2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Js1 85338]

3 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

I don't think I worry too much about scaring off the light racists/misogynists with a Harris nomination considering a vote for Biden in 2024 is essentially a vote for President Harris in 2026.

This.  Anyone who would be fine voting for Joe, but not Kamala, is being disingenuous or a troll or a Russian bot.  Because you're basically voting for her to be POTUS in 2025 or 2026.

[Vegas64 675]

3 hours ago, Pam Cummings said:

Every response to this should be "when are the Republicans replacing their candidate? Why aren't we asking about that?"

I think fundamentally what you are missing is that the people calling for Biden to step down are saying this because the polls/fear is that he is going to lose and he’s NOT the best nominee with the BEST chance to win.

Trump IS the best nominee with the BEST chance to win (and this was true two weeks ago even when I thought he would get smoked), thus no calls from his party for him to step down. You get the opposite, a rallying movement around him.

Biden isn’t being asked to step down simply because he is old and slowing down. It’s because his age and slowing down is costing him votes (at least that’s the argument from those who want him gone) and risking his chances of winning. 
 

See what I’m saying? The only standard candidates are being held to are “optimal chances of winning the election based upon the sensibilities and tastes of their base constituents and the sliver of swing voters to be had”.

Edited July 12 by Vegas64

[Pancho 44804]

6 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

I don't think I worry too much about scaring off the light racists/misogynists with a Harris nomination considering a vote for Biden in 2024 is essentially a vote for President Harris on January 21, 2025.

FIFY

[Js1 85338]

I'm also not opposed to taking that message *unofficially* to voters of color, women and young voters

"A vote for Joe now is a vote for President Harris next year." 

It's not the catchiest, but let's be real, we all know it to be true.  Dump Trump and then Joe will step aside.

[Dbeasy 15051]

49 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I don’t even understand that answer. Ok, let’s say all politicians lie. What is it about trumps lies that they like so much?  Is it still just a fuck you to the establishment in their minds?  Horrifying racism?  Nationalist zealotry?

They are so ill-informed, they lump everything into one big blob. Trump’s espionage of trying to sell state secrets and actively hide documents? Well, Biden had documents. When you try to explain to them they are completely different things, they just shrug. It’s infuriating they can be so illogical. 

[Slacks 6821]

This whole thing is fucked.

[Red Five 40859]

They are so ill-informed, they lump everything into one big blob. Trump’s espionage of trying to sell state secrets and actively hide documents? Well, Biden had documents. When you try to explain to them they are completely different things, they just shrug. It’s infuriating they can be so illogical. 

“They all do it. All politicians are terrible. That’s why I vote Republican 100% of the time.”

[closetohumping 17442]

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I'm also not opposed to taking that message *unofficially* to voters of color, women and young voters

"A vote for Joe now is a vote for President Harris next year." 

It's not the catchiest, but let's be real, we all know it to be true.  Dump Trump and then Joe will step aside.

I don’t think Joe is gonna step aside at any point. 

[immamac 42850]

I think Biden is actually right. As long as foreign leaders don't come out and say he's lost his marbles and can't get them what they need etc. I think he's fine.

His policy is working, in a 2nd term he'll be able to let them keep working on some of the stuff, especially at the FTC level to really get something going. 

I wonder how the fed would respond to a president who was meddling with the central bank as official business.

[Bateshorn 9927]

14 minutes ago, Js1 said:

This.  Anyone who would be fine voting for Joe, but not Kamala, is being disingenuous or a troll or a Russian bot.  Because you're basically voting for her to be POTUS in 2025 or 2026.

Real Talk:  It's not clear to me that Joe will be able to be publicly sworn in next January even if he wins. This is why he's gotta step aside:  It's more than a little  fucking morbid that there are people on this thread who are essentially advancing a "Joe is just gotta win, then he can drop dead" line.   Let's be honest, that was the line in 2020, when we all just needed him to get sworn in, then democracy saved.  The fact that he is running again after that was the game plan 4 years ago is appalling. 

[Chuckie Finster 22694]

4 minutes ago, immamac said:

I think Biden is actually right. As long as foreign leaders don't come out and say he's lost his marbles and can't get them what they need etc. I think he's fine.

His policy is working, in a 2nd term he'll be able to let them keep working on some of the stuff, especially at the FTC level to really get something going. 

