2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[BrickHorn 18237]

21 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

I understand all of these to an extent, but I think a lot of the hesitancy is based of false propaganda they've been hearing for their whole lives.  It goes back to the 80's concepts of "bootstraps", and "greed is good".

The truth is there needs to be a reprogramming effort that focuses on the benefits of these ideas.

 

You’re preaching to the choir on that. But maybe focus on preventing a fascist takeover first and, in the short term at least, avoid turning off potential allies by pushing a neosocialist purity test. 

Edited July 19 by BrickHorn

[Zonahorn 8079]

4 minutes ago, troph said:

I don't recall it was an article posted here. John King on CNN when doing his map math said their current "projections" included talking to both campaigns though. and CNN doesn't have many (or at least enough) swing states leaning Biden right now.

I can’t find the article. CNN’s projections are based on their polling and congress staffs analysts/pundits. CNN doesn’t talk to campaign staff about how things look on the ground

[Red Five 40859]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

You think there's only a 30% chance he stays? 

Something like that.

[Ghost of LL 15531]

33 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

Joe isn’t dropping out

He doesn't need to be a candidate to be on the campaign trail.

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

But I think everyone who thinks he's lost a step, or has early onset, is overlooking how emotional an old fucking man can get. And irrtaional. It all goes out the window. That's a normal part of aging. And no one thinks that dynamic can exist in Joe Biden and this decision? I dunno man. 

Dude--he's 81.  He doesn't have "early onset" anything.  At this point, anything that onsets is doing so in a pretty timely fucking manner.

[Gap03 3308]

32 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

Joe isn’t dropping out

Someone should string together a video of Biden "making the case" and make him sit and watch it a few times.  I don't think he understands how bad he sounds a good 25% of the time.

[MrBig 5404]

Just now, Gap03 said:

Someone should string together a video of Biden "making the case" and make him sit and watch it a few times.  I don't think he understands how bad he sounds a good 25% of the time.

They should do like those YouTube reaction videos and show Biden everyone’s reaction when he’s talking with a split screen. 

[DixonHur 11314]

11 minutes ago, troph said:

oh yeah, the reason it's in the fascist playbook is because of our tribal instincts.

Yep.  We're all just rearranging deck chairs on the SS Humanity while it slowly sinks, and the band continues to play as if nothing is happening. 

Edited July 19 by DixonHur

[Brisketexan 105151]

3 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

Yep.  We're all just rearranging deck chairs on the SS Humanity while it slowly sinks, and the band continues to play as if nothing is happening. 

While half our electorate is telling us "the sinking means it's working!"

This is who we are:

[Gap03 3308]

8 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

You’re preaching to the choir on that. But maybe focus on preventing a fascist takeover first and, in the short term at least, avoid turning off potential allies by pushing a neosocialist purity test. 

Good luck with that.  We can't even reprogram these idiots to believe facts, not sure how you expect to re-shape ideology that has been drilled into them for the last 40+ years, especially with the way our educational system has shifted in the last 10 years..  

[Dutchrudder 11139]

Harris polls really well with younger voters, blacks, Latinos, and people who hate both Trump/Biden. She really should be the obvious choice here, and the Democrats would immediately make many of those battleground states tossups at the very least. It would become "The Prosecutor vs The Felon", and that's a pretty snazzy campaign phase that even the dullest of minds out there can understand. She doesn't have anywhere near the immense amount of baggage that Hillary carried with her into the 2016 campaign, and she should have a few months to make her case for America. I doubt Trump debates her though, but that may work in her favor. 

[TexEx15 17535]

5 hours ago, Vegas64 said:

Biden still has a lot of bullets in the gun before election that can give him tailwind: There WILL be a rate cut, which he can tout for fighting against inflation, the stock market will continue to do numbers, so he can keep talking about the best economy while inflation drops, the USA will dominate in the Olympics which always boosts patriotism and morale that Biden can ride, and the general incumbancy strength will be a buttress-- don't change horses in midstream.

