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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Harriett Hageman?  I did not have female from Wyoming of color who defeated the Republican who mostly strongly opposed Trump weighing in on Wyoming-militia backed conspiracies about a shadow government pulling the strings on Biden on my 2024 election bingo card.  But here we are.  

Everybody who will turn out for Biden, will turn out for Harris, or Whitmer, or Roscoe the One-Armed Dutchman.  It's a non-issue.  

But for 8 years, I've been reading most of you post something to the effect of "Trump brought out all these new/never voters because America elected a Black Man to the Oval and/or they didn't want a woman to take the White House."  Doesn't matter who we like (Kamala) or who we hate (Trump)...do you honestly think, your feelings about my annoyingness aside, that fewer MAGA people will sit this one out, or will it invigorate more of them to come out and vote agains a black woman?  Either your decade-long rants about Trump tapping into racism and misogyny was true and this is a big gamble, or you don't actually believe it.  Doesn't really work both ways.  It is doesn't get to be "Trump tapped into hatred of people of color and women so we needed Biden to beat him."  And then 4 months before the election, you give the folks who maybe weren't gonna vote this time around for this loser a Female of Color and magically think, "Yeah, but she'll turn out 1,700 college educated women of color in Minneapolis because of her positive message!"  Look at that these monsters are capable of in large numbers.  You honestly think this is the cycle to entice them out in even larger numbers?  Especially switching candidates this late in the game?  Trump will get 80mm votes this time around, not sure how the EC shakes out.  But it's playing with fire.  She'll get her shot down the road.  It's not misogyny, it's not about race, it's called addition and subtraction.  Maths. 

I think this could have worked about 6-18 months ago, but now that Trump's legal calendar has been cleared.  It's just 4 months of him flying around the country with one-liners about Kamala and 5-20mm probably non-voters getting all whipped into a frenzy about it at the last minute.  Plus, most of the 7-9 swing states.  30 days to register.  So really we're talking about just 90 days to make a change.  There will be another female and/or person of color nominated before the 2036 cycle.  I hope I'm wrong about this cycle, but seems a pretty weird timing to see how you can drive out more Trumpers than ever before.   

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1 hour ago, 6th Street said:

 

 

You can find the same kind of thing composed of Aaron Sorkin scenes and he’s an Academy Award winning screenwriter.  Hell, now that everything is recorded I bet you can find gibberish videos for pretty much any politician.  

 

41 minutes ago, horncyclist said:

But that 2020 primary campaign was a disaster. Not sure how broad of vetting you mean but she was not an effective campaigner and it's not clear she would be now.

Is your concern that she loses to Trump?  The 2020 primary and running against Trump are very different match-ups.  I’m also a little over the whole Dem “I only want to vote for someone that excites me” bullshit that makes everyone but Obama or Oprah seem incapable.  You shouldn’t need to have rockstar charisma to adequately man the office and Biden has shown that you can do a pretty good job just by surrounding yourself with competence.  

 

38 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Anoint? She’s the VP. She’s #2 in the White House,

Well said

36 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Harris/Whitmer ticket would be electric. If there was ever a year to lean into women voting, this would be it.

I’ve not made up my mind on it (man, if only there was a latino in a stronger position to run) but this was my hypothetical ticket last night and I love the idea of making gender so central to the argument of what we want the country to look like tomorrow.  An older white man, even Kelly, just can’t make that break with the past so clearly.  

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4 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

At least 40% of America's head would explode if it were two women on the ticket.  Sexism spans the political spectrum.

2/3 of them are married and 90% would happily vote for Nikki Haley, vague sexism and mysogyny notwithstanding. It’s not an insurmountable problem unless they run from it. 

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Here’s another good listen regarding the current state of affairs — the Impolitic podcast with John Heilemann. His guests are David Axelrod and Mike Murphy.