I wonder how the fed would respond to a president who was meddling with the central bank as official business.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/11/nato-allies-weakened-biden-trump-return-00167424

Quote

“It’s a very weird feeling to be in Europe listening to the president of the United States, and you’re more stressed about whether he will go off script than being excited to listen to the leader of the free world,” a senior European diplomat said. “You’re worried if he knows which direction he’s going or whether he’s going to fall or what he’s going to forget or if he’ll say ‘North Korea’ when he meant ‘South Korea.’ It’s just a weird experience.”

There's definitely more out there, we'll see if last night stops the drip-drip-drip.

[SKJ 1311]

Seriously...

Andrew Santino said it best

 

 

[Duane Moore 5237]

15 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I'm also not opposed to taking that message *unofficially* to voters of color, women and young voters

"A vote for Joe now is a vote for President Harris next year." 

It's not the catchiest, but let's be real, we all know it to be true.  Dump Trump and then Joe will step aside.

If Kamala is the political talent some people think, the campaign should have her out there front and center making the case in the winnable battlegrounds. Keep her on a rotation of holding rallies in Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and Detroit on a continuous loop from now until November. 

[mdmost 43001]

Agreed. Kamala needs to be at the forefront so undecided see her and can realize if Biden can't complete his next term, you have a competent VP who will step in. 

[Captainant 27669]

14 minutes ago, immamac said:

His policy is working, in a 2nd term he'll be able to let them keep working on some of the stuff, especially at the FTC level to really get something going. 

In light of the Chevron ruling, do you REALLY think the supremes will let Biden accomplish anything through his agencies? I feel it's more likely that alito and thomas lean even harder into obstructionism to sling shit at the (D) administration 

[David Dennison 18860]

14 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Real Talk:  It's not clear to me that Joe will be able to be publicly sworn in next January even if he wins. This is why he's gotta step aside:  It's more than a little  fucking morbid that there are people on this thread who are essentially advancing a "Joe is just gotta win, then he can drop dead" line.   Let's be honest, that was the line in 2020, when we all just needed him to get sworn in, then democracy saved.  The fact that he is running again after that was the game plan 4 years ago is appalling. 

What did you expect?

[Hank Kingsley 20941]

2 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Agreed. Kamala needs to be at the forefront so undecided see her and can realize if Biden can't complete his next term, you have a competent VP who will step in. 

It also would help if more politicians and talking heads calling for Joe to step aside mention her by name. 

Saying "Joe needs to go" is not good enough. Clearly present the backup option. A lot of people understandably can't wrap their head around trying to pick another candidate 4 months out. 

 

[Duane Moore 5237]

This seems big. As long as Clyburn sticks with him, I can’t see Biden stepping down. 
 

 

[South Austin 52508]

Wait till Biden calls him Morgan Freeman.

[jimmyjazz 45957]

2 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Wait till Biden calls him Morgan Freeman.

[Dbeasy 15051]

As someone earlier said, what various politicians say about Biden at this point is completely secondary to the private polls they are privy to on swing states. If those polls show Biden losing and Harris winning, the Dems must make the change. And if they don’t, well then buckle up. 

[Hank Kingsley 20941]

Colorado Congresswoman 

 

['stache 21815]

52 minutes ago, Js1 said:

This.  Anyone who would be fine voting for Joe, but not Kamala, is being disingenuous or a troll or a Russian bot.  Because you're basically voting for her to be POTUS in 2025 or 2026.

 

49 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

I think fundamentally what you are missing is that the people calling for Biden to step down are saying this because the polls/fear is that he is going to lose and he’s NOT the best nominee with the BEST chance to win.

Trump IS the best nominee with the BEST chance to win (and this was true two weeks ago even when I thought he would get smoked), thus no calls from his party for him to step down. You get the opposite, a rallying movement around him.

Biden isn’t being asked to step down simply because he is old and slowing down. It’s because his age and slowing down is costing him votes (at least that’s the argument from those who want him gone) and risking his chances of winning. 
 

See what I’m saying? The only standard candidates are being held to are “optimal chances of winning the election based upon the sensibilities and tastes of their base constituents and the sliver of swing voters to be had”.

My concern is that there are some old school democrats, primarily in the rust belt, who wholly support equality, but still have some internalized racist and misogynistic tendencies that would make them second guess Kamala Harris. Obama was probably able to overcome that with his overwhelming charm and inspirational character (and being male), Kamala doesn't have that capability. I like her well enough but even I find her public speaking to be less than inspirational or magnetic. But I said earlier, she should at least be on the campaign trail with him, and they should speak at the same rallies back to back so that anyone who has a concern with Biden's slowdown at least know what the backup is and that she'd do well enough.