This is not wrong. It also does not address the elephant in the room. How do you change the optics of an 81 years man that appears to be getting frailer by the day? To be clear I’d take Biden over Trump even if he were in Hospice. It’s not me they have to convince though.

[DixonHur 11314]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

While half our electorate is telling us "the sinking means it's working!"

This is who we are:

It's the "if I can't have her/him/them, no one will" mentality

[bolverk 29683]

5 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

I see you watched that too last night. Sobering. He’s not Tim Russert (personal favorite RIP) but he’s really good and he’s spent a year working on this report. It knocked me out of my Trump speech coma last night. 

Try Delta 9 out. No calories, no hangover, helps with sleep, and abates anxiety through the next day. 

[DixonHur 11314]

2 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

This is not wrong. It also does not address the elephant in the room. How do you change the optics of an 81 years man that appears to be getting frailer by the day? To be clear I’d take Biden over Trump even if he were in Hospice. It’s not me they have to convince though.

Not sure, but it probably doesn't look like this...

Quote

Rep. Moulton said then-Vice President Biden was one of his biggest supporters during his 2014 election bid, holding a rally in Massachusetts to help boost his popularity. That experience, he said, turned Biden into “a mentor and friend.”

The two remained close throughout the years, Rep. Moulton wrote, keeping in touch to talk about TV interviews and sometimes sharing breakfast at Biden's house. This, however, changed during one of their most recent interactions.

More recently, I saw him in a small group at Normandy for the 80th anniversary of D-Day,” the representative wrote. “For the first time, he didn’t seem to recognize me.”

Dem rep says Biden 'didn't seem to recognize' him at D-Day event, demands race exit (local12.com)

Just now, bolverk said:

Try Delta 9 out. No calories, no hangover, helps with sleep, and abates anxiety through the next day. 

Can confirm

[Zonahorn 8079]

23 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Correct, although I'm curious as to why you think this ultimately means Biden will be the candidate.

 

 

It means the group trying to get him to drop out got told he wasn’t dropping out.

 

26 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

You misunderstand me. I"m saying that quote means jack shit. The guy will deny deny deny until he drops out. Reporting is worthless on it. 

I'm actually 60/40 in thinking he stays. 

I think the endless leaks and media lies have gone too far. I’m just tired of seeing it, especially without any pushback. The assumption for Democrats, Anti-Trump Republicans/Independents, and left leaning independents needs to be Joe Biden being the Democratic nominee, or Kamala Harris if something happens to him. Anything else opens up the possibility the Anti-Trump coalition breaks up.

I’m 99.5/.5 on Biden being the nominee on the off chance something happens to him.

Edited July 19 by Zonahorn

[mchookem 16336]

44 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

 

 

i mean wtf do i know, maybe the guy on here earlier (can't remember name) who said the 'boots on the ground' folks in most all the swing states are in fact feeling really good is right. i don't know, nobody knows, we're all just looking around saying 'for god's sake do SOMETHING, whatever it is!' 

i do agree with Nicole...assuming it becomes obvious in the next 48 hours that he either is or isn't...EVERYBODY needs to get the fuck on board and start going full press. stfu with all the 'behind the scenes' and 'new leaks' bullshit. gotdamn democrats are TERRIBLE at this part of their job!! like they literally could not be worse! i have replied to every text with that message btw...i'm sure they are going off into the ether, but it makes me feel better lol 

[Chuckie Finster 22694]

1 minute ago, Zonahorn said:

It means the group trying to get him to drop out got told he wasn’t dropping out.

So now we are basically just waiting to see who folds first: Biden or literally every other powerful Democrat in the country.  It's surprising to me to think that Biden will win that battle.

[gmr548 16580]

6 hours ago, TexEx15 said:

 

Nate Silver is legitimately a very good modeler/forecaster but he has some really out-there takes sometimes.

6 hours ago, TexEx15 said:

 

Will Tom Homan put a piss chart in the White House bathrooms?

5 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

AOC went on Instagram last night echoing many of my thoughts, which is how I know I'm right and she's the smartest politician to have ever lived.