John is joined by the renowned political strategists David Axelrod and Mike Murphy to discuss the fallout from Joe Biden’s debate disaster, starting with the movement among Democrats to persuade Biden to bow out and let his party choose a new nominee to face Donald Trump this fall. What would an open convention look like? If Biden bails, would Kamala Harris be his inevitable replacement? And if Biden stays in, what should he do—what can he do—to recover? Axe and Murphy have the answers.

https://www.audible.com/podcast/Should-He-Stay-or-Should-He-Go-Joe-Biden-That-Is/B0D8LF2ZNY

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

People just suddenly want a mini-primary because they’re worried she can’t win or won’t be competitive. Still waiting on that most perfectly perfect Dem who is going to suddenly seize the mantel and win by double digits 

This. People HAVE to stop with these purity requirements. This is how Dems lose, historically. Quit fucking hand wringing about the smallest bullshit, ESPECIALLY when the other side has put up a fucking convicted felon, rapist, liar, con man who has PROVEN he is an awful president already. 
 

I could throw a dart out the window and hit someone better than him, yet Dem voters screech about how they don’t have someone who checks every single box they could possibly think of and therefore no one is good enough. 

 

Fucking. Insanity. 

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1 hour ago, chainsaw said:

Kamala has the party by the balls and she knows it. Piss her off and black women stay home. Black women stay home, we get Trump no matter what.

It's gonna be Harris/TBD.

I don't like Mark Kelly because it leaves an AZ-Sen slot vulnerable. Otherwise he would be a great candidate. If Dems lose the Senate it increases the chances of a lame duck term and the risk of a Trumpist wave in 2026 and a Trumpist candidate in 2028.

Can’t nobody be worried about 2026 much less 2028.  If Kelly as VP has any positive impact on the odds of beating Trump in 4 months, draft his ass.  There’s too much at stake.

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28 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

The only person I can see being able to move the needle is Whitmer.

You keep saying this and I dont understand why. 99% of voters have no clue who she is. Is it just because she’s from Michigan and you think she can win that state?  I’m genuinely curious. What has she done that has wowed you so much?

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10 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

At least 40% of America's head would explode if it were two women on the ticket.  Sexism spans the political spectrum.

“I can’t identify myself as a woman. Men hate that, and women who hate women hate that, which I believe is most women.”

- Selina Meyer

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3 minutes ago, immamac said:

Imagine if they 25th amendment Biden and the Republicans block it. Hahahahahahhahahahahahaabababababahshfjrkeowocncbfowpqpsncn

Auto L if they try to 25th him. It’s a pipe dream. He’s not incapacitated or dead 

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Well, they wouldn't do that. Biden would resign or say he's stepping down as the party's nominee. It needs to be a coordinated effort that doesn't freak people out. You remove him forcefully, it causes a massive problem. 

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25 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

At least 40% of America's head would explode if it were two women on the ticket.  Sexism spans the political spectrum.

Yep.  If it’s Kamala you need a white man as vp.  We’re pushing g our luck with a black female as is

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3 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

You keep saying this and I dont understand why. 99% of voters have no clue who she is. Is it just because she’s from Michigan and you think she can win that state?  I’m genuinely curious. What has she done that has wowed you so much?

This is a huge part of it for me.  I think the Dems need to go with someone who is tabula rasa, so they can better mold the narrative.  

She would definitely carry Michigan, but that's bigger than that.  She has about a 50% approval rating (which is hard to do these days) in a very purple state where Biden's approval rating is 37%.  She's also been able to work across the aisle in the State Legislature, which is similar in composition to the US Congress.  This tells me she knows how to connect with moderate Republicans and independents.

I just think that's a skill that's needed to beat Trump, and she's the only one I know that has it.  

Also, no one can speak from more personal experience than her about the threat of MAGA.

Finally, she's attractive and comes across very likable/relatable in interviews.  Those might seem like shallow reasons, and they likely are, but they are important.  It's the old "beer" test... IE would you want to grab a beer with that person.

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Just now, DixonHur said:

This is a huge part of it for me.  I think the Dems need to go with someone who is tabula rasa, so they can better mold the narrative.  