I said it before, I think we're all speculating here and have strong opinions, but a decision needs to be made now, and everyone needs to rally. As big of a mistake I personally think it would be to replace Joe with Kamala at the top of the ticket, if that's the decision, I'm all in for Kamala. Just shit or get off the pot already. If Joe says he's staying, and if the party delegates or going with that, stop fucking undermining him already and go all in already.

[6th Street 6407]

3 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Colorado Congresswoman 

 

Damn that cunt is my congresswoman

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

10 hours ago, David Dennison said:

Fox News. That's it. That's the answer.

No.  Fox is giving those people what they already want.  They’d get it somewhere else if not Fox.  Us normal people see that and say wtf.  
Others have it deep inside of them to see that shit and it hits their limbic system like a shot of heroin right into your dick veins.  

[Pancho 44804]

 

[Bateshorn 9927]

6 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

Damn that cunt is my congresswoman

Dude, that is not the preferred nomenclature.

Edited July 12 by Bateshorn

[jimmyjazz 45957]

2 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

That is not the preferred nomenclature.

Congressperson?

[Degenerate Gardner 4085]

56 minutes ago, Slacks said:

This whole thing is fucked.

Yet not nearly as fucked as it would be if Trump gets a 2nd term. I’ll take a elderly statesman over an elderly grifting traitorous sociopath every damn time.

[Rex Kramer 1338]

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

FIFY

I don’t disagree with you at the rate Biden has deteriorated. Begs the question, why not replace now?  It’s insanity he’s moving forward and he has a large camp of people supporting his decision, including here. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13512]

I will vote for Biden any day over Trump but it's not too late for Biden to drop out. And for a new candidate to beat Trump.

Biden has now proven that he is not a good candidate and it puts in question his ability to lead. Even if he wins in November, I don't think he should remain President. Biden is a good person and I can feel for him that he's diminished now and it must be tough to accept that, but being President isn't about his feelings.

[Jive Turkey 12598]

1 hour ago, Duane Moore said:

This seems big. As long as Clyburn sticks with him, I can’t see Biden stepping down. 
 

 

Clyburn is older than Biden. Clyburn will be 84 in 9 days.  olds gotta stick together.

but he left the door open for a change:

Quote

But he didn't completely close the door on Biden standing aside. He added that if the president "decides to change his mind later on, then we will respond to that. We have until the 19th of August to open our convention." Clyburn also expressed full confidence in Vice President Kamala Harris.

https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/07/12/congress/clyburns-00167781

Edited July 12 by Jive Turkey

[babysdaddy 2724]

 

[wildcat09 29354]

After Biden's debate performance, the Presidential race is unchanged:

Quote

The race for the presidency remains statistically tied despite President Biden’s dismal debate performance two weeks ago, a new national NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll finds.

Biden actually gained a point since last month’s survey, which was taken before the debate. In this poll, he leads Trump 50% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup. But Biden slips when third-party options are introduced, with Trump holding the slightest advantage with 43% to 42%.

Those numbers, though, do not represent statistically significant differences, as the margin of error in the survey is +/- 3.1 percentage points, meaning results could be 3 points higher or lower.

The poll also found that, at this point, no other mainstream Democrat who has been mentioned as a replacement for the president on the ticket does better than Biden.

The results reflect the hyperpolarized political environment in the country and the reality that both of the major parties’ presumptive nominees bring with them significant disadvantages. Majorities of those surveyed continue to say they have a negative opinion of both men, and neither, they say, should be on the ballot at all.

“This is an unpleasant rematch with two unpopular people,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, “but Biden gets points for honesty and character. As a result, there’s a lot of canceling out.”

Nearly two-thirds of the more than 1,300 respondents said they believe Biden lacks the mental fitness to be president. That includes almost 4 in 10 Democrats.

Almost two-thirds of Americans think Biden doesn't have the mental fitness to serve as president

But the survey also found that by a 2-to-1 margin, 68% to 32%, people said it’s more concerning to have a president who doesn’t tell the truth than one who might be too old to serve.

Which is more concerning in a president?

A majority said Biden has the character to be president (52%), while a majority also said Trump does not (56%).

Divided opinions on the character of the major-party presidential candidates

Still, nearly 6 in 10 believe Trump will win, including a quarter of Democrats, and national polls are far less important than in the most competitive states. A Democratic presidential candidate typically needs a wider margin in national polls for that to translate to an Electoral College victory because of the nature of swing states. They, in general, lean more conservative than the country at large because Democratic votes are concentrated on the coasts.

A race likely to be decided on the margins

Since the debate, on average, polls have shown Biden slipping a couple of points, but pollsters generally say it takes a couple of weeks for public opinion to settle after a major political event — and the changes have been within the margin of error.