My problem with Biden remaining the nominee at this point is the media will likely just continue the intense focus on his being old for the remainder of the campaign (the idea of that remaining the only real story of this fucking election for another four months might drive me to commit murder) and I don't think Biden can successfully rebut it because he'll continue to have some flubs and some more embarrassing moments like the BET interview.  

My problem with Biden stepping aside is that nobody pressuring him to do so has actually thought any of this through, it's just a ratfuck campaign from donors mixed with genuine panic by a lot of Democratic officials who I think are putting too much stock in shitty polls. And if the donors will ratfuck Harris too after Biden steps aside and just bribe delegates to pick whomever they prefer, that's not really any different from if Pence had decided he in fact COULD disregard the votes on 1/6 and choose alternate slates of electors. If it's not Biden it has to be Harris, and if they try to bypass Harris Biden needs to drop a Raytheon knife missile on those fuckers.

 

4 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

See, you're gonna get the worst of all worlds.

By this point, the Dems have done so much self-harm to their elected (that's right, the primary voters voted for him) candidate that he's so damaged that the prophecy is self-fulfilling: now, the only smart move is for him to drop out.

BUT....he isn't going to drop out.  So, against Donald Trump, we're going to run a candidate that we ourselves have completely undermined and destroyed.  Well-done, opposition party, well done.  Was the "shoot your own dick CLEAN OFF" package not available?

I've been kind of wishy washy throughout this whole saga but I think I am landing on these. It's clear form where AOC and other progressive lawmakers have stood that this push is more about self preservation and/or placating donors for centrist candidates. And AOC is correct in pointing out Biden's electoral strengths; the part of the Biden coalition that has held up is overrepresented in the most critical EC states. You can go a long way with black voters and educated/older white voters in the Rust Belt.

Too be fair, AOC and most progressives occupy comfortably safe seats; the incentives are different. I get it. It does feel a little dirty, though. Biden does not necessarily deserve this - although if he and his team have been making such comprehensive efforts to conceal Biden's ability to be present in the job, the blame is ultimately in the mirror. I believe it's a self-fulfilling prophecy now. The Biden campaign is mortally wounded. I don't see a path; fair or not, the age thing and fractures within the party are going to sink him if he is on the ballot in November.

Harris cannot be bypassed though. I don't even say that as a particularly strong supporter of hers. Black leaders - and the black voters that make up a very large portion of the Democratic primary electorate - have made it cleat they stand behind Biden; and that if he is to step aside, Harris needs to be the alternative. The black community is simply too important to the Democratic Party and has contributed too much to the current Democratic control of the White House and Senate to ratfuck them like that, let alone the obvious, warranted implication of institutional racism that would come from forcing both the black community's preferred candidate and the actual black candidate out for whatever other less qualified candidate emerges from a largely white consensus. Not to mention the Democratic Party's ability to execute that without further self-harming is questionable at best.

[David Dennison 18865]

I think team Biden knows it's over. 

I didn't think the Democrats had it in them to revolt, but here we are.

[Zonahorn 8079]

Just now, mchookem said:

i mean wtf do i know, maybe the guy on here earlier (can't remember name) who said the 'boots on the ground' folks in most all the swing states are in fact feeling really good is right. i don't know, nobody knows, we're all just looking around saying 'for god's sake do SOMETHING, whatever it is!' 

i do agree with Nicole...assuming it becomes obvious in the next 48 hours that he either is or isn't...EVERYBODY needs to get the fuck on board and start going full press. stfu with all the 'behind the scenes' and 'new leaks' bullshit. gotdamn democrats are TERRIBLE at this part of their job!! like they literally could not be worse! i have replied to every text with that message btw...i'm sure they are going off into the ether, but it makes me feel better lol 

That was me, I feel confident Biden will get re-elected with ~350 electoral votes. The polls are wrong. The answer is run on Biden’s accomplishments and economy, and Trump being unelectable.

That I 100% agree with. The past 3 weeks have been incomprehensible. Get in line and beat the fucking fascists.

