2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Old Freak Nasty 821]

Someone should convince Taylor Swift to run.  That'll run up the democratic GOTV numbers for the group that never votes.  Swift fills the any human with a pulse criteria for all the people that were already going to vote for Biden tomorrow.

[Loch Ness Monster 3,533]

 

 

[mchookem 16,322]

well not with that attitude he can't! 

literally. #punintended

Edited July 10 by mchookem

[Hank Kingsley 20,908]

Obviously the clock is ticking, but it's good to see the pressure on Biden will not go away. He will not win people over or silence the critics with future public appearances. The polls continue to get worse. There is no way to undo the belief from the majority of voters that he's old and fragile. If there are no upticks in the next couple of weeks, Joe can still bow out on "his terms" or whatever makes him feel better. 

As much as he loves power, legacy matters more to Biden. He just has to be convinced he can't win.  

 

 

[Pancho 44,714]

 

[Duane Moore 5,237]

7 hours ago, bolverk said:

Have you ever watched GoT?

If so, picture DC as King's Landing after Robert Barratheon dies, and all the various factions within the Democratic Party as the different houses vying for the throne. Now picture Trump as the Night King and MAGA as the white walkers.

This is the image that comes to mind for me with the Democrats succession problem (and no, I’m not comparing Biden to Stalin as any kind of moral equivalent):

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

What so amazing is how out of the blue this was.  There was just no way to anticipate last year when he was 80 that he would be 81 this year. 

[immamac 42,838]

6 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

What so amazing is how out of the blue this was.  There was just no way to anticipate last year when he was 80 that he would be 81 this year. 

State of the union was pretty awesome. That's where I thought we were gonna see this. 

[closetohumping 17,435]

15 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

What so amazing is how out of the blue this was.  There was just no way to anticipate last year when he was 80 that he would be 81 this year. 

To me age is just a number. 82 is the new 52.  Joe got this on lock!

[Aqua Buddha 14,582]

51 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Can I call bullshit on some of this?  The Dems have won most everything in AZ lately, Kari Lake is their nominee there, and abortion is on the ballot.  

[SubliminalHorn 6,786]

1 minute ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Can I call bullshit on some of this?  The Dems have won most everything in AZ lately, Kari Lake is their nominee there, and abortion is on the ballot.  

So do you call bullshit on the poll that shows Gallego up but Biden down?

[Aqua Buddha 14,582]

18 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

So do you call bullshit on the poll that shows Gallego up but Biden down?

A lot of the state level polls say that.  They have Biden losing but the Dem Senate candidate winning, easily in some cases.

I also think these polls are shit and they have been for some time.  The Republicans have won all of the polls the last two years but lost all of the actual elections.  Dobbs is the primary reason.  Yet they cling to polls like Aggy to football recruiting.

[GW Hayduke 1,953]

7 hours ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

 

 

What a dumbass. A middling no-name senator fucks up and says some stupid shit in a closed door setting and then goes on TV trying to fix and then and says some more stupid shit. I'm often amazed how someone with such incompetence becomes a US senator.

[Biff Tannen 45,665]

9 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

By past tense you mean he's done immediately or he'll play out the game and lose in November?

 

9 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

Latter. 
 

Too soon to have the Kamala/Gretch/Newsom discussion. 

Um, so we are committing suicide?

[Bozo_Casanova 26,437]

9 hours ago, David Dennison said:

Out in the open intra-party fighting. He and his supporters will not go quietly. And then you have the jockeying to be his successor.

It will be a complete cluster fuck and wonderfully entertaining. But also sad and scary.

If by sad and scary you mean healthy and necessary I agree

[Biff Tannen 45,665]

9 hours ago, bolverk said:

Now picture Trump as the Night King and MAGA as the white walkers.

So it will take them like 7 years to get here and then we will defeat them fairly easily in one night?

[Bozo_Casanova 26,437]

10 minutes ago, GW Hayduke said:

A middling no-name senator

A crucial, incredibly influential, universally respected senator whose immaculate personal brand helped flip a purple state blue, you mean. 