Plus, while some Democratic leaders have called for Biden to step aside — and an even larger number are very concerned about his chances — there has also been significant pushback from many rank-and-file voters on the left, who see unbalanced media scrutiny since the debate on Biden’s flaws as compared to Trump’s.

That said, politicians tend to be good political weathervanes, with their own high-quality polling, and several of the Democratic House members who have advocated for Biden to leave the race are from competitive swing districts.

Third parties pull younger voters, Biden doing better with those most likely to vote

When third parties are factored in, Trump and Biden are statistically tied, with Trump at 43% and Biden 42%.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pulled 8%, tied for the lowest support for him since Marist started including him in the survey in April. Professor Cornel West, running as an independent, got 3%, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein received 2%.

A significant area of concern for Biden is younger voters. Biden drops 13 points with Gen Z/Millennials when third-party candidates are factored in.

In fact, 1 in 5 Gen Z/Millennials choose a third-party candidate when the option is offered, higher than any other age group. But they are the least-likely age group to say they are definitely going to vote.

Biden is actually being buoyed by high-propensity voters. That’s a change from past election cycles when low-turnout elections were thought to favor Republicans.

Trump and Biden are tied, 45% to 45%, with the voters who say they are definitely voting. But Biden is doing better with older votes and white voters with college degrees than he did in 2020. Traditionally, those are two groups that have had among the highest participation rates of any voting blocs.

Biden’s approval rating overall is 43%, but it jumps to 47% with those who say they are definitely voting.

If not Biden, who else?

This question may be at the heart of why even more Democratic officials have not called for Biden to step aside.

At this point, no other Democrat tested does better and all are statistically tied with Trump, too.

Vice President Kamala Harris, the most likely successor if Biden were to decide against continuing his campaign, also gets 50% compared to 49% for Trump. California Gov. Gavin Newsom mirrors Biden at 50% to 48% over Trump. And Trump and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer are at 49% to 49%.

If November's general election for president were held today, whom would you support if the candidates were ...

So there is no clear Democratic alternative, though, as Democrats who have called for Biden to step aside would argue, those candidates could all make the case more coherently for themselves and the party.

Pollsters also expect that Trump will likely get a bounce from the Republican convention, as is the case traditionally in the days and weeks following a convention. That may set off yet another round of Democratic concerns and calls for Biden to step aside in the month until the Democrats’ convention in Chicago in August.

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

theory: it is already decided that biden is going to drop out, but they've identified a future date to do it because at that time it'd be too late to do anything other than just pass the torch to harris.  they want that to avoid a nasty fight that will make the party overall a loser.

 

evidence: none.

4 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

After Biden's debate performance, the Presidential race is unchanged:

 

 i mean, maybe.  we marvel at right wingers only doubling and tripling down the worse trump acts.  this might be the democrat equivalent.

[Sawbonz 27562]

1 hour ago, Duane Moore said:

This seems big. As long as Clyburn sticks with him, I can’t see Biden stepping down. 
 

 

Yeah, the 84 year-old is all in

[BrazilHorn 6607]

I think Newsom would get smoked this fall. 
CA guy with minimal national exposure that will be portrayed as career politician/hollywood shill. Also for him to displace Harris would be huge slap in face to people of color and women. 
 

This would be huge misstep if he were to be put forth. 
 

I would do Whitmer this fall (If Harris weren’t choice) as at least she won in a swing state. 

[Hank Kingsley 20941]

Ok, let's discuss how we can win with Joe with a few attempts at currently true statements. 

1. The polls - at best - have Biden up at 1-3% nationally - which would still be an electoral college loss. Democratic nominee needs to win popular vote by 4-6% in order to secure an EC victory. While polling is an imperfect science - especially nowadays - I think it's fair to assume Biden is losing right now. 

2. Trump, the GOP, and right wing media want Biden to stay in the race. Every comment from them since the debate supports that. 

3. Trump will not debate Biden again. Debates used to not matter that much, but the last debate has proven to be a massive turning point in the narrative of this race. Joe will not get the opportunity to have a better and victorious performance vs. Trump. 

4. Fundraising has taken a significant hit since the debate with donors holding back their money.

 

What can be done to gain momentum for Biden? Or are we just hoping/praying it plays out like 2020 (where Biden BARELY won) and that voters treat this as another referendum on Trump? 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

1 minute ago, BrazilHorn said:

I think Newsom would get smoked this fall. 
CA guy with minimal national exposure that will be portrayed as career politician/hollywood shill. Also for him to displace Harris would be huge slap in face to people of color and women. 
 