[Nicole44 22060]

So if Real Clear Politics is ok to share it’s the only place I could find the John King video last night that @trophand I saw. Here it be. And yes, @mchookemwe all need to get behind him if he doesn’t drop out. But those that are in power that want him to either need to do it dirty this weekend or stfu. Because it’s endgame. And if he doesn’t step down they need to get in line. 
 

here it be: it’s fucking sobering.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/07/19/john_king_trump_came_in_the_convention_with_at_least_270_electoral_votes_he_leaves_with_a_commanding_lead.html

 

 

 

[gmr548 16580]

2 minutes ago, Nicole44 said:

So if Real Clear Politics is ok to share it’s the only place I could find the John King video last night that @trophand I saw. Here it be. And yes, @mchookemwe all need to get behind him if he doesn’t drop out. But those that are in power that want him to either need to do it dirty this weekend or stfu. Because it’s endgame. And if he doesn’t step down they need to get in line. 
 

here it be: it’s fucking sobering.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/07/19/john_king_trump_came_in_the_convention_with_at_least_270_electoral_votes_he_leaves_with_a_commanding_lead.html

 

 

 

The RNC will not meaningfully improve Trump's standing. He'll get a 1-2 point convention polling bounce that will dissipate. No one watches these things except devoted partisans and political junkies, he spoke very late at night and was not particularly impressive. The WNBA outdrew JD Vance's acceptance speech, for context.

[Zonahorn 8079]

6 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

So now we are basically just waiting to see who folds first: Biden or literally every other powerful Democrat in the country.  It's surprising to me to think that Biden will win that battle.

Biden has gotten backing for this fight from the Black Caucus, Hispanic Caucus, the DNC and its chair, progressive caucus and his voters. Like,

He’s also the incumbent president. Opposing him are the worst media in American history and wealthy donors with ulterior motive to get him replaced. 

[Schulz2.0 28957]

6 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

That was me, I feel confident Biden will get re-elected with ~350 electoral votes. The polls are wrong. The answer is run on Biden’s accomplishments and economy, and Trump being unelectable.

That I 100% agree with. The past 3 weeks have been incomprehensible. Get in line and beat the fucking fascists.

I'd love to believe it, but that feels like you're living in a different reality. Biden's base will vote, same as it has been. The youth, independents, etc that propelled him to victory in 2020? Yeah...

[Chuckie Finster 22694]

Just now, Zonahorn said:

Biden has gotten backing for this fight from the Black Caucus, Hispanic Caucus, the DNC and its chair, progressive caucus and his voters. Like,

He’s also the incumbent president. Opposing him are the worst media in American history and wealthy donors with ulterior motive to get him replaced. 

Along with the most popular human being alive in Democratic politics, the most powerful Speaker of the House in generations, the current Democratic congressional leadership, and the majority of the Democratic base when polled on the topic.  Other than that, though, wide support!

[DixonHur 11314]

11 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

It's clear form where AOC and other progressive lawmakers have stood that this push is more about self preservation and/or placating donors for centrist candidates.

Our democracy in a nutshell, and Citizens United gave it steroids.

And I'm not picking on Dems, this is how you got Never Trumper fighting each other to see who can become Trump's biggest sycophant... hell, one just became his VP.

[troph 24810]

37 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

I can’t find the article. CNN’s projections are based on their polling and congress staffs analysts/pundits. CNN doesn’t talk to campaign staff about how things look on the ground

the article wasn't CNN. the CNN part was on TV.

[Zonahorn 8079]

8 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Along with the most popular human being alive in Democratic politics, the most powerful Speaker of the House in generations, the current Democratic congressional leadership, and the majority of the Democratic base when polled on the topic.  Other than that, though, wide support!

Obama, Pelosi, Schumer, and Jeffries support president Biden. Believing anything else is a level of trust the media doesn’t deserve. That includes their polling, which does not reflect reality.

[Zonahorn 8079]

12 minutes ago, troph said:

the article wasn't CNN. the CNN part was on TV.

I was responding to the second part of your post referring to CNN suggesting they talk to campaigns, not the article. Sorry for the mix up.