Edited July 10 by Bozo_Casanova

[ConferenceRoom 6,141]

2 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

So it will take them like 7 years to get here and then we will defeat them fairly easily in one night?

Yeah, but we'll have wasted a damn good cavalry. 

[closetohumping 17,435]

9 hours ago, bolverk said:

Have you ever watched GoT?

If so, picture DC as King's Landing after Robert Barratheon dies, and all the various factions within the Democratic Party as the different houses vying for the throne. Now picture Trump as the Night King and MAGA as the white walkers.

*ice cream king 

[South Austin 52,457]

7 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

As much as he loves power, legacy matters more to Biden. He just has to be convinced he can't win.  

It’s hard to convince an 80-year-old man much of anything.

[Voldemort86 2,259]

My condolences to the smart and decent houstonians who are still without power.

as for the trump voting, MAGA, TEXAS GRID RULES, idiot crowd. Fuck you. How’s your grid doing now? Beryl was a lowly category 1. How would Houston handle a direct hit from a much more severe storm?   The thought of you guys doing without power for a lengthy amount of time brings a massive smile to my face.

texas needs to join one of the power grids in the US.

Edited July 10 by Voldemort86

[Pam Cummings 9,639]

8 hours ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

 

 

This is so weird though. Whitner was on NPR yesterday and insisted on Biden.

[SubliminalHorn 6,786]

43 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

A lot of the state level polls say that.  They have Biden losing but the Dem Senate candidate winning, easily in some cases.

I also think these polls are shit and they have been for some time.  The Republicans have won all of the polls the last two years but lost all of the actual elections.  Dobbs is the primary reason.  Yet they cling to polls like Aggy to football recruiting.

Ok so they’re all wrong?

[Chuckie Finster 22,694]

eyes emoji

 

 

[Vegas64 673]

I’m just so over all this. It’s like a breakup, a week ago I was sad and distraught and trying to save the relationship. Now I’m just like either go to therapy and let’s commit to work this out or move out and let me move past this and into a loving relationship. 
 

The worse case scenario now is this dragging on in purgatory and it only hurting Biden and but ultImately nothing getting done or changed. It’s getting to to the level of Dallas Cowboys mismanagement of Free Agency bad.

[Schulz2.0 28,951]

10 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

I realize this isn’t helping things for our collective psyche , but I’ve had two professional calls TODAY with clients where we are discussing the Biden administration in past tense. Like lame duck past tense. And not with wingnuts.

 I’m not the only person. This is occurring all over town. 

Ian Bremmer had a video the other day talking about Buden announcing he would Stat in the election. He mentioned the message he gets from Biden's WH staff about his mental fitness is very different from what he hears from others that have interacted directly with Biden (CEOs, foreign politicians, etc).

[DigglerontheHoof 21,183]

22 minutes ago, Pam Cummings said:

This is so weird though. Whitner was on NPR yesterday and insisted on Biden.

At this point, it almost seems like Ds are plotting to get dotard elected, too.

We. Are. Fucked. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

4 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

At this point, it almost seems like Ds are plotting to get dotard elected, too.

We. Are. Fucked. 

To me this seems to all be very clear individual political calculus. Every individual thinks the same thing and is 80% sure everyone else thinks it too. Everyone is looking around to make sure when they say it, everyone else is saying it too. There’s a nagging doubt that everyone else steps back right after they’ve committed themselves. 

[Loch Ness Monster 3,533]

58 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

A crucial, incredibly influential, universally respected senator whose immaculate personal brand helped flip a purple state blue, you mean. 

Yeah I think Senator Bennet legitimately believes Biden will lose and it could also cost the Dems in down ballot races. Like he said the election is far to important to let someone to just go have fun out there! Results be damned.

Biden has the second worst approval rating for a first time President in modern history. Think it's logical to look around and say, uh we sure this guy is helping? Dotard might be President again with help from a GOP Congress.