She would definitely carry Michigan, but that's bigger than that.  She has about a 50% approval rating (which is hard to do these days) in a very purple state where Biden's approval rating is 37%.  She's also been able to work across the aisle in the State Legislature, which is similar in composition to the US Congress.  This tells me she knows how to connect with moderate Republicans and independents.

I just think that's a skill that's needed to beat Trump, and she's the only one I know that has it.  

Also, no one can speak from more personal experience than her about the threat of MAGA.

Finally, she's attractive and comes across very likable/relatable in interviews.  Those might seem like shallow reasons, and they likely are, but they are important.  It's the old "beer" test... IE would you want to grab a beer with that person.

image.gif.bddf39487a885d98b670c2694ba85c96.gif

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1 hour ago, chainsaw said:

It's old news. MSM is terrified of the story because the sourcing is weak. The new Epstein documents corroborate some of it but there's still "plausible" deniability for Team Trump.

Eventually the smarties will put some of the pieces together and tell the story in a new and convincing way, and that will get a few news cycles. If it's what I think it is, I love it (especially later in the summer).

I Hope Please GIF

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18 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

You keep saying this and I dont understand why. 99% of voters have no clue who she is. Is it just because she’s from Michigan and you think she can win that state?  I’m genuinely curious. What has she done that has wowed you so much?

- No name recognition and attachment to Dem establishment is a plus. 
- She governs a purple battleground state and will carry it easily.
- Kidnapping attempt by Maga is huge. 
- She is tough and smart. 

How many times do you have to be told these things?  Outside of an unwilling Obama, in a vacuum she is by far the best candidate. 

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Oh I’m sure by Sunday or Monday, we will have 3-5 outlets with polling done of Harris, Whitmer, Newsom, etc vs Trump so we can all fight about it next week

tina turner auntie entity GIF

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9 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Auto L if they try to 25th him. It’s a pipe dream. He’s not incapacitated or dead 

Yeah, we've had very old Presidents.  People, like you old folks, tend to forget that.  Whom, while not senile...were certainly in cognitive decline but not "incapacitated."  I mean, that Amendment was written in the early 1960's before passage when all we knew of mental decline was if your doctor smoked in your face and asked what you had for breakfast yesterday, you coughed and were declared insane.  

Reagan, Trump, Biden, Buchanan.  All exhibited signs of old age, even Eisenhower towards the end.  Doesn't make you incapacitated, just all the more reason you need to surround yourself with a more competent and energetic staff, which I applaud Biden for doing.  But you can't run on that, because it makes you look weak and frail---even though serious people know that's how shit really gets done in our country.  That, and a competent Congress but that ship fucking sailed a long time ago.  

You wanna go down a fun rabbit hole on Independence Day.  Google some of the stump speeches then 68-year old William Henry Harrison gave on the campaign trail in 1840.  Guy wasn't just senile, he was a fucking lunatic.  Makes Biden look like Ken Jennings.  Big part of the reason why I joined his previous office-holder's street gang, #8.  

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Just now, YGIFS said:

Reagan, Trump, Biden, Buchanan.  All exhibited signs of old age

Edith Wilson was running Woodrow’s admin by the end of the 1910s

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32 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

You keep saying this and I dont understand why. 99% of voters have no clue who she is. Is it just because she’s from Michigan and you think she can win that state?  I’m genuinely curious. What has she done that has wowed you so much?

Here's a good interview with her from January.

Margaret Brennan is insufferably confrontational, but Gretchen does a great job of fighting her without coming across as angry.  I couldn't have held my tongue, considering there is no way she pushes Republicans like that.

 

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4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Edith Wilson was running Woodrow’s admin by the end of the 1910s

Good point.  I forget we was pretty young when he left office, but was quite ill.  You could same something similar about Eleanor Roosevelt.  

I don't know how, but my maternal cousin got very close with Nancy Reagan over the years.  Was a pall-bearer at her funeral.  He told me she confided him a few years before the end, that 18 months between back half of '87 and '88, James Baker discretely came back to the White House and between him and Nancy...basically ran the Oval.  