[Red Five 40859]

1 minute ago, Zonahorn said:

Obama, Pelosi, Schumer, and Jeffries support president Biden. Believing anything else is a level of trust the media doesn’t deserve. That includes their polling, which does not reflect reality.

Of course they support him, but all four of those people want him to drop out.

[Chuckie Finster 22694]

3 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

Obama, Pelosi, Schumer, and Jeffries support president Biden. Believing anything else is a level of trust the media doesn’t deserve. That includes their polling, which does not reflect reality.

Apologies, did not realize we were living in different realities.  Could have saved us both a lot of time in this back and forth.  Carry on.

Edited July 19 by Chuckie Finster

[Goofyboy 3293]

As many have said - 4 months is a life time in politics. This keeps as revenue going and clicks happening - which makes more money.

[Ghost of LL 15531]

24 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

It's clear form where AOC and other progressive lawmakers have stood that this push is more about self preservation and/or placating donors for centrist candidates. And AOC is correct in pointing out Biden's electoral strengths; the part of the Biden coalition that has held up is overrepresented in the most critical EC states. You can go a long way with black voters and educated/older white voters in the Rust Belt.

Too be fair, AOC and most progressives occupy comfortably safe seats; the incentives are different. I get it. It does feel a little dirty, though. Biden does not necessarily deserve this - although if he and his team have been making such comprehensive efforts to conceal Biden's ability to be present in the job, the blame is ultimately in the mirror. I believe it's a self-fulfilling prophecy now. The Biden campaign is mortally wounded. I don't see a path; fair or not, the age thing and fractures within the party are going to sink him if he is on the ballot in November.

I think you ascribe to AOC motives that may not, in reality, be so pure, and to her opponents motives that may not be so uniformly malign.  AOC wants power just like everyone else in Washington.  She clearly thinks it is to her advantage to have Biden in the White House rather than Harris, and in that I suspect she may be correct.  And to your point, she has no real downside.  Her seat will be one of the last 20 to fall to the GQP.  

As to "deserve," well--deserve's got nothing to do with it.  But if you want to talk about who deserves what, then yeah--Biden's team does deserve this.  Because Biden's team hid his condition from the public--and from the Democratic Party--for untold months.  This present kerfuffle is the natural consequence of their dishonesty.

And for his part, Biden doesn't get harmed by standing down.  He goes down in history as one of the most consequential presidents of the post-war era.  And friendly biographers will certainly ascribe his decision as being for the good of the country--the final sacrifice of a patriot.  His legacy would only be enhanced.  It'd be far better than losing, which seems a near-certainty if he doesn't withdraw.

[dcbc 14487]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Yep, we are full on coaching search thread now 

Alright.  Let's fire up the Bonanzas and see what Flight Aware has to say.

[Zonahorn 8079]

1 minute ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Apologies, did not realize we were living in different realities.  Could have saved a lot of time in this back and forth.  Carry on.

Do you trust what the media is saying?

1 minute ago, Red Five said:

Of course they support him, but all four of those people want him to drop out.

Unless they directly say it, the media suggesting that isn’t worth the paper it gets printed on.

[Red Five 40859]

1 minute ago, Zonahorn said:

Do you trust what the media is saying?

Unless they directly say it, the media suggesting that isn’t worth the paper it gets printed on.

Those leaks don't happen unless those people want them to happen. See the very carefully worded Obama one.

If they were just all fabricated, you would see 100% forceful denials. As opposed to Pelosi saying "We just want Joe to make a decision." 

[Js1 85353]

36 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Nate Silver is legitimately a very good modeler/forecaster but he has some really out-there takes sometimes.

Nate Silver has been hired by PolyMarket (crypto-based betting market), which is owned by Peter Thiel

[Chuckie Finster 22694]

1 minute ago, Zonahorn said:

Do you trust what the media is saying?

I trust that there is absolutely no way in hell prominent Democrats like Adam Schiff and Jamie Raskin make their statements without the blessing of leadership.  

