2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[DigglerontheHoof 21273]

I've said it before but it amazes me we have two parties to choose from:  one that is evil to its core and the other that is completely incompetent. 

[aggie08 21578]

8 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

The truth is Cheeto is unpredictable and ultimately the more he talks the more he turns people off. Maybe they are banking on the Repub convention giving them so great talking points.

His handlers are going to do their absolute best to keep him in a bunker (next to a golf course) until November. Here's hoping he does what he always does and just can't help himself.

Great job, American legal system.

Edited July 10 by aggie08

[Loch Ness Monster 3533]

I hate this simulation.

 

 

[Duane Moore 5337]

27 minutes ago, Js1 said:

lol Wasserman was still declaring a red wave at 7pm on election night 2022.  This is pretty false, but to be fair, the zone was flooded by GOP polls pointing to that narrative and the pundits refused to believe otherwise. 

If you’ve got that tweet from Wasserman, please post it. Best I could find was the final Cook projections:

15-30 seats is not a red wave and they had 36 seats as tossups, so more broke for D’s than R’s. 

[Nicole44 22197]

Just now, aggie08 said:

His handlers are going to do their absolute best to keep him in a bunker (next to a golf course) until November. He's hoping he does what he always does and just can't help himself.

Great job, American legal system.

He won’t be able to keep it together. I had this dream (yes I know it will never happen) that Trump only wants to be President for a month. To get pardoned/saved and he will feign some health issue and resign a month in and  it’s really the VP nominee sweepstakes that we should all be watching. Trump hates living in the WH.  Does he really want to do this shit for four years? He likes rallies and stuff where people chant for him but he hates all that stuff like the actual President activities. Camp David. He thinks the actual White House is a shithole. He just wants to win and raise money for himself and get a full pardon. 
 

I should stop taking gummies before I go to bed. That was just a dream. Not gonna happen. Sigh….

[Js1 85744]

I don’t have twitter since Shitlon took it over so I can’t go back that far to find it. 

[Pancho 45428]

George Clooney now coming out saying Biden needs to drop out. 

And as they saying goes, when you’ve lost Clooney…

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[chainsaw 9998]

Can we please stop with the "don't believe any poll, ever, in fact believe the opposite" bullshit? Polls are almost always accurate. They were within one point in 2022 and within one point in 2020. If we're pinning our hopes on the outside chance that, for the first time ever, the polls are off by way more than one point AND that they're somehow underestimating the guy who missed a meeting with a head of state because he was too sleepy, we might as well embrace a culture of awarding plaques for national championships that haven't happened yet.

[Duane Moore 5337]

4 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Can we please stop with the "don't believe any poll, ever, in fact believe the opposite" bullshit? Polls are almost always accurate. They were within one point in 2022 and within one point in 2020. If we're pinning our hopes on the outside chance that, for the first time ever, the polls are off by way more than one point AND that they're somehow underestimating the guy who missed a meeting with a head of state because he was too sleepy, we might as well embrace a culture of awarding plaques for national championships that haven't happened yet.

This is where I am. I remember all the Romney supporters wanting to “unskew the polls” back in 2012 and then they turned out pretty accurate. Any one poll can be dismissed as an outlier, that certainly happens, and some pollsters are more reputable than others to be sure, but when you have lots of polls telling you roughly the same thing over time, it’s foolish to ignore them. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

i repped you because i hate motivated thinking in reading these polls.  the polls are the best evidence we've got.  but i also think they suck ass and it won't surprise me if they're wrong.  the 2020 ones particularly sucked.  

 

Quote

The 2020 polls featured polling error of an unusual magnitude: It was the highest in 40 years for the national popular vote and the highest in at least 20 years for state-level estimates of the vote in presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial contests.5 Among polls conducted in the final two weeks, the average error on the margin in either direction was 4.5 points for national popular vote polls and 5.1 points for state-level presidential polls

https://aapor.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/AAPOR-Task-Force-on-2020-Pre-Election-Polling_Report-FNL.pdf

[SubliminalHorn 6824]

No, the Arizona polls showing Gallegos up are right but ones that also show Biden down are wrong!

