who’s soft on crime and wants open borders, etc. Muslim-Americans make up a significant constituency for Gretchen Whitmer. She’d be painted as pro-Hamas and anti-Israel. She’d be accused of trying to kill the auto industry because of her support of EVs. It’s easy to write Trumpian campaign ads. Unless there’s a candidate who wouldn’t be trashed by them, I don’t see the point. 

Exactly people are naive, Ronnie could reanimate and they would call him a hollywood communist.

At the end of the day you have to be less afraid of flaws and more rewarding of strengths. Gavin is very smart, and quick on his feet, the anti biden but that has also flaws that he might looked as as slimy.

At the end of the day the biggest fault is getting dumped with all the neurotic whiners on one side both imagining and fabricating a perfect candidate in their heads, vs the cult on the other side that will never question Trump.

That is the real divide and humiliation not the left vs right.

[bolverk 29653]

14 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

I was never a member of the Republican Party, never voted straight-ticket, never donated to the RNC or RPT.  Did far more to beat Trump than you and your ten closest associates ever did.  Been probably a 33/33/33 voter between L/R/D most of my adult life.  Been appointed to multiple commissions by Democratic elected officials.  I don't get to live in la-la land and pretend that more ugliness is not just yearning for a reason to come back out to the polls to vote against a woman or person of color this cycle.  It's a fool's errand, and this isn't the year to run that errand.  But you put your yardsign, do your blockwalking, and get out your bumper sticker and let bad people  try to get to Mar-a-Lago's food supplier.  

 

Aren't you the guy who live-posted on the old site from the RPT Convention in Fort Worth several years ago?

Aren't you the guy who still brags about attending meetings at TPPF? 

You say you were a bundler for Biden, but have you ever directly contributed to a Democratic candidate with your own money?

Who was the last state or national candidate you ever directly contributed your own money to?

[Bullneck 19070]

 

 

[Bozo_Casanova 26434]

3 minutes ago, bolverk said:

 

Aren't you the guy who live-posted on the old site from the RPT Convention in Fort Worth several years ago?

Aren't you the guy who still brags about attending meetings at TPPF? 

You say you were a bundler for Biden, but have you ever directly contributed to a Democratic candidate with your own money?

Who was the last state or national candidate you ever directly contributed your own money to?

[YGIFS 19449]

14 minutes ago, mdmost said:

You're doing it again. You're going to make the whole site come crashing down because you'll say too much and then need to go Guest YGIFS. 

Dude, I bought the extended warranty for the servers.  We're totally fine.  Although, it was weird when he asked to pay with a third-party check.  

6 minutes ago, bolverk said:

 

Aren't you the guy who live-posted on the old site from the RPT Convention in Fort Worth several years ago?

Aren't you the guy who still brags about attending meetings at TPPF? 

You say you were a bundler for Biden, but have you ever directly contributed to a Democratic candidate with your own money?

Who was the last state or national candidate you ever directly contributed your own money to?

Sometimes, when you do business in Texas and your regulators and the think-tanks that guide them, are Republicans as most are, you have to to rub elbows with them.  I don't shit where I eat.  I've maxed out donations to Eddie Rodriguez and a number of other state legislators and Travis County officials.  I have to earn a living, I don't have the luxury of considering every Republican in Texas to be an evil asshole from the GLO to the RRC to the Capitol.  I don't give 'em any money, but I do attend some of their events so I can bend their ear about what we might expect in the next cycle of of regulatory oversight.  Adulting is hard, I know.  I am baffled, honestly.  No matter where people align politically.  If you have a job and live in Austin, you just accidentally meet a dozen Republican officials or staffers just by going out to eat or a game or buy groceries.  You don't have to like them, but it's naive---given what they control in Texas---to not just ask some open ended questions and listen.  Doesn't make you pro-Trump, it just means you're a human being that recognizes that shitty people are just absolutely dying to tell you what they know.  They just need a few drinks and somebody to hear them out.  

Edited July 3 by YGIFS

[Brisketexan 105058]

28 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Look - all this bullshit about Kamala Harris can't win because black/women is loser talk, and wrong besides. Hillary Clinton tried to sell the idea that she was the only choice in 08  because the alternative was a black man named Hussein. But, it turned out that the black guy named Hussein was just really gifted when it came to talking to white people in Iowa and Florida. And it turned out Hillary couldn't win any of them, or Michigan, Ohio, PA or Wisconsin.  
I think it was @hayden_horn who told a story in 2008 about some cracker in Georgia saying that he was going to "vote for the n----r" because he thought America needed to change. Low-intensity racists and sexists are perfectly happy voting for a black person or a woman on an individual basis when it suits them. It's the political version of "some of my best friends.". They just don't want to be punished for it. That's the genius of Obama. He understood working class, rural whites better than most people on this board, and he knew how to get their votes without trying to convert their biases. But for those of you who disagree with me, take a moment and think about whether the people we are talking about - the small number of persuadable independents or libertarians or maybe traditional Republicans who can't stand Trump would hesitate for a second to vote for Tim Scott or Nikki Haley. 

Kamala Harris can win, if
1) the window of the campaign is short enough to keep her out of harms way and 
2) the optics are crafted in such as way as to make her the hero in the story

If they have mini primary (even just kayfabe) she comes out of the process with an extremely strong hand and a good chance of winning, despite not being a good candidate under normal circumstances. If he resigns and she takes office and lays out a bold agenda, that's probably the cleanest path with the best optics, even though it enlarges the attack surface.  On the other hand, it Biden stays in office but simply anoints her as the nominee without an open process, she seems like a sitting duck and her chances aren't as good. 

Under normal circumstances Pete or Whitmer or even Gavin Newsome would be a better choice, because Harris is so deeply flawed. But so much of politics is about positioning and I just don't see any real route for anyone else to be the nominee if it's not to be Biden.  I'd roll with Harris. 

If what you say is true....none of that will actually happen, and Donald Trump is going to waltz into the White House.

Personally, I think he's going to waltz in because A) Operation "PANIC AND REPLACE BIDEN RIGHT NOW!" won't work, Kamala loses, and loses big, and B) enough of y'all have decided "we're abandoning Joe!" that he's no longer got a chance either.  The fucking absurdly over-the-top negative reaction of all the nancies on the left, including you, has done us in.  Honestly, it doesn't matter what we do from here on out.

Congratulations, captains.... 

[Bozo_Casanova 26434]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Personally, I think he's going to waltz in because A) Operation "PANIC AND REPLACE BIDEN RIGHT NOW!" won't work, Kamala loses, and loses big, and B) enough of y'all have decided "we're abandoning Joe!" that he's no longer got a chance either.  The fucking absurdly over-the-top negative reaction of all the nancies on the left, including you, has done us in.  Honestly, it doesn't matter what we do from here on out.

51 million people saw what they saw. There's no going back. 

[David Dennison 18845]

Kamala Harris can beat Donald Trump.

[mdmost 42999]

No one here is abandoning Biden if he's the nominee. But you bet your fucking on the ledge ass that the middle will. They won't vote for Trump. They just won't vote. And then Trump wins again. 

Edited July 3 by mdmost

[linux 1660]

Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

51 million people saw what they saw. There's no going back. 

The polls immediately after were fine, it was the searing panic not the debate that has made our jobs far more difficult.

[Brisketexan 105058]

Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

51 million people saw what they saw. There's no going back. 

If enough people decided based on the debate, then you're right.  There's no going back.  There's also no going forward that's a high-percentage play with any chance of working. 

You've decide that we're down by 2 goals with two minutes left.  And you're arguing about the statistical analysis that shows that pulling the goalie is our only chance of winning.  No, what you're arguing is that your calculation is that pulling the goalie gives us a 1 in 100 chance to win, whereas not pulling the goalie gives us a 1 in 120 chance to win.

Either way, the game is lost.  It's over.  If what you say is true -- that the impact of the debate performance was that catastrophic -- then it doesn't matter.  You'd be better off focusing your efforts on figuring out your escape plan from this country, and right soon.

 

2 minutes ago, linux said:

The polls immediately after were fine, it was the searing panic not the debate that has made our jobs far more difficult.

Fucking this.  The panic from the very people who should have stood strong is what's doing/has done the damage.  Again, you arrogant asses....you've killed US.

[mdmost 42999]

The next time Biden stumbles it will be magnified. I don't see why some of you want to put your heads in the sand on that. It's not the panic that's getting us to this point. It's that Biden's weakness was put on display for all to see. The biggest issue he had with undecided voters was made painfully more obvious. 

[Paul Wesley 3278]

Man, this thread is moving at warp speed.  I was about to reply to a couple things and realized that we had added three pages since those posts.  

Anyway, just a couple random observations that have likely been covered in the interim:

1). I think name recognition might be a negative thing these days.  It just means that right-wing propagandists have already had a nice long time to fertilize the minds of their base with a narrative.  They do a great job of identifying potential opponents and prosecuting them in the eyes of the public with highly consistent and highly coordinated messaging.  If Harris or Newsom is the nominee, the right (and by "right," I'm including an army of Russian trolls) has got a box of memes ready to go right at hour zero, and those memes are gonna reinforce their own years-long messages.  

For some potential candidates (Harris, Newsom), the GOP is going to land haymakers right from hour zero.  

2). Any woman can be president as long as she's deemed likable by other women.  That's the rule.  

Women love Oprah.  They love Michelle Obama.  They don't like women who seem the *slightest* bit condescending (Marcia Clark, Hilary Clinton), and those women are likely to lose.  I'm afraid Kamala may be in the latter camp. 

Anyone who's ever watched a female nurse taking orders from a female physician understands the dynamic.  

 

 

[mdmost 42999]

Just now, Paul Wesley said:

Anyone who's ever watched a female nurse taking orders from a female physician understands the dynamic.

Wait, what? Women can be doctors?

[David Dennison 18845]

We'll know shit's going down when Madam Speaker says it might be time to reconsider nominating Joe Biden.

[Firemans4Horn 18034]

7 minutes ago, linux said:

The polls immediately after were fine, it was the searing panic not the debate that has made our jobs far more difficult.

 

no they weren’t. 

 

Biden Plunges in Swing States in Leaked Post-Debate Poll

 

 

[Paul Wesley 3278]

10 minutes ago, linux said:

The polls immediately after were fine, it was the searing panic not the debate that has made our jobs far more difficult.

Yeah, I just don't think this is true at all.  50 million watched the debate.  Those people didn't need pundits to tell them that Biden looked like he wandered off from a memory unit.  There's maybe 0.1% of that watching mid-day hand-wringing on MSNBC.

[linux 1660]

Again I was here I looked at the results a day after the debate it was a push, hell Obama lost the debate against Romney way harder.

It was the panic, it was you people that thought you could magically insert your candidate in without ANY understanding how infeasable it was, that is what has killed polling.

[Chuckie Finster 22694]

16 minutes ago, linux said:

The polls immediately after were fine, it was the searing panic not the debate that has made our jobs far more difficult.

 

14 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Fucking this.  The panic from the very people who should have stood strong is what's doing/has done the damage.  Again, you arrogant asses....you've killed US.

Frankly this is bullshit, and I’m tired of being gaslit into ignoring what I saw with my own eyes.

I will crawl over broken glass to vote for Joe, but it isn’t doomerism to point out that others aren’t gonna.

[linux 1660]

For example see the Michelle wishcasting, oh she has an 11 point lead!! which will evaporate if she runs because her lead came from precisely refusing to run.

It seems like you are all children.

[Bullneck 19070]

15 minutes ago, Paul Wesley said:

2). Any woman can be president as long as she's deemed likable by other women.  That's the rule.  

Women love Oprah.  They love Michelle Obama.  They don't like women who seem the *slightest* bit condescending (Marcia Clark, Hilary Clinton), and those women are likely to lose.  I'm afraid Kamala may be in the latter camp. 

I think the women of America want two things: 1) their right to control their own bodies, and 2) someone who can make Trump look stupid in a debate.

Kamala can do both of those things.  

Edited July 3 by Bullneck

[linux 1660]

Just now, Chuckie Finster said:

 

Frankly this is bullshit, and I’m tired of being gaslit into ignoring what I saw with my own eyes.

I will crawl over broken glass to vote for Joe, but it isn’t doomerism to point out that others aren’t gonna.

 

Well he is not quitting and there is nothing you can do about it, what are YOU going to be doing moving forward?

 

[CTC2 2791]

12 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

 

no they weren’t. 

 

Biden Plunges in Swing States in Leaked Post-Debate Poll

 

 

The pre debate polls showed an upward trend for Biden that reversed after the debate.

[Js1 85272]

3 minutes ago, Bullneck said:

2) someone who can make Trump look stupid in a debate.

Kamala can do both of those things.  

[Firemans4Horn 18034]

3 minutes ago, linux said:

It was the panic, it was you people that thought you could magically insert your candidate in without ANY understanding how infeasable it was, that is what has killed polling.

“you people”

 

the one’s with eyes?

Biden walked out and looked like a corpse, with a whisper voice. he couldn’t put together a coherent thought most of the night. Don’t gaslight us. 

[RomaVicta 29902]

57 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

Democrats have always been terrible with messaging 

Donald Trump is convicted felon, rapist, racist, extreme narcissist, stupid, an idiotic braggart, habitual liar, ruined America's streak for peaceful transfers of power, weakens our allies and admires our enemies, has the worst fucking kids, oh and is an ugly orange stained loser with weird fucking hair. But the prevailing narrative for this election is Joe Biden is old. Now alot of that is because our corporate media oligarchs keep repeating that point to the public and treat Trump as if he was a legitimate candidate.

That's the fucking story. It's common knowledge. I don't see how the Dems can devise some slick presentation to open vother eyes to the sun shining down on them. 

I don't think the majority of the media don't bend the knee to corporate masters, but I profoundly agree with your post. I can't watch the news coverage or analysis for the very situation you describe. That's the story they should be able to cover, but they cannot break their habits of covering the same story over and over again because it is comfortable and expected. 

The piece by Medhi up above is a rare vision with clear eyes seeing this election is about the fate of the republic. Not some fate over policy but an existential fate. 

I came to post this:

The Atlantic website is stuck in the old paradigm. The presidential election is like a horse race because you keep looking at the polls to see who is ahead. That's what they report on: that sweet inside story that makes the reporters feel like they're really deep. They all read this book:

And they want to feel like Joe McGinniss by not doing as he did: digging up a real story. The new guys avoid digging up anything and simply retell his story. 

It liklely wouldn't matter much if they did do the real story in the real words about the death of the republic, but they could sleep at night. Who am I kidding? They all sleep fine.

Willingness to cause violence is what it will boil down to. I don't think the soft, delusional average American has it in him. I'm not delusional, but I'm at an age when just riding it out sounds better than standing up.

[Aqua Buddha 14582]

24 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Kamala Harris can beat Donald Trump.

Correct.  A Harris/Kelly ticket, for example, would win.  

I'm not sure where the notion she can't win PA, MI, and WI came from.  Republicans have basically lost everything there since Dobbs.  Harris might also help with turnout in the cities.