Edited July 10 by Loch Ness Monster

[Js1 85,296]

9 hours ago, Old Freak Nasty said:

Someone should convince Taylor Swift to run.  That'll run up the democratic GOTV numbers for the group that never votes.  Swift fills the any human with a pulse criteria for all the people that were already going to vote for Biden tomorrow.

[DaysOff 7,947]

11 hours ago, mdmost said:

He has to be willing to go for this to not become a complete cluster fuck. Instead, he's going to be stubborn, like an old person, and not listen to everyone telling him that he's no longer up to the task. Anyone who has dealt with an elderly relative knows how those conversations tend to go. We can only hope the sense of resignation hits him before it's all too late. It would've been better for everyone if this happened at the State of the Union instead of all us seeing it as Fool's Gold. 

Everyone in the Executive Branch needs to be looking at how best to foil what Trump plans to do when he's elected. Put as many roadblocks as you can right now if it's an option. We better pray the Democrats keep the Senate and gain some seats in the House. That's our only path to keeping this country from slipping away. 

 

Do what Elaine did to Jerry's dad. Set up a bunch of 7pm meetings. Run the old guy ragged and make him want to quit.

[babysdaddy 2,721]

Talking about getting old people to do something they don’t want to do.  I had a great grandfather that almost killed me one day driving from the farm back to town.  When we got home I mentioned it to my grandmother (his daughter) and she said that was it and they were taking away his car.  He informed the family that evening that he was getting his commercial license and buying an 18 wheeler to drive around if they took his Cadillac away.

 

The only two people that can convince Joe to step down are Hunter and Jill.  So what do you think they want? Pardon and $100 million? Would that do it? 

[The Original Greaser Bob 2,822]

All the people who are going to vote for Biden are going to vote for the Biden alternative.  Only difference to me is that they will likely be more enthused about the Biden alternative.  To me very little likelihood that they won't show up because they are pissed that their guy wasn't the nominee.  

I don't think any pontificating by Dems will have ANY bearing on that.  Nothing about Biden looking old will be new to anyone, and nothing about anyone else's concern will have much to do with that either.  

It's pretty simple - if Biden turns into Pepe, the old and indefatigable defender who everyone loved in the Euro's this year, the press will cover that.  If Biden looks old and makes mistakes, the press will cover that. 

No need for one to gnash one's teeth about it.  Based on this thread, it's not a surprise that some still feel they get the best odds sticking with Biden.  I think it's not as good a bet as the alternative.

 

[Duane Moore 5,237]

1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

A lot of the state level polls say that.  They have Biden losing but the Dem Senate candidate winning, easily in some cases.

I also think these polls are shit and they have been for some time.  The Republicans have won all of the polls the last two years but lost all of the actual elections.  Dobbs is the primary reason.  Yet they cling to polls like Aggy to football recruiting.

I’d be leery of just disregarding the polls and relying on Dobbs to carry the day everywhere. My recollection of the 2022 midterms was that people were expecting a red wave due to historical trends of a party’s typical midterm results for a new president and Biden’s low approval rating that had begun after the Afghanistan withdrawal, but that the polls themselves weren’t showing a wave coming. The Nate Silvers and 538’s of the world claim that in most cases the polls for 2022 were reasonably accurate. Not to mention that while they didn’t get a red wave, the Republicans did win enough to take back the House. What’s more, Mike DeWine and Ron DeSantis won reelection by huge margins after signing restrictive heartbeat laws in their states. 
 

It’s also worth noting that in 2016-2020 the polls underestimated Trump’s vote share in most states, most likely because he pulls more low-propensity voters out of the woodwork that the polls’ weighting algorithms don’t account for. This year, he has been leading pretty consistently across all the pollsters for the whole year, and in states where the same polls are showing the Democratic senate candidate handily beating the Republican candidate.
 

Maybe the public polls are all wrong, but there has been lots of reporting that the campaign’s internal polls are just as bad, if not worse. The fact that many Democratic politicians seem panicked about Biden staying in the race would indicate they believe what the polls are telling them. 
 