[wildcat09 29453]

Guys, if you think Trump is going to win 18-35 year olds, have I got a great deal on some oceanside property in Arizona for y'all!

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

1 minute ago, wildcat09 said:

Guys, if you think Trump is going to win 18-35 year olds, have I got a great deal on some oceanside property in Arizona for y'all!

i'm very happy that we have a factor in a poll that we can agree looks off.  anything for the others?

[Js1 85744]

2 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Guys, if you think Trump is going to win 18-35 year olds, have I got a great deal on some oceanside property in Arizona for y'all!

This. Or 25% of black voters. 

[chainsaw 9998]

3 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i repped you because i hate motivated thinking in reading these polls.  the polls are the best evidence we've got.  but i also think they suck ass and it won't surprise me if they're wrong.  the 2020 ones particularly sucked.  

 

https://aapor.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/AAPOR-Task-Force-on-2020-Pre-Election-Polling_Report-FNL.pdf

I'm curious how much that 4.5 points would change if you restrict the sample set only to pollsters with a B-rating or higher.

[The Original Greaser Bob 2853]

Surprised.  I thought Clooney was a Dapper Joe Man, Goddammit!

11 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Guys, if you think Trump is going to win 18-35 year olds, have I got a great deal on some oceanside property in Arizona for y'all!

Double or nothing on us Meskins?

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

4 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I'm curious how much that 4.5 points would change if you restrict the sample set only to pollsters with a B-rating or higher.

they are purporting to show it compared to the polls throughout the previous decades.  i can't imagine that the high 2020 error is because they decided to cram a bunch more questionable polls in the 2020 evaluation (thus ramping the error up) while maintaining only good polls in the pre-2020 analysis (this keeping old error low).

 

don't know for sure though how the qualify what poll to look at any year though.

[chainsaw 9998]

4 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

they are purporting to show it compared to the polls throughout the previous decades.  i can't imagine that the high 2020 error is because they decided to cram a bunch more questionable polls in the 2020 evaluation (thus ramping the error up) while maintaining only good polls in the pre-2020 analysis (this keeping old error low).

 

don't know for sure though how the qualify what poll to look at any year though.

I think 2020 will be remembered as the pollster's equivalent of a Par 5 on a windy day. Only the best pollsters knew what adjustments to make, whereas everyone else grossly overcorrected, undercorrected, and/or generally looked like the fucking amateurs they are.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33917]

This thread is bad for my health so this is likely the last thing I'll post in here (maybe?): there isn't shit you and I can do about this situation. The primaries happened, Joe is the nominee, and right now it looks like his name will be on the ballot. I also have no reservations about voting for ANBODY else with a D next to their name, should Joe need to step aside. Hand-wringing on this side does us no good. Continue to use your energy to expose as many people as possible to the horrors that await if dotard is re-elected. Assure anyone who has doubts about Joe's capacity that the Constitution already has several processes and guardrails in place should the president not be able to perform his duties. From everything I have seen before and after the stupid debate, i have no reason to believe Joe cannot perform his duties. He has so far and continues to. Unless and until he cannot, then we have to focus our energies on spotlighting how awful the other side is. Beyond that it's just mental masturbation that will end in brain blue balls.

[Duane Moore 5337]

Interesting that the drumbeat of Joe has got to go has picked up again today. I thought they’d at least keep their powder dry until the Big Boy press conference tomorrow. 
 

Watch that CBC meeting. If they turn on him, he’s done. 

[DixonHur 11596]

4 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I think 2020 will be remembered as the pollster's equivalent of a Par 5 on a windy day. Only the best pollsters knew what adjustments to make, whereas everyone else grossly overcorrected, undercorrected, and/or generally looked like the fucking amateurs they are.

Presidential golf talk not going away

[chainsaw 9998]

2 minutes ago, Duane Moore said:

Interesting that the drumbeat of Joe has got to go has picked up again today. I thought they’d at least keep their powder dry until the Big Boy press conference tomorrow. 
 

Watch that CBC meeting. If they turn on him, he’s done. 