[Zonahorn 8079]

Look at this shit:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/a-ticket-we-can-win-on-jeffries-reverses-course-on-biden-ouster-calls/ar-BB1qiafa?ocid=BingNewsVerp

Quote

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries — the top Democrat in the House — backed the Biden-Harris presidential ticket in a radio interview, publicly reversing position from his private stance that Biden ought to exit the race.

“President Biden, as I've said repeatedly, is our nominee,” Jeffries said in an interview with WNYC’s Brian Lehrer. “He is one of the most accomplished American presidents in our history and he has the vision, I believe the ability, the capacity, and the track record to make a case to the American people that will result in us being successful in November.”

He publicly reversed his private position, and it was definitely his private position, trust me bro

[Js1 85353]

[dcbc 14487]

5 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

See, you're gonna get the worst of all worlds.

By this point, the Dems have done so much self-harm to their elected (that's right, the primary voters voted for him) candidate that he's so damaged that the prophecy is self-fulfilling: now, the only smart move is for him to drop out.

BUT....he isn't going to drop out.  So, against Donald Trump, we're going to run a candidate that we ourselves have completely undermined and destroyed.  Well-done, opposition party, well done.  Was the "shoot your own dick CLEAN OFF" package not available?

This, all day.  At this rate, we're going to be going into November with "Joe Can't Win" yard signs and t-shirts.

[tx 3 putt 76980]

The orange dumbass gives the worst / most unhinged presidential acceptance speech of all time and a monster IT outage hits the next day 🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔

 

the Trump story has been buried. now I’m curious if this outage has any North Korea ties 

Edited July 19 by tx 3 putt

[wildcat09 29354]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Nate Silver has been hired by PolyMarket (crypto-based betting market), which is owned by Peter Thiel

Didn't Nate also really fuck up his 2022 forecasts because he kept including garbage GOP push polls? 

[Dnaguy 11970]

54 minutes ago, Dutchrudder said:

Harris polls really well with younger voters, blacks, Latinos, and people who hate both Trump/Biden. She really should be the obvious choice here, and the Democrats would immediately make many of those battleground states tossups at the very least. It would become "The Prosecutor vs The Felon", and that's a pretty snazzy campaign phase that even the dullest of minds out there can understand. She doesn't have anywhere near the immense amount of baggage that Hillary carried with her into the 2016 campaign, and she should have a few months to make her case for America. I doubt Trump debates her though, but that may work in her favor. 

Prosecutor vs Felon

east vs west

White vs black

Women vs Man

Immigrant parents vs Rich slumlord parents

Reality TV vs Government worker

 

Lots of contrasts.

[Goredho 17408]

1 hour ago, Zonahorn said:

Joe isn’t dropping out

So your telling me he could drop dead?

 

[Chuckie Finster 22694]

9 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

Look at this shit:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/a-ticket-we-can-win-on-jeffries-reverses-course-on-biden-ouster-calls/ar-BB1qiafa?ocid=BingNewsVerp

He publicly reversed his private position, and it was definitely his private position, trust me bro

Just curious, but does anything stick out to you about this quote?  “The ticket that exists right now is a ticket that we can win on."

Because something certainly sticks out to me.

Again, ELEVEN congresspeople have come out against Biden publicly today.  That does NOT happen without blessings from above, period.

Edited July 19 by Chuckie Finster

[tx 3 putt 76980]

Trump needs to be asked if he’ll sign a nationwide abortion ban, by passing state rights ….

 

[wildcat09 29354]

7 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Just curious, but does anything stick out to you about this quote?  “The ticket that exists right now is a ticket that we can win on."

Because something certainly sticks out to me.

Again, ELEVEN congresspeople have come out against Biden publicly today.  That does NOT happen without blessings from above, period.

In the Democratic party it sure fucking can.

[bolverk 29683]

5 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Trump needs to be asked if he’ll sign a nationwide abortion ban, by passing state rights ….

 

It's always been about controlling and punishing women.

[tx 3 putt 76980]

1 minute ago, bolverk said:

It's always been about controlling and punishing women.

little hussies out there just throwing it around !!!!