What I would not trust at this point are polls of hypothetical matchups between Trump and Kamala/Whitmer/Newsom, etc.  These are going to have a lot more variability in them and opportunity for improvement with time and name recognition as opposed to Biden, for whom people’s opinions are fixed in amber at this point. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26,437]

Pelosi: Biden better make a decision soon

Biden: I’ve decided Im running unless God says don’t run

Pelosi: better decide again, I mean

Edited July 10 by Bozo_Casanova

[Aqua Buddha 14,582]

2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Pelosi: Biden better make a decision soon

Biden: I’ve decided Im running unless God says don’t run

Pelosi: better decide again, I mean

It seems like they're waiting for him to do that press conference later this week.  If he implodes, he's gone.

[Js1 85,296]

5 minutes ago, Duane Moore said:

but that the polls themselves weren’t showing a wave coming.

lol Wasserman was still declaring a red wave at 7pm on election night 2022.  This is pretty false, but to be fair, the zone was flooded by GOP polls pointing to that narrative and the pundits refused to believe otherwise. 

[Bateshorn 9,927]

In fairness, Democrats are deeply despondent right now, so good luck getting a depressed but guaranteed to vote (i.e. most of this page) on the phone right now to spend 15 minutes answering polling questions. 

[Duane Moore 5,237]

3 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Pelosi: Biden better make a decision soon

Biden: I’ve decided Im running unless God says don’t run

Pelosi: better decide again, I mean

lol, this video is wild:

Pelosi: We love Joe and will support him however he decides

Lemire: he’s said he’s decided and he’s running

Pelosi: whatever he decides, we’ll support him

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

 

Just now, Bateshorn said:

In fairness, Democrats are deeply despondent right now, so good luck getting a depressed but guaranteed to vote (i.e. most of this page) on the phone right now to spend 15 minutes answering polling questions. 

that's true.  but it's not convincing me that it is the entirety of the difference.  and all you need is a tiny difference from 2020 to lose.

 

2020 was all about fixing the problem that was in everyone's face.  people did the responsible if not fun thing.  now the problem isn't in our face.  asking the public for a 4 year memory is too much.

[Js1 85,296]

I hate this country 

[DixonHur 11,296]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I hate this country 

Translation... "I don't care which party wins, as long as it's the Republicans"

[freyguy 4,265]

so no change in strategies since the last pre-election.  Repubs are still evil, and Dems are still pussies....

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

WaPo on Never Trumpers' thoughts:

For moderate Republicans who have vowed never to support former president Donald Trump, witnessing President Biden’s unfitness for another term is more than just a little alarming. As Biden struggles to salvage his reelection prospects, I asked my Post Opinions colleagues Jim Geraghty and Megan McArdle: How should Never Trumpers think about this moment?

💬 💬 💬

James Hohmann: We have heard so much about the double doubters or the double haters, and it feels like they’re going to decide this election. Is there any way that the Democratic Party’s nomination process, including an open convention, winds up giving them a more appetizing choice?

Jim Geraghty: It is a dark, perhaps catastrophic moment in public life, spurred by a majority of Republicans who desired a third Trump campaign and an almost 82-year-old man who should have known better but is blinded by his own ego and inner circle.

Megan McArdle: I have long been resigned to voting for Biden, as I did in 2020, not because I like the Democratic policy platform — I don’t — but because he was better than an erratic, impulsive narcissist with a disdain for policy detail and a total disrespect for institutional restraint. At the moment, I’m worried that the Democrats will show me they aren’t much better.

Jim: Two generic Democratic lawmakers without any Biden or Vice President Harris baggage could probably win handily against Trump — think any combo of Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker, Michael Bennet, Andy Beshear. But it will be almost impossible to get to an open convention unless Biden has a change of heart.

James: It will be fascinating to see how many House and Senate Democrats are willing to go on the record about their concerns this week. Unlike for Trump, there is far less concern about consequences for crossing Biden. But most members want to be team players.

Jim: Yeah, the impulses to protect “the big guy” and dismiss critics of your party’s leader are not just found in the GOP.