If this happens it will be the first time in my lifetime that the DNC actually did something that resembles trying to win an election. Every D victory has usually been in spite of, and not because of, the DNC.

[aggie08 21578]

Fuck it, Joe, accept his golf challenge. I don't care if you lose. I'll pay to see that fat fuck waddle around a golf course having every single shot televised and accurately tallied 

[Js1 85744]

1 minute ago, aggie08 said:

Fuck it, Joe, accept his golf challenge. I don't care if you lose. I'll pay to see that fat fuck waddle around a golf course having every single shot televised and accurately tallied 

JD Vance will be his Smithers

[dieucla98 2942]

Maybe this is all a good thing. We're all fucking scared shitless at the moment. The left wins when voter turnout is high. What greater motivator is there than fear?

[aggie08 21578]

5 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

If this happens it will be the first time in my lifetime that the DNC actually did something that resembles trying to win an election. Every D victory has usually been in spite of, and not because of, the DNC.

Yeah, I don't see this as some giant, unhealthy, infighting mess. Adapting to new information and what's important to your constituents is what we all say we want. Fuck the "stand behind the big guy no matter what and never admit to being wrong" mentality that we ridicule the GOP for.

[SubliminalHorn 6824]

37 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

Guys, if you think Trump is going to win 18-35 year olds, have I got a great deal on some oceanside property in Arizona for y'all!

I don’t know what’s going on. Americans have short attention spans and even shorter memories. Constant news about the “bad economy” and inflation, I think, has had an effect on how people remember 2017-2021

[Loch Ness Monster 3533]

A lot of younger people are definitely depressed many of them will likely have it worse in America than their parents and grand parents. They want someone to blame.

[Aqua Buddha 14653]

18 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Fuck it, Joe, accept his golf challenge. I don't care if you lose. I'll pay to see that fat fuck waddle around a golf course having every single shot televised and accurately tallied 

Make it a bike race.  See if Trump's fat ass can even get on one.

[MrBig 5507]

27 minutes ago, Duane Moore said:

Interesting that the drumbeat of Joe has got to go has picked up again today. I thought they’d at least keep their powder dry until the Big Boy press conference tomorrow. 
 

Watch that CBC meeting. If they turn on him, he’s done. 

I think the CBC and the CHC are backing Joe for leverage to ensure that Kamala will be the candidate if he steps down. If the Democrats can’t guarantee Harris will be the nominee, I don’t think they will support him stepping down. This is just a theory and I have no proof but it would be a very strategic move for Harris supporters. 

[gmr548 16635]

13 hours ago, mdmost said:

He has to be willing to go for this to not become a complete cluster fuck. Instead, he's going to be stubborn, like an old person, and not listen to everyone telling him that he's no longer up to the task. Anyone who has dealt with an elderly relative knows how those conversations tend to go. We can only hope the sense of resignation hits him before it's all too late. It would've been better for everyone if this happened at the State of the Union instead of all us seeing it as Fool's Gold. 

Everyone in the Executive Branch needs to be looking at how best to foil what Trump plans to do when he's elected. Put as many roadblocks as you can right now if it's an option. We better pray the Democrats keep the Senate and gain some seats in the House. That's our only path to keeping this country from slipping away. 

 

13 hours ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Even if you say the Presidency is likely lost at this point with Biden or a replacement I wonder how it would impact the House and Senate- Biden vs no Biden.

Dem leadership (lol) seems to think Biden should stay in even after looking at the terrible poll numbers lately. Weird.

The Democrats cannot win the Senate without the White House barring some total collapse of support on the GOP side that sees something like Allred winning Texas or Dems holding WV or something stupid. At that point, Democrats would win the presidential election anyway. The Dems could lose only WV - holding PA, MI, WI, NV, AZ, MT, and OH - and still lose the Senate at 50-50 with VP Bergum/Vance.

I have been pretty bullish on Democrats' chances in the House. Of course if the Biden campaign has truly imploded and this election really ends up with a Trump outright popular vote victory all bets are off, but there is plenty of evidence for Democratic congressional candidates outperforming Biden and given the general disapproval of both presidential candidates, people may vote for a check on the president with their congressional votes.