This would be huge misstep if he were to be put forth. 
 

I would do Whitmer this fall (If Harris weren’t choice) as at least she won in a swing state. 

agree on all points, but almost also think it has to be harris or no go at all.

[Hank Kingsley 20941]

25 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

 

This is the way to get Joe to drop out. 

We can all strategize with different scenarios, but if the money's gone then it's over. 

 

 

[Goredho 17406]

2 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

What can be done to gain momentum for Biden? Or are we just hoping/praying it plays out like 2020 (where Biden BARELY won) and that voters treat this as another referendum on Trump? 

Time Machine.  Yes.

[Red Five 40859]

Hilariously wrong names aside, there was a huge difference between Last Night Biden, and Debate Biden. Last night Biden was a lot closer to the 2020 version. He evidently does have good and bad days, and if he stays in he cannot have any more bad days. Sigh.

What a pickle.

[Foosters 17856]

5 hours ago, Pam Cummings said:

The double standard is just too much for me. We cannot have an environment where one guy gets roasted for every single misstep and the other guy is just not getting held to any standard. It is such a joke. And yall wanna play right into that instead of saying no, fuck you guys, we're not doing that. It's like Michael Bolton on Office Space, saying "why should I change? He's the one who sucks."

This very feeling is the reason that I've: cancelled my NT Times and LA Times subscriptions, removed all news/political accounts from Instagram, and deleted all political/news subreddits from my Reddit feed. All in the last 3 months. I don't have to be an active participant in my own gaslighting.

Checking this board every now and then is my only real access to this race. Trying to cut that down as well.

I only have one vote. Whether or not I consume this toxic bullshit will have no impact on my vote or the race in general. It just injects fear and dread into my daily existence. No thanks.

[jimmyjazz 45957]

3 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

1. The polls - at best - have Biden up at 1-3% nationally - which would still be an electoral college loss. Democratic nominee needs to win popular vote by 4-6% in order to secure an EC victory.

You might be putting too fine a point on this.  Biden had a 4.5% lead in the popular vote last time around and won the EC by 74.  On the other hand, Hillary had a 2.1% advantage in the popular vote and lost the EC by 77.  I don't know where the tipping point is -- swing states obviously dominate -- but if we eyeball it I would say it might be Dem +3.3%.  I guess it's close to your numbers but I think there is a lot of fuzz there.  And, as you and I have both said, I don't think the polls mean much in terms of predictive value of the popular vote.

[Pancho 44804]

1 hour ago, Duane Moore said:

This seems big. As long as Clyburn sticks with him, I can’t see Biden stepping down. 
 

 

I mean Clyburn is a big Kamala fan as well and has said he’d support her too if she were the nominee. I wouldn’t read too much into this.

[Sawbonz 27562]

7 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Ok, let's discuss how we can win with Joe with a few attempts at currently true statements. 

1. The polls - at best - have Biden up at 1-3% nationally - which would still be an electoral college loss. Democratic nominee needs to win popular vote by 4-6% in order to secure an EC victory. While polling is an imperfect science - especially nowadays - I think it's fair to assume Biden is losing right now. 

2. Trump, the GOP, and right wing media want Biden to stay in the race. Every comment from them since the debate supports that. 

3. Trump will not debate Biden again. Debates used to not matter that much, but the last debate has proven to be a massive turning point in the narrative of this race. Joe will not get the opportunity to have a better and victorious performance vs. Trump. 

4. Fundraising has taken a significant hit since the debate with donors holding back their money.

 

What can be done to gain momentum for Biden? Or are we just hoping/praying it plays out like 2020 (where Biden BARELY won) and that voters treat this as another referendum on Trump? 

What we really need is an accurate poll of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada. I don’t know how you get an accurate poll of them, but that’s going to be the difference. If Biden can’t win those, can’t win the presidency. 

IMO if you can’t get those data you have to move on. The risk is too great 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

no one wants to read posts from people that pluralize data.

[Js1 85338]

2 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

What we really need is an accurate poll of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada. I don’t know how you get an accurate poll of them, but that’s going to be the difference. If Biden can’t win those, can’t win the presidency. 

IMO if you can’t get those data you have to move on. The risk is too great 

There’s never an accurate poll Of Nevada. It’s too hard to poll

[Hank Kingsley 20941]

Clyburn is "all-in" until he isn't. 

[Sawbonz 27562]

 

Give trump Georgia’s 16 EV and NE 1. Even if WI goes trump with Harris, I believe she keeps all the other states Biden won last time. 
 

I really don’t think Biden will do so.