James: Biden is coming across as Trumpy in some of his cleanup tour: The defiance, the denial of reality and polls, the boasts about crowd size, the efforts to portray criticisms of him as attacks on his supporters.

If not Biden, who?

 

Jim: If it isn’t Biden, it’s almost certainly Harris. As I wrote last week, she is now, at least nominally, the less risky option.

Megan: I agree, not least because she’s likely to be fully lucid and in command during a strategic crisis. But as a candidate, she has both upsides and downsides. Democratic primary voters didn’t care for her, even in her home state. The general electorate, which is to her right, is even less likely to be wowed.

James: What do you think winds up determining the outcome of the election then? Or do you think it’s baked?

Megan: I think it will be very hard to stand up a whole new campaign in a few months. The main benefit of switching to a different candidate is that conservatives won’t have as much oppo on that person (unless that person is Harris). The drawback is that voters won’t know them, and the process is likely to be ugly.

Jim: Maybe the best-case scenario for Democrats is that Trump, overconfident from his current surge, starts venting his spleen and seeming even more unhinged. Something where just enough voters in the “blue wall” states say, “Ugh, we just can’t go through that again.”

James: Do you think Never Trumpers see through Robert F. Kennedy Jr.? Obviously, he originally hoped to appeal to Kennedy Democrats. But he has been so unhinged.

Megan: I don’t think RFK appeals to Never Trumpers at all. He’s like Trump, but less self-interested and more unhinged.

Jim: Agreed. Never Trumpers (generally) want things go back to “normal” — pre-Trump, maybe pre-Obama. RFK is the “everything stinks, everyone lies, burn the whole system down” candidate.

James: I guess that brings it back to: What should Never Trumpers do? Just wait and see how it shakes out? We are only 120 or so days from the election!

Megan: I am still reluctantly voting for Biden. But I’m not going to shame anyone who decides that they cannot vote to install a president in clear cognitive decline, whose infirmity may trigger a 25th Amendment crisis. There is no candidate for us, and that’s not a surprise, because the smallest quadrant in American politics is occupied by Never Trump conservatives and libertarians.

Jim: I’d tell people it is entirely legitimate to conclude that no presidential candidate deserves or has earned your vote. As Ted Cruz said at the 2016 GOP convention, “Vote your conscience.” Of course, Cruz knuckled under a little while later. 😝

[Aqua Buddha 14,582]

16 minutes ago, Js1 said:

lol Wasserman was still declaring a red wave at 7pm on election night 2022.  This is pretty false, but to be fair, the zone was flooded by GOP polls pointing to that narrative and the pundits refused to believe otherwise. 

Same with Frank Luntz, who is an otherwise good pollster.  Pre midterms, he bought into the narrative that America was an economic hell scape.  He was wildly wrong, admitted as such, and said he went too far down the rabbit hole.

[wildcat09 29,347]

Polling is just completely fucking broken.

[Jive Turkey 12,594]

Drip:

 

[wildcat09 29,347]

1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

WaPo on Never Trumpers' thoughts:

For moderate Republicans who have vowed never to support former president Donald Trump, witnessing President Biden’s unfitness for another term is more than just a little alarming. As Biden struggles to salvage his reelection prospects, I asked my Post Opinions colleagues Jim Geraghty and Megan McArdle: How should Never Trumpers think about this moment?

💬 💬 💬

James Hohmann: We have heard so much about the double doubters or the double haters, and it feels like they’re going to decide this election. Is there any way that the Democratic Party’s nomination process, including an open convention, winds up giving them a more appetizing choice?

Jim Geraghty: It is a dark, perhaps catastrophic moment in public life, spurred by a majority of Republicans who desired a third Trump campaign and an almost 82-year-old man who should have known better but is blinded by his own ego and inner circle.

Megan McArdle: I have long been resigned to voting for Biden, as I did in 2020, not because I like the Democratic policy platform — I don’t — but because he was better than an erratic, impulsive narcissist with a disdain for policy detail and a total disrespect for institutional restraint. At the moment, I’m worried that the Democrats will show me they aren’t much better.

Jim: Two generic Democratic lawmakers without any Biden or Vice President Harris baggage could probably win handily against Trump — think any combo of Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker, Michael Bennet, Andy Beshear. But it will be almost impossible to get to an open convention unless Biden has a change of heart.

James: It will be fascinating to see how many House and Senate Democrats are willing to go on the record about their concerns this week. Unlike for Trump, there is far less concern about consequences for crossing Biden. But most members want to be team players.

Jim: Yeah, the impulses to protect “the big guy” and dismiss critics of your party’s leader are not just found in the GOP.

James: Biden is coming across as Trumpy in some of his cleanup tour: The defiance, the denial of reality and polls, the boasts about crowd size, the efforts to portray criticisms of him as attacks on his supporters.

If not Biden, who?

 

Jim: If it isn’t Biden, it’s almost certainly Harris. As I wrote last week, she is now, at least nominally, the less risky option.

Megan: I agree, not least because she’s likely to be fully lucid and in command during a strategic crisis. But as a candidate, she has both upsides and downsides. Democratic primary voters didn’t care for her, even in her home state. The general electorate, which is to her right, is even less likely to be wowed.

James: What do you think winds up determining the outcome of the election then? Or do you think it’s baked?

Megan: I think it will be very hard to stand up a whole new campaign in a few months. The main benefit of switching to a different candidate is that conservatives won’t have as much oppo on that person (unless that person is Harris). The drawback is that voters won’t know them, and the process is likely to be ugly.

Jim: Maybe the best-case scenario for Democrats is that Trump, overconfident from his current surge, starts venting his spleen and seeming even more unhinged. Something where just enough voters in the “blue wall” states say, “Ugh, we just can’t go through that again.”

James: Do you think Never Trumpers see through Robert F. Kennedy Jr.? Obviously, he originally hoped to appeal to Kennedy Democrats. But he has been so unhinged.

Megan: I don’t think RFK appeals to Never Trumpers at all. He’s like Trump, but less self-interested and more unhinged.

Jim: Agreed. Never Trumpers (generally) want things go back to “normal” — pre-Trump, maybe pre-Obama. RFK is the “everything stinks, everyone lies, burn the whole system down” candidate.

James: I guess that brings it back to: What should Never Trumpers do? Just wait and see how it shakes out? We are only 120 or so days from the election!

Megan: I am still reluctantly voting for Biden. But I’m not going to shame anyone who decides that they cannot vote to install a president in clear cognitive decline, whose infirmity may trigger a 25th Amendment crisis. There is no candidate for us, and that’s not a surprise, because the smallest quadrant in American politics is occupied by Never Trump conservatives and libertarians.

Jim: I’d tell people it is entirely legitimate to conclude that no presidential candidate deserves or has earned your vote. As Ted Cruz said at the 2016 GOP convention, “Vote your conscience.” Of course, Cruz knuckled under a little while later. 😝

Negged for trying to make me read Megan McArdle.

[Js1 85,296]

2 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Polling is just completely fucking broken.

Lmao. Not happening 

[Nicole44 22,059]

I know eventually Dems will be on the same page. Likely after the Repub convention. 
 

I don’t think Biden gives Dems the best chance to win the Presidency. But I’m not a pollster nor strategist. They have all said what a threat Trump’s winning is to the the country and the world. So get on the same damn page, not this dribbling leaky faucet of defections. Either have a meeting with everyone and tell them to get on board or everyone agrees Biden has to go and you form a united front of both the senate and house and tell him it’s over. He felt like he won the past two days with support of the HC and BC as well as NATO speech. 
 

it just has a frog in the boiling water feel to it. Paralyzed with stages of grief feel to it. Focus on the senate and the house races I guess. The truth is Cheeto is unpredictable and ultimately the more he talks the more he turns people off. Maybe they are banking on the Repub convention giving them so great talking points.

 

George Clooney, Stephen King, etc…calling for Biden to step aside I’m not sure moves the needle. Maybe it does with the undecideds. George ripped him today. Saying he saw him 3 weeks ago and Biden just ain’t the same guy.