Flipping the House would avert total disaster but Trump and the GOP can accomplish a lot with the WH and Senate, with SCOTUS in their back pocket too. Alito and Thomas will retire and be replaced by 45 year old FedSoc goons.

5 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

What so amazing is how out of the blue this was.  There was just no way to anticipate last year when he was 80 that he would be 81 this year. 

This is funny but honestly that is by far the worst public performance Biden has had given the length, total lack of coherence, and platform. Before you could see he was aging but generally seemed to keep it together well enough for his age. You had people like Kevin McCarthy providing quotes attesting to his ability to function in private. The SOTU, which was not exactly the 4pm Lubys buffet, was fine. It does seem like the dam has burst in recent months.

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Pelosi: Biden better make a decision soon

Biden: I’ve decided Im running unless God says don’t run

Pelosi: better decide again, I mean

lol yeah that statement was fucking weird.

[Bateshorn 9944]

Those of us that have lost a parent to mental decline can attest to the way it seems to accelerate from “Grampa is slowing down but otherwise good” to “we need to take away the keys and start calling retirement homes” 

[Aqua Buddha 14653]

Just now, Bateshorn said:

Those of us that have lost a parent to mental decline can attest to the way it seems to accelerate from “Grampa is slowing down but otherwise good” to “we need to take away the keys and start calling retirement homes” 

We're all Gen X-ers or close here which means we all know exactly what you're talking about.  That first phase can lead to that second phase quickly.

This needs to be addressed with both candidates, quite frankly.  If you have any experience with dementia, you can see Trump is just a few years away from having major problems.

[SubliminalHorn 6824]

If the GQP wins the senate they will get rid of the filibuster and add 4 justices. They don’t give a shit about decorum and tradition. The Democrats fucked everything when they had the chance. 

[Judge Roybeanbag 11822]

38 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Fuck it, Joe, accept his golf challenge. I don't care if you lose. I'll pay to see that fat fuck waddle around a golf course having every single shot televised and accurately tallied 

He should respond by challenging Trump to a lie detector test-off. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26670]

46 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Presidential golf talk not going away

You know, the “Champions Grill” at Trump Doral is pretty good.

[Nicole44 22197]

Not a good start today reading from cards at NATO Summit. Tried to speak off the script. Went right back to script. 
 

I want to cry. 😭 I’ve been there with relatives. It’s sad to watch. If Dems want him out then a united damn front. No defections. Everyone on same page. It’s too fucking important. Either all together behind him or all together forcing him out. Strong arm. Remind him this can and will get ugly. The division hurts all of us. Jmo.

again I’m not some political bigwig or donor. I don’t know anything. But that which cannot continue won’t. 

Edited July 10 by Nicole44

[baboso 6057]

Follow the money.  From the WSJ:

Campaign finance rules create an incentive for Mr. Biden to stay in the race through the Democratic National Convention in August. At that point, but not before, Mr. Biden would be able to transfer his campaign’s anticipated $100 million war chest to Vice President Kamala Harris, assuming that she, too, is still on the ticket.

If Mr. Biden drops out before the Democratic Party formally makes him its nominee, then Federal Election Commission rules dictate that no more than $2,000 of any campaign funds that he raised may be transferred to any other candidate, including Ms. Harris. The Federal Election Campaign Act governs what a presidential campaign may do with “excess campaign funds,” which is what the money left in the Biden for President campaign will legally be considered if he is no longer a candidate. Those excess funds may be contributed in an unlimited amount to the Democratic National Committee or an independent expenditure committee. Presidential campaigns may also contribute such funds to other federal campaigns, subject to contribution limits, which are $2,000 per election.

In short: Before the nomination officially goes to Mr. Biden, his campaign is limited to donating $2,000 to the Democratic nominee, whether that new standard bearer is Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer or Ms. Harris.

 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33917]

1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

You know, the “Champions Grill” at Trump Doral is pretty good.