It's the paradox of the office.  When it was substantially less powerful as the framer's intended, it was run by relatively middle-aged men of military experience and vigor with small teams.  Now that we've spent over a century expanding the scope of the office's power and blowing up its staff and influence to inconceivable numbers, we keep running old guys who try to hide the fact that they have that big a team and support network.  50 year old President used to just sit down and write the State of the Union up as a 4-5 pager and have it sent up to Capitol Hill.  Now we got 70-80 year olds who have to take a week off to prep for a live performance and then get a blood transfusion afterward. 

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35 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

You keep saying this and I dont understand why. 99% of voters have no clue who she is. Is it just because she’s from Michigan and you think she can win that state?  I’m genuinely curious. What has she done that has wowed you so much?

She’s the 5* QB recruit who dazzled in high school but hasn’t taken a meaningful snap since arriving on campus. The starter is struggling and nobody wants the backup. The backup couldn’t win the starting job so they’re not good enough. We want the prize recruit! They’ll save us!

She has the benefit of being somewhat of an unknown so in our minds she can still be whatever we hope she’ll be. Get to know a candidate and Dem voters will turn on them because they’re not just exactly perfect. They want the next shiny new toy.

I think there’s some of that going on. Don’t get me wrong, I think she’s got great promise. I like her and I’ll enthusiastically support her if they go the mini-primary route and she wins the nomination. And the fact that she’s a relative unknown could be an advantage because the Trump team will have to scramble to devise a strategy against her. Of course Trump’s boorish approach to negative campaigning doesn’t take a lot of time or thought. But they’ve spent so much time building a campaign against “senile” Joe Biden, forcing them to abandon that would toss a wrench into their gears. (Still, the phrase “crooked Gretchen Whitmer” would be blasted out from Trump about 5 seconds after her nomination.) But the unknown aspect could also be a benefit amongst undecided voters who might also see in her whatever they want to see.

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46 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Well, they wouldn't do that. Biden would resign or say he's stepping down as the party's nominee. It needs to be a coordinated effort that doesn't freak people out. You remove him forcefully, it causes a massive problem. 

In terms of massive how much more massive a problem is a DJT second term?  After the SC decision he’s basically a King round 2.  FML

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7 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

She has the benefit of being somewhat of an unknown so in our minds she can still be whatever we hope she’ll be. Get to know a candidate and Dem voters will turn on them because they’re not just exactly perfect. They want the next shiny new toy.

She’s Generic Dem, which always polls great until they start to get defined 

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The success of a two woman black/white ticket comes down to the following equation. Is..

Additional black voters + additional women voters + additional male non-black voters who value competency > the number of male misogynists + the number of racists against black people.

I think that it would energize the campaign, create a ton of press, and attract just enough new voters to offset the racists and misogynists. But hey, I'm an optimist.

 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

In terms of massive how much more massive a problem is a DJT second term?  After the SC decision he’s basically a King round 2.  FML

In terms of people fleeing the Democratic Party and just not voting. People are pretty pissy little creatures who like to take their ball and go home. Look at the pro-Palestinians people in Michigan who have a lot more to lose than you or I if Trump is in power. But because Biden sided with Israel, they just won't vote or so they tell us. They're ready to burn it all down if they don't get their way. That's going to be a pretty prevailing sentiment going forward if Biden remains. Well, I just won't vote...so Trump wins. 

And yes a Trump term is worse. But the people who don't follow it that closely don't see it yet. That's why you have to change the narrative from Biden is old to Trump is a piece of shit and here's Kamala to tell you in great detail why that's the case. Joe Biden certainly did a poor job of that during the first debate. If he remains in the race, there will not be a 2nd or 3rd debate. Trump doesn't have to debate him. He already won what he needed to by Biden's performance. 

Edited by mdmost
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Just now, mdmost said:

In terms of people fleeing the Democratic Party and just not voting. People are pretty pissy little creatures who like to take their ball and go home. Look at the pro-Palestinians people in Michigan who have a lot more to lose than you or I if Trump is in power. But because Biden sided with Israel, they just won't vote. 

And yes a Trump term is worse. But the people who don't follow it that closely don't see it yet. That's why you have to change the narrative from Biden is old to Trump is a piece of shit and here's Kamala to tell you in great detail why that's the case. Joe Biden certainly did a poor job of that during the first debate. If he remains in the race, there will not be a 2nd or 3rd debate. Trump doesn't have to debate him. He already won what he needed to by Biden's performance. 

Here’s the thing.  There’s so much dirt on Trump people have become numb to it.  Not us, but many of the people that matter.  The very few voters who may be undecided OR the far greater number of voters who have their choice but need to get off their ass and vote.  Biden needs to get his voters out, they all know Trump is trash.  But I’m afraid the version we saw at the debate is just gonna turn a lot of his voters off.  

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3 minutes ago, mdmost said:

In terms of people fleeing the Democratic Party and just not voting. People are pretty pissy little creatures who like to take their ball and go home. Look at the pro-Palestinians people in Michigan who have a lot more to lose than you or I if Trump is in power. But because Biden sided with Israel, they just won't vote. 

And yes a Trump term is worse. But the people who don't follow it that closely don't see it yet. That's why you have to change the narrative from Biden is old to Trump is a piece of shit and here's Kamala to tell you in great detail why that's the case. Joe Biden certainly did a poor job of that during the first debate. If he remains in the race, there will not be a 2nd or 3rd debate. Trump doesn't have to debate him. He already won what he needed to by Biden's performance. 

I’m 100% at Team Kamala at this point. Younger candidate, less baggage (no debate flub, no Biden crime family, etc., brings a new perspective, energizes black and female voters. Who are the most reliable. Could get the youth vote back with her softer approach towards Palestine and just being younger in general. She’s been killing it by being the voice of pro-choice, which has helped her numbers in swing states and with swing voters.

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24 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Here's a good interview with her from January.

Margaret Brennan is insufferably confrontational, but Gretchen does a great job of fighting her without coming across as angry.  I couldn't have held my tongue, considering there is no way she pushes Republicans like that.

 

I got through 9 minutes and I know for damn sure the interviewer is a raging cunt. But Whitmer seemed fine. That said, and maybe she does so later in the interview, I would like her to call out the R bullshit and lies more. If she were to get the D nod, she’d have my vote. Just like anyone else that gets the D nod. 

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Here’s the thing.  There’s so much dirt on Trump people have become numb to it.  Not us, but many of the people that matter.  The very few voters who may be undecided OR the far greater number of voters who have their choice but need to get off their ass and vote.  Biden needs to get his voters out, they all know Trump is trash.  But I’m afraid the version we saw at the debate is just gonna turn a lot of his voters off.  

I think there are a ton of people out there who dislike Trump, but think “he’s already been president before. How bad could it be?”

Dems need a nominee who can articulate exactly how bad it can be. Biden is not doing that at all.
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Just now, Red Five said:


I think there are a ton of people out there who dislike Trump, but think “he’s already been president before. How bad could it be?”

Dems need a nominee who can articulate exactly how bad it can be. Biden is not doing that at all.

That's exactly how people think. There's continuity if Trump is back in. He did it before, the economy was okay until Covid, yeah a lot of people died but my 401K was good and gas was cheap. Yes, it's low information stuff but you can shift that message back to "this is why he's bad for the country". 

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1 minute ago, Aqua Buddha said:

If Whitmer wins an actual vote, what about keeping Harris on the ticket?  It makes the block women happy.  Harris wouldn’t like it but tough shit.  She’s take it anyway.

Harris has to be top of ticket. Optics of being passed up for a white woman are un-recover-from-able and will squander black women turnout where it's needed.

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Posted (edited)

If Biden actually resigns, which I don't think is going to happen, then Harris is 100% the nominee. If he opts to pull out of the race, I still think she should be the nominee due to much of what has already been stated, but I could see a brokered convention go a different way. I'd actually prefer the 1st option. 

Also, all this talk from Biden about not dropping out feels exactly like coaches who say they are not taking another coaching job, and then within a week they do. 

Edited by Mo Horn
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59 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

Reagan, Trump, Biden, Buchanan.  All exhibited signs of old age, even Eisenhower towards the end.

Reagan left office at 77, almost 78.
Trump was 74 when he left office.
Eisenhower, Jackson, Buchanan ... all right at age 70 when they left office.

Biden is already over 80 and Trump, if you factor in the fat, is probably the same biological age.

I'm around a lot of old people thanks to my parents.  A tip to the young:  Get everything done that you want to get done in life by age 80.  Your 70s can be really nice, but kinda slow, but you're still there and you can still do stuff.  And some people can keep going into their 80s.  But things start breaking and a lot of people in their 80's are just hanging on.

It's not a good time to take on a four year assignment, even if you are trying to keep yourself out of jail or keep someone else out of the White House.

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Irrefutable Fact #1. Harris is the only one with access to the money. That means she has to be on the ticket.

Once you accept that, you move on to

Irrefutable Fact #2. Harris has a stronger claim to the throne than anyone else. I'm not saying she is the best candidate, but I am saying that being VP is the strongest possible resume for being president.

Once you accept that, you move on to

Irrefutable Fact #3. There is no satisfying explanation for putting anyone besides Harris at the top of the ticket. By "satisfying explanation" I mean a narrative that black voters and especially black women will believe. Even if it's 100% true.

Once you accept that, you move on to

Conclusion: Harris absolutely must be at the top of the ticket.

It's beyond debate.

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1 hour ago, Pancho said:

“I can’t identify myself as a woman. Men hate that, and women who hate women hate that, which I believe is most women.”

- Selina Meyer

You know what VP stands for?

07F61621-EB47-483B-8A97-34A2CBBFB7B2.jpeg.e56b00acbc7145637f069d67befb5b92.jpeg

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20 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

Also, all this talk from Biden about not dropping out feels exactly like coaches who say they are not taking another coaching job, and then within a week they do. 

It's what every candidate does. When was the last time you heard "Well, I'm thinking about dropping out. In fact I probably will, pretty soon. Just need to get my ducks in a row, you know? I'll get back to you." 

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3 minutes ago, South Austin said:

You’re on the wrong message board.

Hey there's still plenty debate about who her running mate could be. I was bullish on the young rep from Philadelphia until I heard Katie Hobbs would appoint Mark Kelly's replacement in AZ if it's him.

And I think a white non-Buttigieg male would be the best choice for VP.

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6 minutes ago, Red Five said:

It's what every candidate does. When was the last time you heard "Well, I'm thinking about dropping out. In fact I probably will, pretty soon. Just need to get my ducks in a row, you know? I'll get back to you." 

This. We're firmly in "He gone" territory. MSNBC out front shoulda told ya.

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19 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

Reagan left office at 77, almost 78.
Trump was 74 when he left office.
Eisenhower, Jackson, Buchanan ... all right at age 70 when they left office.

Biden is already over 80 and Trump, if you factor in the fat, is probably the same biological age.

I'm around a lot of old people thanks to my parents.  A tip to the young:  Get everything done that you want to get done in life by age 80.  Your 70s can be really nice, but kinda slow, but you're still there and you can still do stuff.  And some people can keep going into their 80s.  But things start breaking and a lot of people in their 80's are just hanging on.

It's not a good time to take on a four year assignment, even if you are trying to keep yourself out of jail or keep someone else out of the White House.

Reagan’s decline wasn’t just old age sundowning mental decline. He had help from dementia/alsheimers. 
 

For Jackson and Buchanan, what was the average male lifespan at that time and how close were they to it compared to Biden today?  I guess I should also ask if mental acuity has improved over the years as we’ve lived longer, or it’s just that now we have health care to outlive our brains. 

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