[Aqua Buddha 14653]

Hollywood liberals starting to bail along with Clooney:

 

[SubliminalHorn 6824]

Joe’s gotta goe

[Aqua Buddha 14653]

2 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Not a good start today reading from cards at NATO Summit. Tried to speak off the script. Went right back to script. 
 

I want to cry. 😭 I’ve been there with relatives. It’s sad to watch. If Dems want him out then a united damn front. No defections. Everyone on same page. It’s too fucking important. Either all together behind him or all together. The division hurts all of us. Jmo.

again I’m not some political bigwig or donor. I don’t know anything. But that which cannot continue won’t. 

The Congressional leadership should demand an in person meeting.  His refusal to meet with the Senate Dems was disrespectful.  They should make it clear behind the scenes that they meet with him and no family members.  If not, bounce him at the convention and humiliate him.  

Believe it or not, the President of the United State has no leverage here.

[MrBig 5507]

4 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

If the GQP wins the senate they will get rid of the filibuster and add 4 justices. They don’t give a shit about decorum and tradition. The Democrats fucked everything when they had the chance. 

The Dems fucked up when they didn’t invoke the nuclear option to confirm the Merrick Garland nomination.

The Dems fucked up when they didn’t push RGB off the court when she was already old and sick.

The Dems fucked up when they lost to Donald Trump the first time because they thought he was a big fucking joke.

It’s nice to see some Dems trying to actually do something instead of just sitting back and letting shit like this happen again. 

[Aqua Buddha 14653]

Next week is the Republican convention.  He should announce on Monday that he's stepping down and take all of the oxygen out of the room for the Republicans.

[David Dennison 19117]

8 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

The Congressional leadership should demand an in person meeting.  His refusal to meet with the Senate Dems was disrespectful.  They should make it clear behind the scenes that they meet with him and no family members.  If not, bounce him at the convention and humiliate him.  

Believe it or not, the President of the United State has no leverage here.

Bouncing him at the convention would take a level of cooperation that does not exist.

Until the party is united against him, he has leverage.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

13 minutes ago, baboso said:

Follow the money.  From the WSJ:

Campaign finance rules create an incentive for Mr. Biden to stay in the race through the Democratic National Convention in August. At that point, but not before, Mr. Biden would be able to transfer his campaign’s anticipated $100 million war chest to Vice President Kamala Harris, assuming that she, too, is still on the ticket.

If Mr. Biden drops out before the Democratic Party formally makes him its nominee, then Federal Election Commission rules dictate that no more than $2,000 of any campaign funds that he raised may be transferred to any other candidate, including Ms. Harris. The Federal Election Campaign Act governs what a presidential campaign may do with “excess campaign funds,” which is what the money left in the Biden for President campaign will legally be considered if he is no longer a candidate. Those excess funds may be contributed in an unlimited amount to the Democratic National Committee or an independent expenditure committee. Presidential campaigns may also contribute such funds to other federal campaigns, subject to contribution limits, which are $2,000 per election.

In short: Before the nomination officially goes to Mr. Biden, his campaign is limited to donating $2,000 to the Democratic nominee, whether that new standard bearer is Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer or Ms. Harris.

 

good info. given that so much of the $ would have to be spent to raise the next person's profile (can't just all be anti-Trump ads that DNC/independent could do), this seems very limiting.

 

[SimonBolivar 10961]

14 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

  If not, bounce him at the convention and humiliate him.  

Believe it or not, the President of the United State has no leverage here.

[Duane Moore 5337]

19 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

Not a good start today reading from cards at NATO Summit. Tried to speak off the script. Went right back to script. 
 

I want to cry. 😭 I’ve been there with relatives. It’s sad to watch. If Dems want him out then a united damn front. No defections. Everyone on same page. It’s too fucking important. Either all together behind him or all together forcing him out. Strong arm. Remind him this can and will get ugly. The division hurts all of us. Jmo.

again I’m not some political bigwig or donor. I don’t know anything. But that which cannot continue won’t. 

It’s elder abuse at this point. 

[Aqua Buddha 14653]

 

[Duane Moore 5337]

No clarity from CBC: